Visa Inc. (NYSE:V) and Mastercard Incorporated (NYSE:MA) are expected to report earnings results on January 29.JP Morgan analyst Tien-tsin Huang says that the spending data indicate only a slight slowdown in the fourth quarter, and given the tough year-over-year comparison, this suggests that the domestic consumer remains healthy.Last week, President Donald Trump posted on social media encouraging support for the Credit Card Competition Act (CCCA). The analyst writes that headlines around CCCA have fueled c ...

Core Insights - Mercuryo has partnered with Visa to enable near real-time conversion of digital assets into fiat currency [1][3] - The collaboration allows users to send proceeds directly to Visa debit and credit cards through Visa Direct, enhancing the speed and efficiency of crypto-to-fiat transactions [3][4] Group 1: Partnership Details - The partnership aims to reduce settlement times and costs compared to traditional conversion methods, particularly for cross-border transactions [4] - Eligible Mercuryo users can off-ramp crypto holdings and receive fiat funds on their cards within minutes [3][6] - The integration connects Visa Direct with Mercuryo's network of non-custodial wallets, exchanges, and payment providers, making crypto-to-fiat conversions more accessible [5] Group 2: User Experience and Market Reach - Funds converted to fiat can be spent at over 150 million merchant locations worldwide that accept Visa [6] - The service improves convenience and reliability for everyday payments by bridging the gap between crypto platforms and traditional financial systems [7] - The partnership enhances Mercuryo's ability to deliver a fast, low-cost user experience, reducing friction in moving funds across borders [6][9] Group 3: Industry Context - This deal is part of Visa's broader strategy to deepen its involvement in digital assets, including the launch of a Stablecoins Advisory Practice [8]

（原标题：你的AI助手正在下单付款！Visa发布2026年全球支付预测） 全球支付行业正迈入以AI、身份安全与跨境网络协同为核心的重构新阶段。随着人工智能在零售链路 中的应用量在一年内激增4700%，支付正从技术升级走向底层逻辑改变。近年来，数字钱包在亚太线上 支付中的占比不断提升，移动端成为跨境交易主入口。Visa于1月23日发布《2026 年全球支付预测》， 呈现六大趋势及其对中国市场的意义。 Visa中国区总裁尹小龙表示："当AI、身份安全与全球网络能力同时发生跃迁时，支付行业迎来前所未 有的重构时刻。我们希望通过技术创新，为中国消费者和企业带来更智能、更安全、更具确定性的跨境 支付体验。" 趋势一：AI驱动智能商务——从辅助进入执行时代 生成式AI正从辅助走向执行，能够代表用户完成搜索、比价、决策与支付。Visa已在北美与亚太完成数 百笔AI发起的真实交易，并将在2026年扩大规模。Trusted Agent Protocol进一步确保智能体交易的身份 与意图可信，为跨境旅行、跨境电商与留学账单等复杂场景提供高效支持。 趋势二：身份安全进入AI时代——可信发起者成为核心标准 趋势三：支付标记化普及—— ...

Group 1 - Visa Inc. has enabled Apple Pay support for Chinese Visa cardholders, allowing eligible customers to add their Visa cards to Apple Pay for various payment methods [1][2] - The banks participating in this initiative include major institutions such as Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, Bank of China, and Agricultural Bank of China, with plans to expand the network further [2] - Visa is increasing investments in data and payment security, launching tokenization services, and focusing on cross-border payment scenarios to enhance its digital payment strategy in China [3][4] Group 2 - Visa operates VisaNet, a transaction-processing network that facilitates the authorization, clearing, and settlement of payment transactions globally [4]

Core Viewpoint - Visa is anticipated to report a year-over-year increase in earnings and revenues for the quarter ended December 2025, with the actual results being a significant factor influencing its near-term stock price [1][2]. Earnings Expectations - The upcoming earnings report is expected to be released on January 29, with a consensus estimate of $3.14 per share, reflecting a +14.2% change year-over-year. Revenues are projected to be $10.68 billion, up 12.3% from the previous year [3][2]. Estimate Revisions - The consensus EPS estimate has been revised 0.01% higher in the last 30 days, indicating a slight positive reassessment by analysts [4]. Earnings Surprise Prediction - The Zacks Earnings ESP model indicates that the Most Accurate Estimate for Visa is lower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate, resulting in an Earnings ESP of -0.23%. This suggests a bearish outlook from analysts regarding Visa's earnings prospects [12]. Historical Performance - In the last reported quarter, Visa had an earnings surprise of +0.34%, with actual earnings of $2.98 per share compared to the expected $2.97. Over the last four quarters, Visa has consistently beaten consensus EPS estimates [13][14]. Investment Considerations - Despite the potential for an earnings beat, other factors may influence stock movement, and the current combination of a negative Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank of 3 complicates predictions for Visa's performance [15][17].

Core Perspective - Visa projects a steady yet transformative year for the global economy, with a GDP growth forecast of 2.7% for 2026, slightly down from 2.9% in 2025, highlighting underlying forces reshaping the economic landscape [1][2] Economic Growth Drivers - The economy is undergoing a fundamental rebuild driven by technological advancements, new international trade dynamics, and innovative digital solutions, with business investments expected to propel the next wave of growth [2][6] - Generative AI adoption is accelerating, particularly among small businesses, leading to increased transaction volumes for firms that integrate this technology [3][4] Trade Patterns and Supply Chains - Global supply chains are fragmenting due to geopolitical tensions and tariffs, with intra-regional trade now accounting for about two-thirds of overall trade expansion, fostering growth in sectors like mining and technology [5][6] - Companies are diversifying suppliers and shortening logistics routes, which is expected to boost business travel and cross-border commercial payments [5] Consumer Spending and Inflation - Consumer spending is forecasted to grow at 2.4%, down from 2.7% last year, amid easing inflation from 3.4% to 3.1%, but this slowdown is offset by business investments driven by AI infrastructure development [6][8] Demographic and Structural Challenges - Demographic pressures, such as aging populations, present challenges, but the economy shows resilience following policy shifts in 2025 [7] - Companies that leverage real-time data and flexible strategies are expected to thrive in this evolving environment [7]

Core Insights - The payments industry is increasingly transitioning to digital, cross-border, and real-time transactions, with Visa Inc. and Mastercard Incorporated leading in global financial transaction services [1] - Both companies are expanding their value-added services, but their growth trajectories differ due to variations in scale and regional revenue mix [2] Visa - Visa has a market cap of $593.6 billion, benefiting from extensive penetration in consumer, commercial, and cross-border transactions, which supports resilient revenue growth [3] - In the fiscal fourth quarter, Visa's payment volume grew by 9% year over year, with processed transactions increasing to 67.7 billion, a 10% rise, and cross-border volume growing by 12% [4] - Value-added services now contribute nearly 30% of Visa's revenues, growing in the mid-20s, with investments in AI-driven fraud prevention and blockchain technologies [5] - Visa maintains a strong cash position of $17.2 billion, allowing for significant share buybacks and dividends, returning $6.1 billion to shareholders in the fiscal fourth quarter [6] - Adjusted operating expenses rose by 13.1% year over year in the fourth quarter, and regulatory risks are present in the U.S. and Europe [7] Mastercard - Mastercard has a market cap of $477.5 billion and operates a secure global payments network, with net revenues increasing by 17% year over year in the third quarter of 2025 [10][11] - The company reported a 25% year-over-year growth in value-added services, driven by strategic acquisitions and strong performance in security and digital authentication [11] - Mastercard is investing in tokenization, cybersecurity, and AI-powered solutions, while balancing innovation with shareholder returns [12][13] - Adjusted operating expenses increased by 15% year over year in the third quarter, with an expected rise of 15.8% in 2025 [14] - The consensus estimate for Mastercard's 2025 EPS indicates a 12.5% year-over-year growth, with no recent earnings estimate revisions [16] Valuation and Performance - Visa's forward P/E ratio is 24.44X, compared to Mastercard's 27.68X, making Visa's valuation more attractive [17] - Over the past three months, Visa has experienced less value loss than Mastercard and the broader industry [18] - Both companies are ranked 3 (Hold) by Zacks, but Visa's larger scale, higher margins, and more attractive valuation suggest greater growth potential [21]

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in Visa's stock presents a buying opportunity for investors, as the drop was driven by market fears rather than the company's fundamentals [3]. Business Model - Visa operates as a payment network rather than a lender, processing 329 billion transactions across 220 countries in the year ending September 30 [4]. - The company collects a fee on each transaction, making it resilient against regulatory changes regarding credit card interest rates [5]. Stock Performance - Visa's stock has underperformed the S&P 500 over the past year, with a gain of just over 7% compared to the market's 20% [5]. - The company's dividend yield remains around 0.5%, with a recent dividend hike of 13.6% [6]. Consumer Spending Trends - Despite economic concerns, American consumer spending remains strong, with retail sales increasing by 0.6% in November [8]. - The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment indicator rose for the second consecutive month in January, indicating potential for increased transactions for Visa [8]. Growth Opportunities - Visa is positioning itself to benefit from the growth of stablecoins, which are pegged to the US dollar and facilitate international transactions [9]. - The company launched stablecoin settlement in the US, achieving a monthly settlement volume of $3.5 billion annualized as of November 30 [10]. Financial Health - Visa's management has engaged in significant share buybacks, repurchasing 9% of the company's float over the last five years, which supports earnings per share and dividend growth [12]. - The company maintains a strong balance sheet with $23.2 billion in cash and investments, nearly offsetting its $25.9 billion debt, providing a cushion for continued dividend payments [13].

Group 1 - Costco operates as a global retailer with a membership model, generating a steady income stream from membership fees, allowing for lower product margins and fostering customer loyalty through competitive pricing [2] - Visa functions as a payment processor, facilitating secure transactions between buyers and sellers, and has processed 257.5 billion transactions in fiscal 2025, benefiting from the ongoing shift from cash to card payments [3] Group 2 - Both Costco and Visa are expected to continue their growth trajectories, making them suitable candidates for growth-oriented investment portfolios, but valuation concerns must be addressed [4] - Costco's current price-to-sales (P/S) ratio is 1.5, above its five-year average of 1.2, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 51 compared to a long-term average of 44, indicating a premium valuation [5] - Visa's P/S ratio stands at 18, slightly below its five-year average of 20, with a P/E ratio of 32 compared to a long-term average of 33, suggesting a more reasonable valuation relative to Costco [6]

Core Insights - Dividend growth is essential for dividend-focused investors, as inflation diminishes the dollar's value over time, making it crucial for dividend payments to increase to maintain purchasing power [1] Visa - Visa is a global payment processor that facilitates transactions between buyers and sellers, processing 257.5 billion transactions in fiscal 2025, representing a 10% year-over-year increase [2] - The shift from cash to card-based payments and the growth of e-commerce are expected to sustain Visa's business growth for years [3] - Visa's dividend has surged by 375% over the past decade, appealing to investors who prioritize future income over immediate returns [3] - The current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 32 is slightly below its five-year average of 33, indicating a reasonable valuation for long-term investors [4] - A $2,000 investment in Visa would allow the purchase of approximately six shares [4] Realty Income - Realty Income represents a slower dividend growth option, with a 40% increase in dividends over the past decade and a compound annual growth rate of 4.2% over three decades, slightly outpacing inflation [6] - Realty Income offers a relatively high dividend yield of 5.3%, making it attractive for investors seeking income from their portfolios [7] - A $2,000 investment in Realty Income would enable the purchase of about 32 shares [7] Investment Preferences - Some investors favor rapidly growing dividend stocks like Visa, while others prefer the steady growth of dividends offered by Realty Income, highlighting differing investment strategies [8]