Investment Rating - The report suggests a "Buy" rating in lagging sectors, particularly in Property and Healthcare, while advising to trim extremely overbought AI proxies [2][3][26]. Core Insights - The MXCN index has performed well with a year-to-date increase of 15%, driven by factors such as AI advancements and better-than-expected consumption during the Lunar New Year [3][19]. - The consensus FTM EPS estimate for MXCN has been revised up by 2.5% since September 2024, indicating positive sentiment in the market [3][17]. - Property shares are expected to see tactical upside as stabilization continues, with potential new policy support if sales weaken further [3][26]. - Healthcare is anticipated to show structural upside, particularly in medtech and biotech, with better revenue guidance expected for 2025 [7][28]. Summary by Sector Property - The property sector has been underperforming but shows signs of recovery, with new home prices in Tier 1 and Tier 2 cities rising by 0.1% month-on-month in January 2025 [6][26]. - Positive developments include increased mortgage demand and a recovery in transactions post-policy relaxations [6][26]. - Preferred picks in this sector include COLI, CR Land, and BEKE [6][26]. Healthcare - The healthcare sector has been the second worst performing MSCI sector but is expected to see positive revenue guidance for 2025, particularly in medtech with a projected 10-15% year-on-year growth [7][28]. - Leading biotech firms are expected to turn EBITDA positive in 2025, with strong sales growth anticipated [7][28]. - Preferred picks include Mindray and Akeso [7][28]. Consumer Staples - The consumer staples sector, which has been the worst performing value sector since the first half of 2021, may benefit from property stabilization [8][26]. - Selected firms in the food and beverage segment have reported net profit growth due to effective distribution channel optimization [8][26]. - Preferred picks include Anta and Tsingtao Brewery [8][26]. AI and Technology - AI-related stocks have become short-term overbought, with several companies reaching a 14-day RSI reading near or over 80 [9][26]. - The report highlights the importance of underlying inventory and new product cycles for tech hardware and semiconductors [9][26]. - The software segment is facing challenges due to delayed IT spending from corporate clients, leading to decreased contract sales [9][26]. Financials - The financial sector is seeing strong returns and volume in bonds and equities, with banks projecting around 10% net profit growth for 2024 [29][28]. - Investment gains among insurance and brokers have been solid, supported by tech-enabled risk management [29][28]. Industrials - The industrials sector is experiencing tight supply-demand conditions, particularly in marine and transport infrastructure, driven by a replacement cycle and strong demand from the US [30][28]. - Consensus earnings for major players in this sector have risen significantly for 2024/25 [30][28].

Laura Wang Equity Strategist Laura.Wang@morganstanley.com +852 2848-6853 February 19, 2025 09:00 PM GMT China Equity Strategy M Asia Pacific Insight Getting Out of the Woods We see sustainable structural improvement on ROE and valuation regime shift for offshore Chinese equities, enabled by corporate self-help, shareholder return enhancement actions, improved geopolitical conditions, and affirmation of government support for private sectors. Upgrade to EW with higher price targets for MSCI China and Hang Se ...

February 24, 2025 09:04 AM GMT ASIA CREDIT STRATEGY What Happened to China Property? What's Next? The Default Cycle in 12 Charts 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V：shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V：shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V：shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V：shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V：shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V：shuinu9870 We are 4+ years into a default cycle for the China property sector that started in early 2021. We believe that the China property sector is finally close to end of this default cycle. However, we think that the end of def ...

Investment Rating - The humanoid robot industry is rated as having significant growth potential, with a total addressable market (TAM) estimated at 5 billion units, driven by demographic trends and labor force dynamics [11][34]. Core Insights - The humanoid robot sector is expected to replicate the success of the New Energy Vehicle (NEV) industry, supported by government initiatives and China's advanced manufacturing capabilities [11][25]. - Humanoid robots are positioned to address labor shortages by performing tasks that are dangerous, repetitive, or undesirable for human workers, enhancing workplace safety and operational efficiency [6][18]. - The adoption curve for humanoid robots is anticipated to accelerate rapidly over the next five years, mirroring the NEV take-off trend of the 2010s [34][37]. Market Dynamics - The working-age population in China is projected to shrink significantly, leading to increased labor costs and reduced productivity, which presents opportunities for the robotics industry to fill labor gaps [13][18]. - The global average of robot density has surged, with countries like South Korea leading in industrial robot use, indicating a growing trend towards automation across various sectors [18][19]. - Policy initiatives in various countries, including Japan and the EU, are driving innovation and competitiveness in the robotics sector, creating a favorable environment for humanoid robot development [19][20]. Technological Advancements - Advancements in AI, robotics, and battery technology are expected to make humanoid robots cheaper and more efficient, driving rapid consumer adoption [30][34]. - Major tech companies are investing in humanoid robot technology, enhancing capabilities and expanding use-case scenarios [30][31]. - The emergence of new models and technologies, such as the DeepSeek R1, could alleviate hardware challenges and drive innovations in the humanoid robot space [30][34]. Competitive Landscape - Key players in the humanoid robot industry include Sanhua Intelligent, Leader Drive, and Hengli Hydraulic, which are well-positioned to capitalize on the expanding market [11][25]. - The supply chain for humanoid robots is supported by China's advanced manufacturing capabilities, focusing on critical components such as motors, reducers, and sensors [6][25]. - Collaborative robots (cobots) and autonomous mobile robots (AGVs) are crucial to the development of humanoid robots, sharing key technologies and principles [50].

Global Markets Strategy 21 February 2025 China Equity Strategy AI adoption takeaways from JPM's China Forum Positive on AI capable vertical leaders as the China rally broadens. We attended JPM's China Opportunities Forum in Shenzhen (Feb 13-14) and found almost all non-tech corporates are rapidly adopting DeepSeek to optimize cost, improve efficiency, lift productivity, and identify new business opportunities. The equal and low-cost access to DeepSeek, an advanced productivity enhancement tool, should incre ...

Asia Pacific Equity Research 21 February 2025 Alibaba Group Holding Limited (BABA US & 9988 HK) Source: Company data, Bloomberg Finance L.P., J.P. Morgan estimates. n/c = no change. All prices as of 19 Feb 25 except for 9988 HK [20 Feb 25]. See page 10 for analyst certification and important disclosures, including non-US analyst disclosures. J.P. Morgan does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of in ...

Key Takeaways | | | | Alibaba Group YE Mar | Dec-23 3Q24 | Sep-24 2q25 | Dec-24 3Q25 | 3Q25 | Diff | YoY | QoQ | 3Q25 | Diff | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | RMB mn | Actual | Actual | Actual | Mse | % | % | % | Consensus | % | | Revenue Income from operations | 260,348 22,511 | 236,503 35,246 | 280,154 41,205 | 278,675 46,835 | 0.5% -12.0% | 7.6% 83.0% | 18.5% 16.9% | 278,521 45,024 | 0.6% -8.5% | | Adjusted EBITA Non-GAAP Net Profit | 52,843 47,951 | 40,561 36,518 | 54,853 ...