稳步转鹰 |研究院 资产负债管理部 行内偕作·宏观点评 2025 年 1 月 25 日 ——日央行议息会议点评（2025 年 1 月） 东京时间 1 月 24 日，日央行宣布加息 25bp。这是继去年 7 月套息交易 逆转风波后首次加息，创 2007 年 2 月以来最大加息幅度。短期政策利率水 平升至 0.5%，创 2008 年 10 月以来新高。 前瞻地看，日央行正在告别保持极低利率的宏观基础，加息节奏及幅度 可能高于市场预期。利率水平或于年中升至 1%附近，本轮加息终点可能接近 2%。一方面，薪资与物价之间的正向循环愈发稳固，通胀已经实质性修复。 另一方面，企业与居民部门之间的正向循环正在建立，私人部门借贷意愿相 应修复。 从短期看，日元套息交易逆转冲击或难重现，相关头寸的风险偏好已在 冲击发生后显著下降。从中长期看，若日央行加息幅度超出预期，全球日元 流动性或大规模退潮，以美股为代表的风险资产面临估值压力，美联储降息 空间相应增加。 一、经济：更加乐观 日央行对日本经济及通胀形势的判断越发乐观，首次认可通胀水平或长 期稳定于 2%上方。 一是介于薪资与物价之间的正向循环愈发稳固，未来两年通胀预测值升 至 ...

行业点评（2025 年 2 月 5 日） 春节消费观察：平稳复苏，电影表现亮眼 春节假期消费数据能够折射出消费修复成色。2025 年春节假期延长至 8 天，叠加"以旧换新"等政策延续，消费修复表现值得关注。 一、出行：人员流动活跃，自驾仍是主力，民航量增价跌 截至正月初七，春运出行量稳健增长。2025 年春运于 1 月 14 日开启， 将于 2 月 22 日结束，共 40 天。节前，交通运输部 预计春运期间全社会 跨区域人员流动量将达到 90 亿人次，创历史新高。截至 2 月 4 日，春运时 长已过半，全社会跨区域人员流动量达到 54.8 亿人次，同比增长 7.5%， 较 2019 年同期增长 21.4%。 分出行方式看， 1）与 2024 年同期相比，各类出行方式的客运量实现平稳增长。春运 前 22 天（截至 2 月 4 日），营业性公路/民航/水运/铁路/非营业性小客车 客运量同比分别增长 14.4%/8.6%/8.6%/7%/6.6%，营业性公路表现相对突 出。 2）与 2019 年同期相比，自驾出行仍是春运主力。春运前 22 天，高 速公路及普通国省道非营业性小客车人员出行量较 2019 年同期增长 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the real estate industry Core Insights - The new housing transaction volume has significantly declined, returning to levels seen in the same period last year, while the sustainability of sales post-Spring Festival is a key focus [1][22] - Following the "924 policy," there has been a notable rebound in the market, with both new and second-hand housing transactions reaching annual highs in December 2024 [2][22] - The second-hand housing market is experiencing a weak effect of "price for volume," with a decrease in the number of cities seeing price increases month-on-month [2][4] Market Status - New housing sales in the first three weeks of January 2025 have dropped significantly, with a daily average transaction area down 48% compared to December 2024 [3][4] - The cumulative transaction volume for new homes has decreased by 0.4% compared to the same period last year, marking a nearly 40% decline compared to the average of 2022-2023 [3][4] - The second-hand housing market has also seen a slight decline, but it remains at a six-year high for the same period, with a 55% increase year-on-year [4][16] City-Level Analysis - In the first three weeks of 2025, first-tier cities have shown relative stability in transaction volumes, while second-tier cities have experienced a significant decline [11][22] - Specific cities like Shenzhen have shown strong rebounds in both new and second-hand housing markets, while Guangzhou's second-hand market has performed the weakest among selected cities [11][22] - The report highlights that the transaction volume in second-tier cities, except for Qingdao, has generally performed well, but recent weeks have seen a notable drop [11][22] Statistical Data - In December 2024, the total sales area for commercial housing was 970 million square meters, with a year-on-year decline of 12.9% [16][21] - The report anticipates that the sales volume for commercial housing in 2025 will continue to decline, with expected year-on-year decreases of 7%-8% in sales area and 9%-10% in sales value [16][21] Outlook - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the sustainability of the market rebound after the Spring Festival, as this period is traditionally a slow season for sales [22] - The effectiveness of new policies and their implementation will be crucial for maintaining market momentum, particularly in the context of the "924 policy" and its impact on market expectations [22][24]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a sustained high level of activity in the shipbuilding market, with a focus on supply-side marginal changes and the potential for continued demand from shipowners for fleet renewal and green transformation [1][9]. Core Insights - The shipbuilding market is expected to maintain high activity levels in the medium term, supported by the demand for fleet renewal and green initiatives, despite a potential slowdown in new ship order growth due to high base effects [1][9]. - The transition to green shipping is essential, with rising carbon emission costs driving the need for alternative fuels, such as LNG and methanol, to achieve decarbonization goals set by international maritime organizations [2][11]. - The inland shipping sector is experiencing a trend towards larger and greener vessels, driven by improvements in waterway standards and supportive policies for new energy vessels [3][11]. Summary by Sections Shipbuilding Market Sustainability - Demand from shipowners for fleet renewal and green initiatives is a key driver for new ship orders, with an increasing number of aging vessels expected to be decommissioned in the coming years [10][11]. - The global shipping market remains robust, with high cash flow among shipowners enabling continued investment in new vessels [15][16]. - Supply-side conditions show that shipbuilding capacity has bottomed out and is expected to maintain high utilization rates in the short to medium term, with a focus on the marginal expansion of capacity in China [17][24]. Green Shipping Impact - The shipping industry is under pressure to decarbonize, with the International Maritime Organization (IMO) setting ambitious targets for reducing carbon emissions [2][39]. - The adoption of alternative fuels is crucial for achieving these decarbonization goals, with a diverse range of fuel options being explored, including LNG and methanol [47][50]. - The economic viability and supply reliability of green methanol are critical issues, with current high prices expected to decrease as production capacity expands [2][11]. Changes in Inland Shipping - The ongoing upgrade of inland waterways is facilitating the trend towards larger vessels, enhancing operational efficiency [3][11]. - New energy vessel policies are accelerating the green transformation of inland shipping, with subsidies covering initial investment costs for new energy vessels [3][11].

Summary of the Conference Call on China Merchants Highway Company Overview - China Merchants Highway is the only central enterprise highway operation platform listed in A-shares nationwide, distinguishing it from other provincial state-owned highway companies [1][3] - The company has the longest investment operating mileage in the country and aims to position itself as a platform operation company [2] Core Business Model - The business model is characterized by both external acquisitions and internal growth, allowing for strong growth potential [1][14] - Approximately 40% of the company's profits come from its core investment operations, while 60% is derived from investment income [4] - The company has a diversified revenue stream, with about 35% of revenue coming from investment operations, traffic technology, intelligent transportation, and ecological projects [5] Growth and Acquisition Strategy - The company has achieved a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 13% in revenue and nearly 10% in profit before the pandemic, primarily through external acquisitions [6] - From 2010 to 2020, the company's toll mileage increased from 140 kilometers to over 1,000 kilometers, showcasing its strong acquisition capabilities [6] - The sources of acquisitions are diverse, including partnerships with central enterprises and private companies, enhancing the company's asset acquisition capabilities [7] Financial Performance and Projections - In 2023, the company experienced a year-on-year decline in performance of approximately 5%, with a projected further decline in Q4 due to a high base effect from the previous year [16] - The net profit dropped from 6.8 billion to 5.8 billion, a decrease of 1 billion [17] - Looking ahead to 2025, the company is expected to see improved performance driven by asset acquisitions and a recovery in the freight index [18] Dividend Policy - The current dividend payout ratio is around 55%, with expectations for a potential increase in the upcoming dividend commitment due to the company's strong cash position [19] Competitive Positioning - China Merchants Highway is viewed as a top recommendation in the highway sector due to its unique business model and superior growth potential compared to other companies in the industry [20] - The company is positioned to outperform the average growth rate of the industry, making it a favorable investment choice [20]

Summary of Conference Call Records Company and Industry - The conference call primarily discusses the banking industry, specifically focusing on 招商银行 (China Merchants Bank) and its strategic directions for 2025. Key Points and Arguments Macroeconomic Environment - The macroeconomic policies, including fiscal and monetary policies, are expected to be more proactive in 2025 compared to 2024, which may lead to stronger economic recovery and stimulus effects [1][2] - The bank anticipates a slight increase in loan growth compared to the overall social financing growth, maintaining a balance between aggressive and conservative strategies [2][3] Retail Banking Focus - The bank continues to prioritize retail banking, with expectations for retail loans, particularly mortgages and credit cards, to show recovery and growth in 2025 [5][6] - The bank's strategy includes capturing market opportunities arising from government stimulus policies, especially in consumption and real estate [2][4] Asset Quality and Risk Management - The bank has observed an increase in the attention rate of retail loans, which is a common trend across the industry, influenced by regulatory changes and internal risk assessment standards [31][32] - The bank maintains a robust asset quality management strategy, with a focus on high-quality clients and a proactive approach to risk assessment [33][34] Credit Card and Mortgage Business - The credit card business is showing signs of recovery, with transaction volumes increasing compared to previous years, particularly in auto financing [9][10] - The mortgage business is expected to perform better than the industry average, with a focus on first and second-tier cities [7][8] Wealth Management and Fee Income - Wealth management fee income is under pressure but is expected to stabilize as the capital market improves [17][19] - The bank is focusing on enhancing its wealth management capabilities and product offerings to meet changing customer preferences [24][25] Interest Rate and Deposit Management - The bank is experiencing a decline in deposit costs, aligning with industry trends, and is managing its deposit structure to maintain competitive interest margins [14][15] - The bank's net interest margin is projected to remain under pressure due to ongoing interest rate cuts, but it aims to maintain a favorable position compared to peers [45][46] Future Outlook - The bank is optimistic about the potential for growth in 2025, driven by strategic initiatives in retail banking, asset quality management, and wealth management [48] - The bank plans to continue its focus on high-quality customer segments and adapt to market changes to sustain its competitive edge [39][40] Dividend Policy - The bank has a strong commitment to maintaining a stable dividend payout, with a target cash dividend rate of around 30% to ensure shareholder returns [39][40] Other Important Content - The bank's approach to insurance products is evolving, with a focus on long-term growth potential in the insurance asset class [24][25] - The bank is actively monitoring the real estate sector's performance and adjusting its risk management strategies accordingly [35][36] This summary encapsulates the key insights and strategic directions discussed during the conference call, highlighting the bank's focus on retail banking, asset quality, and proactive management in a changing economic landscape.

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the **real estate industry** and its implications on the broader **economic landscape** in China. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Production vs. Investment Recovery** - The production sector is recovering faster than the investment sector, as evidenced by the rapid increase in operational rates and output in industries such as steel production since September 24 and October 8, when key policies were introduced [1][2]. 2. **Government Policies and Economic Stimulus** - A series of government policies aimed at stabilizing the real estate market and stimulating the economy were discussed, including a debt resolution plan introduced on October 8, which is expected to have a significant impact on economic recovery [1][2][3]. 3. **Real Estate Market Dynamics** - The second-hand housing market is showing slow recovery, particularly in major cities, while new housing sales and land transactions are performing better than in previous years. This indicates a potential balance in supply and demand in the real estate market moving forward [3][4]. 4. **Consumer Spending Trends** - Consumer spending data remains weak, particularly in major cities like Shanghai and Beijing, with significant negative growth reported in October. However, government subsidies and policies are expected to improve consumer behavior over time [4][5]. 5. **Economic Growth Projections** - Economic growth is projected to be around 5.0% for the coming year, with expectations that real estate investment growth will stabilize or decline. The overall economic environment is seen as complex due to both long-term and short-term challenges [5][6]. 6. **Debt Management and Liquidity** - The discussion highlighted the importance of debt management, with an estimated 13 trillion yuan in new government debt expected to be issued. This is seen as a critical factor in maintaining liquidity in the economy [7][8]. 7. **Banking Sector Outlook** - The banking sector is expected to maintain stable profit growth, supported by lower interest rates and improved asset quality due to government measures aimed at stabilizing the real estate market [19][20][21]. 8. **Market Sentiment and Stock Performance** - The stock market is anticipated to respond positively to the combination of government policies and improved economic conditions, with a focus on high-quality stocks and technology sectors as potential outperformers [18][24]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Seasonal Factors** - The impact of seasonal factors on production and investment recovery was noted, with the months of November and December typically being weaker due to seasonal trends [1][2]. 2. **M1 Growth as an Economic Indicator** - The M1 money supply growth has been increasing since September 24, indicating a rise in consumer activity and overall economic vitality [12][14]. 3. **Long-term Economic Challenges** - The discussion acknowledged that the economy is facing both long-term structural issues and short-term cyclical challenges, complicating the recovery process [6][7]. 4. **Investment Strategies** - Recommendations for investment strategies included focusing on sectors that are likely to benefit from economic recovery, such as high-quality stocks and technology, while being cautious of potential market volatility [18][24]. 5. **Impact of External Economic Conditions** - The potential influence of external economic conditions, such as global financial crises, on domestic economic recovery was briefly mentioned, suggesting a need for vigilance in monitoring international developments [6][7].

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the A-share market, with a focus on various sectors including banking, transportation, and energy. Core Points and Arguments 1. **A-share Market Outlook for 2025**: The A-share market is expected to maintain an upward trend in 2025, potentially evolving into a significant upward cycle due to positive fiscal and monetary policies from the recent Central Economic Work Conference [1][2][3]. 2. **Investment Opportunities**: There is a scarcity of investment avenues that can yield medium to high returns, making stocks a rare option for investors since September, especially through ETFs [3][4]. 3. **Real Estate Market Support**: Policies aimed at stabilizing and supporting the real estate market are anticipated to continue, which may lead to a recovery in various sectors after a prolonged downturn [2][4]. 4. **Banking Sector Focus**: The focus is on leading banks like China Merchants Bank, which is expected to perform well due to its high dividend yield and strategic advantages in a recovering economy [7][8][9]. 5. **Highway and Transportation Sector**: The highway sector has shown strong performance and is expected to maintain stable or growing earnings, making it a recommended investment area [10][11]. 6. **Port Operations**: Qingdao Port is highlighted for its balanced operations and high return on equity (ROE), with expectations of stable performance in 2025 despite some external pressures [11][12]. 7. **Energy Sector Dynamics**: The energy sector, particularly in electricity pricing, is experiencing downward pressure, but the overall supply-demand balance remains favorable, supporting medium-term performance [15][16]. 8. **Automotive Industry Growth**: Fuyao Glass is projected to see significant growth in revenue and profit over the next few years, driven by expansion in production capacity and improved management [17][18]. 9. **Battery Industry Trends**: Ningde Times is positioned as a leader in the battery sector, with expectations of continued market share growth and strong demand for its products, particularly in the energy storage market [30][32][34]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Market Sentiment and Investment Strategy**: The sentiment around the stock market is cautiously optimistic, with strategies shifting towards blue-chip and value stocks at the beginning of the year, transitioning to growth and technology stocks as the year progresses [5][6]. 2. **Dividend Policies**: Companies like China Merchants Bank are expected to maintain high dividend payouts, which could attract more institutional and retail investors [7][9]. 3. **Sector Rotation**: There is a noted strategy of rotating investments between sectors based on market conditions and performance expectations, particularly as earnings reports are released [6][10]. 4. **Long-term Growth Projections**: The overall growth projections for various sectors, including automotive and energy, indicate a robust outlook, with expected annual growth rates of 15-20% in certain industries [17][34]. This summary encapsulates the key insights and projections discussed in the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current market landscape and future expectations across various sectors.

Economic Outlook - The risk of re-inflation is expected to be a core theme in foreign asset trading, potentially limiting the Federal Reserve's rate cuts below expectations[2] - The U.S. economy's growth forecast for 2024 has been significantly raised by 0.4 percentage points to 2.5%, with the 2025 forecast slightly adjusted up by 0.1 percentage points to 2.1%[12] - The U.S. PCE inflation forecast for 2025 has been increased by 0.4 percentage points to 2.5%[25] Federal Reserve Policy - The Federal Reserve cut rates by 25 basis points, bringing the target range to 4.25-4.5%, while maintaining a balance sheet reduction pace of $60 billion per month[11] - The dot plot indicates a significant reduction in the expected rate cuts for 2024, from 100 basis points to 50 basis points[14] - The Fed's cautious approach to rate cuts suggests that the current cycle may end by mid-2025[15] Market Implications - U.S. Treasury yields have risen sharply, with the 2-year yield up 11 basis points to 4.35% and the 10-year yield up 12 basis points to 4.51%[5] - The strong dollar narrative is expected to persist, with the dollar index projected to range between 105-115, while non-U.S. currencies remain weak[19] - U.S. stock indices experienced significant declines, with the S&P 500 down 2.95% and the Nasdaq down 3.56%[17]

Group 1: Inflation Data Overview - November CPI inflation recorded at 0.2%, lower than the previous value of 0.3% and market expectation of 0.5%[4] - PPI inflation at -2.5%, better than the previous -2.9% and market expectation of -2.7%[4] - Core CPI inflation improved, with a year-on-year increase of 0.3%, up 0.1% from October[6] Group 2: Food and Core CPI Analysis - Food prices fell significantly, with a month-on-month decline of 2.7% and a year-on-year decrease of 1.0%[5] - Pork prices decreased by 3.4% month-on-month, contributing to the overall food price drop[5] - Core CPI month-on-month decreased by 0.1%, but remained within the seasonal range from 2020 to 2023[6] Group 3: PPI Insights - PPI inflation turned positive month-on-month at 0.1%, after five consecutive months of negative growth[9] - Domestic pricing pressures increased due to infrastructure projects and new industry dynamics, with black metal mining prices rising by 0.3%[9] - Some sectors, like automotive manufacturing, showed a narrowing decline in prices, indicating potential recovery[9] Group 4: Future Outlook - CPI inflation is expected to rise to around 0.4% in 2024, while PPI inflation may converge towards -2.0%[10] - Upcoming macroeconomic policies are anticipated to stimulate domestic demand and support price recovery[10] - The central political bureau's meeting in December is expected to outline proactive fiscal and moderate monetary policies for 2025[10]