Key findings from TransUnion report: Nearly one-in-five Canadians improved their credit score over the past yearCanadian consumer credit delinquencies remained stable as consumers and lenders have adjusted to the evolving economic landscapeCanada’s credit market poised for growth as economic conditions improve, and innovation creates opportunities for expanded credit access TORONTO, Feb. 25, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- In the fourth quarter of 2025, Canadian household debt reached $2.6 trillion across all cred ...

In this articleEFXTRUFICOMorsa Images | Digitalvision | Getty ImagesThere's a line item in homebuyers' closing costs that's causing a clash in the mortgage industry: the fee for lenders to check borrowers' credit.While the charges — typically in the tens or hundreds of dollars — represent a tiny slice of the amount that buyers pay when a home purchase is finalized, the cost has risen sharply in recent years. Costs in 2026 could rise an average 40% to 50%, according to a Dec. 12 letter from the Mortgage Bank ...

Core Insights - There has been a significant increase in borrowing due to high inflation, with new personal loans rising by 24% in Q3 2025 compared to the previous year, particularly among borrowers with low credit scores [1] - Credit card accounts also saw an increase of 11.7%, with growth observed in both subprime and superprime segments [1][2] - Despite signs of cooling inflation, prices remain approximately 26% higher than pre-pandemic levels, affecting consumer sentiment negatively [3] Borrowing Trends - The Federal Reserve Bank of New York reported that 12.7% of credit card balances were 90 days or more overdue in Q4 2025, the highest level since 2011 [4] - Credit card balances increased by 4.2% at the end of last year, maintaining this growth rate for four consecutive quarters [4] - Personal loan balances reached a record high of $276 billion, remaining stable at about $8,400 per account compared to 2024 levels [5] Future Outlook - Credit card origination volumes are expected to moderate in 2026, indicating a potential stabilization in borrowing activity [5] - The overall sentiment suggests that the borrowing environment is settling down, despite the previous spikes in credit demand [5]

Core Insights - TransUnion (TRU) reported strong fourth-quarter 2025 results, with earnings and revenues exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate [1] - The adjusted EPS of $1.07 surpassed the consensus by 3.9% and grew 10.3% year over year, while total revenues reached $1.2 billion, beating estimates by 3% and increasing 13% from the previous year [1] Revenue Performance - The U.S. Markets segment generated revenues of $918.9 million, a 16% increase year over year, although it fell short of the consensus estimate of $921 million [3] - Financial services within this segment saw revenues of $423.1 million, also up 16% year over year [3] - The international segment reported revenues of $255.9 million, a 4% increase year over year, but below the consensus estimate of $274.2 million [4] - Canada and Latin America contributed $43.5 million and $34.8 million in revenues, growing 13% and 3% year over year, respectively [4] - The U.K. revenues increased by 22% year over year to $72.2 million [4] - Africa and India recorded revenues of $19.6 million and $60.4 million, with Africa growing 7% year over year, while India saw a 9% decline [5] Operating Performance - Adjusted EBITDA was $417 million, reflecting a 10% year-over-year growth, with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 35.6%, down 90 basis points from the previous year [6] - Adjusted EBITDA for the U.S. market was $348.5 million, a 12% increase year over year, while the international market's adjusted EBITDA was $255.9 million, up 4% [7] Balance Sheet & Cash Flow - At the end of the quarter, TransUnion had $853.6 million in cash and cash equivalents, up from $749.9 million at the end of the previous quarter [8] - Long-term debt decreased to $4.9 billion from $5 billion in the preceding quarter [8] - Cash generated from operating activities was $319.5 million, with capital expenditure at $96.7 million [8] Guidance - For Q1 2026, TransUnion expects revenues between $1.195 billion and $1.205 billion, aligning with the current consensus estimate [10] - The company anticipates adjusted EPS between $1.08 and $1.10, which is lower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.14 [10] - For the full year 2026, revenues are projected to be between $4.946 billion and $4.981 billion, slightly below the consensus estimate of $4.97 billion [11] - Adjusted EPS guidance for 2026 is set at $4.63 to $4.71, also lower than the consensus estimate of $4.85 [11]

Core Insights - TransUnion's 2026 credit originations forecast indicates continued growth in mortgage and unsecured personal loans, while other credit products show mixed performance [1][2] - The report highlights a normalization in the credit landscape, with slower growth rates expected compared to 2025 [2][4] Mortgage Insights - Mortgage originations are projected to continue their rebound, with both purchase and refinance activities contributing to growth [2][24] - In Q3 2025, mortgage originations rose 6.5% year-over-year to 1.34 million, driven by increased purchase demand and stronger refinance activity [24] - Home-equity originations have shown consistent growth, increasing 14.3% year-over-year in Q3 2025 [24][22] Unsecured Personal Loans Insights - Unsecured personal loans are expected to see significant growth, with an annual increase of 11.2% projected for 2026 [7] - In Q3 2025, originations reached a record 7.2 million, with subprime borrowers driving a 32.5% year-over-year increase [15] - Total unsecured personal loan balances climbed to a record $276 billion in Q4 2025, with 26.4 million consumers carrying a balance [15][18] Credit Card Insights - Credit card originations are expected to see a modest increase in 2026, following near-record growth in 2025 [3][9] - The total number of credit cards reached 581 million in Q4 2025, with total credit card balances at $1.15 trillion [10] - The borrower-level delinquency rate for credit cards was 2.58% in Q4 2025, reflecting a slight increase from previous years [10][14] Auto Loan Insights - Auto loan originations rose 6.2% year-over-year to 6.7 million in Q3 2025, with growth seen across all risk tiers [32] - Average monthly payments for new vehicles increased to $782, while used vehicle payments rose to $538 [30][32] - The account-level delinquency rate for auto loans reached 1.50% in Q4 2025, indicating a slight increase year-over-year [30][32] General Market Trends - The overall lending activity is expected to remain measured as lenders adopt a disciplined approach to growth, focusing on risk management [4][6] - Consumer demand for credit remains strong across various risk tiers, with potential for further strengthening if interest rates decline [4][6]

Core Viewpoint - TransUnion reported strong fourth-quarter earnings, exceeding analyst expectations in both earnings per share and sales figures [1][2]. Financial Performance - The company posted quarterly earnings of $1.07 per share, surpassing the analyst consensus estimate of $1.02 per share [1]. - Quarterly sales reached $1.171 billion, exceeding the analyst consensus estimate of $1.134 billion [1]. - For FY2026, TransUnion projects adjusted EPS between $4.63 and $4.71, compared to market estimates of $4.82 [1]. - The company anticipates sales of $4.946 billion to $4.981 billion, slightly above estimates of $4.927 billion [1]. Revenue Growth - TransUnion achieved a revenue growth of 13%, driven by strong performance in U.S. Markets [2]. - Financial Services segment grew by 19%, while Emerging Verticals accelerated to a 16% growth [2]. - The growth was broad-based, with credit, marketing, and fraud solutions each experiencing healthy double-digit growth [2]. Stock Performance - Following the earnings announcement, TransUnion shares increased by 4.6%, trading at $74.09 [2]. Analyst Ratings and Price Targets - Needham analyst Kyle Peterson maintained a Buy rating but lowered the price target from $115 to $95 [4]. - Wells Fargo analyst Jason Haas maintained an Overweight rating and reduced the price target from $100 to $90 [4]. - Stifel analyst Shlomo Rosenbaum also maintained a Buy rating, lowering the price target from $103 to $88 [4].

Group 1: St Barbara and Lingbao Gold Joint Venture - St Barbara Ltd (ASX: SBM) has confirmed a joint venture with Lingbao Gold Group Co., Ltd. for a cash investment of AUD 370 million to acquire a 50%+1 share in St Barbara Mining Pty Ltd, aimed at the Simberi gold mine expansion project [2][3] - The transaction is expected to close by the end of March 2026, coinciding with the final investment decision (FID) for the Simberi project [2][4] - Following the deal, Lingbao Gold will hold an 80% interest in the Simberi project, while Kumul Mineral Holdings will acquire a 20% interest for AUD 100 million, creating a non-corporate joint venture with an 80:20 ownership structure [3][4] Group 2: Project Details and Financial Implications - The Simberi expansion project has existing reserves of approximately 2.5 million ounces (Moz) and resources of about 5.8 Moz, with a competitive cost structure and long-term growth potential [4] - The project is expected to commence production as early as this fiscal year, with annual output projected to gradually increase to 200,000 ounces over five years [4] - The implied overall value of the Simberi project is estimated at around AUD 800 million, surpassing St Barbara's market capitalization of approximately AUD 600 million at the time [3][4] Group 3: Company Background and Market Context - Lingbao Gold is one of China's major gold producers, listed in Hong Kong since 2006, with a comprehensive business model covering exploration, mining, and trading [5] - Kumul Mineral Holdings, as a state-owned enterprise in Papua New Guinea (PNG), provides governmental support for the transaction, reflecting the PNG government's endorsement of the Simberi project [5] - St Barbara's market capitalization also includes other development projects in Canada, cash, gold inventory, and other investment assets, with the Simberi mining lease extended until 2038 [5]

Core Insights - TransUnion reported strong financial performance in Q4, exceeding revenue, adjusted EBITDA, and adjusted diluted EPS expectations, marking a successful conclusion to its multi-year transformation program [3][5][13] Financial Performance - The company recorded $25 million in one-time transformation-related charges in Q4, with $6 million for operating model optimization and $19 million for technology transformation, marking the final quarter of such charges [1] - Adjusted EBITDA rose by 10%, achieving a margin of 35.6%, while adjusted diluted EPS increased to $1.07, up 10% year-over-year, exceeding the high end of the company's guidance by $0.05 [2] - Consolidated revenue increased by 13% on a reported basis and 12% organically in constant currency, with contributions from the Monevo acquisition and strong growth in the mortgage sector [3][5] Growth Drivers - U.S. Markets revenue grew 16% organically in constant currency, with Financial Services revenue rising by 19%, driven by double-digit growth in mortgage, consumer lending, and auto sectors [6][7] - Emerging Verticals accelerated to 16% growth in Q4, with significant contributions from insurance, tech, retail, and e-commerce sectors [7] - The lending environment remains positive, supported by sufficient lender capital and strong credit performance [7] Capital Deployment and Shareholder Returns - The company repurchased approximately $300 million of stock in 2025 and increased its dividend by 9%, with plans for continued buybacks while aiming to reduce leverage [4][14] - Management emphasized shareholder returns and views the current valuation as attractive, planning to remain active in repurchases during 2026 [14] M&A Activity - TransUnion completed the Monevo acquisition in 2025 and anticipates closing the purchase of majority ownership of TransUnion de México in the first half of 2026, with an expected purchase price of approximately $660 million [15] AI Strategy - Executives highlighted that AI is seen as an enabler rather than a threat, with plans to apply AI internally to enhance productivity through an analytics platform [16] 2026 Guidance - Management provided guidance for 2026, expecting 8% to 9% organic constant-currency revenue growth, 7% to 8% adjusted EBITDA growth, and 8% to 10% adjusted diluted EPS growth, while noting the impact of higher FICO mortgage royalties on reported metrics [17][19]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Total revenues increased by 12% organically, with the US market growing by 16%, marking one of the strongest performances since 2021 [9][30] - Adjusted diluted EPS grew by 10% in the quarter, or 14% when excluding the impact from the tax rate reset [9] - Adjusted EBITDA increased by 10%, with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 35.6% [30] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - In the U.S., financial services revenue grew by 19%, or 11% excluding mortgage, with double-digit growth in mortgage, consumer lending, and auto [10][31] - Emerging verticals accelerated from 7% growth in Q3 to 16% in Q4, with strong performance across insurance, media, tenant and employment screening, tech, retail, and e-commerce [10][32] - Credit solutions grew by 13%, driven by U.S. non-mortgage volumes, while marketing solutions saw a growth acceleration from flat in 2024 to 7% in 2025 [15][16] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Internationally, revenue grew by 2% on an organic constant currency basis, with Canada and the U.K. both achieving double-digit growth [11][34] - India experienced a revenue decline of 4% in Q4, attributed to a reset year for unsecured lending and credit card originations [11][37] - The U.K. business grew by 10%, and Canada grew by 13%, reflecting strong performance from banking and fintech customers [34] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to build on its momentum and drive innovation-led growth, with a focus on launching new AI-powered solutions [20][21] - The strategic focus for 2026 includes enhancing product predictiveness and capturing more value within customer workflows [20] - The company completed its transformation investment program, which is expected to yield full target savings in 2026 [19][41] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in achieving high single-digit revenue growth and double-digit adjusted EPS growth for 2026, assuming stable business conditions [19][55] - The company anticipates a gradual recovery in international markets and modest U.S. lending growth [19][42] - Management highlighted the importance of AI in driving growth and improving operational efficiency, positioning the company advantageously in the market [22][28] Other Important Information - The company repurchased approximately $150 million in shares during the quarter, totaling $300 million for 2025, and raised its quarterly dividend by 9% to $0.125 per share [9][40] - The acquisition of Monevo and majority ownership of TransUnion de México were completed, expanding the company's global reach [14][40] Q&A Session Questions and Answers Question: U.S. emerging vertical guidance - Management acknowledged strong growth in emerging verticals and emphasized a prudent conservative approach to guidance, setting the stage for potential outperformance [60][62] Question: Differentiation in marketing and fraud - Management highlighted the unique identity data assets and resolution capabilities that set the company apart from competitors, emphasizing the proprietary nature of their data [71][73]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Total revenues increased by 12% organically, with the U.S. market growing by 16%, marking one of the strongest performances since 2021 [9][30] - Adjusted diluted EPS grew by 10% in the quarter, or 14% when excluding the impact from the tax rate reset [9] - Adjusted EBITDA increased by 10%, with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 35.6% [30] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - U.S. Financial Services revenue grew by 19%, or 11% excluding mortgage, with double-digit growth in Consumer Lending and Auto [10][31] - Emerging Verticals accelerated growth from 7% in Q3 to 16% in Q4, with double-digit growth across Insurance, Media, Tenant and Employment Screening, Tech, Retail, and E-commerce [10] - Credit Solutions grew by 13%, driven by U.S. non-mortgage volumes, while Marketing Solutions saw a growth acceleration from flat in 2024 to 7% in 2025 [15][16] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - International revenue grew by 2% on an organic constant currency basis, with Canada and the U.K. both achieving double-digit growth [11][34] - India experienced a revenue decline of 4% in Q4, attributed to a reset year for unsecured lending and credit card originations [11][37] - Latin America declined by 3% due to softer economic conditions, while Asia Pacific saw an 11% decline [36] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to build on its momentum and drive innovation-led growth, with a focus on launching new AI-powered solutions [20][21] - The strategic focus for 2026 includes enhancing product predictiveness and capturing more value within customer workflows [20] - The company plans to expand its offerings in India, leveraging favorable economic and demographic trends [39][40] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in achieving high single-digit revenue growth and double-digit adjusted EPS growth for 2026, assuming stable business conditions [19][54] - The company anticipates a gradual recovery in international markets and modest U.S. lending growth [19][54] - Management highlighted the importance of AI in driving growth and improving internal processes, positioning the company advantageously in the market [22][28] Other Important Information - The company repurchased approximately $150 million in shares during Q4, totaling $300 million for 2025, and raised its quarterly dividend by 9% to $0.125 per share [9][41] - The acquisition of Monevo and majority ownership of TransUnion de México were highlighted as strategic moves to enhance growth [14][41] - The transformation investment program was completed on schedule and budget, expected to deliver significant cost savings and operational efficiencies [42][43] Q&A Session Summary Question: U.S. emerging vertical guidance - Management acknowledged strong growth in emerging verticals and emphasized a conservative approach to guidance, aiming for beats and raises throughout the year [60][62] Question: Differentiation in Marketing and Fraud - Management highlighted the proprietary identity data assets and resolution capabilities as key differentiators, emphasizing the challenges competitors face in accessing similar data [70][72]