更多资料加入知识星球:水木调研纪要 关注公众号:水木纪要 腾讯控股 20240718_原文 2024 年 07 月 19 日 00:43 发言人 00:00 请参会人员务必注意,本次电话会议交流内容仅限参会人员内部参考,任何机构或个人不得以 任何形式对电话会议任何内容进行泄露或外发,请勿以任何方式索要、泄露、散布、转发电话 会议纪要。任何泄露电话会议纪要等信息的行为均为侵权行为。申万宏源研究保留追究泄露转 发者法律责任的权利。 发言人 00:35 各位尊敬的投资者,大家晚上好,我是申万宏源的互联网分析师林启贤。今天跟我一起来做这 个观点分享的是我们的同事夏佳丽。我们团队就是从很早之前一直都是 A 股的传媒,还有港股 的互联网一起覆盖的那在今年的整个月份的时候也是不断的去提示,整个互联网进入到一个提 高股东回报,然后在中国所有的核心资产里面估值性价比非常高的一个阶段。并且提示就是, 如果未来大家还比较关注国内的科技产业,尤其是像 AI 产业要有,比较大的一个发展的话。那, 云厂商包括互联网公司,他们的这个布局一定是产业链当中非常关键的一一环。尽管目前他们 的估值里面完全没有体现对于 AI 以及对于科技股的这种成 ...

Summary of Tencent Holdings Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Tencent Holdings - **Industry**: Internet and Technology Key Points and Arguments Financial Performance Expectations - **Q2 Revenue Growth**: Expected to be 8% year-on-year [5] - **Adjusted Net Profit Growth**: Anticipated to grow by 27% year-on-year [5] - **Game Business**: Expected to return to positive growth in Q2, with a projected 6% increase [5][9] - **Advertising Revenue**: Anticipated to grow by 17% year-on-year, driven by video accounts [10] - **Financial Technology Revenue**: Expected to grow by 11% year-on-year, with payment services showing slower growth [11] - **Cloud Business**: Projected to grow by 12% year-on-year, with a focus on high-quality growth [11] Business Segment Insights - **Gaming**: - Domestic games expected to grow by 5%, with key titles like "Honor of Kings" and "Peacekeeper Elite" performing well [6] - International gaming revenue expected to grow by 8%, with strong performance from "Brawl Stars" [7] - Anticipated overall gaming growth of over 20% year-on-year in the second half of the year [9] - **Advertising**: - Video accounts are a key growth driver, with significant potential for increased ad load compared to competitors [10] - AI is expected to enhance advertising effectiveness [10] - **Financial Technology**: - Payment services growth is closely tied to macroeconomic conditions, with a projected 6% growth in this segment [11] Strategic Focus Areas - **AI and Technology Investments**: - Tencent is focusing on integrating AI into its business operations, particularly in advertising and cloud services [12][46] - The company has seen a significant increase in its AI-related investments, which are expected to enhance its competitive edge [49] - **Shareholder Returns**: - The company has entered a phase of increasing shareholder returns, with a focus on buybacks and dividends [14][16] - The expected shareholder return rate is over 4% [18] Market Position and Competitive Landscape - **Market Sentiment**: - Despite recent stock price fluctuations, Tencent remains a strong player in the core asset space in China [15][16] - The company is viewed as a high-quality investment option within the Chinese internet sector [18] - **Long-term Growth Potential**: - Concerns exist regarding the long-term growth potential of the gaming sector, but Tencent's global expansion strategy is expected to mitigate these risks [20][21] - The company is leveraging its gaming capabilities to tap into international markets, with a focus on high-margin products [30][51] Future Outlook - **E-commerce and Video Accounts**: - E-commerce is expected to be a significant growth area, with video accounts playing a crucial role in monetization [41][42] - The potential for video account revenue is projected to exceed 600 billion, with significant room for growth [38] - **Cloud and AI Development**: - Tencent is shifting its cloud strategy towards higher-margin services, with a focus on AI applications [47][48] - The company aims to enhance its cloud offerings to compete more effectively in the market [46] Additional Insights - **Profitability Metrics**: - Expected gross margin and adjusted net profit margin for Q2 are projected at 51% and 30%, respectively [13] - **Market Dynamics**: - The competitive landscape is improving, with Tencent positioned to benefit from a more favorable market environment [17] This summary encapsulates the key insights and projections discussed during the Tencent Holdings conference call, highlighting the company's financial expectations, strategic focus, and market positioning.

腾讯控股Q2前瞻及近期观点汇报20240718_导读 2024年07月19日 00:15 关键词 腾讯 游戏 广告业务 金融科技 视频号 AI 股东回报 估值性价比 一季度 利润率 微信 广告 电商 云和AI 投 资 广告收入 研发 估值 应用生态 内容推荐 全文摘要 互联网行业分析人士重点关注了腾讯在第二季度的业绩预期,预测其营业收入和调整后净利润分别实 现8%和27%的同比增长。其中,游戏业务、广告和金融科技业务预计均将持续增长。分析强调了腾讯在 推进游戏长期战略、优化视频号商业化变现、以及人工智能在广告领域应用等方面的努力和前景。腾讯 凭借微信的货币化能力和竞争优势,实现了利润的持续增长,尤其是在视频号和小游戏业务上展现出巨 大的增长潜力。同时,腾讯游戏业务,尤其是在海外市场,以及云和AI技术的发展,为其中期和长期增 长提供了动力。虽然短期内市场可能未充分认识到腾讯在云和AI领域的价值,但分析师认为这些因素将 对腾讯的未来估值产生重要影响。总体而言,腾讯被认为是一个具有较高性价比的投资标的。 章节速览 ● 00:00 互联网分析师探讨腾讯Q2业绩及未来展望 互联网行业分析人士重点讨论了腾讯在第二季度的业 ...

请参会人员务必注意本次电话会议交流内容仅限参会人员内部参考任何机构或个人不得以任何形式对电话会议任何内容进行泄露或外发请勿以任何方式索要、泄露、散布、转发电话会议纪要任何泄露电话会议纪要等信息的行为均为侵权行为申望洪源研究保留追究泄露转发者法律责任的权利 各位尊敬的投资者大家晚上好我是声望宏园的互联网分析师林启贤那今天跟我一起来做这个观点分享的是我们的同事夏佳丽那我们团队呢就是从这个很早之前一直都是这个A股的传媒还有港股的互联网一起覆盖的那这个在今年的整个三四月份的时候也是不断的去提示就是整个互联网就是进入到一个 提高股东回报然后这个在中国所有的核心资产里面估值性价比非常高的一个阶段并且的提示就是如果未来大家还比较关注国内的这个科技产业尤其像AI产业要有比较大的一个发展的话那云厂商包括互联网公司他们的这个布局一定是产业链当中非常非常关键的一环尽管目前他们的估值里面完全没有体现 对于AI以及对于科技股的这种成长的一个预期但是如果我们去回顾整个就是海外美股的这个互联网大厂在去年到今年的这个 其实可以看到除了收入的一个回暖之外那可能科技领域的这种创新研发投入其实也是使得大家对于未来充满信心的一个关键也是去提升估值的 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tencent Holdings (0700 HK) [2] Core Views - Tencent's 24Q2 revenue is expected to reach 1618 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8 5% [2] - Non-IFRS net profit is projected to be 502 billion yuan, up 33 6% year-on-year [2] - The company's gaming business is performing well, with domestic and overseas game revenues expected to grow by 8% and 14% respectively [2] - Advertising revenue is anticipated to increase by 22% to 305 billion yuan, driven by WeChat video ads and mini-program ads [2] - Financial technology and enterprise services revenue is forecasted to grow by 7% to 520 billion yuan [2] Business Segment Analysis Gaming Business - Domestic gaming revenue is expected to reach 343 billion yuan, up 8% year-on-year, with new game "DNF Mobile" performing exceptionally well [2] - Overseas gaming revenue is projected to grow by 14% to 145 billion yuan, with "Brawl Stars" and "Squad Busters" contributing significantly [2] - Several new games are scheduled for release in the second half of 2024, including "Need for Speed: United" and "World Genesis" [2] Advertising Business - WeChat video ads are expected to drive growth, with the integration of video e-commerce into the WeChat ecosystem [2] - Mini-program ads are also performing strongly, benefiting from small game and short drama advertising [2] Financial Technology and Enterprise Services - Payment revenue growth has slowed due to weak offline consumption, but enterprise services continue to grow rapidly [2] - The company's AI capabilities, including the upgraded Hunyuan model and Yuanbao APP, are expected to enhance long-term competitiveness [2] Financial Projections - Revenue for FY2024-2026 is projected to be 6710/7333/7957 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth of 10 2%/9 3%/8 5% [2] - Non-IFRS net profit for the same period is expected to be 2180/2488/2729 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth of 38 3%/14 1%/9 7% [2] - The company's PE ratio under the Non-IFRS framework is projected to be 15/13/12x for FY2024-2026 [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for Tencent Holdings, with a target price range of HKD 453.08 to HKD 503.42 [3][6][85]. Core Insights - The importance of shareholder returns has increased, with a focus on cash dividends and share buybacks, leading to a clearer financial improvement for Tencent [8][9]. - The expected shareholder return for 2024 is projected to be between 3.2% and 4.1% after tax, driven by increased cash dividends and share repurchases [9][24]. - The report anticipates that the growth rate of EPS will outpace that of net profit by 2.4 to 3.3 percentage points in 2024, due to significant share buybacks and high-margin new business contributions [9][34]. Summary by Sections 1. Quantifying Shareholder Returns - The dividend payout ratio has increased to approximately 18% over the past two years, with four special dividend distributions made [16][17]. - Share buybacks have significantly increased, with a record high of HKD 375 billion in Q2 2024, and a plan to double the buyback amount to over HKD 100 billion in 2024 [20][21]. - The dilution effect from equity incentives is estimated at about 0.6% annually [22]. 2. Sources of Cash Flow Stability - Tencent's competitive environment is relatively stable, with strong positions in gaming and payment sectors, leading to better cash flow than reported profits [40][41]. - The report notes a significant reduction in cash flow allocated to external investments since 2022, allowing for increased shareholder returns, which are expected to reach 62% to 78% of free cash flow in 2024 [40][54]. 3. Feasibility Analysis - The report highlights Tencent's strong market position and stable competitive landscape, which supports its cash flow and shareholder return potential [56][57]. - The company has a strong bargaining power and business selection ability, which enhances its profitability [62]. 4. Contributions from Joint Ventures - The profitability of core joint ventures is expected to improve, contributing positively to Tencent's financials [64]. - The report indicates that the pressure from major shareholder reductions has stabilized and can be offset by share buybacks [73]. 5. Valuation Discussion - The report suggests a shift in valuation metrics from revenue growth to EPS growth, with a target valuation of 18-20x PE for 2024 [85][88]. - The expected revenue for 2024 is projected at HKD 670.6 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 10% [90][91]. 6. Profit Forecast - The forecast for 2024-2026 includes revenues of HKD 670.6 billion, HKD 732.9 billion, and HKD 792.9 billion, with corresponding net profits of HKD 210.1 billion, HKD 234.9 billion, and HKD 259.8 billion [90][93].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tencent Holdings (0700.HK) with a target price range of 453.08 to 503.42 HKD, while the current price is 371.80 HKD [1]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the increasing importance of shareholder returns, highlighting Tencent's rising cash dividend ratio and record share buyback amounts over the past two years. It aims to explore the financial improvements resulting from this focus on shareholder returns [1][29]. - The anticipated shareholder return for 2024 is projected to be between 3.2% and 4.1% after tax, based on cash dividends and share buybacks [6][51]. Summary by Sections Shareholder Returns - Tencent's shareholder returns are divided into cash dividends and share buybacks, with the cash dividend rate significantly increasing from 10.7% in 2021 to 18.5% in 2023. The company plans to double its buyback amount to over 100 billion HKD in 2024 [1][29]. - The report predicts that the growth rate of earnings per share (EPS) will outpace net profit growth due to high-margin new businesses and operational leverage [1][43]. Financial Performance Forecast - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 670.6 billion HKD, 732.9 billion HKD, and 792.9 billion HKD for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with year-over-year growth rates of 10%, 9%, and 8% [2]. - The projected net profit for 2024 is 210.1 billion HKD, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 49.1% [2]. Cash Flow and Investment Strategy - The report discusses the stability of Tencent's cash flow, which is expected to remain better than reported profits due to a favorable competitive environment and reduced external investments. The cash flow allocated to shareholder returns is anticipated to increase significantly [29][94]. - The report notes a structural change in the use of free cash flow, with a significant decrease in external investments since 2022, allowing for greater shareholder return expenditures [29][94]. Valuation Discussion - The report reviews Tencent's historical valuation cycles and suggests that the current market conditions may lead to a new valuation paradigm, with a focus on EPS growth as a key metric [1][85]. - The anticipated buyback amount for 2024 is estimated at 1,000 billion HKD under a neutral scenario and 1,323 billion HKD under an optimistic scenario, which is expected to further enhance EPS growth [62][89].

李京霖 Jinglin.li@firstshanghai.com.hk + 852 25321962 行业 市值 总股本 52 周高/低 每股账面值 股价表现 2024 年 7 月 16 日 星期二 腾讯《地下城与勇士：起源》登顶 6 月全球手游畅销榜 根据 Sensor Tower 商店情报平台显示，《地下城与勇士：起源》位居 6 月全球手游 畅销榜第一，《王者荣耀》、《和平精英》、《金铲铲之战》位居二三四名。 由腾讯发行的《地下城与勇士：起源》自 5 月 21 日正式公测后，连续 38 天位居国 内 iPhone 总榜和手游畅销榜的双榜首。截至 7 月 10 日，其在中国 iOS 市场的收入 已超 4 亿美元，同时登顶 6 月全球手游畅销榜，终结了过去 7 个月《MONOPOLY GO!》 对该榜单的垄断。 2024 年 6 月共 37 个中国厂商入围全球手游发行商收入榜 TOP100，合计收入 19.2 亿美元，占本期全球 TOP100 手游发行商收入 37%，腾讯蝉联第一。 腾讯首款开放世界赛车手游《极品飞车：集结》7 月 11 日公测 2024 年微信小游戏开发者大会将于 7 月 16 日在北京举办 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tencent Holdings with a target price of 462 HKD for 2024 [24][11]. Core Insights - The report highlights that Tencent's gaming and advertising sectors are expected to grow well, leading to continuous improvement in profitability. The anticipated revenue for FY24Q2 is 160.4 billion RMB, representing a year-on-year growth of 7.5% [28][23]. - The gaming business is recovering, with projected revenue of 46.5 billion RMB for FY24Q2, a year-on-year increase of 4.6%. Domestic game revenue is expected to be 33.1 billion RMB, while overseas game revenue is projected at 13.5 billion RMB [12][28]. - The advertising sector is expected to see significant growth, with network advertising revenue projected to reach 30.8 billion RMB in FY24Q2, a year-on-year increase of 23% [13][28]. Summary by Sections Financial Forecasts and Valuation - Adjusted revenue forecasts for FY2024 and FY2025 are set at 654.3 billion RMB and 703.7 billion RMB, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 7.4% and 7.5%. Adjusted net profit for FY2024 and FY2025 is projected at 197.2 billion RMB and 222.5 billion RMB, reflecting year-on-year growth of 25.0% and 12.9% [11][8]. - The gross profit margin for FY24Q2 is expected to reach 52.9%, slightly up from the previous quarter, primarily due to improvements in the advertising business [7][11]. Gaming Business - The gaming segment is anticipated to recover, with revenue expected to be 46.5 billion RMB in FY24Q2, a 4.6% increase year-on-year. Notable titles include the new game "DNF Mobile," which has already generated over 400 million USD in revenue in the Chinese iOS market as of July 10 [12][28]. Advertising and Social Network - The report forecasts that the video account feature will drive network advertising revenue to 30.8 billion RMB in FY24Q2, marking a 23% increase year-on-year. The growth in live-streaming e-commerce is expected to contribute significantly to advertising revenue [13][28]. - Social network revenue is projected to be 30.2 billion RMB in FY24Q2, with a modest year-on-year growth of 1.5% [29][28]. Financial Technology and Enterprise Services - Financial technology and enterprise services revenue is expected to reach 51.6 billion RMB in FY24Q2, reflecting a 6.0% year-on-year growth, although the growth rate is slowing due to weak offline consumption [30][28].

| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------------|-------------------------|-------------------------|----------|-----------------------|-------------------| | | 收入 24E （亿人民币） | 利润 24E （亿人民币） | 估值方式 | 对应市值 （亿人民币） | 对应股价 ( 港元 ) | | 端游 | 456 | 203 | 15x PE | 3,038 | 35 | | 手游 | 1,724 | 704 | 25x PE | 17,593 | 205 | | 非游戏增值业务 | 803 | 72 | 20x PE | 1,433 | 17 | | 广告业务 | 1,015 | 358 | 25x PE | 8,939 | 104 | | 云业务 | 434 | | 4x PS | 1,735 | 20 | | 金融业务 | 1,685 | | 5x PS | 8,423 | 98 | | 投资 | | | | 4,104 | 48 ...