丨证券研究报告丨 港股研究丨公司点评丨晶苑国际（2232.HK） [Table_Title] 晶苑国际 2025H1 点评：弱市兑现较优成长，利 润率持续扩张可期 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 展望：收入端，品类多元&供应链优势实现核心客户份额深化+运动次新客户提份额，有望中短 期内维持较优订单增速；利润端，订单结构优化&一体化&自动化预计带来盈利改善，伴随成长 性兑现估值有望持续提升。预计公司 2025-2027 年实现归母净利润 2.3、2.6、3.0 亿美元，同 比+16%/+14%/+13%，对应 PE 为 11、9、8X，60%分红比例假设下 2025 年股息率达 5.5%， 维持"买入"评级。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 于旭辉 魏杏梓 SAC：S0490518020002 SAC：S0490524020003 SFC：BUU942 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 晶苑国际（2232.HK） cjzqdt11111 [Table_Title 晶苑国际 2025H1 2] 点评：弱市兑现较优成长，利 润率持 ...

产能持续扩张承接订单增长。2024 年公司员工数量同增1 万人，2025H1公司生产基地新聘约4000 名员 工以提升产能。预计公司2025 及2026 年维持稳健的产能扩张节奏。此外，公司已进行欧洲地区产能布 局考察，后续有望进行布局以强化产能多元布局优势。 公司发布2025年中报。2025H1 营业收入同比增长 12.4%至 12.3 亿美元，归母净利润同比增长16.8%至1 亿美元。 机构：东北证券 点评： 研究员：刘家薇/苏浩洋 波动环境下展现增长韧性。2025H1 公司营业收入同比增长12.4%至12.3亿美元。分品类来看，休闲/运 动户外/牛仔/内衣/毛衣收入分别同增11.4%/12.4%/10.3%/9.5%/29.2%至3.4/3.1/2.6/2.1/1 亿美元，占比分 别为27.6%/25.5%/21.3%/17.1%/8.5%；分地区来看，亚太/北美洲/欧洲/其它地区收入分别同比增长 14.5%/11.7%/9.7%/14.9%至4.8/4.6/2.5/0.4 亿美元。 事件： 在对等关税等因素扰动下，核心客户份额持续提升，运动客户订单增速领先，驱动公司营收实现稳健增 长。 投资建议：晶苑 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company, Viginie, has shown a recovery in its fiscal year 2025 performance, with an 11.7% increase in revenue to HKD 7.84 billion, despite challenges from macroeconomic fluctuations and uneven consumer recovery [1] Group 1: Business Performance - The intimate apparel segment generated revenue of HKD 4.243 billion, a modest increase of 3.0% year-on-year, accounting for 54.2% of total revenue, with a gross margin improvement of 1.0 percentage points to 24.7% [3] - The sports products segment emerged as a growth highlight, with revenue of HKD 2.934 billion, a significant increase of 26.9% year-on-year, representing 37.4% of total revenue, driven by a global sports trend and strong demand for sports bras [3] - The consumer electronics accessories segment, although smaller, saw robust growth with revenue of HKD 409 million, a substantial increase of 43.2% year-on-year, primarily driven by new product orders from core brand partners [3] Group 2: Operational Optimization - The company is advancing its smart transformation through vertical integration, intelligent management, automation, and localized supply chains to enhance production efficiency and cost control [4] - As of October 2024, the total output value from the Vietnam base accounted for 85% of total revenue, with approximately 31,900 employees in Vietnam compared to about 4,900 in mainland China [4] - The company's China operations generated revenue of HKD 1.966 billion in fiscal year 2025, a 4.4% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of HKD 85.6 million, benefiting from localized innovation and strong e-commerce performance [4] Group 3: Future Outlook - The company faces multiple challenges in fiscal year 2026 due to increased global market uncertainty from trade tariffs, leading to cautious order placements from brand partners [5] - The company is implementing cost-reduction measures across R&D, production, and operations to enhance organizational efficiency and effectiveness [5] - The company aims to leverage its leading Bonding technology to expand its successful cross-category initiatives from intimate apparel to sports and clothing segments, showcasing strong market potential [5]

Core Viewpoint - The financial performance of Kairun Co., Ltd. shows a significant increase in revenue and net profit, driven primarily by a strategic acquisition, yet the company's stock price has declined, indicating potential underlying issues in cash flow and inventory management [1][2][3]. Financial Performance - Kairun Co., Ltd. reported a revenue of 4.24 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 36.6%, and a net profit of 381 million yuan, soaring by 229.5% [2]. - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 1.24 billion yuan, up 35.57%, and a net profit of 85 million yuan, an increase of 20.12% [2]. - The acquisition of Shanghai Jiale was a key driver of this performance, contributing 848 million yuan in revenue and 28 million yuan in net profit in just six months post-acquisition [3]. Acquisition Details - Kairun Co., Ltd. acquired a 15.9% stake in Shanghai Jiale for approximately 200 million yuan, raising its total ownership to 51.85% [2]. - The acquisition allowed Kairun to consolidate Shanghai Jiale's financials, which had previously been a long-term investment [2][3]. - Shanghai Jiale is a core supplier for major brands like Uniqlo, Adidas, and Puma, enhancing Kairun's customer base [2]. Operational Challenges - Despite the impressive growth figures, Kairun's original business growth was insufficient to support the over 200% increase in net profit without the acquisition [4]. - The company faces challenges in cash flow management, with accounts receivable rising by 77.57% to 1.05 billion yuan, significantly outpacing revenue growth [7][9]. - The increase in inventory also poses risks, with stock levels rising by 76.02% to 868 million yuan, leading to a 169% increase in inventory impairment losses [8][9]. Financial Health - Kairun's operating cash flow decreased by 47% year-on-year to 232 million yuan, resulting in a cash flow to net profit ratio of only 0.58, indicating potential liquidity issues [8][9]. - The company has a short-term debt structure, with current liabilities of 1.5 billion yuan against cash reserves of 901 million yuan, raising concerns about its ability to meet short-term obligations [9]. - The acquisition has resulted in a high goodwill of 330 million yuan on the balance sheet, which could be at risk of impairment if Shanghai Jiale does not perform as expected [9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [2] Core Insights - The company achieved record high revenue and net profit in 2024, with revenue reaching 4.24 billion yuan (up 36.6% year-on-year) and net profit of 381 million yuan (up 229.5% year-on-year) [7][19] - The company continues to see strong growth in its OEM business, particularly in the apparel sector, with a significant contribution from the newly consolidated Shanghai Jiale [7] - The strategic value of the company's production capacity in Indonesia is highlighted, with over 70% of its production capacity now located overseas, benefiting from labor cost advantages and tariff avoidance for exports to the U.S. [7] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue is projected to reach 5.31 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 25.2% [5] - The net profit for 2025 is estimated at 381 million yuan, with a slight increase in subsequent years to 460 million yuan in 2026 and 559 million yuan in 2027 [5] - The company plans to distribute a total dividend of 0.337 yuan per share for 2024, representing a payout ratio of 21% [7] Business Segments Performance - The OEM manufacturing segment reported revenue of 3.53 billion yuan in 2024, a 44.6% increase, while the brand management segment saw revenue of 660 million yuan, a 5.1% increase [7] - The gross margin for the OEM business was 22.55%, with the apparel segment showing significant growth but lower margins due to production efficiency ramp-up in Indonesia [7] Valuation and Market Position - The report suggests a target market capitalization of 5.9 billion yuan for 2025, indicating a potential upside of 19% from the current market value [7] - The company is valued at a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 13 for 2025, which is in line with the average PE of comparable manufacturing companies [15]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Company Overview - The company discussed is 开润股份 (Kairun Co.), which operates in the bag and apparel manufacturing industry, focusing on export markets, particularly the United States. Core Insights and Arguments - **Production Capacity in Indonesia**: Kairun has effectively shifted production capacity to Indonesia, mitigating tariff risks from US-China trade tensions, with 60%-65% of bag production and nearly 80% of apparel production based in Indonesia [2][4][7]. - **FOB Cooperation Model**: The company employs a Free on Board (FOB) model, transferring logistics and tariff costs to clients, which alleviates cost pressures and ensures stable supply to the US market [2][4][7]. - **Stability in Client Orders**: The easing of US-China trade negotiations, including tariff suspensions and phase agreements, has stabilized market sentiment, resulting in no significant fluctuations in client orders [2][3][5][9]. - **Demand Resilience**: Despite potential impacts from high tariffs, the phase agreements and protections for essential industries like textiles support ongoing demand for apparel and bags in the US market [2][8]. - **Competitive Advantage of Indonesia**: Major clients like Adidas and Nike are relocating production to Southeast Asia, with Indonesia being favored due to its lower labor costs and favorable economic relations with both the US and China [2][12]. - **Production Efficiency Challenges**: The apparel segment faces lower production efficiency due to insufficient scale of new client orders. The company plans to enhance efficiency by streamlining SKUs and improving supply chain effectiveness [2][16][17][18]. Additional Important Content - **Order Certainty**: The company can ensure order certainty at least until the end of Q3, with clients already forecasting Q4 orders, indicating a high level of overall order certainty for the year [3][10][11]. - **Impact of Trade Negotiations**: Recent trade negotiations have positively influenced client feedback and order stability, with most major clients maintaining consistent purchasing behavior despite some minor fluctuations from smaller clients [9][10]. - **Production Line Efficiency Goals**: The company aims to increase production efficiency in Indonesia from 50% to at least 70%-80% over the next two to three years through various operational improvements [16][19]. - **Market Dynamics**: The Southeast Asian region has initiated a 90-day tariff exemption, which is expected to benefit the textile industry, particularly in Indonesia, by maintaining competitive tariff rates compared to other Southeast Asian countries [13]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, highlighting the company's strategic responses to market challenges and its operational focus moving forward.

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The company's performance is expected to be strong, with significant contributions from the consolidation of Jia Le [5] - The garment manufacturing segment is experiencing revenue growth due to acquisitions and improved production efficiency [2] - The brand management segment is actively expanding new channels, with Xiaomi continuing to launch new products [3] - The company is effectively controlling expenses, with one-time investment gains from Jia Le enhancing profits [4] - Profitability is projected to improve as overseas production efficiency increases, with sustained revenue growth anticipated from 2025 to 2027 [5] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 4.24 billion yuan (up 36.6% year-on-year) and a net profit of 0.381 billion yuan (up 229.5% year-on-year) [1] - For Q1 2025, revenue was 1.234 billion yuan (up 35.6% year-on-year) and net profit was 0.085 billion yuan (up 20.1% year-on-year) [1] Manufacturing Segment - In 2024, the garment manufacturing revenue reached 3.534 billion yuan (up 44.6% year-on-year), with bag manufacturing revenue at 2.372 billion yuan (up 20.3% year-on-year) and garment manufacturing revenue at 1.162 billion yuan (up 146.4% year-on-year) [2] - The gross margin for garment manufacturing was 22.55% (down 1.33 percentage points year-on-year), primarily due to the impact of Jia Le's consolidation [2] Brand Management - Brand management revenue in 2024 was 0.658 billion yuan (up 5.1% year-on-year), with distribution revenue at 0.498 billion yuan (up 20.8% year-on-year) and online revenue at 0.160 billion yuan (down 25.2% year-on-year) [3] - The gross margin for brand management was 25.52% (down 1.03 percentage points year-on-year) [3] Profitability and Forecast - The net profit margin for 2024 was 9.0% (up 5.3 percentage points year-on-year) [4] - Revenue forecasts for 2025 to 2027 are 5.344 billion yuan, 6.222 billion yuan, and 7.190 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 26%, 16%, and 16% [5] - Expected net profit for 2025 to 2027 is 0.384 billion yuan, 0.480 billion yuan, and 0.590 billion yuan, with growth rates of 1%, 25%, and 23% respectively [5]

Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue growth of 37% in 2024, driven by the acquisition of Shanghai Jiale, which contributed both one-time gains and ongoing performance post-consolidation [1] - The main business segments include bag and apparel OEM and brand operations, with OEM accounting for 83% of total revenue in 2024 [1] - The company reported a total revenue of 4.24 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 36.6%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 0.381 billion yuan, up 229.5% year-on-year [1] Financial Performance - In 2024, the company recorded a revenue of 4.24 billion yuan, with a net profit of 0.381 billion yuan, benefiting from the consolidation of Shanghai Jiale, which contributed 0.848 billion yuan in revenue and 0.028 billion yuan in profit for the second half of the year [1] - A one-time gain of 0.096 billion yuan was recognized when control over Shanghai Jiale was obtained, measured at fair value [1] - The overall gross margin decreased by 1.5 percentage points to 22.9% due to the lower margin of Jiale and the impact of consolidation [1] Q4 2024 Performance - In Q4 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 1.215 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 47.9%, and a net profit of 0.060 billion yuan, marking a return to profitability [1] - The non-recurring net profit attributable to shareholders was 0.066 billion yuan, showing significant growth year-on-year [1] Q1 2025 Performance - In Q1 2025, the company continued its high growth trajectory with revenue of 1.234 billion yuan, up 35.6% year-on-year, and a net profit of 0.085 billion yuan, an increase of 20.1% [2] - The gross margin improved slightly by 0.5 percentage points to 24.7%, despite the drag from Jiale's consolidation [2] - The overall expense ratio increased by 1.9 percentage points, leading to a decline in net profit margin by 0.9 percentage points to 6.9% [2] Business Segments - The bag OEM segment generated revenue of 2.372 billion yuan in 2024, a growth of 20.3%, driven by recovery in downstream customer inventory demand and increased orders from key clients like Nike and Decathlon [2] - The apparel OEM segment saw a significant revenue increase of 146.43% to 1.162 billion yuan, primarily due to the consolidation of Shanghai Jiale [2] - The brand business reported revenue of 0.658 billion yuan, a growth of 5.1%, mainly supported by increased income from the Xiaomi brand [2]

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company [4]. Core Views - The company is positioned as a leading manufacturer in the bag industry, leveraging both B2B and B2C business models to drive growth. The B2B segment includes partnerships with renowned brands like Nike and Uniqlo, while the B2C segment focuses on its own brands, "90 Points" and "Xiaomi" [2][8]. - The company anticipates significant revenue growth, with projections of 32.04% in 2024 and 29.82% in 2025, alongside a substantial increase in net profit [8][12]. Financial Forecasts - Revenue (in million yuan): - 2023A: 3104.90 - 2024E: 4099.86 - 2025E: 5322.46 - 2026E: 6099.15 - Revenue Growth Rate (%): - 2023A: 13.28 - 2024E: 32.04 - 2025E: 29.82 - 2026E: 14.59 - Net Profit (in million yuan): - 2023A: 115.62 - 2024E: 390.46 - 2025E: 372.71 - 2026E: 452.66 - EPS (in yuan): - 2024E: 1.63 - 2025E: 1.55 - 2026E: 1.89 - PE Ratio: - 2024E: 13.96 - 2025E: 14.62 - 2026E: 12.04 [3][4][8]. Business Model and Strategy - The company operates under a dual business model, focusing on both B2B and B2C segments. The B2B segment includes OEM and ODM operations, while the B2C segment emphasizes direct sales through its own brands [12][48]. - The company has successfully diversified its operations, expanding from traditional IT bag manufacturing to include sports and leisure bags, as well as garment manufacturing [22][51]. Market Overview - The domestic bag market is experiencing a recovery, with a retail scale of 2349.2 billion yuan in 2023, reflecting a growth of 12.60% compared to 2022. The international market also shows signs of recovery, with a retail scale of 1551.5 billion USD [35][40]. - The report highlights the potential for domestic brands to capture market share, as the current market is dominated by foreign luxury brands [40][41]. Management and Governance - The company's ownership structure is stable, with the founder holding 51.23% of the shares, ensuring strong control and strategic direction [24]. - The management team is experienced, with backgrounds in leading IT companies, which enhances operational efficiency and competitive advantage [24]. Conclusion - The report indicates a positive outlook for the company, driven by robust growth in both B2B and B2C segments, strategic partnerships, and a favorable market environment [2][8][12].