Core Viewpoint - Toast (NYSE: TOST) is currently near its 52-week high, which raises concerns about its valuation, but this perspective may overlook the operational momentum that supports its future earnings potential [1] Group 1: Company Performance - The analysis indicates that operational momentum is a key driver for Toast's future earnings, suggesting that the current valuation may not fully reflect its growth potential [1] - A simulation of 10,000 scenarios was conducted to better capture Toast's future earning potential, indicating a thorough analytical approach to understanding the company's prospects [1] Group 2: Analyst Background - The analyst has a diverse background, having worked in the Industrials and chemicals sector and as a Manager of Finance & Technology at a Canadian charity, which enriches the analysis of Toast [1] - The experience in both execution and analysis is highlighted as a factor that enhances the quality of the investment insights provided [1]

Group 1 - Michael Wiggins De Oliveira is an inflection investor, focusing on buying undervalued companies at pivotal moments when their profitability is expected to improve significantly over the next year [1] - The investment strategy emphasizes technology and the Great Energy Transition, including uranium, with a concentrated portfolio of approximately 15 to 20 stocks and an average holding period of 18 months [1] - Michael has over 10 years of experience analyzing companies in tech and energy sectors, and has built a following of over 40,000 on Seeking Alpha [2] Group 2 - The Investing Group Deep Value Returns, led by Michael, offers insights through its concentrated portfolio of value stocks, timely updates on stock picks, and a weekly webinar for live advice [3] - The group provides "hand-holding" support for both new and experienced investors, fostering an active and kind community accessible via chat [3]

Core Insights - Investors should focus on companies with strong growth potential, competitive advantages, and adaptability to technology trends Group 1: Nvidia - Nvidia is the leader in AI infrastructure, holding a 92% market share in Q1 [2] - The company's competitive edge lies in its CUDA software platform, which has been widely adopted in research and development [3] - Nvidia is expanding into new markets, including autonomous driving, while recently receiving approval to sell H20 chips in China [4] Group 2: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing - Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing is the leading chip foundry, producing chips for major companies like Nvidia and Apple [6] - The company has seen a rise in revenue from high-performance computing, which now constitutes 60% of its revenue, up from 52% a year ago [7] - TSMC's advanced manufacturing capabilities position it as a key player in the growing AI and autonomous driving markets [8] Group 3: Meta Platforms - Meta Platforms is leveraging AI to enhance its digital advertising capabilities, increasing user engagement on Facebook and Instagram [9] - The company is beginning to monetize WhatsApp and Threads, which have significant user bases, providing a long growth runway [10] - CEO Mark Zuckerberg is investing heavily in AI talent to achieve ambitious goals, positioning Meta as a potential leader in AI [11] Group 4: GitLab - GitLab is evolving into a comprehensive software development lifecycle platform, integrating AI to enhance development processes [12] - The introduction of over 30 new features in GitLab 18 aims to improve efficiency across the software development lifecycle [13] - GitLab's focus on AI-driven solutions positions it well for future growth in an increasingly AI-centric software landscape [13] Group 5: Toast - Toast is becoming essential in the restaurant industry by providing software that enhances operational efficiency and sales [14] - The integration of AI tools like ToastIQ is helping restaurants make data-driven decisions in real time [15] - As restaurants face economic pressures, Toast's technology solutions offer significant growth opportunities in a large and fragmented market [16]

Company Performance - Toast (TOST) stock closed at $47.31, reflecting a +1.7% change from the previous day's closing price, outperforming the S&P 500 which gained 0.14% [1] - The stock has increased by 9.85% over the past month, surpassing the Computer and Technology sector's gain of 7.37% and the S&P 500's gain of 5.35% [1] Upcoming Earnings - Analysts expect Toast to report earnings of $0.24 per share, indicating a year-over-year growth of 1100% [2] - Revenue is anticipated to be $1.53 billion, representing a 23.44% increase from the same quarter last year [2] Full-Year Estimates - Zacks Consensus Estimates project earnings of $0.95 per share and revenue of $6.01 billion for the full year, reflecting year-over-year changes of +3066.67% and +21.2%, respectively [3] - Recent changes in analyst estimates suggest positive sentiment regarding Toast's business and profitability [3] Valuation Metrics - Toast has a Forward P/E ratio of 49.07, which is a premium compared to the industry average Forward P/E of 29.16 [6] - The Internet - Software industry, part of the Computer and Technology sector, holds a Zacks Industry Rank of 79, placing it in the top 32% of over 250 industries [6] Zacks Rank System - The Zacks Rank system, which ranges from 1 (Strong Buy) to 5 (Strong Sell), indicates that Toast currently has a Zacks Rank of 4 (Sell) [5] - The Zacks Rank system has shown an average annual return of +25% for 1 ranked stocks since 1988 [5]

Group 1 - Toast, Inc. (NYSE: TOST) is gaining traction in the fintech sector but is currently trading at high valuations [1] - Block, Inc. (NYSE: XYZ) has not recovered from its all-time highs and is trading at lower valuations [1] - Julian Lin, a financial analyst, focuses on identifying undervalued companies with long-term growth potential and strong management [1] Group 2 - The investment group led by Julian Lin emphasizes stocks with a high probability of delivering significant alpha compared to the S&P 500 [1] - The investment strategy combines growth-oriented principles with strict valuation criteria to enhance the margin of safety [1]

Core Insights - Toast, Inc. (TOST) shares have increased by 21.6% year to date, outperforming the Internet Software market and the Zacks Computer & Technology sector, which grew by 14.6% and 8.4% respectively, while the S&P 500 returned 5.6% in the same period [1] Company Performance - TOST closed at $44.34, down 0.3% recently, and is near its 52-week high of $46.57 [4] - The company registered over 6,000 net locations in Q1 2025, totaling approximately 140,000 customer locations globally, reflecting a 25% year-over-year growth [7] - Toast achieved an adjusted EBITDA margin of 32%, exceeding its medium-term target of 30-35%, attributed to disciplined expense management [8] - Free cash flow turned positive at $69 million, compared to a $33 million loss a year ago [9] Growth Opportunities - Toast is expanding in the U.S. SMB restaurant market, with significant wins like Applebee's and Topgolf, and has only 10% penetration in its total addressable market of 1.4 million locations, indicating substantial long-term growth potential [5] - The company is targeting to exceed 10,000 locations by the end of 2025 across new growth areas: enterprise, international, and food & beverage retail [6] - Toast projects a 26% growth in fintech and subscription gross profit for 2025, with an estimated adjusted EBITDA of $550 million and a 31% margin, up five percentage points from 2024 [10] Challenges - The decline in Gross Payment Volume (GPV) per location poses a challenge, with GPV per location down 3% year-over-year, despite overall GPV increasing by 22% to $42 billion in Q1 [12] - The restaurant industry remains sensitive to consumer spending, labor inflation, and supply-chain volatility, which could impact TOST's performance [11] - TOST's stock is considered expensive, trading at a price/book multiple of 13.20X compared to the industry's 6.57X, indicating a stretched valuation [16] Investment Outlook - Despite headwinds, Toast's focus on expanding its addressable market and strategic investments in AI support long-term upside [17] - The company is currently rated Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), suggesting long-term investors should maintain their positions while new entrants may benefit from waiting for a more favorable entry point [18]

Core Insights - Samuel Adams has renewed its multiyear partnership with the Boston Red Sox, remaining the team's Official Beer for the next decade, which began in 2018 [1][3] - The partnership will also include other Boston Beer brands such as Angry Orchard, Truly, and Twisted Tea [1] - The collaboration emphasizes the deep roots of both brands in Boston and their commitment to enhancing the fan experience at Fenway Park [3] Company Overview - Samuel Adams is a leading independent American craft brewer, founded in 1984, known for its flagship Boston Lager and its role in the craft beer revolution [6][7] - The Boston Beer Company, which owns Samuel Adams, has expanded its portfolio to include hard cider, hard seltzer, and hard tea, with a focus on innovation and quality [8] - The company has a philanthropic program called Brewing the American Dream, aimed at supporting entrepreneurs and fellow brewers [6] Partnership Details - The Sam Deck in right field at Fenway Park remains a popular destination for fans, with over 275,000 pints of Sam Adams served [2] - The partnership will feature special events, including watch parties at the Downtown Boston Taproom and Boston Brewery, and the introduction of a new beer, Grand Slam Adams, for the Sox season [3][4] - Samuel Adams has a history of community involvement, including being the official beer of the Boston Marathon and supporting local charities [4]

Group 1 - Toast's stock price decreased by 2.84% to $43.03, underperforming the S&P 500's daily loss of 0.11% [1] - Over the past month, Toast's shares increased by 3.02%, while the Computer and Technology sector and the S&P 500 gained 8.76% and 5.17%, respectively [1] Group 2 - Toast is expected to report an EPS of $0.23, reflecting a significant increase of 1050% compared to the same quarter last year [2] - The projected revenue for the upcoming earnings release is $1.53 billion, which is a 23.45% increase from the previous year [2] Group 3 - For the entire fiscal year, earnings are projected at $0.95 per share, representing a 3066.67% increase, and revenue is expected to be $6 billion, up 21.06% from the prior year [3] - Recent changes to analyst estimates for Toast can indicate short-term business trends, with positive revisions suggesting an optimistic outlook [3] Group 4 - The Zacks Rank system, which evaluates estimate changes, has shown a correlation with stock price performance, with stocks rated 1 historically producing an average annual return of +25% since 1988 [4][5] - Currently, Toast holds a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold) [5] Group 5 - Toast's Forward P/E ratio is 46.72, indicating a premium compared to the industry average Forward P/E of 29.16 [6] - The Internet - Software industry, part of the Computer and Technology sector, has a Zacks Industry Rank of 40, placing it in the top 17% of over 250 industries [6] Group 6 - The Zacks Industry Rank assesses the performance of industry groups, with the top 50% rated industries outperforming the bottom half by a factor of 2 to 1 [7]

Company Overview - Toast, Inc. is a cloud-based restaurant management platform providing integrated hardware and software solutions for full-service and quick-service restaurant industries [3][4] - The company has rapidly expanded since its first product launch in 2013, serving independent restaurants, multi-location chains, and franchise groups across the U.S. [4] Market Performance - Toast's shares are up over 21% year-to-date and nearly 200% over the past three years, despite a high P/E ratio of 187.35 [2][5] - The company's market capitalization stands at $25.6 billion, placing it in the mid-cap category [5] Financial Performance - For Q1 2025, Toast reported EPS of $0.10, a 167% year-over-year increase, and revenue of $1.34 billion, up 24.7% [8] - The company achieved a net income of $56 million, a 75% quarter-over-quarter increase, and adjusted EBITDA of $133 million [8] - Annual recurring revenue (ARR) grew by 31%, with SaaS ARR climbing 32% [9] Growth Outlook - Toast raised its full-year 2025 outlook, projecting 26% growth in fintech and subscription gross profit and $550 million in adjusted EBITDA [10] - The stock price forecast is $41.21, with a moderate buy rating from analysts [7] Institutional Support - Over the past 12 months, $4.5 billion in institutional capital has flowed into Toast, with 82.9% of shares held by institutions [11] Technical Analysis - The stock is consolidating just below a key resistance area near $45, with $42 acting as short-term support [12][13]

Company Insights - Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC) reported first-quarter total revenues and other income of $31.85 billion, exceeding the consensus estimate of $29.58 billion [1] - The adjusted EPS loss for Marathon Petroleum was $(0.24), an improvement from $(2.58) a year earlier, and better than the analyst consensus estimate of $(0.53) [1] - Aurora Innovation posted a first-quarter GAAP loss of 12 cents per share, which was in line with estimates [2] - QXO, Inc. proposed to acquire GMS for $95.20 per share in cash [2] - Toast (TOST) received a Buy rating from Truist Securities analyst Matthew Coad, with a price target of $48 [3] Stock Performance - Marathon Petroleum shares increased by 1.1% to settle at $167.52 [6] - Aurora Innovation shares rose by 2.1% to close at $5.40 [6] - QXO shares gained 1.4% to settle at $24.12 [6] - Toast shares experienced a 2.4% increase, closing at $42.49 [6]