Overall Situation - The overall performance of A-shares remains under pressure, with a year-on-year revenue growth rate of -0.91% for Q3 2024, continuing a downward trend and marking two consecutive quarters of negative growth since H1 2024 [52][58] - The net profit attributable to shareholders of all A-shares also shows a downward trend, with a year-on-year growth rate of -0.48% for Q3 2024, indicating six consecutive quarters of negative growth [52][58] - The overall return on equity (ROE) for A-shares is at a low level, with a TTM ROE of 8.14% as of Q3 2024, slightly recovering from 8.03% in H1 2024, but still declining when excluding financial and oil companies [54][56] Major Index Analysis - Core indices in A-shares maintain relative resilience, but most broad indices show declining revenue growth. For instance, the ChiNext 50 index has experienced significant negative revenue growth for three consecutive reporting periods [62][64] - The net profit growth of major core asset indices such as the Shanghai Composite and CSI 300 remains positive, but the growth rate is at historically low levels [62][64] Industry Performance Analysis - Among 13 industries, only a few have shown positive growth in revenue and net profit, with electronics and non-banking sectors performing relatively well [5][6] - The overall ROE for most consumer industries shows a slowdown in growth, while some upstream cyclical industries exhibit marginal improvements [5][6] Different Enterprise Nature Analysis - State-owned enterprises (SOEs) have shown a recovery in net profit growth, with a year-on-year increase of over 10% in Q3 2024, while local state-owned and private enterprises continue to experience negative growth [96][93] - The revenue growth rate for private enterprises remains positive but is at a historically low level as of 2024 [93][96] Style Performance and Valuation Analysis - Different style indices show a general trend of negative revenue growth in Q3 2024, with large-cap value indices performing relatively better compared to small-cap indices [73][75] - The return on equity (ROE) for large-cap growth indices has shown marginal improvement entering 2024, while small-cap growth indices continue to experience negative growth [75][82] Market Trends and Valuation Levels - The A-share market has experienced a significant rebound in late September 2024, driven by policy changes and improved market sentiment, with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking through the 3300-point mark [88][89] - As of November 20, 2024, the price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for several indices have exceeded the 50% median of the past decade, indicating a rise in valuation levels despite slowing earnings growth [89][92]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" [5] Core Insights - The density of industrial robots in China has significantly increased, reaching 470 units per 10,000 people in 2023, surpassing Germany and Japan, and ranking third globally [1][26] - In 2023, China accounted for 51% of the global new installations of industrial robots, with 276,000 units installed, supported by the country's large manufacturing base and the demand for upgrading labor-intensive industries [1][26] - The production of industrial robots in China reached a historical high, with October 2024 production at 50,900 units, a year-on-year increase of 33.4% [2][27] - The robot sector is currently facing short-term performance pressure due to supply-demand imbalances, but it holds strong long-term growth potential driven by industrial upgrades and technological advancements [3][28] Summary by Sections Industry Dynamics - The industrial robot density in China has doubled over the past four years, reflecting the rapid adoption of automation technologies in manufacturing [34] - The demand for industrial robots is showing differentiation across sectors, with electronics, home appliances, and metal products performing well, while lithium battery and photovoltaic sectors are experiencing weaker demand [2][27] Key Data Tracking - In the first three quarters of 2024, the SW robot sector reported total revenue of 22.123 billion yuan, a decrease of 2.47% year-on-year, and a net profit of 770 million yuan, down 34.36% year-on-year [3][28] - The market share of domestic manufacturers in the robot sector increased by 4.5 percentage points to 51.6% in the same period, although there remains a significant gap in market penetration for high-end products compared to foreign manufacturers [3][28]

Economic Growth Indicators - In October, industrial added value increased by 5.3% year-on-year, slightly below the expected 5.6% and up from the previous 5.4%[4] - Social retail sales in October grew by 4.8% year-on-year, exceeding the expected 3.9% and up from 3.2% previously[4] - Fixed asset investment from January to October saw a cumulative year-on-year growth of 3.4%, matching the previous period but slightly below the expected 3.5%[4] Production and Consumption Trends - The manufacturing sector showed resilience, with high-tech manufacturing value added increasing by 9.4%, outperforming overall industrial growth by 4.1 percentage points[8] - Service sector production index rose by 6.3% year-on-year in October, marking the fastest growth this year[8] - Consumer spending was bolstered by the National Day holiday, with domestic travel and cultural consumption increasing by 5.9% and 6.3% respectively[11] Investment Insights - Infrastructure investment rebounded, with broad and narrow infrastructure investments growing by 9.4% and 4.3% year-on-year respectively from January to October[12] - Real estate investment declined by 10.3% year-on-year, with a notable drop in new construction and completion areas[13] - Manufacturing investment rose by 9.3% year-on-year, indicating strong growth in high-tech sectors, particularly aerospace and equipment manufacturing[15] Risks and Future Outlook - Potential risks include unexpected central bank adjustments, inflation, trade tensions, and geopolitical uncertainties, which could impact economic recovery[5] - Upcoming central economic work conferences and policy deployments will be crucial for future growth stabilization[5]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Recommended" investment rating to the company [3][6]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 14.604 billion yuan for Q3 2024, a year-on-year decline of 8.06%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.296 billion yuan, down 34.18% year-on-year. In Q3 2024 alone, revenue was 3.908 billion yuan, a decrease of 37.03%, with a net profit of -203 million yuan, a decline of 122.97% year-on-year, slightly below market expectations [6][10]. - The company achieved positive cash flow, with operating cash inflow of 3.017 billion yuan, turning from negative to positive due to increased sales collections and reduced raw material purchases. However, a provision for asset impairment of 113 million yuan impacted profits [6][10]. - The gross margin for Q3 was 5.97%, down 18.55 percentage points quarter-on-quarter and 20.48 percentage points year-on-year, indicating pressure on profitability due to a significant drop in photovoltaic glass prices caused by supply-demand mismatches [6][10]. - The company is experiencing growth in cold repair scale, with over 10,000 tons of production capacity being cold repaired in the industry. The future progress of domestic and overseas projects will depend on market conditions [11][6]. - The report forecasts net profits for 2024-2026 to be 1.163 billion, 2.040 billion, and 2.868 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding earnings per share (EPS) of 0.50, 0.87, and 1.22 yuan. The price-to-earnings (PE) ratios are projected to be 54.56, 31.12, and 22.13 times, respectively, based on the closing price of 27.09 yuan on October 30, 2024 [6][8][11]. Financial Summary - For 2023A, the company reported a revenue of 21.524 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 39.21%. The projected revenue for 2024E is 18.977 billion yuan, reflecting a decline of 11.83% [8][15]. - The operating profit for 2023A was 2.892 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 41.58%. The forecast for 2024E is 1.448 billion yuan, indicating a significant drop of 49.91% [8][15]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2023A was 2.760 billion yuan, up 34.22% year-on-year, while the forecast for 2024E is 1.163 billion yuan, a decrease of 57.84% [8][15].

Export Data Summary - In September 2024, the export value of domestic photovoltaic modules and batteries was $2.014 billion, down 40.2% year-on-year and 17.3% month-on-month[1] - The export quantity was 537 million units, up 25.8% year-on-year but down 25.8% month-on-month[1] - From January to September 2024, the cumulative export value reached $24.681 billion, a decrease of 31.7% year-on-year, with an export quantity of 5.481 billion units, up 27.4% year-on-year[1] Regional Performance - In September, exports to Europe were $758 million, down 20.18% month-on-month, attributed to slow installation speeds and unclear stimulus policies[3] - Exports to Asia were $797 million, down 17.85% month-on-month, influenced by increased inventory in Pakistan and port transport issues in India[3] - Exports to Latin America were $290 million, down 4.40% month-on-month, while exports to Africa were $103 million, down 14.21% month-on-month[3] Inverter Export Data - In September 2024, the export value of inverters was $679 million, up 5.04% year-on-year but down 21.21% month-on-month[1] - The export quantity was 4.296 million units, up 10.82% year-on-year but down 18.76% month-on-month[1] - From January to September 2024, the cumulative export value of inverters was $6.331 billion, down 23.23% year-on-year, with an export quantity of 39.997 million units, down 2.02% year-on-year[1] Market Outlook - The fourth quarter is expected to be a traditional off-season for Europe, with demand in Asia also affected by India and Pakistan[1] - Only the Middle East is showing positive demand trends, leading to an overall pessimistic outlook for photovoltaic exports in Q4[1] - For inverters, seasonal factors are expected to diminish, and emerging markets may see improved export demand in Q4[1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for future performance [2]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 23.655 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 21.59%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.411 billion yuan, also up by 21.58% year-on-year [2]. - In Q3 2024, the company reported a revenue of 8.341 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.37%, but a net profit of 341 million yuan, which showed a decline of 4.65% year-on-year and a significant drop of 51.77% quarter-on-quarter [2]. - The company has been expanding its production capacity for recycled aluminum, currently holding over 1 million tons of capacity, which is expected to enhance profitability as the new project is completed [2]. - The report forecasts revenues for 2024, 2025, and 2026 to be 34.806 billion, 37.590 billion, and 41.350 billion yuan respectively, with net profits projected at 1.767 billion, 1.984 billion, and 2.248 billion yuan, corresponding to P/E ratios of 9.11, 8.08, and 7.14 [5][6]. Financial Summary - For 2023, the company reported a revenue of 26.442 billion yuan, with a decline of 4.82% year-on-year. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.347 billion yuan, down by 15.71% [5]. - The company’s gross margin for Q3 2024 was 9.39%, a decrease of 1.45 percentage points compared to the same period last year, primarily due to falling aluminum prices and increased operating expenses [2]. - R&D expenses for the first three quarters of 2024 reached 1.270 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 27.76% [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for future performance [1]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 106.31 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 3.62%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.73 billion yuan, up 5.97% year-on-year [1]. - In Q3 2024, the company reported a revenue of 34.80 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.96%, but a quarter-on-quarter decline of 10.29%. The net profit for the same period was 549 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 4.92% but a significant quarter-on-quarter drop of 49.42% [1]. - The decline in revenue and net profit in Q3 is attributed to falling electrolytic copper prices, which compressed revenue and gross profit margins, with a gross margin of 5.61%, down 7.41 percentage points from the previous year [1]. - The company is expected to see revenue growth in the coming years, with projected revenues of 150.09 billion yuan, 159.22 billion yuan, and 159.99 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, alongside net profits of 4.73 billion yuan, 4.83 billion yuan, and 4.95 billion yuan [1][3]. Financial Summary - The average price of electrolytic copper in the Shanghai non-ferrous market for the first three quarters of 2024 was 69,200 yuan, 79,300 yuan, and 75,200 yuan per ton, with year-on-year increases of 1.17%, 17.48%, and 8.99% respectively [1]. - The average spot refining charges (TC) for copper smelters were 65.08, 54.66, and 48.58 USD per thousand tons, showing a quarter-on-quarter decline of 15.99%, 16.01%, and 11.12% [1]. - The company’s copper foil production capacity reached 55,000 tons by the end of June 2024, with ongoing projects expected to enhance production capacity to 80,000 tons annually, improving the business structure [1]. - The company anticipates an annual output of approximately 250,000 tons of copper metal from the second phase of the Mirador copper mine project, expected to be completed by June 2025, which will further increase raw material self-sufficiency [1]. Valuation Metrics - The projected price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 9.19, 8.95, and 8.72 respectively, indicating a favorable valuation compared to historical performance [1][3].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the distributed photovoltaic (PV) industry, indicating that the new management measures will promote healthy development in the sector [4][5]. Core Insights - The recent release of the "Management Measures for the Development and Construction of Distributed Photovoltaic Power Generation (Draft for Comments)" by the National Energy Administration is expected to have significant long-term benefits for the industry [4][5]. - The new regulations classify large commercial projects (over 6MW) as requiring full self-consumption, which may temporarily impact distributed installations but is anticipated to accelerate industry clearing and alleviate grid connection pressures in the long run [5][9]. - The measures emphasize the need for new distributed PV projects to achieve "observable, measurable, adjustable, and controllable" standards for grid access, raising the bar for the digital and intelligent development of distributed PV systems [5][9]. - Distributed PV projects will be allowed to participate in electricity market transactions, but they will also bear more associated costs, which may lead to short-term revenue declines in certain regions [5][9]. Summary by Sections Management and Registration - The new measures replace the 2013 interim management regulations and introduce a principle of "who invests, who registers" for project registration [4][7]. - Non-natural person investment projects cannot register under a natural person's name, ensuring accountability and legal responsibility for project operation and maintenance [7]. Grid Access and Market Participation - New distributed PV projects must meet specific criteria to enhance grid capacity and control capabilities [8]. - The measures allow for independent participation in electricity markets through various integration methods, including microgrids and virtual power plants [8]. Cost Sharing and Economic Implications - Both power generation and consumption parties must share government funds and additional costs when engaging in dedicated power supply agreements [8]. - Natural person household distributed PV systems are exempt from certain government fees, which may enhance their economic viability [8]. Investment Recommendations - The report encourages attention to sectors such as energy storage, household PV, and commercial energy storage operators, highlighting specific companies like Sungrow Power Supply, Shuneng Electric, Chint Electric, and Xinneng Technology as potential investment opportunities [5][9].

行 [Table_Author] 北 研 究 [分Ta析b师le_：Author] 孟业雄 执业证书编号：S1380523040001 证 联系电话：010-88300920 券 邮箱：mengyexiong@gkzq.com.cn 研 究 报 [有Ta色b金le_属P（icQ申u万ot）e]与上证指数走势图 2024年前三季度，贵金属、工业金属、小金属和金属新材料板块 保持营业收入和归母净利润同比双增态势，能源金属板块营业收 入和净利润同比双降。有色金属板块整体股价（总市值加权平均， 下同）涨幅为26.21%，排在第6位，其内部各板块表现分化。 [行Ta业b评le_级IndustryRank] 行 业 [相Ta关bl报e_告Report] 重 大事 件 点 评 报 告 [内Ta容ble提_S要um：mary] 2024年前三季度，有色金属（申万）板块共有136只成份股，合 计营业收入为25652.31亿元，同比增长2.49%，合计归母净利润 为1061.72亿元，同比下降0.30%。 2024年三季度，有色金属板块合计营业收入为8671.83亿元，同 比增长4.08%，环比下降6.15%，归母净利润为367 ...

Overall Bond Custody Situation - In September 2024, the total bond custody amount reached 153.09 trillion yuan, with a net increase of 20,495.7 billion yuan compared to August[2] - The custody amount of China Central Depository & Clearing Co., Ltd. (CCDC) was 111.61 trillion yuan, net increasing by 12,671.49 billion yuan; Shanghai Clearing House (SCH) had a custody amount of 41.47 trillion yuan, net increasing by 7,824.21 billion yuan[2] Bond Type Analysis - The custody amount of government bonds in September was 32.74 trillion yuan, with a net increase of 3,914.5 billion yuan; the issuance scale was 13,615.3 billion yuan, decreasing by 2,317.4 billion yuan month-on-month but increasing by 1,792.7 billion yuan year-on-year[7] - The custody amount of local government bonds was 44.37 trillion yuan, net increasing by 11,747.91 billion yuan, with an issuance scale of 12,843.23 billion yuan, increasing by 847 billion yuan month-on-month and 5,092.23 billion yuan year-on-year[9] - Policy financial bonds had a custody amount of 23.36 trillion yuan, net increasing by 438.8 billion yuan, with an issuance of 4,550 billion yuan, decreasing by 1,060 billion yuan month-on-month but increasing by 745 billion yuan year-on-year[11] Institutional Investment Trends - Commercial banks significantly increased their allocation to local bonds, with an increase of 9,180.74 billion yuan in local bonds and a reduction of 489.73 billion yuan in policy financial bonds[14] - Non-bank institutions maintained stable allocations, with securities firms, insurance companies, and broad-based funds mainly increasing their holdings in interest rate bonds[14] - Foreign institutions reduced their holdings, with a notable decrease of 1,131.88 billion yuan in government bonds and a reduction of 151.07 billion yuan in interbank certificates of deposit[18]