宏 观 研 究 宏 观 研 究 [Table_Title] [Table_Author] 分析师： 杜征征 执业证书编号：S1380511090001 联系电话：010-88300843 邮箱：duzhengzheng@gkzq.com.cn 工业增加值 资料来源：Wind，国开证券研究与发展部 -32 -24 -16 -8 0 8 16 24 32 40 48 56 64 2017-102018-042018-102019-042019-102020-042020-102021-042021-102022-042022-102023-042023-102024-042024-10 % 工业增加值:当月同比 资料来源：Wind，国开证券研究与发展部 -36 -24 -12 0 12 24 36 2018-062018-102019-022019-062019-102020-022020-062020-102021-022021-062021-102022-022022-062022-102023-022023-062023-102024-022024-062024-10 %社会消费品零售总额:当月同比 [T相 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Recommended" investment rating to the company [3][6]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 14.604 billion yuan for Q3 2024, a year-on-year decline of 8.06%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.296 billion yuan, down 34.18% year-on-year. In Q3 2024 alone, revenue was 3.908 billion yuan, a decrease of 37.03%, with a net profit of -203 million yuan, a decline of 122.97% year-on-year, slightly below market expectations [6][10]. - The company achieved positive cash flow, with operating cash inflow of 3.017 billion yuan, turning from negative to positive due to increased sales collections and reduced raw material purchases. However, a provision for asset impairment of 113 million yuan impacted profits [6][10]. - The gross margin for Q3 was 5.97%, down 18.55 percentage points quarter-on-quarter and 20.48 percentage points year-on-year, indicating pressure on profitability due to a significant drop in photovoltaic glass prices caused by supply-demand mismatches [6][10]. - The company is experiencing growth in cold repair scale, with over 10,000 tons of production capacity being cold repaired in the industry. The future progress of domestic and overseas projects will depend on market conditions [11][6]. - The report forecasts net profits for 2024-2026 to be 1.163 billion, 2.040 billion, and 2.868 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding earnings per share (EPS) of 0.50, 0.87, and 1.22 yuan. The price-to-earnings (PE) ratios are projected to be 54.56, 31.12, and 22.13 times, respectively, based on the closing price of 27.09 yuan on October 30, 2024 [6][8][11]. Financial Summary - For 2023A, the company reported a revenue of 21.524 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 39.21%. The projected revenue for 2024E is 18.977 billion yuan, reflecting a decline of 11.83% [8][15]. - The operating profit for 2023A was 2.892 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 41.58%. The forecast for 2024E is 1.448 billion yuan, indicating a significant drop of 49.91% [8][15]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2023A was 2.760 billion yuan, up 34.22% year-on-year, while the forecast for 2024E is 1.163 billion yuan, a decrease of 57.84% [8][15].

、 、 、 、 、 行 业 业 研 究 宏 观 研 究 和 9月出口数据： 光伏延续下滑，逆变器季节性回调 分析师 | --- | --- | |-------------------------------------------------------|----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

[分Ta析bl师e_：Author] 孟业雄 执业证书编号：S1380523040001 联系电话：010-88300920 邮箱：mengyexiong@gkzq.com.cn 证 券 研 究报 | --- | --- | |---------------------------------|-------| | [公Ta司bl 评e_级 Rank] | | | 当前价格： | | | 合理价格： | | | 上次评级： | | | 本次评级： | | | [公Ta司 bl基e_本Ba 数se据 Info] | | | 总股本（亿股）： | | | 流通股本（亿股）： | | | 流通 A 股市值（亿元）： | | | 每股净资产（元）： | | | 资产负债率（%）： | | [明Ta泰bl铝e_业Pic近Q一uo年te]股价走势 2024 年前三季度，公司实现营业收入 236.55 亿元，同比增长 21.59％；实现归母净利 14.11 亿元，同比增长 21.58%。2024 年 三季度，公司实现营业收入 83.41 亿元，同比增长 22.37%，环比 增长 2.61%；归母净利润 3.41 亿元，同比 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for future performance [1]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 106.31 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 3.62%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.73 billion yuan, up 5.97% year-on-year [1]. - In Q3 2024, the company reported a revenue of 34.80 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.96%, but a quarter-on-quarter decline of 10.29%. The net profit for the same period was 549 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 4.92% but a significant quarter-on-quarter drop of 49.42% [1]. - The decline in revenue and net profit in Q3 is attributed to falling electrolytic copper prices, which compressed revenue and gross profit margins, with a gross margin of 5.61%, down 7.41 percentage points from the previous year [1]. - The company is expected to see revenue growth in the coming years, with projected revenues of 150.09 billion yuan, 159.22 billion yuan, and 159.99 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, alongside net profits of 4.73 billion yuan, 4.83 billion yuan, and 4.95 billion yuan [1][3]. Financial Summary - The average price of electrolytic copper in the Shanghai non-ferrous market for the first three quarters of 2024 was 69,200 yuan, 79,300 yuan, and 75,200 yuan per ton, with year-on-year increases of 1.17%, 17.48%, and 8.99% respectively [1]. - The average spot refining charges (TC) for copper smelters were 65.08, 54.66, and 48.58 USD per thousand tons, showing a quarter-on-quarter decline of 15.99%, 16.01%, and 11.12% [1]. - The company’s copper foil production capacity reached 55,000 tons by the end of June 2024, with ongoing projects expected to enhance production capacity to 80,000 tons annually, improving the business structure [1]. - The company anticipates an annual output of approximately 250,000 tons of copper metal from the second phase of the Mirador copper mine project, expected to be completed by June 2025, which will further increase raw material self-sufficiency [1]. Valuation Metrics - The projected price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 9.19, 8.95, and 8.72 respectively, indicating a favorable valuation compared to historical performance [1][3].

、 、 、 、 、 行 业 业 研 究 宏 观 研 究 行 业 研 究 和 分布式光伏意见稿发布，长期利好行业发展 分析师 梁晨 执业证书编号：S1380518120001 联系电话：010-88300853 邮箱：liangchen@gkzq.com.cn 光伏指数与沪深 300 走势比较 证 券 研 究 报 告 -40.00% -20.00% 0.00% 光伏指数 沪深300 资料来源：WIND，国开证券研究与发展部 内容摘要： 2024 年 10 月 14 日 事件：近日，国家能源局发布《分布式光伏发电开发建设 管理办法（征求意见稿）》（以下简称《办法》），主要包括 行业管理、备案管理、建设管理、电网接入、运行管理等 内容，文件用于替代2013年发布的《分布式光伏发电项目 管理暂行办法》。具体内容如下： 分类和上网模式：大型工商业项目（6MW以上）要求全部自 用、不允许上网。 备案要求：按照"谁投资、谁备案"的原则确定备案主体。 电网接入：要确保新建的分布式光伏发电项目实现"可观、 可测、可调、可控"。 参与电力市场：分布式光伏发电项目可以独立或通过微电 网、源网荷储一体化、虚拟电厂聚合等方式公平参与电 ...

行 [Table_Author] 北 研 究 [分Ta析b师le_：Author] 孟业雄 执业证书编号：S1380523040001 证 联系电话：010-88300920 券 邮箱：mengyexiong@gkzq.com.cn 研 究 报 [有Ta色b金le_属P（icQ申u万ot）e]与上证指数走势图 2024年前三季度，贵金属、工业金属、小金属和金属新材料板块 保持营业收入和归母净利润同比双增态势，能源金属板块营业收 入和净利润同比双降。有色金属板块整体股价（总市值加权平均， 下同）涨幅为26.21%，排在第6位，其内部各板块表现分化。 [行Ta业b评le_级IndustryRank] 行 业 [相Ta关bl报e_告Report] 重 大事 件 点 评 报 告 [内Ta容ble提_S要um：mary] 2024年前三季度，有色金属（申万）板块共有136只成份股，合 计营业收入为25652.31亿元，同比增长2.49%，合计归母净利润 为1061.72亿元，同比下降0.30%。 2024年三季度，有色金属板块合计营业收入为8671.83亿元，同 比增长4.08%，环比下降6.15%，归母净利润为367 ...

固 定 收 益 宏 观 研 究 [Table_Title] 商业银行大幅增配地方债 ——9 月债券托管数据点评 [Table_Date] 2024 年 10 月 28 日 [Table_Author] 固定收益分析师： 岳安时 执业证书编号：S1380513070002 联系电话：010-88300844 邮箱：yueanshi@gkzq.com.cn 证 券 研 究 报 告 [近期研究 Table_Report 报告 ] 内容提要： 近日中债登和上清所公布了2024年9月的债券托管情况，9月合计托 管量为153.09万亿元，较8月净增20495.7亿元。其中，中债登托管量 111.61万亿元，净增12671.49亿元；上清所托管量为41.47万亿元， 净增7824.21亿元。 分券种托管方面。9月国债托管量为32.74万亿元，环比净增3914.5亿 元；地方政府债托管量为44.37万亿元，环比净增11747.91亿元；政 策金融债托管量为23.36万亿元，环比净增438.8亿元；同业存单托管 量为17.84万亿元，环比净增4992.16亿元；企业债托管量为20478.7 亿元，环比净减558.64亿元。 分 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the company, consistent with the previous rating [1][7]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 22.856 billion yuan for the first nine months of 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 8.25%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.321 billion yuan, up 59.82% year-on-year [2]. - In Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 6.796 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 11.81%, and a net profit of 337 million yuan, reflecting a growth of 58.74% year-on-year [2]. - The overall gross margin improved by 2.84 percentage points to 23.48% due to effective cost reduction and product structure optimization [3]. - The net profit margin increased by 2 percentage points to 5.94%, indicating enhanced profitability [3]. Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, the company is projected to achieve revenues of 30.506 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 10.85%, and a net profit of 1.566 billion yuan, reflecting an 80.53% increase [8]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is estimated at 0.79 yuan, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 15.25, 11.59, and 9.56 for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [7][9]. - The company’s total assets are expected to reach 50.430 billion yuan by 2024, with total liabilities of 31.070 billion yuan [8]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is actively responding to the differentiated demand in the construction machinery industry, enhancing its market competitiveness through a "three-full" strategy: comprehensive solutions, comprehensive intelligence, and comprehensive internationalization [4]. - The company has developed a diverse product matrix for electric machinery, with 11 product lines, and has maintained a leading market share in electric loaders since 2021 [5]. - The electricization rate for major enterprises in the industry reached 10.18% in the first nine months of 2024, an increase of 6.72 percentage points compared to the previous year [5].

、 、 、 、 、 行 业 业 研 究 宏 观 研 究 和 电力辅助服务征求意见发布，看好新型主体发展 行 业 研 究 分析师 梁晨 执业证书编号：S1380518120001 联系电话：010-88300853 邮箱：liangchen@gkzq.com.cn 光伏指数与沪深 300 走势比较 证 券 研 究 报 告 -40.00% -20.00% 0.00% 光伏指数 沪深300 资料来源：WIND，国开证券研究与发展部 行 业 重 大 事 件 点 评 报 告 内容摘要： 2024 年 10 月 14 日 事件：近日，国家能源局发布《电力辅助服务市场基本规 则（征求意见稿）》（以下简称《规则》）。此次《规则》是 建设完善新型电力市场的重要一环，要求按照"谁提供、 谁获利，谁受益、谁承担"原则，优化和健全各类辅助服 务价格形成机制以及费用传导机制。具体内容如下： 成员：包括经营主体、电网企业和市场运营机构等。其中， 经营主体主要包括火电、水电、储能、虚拟电厂等。 辅助服务品种：分为有功控制服务（调峰服务、调频服务、 备用服务、爬坡服务等）、无功平衡服务（电压控制服务）、 事故处置类服务（黑启动、转动惯量、切 ...