宏 观 研 究 [Table_Title] 杜征征 执业证书编号：S1380511090001 联系电话：010-88300843 邮箱：duzhengzheng@gkzq.com.cn 工业增加值 0 2 4 6 8 10 2022-04 2022-07 2022-10 2023-01 2023-04 2023-07 2023-10 2024-01 2024-04 2024-07 2024-10 2025-01 2025-04 % 工业增加值:累计同比 资料来源：Wind，国开证券研究与发展部 消费 资料来源：Wind，国开证券研究与发展部 -12 -6 0 6 12 18 24 2021-08 2021-12 2022-04 2022-08 2022-12 2023-04 2023-08 2023-12 2024-04 2024-08 2024-12 2025-04 % 社会消费品零售总额:当月同比 [T相关报告 able_Report] 1．《一季度开门红 内需逐步发力—3 月及一 季度经济数据点评》 关税不确定性尚存 扩内需政策加快落地 —4 月经济数据点评 [Table_Date] 2025 年 5 ...

宏 观 研 究 1. [Table_Title] 物价总体偏弱 政策加快落地 —4 月物价数据点评 [Table_Date] 2025 年 5 月 12 日 [Table_Author] 分析师： 杜征征 执业证书编号：S1380511090001 联系电话：010-88300843 邮箱：duzhengzheng@gkzq.com.cn CPI 与 PPI 资料来源：Wind，国开证券研究与发展部 -6 12 18 -2 2014-04 2015-04 2016-04 2017-04 2018-04 2019-04 2020-04 2021-04 2022-04 2023-04 2024-04 2025-04 % % CPI:同比 PPI:同比(右轴) 南华工业品指数 资料来源：Wind，国开证券研究与发展部 1,000 1,400 1,800 2,200 2,600 3,000 3,400 3,800 4,200 4,600 19-10-28 20-04-13 20-09-28 21-03-15 21-08-30 22-02-14 22-08-01 23-01-16 23-07-03 23-12-18 2 ...

Group 1: Monetary Policy Insights - The central bank's new focus on "macro-prudential" measures aims to prevent systemic financial risks and maintain financial stability[3] - Long-term interest rates have rebounded to approximately 1.86%, indicating a shift in the bond market's dynamics[3] - The central bank may aim to keep long-term interest rates within the 1.8% to 2.0% range, reflecting a cautious approach to monetary policy[4] Group 2: Market Reactions and Predictions - The expectation of rate cuts may not significantly benefit the bond market, as recent adjustments have tempered previous optimistic forecasts[11] - The bond market is currently in a negative carry state, with one-year interbank deposit rates around 1.95%, which complicates the recovery of this state[14] - Economic fundamentals are showing signs of marginal improvement, but the overall market sentiment remains cautious due to potential volatility[13] Group 3: Risks and Recommendations - Risks include unexpected changes in the economic environment, significant adjustments in monetary policy, and fluctuations in bond supply and demand[5] - The recommendation is to maintain a bearish outlook on the bond market in the short term, given the current economic indicators and market conditions[16] - The central bank's focus on supporting technology innovation financing may influence future market dynamics, particularly in the bond sector[19]

Core Insights - The construction machinery industry is expected to improve as Komatsu's working hours in China show a year-on-year increase, indicating a positive trend in demand for construction equipment [7][24]. - In January and February 2025, excavator sales in China saw significant growth, with domestic sales increasing by 99.4% to 11,640 units, and total sales reaching 19,270 units, a 52.8% year-on-year increase [23][24]. - The Chinese government plans to issue long-term special bonds worth 1.3 trillion yuan and local government bonds of 4.4 trillion yuan, which is expected to boost infrastructure projects and overall demand for construction machinery [25]. Industry Dynamics - The SW mechanical equipment index fell by 0.68% to 1,777.06 points, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 2.27 percentage points [10]. - The mechanical equipment sector's rolling price-to-earnings ratio is 42.08 times, with a premium of 119.01% over the entire A-share market, indicating a high valuation compared to historical averages [17]. - The demand for excavators is anticipated to improve further as the traditional peak sales season from March to May approaches, driven by increased infrastructure project initiation [24]. Key Data Tracking - The China Machinery Industry Association reported that excavator sales in January and February totaled 31,782 units, marking a 27.2% year-on-year increase, ending a three-year decline [23][24]. - The China Engineering Machinery Market Index (CMI) for February was 106.68, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 13.53% and a month-on-month increase of 5.44% [23]. - Komatsu's excavator working hours in China reached 122.8 hours in January and February, the highest since 2022, indicating a recovery in construction activity [24].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" [4] Core Viewpoints - The construction machinery industry is expected to improve due to positive growth in operating hours for Komatsu excavators in China, with a year-on-year increase of 100.7% in February 2025 [7][24] - The domestic and export sales of excavators have both achieved positive growth in January and February 2025, with domestic sales increasing by 99.4% to 11,640 units and export sales rising by 12.69% to 7,630 units [23][24] - The government plans to issue long-term special bonds worth 1.3 trillion yuan and arrange local government special bonds of 4.4 trillion yuan, which is expected to boost infrastructure projects and overall demand in the construction machinery sector [25] Summary by Sections Market Review and Investment Strategy - The SW machinery index fell by 0.68% to 1,777.06 points, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 2.27 percentage points [10] - The sales volume of excavators in January and February 2025 reached 31,782 units, a year-on-year increase of 27.2%, ending three consecutive years of decline [23] Industry Dynamics - The China (Hunan) Free Trade Zone Changsha area established a remanufacturing and maintenance base for construction machinery, aiming to create the first remanufacturing and maintenance standard system in China [28] Key Data Tracking - The China Machinery Industry Association reported that the construction machinery market index (CMI) for February 2025 was 106.68, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 13.53% [23] - The operating hours for Komatsu excavators in China reached 122.8 hours in January and February 2025, the highest since 2022, indicating a rise in construction project initiation [24]

Industry Rating - The industry investment rating is Neutral [3][30]. Core Insights - The recent release of the "Consumption Promotion Special Action Plan" by the State Council aims to boost consumption and expand domestic demand, which is expected to benefit the consumer healthcare market due to increased income levels and demand [4][10]. - The plan includes the establishment of a childcare subsidy system, with significant financial support for families having more children, which is anticipated to positively impact related sectors such as pediatric medication and assisted reproduction [4][10]. - The overall policy environment for the pharmaceutical industry has been positive since the beginning of the year, with a rebound in market investment enthusiasm following a prolonged adjustment period and accelerated innovation outcomes [5][11]. Summary by Sections Market Performance and Investment Strategy - The pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector rose by 1.77%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by approximately 0.18 percentage points, ranking 15th among 31 primary industries [9]. - The pharmaceutical commercial sector, driven by chain pharmacies, increased by about 6.44%, while the traditional Chinese medicine sector saw a rise of approximately 2.63% [9]. - The current TTM valuation of the pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector is around 27 times, with a valuation premium of 71% compared to all A-shares, still below the median level of 89% over the past five years [9]. Important Industry News - The National Healthcare Security Administration issued guidelines for pricing projects related to neurological medical services, paving the way for the clinical application of brain-computer interface technologies [19]. - The first IGF-1R antibody drug in China, developed by Innovent Biologics, was approved for treating thyroid eye disease [20]. - An innovative product for controlling endoscopic surgical instruments was approved, which is expected to enhance early diagnosis and treatment of gastrointestinal cancers [21][23]. Important Company Announcements - Double成药业 announced the termination of a major asset restructuring due to disagreements on transaction terms with counterparties [25]. - 蓝帆医疗 plans to issue corporate bonds not exceeding 500 million yuan to optimize its debt structure [26]. - 科伦药业's subsidiary received approval for a second indication for its core product, a targeted antibody-drug conjugate for treating advanced non-small cell lung cancer [26].

Industry Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Neutral" investment rating to the pharmaceutical and biotechnology industry [3][30]. Core Insights - The recent "Consumption Promotion Action Plan" released by the State Council aims to boost domestic demand, which is expected to benefit the consumer healthcare market due to rising income levels and increased demand [4][10]. - The plan includes the establishment of a childcare subsidy system, which is anticipated to positively impact sectors related to childbirth, such as pediatric medications and assisted reproduction [4][10]. - The pharmaceutical industry has seen a positive policy environment since the beginning of the year, with a rebound in market investment enthusiasm following a prolonged period of adjustment and accelerated innovation outcomes [5][11]. Summary by Sections Market Performance and Investment Strategy - The pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector rose by 1.77%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by approximately 0.18 percentage points, ranking 15th among 31 primary industries [9]. - The pharmaceutical commercial sector, driven by chain pharmacies, increased by about 6.44%, while the traditional Chinese medicine sector saw a rise of approximately 2.63% [9]. - The overall TTM valuation of the pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector is around 27 times, with a valuation premium of 71% compared to all A-shares, still below the median level of 89% over the past five years [9]. Important Industry News - The National Healthcare Security Administration issued guidelines for pricing projects related to neurological medical services, paving the way for the clinical application of brain-computer interface technologies [19]. - The first IGF-1R antibody drug in China, developed by Innovent Biologics, was approved for market entry, indicating advancements in treatment options for thyroid eye disease [20]. - A new innovative product for digestive endoscopy surgical instruments received approval, which is expected to enhance early diagnosis and treatment of digestive tract cancers [21][23]. Important Company Announcements - Double成药业 announced the termination of a major asset restructuring due to disagreements on transaction terms with counterparties [25]. - 蓝帆医疗 plans to issue non-public corporate bonds to optimize its debt structure, with a total scale not exceeding 500 million RMB [26]. - 科伦药业's subsidiary received approval for a second indication for its core product, a targeted antibody-drug conjugate, marking a significant milestone in lung cancer treatment [26].

Inflation Data Summary - February CPI decreased by 0.7% year-on-year, worse than the expected decline of 0.4% and previous value of 0.5%[11] - February PPI fell by 2.2% year-on-year, slightly worse than the expected decline of 2.1% and previous value of 2.3%[11] Factors Influencing CPI and PPI - The decline in CPI was primarily influenced by the high base effect from the previous year due to the Spring Festival timing, with an estimated negative impact of 1.2 percentage points from last year's price changes[11] - Excluding the Spring Festival effect, February CPI would have increased by 0.1%[11] - Food prices showed weakness, with a year-on-year decline of 1.9%, contributing approximately 0.54 percentage points to the CPI decrease[11] Government Policy and Economic Outlook - The government plans to prioritize expanding domestic demand as a key focus for the year, aiming for timely and effective policy implementation[11] - Future demand recovery is anticipated to lead to a moderate rebound in prices[11] PPI Insights - PPI's decline was attributed to seasonal factors, abundant coal supply, and fluctuations in international oil prices, with coal processing prices down by 24.7% year-on-year[17] - The construction sector's slow recovery, with only 64.6% of construction sites resuming work by late February, indicates ongoing challenges in demand[17] Risks and Considerations - Potential risks include unexpected central bank adjustments, inflation exceeding expectations, and geopolitical tensions affecting economic recovery[4]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a focus on expanding domestic demand as a key priority in the government's work report, suggesting a potential for policy implementation to accelerate in the future [3][16]. Core Insights - February CPI decreased by 0.7% year-on-year, which was weaker than the market expectation of -0.4%, while PPI fell by 2.2%, also below the expected -2.1% [3][11]. - The decline in CPI was primarily influenced by the high base effect from the previous year due to the Spring Festival, with a new impact contributing a 0.1% increase when excluding this effect [11][16]. - The report highlights that food prices were weaker than seasonal trends, with a notable decrease in fresh vegetable prices by 12.6% year-on-year [11][12]. - The government aims to address insufficient domestic demand and weak consumption by implementing policies promptly to stimulate recovery in demand and a moderate rebound in prices [3][16]. Summary by Sections CPI Analysis - February CPI's year-on-year decline was driven by the Spring Festival's timing and a high base from the previous year, with food prices showing a significant drop [11][12]. - The report notes that the service CPI and core CPI both turned negative for the first time in four years, indicating weak demand and consumption [15][16]. PPI Analysis - February PPI's year-on-year decline of 2.2% was attributed to seasonal factors, abundant coal supply, and fluctuations in international oil prices [17]. - The report suggests a potential for short-term PPI recovery due to proactive fiscal policies and improving funding rates for construction projects [17][18].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is Neutral [4][17]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes that innovation and industrial upgrades are driving high-quality development in the non-ferrous metals industry, with emerging demands from sectors like commercial aerospace, Beidou applications, and new energy storage significantly increasing the demand for high-performance non-ferrous metals [5][7]. - The rapid growth of industries such as new energy vehicles, photovoltaics, and wind power is expected to amplify the demand for metals like copper, aluminum, lithium, and cobalt [5][7]. - The government's focus on expanding domestic demand and promoting green low-carbon development presents new opportunities for the industry, particularly for basic metals like copper and aluminum [8][9]. - The report highlights the importance of the "Belt and Road" initiative in enhancing international cooperation and optimizing the supply chain for non-ferrous metal enterprises [9]. - The digital transformation of the industry, aided by AI and other technologies, is expected to improve efficiency and reduce costs across various stages from mineral exploration to market monitoring [9]. Summary by Sections Government Work Report Overview - The government work report outlines the overall requirements and policy directions for economic and social development in 2025, emphasizing the need for high-quality development in the non-ferrous metals sector [6]. Emerging Industry Trends - The report identifies that new industries are emerging, which will drive the demand for high-performance non-ferrous metals, with significant growth expected in the use of copper and aluminum in new energy sectors [7][8]. Domestic Demand and Green Development - The government's strategy to expand domestic demand is expected to boost the demand for non-ferrous metals, particularly in infrastructure, real estate, and automotive sectors [8][9]. International Cooperation and Market Expansion - The "Belt and Road" initiative is seen as a key factor in enabling non-ferrous metal companies to expand internationally and secure more resources [9]. Digital Transformation - The report discusses the potential of AI and digital technologies to enhance the quality and efficiency of the non-ferrous metals industry [9].