Core Insights - The SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT) has shown an 11.05% return over the past year, but its performance has slowed with only a 2.47% increase year-to-date and a 3.34% decline in the past month, indicating uncertainty in consumer spending [1] Retail Performance - Walmart (WMT) exceeded revenue estimates by $4.33 billion, driven by a 27% surge in eCommerce sales, resulting in a 15.65% stock increase year-to-date [1] - TJX Companies reported a 5% rise in comparable sales and a 7.49% increase in total revenue, benefiting from consumers shifting towards value retailers [1] - Dollar General (DG) achieved a 37.6% EPS beat and 2.5% same-store sales growth, reflecting the trend of value-seeking consumer behavior [1] - Target (TGT) experienced an 18.91% decline in operating income, struggling to maintain competitiveness without a clear value proposition [1] Consumer Spending Trends - The performance of XRT is closely tied to U.S. consumer spending, with December 2025 retail sales reported at $735 billion, flat month-over-month but up 3.3% year-over-year [1] - A decline in monthly growth below 2% or consecutive negative months could exert downward pressure on XRT, compressing margins across its holdings [1] - The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index is at 52.9, indicating recessionary territory, with sustained readings below 50 signaling potential spending declines [1] Equal-Weight Methodology - XRT's equal-weight structure allows smaller retailers to have the same influence as larger ones, which can lead to significant performance shifts during quarterly rebalancing events [1] - Monitoring State Street's monthly holdings files and quarterly rebalance announcements is crucial for understanding potential changes in exposure to discount versus full-price retail [1]

Group 1 - Walmart Inc. (NASDAQ:WMT) shares have increased by 29% over the past year and by 18.7% year-to-date [1] - Oppenheimer raised Walmart's share price target to $140 from $125, maintaining an Outperform rating, citing strong holiday sales and favorable conditions [1] - Walmart became the first retailer to achieve a valuation milestone of $1 trillion earlier this month [1] Group 2 - Tigress Financial noted Walmart's effective implementation of artificial intelligence to enhance revenue growth and customer relations [1] - Jim Cramer has frequently praised Walmart's ability to lower prices, reinforcing the company's strong market position [1][4]

Core Viewpoint - Walmart is expected to report strong fourth-quarter earnings, with revenue projected at $189.18 billion, an increase from $180.55 billion in the same quarter last year, and earnings per share anticipated to rise to 73 cents from 66 cents [2][3]. Earnings Estimates - Analysts predict Walmart's fourth-quarter revenue will be $189.18 billion, marking a year-over-year increase of approximately 4.5% [2]. - The expected earnings per share for the fourth quarter is 73 cents, up from 66 cents in the previous year [2]. Analyst Insights - Walmart has consistently exceeded revenue estimates for over 15 consecutive quarters and earnings estimates in seven of the last eight quarters [2][3]. - Market experts suggest that while Walmart's stock may perform well post-earnings, it may not sustain a rally due to high expectations already priced into the stock [4]. - Walmart's price-to-earnings ratio is noted to be 46, higher than most of the "Magnificent Seven" stocks, indicating a premium valuation [5]. CEO Transition - The upcoming earnings report will be the first under new CEO John Furner, with expectations of continued market share gains and stable comparable sales growth in the 4%-5% range [6]. Recent Performance - Walmart has shown consistent U.S. comparable sales growth in the range of 4.5%-4.8% over the last four quarters [7]. - The company's international sales have also seen a year-over-year increase of 10.8% [8]. Key Items to Watch - Investors are keen to see how consumer spending trends are reflected in the earnings report, particularly whether there is a shift from name-brand to private-label products [8]. - Strong growth in both U.S. and international segments, along with positive guidance for the next fiscal year, is anticipated to impact major stock market indexes and consumer staple ETFs significantly [9]. Stock Performance - As of the latest report, Walmart's stock is trading at $128.63, down 0.2%, with a year-to-date increase of 14.1% and a 52-week increase of 23.9% [11].

Walmart (WMT) posted fourth quarter earnings on Thursday morning that slightly beat Wall Street's estimates, giving a readout on the key holiday shopping season in its first report under new CEO John Furner. The retailer, whose market cap recently eclipsed $1 trillion for the first time, reported adjusted earnings per share of $0.74 in the quarter. That was a touch higher than the Street forecast of $0.73, per Bloomberg consensus data. Revenue increased 5.6% to $190.7 billion, basically in line with Wa ...

Walmart (WMT) is set to report earnings on Thursday morning, the first for its new CEO, John Furner, and a report that offers a readout of the key holiday shopping season after the company's market cap recently eclipsed $1 trillion for the first time. The retailer is expected to report adjusted earnings per share of $0.73, per Bloomberg consensus data. Revenue is expected to increase nearly 6% to $190 billion. Same-store sales for its US business are expected to grow 4.3%, driven by e-commerce strength ...

Walmart (WMT) posted quarterly earnings on Thursday morning that slightly beat Wall Street's estimates, giving a readout on the key holiday shopping season in its first report under new CEO John Furner. The retailer, whose market cap recently eclipsed $1 trillion for the first time, reported adjusted earnings per share of $0.74 in the period, its fiscal Q4 2026. That was a touch higher than the Street forecast of $0.73, per Bloomberg consensus data. Revenue increased 5.6% to $190.7 billion, basically i ...

Core Insights - The upcoming earnings releases from major Retail-Wholesale players are expected to shape near-term market sentiment, with modest growth anticipated in sales and earnings following the holiday shopping season [1] - The sector is projected to achieve fourth-quarter revenue growth of 6.7% year over year, while earnings are expected to rise by 3.5%, indicating a slowdown from previous growth rates [2] Group 1: Earnings Trends - Consumer spending trends significantly influenced retail performance during the holiday season, with December retail sales unchanged month over month, reflecting a slowdown from November's 0.6% gain [4] - Year-over-year retail sales increased by 2.4% in December and 3.3% in November, indicating some resilience despite the month-over-month stagnation [4] - The slowdown in consumer spending is attributed to moderating job growth, policy uncertainty, and elevated household cost pressures, leading consumers to prioritize essentials and seek discounts [5] Group 2: Margin Pressures - Inflation trends, although moderating, continue to impact consumer budgets and retailers' cost structures, exerting pressure on margins for those unable to pass on higher costs [6] - Retailers with strong pricing power and efficient supply-chain management are better positioned to protect profitability amid these challenges [6] Group 3: E-commerce and Inventory Management - E-commerce and omnichannel execution are critical differentiators, with retailers that integrate digital and physical channels effectively capturing demand during peak shopping periods [7] - Inventory discipline is vital for profitability, with retailers using advanced analytics to align stock levels with demand, thus avoiding excessive markdowns [8] Group 4: Company-Specific Insights - **Dollar General**: Positioned well with a Zacks Rank 2 and an Earnings ESP of +16.26%, supported by market share gains and strategic initiatives like "Project Elevate" [10][11] - **Walmart**: Holds a Zacks Rank 3 and an Earnings ESP of +1.31%, leveraging e-commerce momentum and a commitment to low prices, with a stable earnings estimate suggesting a 10.6% year-over-year increase [14][15] - **Home Depot**: Also a Zacks Rank 3 with an Earnings ESP of +5.61%, focusing on professional contractors and utilizing AI tools to enhance project planning [16][17] - **Dollar Tree**: With a Zacks Rank 3 and an Earnings ESP of +1.63%, the company is enhancing its value proposition and operational discipline following the decision to move forward without the Family Dollar brand [18][19][20]

Group 1 - The software trade, particularly in cybersecurity, is experiencing pressure, exemplified by Palo Alto Networks (PANW) shares falling by up to 6% after the company revised its full-year earnings outlook downward [1] - As of February 13, 74% of S&P 500 companies have reported their results, with blended earnings growth at 13.2%, indicating a strong performance overall [1] - If the current growth rate of 13.2% is maintained, it would mark the 10th consecutive quarter of annual earnings growth for the S&P 500 and the fifth consecutive quarter of double-digit growth [2] Group 2 - General Mills (GIS) shares declined following disappointing earnings, while eToro (ETOR) saw a stock increase of over 20% due to a strong quarterly performance [2] - Upcoming earnings reports from major companies such as Walmart (WMT), Deere & Co. (DE), Analog Devices (ADI), Booking Holdings (BKNG), DoorDash (DASH), and eBay (EBAY) will be closely monitored by investors [3]

Wednesday features Analog Devices Inc. and Booking Holdings Inc. before Walmart Inc. and Deere & Company headline Thursday's 40+ reports including Southern Company (The) and multiple utilities. Next Monday sees heavy energy activity before the period culminates Next Tuesday and Next Wednesday with Home Depot Inc. (The), TJX Companies Inc. (The), and Lowe's Companies Inc. reporting pre-market, followed by NVIDIA Corporation and Salesforce Inc. after the close. Disclaimer: This article is for informational pu ...

美联储会议纪要今晚公布。将于北京时间周四凌晨3点公布的美联储1月会议纪要可能会为央行未来的货币政策路径提供更多洞察。值得注意的是,两位美 联储理事斯蒂芬·米兰和克里斯托弗·沃勒对美联储上月维持利率不变并暂停自去年年中以来的一系列降息决定表示反对。政策制定者强调就业形势趋于稳 定以及通胀稳定的迹象,作为将利率维持在3.5%至3.75%的理由。官员们也普遍倾向于至少在6月之前将利率维持在这一区间,采取观望态度,试图观察未来几 个月就业和价格涨幅的演变。同时,美联储主席鲍威尔即将结束其央行掌门人的任期。特朗普已提名前美联储理事沃什接替鲍威尔,投资者一直在试图摸清 沃什的利率政策可能与其前任有何不同。 美国能源部长：对格陵兰的主要兴趣不是稀土。美国能源部长赖特称，特朗普政府对格陵兰的主要兴趣在于国家安全，而非开发其稀土或能源资源。特 朗普长期以来一直寻求控制格陵兰，自他重返白宫以来，其政府一直在就开发当地尚未开发的矿产资源进行谈判。但赖特周二表示，这些努力只是次要 目标的一部分，即美国寻求扩大在格陵兰岛的军事存在的同时，为格陵兰人创造更多经济机会。 "七巨头"2026年开局不利拖累大盘，标普500关键支撑位处于失守边 ...