证 券 研 究 报 告 中信银行（601998）2025 年业绩快报点评 推荐（维持） 营收增速拐点向上，资产质量稳中向好 目标价：10.58 元/9.70 港元 事项： 1 月 14 日晚，中信银行披露 25 年业绩快报，预计 2025 全年实现营业收入 2124.75 亿元，同比降幅收窄至-0.5%（1-3Q25 为-3.5%）；营业利润 836.74 亿 元，同比增长 3.4%（1-3Q25 为 4.7%）；归属于上市公司股东的净利润 706.18 亿元，同比增长 3.0%（1-3Q25 为 3.0%）。不良率环比略降 1bp 至 1.15%，拨 备覆盖率环比下降 0.6pct 至 203.6%。 评论： [ReportFinancialIndex] 主要财务指标 | | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万) | 213,646 | 212,396 | 220,228 | 232,734 | | 同比增速(%) | 3.76% | -0.59% | 3.69% | 5.68% | | 归母净利 ...

宏观研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 为什么不是降息的前置限制？其一，剔除关税的影响后（约 0.5%），CPI 同比 仅小幅高于 2%。目前来看，关税冲击或已见顶，若没有额外贸易政策扰动， 核心商品通胀继续回升可能不大。其二，食品和能源通胀反弹概率较低。不考 虑极端天气扰动，为降低食品价格，特朗普政府已采取相关有助于降价的措施。 供过于求背景下，油价低位震荡。其三，目前就业市场尚未呈现明确的修复趋 势，超级核心服务和住房通胀仍在逐步下行。 【宏观快评】 财政或比关税重要 ——2026年美国通胀上行风险分析 主要观点 2025 年的美国通胀，关税外生冲击的扰动 2025 年四个季度美国通胀呈倒 N 形走势。CPI 同比分别为 2.7%、2.4%、2.9%、 2.7%。核心 CPI 同比分别为 3.1%、2.8%、3.1%、2.6%。 回顾 2025 年，美国 CPI 同比在 2-3 季度经历了一轮温和回升，主要驱动因素 在于核心商品和能源，前者由关税推动，后者则是基数影响。关税影响下，通 胀回升相对温和的原因或包括：第一，关税的价格影响相对可控。一方面，随 着贸易谈判逐步落地，美国整体关税税率的上行幅度远不如市场初 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Neutral" rating to the company with a target price of 11.18 CNY [2][11]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the company's core competitive advantages built on the "three pillars" of wealth management, investment banking, and investment management, which are expected to drive revenue growth [8][9]. - The company has shown significant recovery in revenue and profitability, achieving record highs in recent quarters, driven by active brokerage and proprietary trading businesses [35][33]. Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to grow from 3,920 million CNY in 2024 to 5,870 million CNY in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 23% in 2024 and 33% in 2025 [3]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from 728 million CNY in 2024 to 1,512 million CNY in 2027, reflecting a growth rate of 71% in 2024 and 78% in 2025 [3]. - Earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from 0.28 CNY in 2024 to 0.58 CNY in 2027, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio decreasing from 33.4 in 2024 to 16.2 in 2027 [3]. Company Overview - The company, Huaxi Securities, is a comprehensive securities firm rooted in Southwest China, focusing on wealth management, investment banking, and investment management as its main business pillars [15][18]. - It has a strong shareholder structure, with significant stakes held by local state-owned enterprises, ensuring stable control [18][19]. Business Analysis - The brokerage and proprietary trading segments are the main drivers of revenue, with brokerage income accounting for 47.2% of total revenue in 2025, significantly above the industry average [27][51]. - The company has seen a substantial increase in client funds, reaching a historical high of 330.9 million CNY, with a market share of 1.7% [58][60]. - The investment banking segment has faced challenges due to regulatory issues but is expected to recover as the company focuses on debt financing and restructuring its operations [62][64]. Market Position - The company has gradually regained market share, with total revenue reaching 34.9 billion CNY in the first three quarters of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 56.5% [33][35]. - The asset scale has also grown, with total assets and net assets increasing by 17.3% and 6.2% year-on-year, respectively, providing a solid foundation for future business expansion [33][34].

证 券 研 究 报 告 【点评报告】 量化看市场系列之三："看线宝"小程序上线 ❖ 摘要 自 2023 年 1 月开启 K 线量化研究以来，我们在这场深度的探索中已走过近一 千个昼夜。我们始终坚信：唯有在一个角度上的极致深耕，方能孕育出真正触 及市场本质的投资策略。 在过去的三年里，我们的研究路径经历了四个核心阶段的跨越： 但由于部分客户 IP 限制与浏览器问题，形态云在部分客户的电脑上无法正常 显示，我们将形态云的核心服务搬运到微信小程序上，采用 WXML/WXSS、 小程序框架，调用原生组件，启动速度快，操作流畅，体验接近原生系统，并 极易与社交场景结合（如分享给好友/群），也完美连接线上线下（扫码即用）。 我们构建了"看线宝"小程序。 "看线宝"小程序内置了个股、可转债、期货、ETF 形态量化分析、ETF 智能 择时与 ETF 轮动分析等等。深度集成 ECharts (WeChat 适配版)，针对 K 线形 态标注、多轴联动（股价与净值线）进行了深度定制。并采用微信最新官方隐 私授权指引，结合 OAuth 2.0 授权流程进行手机号加密解析。 ❖ 风险提示： 数据基于历史，不代表未来。 金融工程 点评报 ...

Group 1 - The key industries for the Shanghai Composite Index to break through 5000 points in 2026 are electronics, non-bank financials, non-ferrous metals, banking, military industry, machinery, and automobiles [10][12][15] - In the optimistic PE + neutral EPS scenario, the EPS growth rates for 2025 are projected to be 26% for electronics, 46% for non-bank financials, and 31% for non-ferrous metals, with expected growth rates of 42%, 53%, and 36% respectively in 2026 under neutral assumptions [15][12][10] - The banking sector, despite lower EPS growth, holds a significant weight of 17.1% in the index, indicating its potential to contribute to index growth if valuations or earnings improve [15][12] Group 2 - The insurance sector is expected to benefit from a surge in short-term premium income and improved mid-term investment returns, driven by a significant amount of high-interest deposits maturing in 2026 [18][13] - The brokerage sector shows a significant valuation divergence, with a PE of 18.2 times and a PB of 1.41 times, indicating potential for valuation recovery due to strong fundamentals and policy catalysts [21][23] - The electronics industry has seen a substantial increase in its market weight, with its share in the Shanghai Composite Index rising from 1.6% at the end of 2015 to 11.5% by the end of 2025, supported by trends in AI and semiconductor industries [24][4] Group 3 - The non-ferrous metals sector is expected to experience performance elasticity due to tight supply conditions and increased demand from AI and energy sectors, potentially leading to price increases in 2026 [25][5] - The high-end manufacturing sector is anticipated to expand, with strong performances expected in commercial aerospace and humanoid robotics, driven by policy support and technological advancements [29][6] - Historical data suggests that the 2015 bull market was significantly driven by financial and real estate sectors, indicating that the current bull market may similarly rely on technology and manufacturing sectors to reach 5000 points [30][7]

Group 1 - The report indicates that the U.S. economic cycle is marked by a shift in the pricing model of dollar assets, transitioning from economic growth to inflation levels following the inversion of the U.S. Treasury yield curve [2][5][12] - The imposition of tariffs in 2018 and 2025 has led to fluctuations in the dollar asset pricing model, with high tariffs impacting demand for U.S. Treasury bonds more significantly than the strength of the dollar [2][5][28] - The demand for U.S. Treasury bonds from overseas investors is driven by yield spreads and duration needs, while the demand for U.S. equities is influenced by differences in labor productivity due to intangible asset investments [2][6][28] Group 2 - Over the past 20 years, the demand for overseas dollar assets has shifted from risk diversification to a focus on labor productivity differences, which may lead to significant asset price bubbles [3][6] - The report highlights that the private sector's balance sheets and cash flows have improved, supporting actual consumption demand, which alters the macroeconomic risks faced by the U.S. economy [5][27] - The report emphasizes that the marginal risk switch is hindered, leading to a new pricing model for dollar assets that oscillates between unexpected inflation risks and unexpected economic growth downturn risks [5][27] Group 3 - The impact of tariffs on the pricing of dollar assets is significant, as they are seen as a demand shock that hinders the return of offshore dollars, particularly affecting the demand for long-term U.S. Treasury bonds [28][31] - The report notes that the structure of overseas demand for U.S. Treasury bonds has shifted from official institutions to the private sector, indicating a change in the dynamics of dollar asset demand [34][35] - The report also discusses how the imposition of tariffs has a more pronounced negative effect on the demand for U.S. equities compared to U.S. Treasury bonds, as it raises costs for the private sector and increases recession risks [42][44] Group 4 - The evolution of overseas dollar asset demand shows that private sector investors have increasingly replaced official institutions as the main holders of U.S. assets, driven by the pursuit of higher returns and duration supply [52][70] - The report highlights that the labor productivity differences between the U.S. and other developed economies have led to a sustained increase in overseas investment in U.S. equities, as U.S. companies benefit from higher profit margins [70][75] - The report concludes that the shift in overseas dollar asset demand reflects a correction of previous trends where emerging markets diversified away from dollar assets, returning to a focus on labor productivity differences [77][78]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Today, the convertible bond market experienced a correction, with valuations compressing on a环比 basis. The CSI Convertible Bond Index decreased by 1.10%环比 [1]. - The large - cap value style was relatively dominant. Large - cap growth decreased by 0.54%环比, while large - cap value rose by 0.25%环比 [1]. - The trading sentiment in the convertible bond market weakened. The trading volume of the convertible bond market was 102.232 billion yuan, a环比 decrease of 5.32% [1]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market Main Index Performance - The CSI Convertible Bond Index closed at 515.07, down 1.10%环比, up 3.22% in the recent week, 7.02% in the recent month, and 4.71% since the beginning of 2025 [7]. - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4138.76, down 0.64%环比, up 2.87% in the recent week, 6.85% in the recent month, and 4.28% since the beginning of 2025 [7]. - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14169.40, down 1.37%环比, up 2.46% in the recent week, 7.77% in the recent month, and 4.76% since the beginning of 2025 [7]. Market Fund Performance - The trading volume of the convertible bond market was 102.232 billion yuan, and the total trading volume of the Wind All - A Index was 3698.811 billion yuan. The trading volume of the convertible bond market decreased by 5.32%环比, while that of the A - share market increased by 1.49%环比 [1][9]. - The net outflow of the main funds in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 128.654 billion yuan, and the yield of the 10 - year treasury bond decreased by 0.66bp环比 to 1.85% [1]. Convertible Bond Valuation - The fitted conversion premium rate of 100 - yuan par value was 35.83%, a环比 decrease of 1.44pct, and the overall weighted par value was 104.79 yuan, a环比 decrease of 1.15% [2]. - The price median of convertible bonds was 137.18 yuan, a环比 decrease of 1.38% [2]. - The proportion of high - price bonds above 130 yuan was 71.05%, a环比 decrease of 1.91pct, and the proportion of bonds in the 120 - 130 yuan range increased by 1.37pct环比 [2]. Industry Rotation - In the A - share market, the top three sectors with the largest declines were national defense and military industry (- 5.50%), electronics (- 3.30%), and communications (- 2.88%); the top three sectors with the largest increases were petroleum and petrochemicals (+ 1.62%), pharmaceutical biology (+ 1.21%), and non - ferrous metals (+ 0.91%) [3]. - In the convertible bond market, the top three sectors with the largest declines were national defense and military industry (- 5.24%), building materials (- 4.74%), and electronics (- 3.27%); the top three sectors with the largest increases were pharmaceutical biology (+ 0.54%), steel (+ 0.07%), and banks (+ 0.04%) [3]. - In terms of different styles, the closing prices of large - cycle, manufacturing, technology, large - consumption, and large - finance sectors decreased by 1.53%, 1.04%, 2.91%, 0.96%, and 0.96%环比 respectively; the conversion premium rates changed by - 0.42pct, - 0.2pct, + 0.74pct, - 0.3pct, and - 0.085pct环比 respectively; the conversion values decreased by 1.38%, 0.66%, 3.92%, 0.60%, and 0.84%环比 respectively; the pure bond premium rates decreased by 2.1pct, 1.5pct, 5.7pct, 1.3pct, and 1.2pct环比 respectively [3][4].

证 券 研 究 报 告 【资产配置快评】2026 年第 2 期 Riders on the Charts: 每周大类资产配置图 表精粹 ❖ 投资摘要： The art of fortification lies not in rules and systems, but only in good sense and experience. —Sebastien Le Prestre 多资产配置研究 资产配置快评 2026 年 01 月 13 日 邮箱：guozhongliang@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360520090002 相关研究报告 《资产配置快评 2026 年第 1 期：Riders on the Charts：每周大类资产配置图表精粹》 2026-01-06 《开年话躁动——总量"创"辩第 119 期》 2026-01-06 《资产配置快评 2025 年第 57 期：Riders on the Charts：每周大类资产配置图表精粹》 2025-12-29 《资产配置快评 2025 年第 56 期：Riders on the Charts：每周大类资产配置图表精粹》 2025-12-15 ...

产业研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 理财产品跟踪报告 2025 年第 15 期（12 月 15 日-12 月 28 日） 基金新发总规模收敛，保险产品结构性调整 银行理财产品： 根据普益标准数据，2025 年 12 月 15 日至 28 日双周内，理财市场新发理财产 品总计 1264 只，较上一期（12 月 1 日至 12 月 14 日）的 1202 只基本持平， 显示年末理财市场产品供给节奏保持稳定，未出现因季节性因素导致的显著收 缩或放量。银行理财产品市场延续了固收为主、理财公司主导、中短期限和低 门槛集中的结构性特征，结构分化依然显著。 按投资性质划分，固定收益类产品本期以 1195 只新发产品数量占比 94.54%， 占比略有下降（前值 98.5%），但保持了绝对主导地位；按机构类型划分，理 财公司仍为主流，本期发行产品 949 只，占比 75.08%；按投资起点划分，依 然是 1 元及以下占比最高，新发产品总数达 821 只（占比 64.95%），其次是 1 千元-1 万元（含）256 只（占比 20.25%）。反映了市场对稳健型理财产品的刚 性需求，以及产品门槛延续了普惠化、低起点的趋势。 基金产品 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the real estate sector [2] Core Insights - The real estate sector index increased by 5.1% in the second week of January 2026, ranking 11th among 31 primary industry sectors [8][10] - New housing transactions in 20 monitored cities saw a 37% year-on-year decrease, while the average daily transaction volume increased by 104% week-on-week [22][27] - The report highlights three main issues in the real estate market: declining new housing demand, unresolved inventory issues, and the negative impact of land finance on the economy [34][35] Summary by Sections Industry Basic Data - The total market capitalization of the real estate sector is approximately 12,626.37 billion [2] Policy News - In Shenyang, new policies were implemented to optimize housing fund loans, including extending the minimum down payment policy to December 31, 2026, and increasing the loan limit for new citizens and youth [18][19] - Shanghai emphasized creating a fair market competition environment through new regulations [18][19] Sales Data - In the second week, the average daily transaction volume for new homes in 20 cities was 21.8 million square meters, with total transactions of 153 million square meters [26][27] - The average daily transaction volume for second-hand homes in 11 cities was 30.3 million square meters, with total transactions of 212 million square meters [27][32] Financing - The report notes that most companies issuing bonds this week are local state-owned enterprises, with New Hope Real Estate issuing the largest amount of 8.8 billion [33] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on three areas to find alpha in the real estate market: precision in land acquisition for developers, stable assets like leading shopping centers, and leading real estate agencies [34][35]