证 券 研 究 报 告 拓荆科技（688072）2025 年三季报点评 强推（维持） 先进制程设备放量驱动业绩高增，积极把握 国产替代机遇 事项： ❖ 公司发布 2025 年三季报： 2025 年三季度公司实现营收 22.66 亿元 （ YoY+124.15% ， QoQ+81.94% ）， 实 现 归 母 净 利 润 4.62 亿 元 （ YoY+225.07%,QoQ+91.60% ）， 实 现 扣 非 归 母 净 利 润 4.20 亿 元 （YoY+822.50%，QoQ+92.27%）。 评论： ❖ 风险提示：中美贸易摩擦加剧；上游零部件供应短缺；下游扩产不及预期 [ReportFinancialIndex] 主要财务指标 | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万) | 4,103 | 6,531 | 8,280 | 10,050 | | 同比增速(%) | 51.7% | 59.2% | 26.8% | 21.4% | | 归母净利润(百万) | 688 | 1,035 | 1,631 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the insurance sector, expecting the industry index to outperform the benchmark index by over 5% in the next 3-6 months [20]. Core Insights - The report indicates that the public fund holdings in the insurance sector have decreased, influenced by performance expectations for Q3. The overall non-bank financial holdings decreased by 0.17 percentage points, with the insurance sector's holdings dropping by 0.29 percentage points [3][4]. - The report highlights that major insurance companies like China Ping An and China Pacific Insurance have seen a reduction in their public fund holdings, while only a few companies like China Life and Sunshine Insurance experienced slight increases [4]. - The anticipated performance for Q3 shows significant growth for major insurers, with China Life's net profit expected to increase by 862 million yuan, and other companies like New China Life and PICC also showing positive growth [5]. Summary by Sections Overall Industry Performance - Non-bank financial holdings decreased by 0.17 percentage points, with insurance holdings at 1.1% and a decline of 0.29 percentage points [3]. - The report notes a general reduction in individual stock holdings within the insurance sector, with China Ping An maintaining the highest holding at 0.46%, despite a decrease of 0.09 percentage points [4]. Company-Specific Insights - China Life, New China Life, and PICC are projected to show substantial growth in net profit for Q3, with increases of 862 million yuan, 104 million yuan, and respective quarterly growth rates of +2094%, +174%, +151% for the quarter [5]. - The report suggests that the performance of the insurance sector is likely to remain strong in Q4 and throughout the year, contingent on the current activity levels in the equity market [8]. Investment Recommendations - For the short term, the report recommends considering stocks with performance elasticity, specifically New China Life, China Pacific Insurance, China Life, and China Taiping [9]. - For the long term, it suggests a focus on fundamental performance and valuation, recommending China Pacific Insurance, China Financial Insurance, and China Ping An [9].

证 券 研 究 报 告 半导体存储行业深度研究报告 企业级需求高增，驱动新一轮存储超级周期 行业研究 电子 2025 年 11 月 5 日 推荐（维持） 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：岳阳 邮箱：yueyang@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360521120002 证券分析师：吴鑫 邮箱：wuxin@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360523060001 联系人：卢依雯 邮箱：luyiwen@hcyjs.com 行业基本数据 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数(只) | 168 | 0.02 | | 总市值(亿元) | 69,714.56 | 5.80 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 52,952.28 | 5.46 | 相对指数表现 | % | 1M | 6M | 12M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 绝对表现 | -4.3% | 46.9% | 51.2% | | 相对表现 | -4.5% | 23.5% | 31.5% | -9% 13% 36% 58% 24/11 25/01 25/03 25/06 25/08 25/10 ...

宏观研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【宏观专题】 ❖ 工业品价格独立性的三个分析切入视角 三个分析视角：1）按产品用途划分为生产资料和生活资料，生产资料分为采 掘、原材料、加工，生活资料分为食品、衣着、一般日用品、耐用消费品。2） 工业行业分类，划分为采矿业、制造业、电热气水，进一步可分为 41 个大类 行业、207 个中类行业。在常规分类之外，还可以从 3）高技术制造业、装备 制造业和战略性新兴产业的特殊分类视角去观察。对价格独立性的分析时段 是 2014 年至今。有两个原因：第一，我国经济发展阶段的转型期大致始于 2014 年前后（习总书记对经济"新常态"的阐述）。第二，数据的可获得性。 ❖ 生产和生活资料视角下，食品和衣着价格相对独立 我们估算，生产资料、生活资料的权重分别约 75%、25%，采掘、原材料、加 工业的权重分别约 4%、21%和 50%，食品、衣着、一般日用品、耐用消费品 的权重分别约 8%、3%、6%和 8%。 生产资料价格同比与 PPI 同比高度相关且几乎完全同步，相关系数高达 0.999， PPI 走势基本由生产资料价格决定。生活资料价格同比滞后 PPI 同比约 2 个季 度，相关系数 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 保险行业月报（2025 年 1-9 月） 预定利率下调影响寿险，产险景气度环比提升 推荐顺序：中短期来看考虑业绩弹性，推荐新华保险、中国财险、中国人寿、 中国太平；长期结合基本面及估值性价比，推荐中国太保、中国财险、中国平 安。 ❑ 风险提示：政策变动，自然灾害加剧，长期利率持续下行，权益市场震荡。 ❑ 重点公司盈利预测、估值及投资评级 | | | | | EPS（元） | | | PE（倍） | | PB（倍） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 简称 | 代码 | 股价（元） | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | 2025E | 评级 | | 中国太保 | 601601.SH | 35.43 | 5.68 | 6.15 | 6.81 | 6.24 | 5.76 | 5.20 | 1.13 | 推荐 | | 中国人寿 | 601628.SH | 43.43 | 6.34 | 4.10 | 4.74 | 6.85 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 非银行金融 2025 年 11 月 05 日 金融资金面跟踪：量化周报（2025/10/27~2025/10/31） 行业研究 基差贴水维持高位，IM 贴水走阔，市场交 推荐（维持） 投活跃度提升 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：徐康 电话：021-20572556 邮箱：xukang@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360518060005 证券分析师：刘潇伟 邮箱：liuxiaowei@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360525020001 联系人：杜婉桢 邮箱：duwanzhen@hcyjs.com 1020~1024 样本量化私募收益及超额如下：上周样本量化私募收益及超额如下：1） 300 增强策略周/月/年初以来平均收益分别为+2.1%/+2.3%/+16.1%，周/月/年初以来平均 超额分别为 0%/+0.6%/+2.6%；2）500 增强策略周/月/年初以来平均收益分别为 +2.7%/+1.5%/+25.7%，周/月/年初以来平均超额分别为+0.2%/+1.3%/+6.8%；3）A500 增 强策略周/月/年初以来平均收益分别为+3%/+2.3%/+24.5%，周/月/ ...

- The report utilizes an event study framework to analyze the effects of index sample stock adjustments, focusing on the short-term positive abnormal returns observed before the announcement date of the adjustments[4][7][12] - The prediction model for the CSI 300 Index sample stock adjustments follows the methodology outlined in the CSI 300 Index Compilation Scheme, which includes the following steps: 1. Define the sample space: The sample space consists of A-shares listed on the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges that meet specific criteria, such as listing duration and market capitalization[29][33] 2. Filter by trading volume: Stocks are ranked by average daily trading volume from November 1, 2024, to October 31, 2025, and the bottom 40% of old samples are excluded[29][33] 3. Filter by market capitalization: Stocks are ranked by average daily market capitalization, retaining the top 240 new samples and the top 360 old samples, considering buffer zone rules[29][30] 4. Exclude stocks penalized by the CSRC, financially unprofitable stocks, and stocks suspended for a long time[30] - The prediction model for the CSI 500 Index sample stock adjustments follows the methodology outlined in the CSI 500 Index Compilation Scheme, which includes the following steps: 1. Define the sample space: The sample space consists of A-shares listed on the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges that meet specific criteria, such as listing duration and market capitalization[34][39] 2. Filter by trading volume: Securities are ranked by average daily trading volume over the past year, and the bottom 20% are excluded[35] 3. Filter by market capitalization: Remaining securities are ranked by average daily market capitalization over the past year, and the top 500 are selected as index samples[35] 4. Apply adjustment and buffer rules: New samples ranked within the top 400 by market capitalization are prioritized for inclusion, while old samples ranked within the top 600 are prioritized for retention[39] - The historical prediction accuracy for the CSI 300 Index sample stock adjustments from June 2019 to November 2025 is as follows: - Correct predictions for sample stock additions: 178 out of 229, with an accuracy rate of 78%[26] - Correct predictions for sample stock removals: 219 out of 229, with an accuracy rate of 96%[26] - The historical prediction accuracy for the CSI 500 Index sample stock adjustments from June 2023 to November 2025 is as follows: - Correct predictions for sample stock additions: 177 out of 250, with an accuracy rate of 71%[28] - Correct predictions for sample stock removals: 230 out of 250, with an accuracy rate of 92%[28] - The backtesting results for the June 2025 CSI 300 Index sample stock adjustments show: - Predicted additions: Average cumulative excess return of 2.29% before the announcement date and -2.24% after the announcement date[18][20] - Predicted removals: Average cumulative excess return of -0.67% before the announcement date and 0.22% after the announcement date[18][20] - The backtesting results for the June 2025 CSI 500 Index sample stock adjustments show: - Predicted additions: Average cumulative excess return of -0.73% before the announcement date and 0.60% after the announcement date[24][25] - Predicted removals: Average cumulative excess return of 2.65% before the announcement date and -0.13% after the announcement date[24][25]

证 券 研 究 报 告 ❖ 金禾实业发布 2025 年三季度报告，2025 年前三季度实现营收 35.43 亿元，同 比-12.35%，实现归母净利润 3.91 亿元，同比-4.44%，实现扣非归母净利润 3.52 亿元，同比-6.48%。其中 Q3 实现营收 10.99 亿元，同/环比-26.91%/-3.76%， 实现归母净利润 0.57 亿元，同/环比-64.98%/-38.49%，实现扣非归母净利润 0.14 亿元，同/环比-89.08%/-87.51%。 评论： [ReportFinancialIndex] 主要财务指标 | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万) | 5,303 | 4,822 | 5,485 | 6,016 | | 同比增速(%) | -0.1% | -9.1% | 13.8% | 9.7% | | 归母净利润(百万) | 557 | 518 | 733 | 1,007 | | 同比增速(%) | -20.9% | -6.9% | 41.5% | 37.4% | | ...

宏观研究 美联储降息预期先上后下。10 月议息会议前预期 10 月、12 月两次议息会议都 将降息；但 10 月末市场预期美联储 12 月降息的概率仅为 70%左右，年内是 否再降息出现不确定性。欧元区降息预期持续偏弱，且从中期来看，市场对 2026 年 6 月降息的预期也不强，截至明年年中可能都不降息。日央行 12 月加 息预期有所升温，从中期来看，预期明年年中前日央行至少加息 1 次。 3、中国内地利率所处位置：实际利率小幅下降。实际利率由 9 月末的 3%下 降至 2.9%，不过国际比较来看，中国内地实际利率在全球 13 个经济体中仍处 于偏高水平（位列第 10），仅有印度、印尼、巴西的实际利率高于中国内地。 证 券 研 究 报 告 【宏观专题】 美联储达到"合理"准备金规模 ——全球货币转向跟踪第 10 期 一、全球货币政策转向跟踪 1、全球利率图谱：美联储再度降息，欧央行进一步转鹰 2025 年 10 月，我们跟踪的全球 26 个主要经济体中有 7 个经济体降息。美联 储 9 月降息 25bp 至 3.75%-4%，符合市场预期。欧央行连续第三次"按兵不 动"，但政策指引偏鹰。日本央行维持政策利率不 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the company, indicating an expectation of outperforming the benchmark index by 10%-20% over the next six months [6][16]. Core Insights - The company experienced a revenue decline of 12% year-on-year in Q3 2025, with a net profit decrease of 24%. However, for the first three quarters of 2025, revenue increased by 2% year-on-year to 7.1 billion yuan, and net profit rose by 3% to 1.03 billion yuan [2][3]. - The company is accelerating its globalization strategy, having submitted a prospectus for a Hong Kong IPO to support international expansion and potential mergers and acquisitions [2][3]. - The multi-brand strategy is showing growth, with significant performance from new product lines and brands, including a strong sales increase of 170% for the sunscreen category [2][3]. Financial Performance Summary - For Q3 2025, the company reported revenue of 1.74 billion yuan, down 12% year-on-year, and a net profit of 230 million yuan, down 24% year-on-year. The gross margin improved to 74.7%, up 4.0 percentage points year-on-year [2][3]. - The company forecasts total revenue of 10.86 billion yuan for 2025, with a slight growth of 0.7% year-on-year, and a net profit of 1.56 billion yuan, also reflecting a 0.7% increase [5][10]. - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is 3.95 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 18 times [5][10]. Business Strategy and Growth Drivers - The company is focusing on product innovation and brand development, with a clear roadmap for new product launches and upgrades, particularly in its core series [2][3]. - The investment in the emerging makeup brand "Hua Zhi Xiao" aims to attract a younger consumer demographic, enhancing the company's brand portfolio [2][3]. - The report highlights the importance of R&D in maintaining market leadership and driving future growth, with ongoing investments in product development [2][3].