Global Markets Strategy 02 March 2025 This material is neither intended to be distributed to Mainland China investors nor to provide securities investment consultancy services within the territory of Mainland China. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. China Equity Strategy Trade ideas ahead of the March NPC Ahead of the March 5th NPC, we expand our Feb 19th call (4Q24 results: Buy in lagging sectors) for rotating from ex ...

J P M O R G A N Asia Pacific Equity Research 03 March 2025 TSMC Addressing "CoWoS order cuts" during a period of strong demand and tight supply In the last couple of days,severalinvestors have asked us about broadCoWoSorder cuts from various customers, mainly NVDA and Marvell/ AWS(for Trainium 2). Based on oursupply chain research,indeed some ofthe very high initial projections (which were well above JPMe andTSMC's ability to fulfill)for 2025 demand have come down ~8-10%. Our preliminary view isthat this do ...

摩根士丹利邢自强：光有科创带不动，还得政策发力！ （日期：20250228）.mp4 2025-03-02 摘要 Q&A • 中国凭借丰富人才、完整供应链和民营企业韧性，克服外部挑战，AI 应用、 人形机器人和智能驾驶汽车领域展现投资机会，经济和市场信心有所回暖。 • 美国市场波动之际，港股表现强势，表明中国资产仍具吸引力。外资对中 国产业链和科创能力重估，短线对冲基金和北水南下已显现兴趣。 • 长线投资者仍在调研，若宏观政策发力，抓住科创信心回升契机，外资对 中国信心有望进一步恢复，利好中国市场。 • 民营企业家座谈会高度认可科创行业民营企业的重要性，释放积极政策信 号，激发企业家热情，有助于下一阶段科技革命。 • 通过宏观政策支持消费、完善社会保障福利、规范执法，有望进一步提振 民营经济活力，促进经济发展。 • 《哪吒 2》等爆款产品表明消费潜力，未来或加大以旧换新补贴力度，并 支持文化娱乐、游戏等服务业消费，形成良性生态系统。 • 长期提振消费需夯实社会保障体系，打破高储蓄低消费倾向，实现经济更 加平衡，促进经济可持续发展。 外资对中国资产的态度如何？他们的信心是否有所恢复？ 近期美国市场波动较大，而以 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the AI industry but emphasizes the transformative potential of AI technologies, suggesting a positive outlook for investment opportunities in this sector [6][7]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the AI landscape is rapidly evolving, with significant advancements in generative AI and the emergence of agentic AI, which could reshape industries and workforce dynamics [6][7][8]. - Predictions for 2025 include a shift towards agentic AI and the potential for artificial superintelligence, indicating a transformative impact on society comparable to historical technological advancements [7][8]. - The report discusses the implications of Jevons Paradox, suggesting that as AI becomes cheaper and more efficient, overall consumption of AI resources may increase, leading to greater demand [22][32]. Industry Developments and News - The report notes a competitive landscape with major players like OpenAI, Meta, and Google releasing new models and technologies, while NVIDIA continues to innovate in chip technology [6][8][19]. - The generative AI market is projected to grow from $50 billion to $1.3 trillion by 2032, creating new job opportunities in AI model development and ethical governance [52]. - The report identifies a trend of companies integrating AI into their operations, with significant layoffs in traditional roles as businesses adapt to AI capabilities [45][46][56]. Predictions for 2025 - The report outlines ten key predictions for 2025, including the rise of agentic AI, advancements in robotics, and the increasing prevalence of physical AI [8][9]. - It anticipates that AI will significantly impact various sectors, including healthcare, finance, and manufacturing, driven by advancements in generative AI and machine learning [97][113]. Job Market Impact - The report discusses the dual-faceted impact of AI on the job market, predicting a net gain of 12 million jobs by 2025 despite the displacement of 85 million roles [47][56]. - It emphasizes the need for upskilling and reskilling to address skill gaps in the workforce, particularly in AI-related fields [45][49]. Technological Advancements - The report highlights recent advancements in AI technologies, including the development of new models like DeepSeek-R1 and improvements in existing models from major companies [19][58]. - It discusses the integration of AI in various applications, such as enhanced data analysis tools and improved natural language processing capabilities [70][75]. Ethical Considerations - The report addresses the ethical implications of AI, including concerns about algorithmic bias and the need for responsible AI governance [101][108]. - It mentions ongoing efforts to establish regulatory frameworks for AI, such as the EU Artificial Intelligence Act and the NIST AI Risk Management Framework [105][106].

February 25, 2025 04:28 PM GMT RESEARCH Commodities The Oil Manual – Chartbook Source: Shutterstock Morgan Stanley does and seeks to do business with companies covered in Morgan Stanley Research. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of Morgan Stanley Research. Investors should consider Morgan Stanley Research as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For analyst certification and other important disclosures, ...

February 25, 2025 05:01 AM GMT M Idea From the Global Director of Research | North America Charts That Caught My Eye A guiding principle at Morgan Stanley Research is to enhance your investment process by delivering unique insights that separate the signal from the noise. An intuitively designed and well-crafted chart can often accomplish this with exceptional clarity. With that mission in mind, these charts in our recently published research stood out to me. Please reach out to me with feedback on these or ...

February 26, 2025 11:17 AM GMT US Rates Strategy | North America How Low Can UST Yields Go? For analyst certification and other important disclosures, refer to the Disclosure Section, located at the end of this report. A buyers' strike, momentum-driven duration shedding, macro fund reflation trades, and a hawkish pivot from the Fed catalyzed higher yields from September. Every factor reversed after the presidential inauguration save for one. Rhetoric from FOMC participants is less dovish than before the ele ...

February 26, 2025 07:39 AM GMT China Musings | Asia Pacific NPC: Unlikely a Catalyst NPC growth targets and fiscal budget could be in line with consensus: a modest expansion with mild support on consumption and tech, albeit lack of deeper social welfare reform. What it means? Tech animal spirits return but broader reflation remains slow. With annual NPC drawing close, market focus starts to shift from recent AI euphoria back to economic fundamentals and macro policy. The week-long NPC meeting will start on ...

February 26, 2025 08:32 PM GMT Global Technology AI Cloud Capex in the Spotlight We summarize Morgan Stanley Research outlooks for different parts of the AI supply chain across regions. Key Takeaways Positive commentaries from CSPs driving up capex: The supply chain is complicated, but our supply chain 101 guide, "Unraveling the Global Cloud AI Supply Chain," can help explain its structure and decode its implications and contradictions. We have updated our Global Cloud Capex Tracker following the earnings r ...

February 24, 2025 01:24 AM GMT Why did the US dollar decline in 2017? Trade policy, global growth, and European politics contributed. Fiscal and Fed policy were less supportive than believed. We think the USD will decline this year for a number of the same reasons it fell in 2017. Key Takeaways Please click here to be added to my distribution list. Exhibit 1: 2025 expectations compared to 2017 and 2018 | The 2017 Dollar Redux | Strategist | | +1 212 761-5287 V：shuinu9870 | Andrew.Watrous@morganstanley.com A ...