行 业 研 究 证 券 研 究 报 [Ta刚bl果e_（R金e）p暂Ti停tle出]口四个月 钴价短期或获支撑走强 [Table_Title] ——有色金属行业点评报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 2 月 26 日 孟业雄 [内Ta容ble摘_S要ummary] [有Ta色b金le_属P（icQ中u信ot）e]与上证综指走势图 行业重大事件点评报告 2月24日，刚果（金）相关部门宣布了一项重大决策：为应对全球钴市 场出现的供应过剩问题，该国将钴出口暂停四个月。当日，刚果（金） 战略矿产市场监管控制局发表声明，透露刚果总理与矿业部长已共同签 署法令，授权监管机构在必要时采取临时禁止出口等措施，确保市场稳 定不受干扰。此措施自2月22日起正式施行。声明还指出，政府计划在 措施实施三个月后进行全面评估，并依据评估结果考虑是否调整或解除 当前的出口暂停状态。 告 行 业 重 大 事 件 点 中性 [相Ta关bl报e_告Report] 报 告 [分Ta析b师le_：Author] 联系电话：010-88300920 [Table_Author] 执业证书编号：S1380523040001 邮箱：mengye ...

行 业 研 究 证 券 研 究 报 [Ta刚bl果e_（R金e）p暂Ti停tle出]口四个月 钴价短期或获支撑走强 [Table_Title] ——有色金属行业点评报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 2 月 26 日 孟业雄 [内Ta容ble摘_S要ummary] [有Ta色b金le_属P（icQ中u信ot）e]与上证综指走势图 告 行 业 重 大 事 件 点 中性 [相Ta关bl报e_告Report] 报 告 [分Ta析b师le_：Author] 联系电话：010-88300920 [Table_Author] 执业证书编号：S1380523040001 邮箱：mengyexiong@gkzq.com.cn 2月24日，刚果（金）相关部门宣布了一项重大决策：为应对全 球钴市场出现的供应过剩问题，该国将钴出口暂停四个月。当日， 刚果（金）战略矿产市场监管控制局发表声明，透露刚果总理与 矿业部长已共同签署法令，授权监管机构在必要时采取临时禁止 出口等措施，确保市场稳定不受干扰。此措施自2月22日起正式 施行。声明还指出，政府计划在措施实施三个月后进行全面评估， 并依据评估结果考虑是否调整或解除当前的出 ...

行 业 研 究 证 券 研 究 [Table_我R国e稀p土Ti管tle理]再上台阶 总量可调信息可溯 [Table_Date] 2025 年 2 月 25 日 [Table_Title] ——有色金属行业点评报告 孟业雄 [内Ta容ble摘_S要ummary] 报 告 行 业 重 大 事 件 点 资料来源：Wind，国开证券研究与发展部 [行Ta业b评le_级IndustryRank] 中性 [相Ta关bl报e_告Report] 评 报 告 [分Ta析b师le_：Author] [Table_Author] 执业证书编号：S1380523040001 联系电话：010-88300920 邮箱：mengyexiong@gkzq.com.cn 2月19日，工信部原材料工业司发布了《稀土开采和稀土冶炼分 离总量调控管理办法（暂行）（公开征求意见稿）》（以下简称 《总量办法》)和《稀土产品信息追溯管理办法（暂行）（公开 征求意见稿）》（以下简称《追溯办法》）。 [有Ta色b金le_属P（icQ中u信ot）e]与上证综指走势图 《总量办法》明确了稀土开采和冶炼分离的总量控制目标，旨在 通过科学合理的调控，实现资源的优 ...

Economic Growth - Q4 2024 GDP grew by 5.4% YoY, exceeding the expected 5.1% and previous 4.6%[3] - Full-year GDP growth for 2024 is 5.0%, slightly above the expected 4.9% and previous 5.3%[3] - GDP growth has maintained above 5% for two consecutive years, achieving the annual target of around 5%[9] Industrial and Investment Performance - December industrial added value increased by 6.2% YoY, surpassing the expected 5.5% and previous 5.4%[3] - Fixed asset investment from January to December 2024 grew by 3.2%, below the expected 3.4% and previous 3.3%[3] - Infrastructure investment showed stability with a 9.2% YoY increase, while real estate investment declined by 10.6% YoY[14][15] Consumer Spending Trends - December retail sales of consumer goods rose by 3.7% YoY, better than the expected 3.5% and previous 3.0%[3] - Final consumption expenditure contributed 2.2 percentage points to economic growth in 2024, with Q4 contributing 1.6 percentage points[12] - The "old-for-new" consumption policy has significantly boosted sales in appliances and automobiles, with retail sales in these categories growing by 12.3% YoY[12] Export and Manufacturing Insights - Exports grew by 10.0% YoY in Q4, accelerating by approximately 4 percentage points from Q3[10] - Manufacturing investment maintained resilience with a 9.2% YoY increase, supported by high-tech manufacturing and favorable policies[17] Risks and Uncertainties - Potential risks include unexpected central bank adjustments, inflation, trade tensions, and geopolitical uncertainties[18]

Group 1 - The A-share market experienced significant fluctuations in 2024, with two major ups and downs, and trading activity was initially low before a major policy shift in late September led to a market rebound [3][9][10] - The financial sector outperformed other sectors, while consumer sectors showed relatively weak performance, particularly in the TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) sector during the rapid rebound phase [3][4][27] - The performance of strategic emerging industries was generally weaker than the market average, with the North Exchange stocks showing significantly better performance compared to other boards, albeit with high volatility [3][4][48] Group 2 - The financial industry led the gains in 2024, with banks, non-banking financials, telecommunications, and home appliances seeing increases of 34%, 30%, 29%, and 25% respectively [27][28] - Consumer sectors, including pharmaceuticals and food and beverage, lagged behind, with less than 20% of pharmaceutical stocks showing gains throughout the year [27][28] - The performance of state-owned enterprises was relatively strong, with a 57% increase in the number of rising stocks, while private enterprises showed a 32% increase [37][38] Group 3 - The valuation analysis indicated that many broad market indices had PE ratios significantly above their 2023 levels, with the ChiNext 50 index nearing its highest PE ratio since its inception [53][59] - The real estate sector's PE ratio was at its highest in nearly a decade, while some sectors like public utilities and agriculture had PE ratios significantly lower than their historical averages [59][60] - The overall valuation levels across different types of enterprises were deemed reasonable, with state-owned enterprises showing a higher proportion of rising stocks compared to local state-owned and private enterprises [64][65] Group 4 - The market outlook suggests that the A-share market's mid-term performance is expected to improve, driven by policies aimed at stimulating economic recovery and investor confidence [68][72] - Key sectors such as technology, electricity, and environmental protection are anticipated to present investment opportunities due to favorable policies and market conditions [74][75] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the M1-M2 differential as a potential indicator for economic recovery, with expectations for better performance in 2025 [72][73]

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Neutral" [5][79]. Core Insights - The consumer electronics industry is expected to experience a recovery driven by innovation and supportive policies, with a potential increase in both volume and price across the supply chain [6][78]. - The industry has undergone a continuous destocking process in 2024, with a moderate recovery in terminal demand and improving quarterly performance for listed companies [6][78]. - The introduction of AI technologies is anticipated to catalyze a new wave of innovation, particularly in PCs and smartphones, leading to increased replacement demand [6][78]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Performance - As of December 31, 2024, the consumer electronics sector has seen a cumulative increase of 14.03% since the beginning of the year, lagging behind the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index by 0.65 percentage points [9]. - The sub-industries have shown divergence, with components and assembly rising by 16.63%, while brand consumer electronics fell by 3.18% [9]. 2. Fundamentals - In the first three quarters of 2024, the consumer electronics industry achieved revenue of 1,160.08 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21.84%, and a net profit of 47.703 billion yuan, up 16.46% [25]. - The industry is experiencing a gradual improvement in performance, with the third quarter showing a revenue of 458.136 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 26.42% [26]. 3. Outlook - Global terminal demand is showing signs of moderate recovery, with smartphone sales increasing by 4% year-on-year in Q3 2024, marking the highest growth since 2015 [45]. - AI is expected to drive a new innovation cycle, with significant advancements in chip technology from major players like Apple, enhancing performance and user experience [65][66]. - The Chinese mainland remains a critical part of the global consumer electronics supply chain, benefiting from strong manufacturing capabilities and ongoing policy support [74][75]. 4. Valuation - The price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for the consumer electronics sector is currently at 29.8 times, reflecting a 6% decrease from the end of 2023 and indicating a relative low valuation compared to historical levels [20].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" [4] Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of enhancing the proportion of institutional investors to boost market confidence, particularly in the context of recent policy changes aimed at providing liquidity support to enhance the funding capabilities of institutional investors [18][6] - The introduction of the Securities, Fund, and Insurance Swap Facility (SFISF) is expected to significantly improve market liquidity and investor behavior, particularly by allowing institutions to leverage their positions more effectively [6][42] Summary by Sections 1. Background of the Tool - The report highlights the need to restore market expectations and stability in China's capital markets, which have been affected by high retail investor participation and recent market volatility [17][18] - Institutional investors currently hold approximately 18.83% of the market, which is significantly lower than the 60% in the U.S. market, indicating a need for increased institutional participation [17] 2. Analysis of Swap Facility - The SFISF was jointly issued by the central bank and the securities regulatory authority to enhance liquidity support for securities, fund, and insurance companies [20] - Key rules include not consuming net capital of non-bank institutions, lowering risk control indicators, and allowing certain investments to be counted in other comprehensive income (OCI) accounts [20][21] 3. Comparison with Other Markets - The report compares SFISF with similar tools in mature markets, such as the Term Securities Lending Facility (TSLF) used by the Federal Reserve, noting that SFISF is designed specifically to support the stock market [40][41] - The operational scale of SFISF is set at an initial 500 billion yuan, with potential for expansion based on market conditions [22] 4. Impact of the Swap Facility - The SFISF is expected to enhance liquidity by allowing institutions to use high-quality assets as collateral to obtain central bank notes, which can then be reinvested in the stock market [42] - The tool is anticipated to significantly increase the leverage capacity of institutions, thereby improving market liquidity and stability [45][46] - The report notes that the initial operation of the SFISF has already seen over 90% of the applied amount utilized, indicating strong market engagement [55] 5. Effects on Brokerages - The SFISF is expected to stimulate brokerage activities by relaxing risk control indicators, thereby increasing the participation of institutions in the A-share market [49][53] - The report lists 20 companies, including 17 brokerages, that have been approved to participate in the SFISF, indicating a broad acceptance of the tool within the industry [49][50] 6. Capital Market Implications - The introduction of the SFISF is likely to accelerate the growth of ETF products, particularly equity ETFs, which have seen significant growth in recent years [57][58] - The report notes that the ETF market has experienced a compound annual growth rate of 38.02% over the past four years, with institutional participation expected to further drive this growth [57]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" [3][11]. Core Insights - The report discusses the revision of the "Guidelines for the Issuance and Listing of Corporate Bonds" aimed at enhancing the service quality of special corporate bonds to support national strategies and the real economy, particularly in areas like green low-carbon transition, technological innovation, rural revitalization, and inclusive finance [1][4]. - The guidelines optimize issuance conditions, adaptability, fund usage, and management for financing projects in key strategic areas, thereby facilitating easier access to financing for technology innovation enterprises and enhancing the inclusivity of green and rural revitalization bonds [2][5][6]. Summary by Sections Major Content - The guidelines optimize the issuance conditions for technology innovation bonds, broadening the range of eligible issuers and improving evaluation metrics for technology enterprises [4][5]. - The guidelines extend the period for using raised funds to replace self-financed expenditures for green projects to 12 months, promoting funding towards green development and rural revitalization [5][6]. - The guidelines enhance the flexibility of fund usage for small and micro enterprises, allowing for the replacement of expenditures incurred within three months prior to bond issuance [5][6]. - The guidelines support listed companies with two consecutive years of "A" ratings in information disclosure to issue short-term corporate bonds, thereby improving their short-term financing channels [6][7]. Impact on the Industry - The revised guidelines clarify the review procedures, content, and standards for special corporate bonds, improving efficiency for brokers in underwriting and issuing corporate bonds [2][7]. - The guidelines enhance brokers' ability to serve national strategies by providing clearer paths for financing in technology innovation, green development, and rural revitalization [2][7]. - The guidelines reinforce the responsibility of brokers regarding information disclosure, linking disclosure evaluation results to financing conditions, thus improving service quality [2][7].

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Neutral" [5][31][32] Core Insights - The recovery momentum in the industry is gathering strength, driven by the rapid iteration of AI large models and consumer stimulus policies. In 2024, the daily usage of Baidu's Wenxin large model exceeded 1.5 billion, a 30-fold increase from the previous quarter. The cost of AI models is also decreasing significantly, with some models priced as low as 0.0015 yuan per thousand tokens, making them highly competitive [6][23][24]. - The domestic semiconductor industry is expected to accelerate its localization process, supported by increased government initiatives in the U.S., Japan, and South Korea. The Chinese government is also focusing on strengthening basic research and key core technology breakthroughs, indicating a growing urgency for domestic substitution in critical areas like chips [6][28][29]. - The electronic information manufacturing industry saw a year-on-year increase of 12.2% in added value from January to November 2024, with integrated circuit production leading the growth at 23.1% [25][26]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Review for December 2024 - The A-share electronic sector (Shenwan) had a monthly increase of 0.49%, ranking 8th among 31 primary industries. The sub-sectors of other electronics, components, and consumer electronics performed relatively well, with monthly increases of 7.01%, 3.99%, and 1.69%, respectively [13][14]. 2. Recovery Momentum and Localization Acceleration - The AI-driven innovation cycle is expected to boost the consumer electronics supply chain, leading to simultaneous increases in volume and price. The semiconductor sector, as a cornerstone of the electronic information industry, is likely to benefit from policy support aimed at supply chain autonomy and localization [6][29]. - The global market for smart glasses is still in its infancy, with only 1.5 million units shipped as of Q3 2024, indicating significant growth potential [24]. 3. Financial Performance - From January to November 2024, the electronic information manufacturing sector achieved a revenue of 14.45 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.2%, with total profits reaching 565.3 billion yuan, up 2.9% [26][27].

Market Overview - The A-share market exhibited a shrinking and fluctuating trend last week (December 23-27), with large-cap sectors outperforming while small-cap indices continued to lag behind. The Shanghai Composite Index broke through the 3400-point mark, with a weekly change of +0.95% [9][10] - Most sectors experienced declines, but there was notable strength in banking, oil and petrochemicals, public utilities, and transportation, while media, social services, computing, textiles, and real estate sectors underperformed [10][12] Strategy Insights - The market is expected to continue a short-term oscillating rebound, but defensive measures remain necessary. The A-share market has experienced "two fluctuations" in 2024, with a policy shift in late September effectively boosting market sentiment. Since mid-December, state-owned enterprises and large-cap value stocks have outperformed the broader market [5][33] - There are bright spots in certain sectors, with active trading expected to persist. Recent developments in AI large models, low-altitude economy, and humanoid robots are anticipated to enhance market activity. High-performing growth sectors are likely to attract capital attention, while regulatory guidance on "supporting the strong and limiting the weak" should be closely monitored [5][34][35] Sector Performance - The banking sector led the performance among sub-industries, while the digital media, education, advertising, and e-commerce sectors have struggled for two consecutive weeks. Over 1300 stocks achieved positive returns last week, accounting for approximately 25% of the total, with a median weekly decline of -3.1% for individual stocks [10][13] - The recent focus on expanding domestic demand and the potential recovery of the M1-M2 differential are expected to drive stability in the domestic economy, with certain consumer sectors like light industry and pharmaceuticals showing potential for rebound [35][36] Global Market Context - Globally, markets experienced minimal volatility due to the Christmas holiday, with the U.S. stock indices collectively declining on Friday. The expectation of a more hawkish policy from the Federal Reserve in 2025 has led to rising U.S. Treasury yields, with the risk-free interest rate differential between China and the U.S. widening to over 2.9 percentage points [30][31]