I'm a full time value investor and writer who enjoys using classical value ratios to pick my portfolio. My previous working background is in private credit and CRE mezzanine financing for a family office. I'm also a fluent Mandarin speaker in both business and court settings, previously serving as a court interpreter. I have spent a good chunk of my adult working life in China and Asia. I have worked with top CRE developers in the past including The Witkoff Group , Kushner Companies, Durst Organization and ...

(责任编辑：宋政 HN002) 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不对所包含内容 的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担全部责任。邮箱： news_center@staff.hexun.com 格隆汇8月6日｜超微电脑(SMCI.US)盘前大跌超17%，报47.5美元。消息面上，超微电脑第四财季营收 57.6亿美元同比增长7.5%，低于分析师预期的60.1亿美元；调整后每股收益0.41美元，亦低于预期的 0.44美元。展望方面，公司预计2026财年首财季营收将介于60亿至70亿美元之间，调整后每股盈利将介 于0.4至0.52美元之间，分别低于分析师平均预期的65.9亿美元和0.59美元。 另外，公司将2026财年营收预期从此前的400亿美元大幅砍至330亿美元。彭博智库分析师Woo Jin Ho表 示，这一展望暗示着高度竞争的定价环境，特别是来自戴尔的竞争，引发市场担忧超微电脑市场份额可 能不断被侵蚀。(格隆汇) ...

Core Viewpoint - Super Micro Computer (SMCI.US) experienced a pre-market drop of over 17%, trading at $47.5, following disappointing financial results and lowered revenue forecasts [1]. Financial Performance - For the fourth fiscal quarter, the company reported revenue of $5.76 billion, a year-over-year increase of 7.5%, but below analyst expectations of $6.01 billion [1]. - Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) were $0.41, also falling short of the anticipated $0.44 [1]. Future Outlook - The company projects first-quarter revenue for fiscal year 2026 to be between $6 billion and $7 billion, with adjusted EPS expected to range from $0.40 to $0.52, both below analyst averages of $6.59 billion and $0.59, respectively [1]. - Additionally, the revenue forecast for fiscal year 2026 has been significantly reduced from $40 billion to $33 billion [1]. Competitive Environment - Analyst Woo Jin Ho from Bloomberg Intelligence indicated that the outlook suggests a highly competitive pricing environment, particularly due to competition from Dell, raising concerns about potential erosion of Super Micro Computer's market share [1].

另外，公司将2026财年营收预期从此前的400亿美元大幅砍至330亿美元。彭博智库分析师Woo Jin Ho表 示，这一展望暗示着高度竞争的定价环境，特别是来自戴尔的竞争，引发市场担忧超微电脑市场份额可 能不断被侵蚀。(格隆汇) 超微电脑(SMCI.US)盘前大跌超17%，报47.5美元。消息面上，超微电脑第四财季营收57.6亿美元同比增 长7.5%，低于分析师预期的60.1亿美元；调整后每股收益0.41美元，亦低于预期的0.44美元。展望方 面，公司预计2026财年首财季营收将介于60亿至70亿美元之间，调整后每股盈利将介于0.4至0.52美元之 间，分别低于分析师平均预期的65.9亿美元和0.59美元。 ...

Group 1 - Angelalign (06699) opened nearly 19% higher after a positive earnings forecast, driven by strategic price adjustments in its core Chinese business and continued growth in revenue outside China [1] - Songjing Technology (01079) resumed trading with an opening increase of over 40% [1] - Jingtai Holdings (02228) opened more than 9% higher after announcing a significant partnership with DoveTree, valued at approximately HKD 47 billion (USD 5.99 billion) for AI pharmaceutical development [1] Group 2 - Shunmei Co., Ltd. (02145) saw an early morning increase of over 5%, projecting a revenue of RMB 4.09 billion to RMB 4.11 billion for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year growth of 16.8%-17.3% [2] - Nine Dragons Paper (02689) rose over 10% following the successful commissioning of its PM56 production line, which can produce 250,000 tons of high-grade cultural paper annually [2] Group 3 - Giant Star Legend (06683) increased over 1% after announcing a collaboration with Jiushi Wen Chuan for a large-scale IP and cultural tourism project in Shanghai [3] - South Manganese Industry (01091) surged over 15%, expecting to turn a profit of at least HKD 150 million in the first half of 2025, compared to a loss of HKD 162.8 million in the same period of 2024 [3] Group 4 - China Shenhua (01088) rose over 3% after announcing plans to acquire significant assets from its controlling shareholder, which would enhance its coal production capacity by 74.5% [4] - Boya Interactive (00434) fell over 6% due to a profit warning, expecting a decrease of approximately 25%-35% in profit for the first half of 2025 compared to the same period in 2024 [4] Group 5 - Wuling Motors (00305) increased over 9% after announcing a projected net profit of approximately RMB 84 million for the first half of 2025, a significant increase from RMB 21.125 million in the same period of 2024 [5] Group 6 - Hims & Hers Health (HIMS.US) dropped 12.36% after reporting second-quarter sales of USD 545 million, below market expectations [6] - Palantir (PLTR.US) rose 7.85% after reporting second-quarter revenue of over USD 1 billion, a 48% year-on-year increase [6] Group 7 - Futu Holdings (FUTU.US) increased by 2.82% after UBS raised its target price, citing strong expected performance in the second quarter [7] - Daqo New Energy (DQ.US) rose 3.68% as market signals indicated positive changes in the photovoltaic polysilicon sector [7] Group 8 - Li Auto (LI.US) saw a slight increase in stock price after announcing adjustments to its electric vehicle model pricing [8] - Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX.US) fell 20.60% after failing to meet key endpoints in a clinical trial [8] Group 9 - Chinese gaming stocks collectively rose, with Bilibili (BILI.US) up 2.07% following a report indicating a 14.08% year-on-year increase in the domestic gaming market [9] Group 10 - Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSM.US) fell 2.70% amid reports of a potential technology leak involving its 2nm chip process [9] - Advanced Micro Devices (AMD.US) decreased by 1.40% despite reporting a 32% year-on-year revenue increase for the second quarter [10]

Core Viewpoint - The unexpected downward revision of sales forecasts by Super Micro Computer (SMCI.US) has raised concerns about the competitive landscape in the AI server market, leading to a significant drop in its stock price after previously experiencing an 88% increase this year, outperforming major indices and competitors like Nvidia [1][3][8] Group 1: Performance and Forecasts - Super Micro Computer's stock fell over 17% in after-hours trading following the announcement of its quarterly performance, which showed a 7.5% increase in sales to $5.76 billion, but fell short of Wall Street's expectations [6] - The company revised its fiscal year sales forecast to at least $33 billion, down from an earlier optimistic projection of $40 billion, reflecting a significant reduction in expected demand for AI servers [3][5] - The management's profit forecast for the quarter ending in September indicated an operating margin of only 5%, compared to the Wall Street average expectation of 10%, highlighting ongoing competitive pressures in the AI server market [3][6] Group 2: Market Dynamics and Competition - The AI server market is experiencing intense competition, particularly from Dell and HPE, which have been able to increase their profit forecasts while Super Micro Computer has struggled [3][4] - Analysts predict that major tech companies like Google, Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon will spend over $350 billion on AI infrastructure this year, indicating a growing market but also increasing competition for Super Micro Computer [4] - The CEO of Super Micro Computer noted that some customers are waiting for new products equipped with the latest Nvidia AI chips, which has negatively impacted demand for existing products [7] Group 3: Investor Sentiment and Valuation Concerns - The unexpected performance of Super Micro Computer has led to concerns that it may signal a broader issue of overvaluation among AI-related stocks, as not all companies in the AI infrastructure space are achieving strong growth [8] - The stock's previous rise was largely driven by investor optimism regarding AI server demand, but the recent earnings report has raised doubts about the sustainability of this growth [8][9] - Analysts have expressed concerns that Super Micro Computer's market share may continue to be eroded as customers become more selective and turn to competitors like Dell and HPE [7][9]

Summary of Super Micro Computer Inc. (SMCI) Earnings Call Company Overview - **Company**: Super Micro Computer Inc. (SMCI) - **Industry**: AI server and storage systems Key Financial Metrics - **F4Q25 Revenue**: $5.76 billion, missing the consensus estimate of $5.98 billion [1][6] - **Gross Margins**: 9.6%, below the expected 10% [1][6] - **F1Q26 EPS Guidance**: $0.40-$0.52, missing the consensus of $0.59 [1][3] - **F2026 Sales Outlook**: At least $33 billion [1][4] Core Insights - **Earnings Miss**: SMCI's F4Q25 EPS of $0.41 missed the consensus of $0.44-$0.45, indicating a revenue and margin miss [2][6] - **Revenue Breakdown**: - Server & storage systems: $5.62 billion, down 3% YoY - Subsystems & accessories: $139 million, down 38% YoY [7][8] - **Operating Income**: Non-GAAP operating income of $312 million, missing estimates of $357 million [6][8] Competitive Landscape - **Market Dynamics**: The company is facing intensified competition in the AI server market, which is becoming increasingly commoditized [1][10] - **Customer Delays**: Continued delays in customer platform decisions are impacting revenue [1] Additional Considerations - **Stock-Based Compensation**: Approximately $69 million in stock-based compensation was reported, netting a tax effect of $20 million excluded from non-GAAP net income [3] - **Investment Rating**: Goldman Sachs has a "Sell" rating on SMCI with a 12-month target price of $24, reflecting a potential downside of 58.8% from the current price of $58.23 [9][13] Risks and Opportunities - **Upside Risks**: Stronger-than-expected demand for AI servers, market share gains, core operating margin improvement, and customer diversification are potential upside risks [9] - **Long-term Outlook**: While SMCI has established partnerships with key AI component suppliers like NVIDIA and AMD, the competitive landscape poses risks to profitability [10]

Group 1 - The focus has shifted from primarily tech stocks to include offshore drilling, supply industry, and shipping sectors such as tankers, containers, and dry bulk [1] - There is an emerging interest in the fuel cell industry, which is still in its nascent stage [1] Group 2 - The individual has a background in auditing with PricewaterhouseCoopers and transitioned to day trading nearly 20 years ago [2] - The experience includes navigating significant market events such as the dotcom bubble, the aftermath of the World Trade Center attacks, and the subprime crisis [2]

该公司于美东时间周二公布的业绩展望显示，预计截至2026年6月的财年总销售额将至少达到330亿美元。然而作为对比，在今年2月，超微电脑管理层在 当时因AI服务器产品线需求强劲而给出非常乐观的长期展望，称财年销售额将达到400亿美元，当时几乎是华尔街分析师们对财年预估值的两倍，因此本 次发布财报是下修业绩预期引发股票市场剧烈抛售。 此外，超微电脑管理层对于截至9月季度的利润预测意味着营业利润率仅仅为5%，不及华尔街平均预期的10%利润率，凸显出AI服务器领域激烈竞争持续 吞噬利润率。 超微电脑的AI服务器市场份额遭重大侵蚀? 由于投资者押注市场对其AI服务器和液冷服务器集群解决方案的强劲需求，超微电脑股价今年迄今已上涨88%，市场自今年以来乐观地认为该AI服务器 制造商将大幅受益于美国大型科技巨头们对于AI算力基础设施设备的愈发旺盛需求。 今年以来股价疯狂飙升88%，大幅跑赢纳斯达克100指数与标普500指数乃至"AI芯片霸主"英伟达的全球最大规模AI服务器制造商之一超微电脑(SMCI.US) 在下调其财年销售额预测，以及公布不及市场预期的整体季度业绩与季度利润预测后股价盘后暴跌超17%。 华尔街分析师们长期以 ...

格隆汇8月6日｜超微电脑（SMCI.US）盘后大跌近16%。超微电脑第四财季净销售57.6亿美元，分析师 预期60.1亿美元；第四财季毛利润率9.6%，分析师预期10%；调整后每股收益41美分，预期为44美分。 公司预计2026财年净销售至少330亿美元，分析师预期300.3亿美元；预计第一财季净销售60亿-70亿美 元，分析师预期65.9亿美元。 来源：格隆汇APP ...