Investment Rating - The investment rating for Shanghai United Imaging Healthcare Co is Equal-weight [10] Core Insights - The outlook for early 2026 in China indicates that the equipment upgrade programs initiated in 2025 are expected to support a sustainable industry recovery into the second half of 2025 and 2026, aided by larger funding and increased government support [1] - Management anticipates overseas growth in 2025 to reach the high end of the guided range of 35-50% year-over-year, with Europe expected to lead this growth at over 100% [2] - The company has achieved significant supply chain self-sufficiency, producing most of its <5MW CT tubes domestically while sourcing larger tubes from US and EU suppliers, aiming for increased internal production in the near future [3] Summary by Sections Financial Metrics - The current price target for Shanghai United Imaging Healthcare Co is Rmb158.00, representing a 6% upside from the closing price of Rmb148.75 on September 25, 2025 [10] - Projected revenue growth is expected to rise from Rmb10,300 million in 2024 to Rmb17,940.5 million by 2027 [10] - Earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to increase from Rmb1.53 in 2024 to Rmb3.49 in 2027 [10] Market Position - The competitive landscape for high-end medical equipment in China shows a significant domestic market share, with imports declining in various segments [5][7] - The company is positioned to benefit from favorable regulatory developments and market share gains, alongside potential margin expansion through economies of scale [15]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a bearish outlook on the USD due to increasing Fed dovishness and contrasts with foreign central banks [63] Core Insights - The market pricing of Fed policy is expected to move well below the September 2024 low, with current market pricing remaining approximately 50 basis points above the economists' probability-weighted path [63] - The report indicates that the market-implied trough rate places little probability on a recession, suggesting a skew towards a more dovish Fed path [63] - US Treasury yields are anticipated to decline, with the term premium expected to remain range-bound [63] - The report highlights a tension between the Fed's focus on labor market weakness and the equity market's focus on future earnings improvements [63] - Credit markets are expected to see compelling all-in credit yields with good carry relative to cash and inflation [63] - Emerging Market (EM) sovereign credit is projected to have supportive technicals, with expectations of positive total returns driven by lower UST yields [63] Summary by Sections US Treasury and Fed Policy - The market-implied trough fed funds rate is projected to fall further, with current pricing suggesting a more hawkish Fed path than the baseline [9][63] - The report emphasizes that the Fed's dovish stance contrasts with foreign central banks, which may lead to a weaker USD [63] US Equities - The report notes a potential disconnect between the Fed's concerns over labor market data and the equity market's focus on improving earnings revisions and pricing power [63] Credit Markets - All-in credit yields are described as compelling, with a preference for the belly of the curve (5-10 years) in investment-grade (IG) for carry and roll-down strategies [37][63] - High-yield (HY) bonds are favored over floating-rate loans amid accelerating inflows and better price convexity [63] Emerging Market Sovereign Credit - The report suggests maintaining spread betas slightly lower than the benchmark, with a preference for BB bonds and a focus on specific countries like South Africa, Mexico, and Guatemala [61][63]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the CSI 300 index until the end of 2026, driven by a shift in residents' asset allocation towards the stock market, which supports a potential increase in the price-to-earnings ratio over the next 12 months [3][5]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the potential opportunities arising from the "14th Five-Year Plan" (2026-2030), particularly focusing on the themes of anti-involution and service consumption. Anti-involution is expected to drive cyclical improvements across various industries, contributing to the overall earnings targets of the CSI 300 index by the second half of 2025 and into 2026 [1][3]. - The service consumption sector is projected to benefit from the government's goal of increasing residents' income during the new five-year plan period. Key catalysts include specific numerical indicators, such as the contribution of service consumption to China's economic growth [1][3][5]. - The report identifies healthcare, financial services, and cultural entertainment as sectors with relevant investment targets, highlighting the potential for significant growth in service consumption compared to developed markets [5][9]. Summary by Sections Anti-Involution - The report outlines an 18-24 month market outlook focused on normalizing prices and investment returns. If executed effectively, anti-involution measures could lead to substantial growth in residents' wealth through stock appreciation driven by profit, cash flow, and dividend growth [3][4]. - The anticipated changes in the "14th Five-Year Plan" may impose stricter regulations and fiscal discipline to curb local government corporatization, potentially leading to mergers and increased industry concentration [3][4]. Service Consumption - The report notes that China's service consumption still has significant growth potential, closely linked to per capita GDP and income levels. Current service consumption levels are comparable to those in the U.S. in the early 1970s, suggesting room for improvement [5][6]. - Investment targets in the service consumption sector include healthcare services, finance, and cultural entertainment, with a focus on companies that meet specific market capitalization and trading volume criteria [5][9]. Stock Selection - The report provides a selection of A-share companies involved in anti-involution measures, emphasizing those with the worst profitability as potential beneficiaries of policy support [6][10]. - A detailed analysis of selected stocks in healthcare, education, film, online gaming, and tourism sectors is included, focusing on companies with significant market capitalization and trading activity [8][10].

Investment Rating - The report downgrades the investment rating of Pop Mart to Neutral from Overweight, with a price target (PT) of HK$300, down from HK$400 [1][3][9]. Core Insights - The long-term investment thesis for Pop Mart remains intact, supported by its strong brand equity and sales momentum, despite recent challenges such as declining Google search interest and resale prices [1][9]. - The report highlights that the share price has increased significantly, with a 209% year-to-date rise and a 466% increase over the past year, leading to a valuation that is considered priced for perfection [1][9]. - Upcoming catalysts, including the release of new animation and product launches, have low visibility, which may impact future performance [1][9]. Summary by Sections Investment Thesis - Pop Mart is a leader in China's IP merchandise market, with a diverse portfolio of over 100 owned and licensed IPs, 571 retail stores, and 2,577 roboshops across more than 30 countries [9][10]. - The company is expected to benefit from its proven capability in sourcing and monetizing IP through social media, a diversified IP portfolio, and significant global exposure [9][10]. Financial Estimates - Revenue is projected to grow from Rmb13,038 million in FY24 to Rmb49,559 million in FY27, with a year-on-year growth rate of 106.9% in FY24 and 20.1% in FY27 [8][25]. - Adjusted net income is expected to rise from Rmb3,220 million in FY25 to Rmb17,890 million in FY27, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 34% [8][25]. Valuation - The price target of HK$300 is derived using a PEG ratio of 1.1x, which is a 40% discount to the market-cap weighted average PEG of comparable companies [10]. - The report indicates that the current valuation reflects a 25x P/E for 2026 estimates, suggesting that the stock is fairly valued given its growth prospects [10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" (OW) rating for several key stocks within the "anti-involution" theme, indicating a positive outlook for these investments [10]. Core Insights - The "anti-involution" theme is projected as a significant trade over the next 18-24 months, focusing on rationalizing local government-backed investments and enhancing returns on investments (ROIs) in the Chinese equity market [2][5]. - The report identifies three primary ecosystems for investment: "renewables proxies," "property + macro proxies," and "ecommerce proxies," with a strong preference for renewables due to better topline profiles and execution capabilities [2][5]. - The report highlights that the "anti-involution" policy is crucial for the expansion of the Chinese equity market, as it aims to improve ROIs, which are essential for attracting institutional investments [2][5]. Summary by Sections Anti-Involution Theme - The "anti-involution" policy is compared to previous initiatives aimed at controlling capital expansion, with a focus on reducing over-capacity and improving fiscal discipline [2][5]. - The report anticipates a "Decade of Consolidation" in various sectors, driven by increased M&A activity as local corporatism is curtailed [5]. Stock Performance - Price returns from July 1 to September 5, 2025, show that renewable proxies, particularly battery, lithium, and solar shares, have outperformed with returns of 39%, 37%, and 33% respectively [5][35]. - In contrast, sectors like autos and ecommerce have lagged, with returns flat to -4%, reflecting ongoing competitive pressures and uncertainties regarding subsidies [5][35]. Top Picks - The report lists top stock picks to express the "anti-involution" theme, including Baosteel, CATL, Daqo, and PetroChina, among others, indicating a focus on sectors with strong growth potential [10][5]. - Updated stock screens categorize stocks into renewable proxies, property + macro proxies, and consumption proxies, providing a structured approach to investment selection [5][10]. Market Context - The report notes that households in China held approximately US$24 trillion in cash and deposits as of June 2025, raising questions about the ability of equities to generate sufficient earnings and dividends to absorb this liquidity [18]. - The report emphasizes that the current market environment, characterized by declining fixed income returns and rising volatility, is pushing investors towards equities as a more attractive investment avenue [12][18].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an Equal-weight (EW) rating for global equities, Overweight (OW) for US equities, and Underweight (UW) for 'Other' fixed income [72]. Core Insights - The economic outlook suggests a transition from a rolling recession to a rolling recovery, with expectations of a 25 basis point cut in the federal funds rate in September, followed by quarterly cuts to a terminal rate of 2.75-3.0% by the end of 2026 [72]. - US equities are expected to perform well, supported by a weak jobs report indicating a shift to early cycle conditions [72]. - The report anticipates lower Treasury yields and a steeper yield curve, with a focus on 3s30s curve steepeners and long duration in 5-year US Treasuries [72]. - A bearish outlook on the US dollar is maintained, driven by lower market rates and persistent inflation above target, which could erode real yields [72]. - The credit outlook highlights that investment-grade (IG) fixed income offers carry, momentum, and value, but lower yields pose a significant risk [72]. - The report emphasizes a preference for US equities over the rest of the world (RoW) while remaining bearish on the USD [72]. Economic Outlook - The median company has been in a recession for three years, indicating that the rolling recession is well advanced and likely troughed in April [6]. - The rebound in earnings revisions breadth is seen as convincing evidence that the recession's trough is behind us [8]. - Lagging labor data are confirming that the recession is behind us, although weaker labor data may be needed to prompt aggressive Fed cuts [11][13]. Interest Rates and Treasury Yields - Risks are increasingly skewed towards much lower rates, with US Treasury yields reflecting market-implied trough fed funds rates [19]. - The report indicates that lower front-end US Treasury yields have been the main driver of the steeper yield curve this year [23]. - The strategy remains committed to long duration with 5-year US Treasuries and 3s30s curve steepeners [28]. Currency Strategy - The report is more bearish on the USD than consensus, predicting EUR/USD to reach 1.20 this year and 1.25 by mid-2026 [34]. - Factors contributing to USD weakness include the end of US GDP outperformance versus the rest of the world, further declines in US yields, and large external deficits [36][37]. Credit Market Insights - Corporates are facing better trends compared to sovereigns, which are experiencing greater supply headwinds [53]. - Credit flows are yield-driven, and significantly lower yields present a key risk [55]. - The report advises caution in credit markets, suggesting that going down in quality may not yield better returns compared to other assets [59]. Asset Allocation - The report maintains a preference for US equities over RoW, while also being Overweight in core fixed income and Underweight in 'Other' fixed income [72]. - The performance of risk asset markets has shown resilience despite new US tariffs, with fundamentals and technicals remaining supportive [67].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" (OW) rating for SK Hynix, Samsung Electronics, and Micron Technology, indicating a positive outlook for these companies in the memory market [25][27][29]. Core Insights - The HBM4 qualification timeline is largely unchanged, with expectations for customer sampling results by November 2025 and small volume production in Q1 2026. Hynix is positioned to potentially lead in setting specification standards [3][4]. - Memory makers are responding to NVDA's request for higher HBM4 read/write speed specifications, which could impact qualification timelines and yield rates. The initial HBM4 specifications are expected to align with JEDEC4 standards [3][5]. - The total addressable market (TAM) for HBM4 in 2026 is projected to be between $8 billion and $9 billion, with SK Hynix expected to capture the majority of this market share [4][5]. Summary by Sections HBM4 Qualification and Market Dynamics - HBM4 qualification is anticipated to begin with customer sampling in late 2025, with Hynix and Samsung expressing confidence in meeting the new specifications [3][4]. - The competitive landscape is intensifying, with NVDA adopting a conservative approach to supplier qualification, which may lead to price negotiations among memory makers [3][4]. Pricing and Profitability - HBM4 pricing is expected to be 30-40% higher than HBM3E due to increased complexity and die size, with both memory makers aiming to maintain profitability through high price premiums [5][8]. - HBM3E pricing may face downward pressure as demand shifts towards HBM4, with potential upside risks in the ASIC segment [5][8]. Long-term Growth and Market Trends - The report emphasizes the long-term growth potential of the HBM market, particularly driven by AI inferencing needs, projecting a 47% CAGR from 2024 to 2029 [5][8]. - Memory consumption is expected to increase significantly, necessitating higher bandwidth solutions to support advanced AI applications [5][8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" (OW) rating for SK Hynix, Samsung Electronics, and Micron Technology, indicating a positive outlook for these companies in the memory market [25][12]. Core Insights - The HBM4 qualification timeline is largely unchanged, with expectations for customer sampling results by November 2025 and small volume production in Q1 2026. Hynix is positioned to set the specification standard first [3]. - Memory makers are confident in meeting the higher HBM4 read/write speed requirements, with SK Hynix historically outperforming in speed and Samsung aiming for robust performance [3]. - The total addressable market (TAM) for HBM4 in 2026 is projected to be between $8 billion and $9 billion, with SK Hynix expected to capture the majority of the supply [4]. - HBM4 pricing is anticipated to increase by 30-40% compared to HBM3E due to larger die sizes and complexity, with both memory makers prioritizing high price premiums to maintain profitability [5]. - The long-term growth thesis for HBM is supported by increasing memory consumption driven by AI applications, with OMDIA projecting a 47% CAGR from 2024 to 2029 [5]. Summary by Sections HBM4 Qualification and Market Dynamics - HBM4 qualification is expected to follow a timeline with customer sampling results by November 2025 and production starting in Q1 2026, with Hynix likely leading the qualification race [3]. - The memory makers have received requests to increase HBM die speed from 8Gbps to 10Gbps, which could impact the qualification timeline if strict requirements are enforced [3]. Pricing and Market Share - HBM4 pricing is set to increase significantly, with both memory makers aiming for price parity with conventional DRAM, indicating a more favorable pricing environment for HBM products [5]. - The report suggests that the HBM3E pricing may trend downwards as the market transitions to HBM4, with potential upside risks from the ASIC segment [5]. Long-term Market Outlook - The report emphasizes the growing demand for HBM driven by AI applications, with expectations for significant increases in memory consumption and partnerships for seamless integration [5]. - OMDIA's projections indicate a strong growth trajectory for the HBM market, with a focus on AI inferencing driving the next phase of growth [5].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a warranted Federal Reserve cut, with a near-term recession risk in the US elevated at 40% [3]. Core Insights - The report highlights a delicate balance in the US economy, with weak job growth and concerns about labor demand impacting consumer sentiment and spending [2][3]. - Despite the challenges, nominal US gross domestic income rose robustly by 6.8% annualized rate last quarter, with corporate profits also showing a significant increase of 6.8% annualized [10]. - The report indicates a surge in capital expenditures (capex), with business investment driving growth, and a notable 15.3% annualized increase in equipment spending in the first half of the year [10][11]. Summary by Sections Global Economic Outlook - The US GDP growth for 3Q25 is revised up to 2.5%, supported by strong capex and balanced income growth despite soft labor demand [9][10]. - Global capex strength remains intact, with upward revisions in GDP growth forecasts for Asia, particularly Taiwan, which is expected to see a modest 0.5% annualized rise in GDP this quarter [16]. Economic Activity Tracking - The report notes a significant 6.8% annualized gain in corporate profits, despite rising tariff payments, indicating stable profit margins [10]. - Consumer spending is expected to align with income gains, which are rising at about a 2% annualized rate, suggesting that softening labor demand is not significantly dragging on current-quarter GDP growth [11]. Regional Insights - In Japan, the economy shows resilience with positive signals from corporate sentiment and consumer confidence, despite some recent declines in industrial production [18]. - India's GDP growth for 2Q surpassed expectations at 7.8% year-over-year, but the impact of new US tariffs is anticipated to pose risks to labor-intensive sectors [26]. Global Trade and Industrial Activity - Global industrial production stalled, with export volumes contracting at a 2.5% annualized rate, particularly affecting the Euro area [14]. - Despite challenges, US tech import demand remains resilient, and there is underlying strength in global capex [15].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an equal-weight rating on equities, overweight in core fixed income, and underweight in other fixed income [3][4][5]. Core Insights - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is expected to cut the funds rate by 25 basis points in September, with further quarterly cuts anticipated, leading to a terminal rate of 2.75-3.0% by the end of 2026 [1][18]. - The report indicates a step down in global growth due to tariff impacts, with the US experiencing additional drag from immigration restrictions [7][8]. - US markets are viewed as unmatched in size and liquidity, but rising policy uncertainty may pressure the dollar as foreign investors increase FX-hedging ratios [3][12]. Economic Forecasts - Global GDP growth is projected at 2.6% for 2025 and 3.0% for 2026, with inflation expected to remain at 2.0% for both years [8]. - The US GDP growth is forecasted at 1.0% for 2025 and 1.1% for 2026, with inflation rates of 2.9% and 2.5% respectively [8]. - The Euro area is expected to have GDP growth of 1.0% in 2025 and 1.1% in 2026, with inflation rates of 2.1% and 1.8% [8]. Sector Recommendations - In the US, a preference for quality cyclicals, large caps, and stocks with high operational efficiency is emphasized, while in Japan, focus is on domestic reflation and corporate reform beneficiaries [5][6]. - Key sectors in Europe recommended for overweight positions include defense, banks, software, telecoms, and diversified financials [5]. - Emerging markets are favored towards financials and profitability leaders, with a preference for domestic-focused businesses over exporters [5]. Market Dynamics - The report notes that risk assets are benefiting from "less bad" news, particularly for stocks previously priced for worst-case scenarios, while Treasuries are rallying on anticipated Fed cuts [2][3]. - The oil market is expected to return to a sizeable surplus, likely driving Brent prices down but not below $60 per barrel [14]. - European gas and global LNG prices are currently range-bound, with potential supply risks in September that could tighten balances [15].