Core Insights - TransUnion has launched a revised mortgage pricing model featuring VantageScore® 4.0, aimed at enhancing the mortgage market's safety and cost-effectiveness [1][3] - The new model offers a significant pricing advantage, with VantageScore 4.0 available for $4 per score in 2026, representing a 60% discount compared to FICO scores [1][3] - The introduction of VantageScore 4.0 is expected to lower costs for lenders and consumers while maintaining underwriting costs at 2025 levels [1][3] Company Overview - TransUnion is a global information and insights company with over 13,000 employees operating in more than 30 countries, focusing on providing reliable consumer representations in the marketplace [7] - The company aims to empower consumers and businesses through innovative solutions that extend beyond core credit services into marketing, fraud, risk, and advanced analytics [7] Industry Context - The mortgage industry has historically been constrained by FICO's monopoly, which has led to increased lending costs due to significant royalty hikes from FICO [3] - TransUnion's approach of bundling credit data with VantageScore 4.0 is designed to reduce costs and provide lenders with a more manageable pricing structure [3][5] - The new model is expected to enhance access to loans for qualified homebuyers while ensuring the safety and soundness of the U.S. mortgage market [5]

Core Insights - Francesca Noli has joined TransUnion as Executive Vice President of Global Consumer Solutions, focusing on the TruEmpower™ line of solutions to enhance consumer adoption of credit education and identity protection products [1][4] Group 1: Leadership and Experience - Noli brings over 20 years of experience in product and marketing leadership across various sectors, including financial services and gaming [2] - At Capital One, Noli led initiatives that generated hundreds of millions of dollars in revenue, transforming CreditWise into a high-performing business unit [2][3] Group 2: Strategic Vision - Noli's role will involve developing market strategies that leverage digital product development, customer engagement, and data-driven decision-making to enhance TruEmpower offerings [4] - TransUnion aims to empower businesses to help consumers improve their financial health and safeguard their identities through the adoption of TruEmpower solutions [5] Group 3: Company Overview - TransUnion operates globally with over 13,000 associates in more than 30 countries, focusing on providing reliable consumer insights and innovative solutions beyond core credit services [6]

Core Insights - TransUnion (TRU) shares have increased by 4.1% over the past month, outperforming the industry growth of 0.7% [1] - The company's Q4 2025 earnings are projected to rise by 5.2% year over year, with earnings expected to grow by 8.7% in 2025 and 13.1% in 2026 [1] - Revenue growth is anticipated at 8.5% in 2025 and 7.7% in 2026 [1] Factors Supporting Growth - TRU's revenue growth is fueled by the expanding Big Data and analytics market, supported by a stable U.S. economic and lending environment [2] - Key economic indicators such as modest GDP growth, low unemployment, stable delinquencies, lower interest rates, and manageable inflation are positively impacting performance [2] Technological Advancements - The OneTru platform is modernizing TRU's technology by integrating various data and analytic assets, enhancing innovation in credit and non-credit products [3] - The TrueIQ analytics platform, launched in Canada, the UK, and India, is designed to accelerate data processing and improve access for U.S. credit customers [4] - The recent introduction of TrueIQ data enrichment on Snowflake expands market opportunities for data enrichment [4] Financial Health - TRU's current ratio at the end of Q3 2025 was 2.01, significantly higher than the industry average of 0.98, indicating strong liquidity to meet short-term obligations [5] Competitive Landscape - TRU operates in a competitive market with major players like Equifax, Experian, FICO, and LexisNexis, which poses challenges in balancing growth and profitability while investing in technology and talent [6]

Core Insights - An increasing number of Americans are having their rent payments reported to credit bureaus, with 13% of renters experiencing this in 2025, up from 11% in 2024 [1] - Experts are divided on the implications of this trend, with some viewing it as a potential benefit for those with limited credit history, while others warn of negative consequences for struggling tenants [2][4] Group 1: Benefits of Rent Reporting - Reporting rent payments can help individuals build credit, potentially enabling them to secure mortgages in the future [1][3] - A 2021 TransUnion analysis indicated that including rent payments in credit reporting could increase credit scores by an average of 60 points [4] Group 2: Concerns and Challenges - Not all renters are self-reporting; some property managers report on behalf of tenants, which can lead to negative impacts if late payments are recorded [2] - The percentage of property managers reporting rent payments has decreased, suggesting that more renters are self-reporting through third-party agencies [3]

Core Insights - Car-loan delinquency rates are projected to rise for the fifth consecutive year in 2026, although the increases are becoming smaller [1] - Household debt has reached a record $18.6 trillion, with mortgage balances making up the majority at $13.07 trillion [2][4] - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower its benchmark rate only once or twice in 2026, which may not provide significant relief for borrowers [4] Household Debt - The total household debt in the U.S. has ballooned to $18.6 trillion, with mortgage balances being the largest component [4] - Non-housing balances, including credit cards and auto loans, have increased, with credit card balances at $1.23 trillion and auto balances at $1.66 trillion [2] Delinquency Rates - Car-loan delinquency rates are expected to rise, while credit card delinquencies are projected to remain stable [1] - Mortgage delinquencies are anticipated to increase slightly due to a modest rise in unemployment [1] Lending Environment - Lenders have tightened underwriting standards, particularly affecting low- and middle-income households [6] - The job market will significantly influence loan approval difficulties in the upcoming year [6][7] Interest Rate Outlook - The Federal Reserve has signaled a higher threshold for interest rate cuts in 2026, which may limit relief for those burdened with debt [4] - If the Fed does cut rates, borrowers could see significant savings on mortgages, with potential savings of $929 for a 25-basis-point cut on a $370,000 loan [10] Credit Card and Auto Loan Insights - Credit card APRs are more directly influenced by the federal-funds rate, but even a full percentage point cut would only save an average cardholder $65 annually [15] - For auto loans, a 25-basis-point cut on a $30,000 loan would save $74 a year, while a 100-basis-point cut would save $295 [13] Consumer Strategies - Consumers are encouraged to improve their credit scores to take advantage of potential rate cuts [16] - Strategies include addressing delinquencies, maintaining low credit utilization, and negotiating lower interest rates with credit card issuers [20][19]

Core Insights - TransUnion has appointed Sayan Chakraborty and Charlotte Yarkoni to its Board of Directors, effective January 5, 2026, to enhance its product and technology innovation [1][2] Group 1: Appointments - Sayan Chakraborty, 58, previously served as President of Workday, where he was responsible for Product and Technology from 2024 to 2025, and Co-President starting in 2023 [2] - Charlotte Yarkoni, 56, most recently served as President of Commerce, Ecosystems, Cloud and AI at Microsoft from 2022 to 2025, leading the company's digital commerce infrastructure and customer engagement platforms [4] Group 2: Experience and Expertise - Chakraborty has a strong background in technology, having held multiple senior roles at Workday and previously co-founding an AI/ML analytics company, GridCraft, which was acquired by Workday [3] - Yarkoni has held leadership positions at major companies including Telstra, VMware, and EMC, and currently serves on the Board of Directors of Fiserv [5] Group 3: Strategic Importance - The appointments are expected to drive innovation and growth at TransUnion, with Chakraborty's experience in product development and Yarkoni's expertise in cloud adoption being pivotal for the company's future in AI-enabled solutions [6]

J P M O R G A N North America Equity Research 15 December 2025 Information Services 2026 Outlook: We Expect a Constructive "Narrative Shift" on AI; TRU and SPGI Are Our Top Picks To hear more about key topics covered here, please join our 2026 Outlook Call, TODAY at 10:30AM ET /15:30 UKT. Register to participate here. Replay available within 24 hours on J.P. Morgan Markets at the link here. Info Services stocks underperformed the S&P 500 materially in 2025 with our market cap-weighted J.P. Morgan Info Servi ...

Core Insights - Americans' credit card balances are projected to increase by the smallest annual amount since 2013, with a forecasted growth of 2.3% in 2026, reaching $1.18 trillion [1] - The growth in credit card balances has cooled significantly from the spikes of 18.5% in 2022 and 12.6% in 2023, indicating a shift in consumer spending behavior [1] - Lenders have become more cautious in extending credit access following a surge in post-pandemic spending, leading to a stabilization of delinquencies [2][4] Consumer Behavior - Despite rising prices and a challenging economic outlook, consumers are showing resilience, with household balance sheets appearing "broadly solid" [6] - The K-shaped economy is evident, where higher-income individuals are thriving while those with lower incomes and credit scores are struggling, resulting in a shrinking middle class [5] Delinquency Trends - Delinquencies for auto loans are expected to grow slightly for the fifth consecutive year in 2026, but at a slower rate compared to previous years [5] - Personal loan delinquencies may also see a slight increase next year, but not as dramatically as the surge observed in 2022 [5]

Core Insights - TransUnion projects a 2.3% year-over-year growth in credit card balances for 2026, marking the smallest annual increase since 2013, excluding the pandemic year of 2020 [1][2][12] - Credit card balances are expected to reach $1.18 trillion by the end of 2026, up from $1.16 trillion in 2025, contrasting sharply with the double-digit growth seen in 2022 and 2023 [2][4] - Delinquency rates for credit cards are forecasted to remain stable, with a slight increase in the percentage of consumers 90 or more days past due (90+ DPD) to 2.57% [3][4][12] Credit Card Market Overview - The forecast indicates a cautious expansion of credit access for riskier consumer segments, with lenders focusing on account management strategies to mitigate delinquency risks [2][3] - Economic pressures, including inflation at 2.45% and a slight rise in unemployment to 4.5% by late 2026, may strain household budgets, yet anticipated Federal Reserve rate cuts could ease borrowing costs [6][12] Delinquency Trends - Delinquency rates across other credit products are expected to see slight increases, with auto loans projected at 1.54% (+3 bps YoY), mortgages at 1.65% (+11 bps YoY), and unsecured personal loans at 3.75% (+1 bps YoY) [10][11] - The growth in serious delinquency rates remains measured, indicating that consumers are managing their finances reasonably well despite economic uncertainties [8][12] Strategic Implications for Lenders - The trends of modest credit card balance growth and stable delinquency rates suggest opportunities for lenders to build deeper relationships with responsible borrowers while maintaining prudent risk management [12]

Core Insights - TransUnion has launched an enhanced Device Risk solution that improves device recognition, anomaly detection, and adaptive machine learning to help businesses combat fraud more effectively [1][4] - The rise in fraud is significant, costing businesses an average of 7.7% of annual revenue, which totals approximately $534 billion [2] - Financial institutions face challenges in identifying new or unfamiliar devices that match known fraud patterns, complicating early detection efforts [3] Device Risk Solution Enhancements - The Device Risk solution analyzes thousands of device attributes and behavioral signals in real time to create a unique device fingerprint, evaluating key risk indicators such as device integrity and behavioral patterns [5] - By utilizing adaptive machine learning, the solution continuously refines risk scoring and fraud detection strategies, allowing businesses to make instant decisions and enhance customer experiences [6] - Key features include cross-session device identification, advanced anomaly detection, and improved fraud detection rates by up to 50% compared to static recognition methods [7] Industry Impact - The enhanced Device Risk capabilities are crucial for industries where trust and security are paramount, such as financial services, retail, and digital platforms [7] - The solution helps organizations proactively block suspicious behaviors, thereby maintaining trust in digital interactions and protecting brand integrity [7][6]