上周五，亚太股市个别发展，印度 股市领涨，台股领跌；港股连跌三 日后，恒指及恒科指回升，国指收 跌；内地 A 股止步四连跌，主要指 数齐收升；欧洲三大股市齐涨；美 国股市亦全面上涨。 中信证券财富管理 (香港) 免责声明请参考封底 板 块 要 闻 亚太主要指数 主要指数 市场仍忧虑中国经济动力，国际油价反弹 2 日后回落。上周五纽约期油下跌 1.4%，报 77.16 美元/桶；布伦特 原油期货下跌 1.5%，报 81.13 美元/桶 中信证券财富管理 (香港) 上周五全球股市抛售势头缓和，叠加企业业绩强劲，带动欧洲股市整体收高。截至收盘，英国富时 100 指数报 8,285.7 点，升 99 点或 1.2%；德国 DAX 指数报 18,417.6 点，升 118 点或 0.6%；法国 CAC 40 指数报 7,517.7 点，升 90 点或 1.2%。 资料来源：相关公司、中信证券 风险等级：由低至高分 1 至 5 级 产品及投资方案部 I 环球市场动态 I 2024 年 7 月 29 日 资料来源：彭博、中信证券 * 2024 年彭博综合预测 ^ 在岸人民币汇价 | --- | --- | --- | -- ...

对 美 股 近 期 的 业 绩 预 期 波 动 不 需 太 过 担 忧 重点新闻：美国二季度实际 GDP 季调环比折年率达 2.8%，高于前值 1.4%和市场预期 2%；美国二季度核心 PCE 初值升 2.9%，预期涨 2.7%；美国 6 月耐用品订单环比降 6.6%，预期增 0.3%；美国财长耶伦：最新数 据反映美国经济稳步迈向软着陆；哈里斯全国民调支持率仅落后特朗普一个百分点；日元周四猛然间走强在全 球市场引发大范围平仓；中国安排 3,000 亿元超长期特别国债资金，支持设备更新和消费品以旧换新；中国从 周四起提高汽车报废更新补贴标准；OpenAI 推 AI 网上搜寻工具 SearchGPT；据悉 Meta 将面临欧盟巨额反 托辣斯罚单；特斯拉董事会将讨论对人工智能初创公司 xAI 投资 50 亿美元事宜；市场研究机构 Canalys 称 iPhone 二季度内地出货量跌 3.9%。 港股科技股跟随外围走弱，加上 A 股弱势持续，周四港股显著下跌。 欧洲股市个别发展，英股上升，德 法股市下跌。美股先升后触顶回 落，道指升幅几乎全蒸发，纳指跌 幅居前。拉美主要两大市场下跌， 亚太股市全线走弱。 固 定 收 ...

Financial Data and Key Indicator Changes - Steel prices continue to decline, leading to a more pessimistic market sentiment, with many steel mills announcing production cuts to quickly digest old inventory [15][5] - Short-term losses for steel mills are difficult to reverse, and if plate inventory worsens, there may be room for production cuts at current iron water levels around 240 [15][5] - The overall valuation support for the black series is currently at around 90 USD for iron ore [15] Business Line Data and Key Indicator Changes - Steel production has seen a slight decrease due to increased maintenance of blast furnaces, but production is expected to recover as maintenance concludes and new furnaces come online [7] - The demand for steel is in the latter half of the off-season, with scrap steel production significantly reduced and iron water remaining high [8][6] Market Data and Key Indicator Changes - Domestic interest rate cuts have been less than market expectations, leading to a muted response in commodity prices [6] - The market is currently experiencing signs of recession both domestically and internationally, affecting overall demand [6] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focusing on managing costs and production levels in response to weak demand and declining prices [5][6] - There is an emphasis on monitoring government actions for effective turnaround signals, particularly regarding GDP targets and political meetings [5] Management Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed that the current operating environment is challenging, with weak demand limiting upward price movements [6] - Future support for the market is expected to come from government actions rather than market-driven factors [5] Other Important Information - The report highlights the need for caution regarding potential risks, including infrastructure investment and export volume increases, which could impact supply and demand dynamics [6][5] Q&A Session Summary Question: What are the expectations for steel prices in the near term? - Steel prices are expected to remain under pressure due to weak demand and high inventory levels, with a potential for further declines if production cuts are not implemented [6] Question: How is the company planning to address the current market challenges? - The company is focusing on cost management and production adjustments to navigate the current weak demand environment [5]

Financial Data and Key Indicator Changes - Concerns over weakening demand are suppressing prices across the non-ferrous metals sector, with macroeconomic indicators showing a slowdown in growth [1][2] - The overall supply-demand situation for basic metals is showing slight improvement, but concerns about demand weakness continue to weigh on prices [1][2] Business Line Data and Key Indicator Changes - Copper: Demand concerns are pressuring prices, with a significant drop in imports of anode copper in June, down 33.03% month-on-month and 27.76% year-on-year [5] - Aluminum: The supply-demand balance remains under pressure, with prices showing volatility and a significant increase in exports of aluminum and aluminum products [12] - Zinc: The macroeconomic sentiment has declined, leading to a short-term drop in zinc prices, with production and import figures showing a decrease [15] - Lead: The market is experiencing low inventory levels, but the demand outlook remains weak due to competition from lithium batteries [15] - Nickel: Prices are under pressure due to macroeconomic sentiment, despite stable demand from the battery sector [22] - Tin: Supply disruptions in key mining regions have led to a temporary boost in tin prices [28] - Industrial Silicon: Accumulating inventory pressures are leading to a weak price outlook [31] - Lithium Carbonate: The supply-demand situation remains loose, with prices under pressure [32] Market Data and Key Indicator Changes - The manufacturing PMI in the Eurozone and the US showed declines, indicating a slowdown in economic activity [5] - China's imports of refined zinc and copper have decreased significantly, reflecting a broader trend of reduced demand [15][5] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The non-ferrous metals sector is focusing on monitoring policy changes in China and Indonesia, which could impact supply dynamics [7][11] - Companies are advised to remain cautious and observe market conditions before making significant investments [12][15] Management Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed concerns about the potential for a slower-than-expected recovery in consumption, alongside tightening monetary policies from the Federal Reserve [2][5] - The overall sentiment in the market is cautious, with a focus on geopolitical risks and their potential impact on supply chains [2][5] Other Important Information - The report highlights the importance of monitoring inventory levels across various metals, as they can significantly influence price movements [31][15] - Risk factors include unexpected geopolitical developments, tighter monetary policies, and slower-than-expected recovery in domestic demand [2][5] Q&A Session Summary Question: What are the expectations for copper prices in the near term? - The market is currently observing a downward trend in copper prices due to demand concerns, with a focus on the potential for price stabilization around the 73,000-76,000 range [5] Question: How is the aluminum market responding to current economic conditions? - The aluminum market is facing pressure from both supply and demand sides, with recent government policies aimed at energy efficiency potentially impacting production levels [12] Question: What are the implications of the recent supply disruptions in tin production? - Supply disruptions in key regions have led to a temporary increase in tin prices, but the long-term outlook remains uncertain due to geopolitical factors [28]

Group 1 - The report suggests that the deposit interest rates in mainland China are likely to undergo another adjustment in the third quarter of this year due to recent LPR rate cuts, pressure on bank interest margins, and the issue of deposit termization [6] - A decrease in deposit rates would help banks control liability costs and further push down broad interest rates, including government bond rates [6] - The phenomenon of "deposit migration" may intensify, leading to an influx of funds into low-risk asset management products such as bank wealth management, thereby increasing the allocation power in the bond market [6] Group 2 - The report highlights that the U.S. Federal Reserve is facing increasing calls for interest rate cuts, with the yield curve for U.S. Treasury bonds steepening [7][64] - The 2-year and 10-year Treasury yield spread has reached its lowest level of the year, indicating market expectations for earlier and larger rate cuts than previously anticipated [54][64] - The report notes that the performance of high-yield bonds remains relatively stable, with selective buying observed in the Chinese real estate sector [66]

讨前打出 评级 强于大市（维持） 计算机行业202402基金重仓分析专题 低配扩大，头部集中 中信证券研究部 计算机组 杨洋版，丁奇，通偏偏，马庆对 2024年7月21日 注1，基金蛋金融银取由于公事基金产品被涨的季度盈贵，降至北蛋被蛋味协会的给十大蛋金融银 注2，公界各全职是餐廳教育共享涉于Rind，2014-校务院専拜职有比过。End餐廳教育与基全事报实际投展教育可被存在查异， 注明，我家里会议20年1月29日， 注4，行会分类身建着整行会分类，即今慰以其许在是新的行业分类只满玩史排贪网， 注5，本文质指资管转构和铁报公事化产品信息指挥要求用标准奉度重仓的拓属机构，包括基金公司、券直选管子公司、券直选管部等。 请务必阅读本页的免费多款和声明 核心观点 OB中信证券 ■ 2024Q2计算机行业低配幅度继续扩大，重仓规模占基金重仓总规模2.62%，环比-0.53pct，计算机行业基金重仓规模占行业 流适市值比例环比-0.32pct，计算机行业相较标准配置低配2.21个百分点，23Q4-24Q2低配幅度分别为1.62pcts、2.12pcts、2.12pcts、2.21pcts、低配幅度有所扩大，为近5年最大的 ...

给大家做一个分享留更多时间给大家提问有请袁总好谢谢中信的邀请那各位投资人大家好我是袁峰那借周日晚上的时间跟大家谈一下从芯片市场是芯片厂的视角来看看车的芯片 那我先简单介绍一下自己,我过去16年的工作经历都在汽车集团,然后去年是从广汽离职,那之前是广汽资本的总经理,也围绕着汽车芯片做了很多的投资,然后去年8月份加入到新联集成,所以我可能两边吧,一边是汽车厂, 有很长时间的工作经历也结合最近一年自己在芯片厂谈一谈我们现在比较火的一个课题就是车柜级芯片 首先我们先看看行业的overview,这个可能大家都比较了解,过去几年的发展,中国的新能源汽车确实取得了非常好的成绩,无论是汽车的销量,早就是全球第一,甚至占全球60%的市场份额,出口也成为汽车第一大的出口国。 然后包括了自助品牌界的新能源的崛起以及新能源的零部件我们现在看到了不单只是整车号那么中国的新能源零部件尤其是在上半场电动化上面前十大的零部件前十大的电池厂当中有六家都是中国的企业那么现在中国的零部件企业和车企业在不断的在往国外作战 但与此同时我们看到中国新能源蓬勃的发展和我们看到比如说我们对比丰田的利润大家肯定也很清楚Toyota去年一年的利润其实比中国18 ...

给大家做一个分享留更多时间给大家提问有请袁总好谢谢中信的邀请那各位投资人大家好我是袁峰那借周日晚上的时间跟大家谈一下从芯片市场是芯片厂的视角来看看车的芯片 那我先简单介绍一下自己,我过去16年的工作经历都在汽车集团,然后去年是从广汽离职,那之前是广汽资本的总经理,也围绕着汽车芯片做了很多的投资,然后去年8月份加入到新联集成,所以我可能两边吧,一边是汽车厂, 有很长时间的工作经历也结合最近一年自己在芯片厂谈一谈我们现在比较火的一个课题就是车柜级芯片 首先我们先看看行业的overview,这个可能大家都比较了解,过去几年的发展,中国的新能源汽车确实取得了非常好的成绩,无论是汽车的销量,早就是全球第一,甚至占全球60%的市场份额,出口也成为汽车第一大的出口国。 然后包括了自助品牌界的新能源的崛起以及新能源的零部件我们现在看到了不单只是整车号那么中国的新能源零部件尤其是在上半场电动化上面前十大的零部件前十大的电池厂当中有六家都是中国的企业那么现在中国的零部件企业和车企业在不断的在往国外作战 但与此同时我们看到中国新能源蓬勃的发展和我们看到比如说我们对比丰田的利润大家肯定也很清楚Toyota去年一年的利润其实比中国18 ...

环球市场动态 短期内 LPR 有 望 调 降 股 票 外 汇 / 商 品 美国国债周四走弱，市场并没有明 显经济数据催化因素，收益率曲线 熊陡，190 亿 10 年期 TIPS 发行结 果不佳；亚洲美元债较为安静，利 差小幅走阔；金地向部分债权人通 告已就 8 月 12 日到期的 4.8 亿美 金债券筹集了绝大多数资金，预计 能够全额偿付。 2024 年 7 月 19 日 重点新闻：欧洲央行按兵不动，行长暗示 9 月可能降息；美国上周首次申领失业救济人数创 5 月初以来最大增 幅；芝加哥联储行长敦促尽快下调利率；特朗普支持率领先优势扩大，据报拜登可能很快迫于压力退选；中共 三中全会强调把高质量发展作为首要任务，公报中暂无推出强刺激措施的信号；香港政府发售约 250 亿港元等 值的绿色债券；OpenAI 发布旗舰 AI 模型的更小、更便宜版本 GPT-4o mini；奈飞二季度业绩胜估计，客户量 增长超预期；台积电业绩强于预期，上调全年营收展望。 周四港股个别发展，恒指国指靠 稳，恒科指逆市下跌。内地股市先 跌后升，市场成交清淡。欧央行维 持利率不变，欧股个别发展。投资 者高位获利了结，美股先升后翻 绿。拉美货 ...

周二港股连跌两日，跑输其他亚太 区股市。三中全会召开以来Ａ股保 持维稳格局，沪指 4 连升。欧元区 经济景气指数逊预期，欧股下跌。 美股强势持续，道指升逾 700 点， 和标指齐创新高。拉美主要两大市 场变动不大。亚太股市个别发展， 印度尼西亚市场跌幅較大，台股涨 幅居前。 周二美国公布 6 月零售销售环比持平，优于预期的减少 0.3%，市场持续憧憬美联储 9 月启动降息，美国债息 回落，支持美股道指升逾 700 点，和标指齐创新高。资金继续流入小盘股，追踪小盘股表现的罗素 2000 指数 连升 5 天，录得 2020 年 4 月以来最大的 5 天升幅。截至收盘，道指涨 742 点或 1.85%，报 40,954 点；标指 升 0.64%，报 5,667 点；纳指涨 0.20%，报 18,509 点；反映中概股表现的金龙指数反弹 0.74%。标指 11 个板 块 9 个上涨，工业指数领涨大市，升 2.54%；电讯服务及信息技术指数逆市下跌 0.64%和 0.38%。美国医疗保 险公司联合健康 (UNH US) 上季每股盈利和收入都优于市场预期，股价升 6.50%，是升幅最大道指成分股。 美国银行 (BAC U ...