Group 1 - Xiaomi Group-W (01810.HK) has seen a stock price increase of over 3%, currently up by 3.1% at HKD 44.54 [1] - The trading volume for Xiaomi Group-W reached HKD 4.838 billion [1]

Core Viewpoint - Xiaomi Group's stock price increased by over 3%, reaching HKD 44.54, with a trading volume of HKD 4.838 billion, driven by positive news regarding its automotive division [1] Group 1: Automotive Delivery and Performance - Xiaomi's official Weibo announced that by October 2025, the company expects to maintain a delivery volume exceeding 40,000 vehicles [1] - According to Guojin Securities, Xiaomi's automotive deliveries for the first ten months of this year have surpassed 290,000 units, more than double the total deliveries for the previous year [1] - Xiaomi's official Weibo also reported that as of October 31, 2025, the total payment amount across all channels has exceeded HKD 18.2 billion [1] Group 2: Investor Sentiment and Market Position - Recent research from Dongfang Securities indicates that some investors have concerns regarding Xiaomi's technological innovation and execution capabilities, particularly regarding the sustainability of growth across its automotive and smart home businesses [1] - Dongfang Securities believes that Xiaomi has significantly improved its competitiveness in new feature development and product manufacturing, establishing a stronger operational ecosystem [1] - The company's ability to innovate and scale its products is expected to continue enhancing, driving sustained growth across its automotive and smart home sectors [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that Xiaomi's automotive delivery volume is expected to exceed 40,000 units by September 2025, showcasing its enhanced product innovation and operational capabilities [1] - Xiaomi's monthly delivery volume of automobiles surpassed 30,000 units for the first time in July 2025 and further exceeded 40,000 units in September 2025, indicating strong production capacity expansion [1] - The company has introduced a tax subsidy scheme to encourage consumers to place orders by the end of November 2025, which is expected to support the achievement of annual delivery targets and future growth in the automotive business [1] Group 2 - In the smartphone sector, Xiaomi maintained a global market share of 14% in Q3 2025, ranking third globally [2] - The launch of the new Xiaomi 17 series, featuring innovative functions, has driven a 30% increase in sales compared to the previous generation, with Pro versions accounting for over 80% of sales [2] - The company forecasts earnings per share of 1.63, 2.06, and 2.60 yuan for 2025-2027, with a target price of 71.65 HKD based on a 32x PE valuation for comparable companies in 2026 [2]

Core Viewpoint - Xiaomi Group's stock price experienced a decline of 3.2% in early trading on October 30, reaching a six-month low [1] Company Summary - Xiaomi Group's stock performance indicates a significant downturn, reflecting potential investor concerns or market conditions affecting the company [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Xiaomi Group with a target price of 71.65 HKD, based on a 32x PE valuation for 2026 [3][6]. Core Insights - The report highlights strong performance in automotive deliveries and sales of the Xiaomi 17 series, with a notable increase in monthly deliveries exceeding 40,000 units in September 2025 [2][9]. - The company is expected to see significant growth in earnings per share, projected at 1.63, 2.06, and 2.60 CNY for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [3][10]. - Revenue forecasts show a recovery with expected growth rates of 35% in 2024 and 31% in 2025, followed by 24% growth in 2026 and 2027 [5][10]. Financial Summary - Revenue (in million CNY) is projected to grow from 270,970 in 2023 to 735,676 in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 24% [5]. - Operating profit is expected to increase significantly from 20,009 million CNY in 2023 to 74,753 million CNY in 2027, reflecting a growth rate of 610% in 2024 [5]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to rise from 17,475 million CNY in 2023 to 67,848 million CNY in 2027, with a growth rate of 606% in 2024 [5]. - The gross margin is expected to improve from 21.7% in 2023 to 24.0% in 2027, while the net margin is projected to increase from 6.4% to 9.2% over the same period [5].

Core Insights - The Hubei Provincial Party Secretary Wang Zhonglin visited the Wuhan East Lake New Technology Development Zone to investigate the development of the smart terminal industry [1] - Wang expressed hope for Xiaomi to accelerate the second phase of its smart home appliance factory project in Wuhan, aiming to promote the production of advanced smart terminal technology products in Hubei [1] - The initiative aims to establish a strong industrial cluster effect by attracting more supply chain enterprises, thereby injecting robust momentum into the growth of Hubei's smart terminal industry [1] Company Insights - Xiaomi Group's Chairman Lei Jun engaged in discussions with Wang Zhonglin during the visit, highlighting the company's role in the local smart manufacturing sector [1] - The focus on smart home appliances indicates Xiaomi's commitment to expanding its manufacturing capabilities in Hubei, which could enhance its competitive edge in the smart terminal market [1] Industry Insights - The visit underscores the Hubei government's strategy to leverage leading enterprises like Xiaomi to foster industrial development and innovation in the smart terminal sector [1] - The emphasis on creating a demonstration benchmark in smart manufacturing reflects a broader trend of regional governments supporting high-tech industries to drive economic growth [1]

Core Viewpoint - Lei Jun responded to questions regarding the REDMI K90 series, focusing on speaker, camera features, and phone accessories [1] Group 1: Speaker Features - The K90 Pro Max features a large rear speaker with two layers of protection: an outer metal dust cover and an inner dust net, passing the IP68 dust and water resistance test [3] - Users can utilize the built-in speaker cleaning function or visit service points for deep cleaning if dust accumulates [3] Group 2: Camera Features - The K90 series supports a "Super Moon" feature that activates automatically when zooming in on the moon at 20x or more [4] - The camera watermark function has been significantly upgraded, offering various types of watermarks, including motion, standard, check-in, classic, and film watermarks, with enhanced customization options [4] - Users can customize watermark details such as border position, frame color, and personalized labels, with varying levels of customization across different watermark types [4]

Core Viewpoint - The Hubei Provincial Party Secretary Wang Zhonglin emphasized the importance of accelerating the construction of Xiaomi's smart home appliance factory in Wuhan, aiming to enhance the smart terminal industry in Hubei and attract more supply chain enterprises to form a strong industrial cluster [1] Group 1: Company Development - Xiaomi Group is encouraged to expedite the second phase of its smart home appliance factory project in Wuhan [1] - The company is expected to promote the transformation and production of advanced technology products in Hubei [1] Group 2: Industry Impact - The initiative aims to create a demonstration benchmark in the field of smart manufacturing [1] - The focus is on leveraging leading enterprises to attract more supply chain companies, thereby injecting strong momentum into the growth of Hubei's smart terminal industry [1]

Core Insights - The automotive delivery volume is steadily increasing, indicating potential profitability at the operational level [1] - The smartphone gross margin is expected to be under pressure due to rising storage costs, with hopes that the high-end shift of the Xiaomi 17 series will mitigate this impact in Q4 [2] Financial Projections - Adjusted revenue forecasts for Xiaomi Group (1810.HK) for FY2025E-FY2027E are set at RMB 482.3 billion, 634.7 billion, and 750.6 billion respectively, down from previous estimates of RMB 489.1 billion, 641.8 billion, and 758.4 billion [1] - Adjusted net profit forecasts are revised to RMB 43.6 billion, 67.9 billion, and 83.3 billion for the same period, compared to prior estimates of RMB 45.4 billion, 68.1 billion, and 83.6 billion [1] - The target price for Xiaomi Group is adjusted to HKD 65.7, maintaining a "Buy" rating [1] Automotive Sector Performance - The automotive delivery volume is expected to reach approximately 109,000 units in Q3, with an anticipated increase in average selling price (ASP) due to the ramp-up of Yu7 deliveries, leading to an estimated automotive sales revenue of around RMB 29.2 billion [1] - Xiaomi's automotive division is projected to achieve operational profitability in Q3 due to scale effects and cost reduction measures [1] Smartphone Market Dynamics - In Q3 2025, global smartphone shipments increased by 2.6% year-on-year, with Xiaomi's shipments rising by 1.8% to 43.5 million units, capturing a market share of 13.5%, a slight decline of 0.1 percentage points year-on-year [2] - In the Chinese market, Xiaomi's smartphone shipments decreased by 1.7% to 10 million units in Q3 2025 [2] - The smartphone gross margin is expected to decline by 0.5 percentage points to 11% in Q3 due to the impact of rising storage costs and a decrease in sales proportion from the Chinese market [2] IOT and Internet Revenue - IOT revenue is projected to grow by 6% year-on-year to RMB 27.7 billion in Q3, although it is expected to decline quarter-on-quarter due to seasonal factors and subsidy reductions [2] - The IOT gross margin is anticipated to increase by 0.5 percentage points to 23% [2] - Internet revenue is expected to rise by 7.7% year-on-year, maintaining a gross margin of 75.4% quarter-on-quarter [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Xiaomi Group (1810.HK) with a target price adjusted to HKD 65.7 [7][13]. Core Insights - The automotive delivery volume is steadily increasing, indicating potential profitability at the operational level. The report anticipates that Xiaomi's automotive deliveries will approach 109,000 units in Q3, with an expected automotive sales revenue of approximately RMB 29.2 billion [3][11]. - The smartphone segment is facing pressure on gross margins due to rising storage costs, but the upcoming Xiaomi 17 series is expected to shift towards higher-end models, which may mitigate these impacts in Q4 [3][11]. - The Internet of Things (IoT) segment is projected to show stable revenue and gross profit contributions, with expected revenue growth of 6% year-on-year in Q3 [11]. Financial Summary - Total revenue projections for Xiaomi Group are as follows: RMB 270.971 billion in 2023, RMB 365.932 billion in 2024, RMB 482.278 billion in 2025E, RMB 634.727 billion in 2026E, and RMB 750.562 billion in 2027E, reflecting a growth rate of 35.0% in 2024 and 31.8% in 2025E [5][16]. - Adjusted net profit forecasts are RMB 19.273 billion for 2023, RMB 27.235 billion for 2024, RMB 43.629 billion for 2025E, RMB 67.894 billion for 2026E, and RMB 83.319 billion for 2027E, with a significant growth of 126.3% in 2023 [5][16]. - The gross profit margin is expected to be 21.2% in 2023, slightly decreasing to 20.9% in 2024, and then improving to 22.6% by 2025E [5][16]. Revenue Breakdown - Smartphone revenue is projected to decline slightly in the short term, with a year-on-year decrease of 5.8% expected in 2023, but a recovery is anticipated in subsequent years [14]. - IoT revenue is expected to grow steadily, with projections of RMB 134.976 billion by 2025E, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 29.7% [14]. - Automotive revenue is projected to reach RMB 106.647 billion by 2025E, with a significant year-on-year growth of 225.6% [14]. Valuation Metrics - The report assigns a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 30x for Xiaomi's core business (smartphones, IoT, and internet services) for FY2025, reflecting a premium due to the synergy across hardware and AI potential [13][18]. - The automotive business is valued at a price-to-sales (PS) ratio of 2.5x for FY2025, based on Xiaomi's established supply chain management capabilities and brand strength [13][18].