The consensus EPS estimate for the quarter has been revised 0.7% lower over the last 30 days to the current level. This reflects how the analysts covering the stock have collectively reevaluated their initial estimates during this timeframe. Analysts on Wall Street project that Valley National (VLY) will announce quarterly earnings of $0.22 per share in its forthcoming report, representing an increase of 69.2% year over year. Revenues are projected to reach $493.23 million, increasing 8.6% from the same qua ...

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley's strategy team highlights 15 stocks with short-term catalytic potential, indicating that S&P 500 index earnings growth in Q2 may exceed expectations [1] Earnings Expectations - The market anticipates a 5% year-over-year increase in S&P 500 Q2 earnings per share and over 4% revenue growth, but actual growth may be stronger [1] - The seven major tech companies are expected to see a 14% increase in net profit, while the remaining 493 constituents may experience a 3% decline [1] - Despite analysts lowering earnings expectations from April to May, the earnings revision has rebounded from -25% to approximately 1%, suggesting Q2 earnings will likely exceed expectations, aligning with the historical average of 4%-5% [1] Recommended Stocks - **argenx SE (ARGX.US)**: undervalued R&D pipeline, target price $700 [2] - **Atlassian (TEAM.US)**: continuous revenue growth potential over 20% and expected margin expansion, target price $320 [3] - **Chewy (CHWY.US)**: benefits from marketing and product optimization, expected revenue to maintain or exceed Q1 levels, target price $50 [4] - **CVS Health (CVS.US)**: advantages from competitor store closures and growth in pharmacy benefit management, target price $80 [4] - **DraftKings (DKNG.US)**: potential earnings inflection point in Q2, with actual licensing rates offsetting tax and regulatory pressures, target price $52 [4] - **Eaton Corporation (ETN.US)**: benefits from improved profit margins in U.S. electrical business, target price $375 [5] - **Eli Lilly (LLY.US)**: core products Mounjaro and Zepbound expected to contribute $8.2 billion in revenue, exceeding expectations may lead to 2025 guidance upgrades, target price $1,135 [5] - **F5 (FFIV.US)**: positive outlook due to demand growth in cloud and load balancing products, target price $305 [6] - **NVIDIA (NVDA.US)**: strong end-user demand and accelerated shipments of rack-level products supporting supply-side growth, target price $170 [7] - **Omada Health (OMDA.US)**: operational leverage through technology empowerment and multi-disease sales, target price $25 [8] - **Southwest Airlines (LUV.US)**: potential stock rebound if internal guidance is met and baggage fee impacts are confirmed as limited, target price $38 [9] - **Valley National Bank (VLY.US)**: expected net interest income growth of 3% quarter-over-quarter, target price $11 [10] - **Western Digital (WDC.US)**: undervalued gross margin expansion prospects, target price $85 [11] Cautious Outlook - **National Storage Affiliates Trust (NSA.US)**: cautious due to expected funds from operations (FFO) per share being below market and company guidance, target price $30 [12] - **Teradyne (TER.US)**: revenue and earnings per share forecasts for FY2026 are 7% and 14% below Wall Street expectations, target price $74 [13] Summary - Overall, Morgan Stanley's recommendations combine company fundamentals, industry trends, and market sentiment, providing diversified options for investors [14]

Core Viewpoint - Wall Street anticipates a year-over-year increase in earnings for Valley National (VLY) due to higher revenues, with actual results being crucial for stock price movement [1][2]. Earnings Expectations - The earnings report is expected on July 24, with a consensus EPS estimate of $0.22, reflecting a +69.2% year-over-year change, and revenues projected at $493.23 million, up 8.6% from the previous year [3]. Estimate Revisions - The consensus EPS estimate has been revised down by 0.65% over the last 30 days, indicating a reassessment by analysts [4]. Earnings Surprise Prediction - The Zacks Earnings ESP model suggests that the Most Accurate Estimate for Valley National is lower than the consensus estimate, resulting in an Earnings ESP of -2.33%, indicating bearish sentiment among analysts [12]. Historical Performance - Valley National has not beaten consensus EPS estimates in the last four quarters, with the most recent quarter showing a -5.26% surprise [13][14]. Investment Considerations - Despite the negative Earnings ESP, other factors may influence stock movement, and investors should consider these alongside earnings expectations [15][17].

Company Overview - Valley National Bancorp (NASDAQ: VLY) is a regional bank with over 230 branches primarily located in densely populated states across the United States [1] - The bank offers common shares and has three different issues of preferred shares, with two of the three preferred shares being highlighted [1] Investment Focus - The company is currently focused on income investing through common shares, preferred shares, or bonds [1] - The analysis may also include broader economic discussions or special situations involving researched companies [1] Background Information - The author has a Bachelor's degree in history/political science and a Master's in Business Administration with a specialization in Finance and Economics [1] - The author has been investing since 2000 and is the CEO of an independent living retirement community in Illinois [1]

Group 1 - The article discusses Valley National Bancorp's (NASDAQ: VLY) management plan to reduce the riskiness of its balance sheet, which is currently heavily weighted toward commercial real estate (CRE) loans [1] - There is a steady decline in the average cost of funds for the bank, which may positively impact its profitability [1] Group 2 - The author emphasizes the importance of fundamental analysis over technical analysis in evaluating company performance [1]

NEW YORK, June 09, 2025 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Valley National Bancorp (NASDAQ:VLY), the holding company for Valley National Bank, announced that it will release its second quarter 2025 earnings before the market opens on Thursday, July 24, 2025. Valley’s CEO, Ira Robbins will host a conference call on Thursday, July 24, 2025 at 11:00 AM (ET) to discuss Valley’s second quarter 2025 earnings. Interested parties should pre-register using this link: https://register-conf.media-server.com/register/BIda64137d4a6b4c ...

Core Viewpoint - Rider Justice is actively engaging with the motorcycle community by sponsoring the 2025 Thunder Valley National, showcasing their commitment to riders in Colorado [1][9]. Event Details - The event will take place on Saturday, June 7, 2025, at Thunder Valley Motocross Park, with gates opening at 8:00 a.m. and the first race starting at noon [7]. - The venue offers nearly 360° track visibility and open-air festival seating, allowing attendees to enjoy the races fully [6]. Sponsorship Activities - Rider Justice will feature a motorcycle-powered smoothie machine at their tent, providing complimentary smoothies to attendees [4][8]. - The event will include a Sponsor Village where attendees can meet industry leaders and explore interactive exhibits [6]. Company Background - Rider Justice has been advocating for the Colorado motorcycle community for over 25 years, focusing on safety and legal representation for injured motorcyclists [9].

Core Viewpoint - Valley National Bancorp announced the full redemption of its 5.25% Fixed-to-Floating Rate Subordinated Notes due 2030, totaling $115 million, effective June 15, 2025, enhancing its financial flexibility and capital efficiency [1][3]. Group 1: Redemption Details - The total principal amount of the Notes being redeemed is $115,000,000 [1]. - The redemption price will be 100% of the principal amount plus accrued and unpaid interest up to the Redemption Date [1]. - Holders of the Notes will receive notice and further instructions regarding the redemption process [2]. Group 2: Company Background - Valley National Bank, the principal subsidiary of Valley National Bancorp, has approximately $62 billion in assets [3]. - The bank operates numerous branch locations and commercial banking offices across several states, including New Jersey, New York, Florida, Alabama, California, and Illinois [3]. - Valley National Bank is committed to supporting community growth and providing innovative services to meet customer needs [3].

[PART I FINANCIAL INFORMATION](index=3&type=section&id=PART%20I%20FINANCIAL%20INFORMATION) This section covers the unaudited financial statements, management's discussion, market risk, and controls for Q1 2025 [Financial Statements (Unaudited)](index=3&type=section&id=Item%201.%20Financial%20Statements%20%28Unaudited%29) This section provides Valley National Bancorp's unaudited consolidated financial statements and notes for the first quarter of 2025 [Consolidated Statements of Financial Condition](index=3&type=section&id=Consolidated%20Statements%20of%20Financial%20Condition) Total assets for Valley National Bancorp were $61.9 billion as of March 31, 2025, a slight decrease from year-end 2024 Consolidated Balance Sheet Highlights (in thousands) | Account | March 31, 2025 | December 31, 2024 | | :--- | :--- | :--- | | **Total Assets** | **$61,865,655** | **$62,491,691** | | Net Loans | $48,078,928 | $48,240,861 | | Total Investment Securities | $7,278,457 | $6,972,810 | | Goodwill | $1,868,936 | $1,868,936 | | **Total Liabilities** | **$54,365,758** | **$55,056,564** | | Total Deposits | $49,965,844 | $50,075,857 | | Long-term borrowings | $2,904,567 | $3,174,155 | | **Total Shareholders' Equity** | **$7,499,897** | **$7,435,127** | [Consolidated Statements of Income](index=4&type=section&id=Consolidated%20Statements%20of%20Income) Net income for Q1 2025 increased to $106.1 million from $96.3 million year-over-year, driven by higher net interest income Quarterly Income Statement Highlights (in thousands, except per share data) | Metric | Q1 2025 | Q1 2024 | | :--- | :--- | :--- | | Net Interest Income | $420,105 | $393,548 | | Provision for credit losses for loans | $62,675 | $45,274 | | Total non-interest income | $58,294 | $61,415 | | Total non-interest expense | $276,618 | $280,310 | | **Net Income** | **$106,058** | **$96,280** | | Net Income Available to Common Shareholders | $99,103 | $92,161 | | **Diluted EPS** | **$0.18** | **$0.18** | [Consolidated Statements of Cash Flows](index=7&type=section&id=Consolidated%20Statements%20of%20Cash%20Flows) Net cash outflow for Q1 2025 was $666.4 million, a significant shift from a prior-year inflow, driven by financing activities Cash Flow Summary for the Three Months Ended March 31 (in thousands) | Activity | 2025 | 2024 | | :--- | :--- | :--- | | Net cash (used in) provided by operating activities | $(17,122) | $99,511 | | Net cash (used in) provided by investing activities | $(175,310) | $91,985 | | Net cash used in financing activities | $(473,996) | $(141,888) | | **Net change in cash and cash equivalents** | **$(666,428)** | **$49,608** | [Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements](index=9&type=section&id=Notes%20to%20Consolidated%20Financial%20Statements) The notes provide detailed explanations of accounting policies and financial data presented in the consolidated statements - The majority of assets and liabilities measured at fair value on a recurring basis, such as available-for-sale debt securities and derivatives, are valued using **Level 2 inputs** (observable but not quoted prices)[36](index=36&type=chunk)[37](index=37&type=chunk) - The loan portfolio is primarily composed of **Commercial Real Estate (59.8%)** and **Commercial & Industrial (20.9%)** loans as of March 31, 2025[77](index=77&type=chunk)[267](index=267&type=chunk) - The allowance for credit losses for loans increased to **$594.1 million (1.22% of total loans)** at March 31, 2025, from $573.3 million (1.17% of total loans) at year-end 2024[102](index=102&type=chunk)[298](index=298&type=chunk) - Goodwill remained unchanged at **$1.87 billion**, with the largest portion (**$1.44 billion**) allocated to the Commercial Banking reporting unit[107](index=107&type=chunk) [Management's Discussion and Analysis (MD&A)](index=46&type=section&id=Item%202.%20Management%27s%20Discussion%20and%20Analysis%20of%20Financial%20Condition%20and%20Results%20of%20Operations) Management discusses Q1 2025 financial condition and results, focusing on balance sheet strengthening, capital ratios, and credit quality [Executive Summary and Financial Condition](index=51&type=section&id=Executive%20Summary%20and%20Financial%20Condition) In Q1 2025, Valley strengthened its balance sheet by reducing CRE loan concentration and improving capital ratios - The company is proactively reducing its **CRE loan concentration**, which declined from **362% to 353%** of total risk-based capital during the quarter[166](index=166&type=chunk) - The allowance for credit losses (ACL) for loans is expected to migrate towards approximately **1.25% of total loans** by year-end 2025, up from 1.22% at quarter-end[166](index=166&type=chunk) - Accruing past due loans decreased significantly to **$51.7 million (0.11% of total loans)** from $99.2 million (0.20% of total loans) at the end of 2024[166](index=166&type=chunk) Q1 2025 vs Q1 2024 Performance Drivers | Driver | Impact on Net Income | Details | | :--- | :--- | :--- | | Net Interest Income | +$26.6M | Lower interest rates on deposits and income from security purchases | | Non-Interest Expense | +$3.7M | Decreases in tech and FDIC fees, offset by higher tax credit amortization | | Provision for Credit Losses | -$17.5M | Higher reserves for CRE and C&I loans | | Non-Interest Income | -$3.1M | Lower gains on asset sales and wealth management fees | [Net Interest Income and Margin](index=61&type=section&id=Net%20Interest%20Income%20and%20Margin) Net interest income increased to $421.4 million for Q1 2025, with net interest margin expanding to 2.96%, driven by lower deposit costs Net Interest Margin (Tax Equivalent) | Period | Net Interest Margin | | :--- | :--- | | Q1 2025 | 2.96% | | Q4 2024 | 2.92% | | Q1 2024 | 2.79% | - The cost of total average deposits decreased to **2.65%** in Q1 2025, down from 2.94% in Q4 2024, which was a key driver of NIM expansion[195](index=195&type=chunk) - Full-year 2025 net interest income growth is now expected to be at the **low end of the 9% to 12% range**, revised due to lower anticipated loan growth and spread compression[196](index=196&type=chunk) [Loan Portfolio and Credit Quality](index=77&type=section&id=Loan%20Portfolio%20and%20Credit%20Quality) Total loans decreased slightly to $48.7 billion in Q1 2025, reflecting portfolio de-risking and improved credit quality, with NPAs decreasing Loan Portfolio Composition (in billions) | Loan Category | March 31, 2025 | December 31, 2024 | | :--- | :--- | :--- | | Commercial and industrial | $10.2 | $9.9 | | Commercial real estate | $29.1 | $29.6 | | Residential mortgage | $5.6 | $5.6 | | Consumer | $3.8 | $3.6 | | **Total Loans** | **$48.7** | **$48.8** | - Non-performing assets (NPAs) decreased to **$356.2 million (0.73% of assets)** from $373.3 million (0.76% of assets) at year-end 2024[278](index=278&type=chunk)[280](index=280&type=chunk) - Net loan charge-offs were **$41.9 million (0.34% of average loans, annualized)** in Q1 2025, down from $98.3 million in Q4 2024 but up from $23.6 million in Q1 2024[295](index=295&type=chunk)[296](index=296&type=chunk) - The allowance for credit losses for loans as a percentage of total loans increased to **1.22%** at March 31, 2025, from 1.17% at December 31, 2024[298](index=298&type=chunk) [Capital Adequacy](index=85&type=section&id=Capital%20Adequacy) Shareholders' equity increased by $64.8 million in Q1 2025 to $7.5 billion, driven by net income, maintaining strong regulatory capital ratios Regulatory Capital Ratios (Valley National Bancorp) | Ratio | March 31, 2025 | December 31, 2024 | Minimum Requirement* | | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | | Common Equity Tier 1 | 10.80% | 10.82% | 7.00% | | Tier 1 Risk-based Capital | 11.53% | 11.55% | 8.50% | | Total Risk-based Capital | 13.91% | 13.87% | 10.50% | | Tier 1 Leverage | 9.41% | 9.16% | 4.00% | - Shareholders' equity increased by **$64.8 million** in Q1 2025, primarily due to net income of **$106.1 million** and other comprehensive income of **$27.1 million**, offset by dividends and share repurchases[299](index=299&type=chunk)[300](index=300&type=chunk) - The company declared a cash dividend of **$0.11 per common share** for Q1 2025, consistent with the prior year's quarter[306](index=306&type=chunk) [Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosures About Market Risk](index=81&type=section&id=Item%203.%20Quantitative%20and%20Qualitative%20Disclosures%20About%20Market%20Risk) The company's primary market risk is interest rate risk, with simulations indicating net interest income sensitivity to rate changes Net Interest Income Sensitivity Analysis (as of March 31, 2025) | Change in Interest Rates (bps) | Estimated % Change in NII | | :--- | :--- | | +300 | 7.23% | | +200 | 4.90% | | +100 | 2.46% | | -100 | (2.54)% | | -200 | (5.21)% | | -300 | (7.60)% | [Controls and Procedures](index=81&type=section&id=Item%204.%20Controls%20and%20Procedures) Management concluded disclosure controls and procedures were effective as of March 31, 2025, with no material changes in internal control over financial reporting - The CEO and CFO concluded that the company's disclosure controls and procedures were **effective** as of the end of the reporting period[310](index=310&type=chunk) - No changes in internal control over financial reporting occurred in Q1 2025 that have materially affected, or are reasonably likely to materially affect, these controls[311](index=311&type=chunk) [PART II OTHER INFORMATION](index=82&type=section&id=PART%20II%20OTHER%20INFORMATION) This section includes information on legal proceedings, risk factors, and issuer purchases of equity securities [Legal Proceedings](index=82&type=section&id=Item%201.%20Legal%20Proceedings) The company is involved in various legal actions, which management believes will not materially adversely affect its financial condition or results - Management does not expect current legal proceedings to have a **material adverse effect** on the company's financial condition or results[314](index=314&type=chunk) [Risk Factors](index=82&type=section&id=Item%201A.%20Risk%20Factors) There have been no material changes to the risk factors previously disclosed in the company's Annual Report on Form 10-K - No material changes to risk factors were reported for the quarter[315](index=315&type=chunk) [Issuer Purchases of Equity Securities](index=82&type=section&id=Item%202.%20Unregistered%20Sales%20of%20Equity%20Securities%2C%20Use%20of%20Proceeds%20and%20Issuer%20Purchases%20of%20Equity%20Securities) During Q1 2025, Valley repurchased 939,266 shares at an average price of $9.79, with 24.75 million shares remaining under the repurchase program Q1 2025 Share Repurchases | Month | Total Shares Purchased | Average Price Paid | Shares Purchased Under Plan | | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | | January 2025 | 1,527 | $8.93 | — | | February 2025 | 686,318 | $10.21 | — | | March 2025 | 251,421 | $8.65 | 250,000 | | **Total** | **939,266** | **$9.79** | **250,000** | - As of March 31, 2025, **24.75 million shares** may yet be purchased under the current stock repurchase program, which was announced in February 2024 and is effective until April 2026[316](index=316&type=chunk)[318](index=318&type=chunk)

Core Viewpoint - Valley National Bancorp's shares have increased by 10% compared to a year ago, indicating recovery from previous concerns regarding the credit quality of commercial real estate in the New York area. However, the stock has declined by over 15% from its recent highs [1]. Group 1 - Valley National Bancorp's stock performance reflects a recovery trend after addressing credit quality fears in the commercial real estate sector [1]. - The stock's current valuation shows a significant drop of more than 15% from its peak, suggesting potential volatility in the market [1].