Core Insights - The collaboration between TransUnion and Actable has led to a 10% improvement in AI-driven marketing predictions by integrating TransUnion's TruAudience® Marketing Solutions dataset into Actable's machine learning models [1][2] - The project aimed to address the challenge of re-engaging customers for a major retailer, resulting in a 19.5% reduction in false positives, thereby enhancing audience targeting and marketing efficiency [2][4] Data Importance - High-quality data is essential for effective AI performance, with TransUnion's identity graph covering over 98% of the U.S. population and providing more than 700 demographic attributes and 15,000 behavioral signals [3] Business Impact and Future Applications - The enhanced AI model allows for more efficient marketing resource allocation, particularly in costly win-back campaigns, and identifies future use cases as AI adoption increases [4]

Group 1 - TransUnion will release its financial results for Q4 2025 on February 12, 2026, at 6:00 a.m. Central Time [1] - A conference call to discuss the financial results will take place on the same day at 8:30 a.m. Central Time [1] - The press release and live webcast will be available on the TransUnion Investor Relations website [1] Group 2 - TransUnion is a global information and insights company with over 13,000 associates in more than 30 countries [2] - The company focuses on providing a reliable representation of individuals in the marketplace through actionable consumer insights [2] - TransUnion has expanded its services beyond core credit into marketing, fraud, risk, and advanced analytics through acquisitions and technology investments [2]

Core Insights - Canadians' financial optimism is declining due to rising living costs, with 53% stating their household income is not keeping pace with inflation [1][5] - A significant portion of Canadians (31%) are pessimistic about their financial situation in the next year, despite 20% reporting an income increase in the last three months [1][5] - Economic uncertainty is prompting Canadians to adjust their spending habits, with 67% seeking sales and discounts more frequently [4][5] Financial Strain - 25% of Canadians are unable to pay at least one current bill or loan in full, with credit card payments (63%) and personal loans (55%) being the most affected [2][3] - Over half (51%) of Canadians have cut back on discretionary spending, while 19% plan to reduce contributions to retirement funds [4][5] Recession Sentiment - 27% of Canadians believe the country is currently in a recession, and 32% expect one within the next year, leading 84% to prepare for potential economic downturns [3][4] Spending Adjustments - Canadians are increasingly prioritizing essential goods, with 85% changing shopping habits in response to economic conditions [5] - Common adjustments include reducing spending (61%), building savings (38%), and shopping at more affordable retailers (44%) [6] Credit Access and Intentions - 82% of Canadians view access to credit as essential for achieving financial goals, but only 56% feel they have sufficient access [7][10] - 21% plan to apply for new credit or refinance existing credit, with younger generations (47% of Gen Z and 31% of Millennials) leading this trend [8][9] Fraud Concerns - Nearly half (46%) of Canadians reported being targeted by fraud in the past three months, with younger Canadians being the most vulnerable [12][13] - Despite the risks, 36% of Canadians took no action to address cybersecurity concerns, highlighting a need for better education on fraud prevention [13]

Core Insights - TransUnion has launched a revised mortgage pricing model featuring VantageScore® 4.0, aimed at enhancing the mortgage market's safety and cost-effectiveness [1][3] - The new model offers a significant pricing advantage, with VantageScore 4.0 available for $4 per score in 2026, representing a 60% discount compared to FICO scores [1][3] - The introduction of VantageScore 4.0 is expected to lower costs for lenders and consumers while maintaining underwriting costs at 2025 levels [1][3] Company Overview - TransUnion is a global information and insights company with over 13,000 employees operating in more than 30 countries, focusing on providing reliable consumer representations in the marketplace [7] - The company aims to empower consumers and businesses through innovative solutions that extend beyond core credit services into marketing, fraud, risk, and advanced analytics [7] Industry Context - The mortgage industry has historically been constrained by FICO's monopoly, which has led to increased lending costs due to significant royalty hikes from FICO [3] - TransUnion's approach of bundling credit data with VantageScore 4.0 is designed to reduce costs and provide lenders with a more manageable pricing structure [3][5] - The new model is expected to enhance access to loans for qualified homebuyers while ensuring the safety and soundness of the U.S. mortgage market [5]

Core Insights - Francesca Noli has joined TransUnion as Executive Vice President of Global Consumer Solutions, focusing on the TruEmpower™ line of solutions to enhance consumer adoption of credit education and identity protection products [1][4] Group 1: Leadership and Experience - Noli brings over 20 years of experience in product and marketing leadership across various sectors, including financial services and gaming [2] - At Capital One, Noli led initiatives that generated hundreds of millions of dollars in revenue, transforming CreditWise into a high-performing business unit [2][3] Group 2: Strategic Vision - Noli's role will involve developing market strategies that leverage digital product development, customer engagement, and data-driven decision-making to enhance TruEmpower offerings [4] - TransUnion aims to empower businesses to help consumers improve their financial health and safeguard their identities through the adoption of TruEmpower solutions [5] Group 3: Company Overview - TransUnion operates globally with over 13,000 associates in more than 30 countries, focusing on providing reliable consumer insights and innovative solutions beyond core credit services [6]

Core Insights - TransUnion (TRU) shares have increased by 4.1% over the past month, outperforming the industry growth of 0.7% [1] - The company's Q4 2025 earnings are projected to rise by 5.2% year over year, with earnings expected to grow by 8.7% in 2025 and 13.1% in 2026 [1] - Revenue growth is anticipated at 8.5% in 2025 and 7.7% in 2026 [1] Factors Supporting Growth - TRU's revenue growth is fueled by the expanding Big Data and analytics market, supported by a stable U.S. economic and lending environment [2] - Key economic indicators such as modest GDP growth, low unemployment, stable delinquencies, lower interest rates, and manageable inflation are positively impacting performance [2] Technological Advancements - The OneTru platform is modernizing TRU's technology by integrating various data and analytic assets, enhancing innovation in credit and non-credit products [3] - The TrueIQ analytics platform, launched in Canada, the UK, and India, is designed to accelerate data processing and improve access for U.S. credit customers [4] - The recent introduction of TrueIQ data enrichment on Snowflake expands market opportunities for data enrichment [4] Financial Health - TRU's current ratio at the end of Q3 2025 was 2.01, significantly higher than the industry average of 0.98, indicating strong liquidity to meet short-term obligations [5] Competitive Landscape - TRU operates in a competitive market with major players like Equifax, Experian, FICO, and LexisNexis, which poses challenges in balancing growth and profitability while investing in technology and talent [6]

Core Insights - An increasing number of Americans are having their rent payments reported to credit bureaus, with 13% of renters experiencing this in 2025, up from 11% in 2024 [1] - Experts are divided on the implications of this trend, with some viewing it as a potential benefit for those with limited credit history, while others warn of negative consequences for struggling tenants [2][4] Group 1: Benefits of Rent Reporting - Reporting rent payments can help individuals build credit, potentially enabling them to secure mortgages in the future [1][3] - A 2021 TransUnion analysis indicated that including rent payments in credit reporting could increase credit scores by an average of 60 points [4] Group 2: Concerns and Challenges - Not all renters are self-reporting; some property managers report on behalf of tenants, which can lead to negative impacts if late payments are recorded [2] - The percentage of property managers reporting rent payments has decreased, suggesting that more renters are self-reporting through third-party agencies [3]

Core Insights - Car-loan delinquency rates are projected to rise for the fifth consecutive year in 2026, although the increases are becoming smaller [1] - Household debt has reached a record $18.6 trillion, with mortgage balances making up the majority at $13.07 trillion [2][4] - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower its benchmark rate only once or twice in 2026, which may not provide significant relief for borrowers [4] Household Debt - The total household debt in the U.S. has ballooned to $18.6 trillion, with mortgage balances being the largest component [4] - Non-housing balances, including credit cards and auto loans, have increased, with credit card balances at $1.23 trillion and auto balances at $1.66 trillion [2] Delinquency Rates - Car-loan delinquency rates are expected to rise, while credit card delinquencies are projected to remain stable [1] - Mortgage delinquencies are anticipated to increase slightly due to a modest rise in unemployment [1] Lending Environment - Lenders have tightened underwriting standards, particularly affecting low- and middle-income households [6] - The job market will significantly influence loan approval difficulties in the upcoming year [6][7] Interest Rate Outlook - The Federal Reserve has signaled a higher threshold for interest rate cuts in 2026, which may limit relief for those burdened with debt [4] - If the Fed does cut rates, borrowers could see significant savings on mortgages, with potential savings of $929 for a 25-basis-point cut on a $370,000 loan [10] Credit Card and Auto Loan Insights - Credit card APRs are more directly influenced by the federal-funds rate, but even a full percentage point cut would only save an average cardholder $65 annually [15] - For auto loans, a 25-basis-point cut on a $30,000 loan would save $74 a year, while a 100-basis-point cut would save $295 [13] Consumer Strategies - Consumers are encouraged to improve their credit scores to take advantage of potential rate cuts [16] - Strategies include addressing delinquencies, maintaining low credit utilization, and negotiating lower interest rates with credit card issuers [20][19]

Core Insights - TransUnion has appointed Sayan Chakraborty and Charlotte Yarkoni to its Board of Directors, effective January 5, 2026, to enhance its product and technology innovation [1][2] Group 1: Appointments - Sayan Chakraborty, 58, previously served as President of Workday, where he was responsible for Product and Technology from 2024 to 2025, and Co-President starting in 2023 [2] - Charlotte Yarkoni, 56, most recently served as President of Commerce, Ecosystems, Cloud and AI at Microsoft from 2022 to 2025, leading the company's digital commerce infrastructure and customer engagement platforms [4] Group 2: Experience and Expertise - Chakraborty has a strong background in technology, having held multiple senior roles at Workday and previously co-founding an AI/ML analytics company, GridCraft, which was acquired by Workday [3] - Yarkoni has held leadership positions at major companies including Telstra, VMware, and EMC, and currently serves on the Board of Directors of Fiserv [5] Group 3: Strategic Importance - The appointments are expected to drive innovation and growth at TransUnion, with Chakraborty's experience in product development and Yarkoni's expertise in cloud adoption being pivotal for the company's future in AI-enabled solutions [6]

Summary of J.P. Morgan Information Services Conference Call Industry Overview - The Information Services sector underperformed the S&P 500 in 2025, with J.P. Morgan's Info Services Index down -7% compared to a +13% increase for the S&P 500 [2][9] - The sector is currently trading at a median P/E of 25.9x based on 2026E EPS estimates, which is close to a five-year low valuation premium of 21% over the S&P 500 [2][10] Key Insights on AI and Market Dynamics - Uncertainty regarding AI disruption has been a significant factor in the sector's underperformance in 2025 [3][19] - There is a growing correlation between clients' AI adoption and their foundational data consumption, suggesting that as AI adoption increases, so will demand for data services [3][22] - The narrative around AI is expected to shift positively, leading to a re-evaluation of the sector's growth potential and valuation multiples, which could return to historical premiums of 40-60% over the broader market [3][22] Revenue Growth Expectations - The sector is projected to achieve a median organic constant currency revenue growth of +8% year-over-year in 2026, surpassing the historical CAGR of ~6% [4][27] - Credit rating agencies are expected to benefit from macroeconomic and M&A tailwinds, with Moody's and S&P Global positioned for strong growth [4][40] Company-Specific Highlights - **TransUnion (TRU)**: - Trading at 20.4x 2026E EPS, with expected organic revenue growth of +8% in 2025 and +7% in 2026 [7] - The rollout of the OneTru platform is anticipated to drive innovation and revenue growth [7] - Free cash flow is expected to increase from $600 million in 2025E to $834 million in 2026E, aiding in acquisitions and buybacks [7] - **S&P Global (SPGI)**: - Expected to deliver high-single-digit organic revenue growth in 2026, with margin expansion and aggressive share buybacks [8] - The planned spin-off of the Mobility segment will impact revenue estimates, but the core divisions are well-positioned for growth [8] Buyback Activity - Info Services firms are expected to accelerate share buybacks in 2026, with S&P Global, MSCI, Moody's, and FICO being the most active [33] - The sector's buyback activity is at its highest since early 2022, which should support EPS growth in 2026 [33] M&A Activity - 2025 saw limited M&A activity, but notable transactions include TransUnion's acquisition of Trans Union de Mexico and S&P Global's acquisition of With Intelligence [36] - The success of these acquisitions will be crucial for future performance, particularly for S&P Global in the private markets [36] Risks and Challenges - The emergence of AI-native startups poses a competitive threat, potentially compressing product development cycles and increasing execution risks [64][67] - The market for credit reports and scores is expected to evolve dynamically, with potential price increases leading to industry discussions about shifting to a "bi-merge" report [59][63] Conclusion - The Information Services sector is entering 2026 with favorable growth prospects and attractive valuations, despite the challenges posed by AI disruption and competitive pressures. The anticipated recovery in mortgage activity and continued demand for data services are expected to drive revenue growth across key players in the sector.