Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" [2][58]. Core Insights - The report highlights a marginal improvement in domestic demand for excavators, with a focus on the internationalization of the engineering machinery sector as a long-term opportunity [2][19]. - The export value of engineering machinery is showing positive growth, with a year-on-year increase of 15.3% to $4.678 billion in November 2024, and a 16.3% increase in export value to $4.485 billion [2][20]. - The report indicates a divergence in overseas market demand, with significant growth in exports to Asia, Africa, and South America, while North America and Oceania experienced declines [2][20]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Review and Investment Strategy - The SW machinery equipment index decreased by 1.31% to 1559.61 points, underperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index by 2.67 percentage points [13]. - The engineering machinery index outperformed other sub-sectors, with a year-to-date increase of 19.80% as of December 27, 2024, surpassing the overall industry index by 11.87 percentage points [19][32]. 2. Industry Dynamics - The report notes a sales differentiation in engineering machinery products, with excavators showing a marginal recovery in domestic demand, while other products like cranes and aerial work platforms are still facing weak demand due to declining real estate investment [7][46]. - A series of policies aimed at stabilizing growth have been released, indicating a potential upward trend in infrastructure investment and a stabilization in real estate investment [7][46]. 3. Key Data Tracking - The report provides data indicating that from January to November, the sales of excavators decreased by 5.66% to 90,531 units, while other machinery types like graders and industrial vehicles saw increases of 15.57% and 9.32%, respectively [7][46]. - The report emphasizes the importance of improving product cost-performance through enhanced localization of core components, which is expected to boost the global market share of domestic companies [2][20].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" [2][27]. Core Insights - The mechanical equipment industry is expected to benefit from policy-driven demand improvements, with significant profit growth observed in specialized equipment manufacturing in November 2024, showing a year-on-year increase of 36.7% [2][23]. - The overall profit margins for general and specialized equipment manufacturing have improved, with gross profit margins of 18.72% and 22.23% respectively, and operating income profit margins of 6.87% and 7.39% [2][23]. Summary by Relevant Sections Industry Performance - From January to November 2024, the cumulative profit growth rates for general and specialized equipment manufacturing were -0.1% and -0.9%, respectively, which is better than the overall industrial enterprise level [2][23]. - The profit margin for specialized equipment manufacturing saw a significant recovery of 4.3 percentage points compared to the previous month [2][23]. Economic Context - The overall industrial enterprises' revenue increased by 1.8% year-on-year to 123.48 trillion yuan, with a slight decline in growth rate compared to the previous month [20]. - The actual revenue growth rate, excluding price factors, was 3.98%, indicating a relatively weak market demand [20]. Future Outlook - The report emphasizes the importance of expanding domestic demand as a key strategy for the mechanical equipment industry, with government policies aimed at boosting consumption and investment efficiency [21][25]. - The focus on engineering machinery, robotics, and industrial mother machines is recommended as areas of potential growth [21][25].

Global Market Review - The global stock market has entered a period of low trading activity, but there may still be localized volatility due to geopolitical tensions and upcoming macroeconomic data releases [22][63]. - The Federal Reserve's recent interest rate decision, which included a 25 basis point cut, has led to significant market fluctuations, with the VIX index rising over 70% in a single day [68]. A-Share Market Review - The A-share market experienced a contraction and adjustment, with the Shanghai Composite Index showing a weekly decline of 0.70%. Large-cap stocks outperformed smaller ones during this period [17][11]. - The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission's recent guidelines on state-owned enterprise market value management have positively influenced market sentiment, suggesting potential for a rebound [4][58]. Strategy Insights - The report suggests that the A-share market may experience a phase of adjustment followed by a rebound, driven by the stabilization role of large-cap sectors such as state-owned banks, coal, and infrastructure [4][12]. - The semiconductor sector is expected to continue leading the market, while the military industry is gaining strategic importance amid ongoing geopolitical tensions, presenting opportunities for valuation recovery [4][12]. - Expectations of monetary easing, including potential interest rate cuts, are anticipated to stabilize domestic commodity markets, particularly in the black metals and chemical sectors [4][12]. Industry Performance - Most sectors in the A-share market saw declines, with telecommunications and electronics showing relative strength. The banking sector achieved positive returns, while consumer and real estate sectors faced pressure [27][30]. - The semiconductor, communication equipment, and non-metallic materials sectors led the gains, while consumer-related sub-industries were among the worst performers [27][30]. Market Activity - Approximately 1,200 stocks recorded positive returns, but the median weekly decline for individual stocks was -2.9%, indicating that large-cap stocks dominated performance [30]. - The average daily trading volume in the market was around 1.5 trillion yuan, reflecting a decrease from the previous week, while margin financing balances continued to rise [30][52].

Industry Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Neutral" [20][29] Core Insights - The AI market is reigniting interest in HBM (High Bandwidth Memory), which is expected to drive new growth in the storage sector. The global shipment of AI glasses is projected to increase significantly, with only 1% penetration in 2023 compared to smartphones, indicating substantial growth potential [17][51][52]. - The storage industry is currently facing challenges due to weak demand from consumer electronics, leading to a forecasted revenue decline for major players like Micron. However, HBM demand is expected to grow significantly in the medium to long term due to AI trends [25][26][54]. - The semiconductor sector is highlighted as a key battleground for technological competition, with significant government support for innovation and domestic substitution efforts. This is expected to enhance the industry's growth prospects through mergers and acquisitions [27][68]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The A-share electronic sector saw a weekly increase of 3.55%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 3.69 percentage points, ranking second among 31 primary industries [4][39]. - The semiconductor and component sub-sectors led the weekly gains with increases of 5.40% and 4.62%, respectively [54]. Valuation Insights - As of December 20, 2024, the electronic sector's PE (TTM) stands at 57 times, which is at the 78th percentile of the past decade, indicating a significant valuation premium of 204% relative to the entire A-share market [6][58]. Company Performance - Among 476 stocks in the electronic sector, 288 stocks recorded positive returns, with notable performers including Shengke Communication-U (+29.22%) and Canxin Co. (+28.82%). Conversely, Guanghua Technology (-15.51%) and ST Meixun (-12.72%) faced significant declines [15][16].

Group 1: Financial Data Overview - In November, the total social financing increased by 2.33 trillion yuan, with new RMB loans from financial institutions amounting to 580 billion yuan, both figures falling short of market expectations[2][6] - The year-on-year growth rate of social financing stock remained stable at 7.8%[2][6] - The new credit volume in November was only 580 billion yuan, a decrease of 510 billion yuan year-on-year[19] Group 2: Contributions to Financing - The year-on-year decrease in social financing was 129.2 billion yuan, with significant contributions from corporate bonds and government bonds[3][23] - Corporate bond financing in November saw an increase of 238.1 billion yuan, up 99.3 billion yuan year-on-year[3][23] - Government bonds added 1.3089 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 157.7 billion yuan, largely due to the issuance of approximately 1.1 trillion yuan in replacement bonds[3][25] Group 3: Deposit Trends - In November, M2 decreased by 0.4 percentage points to 7.1%, while M1 increased by 2.4 percentage points to -3.7%[4][11] - Non-bank deposits saw a significant drop, with only 180 billion yuan added, a year-on-year decrease of 1.39 trillion yuan[4][28] - Resident deposits increased by 790 billion yuan, while corporate deposits rose by 740 billion yuan, indicating a shift in deposit dynamics[28] Group 4: Future Outlook - The government bonds are expected to continue supporting social financing due to ongoing debt replacement needs and increased local government bond issuance[25][32] - The recent decline in interest rates may have already priced in expectations for rate cuts in 2025, with potential market volatility anticipated as year-end approaches[20][38] - The impact of recent real estate policies on household loan recovery remains to be observed, as the current leverage space for households is limited[32]

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Neutral" [23][33] Core Insights - The "Doubao" large model has seen explosive growth in usage, with daily token calls increasing from approximately 120 billion in May 2024 to over 4 trillion by December 15, marking a growth of over 33 times in just seven months [2] - The "Doubao" visual understanding model is expected to find widespread applications in education, tourism, and e-commerce, enhancing user experiences and operational efficiencies [3][34] - The global shipment of AI glasses is currently only 1% of that of smartphones, indicating significant growth potential in this segment [5] - The "Doubao" general model pro has improved its comprehensive task processing capability by 32% compared to May, with notable enhancements in various areas such as reasoning (13% increase) and code processing (58% increase) [20] Summary by Sections Industry Events - The "Doubao" model has partnered with 80% of mainstream automotive brands, covering approximately 300 million smart terminal devices, with a 100-fold increase in usage from these devices in just six months [2][5] - The "Doubao" visual understanding model can understand relationships between objects in images and perform complex logical calculations, expanding its application scope [12][14] Market Trends - The AI application market is expected to see a resurgence in hardware segments such as optics, displays, and audio modules, driven by the growth of AI edge products [5] - The "Doubao" model's pricing is significantly lower than the industry average, with a cost of 0.003 yuan per thousand tokens, allowing for the processing of 284 images at 720P for the same price [21]

Group 1: Market Overview - The A-share market experienced fluctuations with a slight rebound followed by a decline, where the Shanghai Composite Index recorded a weekly change of -0.36% [20] - Consumer sectors showed significant strength compared to financial and technology sectors, with notable performance in retail, social services, and media [21] - The average daily trading volume in the market was nearly 20 trillion yuan, indicating sustained trading activity [24] Group 2: Global Market Insights - Central banks in Europe, Switzerland, and Canada lowered key interest rates, with the European Central Bank reducing rates by 25 basis points [55] - The U.S. stock market showed mixed results, with the Dow Jones experiencing a seven-day decline while the Nasdaq reached new highs [55] - Global geopolitical tensions and political instability in certain countries have impacted market sentiment [61] Group 3: Strategic Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of "expectation management" and "market capitalization management" in stabilizing market operations, suggesting a potential positive feedback loop for the stock market [5][60] - The Central Economic Work Conference highlighted the need for proactive fiscal and monetary policies, aiming to enhance market stability and investor confidence [40] - The anticipated release of expectation management effectiveness could lead to a short-term upward trend in the A-share market, particularly in financial stocks [62]

宏 观 研 究 宏 观 研 究 [Table_Title] [Table_Author] 分析师： 杜征征 执业证书编号：S1380511090001 联系电话：010-88300843 邮箱：duzhengzheng@gkzq.com.cn 工业增加值 资料来源：Wind，国开证券研究与发展部 -32 -24 -16 -8 0 8 16 24 32 40 48 56 64 2017-112018-052018-112019-052019-112020-052020-112021-052021-112022-052022-112023-052023-112024-052024-11 %工业增加值:当月同比 证 券 研 究 报 告 | --- | --- | |-------------------------------------|---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | 消费 | | ...

宏 观 研 究 行 业 研 究 [Table_Author] 分析师： 分析师： 崔国涛 邓垚 执业证书编号： S1380513070003 联系电话：010-51789093 邮箱： cuiguotao@gkzq.com.cn 执业证书编号：S1380519040001 联系电话：010-88300849 邮箱： dengyao@gkzq.com.cn 证 券 研 究 报 告 研究助理： 半导体（申万）与沪深 300 走势图 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-----------------------|--------|--------|-------|-------|------------------------|----------|-------|-------| | 邓 垚 | | | | | | | | | | 执业证书编号： 29.00% | | | | | S1380116110007 | | | | | 联系电话： 19.00% | | | | | 010-51789074 | | | | | 邮箱： 9. ...

正 宏 观 研 究 证 券 研 究 报 告 中央经济工作会议召开，科技创新引领新质生产力发展 --机械设备行业周报(12.9—12.13) [Table_Date] 2024 年 12 月 16 日 ]正文摘要： 证 券 研 究 报 告 邮箱：cuiguotao@gkzq.com.cn | --- | --- | |------------------------------------------------------------------------|--------------------------| | | | | 近一年 [Table_PicQuote] SW 机械设备与沪深 300 20% 30% | 指数相对涨跌幅 | | -10% 0% 10% | | | -30% -20% Dec-23 Feb-24 Apr-24 Jun-24 Aug-24 机械设备 (申万) | Oct-24 Dec-24 沪深 300 | | | | | 数据来源： Wind | | | | | | [Table_ 行业评级 IndustryRank] | | | 强于大市 | | [相关报告 Table_Rep ...