半导体 AI眼镜——聚焦亚洲供应链 更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木Alpha 智能眼镜1.0发生了什么？自2012年谷歌眼镜首次推出以来，智能眼镜行业一直 在努力寻求市场定位，但由于以下原因未取得实质性成功：1）硬件限制，2）不 佳的子界面设计，3）缺乏杀手级应用。 如今，生成式人工智能赋能的智能眼镜2.0已问世：依视路集团与Meta合作的 Ray-Ban智能眼镜自2023年9月第二代产品发布以来，销量已突破200万台 ，部分得益于其领先的AI大语言模型Llama 2。 Meta表示，Llama 3训练中加入图 像内容，将有助于今年晚些时候对Ray-Ban Meta智能眼镜的升级。谷歌于4月 发布了安卓XR，展示了由Gemini AI驱动的轻量级XR智能眼镜。值得注 意的是，谷歌4月展示的AI+XR智能眼镜由Avegant制造，配备了基于供应 链验证的硅基液晶反射显示技术（LCOS）与波导显示解决方案（LCOS由Raontec h供应）。 鉴于海力士在硅基液晶反射显示技术（LCoS）制造方面的强大能力 ，海力士是否会成为量产合作伙伴仍有待观察。 更多一手海外资讯和海外投行报告加V：shu ...

更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木Alpha May 6, 2025 07:13 PM GMT Global EM Strategist M Global Idea A New Phase in Flows EM fixed income investors are voting with their feet on the outlook for the USD, with flows returning to EM local market funds while hard currency sees continued outflows. Does a new era beckon? Key Takeaways Must reads from Global EM Strategy EM Fixed Income Strategy and Economics – IMF Spring Meetings Takeaways | 30-Apr-2025 We summarise our views from the IMF Spring Meetings, including highlig ...

更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木Alpha Key Takeaways May 7, 2025 04:43 AM GMT Semiconductors | North America Memory markets continue strong despite tariff concerns, raising numbers for MU Memory pricing has inflected materially over the last few months, and even more so over recent weeks. Sustainability is a concern, but numbers are going higher. More positive MU as core DRAM improvements add to an AI story hitting escape velocity. Morgan Stanley does and seeks to do business with companies covered in Morgan Stanl ...

更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木Alpha May 6, 2025 02:13 AM GMT Gree Electric Appliances Inc of Zhuhai | Asia Pacific Risk Reward Update What's Changed Updated Components EPS Investment Thesis Bull Base Bear Scenarios Risk Reward for Gree Electric Appliances Inc of Zhuhai (000651.SZ) has been updated Reason for change We slightly cut our 2025-26 revenue by 2-3% given gradual fading trade-in effect amid macro uncertainties, but lift our earnings estimates by 5-6% given better margin trend as shown in 1Q25. We also ...

May 6, 2025 02:21 AM GMT Midea Group Co Ltd. | Asia Pacific Risk Reward Update 更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木Alpha What's Changed Updated Components EPS Investment Thesis Bull Base Bear Scenarios Risk Reward for Midea Group Co Ltd. (000333.SZ) has been updated Reason for change We keep our 2025 forecasts largely unchanged given unchanged guidance. We slightly cut 2026 revenue and net profit estimates by 1% to reflect a higher base from stronger pull-forward effect from trade-in subsidy amid high macro uncertain ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a cautious outlook on credit markets, suggesting that spreads are below average while risks are above average, leading to a challenging risk/reward scenario [4][22][38]. Core Insights - The report highlights that while tariff volatility may be decreasing, economic data weakness is anticipated, with growth expected to slow to 0.6% in 2025 and inflation firming in the third quarter [38]. - It emphasizes that current credit valuations are underpricing recession risks, which are estimated at 10-25% compared to economists' expectations of around 40% [38]. - The report notes a healthy microeconomic environment for credit, with corporate balance sheets in better shape than in previous slowdowns, characterized by high cash levels and manageable maturities [38]. Summary by Sections Global Credit Overview - The report discusses the recovery of global equity markets, which have regained losses since early April, driven by a positive earnings season and solid job data [3][9]. - It mentions that the 'pause' in tariffs has raised hopes for more flexible US trade policies, while economic data has shown generally positive trends [12][13]. US Credit Strategy - The report outlines that default pressures are building in private credit due to weaker growth and fewer rate cuts, although structural guardrails are in place to mitigate vulnerabilities [5][40]. - It suggests that investment-grade credit is positioned well due to the sell-off in rates, with a preference for long-end, low $ bonds, particularly in Financials and Utilities sectors [38]. Private Credit Insights - The report indicates that while direct lending companies have shown resilience, risks are rising due to elevated rates and potential economic spillovers from tariffs [40][42]. - It highlights that the historical default rate for private credit is around 5%, with risks skewed to the upside given current policy uncertainties [42]. Dim Sum Bond Market - The report notes that the Dim Sum corporate bond market is becoming a global funding option, offering cheap funding for issuers, similar to Japan's Samurai bond market in the 2000s [6][41]. - It anticipates increased participation from foreign investors as the supply of Dim Sum bonds grows [43]. Sector Credit Research - The report summarizes trade recommendations across various sectors, indicating that the retail and consumer sectors have underperformed due to tariff uncertainties [49]. - It also discusses the energy sector, noting that high yield energy has underperformed amid oil price concerns, with updated free cash flow analyses reflecting current market conditions [56].

更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木Alpha May 6, 2025 01:05 PM GMT China Property | Asia Pacific M Update Weekly Database Tracker #18 Key Takeaways Weekly primary unit sales in 50 cities were up 34% y-y (vs. -5% last week) for the week ended May 4: Tier 1 city sales were up 45% y-y (vs. -6%). Tier 2 city sales were up 18% y-y (vs. -6%). Tier 3 city sales were up 94% y-y (vs. +1%). Weekly secondary unit sales in 10 cities were +57% y-y (vs. +7% last week): Tier 1 city weekly secondary unit sales were +52% y-y (vs. +20 ...

更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木Alpha 7 May 2025 Global Software How exposed are Software, Cloud and the Hyperscale Cloud providers to different regions? See the Disclosure Appendix of this report for required disclosures, analyst certifications and other important information. Alternatively, visit our Global Research Disclosure Website. First Published: 07 May 2025 10:21 UTC Completion Date: 07 May 2025 10:21 UTC www.bernsteinresearch.com 更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木Alpha Mark L. Moerdler, Ph.D. +1 917 344 8506 ma ...

May 9, 2025 04:58 AM GMT SMIC | Asia Pacific Weak 2Q25 guidance; EW 2Q25 guidance missed: SMIC guided 2Q25 revenue to be down by 4-6% Q/Q and GM of 18-20% (down 2.5-4.5ppts Q/Q), due to: 1) blended ASP decline given lower yield caused by one-time maintenance incident and new equipment's underperformance; 2) rising equipment depreciation. Management believes new equipment debugging will take time and blended ASP pressure may persist until Q3. Here are some key takeaways from SMIC's 1Q25 analyst meeting: Keep ...

Investment Rating - The report downgrades the investment rating for Hua Hong Semiconductor Ltd from Overweight to Equal-weight [1][6][27] Core Insights - The rising depreciation burden and intense pricing competition in the 8-inch wafer market are expected to lead to gross margin erosion in 2025 and 2026, indicating that the stock appears fairly valued [1][6][38] - The company guided for 2Q25 revenue of US$550-570 million, with a gross margin forecast of 7-9%, reflecting a decline due to increased depreciation costs and the ramp-up of the new 12-inch fab [3][13] - The pricing environment for 8-inch wafers remains soft, which is likely to hinder gross margin recovery for Hua Hong [4][38] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - 1Q25 revenue was US$541 million, showing a 0.3% increase quarter-over-quarter but an 18% decrease year-over-year, with a gross margin of 9.2%, down 2.2 percentage points from the previous quarter [2][11] - The company reported a net income of US$4 million in 1Q25, a significant decline compared to the previous year [11] Guidance and Projections - For 2Q25, the company expects revenue to be between US$550-570 million, with a gross margin of 7-9%, indicating a continued decline in profitability [3][13] - The report revises the 2025 EPS estimate down by 14% but raises the 2026 and 2027 EPS forecasts by 5% and 6%, respectively, due to anticipated capacity and shipment growth trends [23][24] Market Dynamics - The report highlights that the 12-inch wafer demand remains strong, which may gradually drive up prices, while the 8-inch wafer market faces pricing pressure due to increased competition [4][38] - The acquisition of HLMC is noted, with plans for integration by 2026, focusing on overlapping mature-node business [5][38] Valuation - The price target for Hua Hong is raised to HK$34.00 from HK$32.00, reflecting changes in the EPS estimates for 2025-2027 [25][27] - The stock is currently trading at 1.2 times the estimated book value per share for 2025, which is considered fair compared to historical averages [27][39]