Toast(TOST)
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Constellation Brands: I'm Not Sure Berkshire's Bet Will Be A Toast (Earnings Preview)
Seeking Alpha· 2025-06-26 17:53
Group 1 - The focus is on long-term growth and dividend growth investing, emphasizing the importance of profitability over low valuation [1] - The analysis prioritizes margins, free cash flow stability and growth, and returns on invested capital as key metrics for evaluating companies [1] - The approach involves thorough research of stocks within specific areas of competence, particularly high-quality companies [1]
Can Toast Sustain Healthy Net Additions in Q2 and Beyond?
ZACKS· 2025-06-26 15:30
Core Insights - Toast Inc (TOST) started 2025 with strong momentum, adding over 6,000 net locations in Q1 2025, totaling approximately 140,000 customer locations globally, reflecting a 25% year-over-year growth [1] - The company aims to achieve record net additions in the current quarter and expects 2025 to surpass 2024's full-year net additions [1] - Toast is focusing on expanding its presence in the U.S. SMB restaurant market, with only 10% penetration into its total addressable market (TAM) of 1.4 million locations, indicating significant long-term growth potential [1] - The company is also pursuing growth in three new areas: enterprise, international, and food & beverage retail, targeting over 10,000 locations by the end of 2025 in these segments [1] Technology and Innovation - Toast's AI-powered tools, such as Sous Chef and ToastIQ, are enhancing its competitive edge in restaurant technology [2] - The company has improved its reporting, payroll, and accounting tools, and introduced a Benchmarking tool to assist restaurants in managing costs [2] - These advancements position Toast as a full-stack solutions provider, which is expected to support its growth trajectory beyond the current quarter [2] Financial Projections - Toast projects a 26% growth in fintech and subscription gross profit for 2025 at the midpoint, with adjusted EBITDA estimated at $550 million and a 31% margin, reflecting a five percentage point increase from 2024 [3] Market Environment - Management is closely monitoring the macro environment, acknowledging the restaurant industry's sensitivity to consumer spending, labor inflation, and supply chain volatility [4] - A downturn in consumer spending or increased cost pressures could potentially impact restaurant technology budgets, affecting TOST's performance [4] Competitive Landscape - Competitor Lightspeed Commerce Inc. is pivoting towards North America's Retail and Europe's Hospitality sectors, reporting a 3% year-over-year increase in customer locations and a 6% rise in GTV for these customers [5][6] - Block, Inc. offers a comprehensive commerce ecosystem, including Square for Restaurants, which competes directly with TOST's offerings, generating $1.48 billion in transaction revenues, up 5.9% year over year [7][8] Stock Performance and Valuation - TOST shares gained 13.9% year to date, slightly underperforming the Internet-Software industry's growth of 14.2% [9] - The shares are currently trading at a price/book ratio of 12.34X, higher than the industry average of 6.49X [11] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for TOST's earnings for 2025 has remained unchanged over the past 30 days [12]
Can Toast Keep EBITDA Margins Above 30% With Cost Discipline?
ZACKS· 2025-06-26 15:26
Core Insights - Toast, Inc. (TOST) reported a strong first-quarter 2025 performance, with revenue increasing by 24.4% year-over-year to $1.34 billion and adjusted EBITDA reaching $133 million, reflecting a margin of approximately 32% [1][2] - The company is experiencing significant growth in annual recurring revenues, which reached $1.7 billion, a 31% increase year-over-year, and operates in about 140,000 locations, marking a 25% growth [3] - Toast has raised its full-year EBITDA outlook to around $550 million with a 31% margin, an increase from the previous estimate of $510-$530 million at a 30% margin [5] Financial Performance - Operating costs, excluding bad-debt charges, rose only about 12%, primarily due to increased spending on sales and marketing [2] - Free cash flow turned positive at $69 million, compared to a loss of $33 million a year ago [2] - Toast's adjusted EBITDA margin improved significantly, driven by gross profit growth and strict cost discipline [1][2] Market Position and Growth Potential - Toast has only 10% penetration into its total addressable market (TAM) of 1.4 million locations, indicating substantial long-term expansion opportunities [3] - The company is leveraging its scale to introduce new services, including AI-powered analytics and fintech products, which contribute to revenue without proportional cost increases [4] - Management anticipates record net additions in the current quarter, with expectations for 2025 to surpass 2024's full-year net additions [3] Competitive Landscape - Block (formerly Square) reported an adjusted EBITDA of $812.8 million for Q1 2025, with an operating margin of 8.1% [7] - Lightspeed Commerce (LSPD) achieved total revenues of $253.4 million in Q1 2025, with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 32% [9] - TOST's shares have increased by 61.4% over the past year, outperforming the Zacks Internet-Software industry's growth of 34.3% [12] Valuation Metrics - TOST trades at a forward price-to-sales ratio of 3.12X, which is lower than the industry's average of 5.76X [13] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for TOST's earnings for 2025 has been rising over the past 60 days, indicating positive market sentiment [14]
Toast vs. Lightspeed: Which POS Platform Stock Offers More Upside?
ZACKS· 2025-06-25 15:05
Core Insights - Toast Inc. (TOST) and Lightspeed Commerce Inc. (LSPD) are key players in the point-of-sale (POS) solutions market, with Toast focusing on restaurants and Lightspeed serving both restaurants and retail, making them direct competitors in the hospitality tech sector [1][2] Company Analysis: Toast Inc. (TOST) - TOST ended the first quarter with approximately 140,000 customer locations globally, reflecting a 25% year-over-year growth, and added over 6,000 net locations in the same period [3][9] - The company has only 10% penetration into its total addressable market (TAM) of 1.4 million locations, indicating significant long-term growth potential [3] - TOST is expanding into three new growth areas: enterprise, international, and food & beverage retail, with a target of exceeding 10,000 locations in these segments by the end of 2025 [4] - The introduction of AI-powered tools, such as Sous Chef and ToastIQ, is enhancing TOST's platform and improving operational efficiency for restaurant operators [5] - Despite strong growth, TOST faces challenges such as a 3% year-over-year decline in gross payment volume (GPV) per location, indicating lower average transaction volumes [7] Company Analysis: Lightspeed Commerce Inc. (LSPD) - LSPD reported an 18% revenue increase in fiscal 2025, surpassing $1 billion in annual revenues for the first time [8] - The company is strategically focusing on North American retail and European hospitality, with customer locations in these markets increasing over 3% year-over-year [10] - LSPD is investing heavily in innovation, with a 35% increase in product development budget for fiscal 2026 compared to fiscal 2025 [11] - Transaction-based revenues for LSPD rose 14% to $157.8 million, with GPV increasing by 40%, showcasing strong growth in its payments segment [12] - However, LSPD is also facing macroeconomic challenges, with a revenue growth guidance of 10% to 12% for the current fiscal year, lower than the previous year's 18% growth [13] Market Comparison - TOST shares have appreciated by 5.2%, while LSPD shares have gained 11.7% [16] - Valuation metrics indicate that both companies are overvalued, with TOST trading at a Price/Book ratio of 13.28X compared to LSPD's 1.04X [18] - Analysts have slightly revised earnings estimates upward for TOST, while LSPD has seen a marginal downward revision for the current year [20][22] - Despite facing similar macro and competitive challenges, LSPD's diversified revenue base across multiple sectors makes it a more compelling investment option compared to TOST's restaurant-heavy model [22]
Toast (TOST) Outperforms Broader Market: What You Need to Know
ZACKS· 2025-06-23 23:01
Group 1 - Toast's stock increased by 2.38% to $43.36, outperforming the S&P 500's daily gain of 0.96% [1] - Over the past month, Toast's shares have decreased by 0.33%, underperforming the Computer and Technology sector's gain of 2.53% and the S&P 500's gain of 0.5% [1] Group 2 - Upcoming earnings disclosure is expected to show an EPS of $0.23, a 1050% increase year-over-year, with projected revenue of $1.53 billion, reflecting a 23.45% rise [2] - For the full year, earnings are projected at $0.95 per share and revenue at $6.01 billion, representing increases of 3066.67% and 21.23% respectively from the prior year [3] Group 3 - Recent revisions to analyst forecasts for Toast are important as they indicate changing near-term business trends, with positive revisions suggesting a favorable outlook on business health and profitability [4] - Estimate revisions are correlated with near-term share price momentum, which is utilized in the Zacks Rank system to provide a rating [5] Group 4 - The Zacks Rank system, ranging from 1 (Strong Buy) to 5 (Strong Sell), has shown an average annual return of +25% for 1 stocks since 1988, with Toast currently holding a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold) [6] Group 5 - Toast's Forward P/E ratio is 44.67, indicating a premium compared to the industry average Forward P/E of 27.81 [7] - The Internet - Software industry, part of the Computer and Technology sector, has a Zacks Industry Rank of 54, placing it in the top 22% of over 250 industries [7][8]
Can TOST's Tech-Driven Recipes Spice Up its Profitability & Revenue?
ZACKS· 2025-06-18 14:01
Core Insights - Toast Inc. (TOST) is expanding its presence across various geographies and segments, targeting not only small and medium-sized restaurants but also food & beverage retail and enterprise chains, currently supporting around 140,000 locations globally [1][9] - The company's strategy focuses on scaling locations, demonstrating growth in new markets, increasing platform adoption with a data and AI focus, and maintaining high standards while gradually expanding margins [2][7] Product and Technology Developments - Toast has developed an all-in-one platform tailored for the restaurant industry, leveraging AI to enhance usability and efficiency for operators [3] - The introduction of Sous Chef, an AI assistant for restaurant operators, is currently in pilot testing and aims to provide business insights and manage various operational tasks [4] - ToastIQ, an AI-powered intelligence engine, has shown positive impacts for early adopters, enhancing the platform's capabilities [5] Operational Enhancements - Recent updates for front-of-house staff include improvements to POS systems, kiosks, and kitchen displays, along with new tools for guest engagement such as Websites, Branded Apps, and AI-powered SMS Marketing [6] - The company has also introduced enhanced reporting, payroll, accounting tools, and a Benchmarking tool to help restaurants manage costs [6] Financial Performance - Toast has raised its full-year outlook, now expecting a 26% growth in fintech and subscription gross profit, with adjusted EBITDA estimated at $550 million and a 31% margin, reflecting a five-point increase from previous estimates [7][9] - TOST shares have gained 76.7% over the past year, outperforming the Zacks Internet-Software industry's growth of 37.2% [11] Valuation Metrics - TOST trades at a forward price-to-sales ratio of 3.2X, which is lower than the industry's average of 5.68X, indicating potential undervaluation [12] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for TOST's earnings for 2025 has been rising over the past 60 days, suggesting positive market sentiment [13]
TOST Stock Rises 19% in Three Months: Time to Hold or Make an Exit?
ZACKS· 2025-06-16 14:11
Core Insights - Toast, Inc. (TOST) shares have increased by 19.2% over the past three months, outperforming the Internet Software market and the Zacks Computer & Technology sector, which grew by 12.5% and 9.7% respectively [1] - TOST is a leading provider of software-as-a-service (SaaS) and hardware solutions focused on the restaurant market [1] Price Performance - TOST stock declined by 2.4% recently, closing at $41.54, which is close to its 52-week high of $45.56 [4] - Despite recent momentum, there are pros and cons to consider regarding the stock's future performance [4] Challenges - The macro environment is uncertain due to escalating trade wars, which raise concerns about increased costs and reduced consumer purchasing power [5] - The restaurant industry is sensitive to consumer spending, labor inflation, and supply chain volatility, which could impact TOST's performance [6] - A decline in Gross Payment Volume (GPV) per location is a concern, with overall GPV increasing by 22% year over year to $42 billion, but GPV per location declining by 3% year over year [7] - Operating expenses increased by 12% in the last reported quarter, with sales and marketing expenses growing by 25% year over year [9] Competitive Landscape - TOST faces competitive pressure from various players, including Block (formerly Square), Oracle, and Lightspeed, each with different market approaches [11] - Oracle offers a range of products targeting large restaurant chains, while Lightspeed provides a comprehensive commerce platform for various businesses [12] Valuation Concerns - TOST's stock is considered expensive, trading at a price/book multiple of 12.35X compared to the industry's 6.26X, indicating a stretched valuation [16] - The company's Value Style Score of F suggests that the stock may not be a good value at this time [15] Investment Thesis - TOST faces challenges such as an uncertain macro environment, competitive threats, and stretched valuation, suggesting that recent stock gains may present an opportunity to exit before potential downturns [18]
Toast(TOST) - 2025 FY - Earnings Call Transcript
2025-06-13 16:30
Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The meeting confirmed the election of Paul Bell and Hilary Koplaw McAdams as Class I directors, each serving a three-year term until the 2028 Annual Meeting [8] - The proposal to ratify Ernst and Young LLP as the independent registered public accounting firm for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2025, was approved [13] - The advisory nonbinding proposal regarding the compensation of named executives was also approved [13] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - No specific business line data or key metrics were discussed in the meeting [10] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - No specific market data or key metrics were provided during the meeting [10] Company Strategy and Development Direction and Industry Competition - The company emphasized its mission to support the restaurant community in delighting guests and thriving in their operations [16] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed gratitude towards shareholders, employees, customers, and partners for their continued support and dedication [15] - The company highlighted its commitment to helping the restaurant community succeed [16] Other Important Information - The meeting was held virtually to enhance inclusivity and reduce attendance burdens for stockholders [2] - Approximately 89% of the voting power was present, confirming a quorum for the meeting [6] Q&A Session Summary - No relevant questions were submitted by stockholders during the meeting [10]
Toast: Software Platform And AI Are Serving Up Sizzling Growth
Seeking Alpha· 2025-05-20 15:35
Core Insights - Toast (NYSE: TOST) has experienced significant upward momentum in its stock price, attributed to positive news regarding its Q1 2025 earnings report and profitability [1] Company Summary - The recent earnings report for Q1 2025 has positively impacted Toast's stock performance, indicating strong financial results and profitability [1] Analyst Disclosure - There is no current stock or derivative position held by the analyst in Toast, but there is potential for initiating a long position in the near future [2]
Toast's Inflection Point Could Send It To $60 -- Why I'm Long
Seeking Alpha· 2025-05-19 15:29
Group 1 - Michael Wiggins De Oliveira is an inflection investor, focusing on buying undervalued companies at pivotal moments when their profitability is expected to improve significantly over the next year [1] - The investment strategy emphasizes technology and the Great Energy Transition, including uranium, with a concentrated portfolio of approximately 15 to 20 stocks and an average holding period of 18 months [1] - Michael has over 10 years of experience analyzing companies in tech and energy sectors, and has built a following of over 40,000 on Seeking Alpha [2] Group 2 - The Investing Group Deep Value Returns, led by Michael, offers insights through its concentrated portfolio of value stocks, timely updates on stock picks, and a weekly webinar for live advice [3] - The group provides "hand-holding" support for both new and experienced investors, fostering an active and kind community accessible via chat [3]