Markets have been unsettled at the start of 2025, with considerable uncertainty regarding President Donald Trump's economic policies and how things will unfold. The benchmark S&P 500 has experienced significant volatility in recent weeks.SoFi Technologies (SOFI 1.66%) hasn't been immune from this dramatic volatility. The company posted a strong year of growth and turned in its first full-year positive net income, but SoFi stock has fallen 31% since the turn of the new year. The fintech's valuation is signif ...

Group 1 - SoFi Technologies has evolved from a niche digital lender to a full-stack, vertically integrated financial platform offering a range of services including lending, banking, investments, credit cards, and infrastructure technology [1] - The company is positioned to leverage a multidisciplinary strategy that combines financial analysis, behavioral finance, psychology, social sciences, and alternative metrics to identify high conviction investment opportunities [1] - SoFi aims to uncover breakout opportunities before they gain mainstream attention, focusing on transformative businesses that are poised for exponential growth [1]

Market Recovery - The financial market experienced a quick recovery this week, led by more volatile names in the industry, following news of a 90-day delay in tariffs outside of China [1] - Despite weak economic data later in the week, the market maintained optimism [1] Stock Performance - Shares of SoFi Technologies increased by as much as 11.3%, KKR rose by 9.2%, and Capital One Financial saw a rise of 7.4% at their peaks this week [2] - As of 2:30 p.m. ET, the stocks were up 10.6%, 7.5%, and 6%, respectively [2] Market Context - The recent stock movements are in comparison to last week's market collapse, with shares still down from early April and all having fallen in 2025 [3] - The rally is viewed as potentially not durable, as investors are betting on tariff delays reducing recession risks and defaults on debts for companies like SoFi and Capital One [4] Economic Risks - Despite a perceived reduction in short-term risks, economists are increasing recession expectations, and rising interest rates could make refinancing more costly for companies, consumers, and the government [5] - The decline of the dollar adds to the economic challenges [5] Long-term Trends - Long-term investors are advised to consider ongoing trends such as declining consumer confidence, rising tariffs, inflation expectations, and increasing interest rates [6] - These factors may negatively impact the economy and financial firms, leading to a focus on which companies will survive market turbulence [7] Investment Strategy - Investors are encouraged to maintain a long-term perspective and buy opportunistically during short-term market fluctuations [8] - Companies are expected to manage risks better than during the financial crisis, and significant dips may present investment opportunities [8]

Core Viewpoint - SoFi has experienced a significant decline in stock price despite reporting its first full profitable year and strong business momentum, indicating potential overreaction in the market [2][10]. Company Performance - SoFi's stock price has decreased by 37% since its peak in January, even after a recent rebound [2]. - The company ended 2024 with 10.1 million members, a 34% increase from the end of 2023, and revenue grew by 26% [5]. - 2024 marked SoFi's first full year of positive net income, with adjusted EBITDA also growing by 26% [6]. Growth Catalysts - SoFi has announced two personal loan securitization agreements totaling approximately $1.2 billion and expanded its loan platform business through a $5 billion agreement with Blue Owl Capital [8]. - The Galileo technology platform launched a Deposit Sweep product, enhancing customer interest earnings [8]. - The loan platform presents significant revenue growth potential in a capital-light, low-risk manner, with opportunities for cross-selling products to existing customers [9]. Market Context - Despite negative economic news and increased uncertainty in the stock market, SoFi's actual business news has been positive [7]. - The stock is currently trading at its lowest price-to-book valuation in six months, despite the company's progress [10].

I wrote on SoFi (NASDAQ: SOFI ) recently stating why the investment case was so complicated and made the case that it was prudent to take some profits. Since that time, the S&P is down about 15% while SoFi is downRetail investor researching mostly semiconductors and fintech. Some general macro musings. My goal is to bring you timely and digestible research on the stocks that I cover.Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of SOFI either through stock ownership, options, or o ...

Core Viewpoint - Upstart Holdings (UPST) and SoFi Technologies (SOFI) represent two distinct business models within the fintech industry, with UPST focusing on AI-driven credit assessment and automation, while SOFI offers a diversified digital financial platform. The analysis suggests that UPST may present a smarter investment opportunity compared to SOFI due to its higher growth potential and favorable valuation metrics. Upstart Holdings - Upstart Holdings utilizes artificial intelligence and machine learning to evaluate creditworthiness, moving beyond traditional FICO scores to include various factors such as education and employment history [1] - In Q4 2024, 91% of Upstart's loans were fully automated, leading to reduced costs and faster approvals, enhancing its competitive edge in personal lending [2] - The company is expanding into auto lending, home equity lines of credit (HELOC), and small-dollar loans, with auto originations and HELOCs both increasing by 60%, and small-dollar loans surging by 115% quarter over quarter [3] - For Q4 2024, Upstart reported a 56% year-over-year revenue increase and achieved a non-GAAP profit of $0.29 per share, a turnaround from a loss of $0.11 in the previous year [4] - Upstart's revenue growth guidance indicates a 57% increase for Q1 and 59% for the full year of 2025, suggesting continued momentum [4] SoFi Technologies - SoFi Technologies operates as a comprehensive digital financial platform, offering banking, investing, lending, and personal finance tools, supported by a national bank charter for low-cost loan funding [5] - In Q4 2024, SoFi added 785,000 new members, the highest in its history, and improved product-per-user metrics through effective cross-selling strategies [6] - The company is exploring enhancements in cryptocurrency services, which aligns with current regulatory trends and ambitions to position the U.S. as a leader in the crypto space [7] - SoFi's Q4 2024 revenue and non-GAAP EPS grew by 19% and 150% year-over-year, respectively, but its growth rates lag behind those of Upstart [8] - For the full year of 2025, SoFi expects a revenue growth of only 24%, significantly lower than Upstart's forecast [8] Stock Performance and Valuation - Over the past 12 months, Upstart Holdings shares have returned 46.9%, outperforming SoFi Technologies' 25.7% gain [9] - Both companies have similar forward 12-month price-to-sales (P/S) multiples around 3X, but Upstart's P/S ratio of 3.08 is below its one-year median of 5.26, indicating potential for upside [10] - SoFi's P/S multiple of 3.03 is in line with its historical average, suggesting that much of its expected growth is already reflected in its stock price [10] Earnings Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Upstart Holdings indicates a 59.3% year-over-year increase in sales and a staggering 785% increase in EPS for 2025, with positive trends in EPS estimates over the past 60 days [12] - In contrast, SoFi Technologies' 2025 sales and EPS are expected to grow by 23.9% and 66.7%, respectively, with recent downward trends in EPS estimates [15] Conclusion - Upstart Holdings is positioned for higher growth due to its innovative AI-driven models and favorable valuation metrics, while SoFi Technologies, despite its strengths, shows slower growth potential [16][17]

Group 1 - SoFi Technologies (NASDAQ: SOFI) stock has decreased nearly 40% since a 'Strong buy' recommendation in early December, despite strong Q4 2024 earnings [1] - The decline in stock price began in late January due to softer-than-expected guidance following the earnings report [1] Group 2 - The author has a long position in SoFi shares through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives [2] - The article reflects the author's own opinions and is not compensated by any company mentioned [2]

*Stock prices used were the afternoon prices of April 5, 2025. The video was published on April 7, 2025. SoFi Technologies (SOFI -4.01%) is now trading at less than $10 a share, potentially making it an attractive long-term investment. ...

Oliver Rodzianko is an accomplished investment analyst grounded in timeless value principles, specializing in the technology sector with expertise in AI, semiconductors, software, and renewable energy. He focuses on companies with resilient management and lasting competitive advantages, often taking long-term positions in those with strong leadership and wide economic moats. Recognized as a trusted authority in financial analysis, Rodzianko’s articles are regularly featured as “Must Reads” on Seeking Alpha, ...

Core Viewpoint - Amazon's peak growth days are behind it, prompting investors to seek alternative growth stocks [2] Group 1: Amazon and E-commerce - Amazon has seen a remarkable increase in stock value, over 250,000% since its IPO in 1997, despite recent pullbacks [1] - The e-commerce landscape is evolving, with brands and sellers exploring alternatives to Amazon [4] - Shopify enables companies to create their own online stores, facilitating direct sales to consumers [5] - Shopify's platform facilitated sales of $292.3 billion in 2024, generating nearly $8.9 billion in revenue and $1.1 billion in operating income, marking significant growth from the previous year [6] - A growing consumer preference for authenticity and responsible businesses is benefiting platforms like Shopify, with 76% of North American consumers seeking "feel good" content from brands [7] - Analysts project Shopify's top-line growth to exceed 20% annually through at least 2027 [8] Group 2: Online Banking - The banking industry has been transformed by the internet, with 55% of U.S. consumers using mobile apps for banking [9] - SoFi Technologies operates as a fully online bank, catering to tech-savvy consumers who prefer digital banking solutions [11] - SoFi has over 10.1 million customers, with a continuous growth streak since 2020 [13] - The global online banking market is expected to grow by 14% annually until 2030, with North America being a significant contributor [14] Group 3: Ride-Hailing Industry - Uber Technologies is currently trading at a price approximately 25% below analysts' consensus target of over $90 per share, despite ongoing growth [15] - The rise of mobile internet has facilitated the growth of ride-hailing services like Uber, which has seen a 19% increase in total trips and revenue [17] - A trend is emerging where younger consumers are less interested in car ownership, with 44% of those under 35 willing to give up their vehicles for ride-hailing alternatives [17] - The number of 19-year-olds with a driver's license has decreased from over 87% in 1983 to less than 69% in 2022, indicating a shift in transportation preferences [18] - Uber's growth is expected to remain in the mid-teens as ride-hailing continues to replace traditional car ownership, with analysts generally viewing Uber stock as a strong buy [19]