1 2 月 8 日，央行发布《2023 年四季度货币政策执行报告》（下称 《报告》）。对此我们重点关注以下四个方面： 加力逆周期调节，聚焦高质量投放 一、形势判断：直面问题，坚定信心 通胀方面，《报告》认为"物价水平较低背后反映的是经济有效需 求不足、总供求恢复不同步"，预计"未来随着基数效应逐步减弱，商 品和服务需求的持续恢复，物价总体将呈温和回升态势"，再度重申 "不存在长期通缩或通胀的基础"。 《报告》要求"强化宏观政策逆周期和跨周期调节，坚持把金融 服务实体经济作为根本宗旨，始终保持货币政策的稳健性，增强宏观 政策取向一致性"。本次《报告》延续了中央经济工作会议的表述， 将"逆周期"置于"跨周期"之前，次序相较三季度《报告》及中央 金融工作会议发生了调换，表明政策加力"稳增长"的意愿上升。 |研究院·资产负债管理部 行内偕作·快评号外 2024 年 2 月 9 日 ——《2023 年四季度货币政策执行报告》四大要点 《报告》认为我国经济持续回升向好"需要克服一些困难和挑 战"。从国际看，发达经济体本轮加息周期或已结束，但高利率的滞 后影响还将持续显现；2024 年作为全球选举大年，世界政治经济形势 的 ...

Credit Growth - In January, new RMB loans reached 4.92 trillion, a historical high for the same period, exceeding the five-year average by approximately 1.1 trillion[2] - The increase in long-term loans for residents was 627.2 billion, up by 404.1 billion year-on-year, returning to the average levels of 2017-2019[7] - New social financing amounted to 6.5 trillion, with a year-on-year increase of 506.1 billion[23] Market Dynamics - The government bond issuance slowed down in January, with new government bond financing at 294.7 billion, down by 119.3 billion year-on-year[8] - Corporate bond financing increased by 483.5 billion, up by 319.7 billion year-on-year, indicating a shift towards direct financing[8] - M2 growth rate dropped to 8.7%, primarily due to a significant decrease in resident deposits, which increased by 2.53 trillion but was down by 3.67 trillion year-on-year[19] Economic Indicators - M1 growth rate rose to 5.9%, reflecting a marginal increase in economic activity, up by 4.6 percentage points month-on-month[19] - Non-financial corporate loans increased by 3.86 trillion, down by 820 billion year-on-year, with medium and long-term loans at 3.31 trillion, down by 1900 billion[20] - The significant gap in broad liquidity (M2 minus social financing) is expected to narrow as seasonal factors dissipate post-Spring Festival[14]

二、政策意图：提振信心，托举楼市 2 月 20 日，中国人民银行公布贷款市场报价利率，1 年期 LPR 保持 不变为 3.45%，5 年期以上 LPR 下降 25bp 至 3.95%。 本次降息幅度总体超出预期，有两点主要特征。一是 LPR 非对称调 降。1 年期 LPR 不变而 5 年期以上 LPR 下调，期限溢价缩窄至历史新低 50bp。本次 5 年期以上 LPR 调降高达 25bp，是自 2019 年 8 月 LPR 报价 制度改革以来的单次最大降幅。二是在本月 MLF 按兵不动的情况下，通 过压缩加点调降 LPR。5 年期以上 LPR 加点下调 25bp 至 145bp，金融机 构将进一步加大向实体经济让利的力度。 本次降息充分显示了宏观政策"稳增长"的决心，一方面发挥货币 政策的信号作用和预期管理功能，另一方面增强金融服务实体经济的质 效。 本次 LPR 降息落地时点基本符合市场预期。去年四季度，GDP 两年 复合增速降至 4.0%，环比下滑 0.4pct。开年以来，各项数据未见明显改 善，经济内生动能仍待巩固。2 月 18 号，央行主管媒体《金融时报》率 先发声，表示本月 LPR 可能下行，5 年 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a downward trend in lithium prices due to weakened demand and increased supply, suggesting a cautious investment outlook for the lithium industry in 2024 [1][2]. Core Insights - The lithium industry is experiencing a shift from supply shortages in 2022 to a slight oversupply in 2023, leading to a significant price decline, with battery-grade lithium carbonate averaging 259,000 CNY/ton in 2023, a 46% decrease from 2022 [1][2]. - The demand for lithium is expected to grow by 8.3% year-on-year in 2024, reaching 1.064 million tons LCE, but this growth is slower compared to previous years [2]. - Supply is projected to increase significantly, with an annual production capacity of 953,000 tons LCE in 2024, a 52.2% increase from 2023, leading to a widening supply-demand gap [2]. Summary by Sections 1. Review: Weakened Demand and Increased Supply - Prices for lithium salts have shown significant volatility, with battery-grade lithium carbonate prices fluctuating dramatically throughout 2023, ultimately falling to 96,900 CNY/ton by December 29, 2023 [12][15]. - Upstream mining production has continued to grow, particularly with contributions from African mines, while midstream refining growth has slowed [12][19]. - Downstream demand for batteries has weakened, with purchasing intentions declining and inventory levels remaining low [30][32]. 2. Corporate Operations: Upstream Revenue Growth, Midstream Profit Decline - Upstream mining companies have seen revenue growth in 2023 due to increased sales volumes or higher prices, although production costs have also risen [34][38]. - Midstream refining companies have faced revenue declines and increased costs, with only Tianqi Lithium reporting revenue growth due to higher sales volumes and prices [41]. 3. Industry Trends: Oligopolistic Competition and Resource Acquisition - The lithium industry remains dominated by a few key players, with the top six companies accounting for 58.3% of global production capacity [2]. - Despite falling lithium prices, competition for mining resources remains intense, particularly in regions like Sichuan, where auction prices for lithium mines have surged dramatically [2]. 4. Outlook: Weak Supply and Demand, Downward Price Trend - The lithium industry is expected to see both supply and demand growth rates slow in 2024, with prices continuing to trend downward [2]. - The average cash cost of lithium is projected to support prices around 70,000 to 80,000 CNY/ton in the short term, with upstream production capacity growth outpacing midstream refining [2].

1 随着地方两会的召开，31 个省区市 2024 年 GDP 增速目标已全部出炉。 各省目标设定在 4.5%-8%区间内，GDP 加权目标增速为 5.4%，较 2023 年 （5.6%）略微下调。按往年完成情况，各省目标增速可支撑全国实现 5%左 右的经济增速目标。 目标谨慎，大省担当 一、2024 年目标增速分布：格局延续、中枢下移 高区，目标增速高于 5.5%（不含）的省区市（图 1 红色），包括海南、 西藏、新疆、四川、湖北、湖南、安徽、重庆、内蒙古、吉林、甘肃、宁 夏等 12 个省份。该区以中西部省份为主，其中吉林、甘肃、内蒙古、四川 的增速目标与上年持平，今年因分布中枢下移进入到高区。以上省份中，目 标最高的为海南，设定为"8%左右"；新疆、西藏、海南三省是为数不多目 标设定在 6.5%以上的省份，均位于中西部；吉林近年来首次出现在高区， 这对于长期处于增速底部的东北三省也是一次突破。 低区，目标增速低于 5.5%（不含）的省区市（图 1 蓝色），包括广东、 区域点评（2024年２月８日） 江苏、山东、上海、北京、江西、云南、广西、山西、青海、天津等 11 个 省份。粤苏鲁沪京已连续多年位于低区，但 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the industry, highlighting strong demand and recovery trends during the extended Spring Festival holiday period [2][21]. Core Insights - The extended Spring Festival holiday has significantly boosted consumer spending, with travel and tourism showing remarkable recovery compared to pre-pandemic levels [2][21]. - The report emphasizes a structural shift in travel patterns, with a notable increase in self-driving trips and a decline in traditional public transport usage [3][4][21]. - Service consumption, particularly in tourism and hospitality, has outperformed goods consumption, reflecting a shift in consumer preferences [8][21]. Summary by Sections Spring Festival Travel - The total number of travelers during the Spring Festival exceeded 5.41 billion, marking a 14.4% increase compared to 2019 and a 15.8% increase compared to 2023 [3][5]. - Self-driving travel has surged, with non-commercial vehicle usage rising by 36.4% compared to 2019, now accounting for over 80% of total travel [4][5]. - Air travel has also seen significant growth, with passenger numbers increasing by 18.4% compared to 2019, and average ticket prices rising by 16.0% compared to 2019 [6][21]. Consumer Spending - Online payment transactions during the holiday period increased by 18.6% in volume and 8.0% in value, indicating a strong recovery in consumer spending [8][21]. - Key retail and dining sectors reported an 8.5% increase in sales, with major chain supermarkets and restaurants seeing even higher growth rates [8][21]. - Domestic tourism saw 474 million trips, generating revenue of 632.7 billion yuan, which is a 7.7% increase compared to 2019 [8][21]. Tourism Sector Highlights - Popular tourist destinations experienced significant increases in visitor numbers, with some locations reporting over 200% growth compared to 2019 [12][15]. - Hainan's duty-free sales averaged 310 million yuan per day, a 40.1% increase year-on-year, although the average spending per customer decreased by 15.9% [16][21]. - The average travel expenditure per person during the holiday was 1,335 yuan, recovering to 91% of pre-pandemic levels [11][21]. Film Industry Performance - The Spring Festival box office reached 8.05 billion yuan, setting a new record, primarily due to an increase in the number of effective screening days [18][21]. - The average ticket price for films decreased by 6% compared to the previous year, reflecting a competitive market environment [18][21].