Global Equity and Credit Research 12 May 2025 J P M O R G A N Global Supply Chains Introducing our Global Trade Chokepoint Monitor In this first edition of our Global Trade Chokepoint Monitor we introduce this collaborative report across our cross-asset Global Transport teams. We highlight the Suez Canal (and the Bab el-Mandeb strait) as the key global trade chokepoint of interest currently as transits remain 90% below normal operations for containerships (60% below for all vessels), with all other major tr ...

May 11, 2025 09:00 PM GMT China Market-Wise | Asia Pacific M Idea How China Market Dynamics May Shift as Trade Talks Kick Off Investors at our China BEST Conference confirmed rising interest and willingness to allocate towards China. More measured macro and earnings drag from tariffs than peers and low positioning point to a better chance of inflow upside than downside. Expect US-China trade talks to be prolonged. New developments externally (trade talks) and domestically (PBOC & CSRC easing gestures) lead ...

LONGi Green Energy Technology Co Ltd | Asia Pacific Key takeaways from the BEST Conference Key Takeaways LONGi expects 10% global demand growth in 2025 in an optimistic scenario, but the management sees domestic demand in 2H25 as uncertain. Europe and the US may deliver single digit increases, but emerging markets in the Middle East and India are set to see robust demand. While oversupply may sustain until a real turning point occurs, maybe 4Q25/1Q26 at the earliest after industry players navigate around th ...

May 12, 2025 10:21 AM GMT China Economics | Asia Pacific Morgan Stanley Asia Limited US-China Tariff Cut: Sooner and Deeper US-China tariff de-escalation arrived faster and deeper than the market expected with a joint announcement today of reversal of the tit-for-tat tariff escalation and suspension of 24% of the remaining reciprocal 34% hike for a 90-day window, from May 14. This puts the effective US trade-weighed tariff on China at ~40%, down from 107%, significantly better than our baseline assumption o ...

May 12, 2025 10:40 AM GMT Investor Presentation | Asia Pacific 20% 20% 34% tariff hikes by 90 days 3% 3% 125% 10% 125% 10% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 140% 160% Innitial Plan Current Level Initial Plan Current Level US Tariff Hike on China China Tariff Hike on the US US-China Tariff Hike in 2025 (Exemptions not Considered) Feb-Mar 25 Apr-25 Fentanyl related tariff Reciprocal tariff Tit-for-tat tariffs 107% 71% 61% 45% 11% 22% 34% 59% 123% 40% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 140% Jan-25 Feb-25 Mar-25 Apr 2, 20 ...

M Idea May 11, 2025 10:00 PM GMT Asia | Asia Pacific Three Actionable Ideas Xiaomi – OW | Will Semiconductor – OW | Accton Technology – OW OW – Xiaomi (1810.HK): We believe the launch of Xiaomi's SU7 Ultra has kicked off its luxury car journey, and the launch of its second EV, YU7, could also be a significant positive catalyst in 2025. Raise PT to HK$62. OW – Will Semiconductor (603501.SS): We dive into the AI glasses supply chain and identify key potential semiconductor beneficiaries if AI glasses shipment ...

May 11, 2025 11:28 PM GMT China Equity Strategy | Asia Pacific Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+ M Update Laura.Wang@morganstanley.com +852 2848-6853 Substantial Progress Made at US/China Trade Talks - Positive for Sentiment and Flow China's Vice Premier, He Lifeng, and US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, who led the US/China trade talks in Geneva, stated at a press conference that important consensus and substantive progress had been achieved (see report). The two sides ...

May 11, 2025 09:00 PM GMT China Market-Wise | Asia Pacific M Idea How China Market Dynamics May Shift as Trade Talks Kick Off Investors at our China BEST Conference confirmed rising interest and willingness to allocate towards China. More measured macro and earnings drag from tariffs than peers and low positioning point to a better chance of inflow upside than downside. Expect US-China trade talks to be prolonged. New developments externally (trade talks) and domestically (PBOC & CSRC easing gestures) lead ...

Morgan Stanley Asia Limited Robin Xing Chief China Economist Robin.Xing@morganstanley.com +852 2848-6511 Jenny Zheng, CFA Economist Jenny.L.Zheng@morganstanley.com +852 3963-4015 May 11, 2025 09:41 PM GMT Investor Presentation | Asia Pacific M Foundation Growth Pain Beneath the Surface Related reports: Growth Pain Beneath the Surface (9 May 2025) Direct Tariff Impact Mitigated by Rerouting (9 May 2025) For important disclosures, refer to the Disclosure Section, located at the end of this report. M Possible ...

Core CPI held up, for now: Core CPI YoY remained robust at 0.5%Y (vs. 0.5% in March) and 0.7% MoM SAAR. In April, core goods prices (home appliances, cars and mobile phones) were largely stable on the back of the trade-in program; tourism- related prices slightly improved, such as tourism services (-0.5%Y vs. -0.9% in March) and hotel rooms, which is included in miscellaneous services (6.6%Y vs. 6.2% in March). Apart from core prices, food inflation was the highest in 5 months, led by fruit and beef amid co ...