Core Insights - Smucker (SJM.US) reported a 3% year-over-year decline in Q4 sales to $2.1 billion, falling short of expectations [1] - Non-GAAP EPS was $2.31, exceeding market expectations, compared to $2.66 in the same period last year [1] - Adjusted gross profit decreased by 9% year-over-year [1] Sales Performance - Same-store sales fell by 1%, reflecting a 3% decline in volume/mix, driven by decreased sales in pet snacks, dessert baking products, and fruit spreads, partially offset by increased sales of Uncrustables sandwiches [1] - The U.S. retail coffee business saw an 11% sales increase, while the U.S. retail pet food business experienced a 13% sales decline [1][2] Acquisition Impact - Sales were negatively impacted by the acquisition of Hostess in November 2023, as the company faced poor performance due to reduced consumer spending [1] - CEO Mark Smucker indicated plans to offset rising raw material costs through price increases [1] Pricing and Future Outlook - Same-store sales reflected a 3% increase in net pricing, primarily due to higher coffee prices, while net prices for dessert baking products and pet snacks declined [2] - The company provided a lower-than-expected earnings guidance for the next fiscal year, projecting adjusted EPS between $8.50 and $9.50, with a midpoint of $9.00, compared to the average expectation of $10.25 [2] - Following the earnings announcement, the company's stock price fell approximately 8% in pre-market trading [2]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight," indicating that the growth level of the industry is expected to exceed that of the CSI 300 index in the next six months [64]. Core Insights - The pet economy is identified as a significant trend with strong growth potential, driven by increasing consumer spending on pet food and products. The report highlights the robust performance of domestic pet food brands during promotional events, suggesting a favorable market environment for these companies [7][14]. - In the livestock sector, there has been a notable increase in pig sales, with April sales reaching 7.7705 million heads, a month-on-month increase of 21.38%. The average selling price of pigs also saw a slight increase, indicating a recovery in the market [8][9]. - The report emphasizes the importance of the agricultural sector in ensuring food security, particularly in light of geopolitical tensions affecting global grain supply and demand. It provides forecasts for various crops, including wheat, rice, corn, and soybeans, indicating expected increases in production and consumption [10][11][12]. Summary by Sections Livestock Industry - April pig sales increased to 7.7705 million heads, up 21.38% month-on-month. The average selling price was 14.82 yuan/kg, a 0.60% increase from the previous month [8]. - The report suggests focusing on leading livestock companies such as Muyuan Foods and Wen's Foodstuffs, which have strong growth potential [9]. Pet Industry - The report highlights the strong performance of domestic pet food brands during promotional events, with significant year-on-year growth expected in the pet food market [7][14]. - It recommends monitoring the sales progress of pet brands during promotional periods as a catalyst for the sector [7]. Crop Production - The global wheat supply is projected to increase by 4.9 million tons, reaching 107.37 million tons, with a record production forecast of 808.5 million tons for the 2025/26 season [10]. - The rice production forecast for 2025/26 is set at a record 538.7 million tons, with significant contributions from India and China [11]. - Corn consumption is expected to grow by 2% to a record 1.274 billion tons, driven by increased imports from countries like China and Vietnam [12]. Agricultural Policy and Market Dynamics - The report discusses the ongoing agricultural policies aimed at revitalizing the seed industry and promoting biotechnology, which are expected to enhance industry growth and reshape market dynamics [13]. - It emphasizes the need for strategic responses to global market changes, particularly in the context of trade agreements and international demand for agricultural products [20].

证券研究报告 农林牧渔 行业定期报告 李冉 liran02@huayuanstock.com hyzqdatemark 2025 年 05 月 12 日 投资评级： 看好（维持） 雷轶 SAC：S1350524110001 leiyi@huayuanstock.com 冯佳文 SAC：S1350524120003 fengjiawen@huayuanstock.com 顾超 SAC：S1350524110005 guchao@huayuanstock.com 生猪一季度业绩高增，持续推荐低估 ——农林牧渔行业周报（20250506-20250509） 证券分析师 投资要点： 生猪：猪价短期维持震荡，4 月第三方产能震荡略增。 联系人 板块表现： 短期猪价震荡，关注二育入场情况。本周涌益数据最新猪价为 14.79 元/kg，出栏均 重为 129.71kg，15Kg 仔猪报价 647 元/头，175kg 标肥价差降至 0.38 元/kg。近期 猪价表现强于市场预期，但二育群体进场成本也随之上升，压制补栏情绪，短期猪 价或维持震荡；中长期看全年总体供给偏多，猪价弱势较为确定。产能方面，3 月统 计局全国能繁母猪存栏 ...