宏 观 研 究 [Table_Author] 分析师： 分析师： 崔国涛 邓垚 执业证书编号： S1380513070003 联系电话：010-51789093 邮箱： cuiguotao@gkzq.com.cn 执业证书编号：S1380519040001 联系电话：010-88300849 邮箱： dengyao@gkzq.com.cn 研究助理： 邓垚 执业证书编号： S1380116110007 联系电话：010-51789074 邮箱： dengyao@gkzq.com.cn 电子（申万）与沪深 300 走势图 -29% -19% -9% 1% 11% 21% 31% 23/12 24/02 24/05 24/07 24/09 24/12 电子(申万) 沪深300 资料来源：Wind，国开证券研究与发展部 行业评级 中性 [Table_Report] 相关报告 5G 叠加国产替代 半导体设备加速成长—— 2020 年电子行业策略报告 景气与政策共振 半导体国产化空间广阔 ——2021 年电子行业策略报告 短期扰动不改长期成长 关注设备及功率半 导体——2022 年一季度半导体行业分析与展 望 关注汽车 ...

宏 观 研 究 [Table_Author] 分析师： 分析师： 崔国涛 邓垚 执业证书编号： S1380513070003 联系电话：010-51789093 邮箱： cuiguotao@gkzq.com.cn 执业证书编号：S1380519040001 联系电话：010-88300849 邮箱： dengyao@gkzq.com.cn 研究助理： 电子（申万）与沪深 300 走势图 邓垚 执业证书编号： S1380116110007 联系电话：010-51789074 邮箱： dengyao@gkzq.com.cn -28.00% -18.00% -8.00% 2.00% 12.00% 22.00% 32.00% 23/12 24/02 24/05 24/07 24/09 24/12 电子(申万) 沪深300 资料来源：Wind，国开证券研究与发展部 行业评级 中性 [Table_Report] 相关报告 行 业 重 大 事 件 点 评 报 告 行 业 研 究 [Table_RepTitle] 政治局会议强调提振消费 电子行业需求端有望持续改善 [Table_Date] 2024 年 12 月 10 日 ...

宏 观 研 究 [Table_MainProfit] [Table_Author] 分析师： 分析师： 崔国涛 邓垚 执业证书编号： S1380513070003 联系电话：010-51789093 邮箱： cuiguotao@gkzq.com.cn 执业证书编号：S1380519040001 联系电话：010-88300849 邮箱： dengyao@gkzq.com.cn 研究助理： 证 券 研 究 报 告 电子（申万）与沪深 走势图 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-----------------------|----------------|----------------|---------------------|------------------------|-------|-------| | 邓 垚 | | | 300 | | | | | 执业证书编号： 32.00% | | | | S1380116110007 | | | | 22.00% | | | | | | | | 联系电话： 12.00% | | 010-5178907 ...

Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a positive outlook on the securities industry, driven by policy support and improving market conditions [3][4] Core Views - The securities sector is expected to see comprehensive improvement across all business lines in 2025, with wealth management, investment banking, and proprietary trading being key growth areas [4][5] - Policy reforms, including the new "National Nine Articles," aim to enhance the capital market's role in serving national strategies and economic development [4][63] - Industry consolidation is accelerating, with mergers and acquisitions expected to remain active in 2025, particularly among leading and regional securities firms [4][80] Market Review - The securities sector outperformed the broader market in 2024, with the non-bank financial sector leading the gains, driven by policy tailwinds and improving investor sentiment [39][42] - Trading activity surged in 2024, with average daily trading volume reaching 1,197.9 billion yuan in October, a 120.38% year-on-year increase [45][46] - Revenue and net profit of listed securities firms declined slightly in the first three quarters of 2024, but showed significant quarter-on-quarter improvement, with proprietary trading being the largest revenue contributor [49][50] Policy Analysis and Outlook - The new "National Nine Articles" emphasize the strategic importance of the capital market, focusing on long-term systemic reforms to enhance market stability and functionality [63][66] - Policies are expected to encourage innovation in securities firms' business models, particularly in wealth management and investment banking, while strengthening regulatory oversight [67][70] - The government is actively promoting the entry of long-term capital into the market, with measures such as tax cuts and reduced financing costs to boost investor confidence [64][65] Industry Competition and Outlook - Performance divergence among securities firms is evident, with leading firms benefiting from investment banking and asset management, while smaller firms rely on proprietary trading for growth [72][73] - Industry concentration is increasing, with the top 5 firms accounting for 40.89% of total revenue and 48.37% of net profit in the first three quarters of 2024 [75][76] - Mergers and acquisitions are expected to accelerate, with leading firms leveraging their capital strength for expansion, while smaller firms focus on regional and niche market opportunities [80][82] Business Trends - Wealth management is becoming a key growth driver, with ETF products and investment advisory services gaining traction as investors seek diversified and low-cost investment options [88][89] - Investment banking is shifting focus towards supporting high-tech and emerging industries, with policy reforms driving demand for specialized and comprehensive financial services [99][108] - Proprietary trading is expected to remain a major revenue source, with regulatory measures ensuring stable and standardized development of the business [4][50]

Investment Rating - The mechanical equipment industry is rated as "outperforming the market" [2][3]. Core Insights - The SW mechanical equipment index has increased by 10.26% to 1593.40 points as of December 3, 2024, underperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index by 4.92 percentage points, ranking 16th among 31 SW first-level industries [2][3]. - The overall rolling price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for the SW mechanical equipment sector is 36.17 times, up 38.99% from the end of 2023, with a valuation premium of 95.42% compared to all A-shares, an increase of 2.13 percentage points from the end of 2023 [2][3]. - Fund allocation to the mechanical equipment industry remains relatively weak, with a low allocation ratio of 1.48% as of Q3 2024, an increase from 0.81% at the end of Q4 2023 [2][3]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Performance and Valuation - The SW mechanical equipment index has shown a mixed performance, with significant increases in sub-sectors such as printing and packaging machinery (32.88%), engineering machinery (27.63%), and rail transit equipment (26.46%) [2][3][45]. - The overall industry performance has been under pressure due to insufficient market demand, with gross profit margins for general and specialized equipment manufacturing at 18.61% and 22.05%, respectively, both down from the previous year [2][3]. 2. Fund Allocation Trends - As of Q3 2024, the total market value of funds heavily invested in the SW mechanical equipment industry is 739.89 billion yuan, with a holding ratio of 2.59% [2][3]. - The allocation to the mechanical equipment sector has decreased, with the low allocation ratio expanding, indicating a reduced interest from funds in this sector [2][3]. 3. Demand and Future Outlook - The mechanical equipment industry is experiencing pressure on overall performance due to a slowdown in new orders and market demand [2][3]. - Future demand is expected to improve marginally due to ongoing infrastructure investments and the transition to new production capabilities, particularly in the engineering machinery and robotics sectors [2][3].

Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the photovoltaic (PV) and energy storage industry, highlighting key investment opportunities and trends for 2025 [2][3] Core Views - The PV industry is at the bottom of its cycle, with global capacity layout being timely [6] - The energy storage industry is experiencing clear growth, with the inverter segment being particularly strong [14] - Four major trends are expected in 2025: 1) significant growth in PV-storage integration projects, 2) the Middle East becoming a key overseas market, 3) BC battery technology entering mass production, and 4) grid-forming energy storage gaining traction [3] Photovoltaic Industry Analysis Industry Bottom and Global Layout - The PV industry is at a profit bottom, with supply and demand expected to improve [7] - Global trade policies are tightening, prompting companies to actively expand capacity in the Middle East and the US [10] - PV demand growth is sluggish, with China's new installations expected to grow by 8%-10% in 2024-2025 [30] - The industry is experiencing a cash loss across the entire supply chain, with capital expenditure fluctuating downward [9] - Global trade tensions, particularly the US anti-dumping and countervailing investigations in Southeast Asia, are impacting PV exports [12] Market Trends and Regional Focus - The Middle East and the US are becoming key regions for PV capacity expansion [13] - The Middle East market, particularly Saudi Arabia, is showing significant growth due to strong policy support [50][111] - US trade policies are driving companies to establish local manufacturing to avoid tariffs [53] Energy Storage Industry Analysis Growth Drivers and Market Trends - Energy storage demand is growing rapidly, driven by renewable energy installations and declining system costs [18] - Independent energy storage is performing well, with grid-side storage dominating the market [71] - The cost of energy storage systems continues to decline, accelerating the construction of new power systems [82] - Global energy storage demand is expected to grow significantly, with China and the US leading the way [93] Inverter Segment - The inverter segment is relatively profitable, with Chinese companies dominating the global market [102] - Global PV inverter shipments increased by 56% in 2023, with Huawei and Sungrow leading the market [102] Key Trends for 2025 PV-Storage Integration - PV-storage integration projects are expected to grow significantly, driven by declining costs and increasing system economics [3][106] Middle East Market - The Middle East is becoming a key overseas market for PV and energy storage, with strong policy support and growing demand [3][110] BC Battery Technology - 2025 is expected to be the first year of mass production for BC battery technology, with companies like LONGi and Aiko leading the way [117][121] Grid-Forming Energy Storage - Grid-forming energy storage is seen as essential for new power systems, with significant growth potential in China and globally [124] Investment Recommendations - Focus on PV-storage integration leaders like Sungrow and Canadian Solar [3] - Invest in global leaders with capacity in the Middle East and the US, such as JinkoSolar and Trina Solar [3] - Consider BC battery leaders like LONGi and Aiko, which are expected to benefit from premium pricing [3]

宏 观 研 究 [Table_MainProfit] [Table_Author] 分析师： 分析师： | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------------------------------|-------------------------------------------|---------------------------|-------------------------------|---------------------------------|-------| | | | | | | | | 崔国涛 邓 垚 | | | | | | | 执业证书编号： 执业证书编号： | | | S1380513070003 S1380519040001 | | | | 联系电话： 联系电话： | | 010-51789093 010-88300849 | | | | | 邮箱： 邮箱： | cuiguotao@gkzq.com.cn dengyao@gkzq.com.cn | | | | | | 研究助理： 邓 垚 | 电子（申万）与沪深 | | 30 ...

[Table_Author] [Tabl有e_色P金icQ属u（ot申e]万）与上证综指走势图 截至2024年11月12日，全球主要国家股市涨跌互现。中国股 市在某些阶段表现较好，三大指数涨幅均超15%。美国股市继 续维持上涨，纳斯达克指数涨超28%，日本股市也继续维持强 势，日经225指数涨幅超15%，德国股市DAX指数涨超10%。韩 国和法国股市今年以来录得负增长，跌幅分别为6.50%和 4.19%。大宗商品方面，黄金继续维持上涨态势，涨超25%。 目前黄金和白银价格处于历史高位，但铂金和钯金价格在今 年均下跌，铂金跌幅为4.46%，钯金跌幅较大为13.83%。2024 年，伦铜和伦铝价格涨幅均在7%左右。原油价格呈现弱势， 跌幅在5%左右。 资料来源：Wind，国开证券研究与发展部 2025年美国通胀预期开始被市场重视。通胀通常会导致生产 成本上升，这可能导致铜矿开采、冶炼和加工等环节的成本 增加。通胀环境下，消费者和企业可能会增加对实物资产（如 铜等金属）的需求，以抵御货币贬值和资产缩水风险。因此， 这些都可能会推高铜需求和价格。当前铜行业市盈率大致在 14倍左右，在中位数和平均值以下徘徊，具备合理的 ...

策 略 研 究 宏 观 研 究 [Table_Author] 分析师： 刘晓溪 执业证书编号：S1380524040001 联系电话：010-88300644 邮箱：liuxiaoxi@gkzq.com.cn [Table_Report] 万得全 A 指数 2024 年内走势 资料来源：Wind，国开证券研究与发展部 | --- | |---------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | | | 整体业绩仍待修复，价值风格有所改善 | | A 股 2022 年报以及 2023 一季报总结 | | 总体渐进恢复，四季度业绩有望进一步改 | | 善 —— A 股 2023 年三季报经营情况分析 消费行业业绩好转但整体需求仍待改善， | | 上游行业接近转向补库周期 —— A 股年报 一季报分析 | [Table_Title] 需求仍待回暖 核心资产指数业绩有望修复 ——A 股三季报分析 [Table_Date] 2024 年 11 月 21 日 [Table_Summary] 内容提要： A 股整体 ...

正 宏 观 研 究 证 券 研 究 报 告 受益于制造业转型升级，我国工业机器人密度持续提升 --机械设备行业周报(11.18—11.22)) [Table_Date] 2024 年 11 月 25 日 受益于制造业转型升级，我国工业机器人密度持续提升。近日，国 际机器人联合会（IFR）发布了2023年全球工业机器人密度数据。 2023年全球工业机器人密度为162台/万人，为2016年（75台/万人） 的2.16倍，再创历史新高。随着第四次工业科技革命的深入推进， 机器人大规模应用驱动社会生产方式发生了深刻变革，全球制造业 格局正经历新一轮重塑。机器人密度指标可以反映制造业自动化程 度，在我国制造业不断转型升级的大背景下，近年来我国工业机器 人密度呈现快速上升的态势，自2017年开始超过全球平均水平， 2023年达到 470台/万人，超越德国、日本位列全球第三位。根据IFR 数据，2023年我国新安装工业机器人数量为27.6万台，全球占比为 51%，我国庞大的制造业体量以及劳动密集型产业升级需求为机器 人技术提供了丰富的应用场景，成为我国连续多年稳居全球最大的 机器人市场的重要支撑。 我国工业机器人产量创新高 ...