证 券 研 究 报 告 偏股型公募新发创今年3月以来新高 ——流动性&交易拥挤度&投资者温度计周报 2025年11月4日 证券分析师：姚佩 执业编号：S0360522120004 邮箱：yaopei@hcyjs.com 联系人：朱冬墨 邮箱：zhudongmo@hcyjs.com 本报告由华创证券有限责任公司编制 卖的出价或询价。本报告所载信息均为个人观点，并不构成对所涉及证券的个人投资建议。 请仔细阅读PPT后部分的分析师声明及免责声明。 @2021 华创 版权所有 核心结论 证 券 研 究 报 告 • 资金流动性： 证监会审核华创证券投资咨询业务资格批文号：证监许可（2009）1210 号 2 股市八路资金雷达图(近三年分位数,%) 股票型ETF净申购 证监会审核华创证券投资咨询业务资格批文号：证监许可（2009）1210 号 3 数据来源：Wind，华创证券 注：公募、两融、外资、ETF、产业资本、自媒体热度为周频数据(截至2025/10/26)、私募(截至2025/8)与新开户(截至2025/9)为月频数据，其中自媒体热度采用近一年日频分位数。 目录 资金流动性：偏股型公募新发创今年3月以来新高 01 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Jiufeng Energy (605090) [2][9] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 15.61 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 8.5%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.24 billion yuan, down 19.1% year-on-year [2] - The report highlights the impact of temporary costs on quarterly performance, particularly due to factors such as delayed shipping schedules, extreme weather affecting LPG transportation, and transitional maintenance of newly acquired facilities [9] - Looking ahead to Q4, the report anticipates improved performance in the LPG business as negative factors from Q3 are expected to be resolved, leading to a recovery in profitability [9] - The collaboration on the Xinjiang coal-to-gas project is viewed as a significant opportunity for the company's transformation, with all necessary approvals in place and project progress expected to accelerate [9] - The report projects net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to be 1.592 billion yuan, 1.767 billion yuan, and 2.064 billion yuan respectively, reflecting the potential growth from the coal-to-gas project [9] Financial Summary - For 2025, the company is expected to generate total revenue of 21.56 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of -2.2% [4] - The projected net profit for 2025 is 1.592 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decrease of 5.4% [4] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is estimated at 2.29 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 14 [4] - The target price for the stock is set at 45.72 yuan, compared to the current price of 33.06 yuan [5]

公司研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 业绩稳健增长，平台型龙头优势持续显现 目标价：502.5 元 事项： 评论： [ReportFinancialIndex] 主要财务指标 | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万) | 29,838 | 39,509 | 50,146 | 60,221 | | 同比增速(%) | 35.1% | 32.4% | 26.9% | 20.1% | | 归母净利润(百万) | 5,621 | 6,663 | 9,100 | 12,068 | | 同比增速(%) | 44.2% | 18.5% | 36.6% | 32.6% | | 每股盈利(元) | 7.76 | 9.20 | 12.56 | 16.66 | | 市盈率(倍) | 52 | 44 | 32 | 24 | | 市净率(倍) | 9.3 | 7.8 | 6.3 | 5.1 | 资料来源：公司公告，华创证券预测 注：股价为 2025 年 11 月 3 日收盘价 半导体设备 2025 年 11 月 04 日 ...

宏观研究 2、从趋势看，近两年限额以下商品消费（不含餐饮）有改善迹象。2023 年两 年平均增速为 2.7%，2024 年为 3.55%，2025 年前三季度为 4.24%。9 月当月 同比为 3.77%，预计 10 月增速回升至 5%左右。 3、从空间与体量看，2019 年限额以下商品消费（不含餐饮）增速为 10.6%， 2025 年前三季度为 4.24%，增速尚有较大回升空间。从体量看，2024 年社零 中，52.2%来自限额以下商品消费（不含餐饮）。若其回升，对社零意义重大。 4、从政策来看，或持续加强普惠性、基础性、兜底性民生建设。例如，2025 年的生育补贴、免费学前教育、城乡居民养老金提升等。"十五五"规划来看， 或继续加力投入。如"合理提高公共服务支出占财政支出比重、稳步推进基本 公共服务均等化、逐步提高城乡居民基础养老金、发挥育儿补贴和个人所得税 抵扣政策作用，有效降低家庭生育养育教育成本、稳步扩大免费教育范围"。 ❖ 一、物价：预计 CPI 同比降幅收窄，PPI 环比或走弱 证 券 研 究 报 告 供需有待 【宏观快评】 限额以下消费或回升——10月经济数据前瞻 ❖ 核心观点：展望 10 月 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 191.86 CNY [2][9]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 1.244 billion CNY for Q3 2025, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 30.28% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 19.97%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 286 million CNY, showing a slight decline of 0.71% year-over-year but a 5.14% increase quarter-over-quarter [2][9]. - The company is focusing on opportunities in AI-driven advanced packaging, with significant investments in R&D and production capacity to enhance its core competitiveness. The market share of its CMP products is increasing, and the company is expanding its service offerings [9]. - The company's gross margin for Q3 2025 was 40.97%, down 4.11 percentage points year-over-year, primarily due to lower margins on new products and increased R&D expenses. The net profit margin was 22.99%, down 7.17 percentage points year-over-year [9]. - The company is actively developing new products and technologies to meet the demands of the semiconductor industry, particularly in advanced packaging and chip stacking technologies [9]. Financial Summary - Total revenue projections for the company are as follows: 3,406 million CNY in 2024, 4,571 million CNY in 2025, 5,903 million CNY in 2026, and 7,448 million CNY in 2027, with year-over-year growth rates of 35.8%, 34.2%, 29.1%, and 26.2% respectively [4][10]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 1,023 million CNY in 2024, 1,184 million CNY in 2025, 1,507 million CNY in 2026, and 1,863 million CNY in 2027, with growth rates of 41.4%, 15.7%, 27.3%, and 23.7% respectively [4][10]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are expected to increase from 2.90 CNY in 2024 to 5.27 CNY in 2027, reflecting a strong growth trajectory [4][10].

证 券 研 究 报 告 恒玄科技（688608）2025 年三季报点评 强推（维持） Q3 收入稳健增长，可穿戴 SoC 龙头迎端侧新机遇 事项： ❖ 公司发布2025年三季报：公司2025年三季度实现营收9.95亿元（YoY+5.66%， QoQ+5.42%），实现归母净利润 1.97 亿元（YoY+39.11%，QoQ+72.19%），实 现扣非归母净利润 1.79 亿元（YoY+44.85%，QoQ+67.37%）。 评论： [ReportFinancialIndex] 主要财务指标 | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万) | 3,263 | 4,306 | 5,832 | 7,548 | | 同比增速(%) | 49.9% | 31.9% | 35.5% | 29.4% | | 归母净利润(百万) | 460 | 741 | 1,220 | 1,611 | | 同比增速(%) | 272.5% | 61.0% | 64.6% | 32.0% | | 每股盈利(元) | 2.73 | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for Guangzhou Restaurant (603043) with a target price of 22.98 CNY [1][7]. Core Views - The company reported Q3 2025 revenue of 2.293 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 4.7%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 410 million CNY, up 5.33% year-on-year. For the first nine months of 2025, revenue reached 4.285 billion CNY, growing 4.43% year-on-year, while net profit was 449 million CNY, a slight increase of 0.31% year-on-year. The performance in Q3 showed significant recovery compared to the first half of the year, driven by effective marketing activities during peak seasons [1][7]. Financial Performance Summary - Total revenue projections for 2024A, 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E are 5,124 million CNY, 5,409 million CNY, 5,978 million CNY, and 6,560 million CNY respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 4.6%, 5.6%, 10.5%, and 9.7% [3][8]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 494 million CNY in 2024A, increasing to 537 million CNY in 2025E, 594 million CNY in 2026E, and 674 million CNY in 2027E, with corresponding growth rates of -10.3%, 8.7%, 10.7%, and 13.5% [3][8]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) is projected to rise from 0.87 CNY in 2024A to 1.19 CNY in 2027E [3][8]. Business Segment Performance - The company’s restaurant business generated revenue of 1.131 billion CNY in the first nine months of 2025, up 3.88% year-on-year, while the food business revenue was 3.081 billion CNY, growing 4.80% year-on-year. The sales from other products amounted to 40 million CNY [7]. - The mooncake series, frozen foods, and other products achieved revenues of 1.458 billion CNY, 786 million CNY, and 838 million CNY respectively, with other products seeing a significant increase of 15.24% due to innovative product launches [7]. Cost Management and Financial Health - The company has strengthened cost control, with a Q3 2025 gross margin of 39.79%, an increase of 0.30 percentage points year-on-year. Sales and management expenses for the first nine months of 2025 were 390 million CNY and 306 million CNY, reflecting year-on-year changes of +6.91% and -7.61% respectively [7]. - Accounts receivable increased significantly to 520 million CNY, up 341.67% from the beginning of the year [7]. Investment Recommendations - The company’s dual business model of "restaurant + food" is progressing well, with a solid foundation in the restaurant and mooncake sectors. The report suggests that the company can maintain strong operational capabilities and cost control during the industry's supply elimination phase. The forecast for net profit for 2025, 2026, and 2027 has been adjusted to 540 million CNY, 590 million CNY, and 670 million CNY respectively, with corresponding growth rates of 8.7%, 10.7%, and 13.5% [7].

证 券 研 究 报 告 华凯易佰（300592）2025 年三季报点评 推荐（维持） 调整阵痛持续，库存优化成效显著 目标价：13.25 元 事项： ❖ 公司发布 2025 年三季报：2025 年前三季度公司实现收入 67.40 亿元，同比 +10.21%；归母净利润 0.49 亿元，同比-73.90%；扣非归母利润 0.35 亿元，同 比-81.12%。单 2025Q3 实现收入 22.04 亿元，同比-15.10%；归母净利润 0.13 亿元，同比-76.87%；扣非归母利润 0.11 亿元，同比-80.55%。 评论： [ReportFinancialIndex] 主要财务指标 | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万) | 9,022 | 10,092 | 11,488 | 12,771 | | 同比增速(%) | 38.4% | 11.9% | 13.8% | 11.2% | | 归母净利润(百万) | 170 | 98 | 214 | 298 | | 同比增速(%) | -48.8% ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 杰普特（688025）2025 年三季报点评 推荐（维持） 三季度业绩高增，多点布局成效渐显 目标价：185.28 元 事项： 公司发布 2025 年三季报：前三季度公司收入 15.09 亿元，同比+41.02%，归母 净利润 2.04 亿元，同比+97.30%，毛利率 40.58%，同比+0.38pct。Q3 收入 6.28 亿元，同比+31.90%，环比+16.83%，归母净利润 1.09 亿元，同比+123.78%， 环比+83.53%。 评论： 公司研究 激光加工设备 2025 年 11 月 04 日 | | | [ReportFinancialIndex] 主要财务指标 | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万) | 1,454 | 2,037 | 2,818 | 3,912 | | 同比增速(%) | 18.6% | 40.1% | 38.3% | 38.8% | | 归母净利润(百万) | 133 | 259 | 366 | 506 | | 同比增速(%) ...

宏观研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【每周经济观察】 或需聚焦 A 股的境外盈利 主要观点：本篇报告尝试对 A 股的境内外盈利（以毛利代替）进行拆分。我们发 现，制造业中的装备制造业，毛利来自海外的占比高，上半年毛利的增速来自海外 的贡献比例大，同时，三季报业绩表明装备制造业利润继续增长，或与海外关系较 大。从今年 A 股非金融企业的市值贡献来看，装备制造业贡献了增长的 70%。因 而，或需重视海外业务贡献的毛利对 A 股利润、A 股市值的驱动。 一、数据处理说明 希望估算上市公司盈利中来自海外的部分。但分地区的数据披露，只到中报或 年报的毛利这一步，我们观察毛利的海外占比，又由于并非所有上市公司都披 露海外毛利数据，我们做如下处理：1）首先，基于上市公司披露的境外收入， 得到上市公司来自海外的收入数据。2）其次，基于披露境外毛利的上市公司 （称为样本企业），得到样本企业的海外毛利。3）基于样本企业的海外收入， 将其与全部上市公司的境外收入做对比，可以线性外推全部上市公司的境外 毛利。即：假设未披露海外毛利的企业海外业务毛利率与披露海外毛利的企业 海外业务毛利率相同。4）全部上市公司的境外毛利占比 = 上市公司 ...