Investment Rating - The investment rating for Tencent Holdings is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [2][8][23] Core Views - Tencent is expected to achieve revenue of CNY 194.6 billion in Q4 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 13%. The network advertising sector is anticipated to perform steadily, benefiting from the release of advertising inventory and AI integration. The gaming business is expected to show strong performance, particularly with the game "Delta Operation" [4][9] - The company is increasing its investment in AI, which is expected to offset some operational leverage release. The AI investment will primarily manifest in R&D expenses, projected to grow by 28% in Q4 2025 [4][10] - The gaming segment is projected to generate revenue of CNY 58 billion in Q4 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 18%. Domestic game revenue is expected to grow by 16%, supported by established titles like "Honor of Kings" and "Peacekeeper Elite" [5][15][21] - Marketing services revenue is expected to reach CNY 41.3 billion in Q4 2025, reflecting an 18% year-on-year increase, driven by AI enhancements in advertising efficiency [6][19] - Financial technology and enterprise services are projected to grow by 9% year-on-year, with revenue expected to reach CNY 61.2 billion in Q4 2025, primarily driven by payment services [20] Summary by Relevant Sections Financial Performance - Q4 2025 revenue is expected to be CNY 194.6 billion, with a 13% year-on-year increase. Non-IFRS operating profit is projected at CNY 68.1 billion, up 15% year-on-year, and net profit is expected to be CNY 65.2 billion, reflecting an 18% increase [4][10][11] - The expected Non-IFRS net profit margin is 34% for Q4 2025 [10] Gaming Business - The gaming revenue forecast for Q4 2025 is CNY 58 billion, with an 18% year-on-year growth. Domestic game revenue is expected to grow by 16%, while overseas game revenue is projected to increase by 22% [5][21] Marketing Services - Marketing services revenue is anticipated to be CNY 41.3 billion in Q4 2025, marking an 18% year-on-year growth. AI-driven enhancements are expected to improve advertising efficiency significantly [6][19] Financial Technology and Enterprise Services - Revenue from financial technology and enterprise services is expected to reach CNY 61.2 billion in Q4 2025, with a 9% year-on-year growth, primarily driven by payment services [20]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Tencent Holdings is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [2][8][23] Core Views - Tencent is expected to achieve revenue of CNY 194.6 billion in Q4 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 13%. The network advertising sector is anticipated to perform steadily, benefiting from the release of advertising inventory and AI integration. The gaming business is expected to show strong performance, particularly with the game "Delta Action" [4][9] - The company is increasing its investment in AI, which is expected to offset some operational leverage release. The R&D expenses related to AI are projected to grow by 28% in Q4 2025 [4][10] - The gaming revenue is projected to reach CNY 58 billion in Q4 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 18%. Domestic game revenue is expected to grow by 16%, supported by established titles like "Honor of Kings" and "Peacekeeper Elite" [5][21] - Marketing services revenue is expected to be CNY 41.3 billion in Q4 2025, reflecting an 18% year-on-year increase, driven by AI enhancements in advertising [6][19] - Financial technology and enterprise services are projected to grow by 9% year-on-year, with revenue expected to reach CNY 61.2 billion in Q4 2025 [20] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q4 2025, Tencent's Non-IFRS operating profit is expected to be CNY 68.1 billion, a 15% increase year-on-year. The Non-IFRS net profit is projected to be CNY 65.2 billion, reflecting an 18% year-on-year growth, with a net profit margin of 34% [10][11] - The overall revenue for 2025 is forecasted to be CNY 752 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 14% [11][30] Gaming Sector - The gaming business is expected to generate CNY 58 billion in revenue for Q4 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 18%. The domestic gaming revenue is projected to grow by 16% [5][21] - Upcoming game releases, including "Delta Action" and "Future of Counterattack," are anticipated to enhance revenue streams [21] Marketing Services - Marketing services revenue is expected to reach CNY 41.3 billion in Q4 2025, with an 18% year-on-year increase. AI-driven advertising solutions are expected to improve operational efficiency for advertisers [6][19] Financial Technology and Enterprise Services - Financial technology and enterprise services are projected to grow by 9% year-on-year, with expected revenue of CNY 61.2 billion in Q4 2025. The growth is primarily driven by payment services and the introduction of AI applications in WeChat mini-programs [20]

Core Viewpoint - Tencent Holdings has experienced a downward trend in stock price after reaching a peak of 639 HKD on January 13, 2026, with a significant drop below 610 HKD recently, indicating a potential profit-taking phase by investors [2][3]. Group 1: Stock Performance - Tencent's stock price has shown a "lower high" pattern since reaching 683 HKD on October 2, 2025, with subsequent peaks at 662 HKD and 639 HKD, reflecting a technical downtrend [2]. - Despite a cumulative increase of over 200% in stock price since October 2022, recent performance has lagged behind the Hang Seng Index, suggesting a short-term consolidation phase [2][5]. - The stock has faced selling pressure even after positive reports from multiple investment banks, indicating a cautious market sentiment [3][4]. Group 2: Business Developments - On January 15, 2026, Tencent reported significant growth in its WeChat mini-programs, with usage exceeding 5 billion times globally, and a 320% increase in transaction volume for WeChat stores from August to December 2025 [3]. - Investment banks like CICC and UBS have maintained positive ratings for Tencent, with target prices set at 700 HKD and 780 HKD respectively, reflecting confidence in the company's long-term growth prospects [3][4]. - UBS highlighted Tencent's unique advantages in AI applications due to its large user base and robust mini-program ecosystem, bolstered by the recent hiring of a new AI head from OpenAI [4]. Group 3: Share Buybacks - Tencent has been actively repurchasing shares, with over 40 million shares bought back at a cost exceeding 25 billion HKD since November 2025, signaling confidence in its long-term value [5]. - The company's buyback strategy is viewed favorably by international investors, who prefer buybacks over dividends to avoid tax costs, aligning with Tencent's shareholder return policies [6].

Core Viewpoint - Tencent Holdings has experienced a downward trend in stock price despite positive business developments and favorable analyst reports, indicating a cautious market sentiment towards the stock [2][3][4]. Group 1: Stock Performance - Tencent's stock reached a peak of 639 HKD on January 13, followed by five consecutive days of decline, dropping below the 610 HKD mark [2]. - Since the peak of 683 HKD on October 2, 2025, Tencent's stock has shown a pattern of lower highs, with significant resistance levels at 683 HKD, 662 HKD, and 639 HKD [2]. - Despite a more than twofold increase in stock price since October 2022, recent profit-taking and reduced inflow from southbound funds have led to weaker performance compared to the Hang Seng Index [2]. Group 2: Analyst Reports and Business Developments - On January 15, Tencent shared significant updates during the WeChat Open Class PRO event, including over 5 billion uses of WeChat mini-programs globally and a 320% increase in transaction volume for WeChat stores from August to December 2025 [3]. - CICC maintained a "outperform" rating for Tencent with a target price of 700 HKD, while slightly adjusting revenue forecasts for 2026 down by 1% to 831.7 billion HKD [3]. - UBS highlighted Tencent's restructuring in its AI division and the recruitment of top talent, reinforcing its position as a preferred stock with a target price of 780 HKD [4]. Group 3: Share Buybacks and Market Sentiment - Tencent has been actively repurchasing shares, buying back 1.017 million shares at prices between 619 HKD and 632 HKD on January 15, totaling 636 million HKD [5]. - Since November 18, 2025, Tencent has repurchased over 40 million shares for more than 25 billion HKD, reflecting confidence in its long-term value [5]. - Analysts suggest that while Tencent's stock has lagged recently, it has performed better than many large tech stocks since its low point below 200 HKD at the end of 2022, indicating a need for time to digest profit-taking [5].

Group 1: Core Drivers - Policy incentives are accelerating, with the central economic work conference emphasizing "technological innovation" and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology promoting domestic AI chip procurement, establishing a 100 billion yuan industry fund, and aiming for a 70% localization rate of key equipment by 2025 [1] - Global liquidity is improving, as the central bank's 0.5% reserve requirement ratio cut releases 1.2 trillion yuan in liquidity, alongside a reduction in long-term holding risk factors for insurance companies, releasing approximately 20 billion yuan in capital [1] - The Hang Seng Tech Index constituents are showing strong performance, with companies like SMIC reporting a nearly 130% quarter-on-quarter net profit increase, and Li Auto's retail penetration rate for new energy vehicles exceeding 50% for the first time [1] Group 2: Tencent's Financial and Strategic Dynamics - Tencent's revenue for 2024 is projected at 660.3 billion yuan, an 8% year-on-year increase, with net profit expected to reach 194.07 billion yuan, reflecting a 68% growth [4] - The AI strategy is being upgraded with the MoE architecture for the Mix Yuan model, applied in over 700 scenarios, and a partnership with DeepSeek has driven the DAU of the Yuanbao App to 3.6 million [4] - Tencent's capital expenditure on AI is projected to be 76.7 billion yuan in 2024, a 221% increase, but efficiency improvements in GPU and cloud business returns are expected to cover costs, keeping profit margin pressures manageable [4] Group 3: Market Impact and Future Outlook - Structural opportunities are emerging in sectors like technology, consumption, and pharmaceuticals, driven by policy and demand, particularly in the AI industry chain, new energy vehicles, and biomedicine [6] - The Hang Seng Tech Index's price-to-earnings ratio is approximately 23 times, significantly lower than that of the Nasdaq and ChiNext, indicating strong value [7] - Institutional earnings forecasts for the Hang Seng Tech Index are optimistic, with a projected 42.6% earnings growth rate by 2026, and Tencent's gaming business expected to grow by 10% in 2025 [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tencent Holdings [1][28]. Core Insights - The core business remains robust, with a focus on the progress of WeChat AI [2]. - The company is expected to achieve a revenue of 1,954 billion RMB in Q4 2025, representing a year-over-year growth of 13% [7]. - The report highlights strong growth in gaming and advertising sectors, with AI continuing to empower the entire ecosystem [25]. Financial Performance Forecast 1. **Overall Performance**: - Expected revenue for Q4 2025 is 1,954 billion RMB (YoY +13%), with gross profit margin projected at 20% (YoY +3.0 percentage points) [7][10]. - Non-IFRS net profit is anticipated to be 651 billion RMB, also reflecting an 18% year-over-year increase [7][25]. 2. **Gaming Sector**: - Revenue from gaming is projected to grow by 21% year-over-year in Q4 2025, with domestic and overseas markets expected to grow by 17% and 28%, respectively [8][12]. - Key titles such as "Delta Force" and "Valorant Mobile" are expected to contribute significantly to revenue growth [11]. 3. **Advertising Services**: - Revenue from marketing services is expected to increase by 16% year-over-year in Q4 2025, driven by the WeChat ecosystem and strong performance in video and search ads [14][15]. - Video ads are projected to grow by over 40%, while search ads are expected to see a 50% increase [17]. 4. **Financial Technology and Enterprise Services**: - Revenue is expected to grow by 10% year-over-year in Q4 2025, with payment services showing steady growth and cloud services anticipated to exceed 20% growth [23][24]. Profitability and Valuation - The report adjusts profitability expectations, forecasting revenues of 7,528 billion RMB, 8,475 billion RMB, and 9,315 billion RMB for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [25]. - Non-IFRS net profit is projected to be 2,600 billion RMB, 2,992 billion RMB, and 3,384 billion RMB for the same years [25]. - The target market capitalization for Tencent Holdings is set at 6.5 trillion RMB, corresponding to a target price of 791 HKD [25][26].

Company Overview - Tencent's main businesses in gaming, advertising, finance, and enterprise services are expected to maintain high-quality growth, with AI accelerating talent deployment [1] Gaming Performance - Domestic gaming revenue is projected to grow by 12% year-on-year in Q4, supported by stable performance of established games like "Honor of Kings" and rising revenue from new titles like "Delta Action" [1] - Overseas gaming growth is expected to normalize with a 24% year-on-year increase in Q4, driven by high revenue from Supercell's "Clash Royale" [1] - For 2026, revenue growth is anticipated to be influenced by deferred income from high revenue in 2025 and upcoming titles such as "Honor of Kings World" and "Crossfire: Rainbow" [1] Advertising and Financial Services - Advertising revenue is expected to grow by 19% year-on-year in Q4 2025, with healthy growth anticipated in 2026 due to deeper utilization of ecosystems like video accounts and mini-programs, as well as enhanced user engagement through AI [2] - Financial and enterprise services revenue is projected to grow by 10% year-on-year in Q4 2025, with financial services experiencing a potential slowdown in payment growth due to macroeconomic disturbances [2] - Enterprise services are expected to benefit from revenue growth in video account e-commerce technology services and cloud computing [2] AI Strategy and R&D Investment - Tencent's AI strategy is entering an accelerated phase, with significant R&D investments expected to continue growing [2] - The appointment of former OpenAI researcher Yao Shunyu as Chief AI Scientist and the release of the 2.0 version of the mixed Yuan model in December highlight the company's commitment to AI development [2] Financial Forecast and Valuation - Revenue forecasts for 2025 remain unchanged, while the 2026 revenue forecast has been slightly reduced by 1% to 831.7 billion yuan [2] - Non-IFRS profit estimates for 2025 and 2026 have been increased by 1% to 262.9 billion yuan and 294.8 billion yuan, respectively, with new projections for 2027 set at 903.5 billion yuan in revenue and 326.9 billion yuan in profit [2] Rating and Target Price - The company maintains a "outperform" rating with a target price of 700 HKD, corresponding to 19x/17x 2026e/2027e Non-IFRS P/E, indicating an 11% upside from the current stock price [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Tencent Holdings (00700.HK) is "Buy" with a current price of 617.50 HKD and a fair value estimate of 744.46 HKD [2]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes that advertising and gaming continue to show strong momentum, with significant investments in AI infrastructure [3][7]. - The forecast for Q4 2025 anticipates revenue of 1,947 billion RMB, representing a year-over-year growth of 13% [7]. - The report projects that Tencent's revenue will reach 7,522 billion RMB in 2025 and 8,290 billion RMB in 2026, with corresponding growth rates of 13.9% and 10.2% respectively [7][24]. Financial Projections - Revenue (in billion RMB): - 2023A: 6,090 - 2024A: 6,603 - 2025E: 7,522 - 2026E: 8,290 - 2027E: 8,973 - Growth Rates (%): - 2023A: 9.8% - 2024A: 8.4% - 2025E: 13.9% - 2026E: 10.2% - 2027E: 8.2% [4]. - Adjusted Net Profit (in billion RMB): - 2023A: 1,577 - 2024A: 2,227 - 2025E: 2,564 - 2026E: 2,929 - 2027E: 3,235 - Growth Rates (%): - 2023A: 36.4% - 2024A: 41.2% - 2025E: 15.1% - 2026E: 14.2% - 2027E: 10.5% [4]. Business Segment Performance - Gaming revenue for Q4 2025 is expected to reach 574 billion RMB, with a year-over-year growth of 17% [7]. - Social network revenue is projected at 324 billion RMB for Q4 2025, reflecting a 9% year-over-year increase [7]. - Marketing services revenue is anticipated to be 421 billion RMB for Q4 2025, showing a 20% year-over-year growth [7]. Valuation Methodology - The report employs a Sum-of-the-Parts (SOTP) valuation method, estimating the fair value of Tencent's core business at 6.35 trillion HKD, leading to a total fair value of 744.46 HKD per share [24][27].

今年以来该股累计进行10次回购，合计回购1020.50万股，累计回购金额63.58亿港元。（数据宝） 证券时报·数据宝统计，腾讯控股在港交所公告显示，1月15日以每股619.000港元至632.000港元的价格 回购101.70万股，回购金额达6.36亿港元。该股当日收盘价622.000港元，下跌1.74%，全天成交额 163.73亿港元。 自2025年11月18日以来公司已连续40日进行回购，合计回购4147.70万股，累计回购金额254.29亿港元。 其间该股累计下跌2.28%。 腾讯控股回购明细 | 日期 | 回购股数（万股） | 回购最高价（港元） | 回购最低价（港元） | 回购金额（万港元） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2026.01.15 | 101.70 | 632.000 | 619.000 | 63563.02 | | 2026.01.14 | 100.60 | 638.000 | 626.000 | 63596.46 | | 2026.01.13 | 101.20 | 638.000 | 623.000 | 63595.68 | | 2026. ...

Group 1 - Tencent Holdings repurchased 1.017 million shares on January 15 at prices ranging from HKD 619.000 to HKD 632.000, totaling HKD 635.63 million [1] - The stock closed at HKD 622.000 on the same day, reflecting a decline of 1.74%, with a total trading volume of HKD 16.373 billion [1] - Since November 18, 2025, the company has conducted share buybacks for 40 consecutive days, repurchasing a total of 41.477 million shares for a cumulative amount of HKD 25.429 billion [1] Group 2 - Year-to-date, Tencent has completed 10 buybacks, acquiring a total of 10.205 million shares for a total expenditure of HKD 6.358 billion [1] - During the buyback period, the stock has experienced a cumulative decline of 2.28% [1] - The detailed buyback data shows varying prices and amounts, with the highest buyback price recorded at HKD 638.000 and the lowest at HKD 600.500 [1]