Core Insights - The J.M. Smucker Co. announced the planned retirement of Chief Marketing Officer Gail Hollander, effective April 2026, and will begin the search for her replacement [1] - CEO Mark Smucker praised Hollander's contributions to building a strong marketing organization that has supported the growth of the company's iconic brands [1] - Hollander has been with the company since 2023, following a 20-year career at Publicis Groupe, where she played a key role in enhancing Smucker's brand marketing strategy [1][2] Company Overview - The J.M. Smucker Co. offers a diverse portfolio of brands in North America, leading in categories such as coffee, peanut butter, fruit spreads, and pet food [3] - The company is committed to producing quality products and operating responsibly, aiming to make a positive impact on society while growing its business [3]

Group 1: Company Overview - The J. M. Smucker Company (SJM) is facing challenges entering fiscal 2026, with gross margin pressures due to cost inflation, unfavorable product mix, and soft volumes [1] - In Q4 of fiscal 2025, SJM reported a 9% year-over-year decline in adjusted gross profit and an 8% drop in adjusted operating income, primarily due to higher costs and reduced sales volume [1][8] Group 2: Financial Forecast - SJM expects the fiscal 2026 adjusted gross profit margin to be between 35.5% and 36%, influenced by elevated commodity and manufacturing costs, as well as negative volume/mix [2] - The company anticipates a 3% year-over-year increase in selling, distribution, and administrative expenses in fiscal 2026, driven by higher marketing investments for key growth brands [3] Group 3: Strategic Focus - SJM is focusing on brand investment and operational efficiency to overcome margin pressures, which will require disciplined cost control and sustained consumer demand [4] - The total marketing spend is projected to reach 5.7% of net sales, an increase of 30 basis points from the previous year, aimed at supporting brands like Cafe Bustelo and Uncrustables [3][8] Group 4: Industry Context - SJM's peers, such as Conagra Brands and Lamb Weston, are also managing inflationary pressures and shifting consumer demand, with Conagra facing a 389 basis point decline in adjusted gross margin due to elevated costs [5] - Lamb Weston reported a 9% global volume growth while executing over 30 strategic projects, despite a 5% decline in price/mix due to pricing adjustments [6] Group 5: Stock Performance and Valuation - SJM shares have decreased by 5.5% over the past year, contrasting with the industry's growth of 3.1% [7] - The company trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 11.06X, below the industry average of 16.01X [10]

Core Viewpoint - Johnson Fistel, PLLP is investigating potential violations of securities laws by The J. M. Smucker Company and its executives regarding misrepresentation or failure to disclose material information to investors [1] Group 1: Investigation Details - The investigation is focused on whether The J. M. Smucker Company misrepresented or failed to timely disclose material information to investors [1] - Investors who purchased SJM securities and suffered losses are encouraged to join the investigation [2] - Individuals with relevant nonpublic information are advised to consider assisting the investigation or utilizing the SEC Whistleblower program, which may offer rewards up to 30% of any successful recovery [3] Group 2: About Johnson Fistel, PLLP - Johnson Fistel, PLLP is a nationally recognized shareholder rights law firm with multiple offices across the United States, representing both individual and institutional investors [4] - The firm has been ranked in the Top 10 Plaintiff Law Firms by ISS Securities Class Action Services in 2024, having recovered approximately $90,725,000 for clients in lead or co-lead counsel cases [5]

Core Strategy - The J. M. Smucker Company is focusing on high-growth core categories such as pet food, snacking, and coffee through strategic acquisitions and divestitures [1][5] - The divestiture of Cloverhill and Big Texas brands to JTM Foods highlights the company's commitment to portfolio optimization and resource allocation to enhance the Hostess brand [2][9] Recent Divestitures - The company has exited several non-core businesses, including Voortman (December 2024), Canadian condiments (January 2024), and Sahale Snacks (November 2023), to concentrate on long-term growth drivers [3][9] Acquisitions and Market Position - The acquisition of Hostess Brands in November 2023 significantly expands Smucker's presence in the snacking category, aligning with consumer preferences for convenient treats [4][9] - Previous acquisitions like Ainsworth and Big Heart Pet Brands have strengthened Smucker's position in the premium pet food market, which is experiencing consistent growth [4] Financial Performance - SJM shares have decreased by 4% over the past year, compared to a 6.2% decline in the industry [8] - The company trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 11.14X, below the industry average of 15.98X, indicating potential undervaluation [11] Earnings Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate indicates an 8.3% year-over-year decline in earnings for the current fiscal year, but a 7.7% increase is expected for the next fiscal year [13]

Core Insights - The J. M. Smucker Company (SJM) has experienced a significant decline in its stock price, dropping 12.3% over the past month, which is notably worse than the industry's 1% decline and the S&P 500's 4.1% growth [1][2][8] - The company is facing multiple challenges, including weak sales in its Sweet Baked Snacks segment, rising coffee costs, and declining demand in its pet food category [8][9][10] Stock Performance - As of the last trading session, SJM closed at $98.20, close to its 52-week low of $93.30, reached on June 18, 2025 [5] - The stock is trading below its 50 and 200-day moving averages, indicating bearish sentiment [5] - SJM's forward 12-month P/E ratio is 10.44, below its one-year median of 11.07 and the industry average of 15.85, reflecting a discount compared to peers like Hershey and McCormick [6] Segment Performance - The Sweet Baked Snacks segment, particularly the Hostess brand, reported a 14% decline in comparable sales in Q4 of fiscal 2025 due to sluggish consumer demand and internal distribution issues [9] - The pet food segment saw a 13% decline in net sales, impacted by retailer inventory reductions and weak demand for dog snacks [11] Cost Pressures - The surge in green coffee prices has led to multiple price increases across SJM's coffee portfolio, with risks of volume loss due to demand elasticity [10] - Tariffs on imported green coffee, primarily from Brazil and Vietnam, are adding further margin pressure [12] Earnings Outlook - The company has issued a cautious outlook for fiscal 2026, expecting adjusted earnings between $8.50 and $9.50, with a projected 25% decline in Q1 year-over-year [13] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for EPS has seen downward revisions, with the current quarter's estimate declining by 10 cents to $9.28 per share [14]

Core Viewpoint - The J.M. Smucker Co. is committed to removing FD&C colors from all consumer food products by the end of 2027, impacting several product lines including sugar-free fruit spreads and ice cream toppings [1][2] Group 1: Commitment to Product Reformulation - The majority of the company's consumer foods are already free of FD&C colors, and the removal will also affect certain products from the Hostess® brand portfolio [1] - The company aims to stop selling products with FD&C colors to K-12 schools by the 2026/2027 school year [1] - This decision aligns with the company's ongoing efforts to evolve its product offerings based on consumer preferences, as seen in past changes like removing high-fructose corn syrup from Uncrustables® sandwiches [2][3] Group 2: Leadership Statements - Mark Smucker, CEO, emphasized the company's history of adapting to consumer preferences and the importance of innovation in meeting consumer expectations [2] - John Brase, COO, stated that the decision to remove FD&C colors supports the company's commitment to providing safe, quality, and affordable products [3] Group 3: Company Overview - The J.M. Smucker Co. offers a diverse range of brands across North America, leading in categories such as coffee, peanut butter, and fruit spreads [3] - The company is dedicated to producing quality products and operating responsibly, aiming to grow its business while positively impacting society [3]

Group 1: Market Overview - The relative strength index (RSI) below 30 indicates extreme selling pressure, often signaling a potential buying opportunity for contrarian investors [1] - Three major consumer staples companies are currently showing extremely oversold signals not seen in years, presenting interesting setups for mean reversion [2] Group 2: Molson Coors Beverage Company - Molson Coors Beverage Company has seen its stock price drop over 20% since early April, with an RSI of 19, the lowest since 2018 [3][4] - Analysts have maintained a Buy rating for Molson Coors, with price targets of $65 from Needham & Company and $71 from Roth Capital, indicating nearly 50% upside potential from current levels [4] Group 3: Constellation Brands - Constellation Brands has experienced a 20% decline in the past month, with an RSI of 23, indicating oversold conditions [6][7] - Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway has increased its stake in Constellation Brands to over 6% of available shares, suggesting institutional confidence in the stock [7] Group 4: J.M. Smucker Company - J.M. Smucker Company shares have fallen 15% in just over a week, with an RSI of 29, indicating oversold conditions [9][10] - The stock is currently trading below analyst price targets, with Stifel Nicolaus and Bank of America setting targets at $106 and $105, respectively, while UBS Group has a Buy rating with a $129 target, implying over 30% upside potential [10][11]

Core Insights - The J. M. Smucker Company (SJM) has faced significant challenges in 2025, with its stock down nearly 13% year to date, contrasting with the S&P 500's 1.2% gain and the Zacks Consumer Staples sector's 4.9% growth [1][7] - SJM's stock closed at $95.96, just above its 52-week low of $93.30, and is trading below both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, indicating ongoing weakness in momentum and investor sentiment [4][5] Financial Performance - SJM's U.S. Retail Pet Foods segment saw a 13% year-over-year decline in net sales, attributed to retailer inventory adjustments and reduced demand in the dog snacks category [8] - The Sweet Baked Snacks segment reported a 26% decline in net sales and a 72% drop in segment profit, driven by unfavorable volume/mix and lower net pricing [10] - The company anticipates a 25% decline in Q1 EPS due to ongoing cost pressures, tariffs, and soft demand [7][16] Cost and Margin Challenges - SJM reported a 9% year-over-year decline in adjusted gross profit in Q4 fiscal 2025, primarily due to elevated costs and unfavorable product mix [12] - The company expects adjusted gross profit margin for fiscal 2026 to range between 35.5% and 36%, impacted by elevated commodity costs and tariffs [13] - Selling, distribution, and administrative expenses are projected to rise approximately 3% year over year, driven by increased marketing investments [14] Future Outlook - For fiscal 2026, SJM anticipates a low-single-digit decline in reported net sales, with comparable net sales expected to remain flat [15][16] - The company faces a complex operating environment characterized by tariff impacts, regulatory changes, and shifting consumer behaviors [15]

Raw Material Costs and Price Management - Raw material costs have fluctuated significantly in 2025, driven by elevated commodity and supply chain costs, necessitating potential price adjustments across the business[18] - The company employs futures and fixed-price contracts to manage price volatility for a significant portion of its commodity costs[18] - A hypothetical 10 percent change in market prices related to commodities could result in potential gains or losses in fair value, but actual losses or gains are actively managed[268][270] - The estimated fair value of commodities for the year ended April 30, 2025, was $112.7 million for high, $49.6 million for average, and $20.0 million for low[269] Customer Concentration and Sales - Sales to Walmart accounted for 33% of net sales in both 2025 and 2024, and 34% in 2023, indicating a strong reliance on major customers[24] - The top 10 customers collectively represented approximately 60% of consolidated net sales in 2025, highlighting the concentration of revenue sources[25] - Revenues from customers outside the U.S. represented 4 percent of consolidated net sales during 2025, indicating exposure to foreign currency fluctuations[273] Employee and Workforce Management - The company has over 8,000 full-time employees worldwide, emphasizing the importance of human capital in its operations[35] - The company provided over 27,000 hours of professional development training for employees in 2025[43] - The company achieved a trailing 12-month turnover rate below the industry average, reflecting its commitment to employee retention[42] - The company offers at least three weeks of paid time off, 12 paid holidays, and 12 weeks of parental leave, supporting employee well-being[51] - The company conducts annual pay equity analysis to ensure fair compensation among similarly situated employees[49] Community Engagement and Philanthropy - The company donated over $10 million to more than 100 philanthropic partners, including local food banks and the American Red Cross[39] - The company coordinated an initiative to increase funding from operational sites to local organizations, enhancing community support[40] Environmental Sustainability - The company is committed to environmental sustainability, with public goals related to waste diversion, water usage, and greenhouse gas emissions[34] Safety and Incident Management - The total recordable incident rate achieved by the company was less than half of the national average for industry peers in 2025[44] Financial Management and Risk - A hypothetical 100 basis-point decrease in interest rates would increase the fair value of the company's long-term debt by $563.6 million as of April 30, 2025[266] - The company terminated interest rate contracts for $42.5 million concurrent with the payment of debt assumed from the acquisition of Hostess Brands[264] - Foreign currency exchange risk is primarily related to Canadian currency, with foreign currency denominated assets and liabilities not expected to significantly impact future earnings or cash flows[271] - The company utilizes foreign currency derivatives with maturities of less than one year to manage exchange rate fluctuations, with changes in value immediately recognized in cost of products sold[272] - The company realized a net loss of $4.5 million from reverse treasury locks during the year ended April 30, 2025[263] Product Segmentation - Private label brands held a 15.2% average market share in the U.S. retail market segments for the 52 weeks ended April 20, 2025, up from 13.7% in the previous year[29] - The Sweet Baked Snacks segment experiences moderate seasonality, with declines during the early winter period due to the holiday season[23]

Core Viewpoint - J.M. Smucker's stock has significantly declined following its fourth-quarter fiscal 2025 results and updated fiscal 2026 guidance, presenting a potential buying opportunity due to its high-yield dividend and attractive valuation [1][2]. Financial Performance - Net sales decreased by 3% year over year in Q4, but increased by 7% for the full fiscal year [4] - Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) rose by 2% to $10.12, with fiscal 2026 guidance expecting net sales growth of 2% to 4% and adjusted EPS to decline to between $8.50 and $9.50 [4] - Free cash flow (FCF) for fiscal 2025 was $816.6 million, covering $455.4 million in dividend payments, with expectations for FCF to rise to $875 million in fiscal 2026 [10][11] Pricing Strategy and Market Conditions - The company is facing record-high green coffee production costs, leading to planned price increases in May and August [5][6] - Price increases have been implemented across various product lines, including Uncrustables, which saw its first price hike in over three years [7] - The Sweet Baked Snacks segment, which includes Hostess, has underperformed, with net sales down 26% year over year [9] Dividend Stability - J.M. Smucker has raised its dividend for 29 consecutive years, with a current yield of 4.6% due to the stock sell-off [11] - The company has a free cash flow yield of 6.5%, indicating strong potential to support its dividend payments [12] Valuation Metrics - The forward price-to-FCF ratio is 11.5, and the forward price-to-earnings ratio is 10.5, suggesting the stock is undervalued compared to historical averages [13][14] - The company's market cap has fallen to $10.05 billion, with the Sweet Baked Snacks segment contributing only 12% of total net sales [9] Investment Opportunity - Despite the challenges, J.M. Smucker continues to generate substantial free cash flow and offers a reliable dividend, making it an attractive investment for the second half of 2025 [19]