Deposit Product Overview and Issues - Middle-aged and elderly groups tend to use fixed deposits as a means of wealth preservation, while commercial banks face pressure from narrowing net interest margins and need stable liability funds to optimize their balance sheet structure [1] - The supply of pension-specific savings products is limited, indicating a mismatch between supply and demand [1] - Deposit product characteristics include: (1) term remains the primary factor determining interest rates, (2) liquidity is enhanced through methods like transferability, (3) deposit products are becoming more like wealth management products, such as structured deposits, and (4) financial technology is improving the convenience of deposit products [1] - After 2015, the central bank removed administrative restrictions on deposit rates, promoting interest rate liberalization, but deposit innovations mainly relied on price competition and did not enhance customer loyalty [1] US Commercial Bank Deposit Product Design - US deposit accounts reflect a relationship-tier-based interest rate pricing strategy, where deposit rates do not always increase with term length, and customer-bank relationships are a key factor in pricing [1] - Deposit pricing in the US consists of two parts: funding cost (interest rate) and account service value (service fees), with banks parameterizing service elements to create diverse deposit product packages [1] - US banks use complex terms and customized packages to segment the market, retain customers, and avoid unnecessary expansion in non-core areas [1] - US banks offer children's savings accounts, which serve as tools for parents to cultivate financial literacy in children, with lower interest rates and no account management fees [20] Insights for Creating Pension Deposit Products in China - To avoid price wars, deposit products should be "complexified" by offering diversified deposit combinations, such as the US "laddered deposit strategy," to balance cash flow and long-term goals [2] - Comprehensive contribution pricing methods can be explored for pension deposits, creating deposit packages with different value propositions [2] - Pension electronic accounts can serve as practical tools for middle-aged and young groups to implement pension concepts, similar to the US children's savings accounts [2] - Deposit "FOF" strategies can balance long-term deposits and cash flow by dispersing funds across different maturity dates, reducing the necessity for ultra-long-term deposits [26] - Comprehensive contribution pricing can be applied to the elderly group, offering risk mitigation services and consumption scenario services, with conditional interest rate increases based on customer activity and contribution [28]

Group 1: Trade Policy Overview - The Biden administration announced an increase in tariffs on seven categories of goods imported from China, with a total value of approximately $18.6 billion, affecting 4.4% of total U.S. imports from China[2][7] - Tariff rates will rise from the current 0%-25% to 25%, and in some cases, up to 50% or 100%[2][7] - The affected goods can be categorized into four main groups: green industry products (77% of the total), semiconductor products (12%), traditional manufacturing products (7%), and medical products (low percentage)[2][9] Group 2: Short-term Impact - The direct impact on China's exports is expected to be limited, with the total export value to the U.S. around $500 billion, while the new tariffs only affect $18.6 billion worth of goods[12][11] - There is a potential for "export rush" behavior among Chinese companies to mitigate the impact of tariffs, which may temporarily support export momentum[12][11] - Increased trade uncertainty may arise, affecting bilateral trade dynamics and potentially influencing other countries to adopt similar measures against China[12][11] Group 3: Long-term Implications - The long-term effects of the trade war could lead to a restructuring of global supply chains and adjustments in China's industrial structure[14][15] - Post-election, there is a possibility of further increases in tariffs, with a non-linear escalation not ruled out[14][15] - The U.S. may expand the scope of tariffs to include goods processed in third countries that contain Chinese elements, reflecting changes in trade patterns[14][15] Group 4: Economic Context - Since 2021, the trade dependency between China and the U.S. has decreased, but China's export performance remains closely tied to U.S. demand[2][14] - The U.S. remains the most significant single market for Chinese manufacturing, necessitating proactive measures from China to prepare for potential changes in the trade environment[2][14]

Inflation Overview - September CPI inflation recorded at 0.4%, lower than previous value (0.6%) and market expectation (0.7%) [2] - September PPI inflation at -2.8%, below previous value (-1.8%) and market expectation (-2.5%) [2] CPI Analysis - Food prices remain a strong support for CPI, with pork, fresh vegetables, and fruits continuing to rise, but at a slower pace [3] - September food prices increased by 0.8% month-on-month, with a year-on-year increase of 3.3%, contributing 0.6 percentage points to CPI [3] - Core CPI fell by 0.1% month-on-month and grew only 0.1% year-on-year, marking a decline for three consecutive months [3] PPI Analysis - September PPI recorded a year-on-year decline of -2.8% and a month-on-month decrease of -0.6% [4] - Prices in the mining, raw materials, and processing industries fell by 1.6%, 1.2%, and 0.6% respectively, reflecting weak domestic demand [4] Future Outlook - Anticipated fiscal policies aimed at supporting economic recovery and consumer confidence may lead to a rise in CPI inflation towards 0.6% for the year [5] - PPI inflation is expected to stabilize around -1.9% as domestic demand improves [5]

1 政策点评（2024 年 10 月 13 日） ——10 月 12 日财政部新闻发布会点评 10 月 12 日上午财政部就"加大财政政策逆周期调节力度、推动经济 高质量发展有关情形"举办新闻发布会，部署推出一揽子有针对性增量政 策举措，旨在落实 9 月 26 号中央政治局会议"加大财政货币逆周期调节 力度"、"努力完成全年经济社会发展目标任务"的会议精神。 一、政策立场：定调积极，诚意十足 会议定调积极，充分显示财政政策年内托底经济、长期推动化险的决 心和诚意，并为明年财政政策加码打开想象空间。 一是预估现实挑战，明确达成目标。财政部坦陈"全国一般公共预算 收入执行情况低于年初预算设定的目标"，在收入端偏弱的环境下，财政 部明确表态要"完成全年预算目标"和"推动完成全年经济社会发展目标" 两大任务，发挥好财政逆周期调节作用，将采取有效补充财力、切实保障 各项重点支出和用足用好各类债务资金三大措施。 二是沟通增量举措，拓展政策空间。财政部详细部署了加大支持地方 化解政府债务风险、补充国有大型商业银行资本金、支持房地产市场止跌 回暖以及保民生稳就业这四方面已进入决策程序的增量政策举措，还明确 指出"还有其他政策 ...

1 宏观点评（2024 年 10 月 15 日） 外需支撑趋弱 ——进出口数据点评（2024 年 9 月） 2024 年 9 月我国进、出口金额同比增速同步下行，出口降幅较大， 贸易顺差同比扩张放缓，环比收窄。按美元计价，进出口总金额 5,257.1 亿美元，同比 1.5%。其中，出口 3,037.1 亿美元，同比 2.4%；进口 2,220.0 亿美元，同比 0.3%；贸易顺差 817.1 亿美元，同比扩张 65.9 亿美元 （8.8%），环比收缩 93.1 亿美元（-10.2%）。 一、出口：动能边际走弱 9 月出口金额同比增速较 8 月大幅下滑 6.3pct 至 2.4%，存在季节性 错位和动能走弱两方面影响。9 月通常是三季度出口的小高点，去年 9 月 出口环比更是强于疫前季节性，而今年 8 月强、9 月弱，基数效应放大了 出口增速的月度波动。今年 8-9 月的季节性错位，一是因全球航运运价回 落，企业出货节奏调整，二是受 9 月我国沿海地区台风天气的扰动。另一 方面，随着美欧主导的外需走弱，三季度出口动能总体有所放缓，以 2019 年为基期的出口金额年均复合增速 6.9%，弱于上半年近 1pct，9 ...

我是声望会员策略的陆浩川今天我们邀请声望各个行业非常资深的各位老师跟我们一起来聊一下最近的一个算是热点招商企业的8家业务上市公司在本周一同日集体公告 虽然绝对金额确实不能说特别大普遍占总市值的1%左右但是信号的意义是不容忽视的 所以今天我们分几点来聊一下这件事情首先我这边可能回答几个自上而下的问题第一个问题是这样一个统一行动意味着什么更重要的是为什么是现在发生第二个事情是这批回货的公司它整体上从总量上的哪些特征这些特征背后的原因 那么第三个的话就是我们各位老师会自下而上的去跟各位投资者汇报在自己行业内有哪些公司可能未来会有类似的回扩增值或者说会受益于类似的包括后续的发财政策等等那么我这边就先做一个简要的汇报首先是why not为什么是现在统一行动有两个我们觉得是比较重要的编辑变化第一个编辑变化是这个市值管理指引即将落地这个指引的话是9月24日 三七头这个座谈会上由吴清武主席提出来的那更准确的说呢其实在国旧桥中间就布置了这个任务那么现在等于是在执行那么这个事实管理指引呢大家注意他是9月24日去征求意见那么一个月的时间也就是10月24日下周一周后多的时间呢他就会征求意见完毕那么等到最终的这个落地生效按照过往的一个 ...

研究院 [Table_Yemei0] 资本市场研究•月度报告 2024 年 9 月 29 日 +[Table_Title1] 境内政策超预期快速提升风险偏好，可阶段性增配股票 ——资本市场四季报（2024 年 10 月） [Table_summary1] | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------|-------------------|-------------------|-------|--------|-----------------------------|-------------------------|-------|----------| | | 大类资产 \n美元 | 月度趋势 \n震荡 | 高配 | 中高配 | 配置建议（未来 \n标配 \n● | 6 个月） \n 中低配 | 低配 | 配置变化 | | | 欧元 | 震荡 | | | ● | | | | | 汇率 | 人民币 | 偏强震荡 | | | ● | | | | | | 日元 | 震荡 | | | ● | | | | | | 英镑 | 偏强 ...

[Table_Yemei0] 宏观研究·月度报告 2024 年 9 月 29 日 | --- | --- | |---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-------------------------------| | [Table_Title1] 美欧经济分化，中国逆周期加力 —— 宏观经济月报（ 2024 年 9 月） | | | [Table_summary1] ■ 西方主要经济体走势分化，"美强欧弱"卷土重来。9 月美联储开启降息 | 谭卓 | | 周期，降幅 50bp 超出市场预期，大选效应继续支撑财政扩张，美国宏观政 | 招商银行研究院总经理助理 | | 策走向"双重宽松"，经济再度走强；巴黎奥运会提振效应完全退坡，欧央 | ： 0755-83167787 | | 行执行"鹰派降息"，法德经济双双失速带动欧洲经济重回萎靡。 8 月金融 | ：zhuotan@cmbchina.com | | 动荡令日央行鸽派势力再度抬头，但是通胀回暖引致的内生性复苏仍在持 | 牛 ...

|研究院 纽约分行 行内偕作·宏观点评 2024 年 10 月 5 日 1 平缓降息 ——美国非农就业数据点评（2024 年 9 月） 9 月美国就业再度走强。新增非农就业人数 25.4 万（市场预期 15.0 万）， 失业率 4.1%（市场预期 4.2%），劳动参与率 62.7%（市场预期 62.7%），平均 时薪环比增速 0.4%（市场预期 0.3%），同比增速反弹至 4.0%（市场预期 3.8%）。 9 月就业数据既是财政货币"双宽松"支撑下经济回暖的映射，又是对 市场此前过激衰退担忧与降息预期的一次"再修正"。前瞻地看，美联储降息 步伐或回归平缓，年内仍将降息 1-2 次，合计幅度 25-50bp。 一、边际变化："双宽松"支撑就业走强 财政货币"双宽松"支撑经济回暖，9 月美国就业再度走强。 美国经济摆脱"衰退之虞"。亚特兰大联储 GDPNOW 模型指向 2024Q3 美国经济继续以超过 2%的年化增速稳步扩张，9 月美国服务业 PMI 超预期跳 升至 54.9，创 2023 年 2 月以来新高。一是美国大选支撑财政宽松，2024Q3 中央政府赤字高达$6,517 亿，同比增长 115.4%，环比增 ...

1 政策研究（2024 年 9 月 26 日） ——2024 年 9 月中央政治局会议精神解读 一、形势分析：正视困难、坚定信心 二、宏观政策：加大逆周期调节力度 9 月 26 日，中共中央政治局召开会议（下文简称"会议"），分析研 究当前经济形势，部署下一步经济工作。 此次会议突破常规，以经济工作为主题，定调更加积极的政策立场， 凸显中央对当前经济工作的高度重视。相较 7 月政治局会议，本次会议通 稿篇幅减半，更加简洁有力，略去了诸多固定提法，未提及新兴产业和未 来产业、化解风险等工作，鲜明突出了"逆周期""稳增长"的主题。 会议强调，切实增强做好经济工作的责任感和紧迫感，加大逆周期调 节力度，干字当头、众志成城，勇于担责、敢于创新，认真落实"三个区 分开来"，为担当者担当、为干事者撑腰，努力完成全年经济社会发展目 标任务。 会议肯定了今年以来的经济工作，认为"经济运行总体平稳、稳中 有进"。相较 7 月中央政治局会议"延续回升向好态势"表述更为审慎。 三季度 GDP 同比增速的市场预测中枢下探至 4.6%，在上半年经济增长 5% 的基础上，全年实现"5%左右"经济增长目标的难度加大，政策加力的 紧迫性显著 ...