March 23, 2025 10:00 PM GMT Meituan | Asia Pacific Core OP Intact, but Wider New Initiatives Loss and Increased AI Investment We continue to estimate 2025 CLC OP at Rmb61bn, but expect the new initiatives loss to widen to Rmb9.5bn on a slower loss reduction pace for Select. Impact from the social security scheme should kick in from 2Q, but limited effect on 2025 food delivery OP and UE. OW. 4Q24 beat on CLC OP: Total revenue and adjusted EBITDA were largely in line with consensus, while core local commerce ...

March 20, 2025 09:00 PM GMT China Equity Strategy | Asia Pacific A-Share Sentiment Edged Down on Lower Trading Volume A-share sentiment dropped with lower trading volume but remains elevated. We expect some volatility in the earnings season, but remain cautiously optimistic on a six-/12-month basis. Watch for geopolitical developments and tariff-related US government investigations on April 2. A-share investor sentiment dropped vs. pervious week: Weighted MSASI and simple MSASI dropped 7ppt to 84% and 5ppt ...

March 17, 2025 10:14 PM GMT Asia Economics | Asia Pacific M Idea The Viewpoint: Seeking Reciprocity – What's Next? Raising defense spending and putting tariffs on China were raised as potential asks for a trade deal in addition to importing more from the US to fix the trade balance. We explore if other Asia economies will be able to meet these demands and what this means. Key Takeaways Morgan Stanley Asia Limited Jonathan Cheung Economist Jonathan.Cheung@morganstanley.com +852 2848-5652 Kelly Wang Economist ...

Related reports: Tech Capex Up, Broad Recovery Still Elusive (14 March 2025) Strong Public Financing, Weak Household Credit (14 March 2025) Morgan Stanley Asia Limited Robin Xing Chief China Economist Robin.Xing@morganstanley.com +852 2848-6511 Jenny Zheng, CFA Economist Jenny.L.Zheng@morganstanley.com +852 3963-4015 March 16, 2025 09:11 PM GMT Investor Presentation | Asia Pacific M Foundation Beijing's Stimulus, Tech and Reflation Foundation M New Competitive Edges Emerged For important disclosures, refer ...

March 17, 2025 02:24 PM GMT China Economics | Asia Pacific Consumption Press Conference: Modest Stimulus, Limited Clarity Key Takeaways Modest increase in welfare spending: The press conference disclosed a marginal increase (~Rmb4bn) in central government subsidies for basic public health service, basic medical assistance, and promotion of employment. These combined with the NPC's slightly improved basic pension and medical insurance amount to a Rmb75bn rise in basic welfare spending in 2025 over 2024. Limi ...

March 17, 2025 04:21 AM GMT China Economics | Asia Pacific Q1 GDP Tracking at 5.4%, Limited Policy Actions Ahead Key Takeaways Strong start to the year: FAI saw the largest beat, with a large uptick in housing investment as we expected, but manufacturing and infrastructure investment also came in stronger than we expected on policy support. The beat in industrial production also defied softer-than-expected (yet still decent) exports somewhat amid possible front-loading. Growth mix echoes policy support: Loc ...

Investment Rating - The report suggests a defensive macro positioning, favoring long government bond duration in the US and the UK, and shorting the US dollar [11][39][40]. Core Insights - The report highlights significant uncertainty surrounding US trade policy, which has led to a decline in investor and CEO confidence, potentially impacting economic activity [12][15][31]. - The upcoming FOMC meeting is anticipated to either alleviate or heighten concerns regarding economic growth, with expectations for a steady message from the Fed [32][39]. - The report notes that the S&P 500 has lost 10% from its all-time high, reflecting heightened uncertainty in economic policy [12][31]. Summary by Sections US Rates Strategy - The report indicates that US Treasury yields are expected to decline further due to ongoing tariff threats and fiscal austerity, with no signs of overextension in the current market [44][46]. - A hawkish dot-plot from the Fed could extend the bull market in Treasuries, while the current market conditions suggest a defensive stance [44][46]. UK Rates Strategy - The report turns bullish on UK duration, suggesting an attractive opportunity for lower yields ahead of the Spring Forecast, despite recent weak trading [51][55]. G10 FX Strategy - The report maintains a bearish outlook on the USD, recommending shorts against EUR, GBP, and JPY, while targeting a resistance level of 1.12 for EUR/USD [58][61]. Japanese Investment Behavior - The report revisits the investment behavior of Japanese investors, who hold approximately US$48 trillion in financial assets, indicating potential impacts on asset class performance due to recent economic changes [53][56].

March 17, 2025 04:01 AM GMT M Idea Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC Michael J Wilson Equity Strategist M.Wilson@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-2532 Andrew B Pauker Equity Strategist Andrew.Pauker@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-1330 Michelle M. Weaver, CFA Equity Strategist Michelle.M.Weaver@morganstanley.com +1 212 296-5254 Diane Ding, Ph.D. Quantitative Strategist Qian.Ding@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-6758 Nicholas Lentini, CFA Equity Strategist Nick.Lentini@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-5863 Morgan Stanley does and s ...

SALES AND TRADING COMMENTARY ONLY (NOT A PRODUCT OF MS RESEARCH) FOR INSTITUTIONAL USE ONLY NOT FOR DISTRIBUTION TO KOREA AND PRC CLIENTS FOR QIBS ONLY IN THE US The China Playbook Quarterly Ideas from Sales Spring Edition 2024 | SALES IDEAS | Research Rating* | Sales Call | Sales Investment Horizon Target | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Single Stocks | | | | | Dongfeng Motor Group (489 HK) | EW | Long | 6 Months | | Meitu Inc (1357 HK) | OW | Long | 6 Months | | Tencent (700 HK) | OW | Long | 6 Months | | Sh ...

M Idea Last Chance to Turn Defensive We don't expect the Asia IG spread to stay as resilient as it has been recently. Tariff risk and weaker demand technicals should drive the Asia IG spread wider. We believe that Asia credit investors have limited time to take advantage of the current compressed spreads to turn defensive. Key Takeaways Exhibit 1: Asia credit investors can still switch out of Asia IG into lower-beta Japan IG without losing spread (20) 5 30 55 80 105 Jan-13 Jul-13 Feb-14 Aug-14 Mar-15 Oct-15 ...