Shake Shack (NYSE:SHAK) Q3 2025 Earnings Call October 30, 2025 08:00 AM ET Speaker1Greetings. Welcome to Shake Shack's third quarter 2025 earnings call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. A question and answer session will follow the formal presentation. If anyone should require operator assistance during the conference, please press Star 0 on your telephone keypad. Please note this conference is being recorded. I will now turn the conference over to Allison Sternberg, Head of Investo ...

The fast-casual burger chain reported a higher net income of $12.5 million, compared with a loss of $10.2 million in the same quarter a year ago. ...

NEW YORK, NY (Business Wire) — October 30, 2025 — Shake Shack Inc. ("Shake Shack" or the "Company") (NYSE: SHAK) has posted its results for the third quarter of 2025 in a Shareholder Letter in the Quarterly Results section of the Company's Investor Relations website, which can be found here: Q3 2025 Shake Shack Shareholder Letter. Shake Shack will host a conference call at 8:00 a.m. ET. Hosting the call will be Robert Lynch, Chief Executive Officer, and Katherine Fogertey, Chief Financial Officer. The confe ...

Industry Overview - The restaurant industry is facing a complex operating environment marked by changing consumer behavior, ongoing inflation, and supply chain issues [1][4] - Strategic actions such as digital transformation, operational optimization, and menu innovation are expected to support sector performance in Q3 [1][9] Growth Initiatives - Growth strategies include leveraging digital platforms, enhancing delivery options, and expanding physical locations in urban and suburban areas [2] - Restaurants are utilizing loyalty programs and tailored marketing to increase customer engagement and frequency of visits [2][3] - New limited-time offerings and product extensions are likely driving transaction momentum, especially in quick-service and fast-casual formats [2] Pricing and Cost Management - Operators are employing balanced pricing and promotional strategies to maintain customer traffic while protecting profitability [3] - Adoption of kitchen technology and data analytics is expected to improve efficiency and offset rising costs [3] - Enhancements in value perception through portion optimization and bundled meals are likely strengthening brand loyalty [3] Macroeconomic Challenges - The industry continues to face macroeconomic headwinds, including high beef and seafood costs, tariff uncertainties, and labor inflation impacting margins [4] - A cautious consumer environment, particularly among value-oriented households, is influencing discretionary spending on dining out [4] Earnings Outlook - The Zacks Retail-Wholesale sector is projected to see a 5.3% year-over-year increase in total earnings for Q3 2025, down from a 12.9% rise in Q2 [6][9] - Revenue growth for the sector is expected to be 5.6% year-over-year, compared to 6.1% in the previous quarter [6] Company-Specific Insights - Shake Shack's Q3 performance is anticipated to benefit from traffic-driven growth, menu innovation, and operational efficiency, with revenues estimated at $363.5 million, a 14.7% increase year-over-year [10][12] - Restaurant Brands is expected to show strong momentum due to operational improvements and strategic investments, with revenues projected at $2.39 billion, a 4.3% increase year-over-year [13][15] - BJ's Restaurants is likely to see revenue growth of 3% year-over-year, with an estimated $335.6 million in revenues, driven by menu innovation and operational efficiency [16][18]

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Carillon Tower Advisers, an investment management company, released its “Carillon Eagle Small Cap Growth Fund” third-quarter 2025 investor letter. A copy of the letter can be downloaded here. Equity markets sustained their upward rally from April’s lows, driven by AI acceleration, reduced inflationary impacts from tariffs, and prospects for further interest rate cuts from the U.S. Federal Reserve. Small-cap stocks mirrored the rally by extending the momentum in the quarter. The Russell 2000® Growth Index wa ...

Core Viewpoint - Shake Shack Inc (NYSE: SHAK) is experiencing pressure in the consumer sector, which is affecting its performance, but long-term investors believe the company will eventually rebound and surprise positively [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - Shake Shack has been added to JPMorgan's top short ideas list, indicating bearish sentiment from some analysts [1]. - Despite challenges in the consumer staples sector, Shake Shack has outperformed major competitors like Chipotle and McDonald's in Q1 results [2]. - The company is benefiting from recent menu innovations, marketing investments, and operational initiatives, which are driving returns on investments [2]. Group 2: Investment Sentiment - Long-term investors, including Josh Brown, express confidence in Shake Shack's potential for recovery and growth, viewing current pressures as temporary [1]. - The Madison Small Cap Fund considers Shake Shack a core investment position, highlighting its long-term growth prospects despite taking some profits [2]. - There is a belief that while Shake Shack has potential, certain AI stocks may offer greater returns with limited downside risk [2].

Core Insights - Shake Shack reported record revenue of $356 million in Q2 2025, exceeding analyst expectations of $354 million, with adjusted earnings of $0.44 per share compared to the consensus of $0.38 per share [1] - The company experienced a same-store sales growth of 1.8%, which fell short of the expected 2%, leading to a significant drop in share price by nearly 15% on the earnings report day [2] - Despite the disappointing share performance, Shake Shack's net income grew by 77% last quarter, indicating strong underlying business performance [4] Financial Performance - Shake Shack's revenue grew by 12.6% year over year, and the company added 63 stores, marking an 11.5% increase in store count [1] - The company has raised menu prices multiple times, including a 3% increase in the most recent quarter, contributing to revenue growth that has nearly doubled since Q1 2022 [8] - Shake Shack's restaurant-level profit margin increased by 190 basis points to 23.9%, significantly higher than the average fast-casual dining sector margin of 6% to 9% [13] Expansion Plans - Management announced plans to operate or license 1,500 stores, a significant increase from the 330 stores currently open, with 80 to 90 new locations planned for this year [11] - The current rate of store openings is the fastest in the company's 21-year history, indicating strong growth potential [12] Market Position and Valuation - Shake Shack's stock is currently trading at a price-to-earnings ratio just shy of 200, compared to 28 for the S&P 500, suggesting a high valuation [15] - The company is guiding for 20 to 25 new restaurant openings and 14% revenue growth for the third quarter, with low-single-digit same-store sales growth expected [16] Customer Loyalty - Shake Shack has demonstrated strong customer loyalty, being recognized as having the most loyal customer base among fast-casual dining chains [9] - This loyalty is crucial for the company's pricing power, allowing it to raise prices without losing customers [8]

Core Insights - Shake Shack Inc. (SHAK) is benefiting from strategic initiatives, menu innovation, and global store expansion while focusing on profitability [1] - The company is optimistic about its licensing segment, supported by strong global partnerships and growth opportunities [1] - Shake Shack is investing in data and guest recognition tools to enhance personalized marketing strategies, aiming to boost customer engagement [1] Financial Performance - SHAK's shares have risen 8.8% over the past six months, outperforming the Zacks Retail - Restaurants industry's 8.5% decline [2] - Earnings per share (EPS) exceeded the Zacks Consensus Estimate in three of the last four quarters, with an average surprise of 8.9% [2] - The fiscal 2025 EPS estimate has been revised downward to $1.38 from $1.40, reflecting ongoing cost pressures and macroeconomic uncertainties [3] Growth Drivers - Shake Shack aims to enhance brand awareness and customer loyalty, with 18 consecutive quarters of positive same-store sales growth [5] - The company opened 13 new domestic company-operated Shacks in Q2 2025, with plans to open 45 to 50 Shacks in 2025, marking the largest development class in its history [9] - Shake Shack's licensing segment performed well, with nine new openings and two new partnerships announced for expansion in U.S. casinos and Panama [10] Menu Innovation - Shake Shack emphasizes culinary innovation, introducing new items like summer barbecue offerings and cocktails to enhance guest experiences [11][12] - The introduction of combo meals is seen as essential for drive-thru success, and the company launched its first Shack featuring a full lineup of cocktails [12] Marketing Strategy - Shake Shack is expanding its marketing approach with paid media campaigns to boost app adoption and engagement [13][14] - The focus on product-driven marketing aims to promote steady, long-term traffic growth and improve operating leverage [14] Challenges - The fast-casual dining sector is highly competitive, requiring continuous digital innovation and personalized offerings to maintain market position [15] - Inflationary pressures, particularly rising beef costs, are impacting profitability, with food and paper costs rising to 28.2% of Shack sales [16]

Group 1 - JPMorgan's analysts provided a list of 27 stocks as potential short-selling opportunities, including a major airline and a burger chain [2][9] - Short-selling is a strategy for investors who believe that certain stocks are likely to decline in value [3] - Southwest Airlines (LUV) has seen a 7% decline in stock price this year, contrasting with the S&P 500's 12% increase [3][4] Group 2 - Analysts expressed concerns about Southwest Airlines' stock valuation despite promising demand trends and ambitious fourth-quarter guidance [4] - Shake Shack (SHAK) has lost approximately one-third of its value this year, with high menu prices potentially limiting growth opportunities [4][5] - Bumble (BMBL) shares have fallen nearly 40% in 2025, with worries about declining app usage and marketing expenditures impacting margins [5][6] Group 3 - Rivian (RIVN) stock is down nearly 4% this year, with expectations that the expiration of federal EV tax credits will negatively affect demand [6][7] - Other companies highlighted include Krispy Kreme (DNUT), facing balance-sheet issues, and Travelers (TRV), which has overly optimistic consensus estimates [8] - Snap (SNAP) is expected to struggle against competitors using AI more effectively, while Mobileye Global (MBLY) has a premium valuation not supported by revenue growth expectations [8]