文 | 钱钱 编辑 | 阿景 今年还没过完，中国外贸就交出了份让人没想到的成绩单，前11个月贸易顺差冲到1.076万亿美元，比 去年一整年还多。 说白了，就是咱们卖出去的东西比买进来的多，每天净赚30多亿美元，摊到每个人头上差不多769美 元。 这顺差到底咋来的？对咱们的生活有啥影响？今天就掰开揉碎了聊聊。 出口，从"老三样"到"新三样"，市场也换了赛道 顺差能涨这么快，首先得看出口这头。 前11个月出口总额3.41万亿美元，同比增长6.2%，这速度在全球经济不算景气的时候，确实挺能打。 但仔细看，出口的"朋友圈"和"货架子"都跟以前不一样了。 以前咱们出口可能太依赖美国市场，今年对美出口掉了18.9%，但东盟、欧洲、非洲、拉美这些新兴市 场接上来了，尤其是"一带一路"沿线国家，订单量噌噌涨。 相当于把鸡蛋分开放在不同篮子里，抗风险能力强多了。 更重要的是，咱们卖的东西变了。 以前一提出口就是衣服、鞋子、玩具这些"老三样"，现在新能源汽车、锂电池、光伏产品这"新三样"增 速直接飙到30%，集成电路、高端船舶也卖得不错。 机电产品占出口总值的60.9%，基本上摆脱了靠廉价劳动力吃饭的老路子。 这种升级比单纯的数 ...

Core Insights - The Xiamen garment manufacturing market is experiencing significant growth, driven by a solid industrial foundation and increasing demand from domestic and international brands [1][12] Group 1: Industrial Foundation and Supply Chain - Xiamen's garment industry has developed a complete supply chain from fabric supply to finished garment processing, supported by advanced production equipment and skilled labor [2] - The geographical advantage of Xiamen, being close to ports, enhances logistics efficiency and reduces transportation costs, making it an attractive option for brands [2] Group 2: Demand from Domestic and International Brands - The rise of domestic emerging clothing brands is leading to increased outsourcing of production to reduce costs and risks, with Xiamen factories being preferred partners due to their flexible production models and competitive pricing [4] - International demand for Xiamen's manufacturing capabilities is also growing, particularly from small to medium-sized orders, due to the region's production quality and cost-effectiveness [4] Group 3: Technological Upgrades - Many Xiamen garment factories are investing in technology upgrades, such as automated cutting and smart sewing equipment, which enhance production efficiency and reduce human error [9] - The introduction of digital management systems is optimizing the entire process from order tracking to quality control, thereby increasing customer trust [9] Group 4: Cost Advantages and Challenges - Despite higher labor costs compared to inland regions, Xiamen maintains competitive overall efficiency due to skilled labor and a mature industrial cluster that facilitates easier procurement of raw materials [10] - The rise of Southeast Asian manufacturing markets poses competitive pressure, prompting Xiamen factories to adjust strategies towards higher value-added products and flexible production models [10] Group 5: Environmental and Sustainable Development Trends - The global focus on sustainability is influencing the garment industry, with brands increasingly requiring factories to adopt sustainable production methods [11] - Some Xiamen factories are experimenting with eco-friendly dyes and reducing wastewater emissions, which, while increasing short-term costs, align with long-term industry trends [11] Group 6: Future Outlook - The robust development of Xiamen's garment manufacturing market is attributed to its solid industrial base, efficient supply chain, and growing brand demand, with ongoing technological upgrades and sustainability efforts shaping its future [12]

Core Viewpoint - Shenzhou International is a leading vertically integrated knitwear manufacturer in China, maintaining strong partnerships with premium apparel brands like Nike, Adidas, PUMA, and Uniqlo, which positions the company favorably in the market [1] Group 1: Company Overview - Shenzhou International is recognized as an "invisible champion" in the domestic knitwear manufacturing sector, achieving a vertical integration strategy that enhances operational efficiency [1] - The company has experienced steady revenue growth over the years, with gross margins ranging from 25% to 30%, although recent challenges such as factory shutdowns and rising labor costs have impacted profitability [1] Group 2: Industry Dynamics - In the short term, the apparel industry is transitioning from inventory destocking to a potential replenishment phase as major brands like Nike are expected to see operational improvements, which may lead to increased order volumes for upstream manufacturers [1] - Long-term trends indicate stable growth in downstream apparel consumption, diversification of brands, and an increase in outsourcing by brand owners, which will likely benefit upstream suppliers [1] Group 3: Competitive Advantages - Shenzhou International has shifted its focus to higher-growth segments, particularly in sportswear, which has resulted in a higher concentration of clients and reduced revenue volatility [2] - The company has established a manufacturing system with R&D and high-end production in China and major production bases in Southeast Asia, leveraging labor and tax advantages while enhancing production efficiency through automation [2] Group 4: Investment Outlook - As of September 30, 2025, the company's price-to-earnings ratio (PE_TTM) is projected to decline to 13X, indicating a low valuation compared to historical levels [2] - The company is expected to achieve double-digit revenue growth this year, driven by increased contributions from existing clients like Adidas and Uniqlo, alongside a recovery in Nike's performance [3] - Forecasted net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are estimated at 6.78 billion, 7.72 billion, and 8.76 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 14, 13, and 11X, suggesting potential for valuation recovery [3]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [12]. Core Insights - The company has established a strong vertical integration model, enhancing production efficiency through overseas capacity, specialized factories, and rapid response to large orders. This has resulted in a solid binding with top clients and a leading fabric R&D capability, indicating that the current valuation is low and expected to gradually recover [4][10]. - Revenue is anticipated to grow by double digits this year, driven by increased market share from existing clients like Adidas and Uniqlo, alongside a recovery in Nike's performance and an overall improvement in industry conditions [4][10]. - Profitability is expected to accelerate in the second half of the year, with stable labor costs and tax rates, and a better profit elasticity anticipated next year as Nike recovers [4][10]. Company Overview - The company is recognized as the largest vertically integrated knitwear manufacturer in China, with long-term partnerships with premium brands such as Nike, Adidas, PUMA, and Uniqlo. Its strategic foresight and close collaboration with upstream enterprises have facilitated a comprehensive vertical integration of its business [7][19]. - The company has maintained steady revenue growth over the years, achieving a gross margin of 25-30% due to its product selection and vertical integration, although profit margins have fluctuated recently due to factory shutdowns and rising labor costs [7][33]. Industry Dynamics - In the short term, the apparel industry is transitioning from a destocking phase to a potential recovery, with expectations of improved order volumes as major brands like Nike reach operational turning points [8][40]. - Long-term trends indicate steady growth in downstream apparel consumption, diversification of brands, and an increase in outsourcing by brand owners, which will drive expansion for upstream suppliers [8][40]. - The company has shifted its focus towards the higher-growth and more certain sportswear segment, benefiting from a higher proportion of sports apparel and greater client concentration, which helps mitigate revenue volatility [9][30]. Financial Projections - The company's projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are estimated at 6.78 billion, 7.72 billion, and 8.76 billion respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 9%, 14%, and 13% [10]. - The price-to-earnings ratio (PE) is expected to decrease to 13x by September 2025, indicating a low valuation compared to historical levels [10].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported its Q3 2025 results, showing a steady increase in revenue and a significant improvement in profitability, particularly in Q3, while also expanding its stake in Shanghai Jiale to enhance growth potential [1][2][4]. Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 3.72 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.9%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 280 million yuan, down 13.4% year-on-year [1]. - In Q3 2025, revenue reached 1.29 billion yuan, up 8.2% year-on-year, and net profit attributable to shareholders was 90 million yuan, reflecting a significant year-on-year increase of 25.6% [1]. - The operating cash flow for the first three quarters of 2025 saw a substantial increase, with a net cash flow from operating activities of 430 million yuan, up 259% year-on-year [1]. Profitability and Cost Management - The gross margin for the first three quarters of 2025 was 24.4%, an increase of 1.2 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 7.5%, down 3.1 percentage points year-on-year [1]. - In Q3 2025, the gross margin was 23.8%, up 1.8 percentage points year-on-year, and the net profit margin was 7.0%, an increase of 1.0 percentage point year-on-year [1]. Business Segments - The OEM (Original Equipment Manufacturer) business showed significant growth, with revenue of 2.1 billion yuan in H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 37.2%, driven by strong performance in bag and apparel manufacturing [3]. - The brand operation business generated revenue of 310 million yuan in H1 2025, up 8.9% year-on-year, primarily supported by sales growth from the Xiaomi brand [3]. Strategic Moves - The company completed the acquisition of a 20% stake in Shanghai Jiale for 280 million yuan, increasing its total ownership to 81.2%, which is expected to open new profit avenues [2]. - The company is focusing on expanding its global production capacity in regions like Indonesia and India, enhancing cost advantages and tariff avoidance [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [2][7]. Core Insights - The company reported stable performance in Q3 2025, with a revenue of 3.72 billion yuan for the first three quarters, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 22.9%. However, the net profit attributable to the parent company decreased by 13.4% to 280 million yuan [7][13]. - The company completed the acquisition of a 20% stake in Shanghai Jiale, increasing its total ownership to 81.2%. This strategic move is expected to enhance profit margins and open up new growth avenues [7][6]. - The company is focusing on expanding its production capacity in Indonesia and India, which is anticipated to improve cost advantages and mitigate tariff impacts [7]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue for 2025 is projected at 5.31 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 25.3%. The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 367 million yuan, reflecting a slight decrease of 3.6% [6][19]. - The gross margin for Q1-Q3 2025 was reported at 24.4%, an increase of 1.2 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 7.5%, down by 3.1 percentage points [7][14]. - The company anticipates a gradual increase in net profit to 558 million yuan by 2027, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 15, 12, and 10 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [6][19].

Core Viewpoint - In September, A-share listed companies continued to implement share buybacks, with 22 companies announcing buyback plans, reflecting their recognition of self-value and commitment to shareholder rights and market confidence [1][2]. Group 1: Buyback Plans and Amounts - A total of 22 companies announced new buyback plans in September, a decrease of 37.14% from 35 in August, with a proposed maximum buyback amount of approximately 3.969 billion yuan, down from 10.007 billion yuan in August [1][2]. - Among the companies, China Jushi announced the highest proposed buyback amount of 880 million yuan, followed by Shougang Co. at 520 million yuan and China International Marine Containers at 500 million yuan [2]. - The buyback amount for Midea Group and CATL exceeded 2 billion yuan each in September, leading the buyback efforts for the month [1][5]. Group 2: Company-Specific Insights - China Jushi's stock price has been on an upward trend since June, with a maximum increase of over 60%, raising questions about the timing of its buyback announcement [2]. - The company stated that the buyback is a response to confidence in future stock prices and a commitment to shareholder interests, with the buyback amount representing about 6% of its liquid funds [2]. - Jian Sheng Group, a leading player in the knitted sportswear industry, announced a second buyback plan for the year, aiming to use 150 million to 300 million yuan for share cancellation [3]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Future Plans - Newpoint Software announced a buyback plan of 30 million to 50 million yuan for employee stock ownership plans, while also changing the purpose of a previous buyback to share cancellation [4]. - Despite a decrease in the number of companies announcing buybacks, the commitment to returning value to investors is evident, with companies like Midea and CATL showing significant buyback amounts [1][5]. - As of the end of September, approximately 379 companies had announced buyback progress, with 137 companies having met or exceeded their minimum buyback amounts [5][11].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company plans to acquire an additional 20% stake in Shanghai Jiale, increasing its total ownership to 81.4%, which is expected to enhance performance in Q4 2025 [2] - The company has announced the early termination of a share reduction plan by its controlling shareholder, which is seen as a positive market signal [2] - The company is expected to experience significant profit growth in Q3 due to improved net margins and accelerated revenue growth in the second half of the year [3] Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 have been adjusted to 52.38 billion, 60.02 billion, and 68.74 billion CNY respectively, down from previous estimates [5] - Net profit forecasts for the same years have been revised to 4.28 billion, 5.73 billion, and 6.92 billion CNY [5] - The earnings per share (EPS) estimates have been adjusted to 1.78, 2.39, and 2.89 CNY for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [5] Business Growth Drivers - The company's 2B bag manufacturing business is projected to achieve double-digit growth in 2025, with net margin recovery expected from improved capacity utilization and reduced foreign exchange impacts [4] - The 2C business is anticipated to benefit from changes in the profit-sharing model with Xiaomi, leading to improved profit margins [4] - The acquisition of Shanghai Jiale opens up a larger market in garment manufacturing, creating a second growth curve for the company [4] Financial Summary - The company reported a revenue of 3,105 million CNY in 2023, with projections of 4,240 million CNY in 2024 and 5,238 million CNY in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 13.3% and 36.6% respectively [7] - The net profit for 2023 was 116 million CNY, with projections of 381 million CNY in 2024 and 428 million CNY in 2025, indicating a significant year-on-year increase of 146.5% and 12.3% respectively [7] - The gross margin is expected to stabilize around 22.9% in 2024 and 22.8% in 2025 [7]

Summary of Shenzhou International Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Shenzhou International - **Industry**: Textile and Apparel Manufacturing Key Points and Arguments 1. **Vertical Integration Model**: Shenzhou International employs a vertical integration model that covers all production stages from fabric manufacturing to garment production, enhancing profitability and responsiveness to customer demands. The delivery cycle has been shortened to 45 days, and in some cases, even 15 days, which significantly improves supply stability, especially during crises [2][6][12] 2. **Southeast Asia Capacity Expansion**: The company has strategically expanded its production capacity in Southeast Asia to benefit from cost and tax advantages, thereby diversifying risks and ensuring stable deliveries. This move addresses rising labor costs in China and aligns with the global textile manufacturing shift towards Southeast Asia [2][8][12] 3. **Partnerships with Leading Brands**: Shenzhou International collaborates deeply with top brands like Nike and Uniqlo to co-develop innovative fabrics, which enhances product value and profitability. The partnerships focus not only on pricing but also on delivery times and quality, creating a win-win situation that accelerates revenue and profit growth [2][9][10] 4. **Financial Performance Trends**: From 2021 to 2023, the company faced challenges such as inventory buildup and pandemic-related restrictions, leading to a decline in net profit and asset turnover rates. The net profit dropped from approximately 22% to around 14%, and the asset turnover rate hit a record low [2][11] 5. **Future Outlook for 2024**: The company anticipates a recovery in profitability and asset turnover in 2024 due to industry restocking and capacity expansion. Shenzhou plans to increase its workforce and invest in new fabric factories, which will enhance overall profitability. The company does not face pressure from clients to share tariff costs, which helps maintain its competitive edge [2][12][15] 6. **Return on Equity (ROE) Analysis**: The ROE of Shenzhou International has varied over different periods, with a notable increase from 26% to 31% between 2008 and 2011 due to improved net profit margins. The company maintained a stable ROE of around 20% from 2012 to 2020, supported by strong capacity and quality client relationships [4][5][14] 7. **Challenges Faced**: The company encountered significant challenges from 2021 to 2023, including inventory pressure and operational disruptions due to the pandemic. These factors adversely affected profitability and operational efficiency [11][12] 8. **Current Financial Status**: The latest half-year report indicates significant revenue growth, although gross margins have been impacted by rising employee compensation. The company remains optimistic about continued revenue growth and potential margin recovery in the latter half of the year [15] Additional Important Insights - **Industry ROE Characteristics**: The apparel manufacturing industry exhibits significant ROE differences across various segments, with yarn production showing low profitability and turnover, while fabric production has high profitability but low turnover. Shenzhou's vertical integration allows it to achieve high profitability with lower turnover, placing it among the industry's top performers [13][14] - **Investment Confidence**: Shenzhou International's ongoing investments in capacity expansion and new facilities reflect its confidence in future growth, with a projected net profit of approximately 6.66 billion yuan for the year, corresponding to a PE ratio of about 12, indicating a safety margin in valuation [15]

Group 1 - The company achieved a revenue growth of 15.3% in the first half of the year, exceeding market expectations despite a challenging trade environment and weak domestic apparel consumption [1] - The revenue growth is primarily attributed to an increase in market share among major clients in the sports and leisure brand segments, with sales growth rates for the top four clients reaching 27%, 6%, 28%, and 15% respectively [1] - Although the gross margin declined by 1.9 percentage points year-on-year due to rising labor costs, the company still managed to achieve an 8.4% growth in net profit attributable to shareholders, supported by rapid revenue growth, effective cost control, and increased government subsidies and foreign exchange gains [1] Group 2 - The company is recognized as a leading global manufacturer in the sports apparel sector, with core competencies in globalized and integrated forward-looking layouts, as well as strong manufacturing, research, and management capabilities [2] - The company continues to expand and upgrade its integrated production capacity in Vietnam, Cambodia, and domestically, reinforcing confidence in its long-term sustainable growth [2] - Earnings forecasts for 2025-2027 have been slightly adjusted, with expected earnings per share of 4.37, 4.88, and 5.60 yuan respectively, and a DCF target valuation of 85.09 HKD [2]