Core Insights - Constellation Brands, Inc. is set to release its second-quarter earnings results on October 6, with analysts expecting earnings of $3.41 per share, a decrease from $4.32 per share in the same period last year [1] - The company projects quarterly revenue of $2.48 billion, down from $2.92 billion a year earlier [1][2] Financial Outlook - On September 2, Constellation Brands revised its fiscal year 2026 outlook downward due to macroeconomic challenges impacting consumer demand [2] - Following the outlook cut, Constellation shares experienced a decline of 1.3%, closing at $134.67 [2] Analyst Ratings - Wells Fargo analyst Chris Carey maintained an Overweight rating but reduced the price target from $170 to $155 [4] - Barclays analyst Lauren Lieberman downgraded the stock from Overweight to Equal-Weight, cutting the price target from $202 to $150 [4] - BMO Capital analyst Andrew Strelzik kept an Outperform rating while lowering the price target from $215 to $190 [4] - TD Cowen analyst Robert Moskow maintained a Hold rating and decreased the price target from $180 to $152 [4] - Morgan Stanley analyst Dar Mohsenian maintained an Equal-Weight rating, reducing the price target from $195 to $176 [4]

Core Insights - Constellation Brands, Inc. is facing significant challenges, including a 37% stock decline this year, contrasting with the S&P 500's 12% rise [1] - The company is set to release its quarterly earnings on October 6, 2025, with analysts predicting an EPS of $3.37 and revenue of approximately $2.48 billion, but a decline in earnings is expected for the quarter ending August 2025 [2][6] - Changing consumer habits, particularly among younger demographics, are impacting beer consumption, contributing to the company's financial challenges [4][6] Financial Metrics - Constellation Brands has a price-to-sales ratio of about 2.39, indicating investors are willing to pay $2.39 for every dollar of sales [5] - The enterprise value to sales ratio is approximately 3.53, and the enterprise value to operating cash flow ratio is around 11.47 [5] - The company's debt-to-equity ratio stands at about 1.59, suggesting a higher level of debt compared to equity [5][6] Market Impact - The upcoming earnings report could significantly impact STZ's stock price, with potential for a rise if expectations are exceeded, or a decline if they are not met [3]

Core Viewpoint - Constellation Brands (STZ) is anticipated to report a year-over-year decline in earnings and revenues for the quarter ended August 2025, which could significantly influence its stock price depending on the actual results compared to estimates [1][3]. Earnings Expectations - The upcoming earnings report is expected to show earnings of $3.37 per share, reflecting a 22% decrease year-over-year, with revenues projected at $2.46 billion, down 15.8% from the previous year [3]. - The consensus EPS estimate has been revised down by 6.46% over the last 30 days, indicating a reassessment by analysts [4]. Earnings Surprise Prediction - The Zacks Earnings ESP model indicates that the Most Accurate Estimate matches the Zacks Consensus Estimate, resulting in an Earnings ESP of 0%, suggesting no recent differing analyst views [12]. - The stock currently holds a Zacks Rank of 5, which complicates the prediction of an earnings beat [12][13]. Historical Performance - In the last reported quarter, Constellation Brands was expected to post earnings of $3.34 per share but delivered only $3.22, resulting in a surprise of -3.59% [14]. - Over the past four quarters, the company has beaten consensus EPS estimates twice [15]. Market Reaction Factors - An earnings beat or miss alone may not dictate stock movement, as other factors can influence investor sentiment [16]. - While betting on stocks expected to beat earnings can increase success odds, Constellation Brands does not currently appear to be a strong candidate for an earnings beat [18].

Core Thesis - Constellation Brands, Inc. (STZ) is viewed as a compelling investment opportunity due to its historically low valuation metrics, strong brand loyalty, and growth potential in the alcohol sector [1][3][6] Valuation Metrics - As of September 18th, STZ's share price was $133.02, with trailing and forward P/E ratios of 18.50 and 11.38 respectively [1] - The company's EV/EBIT multiple is around 10.5x, the lowest in its history, even below levels seen during the 2008/09 financial crisis [3] Brand Strength and Distribution - Constellation's competitive advantage lies in its strong brand portfolio, including iconic brands like Modelo, which foster generational loyalty [4] - The company's North American distribution network enhances its market position by controlling shelf space and tap handles, assets that are scarce and aggressively defended [4] Financial Performance and Growth Drivers - Despite short-term concerns regarding consumer spending and debt, the company has shown resilient margins and strong free cash flow, projected at $2.3 billion for FY2024 [5] - Growth is driven by Modelo surpassing Bud Light as the top beer in America, premiumization trends in the alcohol sector, and international expansion of Mexican beer brands [5] Intrinsic Value and Market Mispricing - A conservative valuation approach suggests an intrinsic equity value of approximately $36 billion, close to the current market capitalization of $42–43 billion [5] - Even modest growth could push intrinsic value above $50 billion, indicating a 20–25% margin of safety [6] Long-term Investment Outlook - The combination of durable brands, strong distribution, and global growth potential presents a favorable risk/reward scenario for long-term investors [6] - The company's strong moat, disciplined management, and reliable cash flow contribute to its attractiveness as a long-term investment opportunity [6]

Each week we run a DCF (Discounted Cash Flow) model on a company from our watchlist. This week’s pick: Constellation Brands, Inc. (STZ).ProfileConstellation Brands is one of the largest beer, wine, and spirits companies in the United States, with strong brand power across labels such as Corona, Modelo, and Robert Mondavi. The company benefits from consistent consumer demand and premium pricing across its portfolio. While growth in beer remains robust, Constellation continues to navigate margin pressures, hi ...

Core Viewpoint - Constellation Brands Inc. has lowered its fiscal 2026 outlook due to challenging macroeconomic conditions, impacting earnings and sales forecasts [1][2]. Financial Outlook - The company now expects comparable earnings per share to be between $11.30 and $11.60, a decrease from the previous guidance of $12.60 to $12.90 [1]. - Enterprise organic net sales are projected to decline by 4% to 6%, influenced by lower volumes and operating deleveraging [2]. - Free cash flow guidance has been reduced to between $1.3 billion and $1.4 billion, down from $1.5 billion to $1.6 billion [2]. Shareholder Commitment - Despite the lowered guidance, Constellation Brands has reaffirmed its commitment to shareholder value with a $4 billion stock repurchase program, having executed $604 million in buybacks in the first half of fiscal 2026 [3]. Market Trends - There has been a deceleration in high-end beer buy rates, particularly among Hispanic consumers, which has a significant impact on the company's Beer Business [4]. Company Overview - Constellation Brands Inc. is a major player in the production and marketing of beer, wine, and spirits, with notable brands such as Corona and Modelo, and is the largest importer and distributor of these beverages in the U.S. [5].

Core Insights - Anheuser-Busch InBev has regained the title of the bestselling beer in America with its Michelob ULTRA brand, surpassing Bud Light and Modelo Especial [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - Michelob ULTRA has become the number one beer in the retail sector over the past 52 weeks, according to Circana data, and also leads in bars and restaurants as per Nielsen data [4]. - Over the last five years, Michelob ULTRA has experienced a growth of 15% and gained over 2% of the beer market [5]. - Anheuser-Busch InBev's stock has increased by 18.4% year-to-date in 2025, recovering from previous losses related to Bud Light [11]. Group 2: Competitive Landscape - Constellation Brands' Modelo Especial has seen weaker demand recently, attributed to higher prices and economic concerns affecting Hispanic buyers, who represent about half of Constellation's beer business [8]. - Constellation has lowered its full-year guidance, expecting net beer sales to decline by 2% to 4% compared to earlier projections of flat to a 3% increase year-over-year [9]. Group 3: Marketing and Partnerships - Michelob ULTRA has engaged in partnerships with major sports leagues and events, including the NBA, WNBA, PGA Tour, and the upcoming 2026 FIFA World Cup, enhancing its visibility [3][6]. - The brand has also signed a multi-year partnership with Netflix for co-branded deals, which is expected to further increase consumer attention [7].

Group 1 - Michelob Ultra has become the best-selling beer in the US, surpassing Modelo Especial during the 52 weeks ended September 14, according to Anheuser-Busch InBev [1] - Michelob Ultra also led sales in bars and restaurants over the past year, as reported by Nielsen IQ [1] - Bud Light, previously the top-selling beer for over two decades, faced a significant decline in sales due to a controversial partnership with a transgender influencer, leading to a boycott [2][3] Group 2 - Constellation Brands, which owns Modelo Especial and Corona, has experienced a sales slump attributed to declining demand among Hispanic consumers, who represent about half of its business [4][6] - Economic concerns, such as rising food prices and a weak job market, have caused Hispanic consumers to reduce their beer consumption, impacting Constellation's sales [6] - Constellation has revised its full-year forecast, expecting a 2% to 4% drop in net beer sales, down from previous expectations of flat sales to a 3% increase [7] Group 3 - AB InBev's shares have increased by 17% this year, while Constellation's shares have fallen by 40% [7] - Tariffs on aluminum and Mexican imports have posed additional challenges for beer manufacturers [7]

Core Insights - Michelob Ultra has surpassed Modelo Especial to become the best-selling beer in the United States, marking a significant shift in the market dynamics [1][2] - AB InBev's Michelob Ultra's rise comes after a challenging period for the company, particularly following the backlash against Bud Light [2] - Constellation Brands is facing challenges, including tariffs and declining demand from its core Hispanic consumer base, which has historically been significant for Modelo Especial [3][4] Company Performance - AB InBev's stock has increased by over 16% this year, reflecting the positive impact of Michelob Ultra's sales performance [4] - In contrast, Constellation Brands' shares have decreased by 39%, indicating struggles in its business operations and market position [4] Market Dynamics - The shift in consumer preferences has led to Michelob Ultra becoming the top seller in both retail and bar/restaurant channels [1] - Constellation Brands has revised its fiscal year forecast, expecting a decline in net beer sales by 2% to 4% due to lower volumes and tariff impacts, a change from its previous expectation of flat to 3% growth [4]

Core Insights - Warren Buffett has achieved an average annual return of around 20% for Berkshire Hathaway over the past 60 years, significantly outperforming the stock market's average return of close to 10% [1] Company Summaries Sirius XM Holdings - Sirius XM Holdings is a major audio entertainment provider with approximately 160 million monthly listeners, offering services primarily via satellite [4] - The company has a current dividend yield of 4.6%, but its stock has declined by nearly 24% annually over the past three years, despite a 5.7% increase year-to-date as of mid-September [5] - Recent financial performance has shown slowed revenue and membership growth, resulting in a net loss, although the loss was smaller than expected [5] - Berkshire Hathaway and its investment managers own nearly 37% of Sirius XM, indicating confidence in the company's potential [6] - Sirius XM's forward-looking price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is 7.6, significantly lower than its five-year average of 13.1, suggesting a potentially attractive valuation [6] Constellation Brands - Constellation Brands is another holding of Berkshire Hathaway, with the company owning 7.4% after acquiring over 1 million shares in the last quarter [7] - The company produces and sells alcoholic beverages, including well-known brands like Corona and Modelo, primarily in the U.S., Mexico, New Zealand, and Italy [9] - Constellation Brands offers a dividend yield of 3%, and when factoring in recent share buybacks, the total shareholder return rate is closer to 8% [9]