宏观研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【宏观专题】 A 股盈利的四个宏观线索 ❖ 核心观点。 我们聚焦 2025Q3 万得全 A 的盈利分析，通过杜邦分解和供需格局等视角，寻 找上市公司盈利数据背后的宏观线索，以辅助宏观经济的跟踪与研判，可以发 现：1）ROE 的企稳主要靠销售净利率提升（费用控制）支撑，但销售毛利率 持续承压，说明宏观需求偏弱的背景下企业更多依赖"节流"而非"开源"来 稳定盈利；此外，从资产周转率和资产负债率来看，上市公司运营效率有所改 善，同时杠杆水平维持稳定。2）我们通过产能利用率与资本开支/折旧摊销来 观察行业供需格局，观察到 17 个行业中有 10 个行业处于产能利用率低且资 本开支/折旧摊销低的状态，在宏观上意味着多数行业处于当前供需格局较差 但未来将改善的状态。3）从估值/股息视角，我们根据"估值-股息"四象限梳 理不同行业在当前宏观环境下的相对位置，以此作为观察市场风险偏好的基 准。过去一年 33 个行业中有 24 个呈现"估值升、股息降"的特征，这一微观 结构的变化，侧面印证了宏观层面市场风险偏好在过去一年的边际提升。4） 从动态传导视角看，通过历史数据回溯，我们验证了微观盈利改 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the real estate industry, expecting the industry index to outperform the benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 3-6 months [38]. Core Insights - The real estate sector experienced a decline of 2.6% in the 50th week, ranking 28th among 31 primary industry sectors [7][12]. - New home transactions increased by 10% week-on-week, but year-on-year, new home sales decreased by 34% [18][19]. - The report highlights the need for developers to focus on high-precision land acquisition to ensure asset yield and suggests that regional deepening firms are better suited for the current market conditions [31]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The real estate index fell by 2.6% in the 50th week, ranking 28th among 31 sectors [7][12]. - The absolute performance over 1 month, 6 months, and 12 months was -11.1%, 5.3%, and -11.0%, respectively [2]. Policy News - Sichuan Province aims to enhance housing quality and promote the "Chuanju Good House" initiative as part of its 15th Five-Year Plan [14][15]. - Shandong Province introduced guidelines to support housing "old-for-new" exchanges to stimulate market activity [14][16]. Sales Data - In the 50th week, new home sales in 20 cities totaled 223 million square meters, with a daily average of 31.9 million square meters, reflecting a 10% increase week-on-week but a 34% decrease year-on-year [19][22]. - The total sales area for new homes from the beginning of the year to date is 96.76 million square meters, down 14% year-on-year [19][24]. Financing Trends - Most bond issuances this week were from local state-owned enterprises, with Financial Street issuing the largest scale of 81 billion yuan [27][28]. Investment Strategy - The report suggests three directions for finding alpha in the real estate sector: focusing on developers with high land acquisition precision, investing in leading shopping centers, and targeting leading real estate agencies [31].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended," indicating an expected increase in the industry index exceeding the benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 3-6 months [18]. Core Insights - The approval of L3 level conditional autonomous driving vehicles marks a significant milestone in China's intelligent connected vehicle industry, allowing two models from Changan and Jidu to conduct road trials in designated areas of Beijing and Chongqing [2][7]. - The core feature of L3 autonomous driving is that the system can perform all dynamic driving tasks under specific conditions without the driver needing to monitor continuously, which may shift accident liability from drivers to manufacturers [7]. - The intelligent driving industry is transitioning from a dual-driven model of policy and technology to a four-dimensional resonance involving policy, infrastructure, commerce, and globalization, with L3 level autonomous driving signaling strong commercial opportunities [7]. Industry Overview - The computer industry consists of 338 listed companies with a total market capitalization of 57,020.82 billion and a circulating market capitalization of 51,679.82 billion [4]. - The absolute performance of the industry over the past 1 month, 6 months, and 12 months is -3.6%, 19.5%, and 12.7%, respectively, while the relative performance is -1.9%, 1.7%, and -3.0% [5]. Investment Recommendations - Suggested companies to focus on include Horizon Robotics, Hesai Technology, Suton Juchuang, Pony.ai, WeRide, Desay SV, Zhongke Chuangda, Jingwei Hengrun, Siwei Map, Hezhima Intelligent, Qianfang Technology, Wanjie Technology, Neusoft Group, Ruiming Technology, Guangting Information, and Jinli Technology [7].

行业研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 航空行业 2025 年 11 月数据点评 国内客座率同比增幅继续维持，国际供需加速 推荐（维持） 恢复 ❑ 航司 11 月数据分析： 11 月：ASK 同比：春秋(15.6%) > 南航(8.7%) > 东航(6.5%) > 吉祥(6.1%) > 国 航(4.9%)，RPK 同比：春秋(18.0%) > 南航(10.4%) > 东航(10.4%) > 国航 (10.1%) > 吉祥(8.9%)； 1~11 月累计：ASK 同比：春秋(12.0%) > 东航(6.9%) > 南航(6.1%) > 国航 (3.3%) > 吉祥(2.3%) ，RPK 同比：春秋(12.0%) > 东航(10.9%) > 南航(8.0%) > 国航(5.6%) > 吉祥(3.4%)。 1)国内线：11 月：ASK 同比：春秋(16.3%) > 南航(5.6%) > 国航(3.9%) > 东航 (2.1%) > 吉祥(-0.5%)，RPK 同比：春秋(17.9%) > 国航(7.5%) > 南航(7.4%) > 东航(5.1%) > 吉祥(0.8%)； 1~11 月累计：ASK 同比：春秋(8.1%) ...

Group 1: Supply and Demand Analysis - The supply-demand gap for the midstream sector improved, with the demand-investment growth rate difference rising to 7.6% in November from 6.4% in October[1] - Midstream demand growth was 8.9% in November, down from 9.3% in October, while midstream investment growth fell to 1.3%[3] - The demand-investment growth rate difference for midstream has been increasing since May 2024 and turned positive in March 2025[3] Group 2: Future Projections - Historical data suggests that the midstream demand-investment growth rate difference is likely to remain positive, indicating potential price stabilization in the next two years[2] - The midstream PPI (Producer Price Index) is expected to stop declining and start rising, with a notable month-on-month increase of 0.04% in November, the first positive change since June 2024[4] - If the midstream PPI stabilizes, the year-on-year PPI is likely to continue rising, positively impacting midstream ROE (Return on Equity)[4] Group 3: Economic Data Overview - November's industrial value-added growth rate was 4.8%, with a slight month-on-month increase of 0.44%[20] - Retail sales growth in November was 1.3%, down from 2.9% in October, indicating weak consumer demand[22] - Real estate sales area decreased by 17.3% year-on-year in November, showing ongoing challenges in the property market[27]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for the automotive industry [2]. Core Insights - Global light vehicle sales in October reached approximately 7.9 million units, a year-on-year increase of 2.6% and a month-on-month increase of 0.5%. However, overseas sales totaled about 4.77 million units, showing a year-on-year decline of 0.4% and a month-on-month decline of 1.5% [2]. - North American sales were 1.56 million units, down 5.0% year-on-year but up 1.1% month-on-month. European sales were approximately 1.48 million units, up 2.9% year-on-year but down 7.5% month-on-month. In contrast, Chinese sales reached 3.13 million units, up 7.6% year-on-year and 3.7% month-on-month [2]. - The report anticipates that overseas light vehicle sales will reach 55.88 million units in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 1.3%, and 56.14 million units in 2026, a year-on-year increase of 0.5% [2]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry: Sales, Exchange Rates, Freight - Global light vehicle sales data indicates a mixed performance across regions, with North America and Europe facing declines while China shows growth [2][5]. - The report highlights the impact of exchange rates and freight costs on the automotive industry, noting a downward trend in the CCFI (China Container Freight Index) [24]. 2. Market Competition - The competitive landscape is analyzed, showing the market shares of major automotive groups, including Toyota, Volkswagen, and BYD, with a focus on their performance in the global market [28][29]. - The report also discusses the dynamics of the global new energy vehicle market, emphasizing the growth of companies like BYD and Tesla [33][34]. 3. Export Situation of Automotive and Parts Companies - The report provides insights into the export performance of domestic automotive manufacturers, highlighting the monthly growth rates of narrow passenger vehicle exports [39][40]. - It lists companies with significant overseas revenue, indicating their reliance on international markets [42].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - As of December 12, 2025, the convertible bond's 100 - yuan fitted premium rate has risen to 31.82%. With the valuation reaching historical highs and continuing to fluctuate, there are doubts about the applicability of past curve - fitting methods in the current high - price and high - valuation market. The algorithm for the fitted premium rate may need to be re - explored [1][10]. - The convexity of the fitted premium rate curve has increased. The right - shift of the parity indicates a structural difference in the convertible bond market. High - parity convertible bonds have relatively stable valuations, and as parity decreases, the valuation premium rises faster, causing the convexity of the curve to strengthen. The change in parity may lead to deviations in the calculated 100 - yuan premium rate [1][15]. - The distribution of the conversion premium rate is more extreme. The low - parity group has a steeper slope of premium rate increase, and the high - parity group's premium rate has nearly doubled compared to the end of 2024, while the medium - parity group shows relatively small fluctuations. This requires a change in the function form for curve fitting [2][17]. - When the parity is changing, the fitting interval should be widened, especially towards high - parity. The fitting function form may be adjusted to an exponential form, which can better reflect the premium rate distribution in the high - parity range and is suitable for some low - price and high - valuation samples. Considering the expected positive performance of the equity market in 2026, attention can be paid to such fitting method adjustments [2][3]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Fitted Premium Rate Curve Shape Changes, Pay Attention to Structural Differences - **Valuation and Parity Changes**: As of December 12, 2025, the convertible bond's 100 - yuan fitted premium rate has reached 31.82%, up 11.14 pct from the beginning of the year, at the 98.90% historical quantile since 2017. The high - parity proportion has increased, and the traditional curve - fitting method may not be applicable [10]. - **Convexity of the Fitted Curve**: Compared with the end of 2024, the parity has shifted to the right. High - parity convertible bonds have stable valuations, and as parity decreases, the valuation premium rises faster, strengthening the convexity of the curve. The change in parity may cause the model to deviate, resulting in inaccurate 100 - yuan premium rate calculations [15]. - **Extreme Distribution of Premium Rate**: The low - parity (70 - 90) group has a steeper premium rate increase slope, and the high - parity (110 - 130) group's premium rate has nearly doubled compared to the end of 2024. The medium - parity group has relatively small fluctuations. The traditional cubic inverse function is not suitable for the current market, so the function form needs to be changed [2][17]. - **Consider Extreme Parity Values**: The common 70 - 130 fitting interval is less applicable when the parity rises. An exponential function (Y = A×e^(-k(x - B))+C) can be considered for fitting, as it has advantages at both ends and can better reflect the market distribution [2][19]. 3.2 Market Review: Convertible Bonds Rose Slightly Weekly, Valuation Remained Basically Flat 3.2.1 Weekly Market Quotes: Convertible Bond Market Rose Slightly, Most Equity Sectors Pulled Back - **Index Performance**: Last week, most major stock indices rose. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.34%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.84%, the ChiNext Index rose 2.74%, the SSE 50 Index fell 0.25%, the CSI 1000 Index rose 0.39%, and the CSI Convertible Bond Index rose 0.20% [26]. - **Industry and Concept Performance**: In the Shenwan primary industry index, most equity markets pulled back last week. Communication, national defense and military industry, electronics, machinery and equipment, and power equipment led the gains; household appliances, basic chemicals, textile and apparel, real estate, and steel led the losses. The convertible bond market had mixed performance, with building materials, national defense and military industry, communication, automobiles, and power equipment leading the gains, and food and beverage, media, basic chemicals, commercial retail, and coal leading the losses. Among popular concepts, some concepts rose and some fell [30][33]. 3.2.2 Valuation Performance: Premium Rates of Convertible Bonds of Most Ratings and Sizes Rose - **Closing Price and Premium Rate**: The weighted average closing price of convertible bonds was 132.26, down 0.01% from the previous Friday. The closing price of equity - biased convertible bonds was 194.10 yuan, up 2.02% from last Friday; the closing price of bond - biased convertible bonds was 119.15 yuan, down 0.34% from last Friday; the closing price of balanced convertible bonds was 128.77 yuan, down 0.10% from last Friday. The proportion of the 120 - 130 (including 130) interval in the closing price distribution increased significantly. The price median was 130.59 yuan, down 0.21% from the previous Friday. The 100 - yuan parity fitted conversion premium rate of the convertible bond market was 31.82%, down 0.01 pct from last Friday. In terms of ratings and sizes, the premium rates of most convertible bonds rose [35]. 3.3 Terms and Supply: 2 Convertible Bonds Announced Forced Redemption, Total Pending Issuance Scale About 125 Billion 3.3.1 Terms: Last Week, 2 Convertible Bonds Announced Forced Redemption, 3 Convertible Bonds' Boards Proposed Downward Revisions - **Forced Redemption**: As of December 12, Yingbo and Hugong convertible bonds announced early redemption; Bojun convertible bond announced no early redemption; Xiangfeng, Kaisheng, Jinzhong, Furong, and Bo 23 convertible bonds announced that they were expected to meet the forced redemption conditions [4][55]. - **Downward Revision**: Last week, Bengang, Jinlang Zhuan 02, and Hongchuan convertible bonds issued announcements of the board's proposal for a downward revision of the conversion price. No convertible bonds announced the results of the downward revision. 15 convertible bonds announced no downward revision, and 11 convertible bonds announced that they were expected to trigger a downward revision [4][55]. 3.3.2 Primary Market: Last Week, Tianzhun, Shenyu, and Aohong Convertible Bonds Were Issued, Total Pending Issuance Scale About 125 Billion - **Issuance and Listing**: Last week, Tianzhun, Shenyu, and Aohong convertible bonds were issued, with a total scale of 19.52 billion yuan. Maolai and Ruike convertible bonds were listed, with a scale of 15.63 billion yuan. Dingjie convertible bond was listed on December 15, with a scale of 8.28 billion yuan [5][58]. - **Pending Issuance**: Last week, there were no new board proposals. Three companies passed the shareholders' meeting, two passed the issuance review committee's approval, and one was newly approved by the CSRC, an increase of +0, +3, +0, +1 respectively compared to the same period last year. As of December 12, four listed companies obtained convertible bond issuance approvals, with a proposed issuance scale of 41.67 billion yuan. Eight listed companies passed the issuance review committee, with a total scale of 83.14 billion yuan [60][65].

Liquidity - The supply side of funds is expanding, with net inflows of leveraged funds increasing to 196 billion CNY, placing it in the 75th percentile over the past three years[10] - The demand side is contracting, with equity financing dropping to 72 billion CNY, which is in the 41st percentile over the past three years[10] - Southbound funds experienced a net outflow of 31.1 billion CNY, marking the first net outflow in six months[41] Trading Congestion - The trading heat for the communication sector increased by 24 percentage points to 76%, while the military industry rose by 23 percentage points to 89%[2] - The chemical sector saw a decline of 40 percentage points to 47%, and the photovoltaic sector decreased by 24 percentage points to 56%[2] Investor Sentiment - Retail investors saw a net inflow of 112.4 billion CNY, up by 166.6 billion CNY from the previous value, placing it in the 61.5th percentile over the past five years[2] - The search interest for A-shares on social media has returned to a high level, indicating increased investor engagement[2] Fundraising and Buybacks - The total amount of stock buybacks fell to 9.5 billion CNY, down from 57.7 billion CNY, which is in the 21st percentile over the past three years[25] - The total equity financing amount was 71.7 billion CNY, with IPOs contributing 12.7 billion CNY and refinancing accounting for 59.1 billion CNY[28]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the liquor industry, specifically highlighting the brands Moutai and Wuliangye as key players [2][33]. Core Insights - The recent decline in high-end liquor prices has raised concerns in the market, with the liquor sector experiencing a 7% drop in December. Moutai's price fell from 1575 yuan to around 1500 yuan, while Wuliangye's price decreased from 800-810 yuan to 780 yuan [8][11]. - Moutai is implementing measures to restore channel confidence, with prices rebounding to around 1600 yuan after a significant drop. The company plans to control supply to stabilize prices and support distributor profits [15][20]. - Wuliangye is enhancing subsidies and adjusting pricing strategies to support distributors, including a significant discount on its products to reduce financial pressure on channels [29][30]. - The report anticipates that the liquor industry will prioritize volume over price in the coming year, with sales performance being crucial for recovery [32][33]. Summary by Sections Industry Supply and Demand - The industry is facing a critical need for supply and demand rebalancing, with Moutai's price drop signaling significant market pressures. The report notes that the supply-demand mismatch has persisted, leading to a comprehensive imbalance [11][15]. Moutai's Strategy - Moutai is focusing on controlling supply to alleviate pressure on distributors, with plans to halt the release of unfulfilled quotas for 2025. The company aims to stabilize market order and ensure healthy operations [20][24]. - The report highlights that Moutai's pricing strategy is crucial for maintaining industry standards, with expectations of a gradual decline in performance metrics due to market conditions [28][29]. Wuliangye's Approach - Wuliangye is actively implementing multiple strategies to support channel profits, including significant discounts and promotional rewards for distributors. The company is also enhancing digital management to improve terminal control [29][30]. - The report emphasizes that Wuliangye's willingness to adapt and reduce prices is a positive step in addressing current market challenges [29]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests capitalizing on the pre-holiday recovery in the liquor market, recommending Moutai as a priority for investment due to its lower risk of performance decline. Other companies to watch include Gujing and Wuliangye, which are expected to confirm performance bottoms and drive growth through market share [33].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the industry, expecting the industry index to rise more than 5% over the next 3-6 months compared to the benchmark index [39]. Core Insights - DeepSeek-V3.2 has achieved leading reasoning performance among open-source models, reaching a score of 93.1% in the AIME 2025 mathematics competition, closely following GPT-5 at 94.6% [10][14]. - The DeepSeek-V3.2-Speciale version focuses on extreme reasoning and has won gold medals in prestigious competitions such as IMO 2025 and ICPC World Finals 2025, showcasing its advanced capabilities [13][14]. - The introduction of DSA technology in DeepSeek-V3.2 significantly enhances both efficiency and performance, reducing computational complexity from O(L²) to O(Lk) [19][21]. - DeepSeek-V3.2 is the first model to integrate deep thinking with tool usage, improving its reasoning generalization ability through innovative training methods [21][25]. Summary by Sections DeepSeek-V3.2: Redefining Open-Source Model Performance - DeepSeek-V3.2 was officially released on December 1, 2025, and aims to balance reasoning ability with output length, making it suitable for everyday tasks [10]. - The model's performance in benchmark tests is comparable to that of leading proprietary models, demonstrating its competitive edge in the open-source domain [10][12]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on specific sectors within AI, including domestic computing power and enterprise-level services, highlighting companies such as Cambricon, Alibaba, and Hikvision [27][28]. - Various application scenarios are identified, including industrial, military, medical, and legal sectors, with specific companies recommended for investment [28].