1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, the mainland bond market is expected to maintain a low - interest - rate environment. "Going outbound" to seek high - coupon bonds remains one of the main demands of non - bank institutions. The new "Southbound Connect" policy may be gradually implemented, so investors can actively focus on the Hong Kong bond market to further explore investment value [2]. - The expansion of the "Southbound Connect" mechanism will significantly broaden the channels for non - bank institutions such as securities firms, funds, insurance companies, and bank wealth management to participate in the Hong Kong bond market. It is recommended to focus on the investment opportunities of dim sum bonds, which have been continuously expanding in recent years, and Chinese - funded US dollar bonds with a large outstanding scale [8]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Hong Kong Bond Market Development History and Outstanding Structure Characteristics 3.1.1 Development History: From Dominated by US Dollar Bonds to the Rise of RMB Bonds - The Hong Kong bond market can be divided into three development stages. Before 2015, it was in a slow - development stage, with the issuance scale growing from $100 million in 1989 to $103.3 billion in 2014, mainly corporate bonds. After the launch of the "Government Bond Program" in 2009, the issuance scale of government bonds began to increase [3][15]. - From 2015 - 2021, it experienced rapid development, with the issuance scale growing from $188.5 billion to $499.4 billion. The proportion of government bonds increased, mainly due to the growth of Hong Kong government retail bonds. US dollar bonds also grew rapidly because of the relaxation of overseas debt issuance regulations by the mainland [3][16]. - Since 2022, the total market has been in a stable development stage, but the internal structure has changed. The scale of US dollar bonds has decreased significantly due to tightened mainland regulations and the Fed's interest - rate hikes, while RMB bonds have developed rapidly due to China's loose monetary environment and central government policies [4][17]. 3.1.2 Outstanding Structure Characteristics: Chinese Issuers Account for 80%, and the Financial Industry Dominates - As of the end of 2024, the outstanding scales of Hong Kong dollar bonds, offshore RMB bonds, and G3 currency bonds in the Hong Kong bond market were $195.5 billion, $173.2 billion, and $565.6 billion respectively, with corporate bonds accounting for over 70% in each category [24]. - Currently, the total outstanding bond scale in the Hong Kong market is about $1.05 trillion. About 80% of the issuers are from China, about 65% of the remaining maturities are within 3 years, the financial industry accounts for half of the market, and the currency is mainly US dollars [4][25]. 3.2 Hong Kong Bond Market Liquidity and Investor Participation - In terms of liquidity, before the end of 2020, the average daily trading volume of bonds托管 and settled by the CMU system was stable at around HK$5 billion. Since 2021, the launch of the "Southbound Connect" and the increase in the issuance of RMB bonds have promoted the trading volume to increase to HK$20 - 25 billion, and the average daily turnover rate has risen from about 0.5% to around 1% [5][37]. - In terms of investor structure, asset management institutions, banks, and hedge funds hold 75%, 9%, and 7% of the outstanding bond balances with available holder data respectively. Holders are mainly distributed in the United States, Luxembourg, and China, and foreign - funded enterprises such as BlackRock, Nomura, and HSBC have relatively large management scales [5][41][44]. 3.3 Participation Opportunities in the Hong Kong Bond Market under the Expansion of the Bond "Southbound Connect" Mechanism 3.3.1 Chinese - funded Overseas Bonds: There are Obvious Excess Spreads, with Priority Focused on - Dim sum bonds: There are opportunities for spread compression in various types of urban investment bonds and high - grade industrial bonds. The outstanding dim sum bonds in the Hong Kong market are 1,376, with a balance of about 1.47 trillion yuan. The excess spreads of high - grade urban investment and industrial bonds are mostly between 100 - 150BP, and the spreads of low - grade urban investment bonds are mostly between 200 - 400BP [50]. - Chinese - funded US dollar bonds: The excess spreads of all varieties compared with domestic bonds are over 200BP. There are 1,066 outstanding Chinese - funded US dollar bonds in the Hong Kong market, with a balance of about $352.7 billion. The excess spreads of high - grade urban investment and industrial bonds are mostly between 200 - 300BP, and those of low - grade bonds are over 300BP [53]. - Sub - varieties investment suggestions: For urban investment overseas bonds, select bonds with a maturity of less than 3 years, a yield of over 4%, a subject rating of AA+ or above, and a bond balance of over 300 million yuan/dollars. For industrial overseas bonds, focus on central and state - owned enterprise bonds, and be cautious about the real - estate industry. For financial overseas bonds, pay attention to the overseas bonds of industries such as banks and AMCs [9][57][58]. 3.3.2 Overseas Bonds of Hong Kong, Macao, Taiwan, and Foreign - funded Enterprises: Focus on High - Quality Entities with Large Outstanding Scales and High Coupons - Consider overseas bonds issued by Hong Kong, Macao, Taiwan, and foreign - funded enterprises with large outstanding scales and high coupon yields, such as Hong Kong Mortgage Corporation Limited, Hong Kong Airport Authority, and Qatar Petroleum. These bonds generally have an average yield or coupon rate of over 3% and have certain allocation value. However, credit research and risk screening of the issuers are required before investment [6][10][62].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The issuance of the "Corporate Sustainability Disclosure Standards No. 1 - Climate (Trial)" aims to standardize corporate sustainability information disclosure and promote sustainable development in economic, social, and environmental aspects [8][10] - Green loans in China have maintained a high growth rate of over 20% for the past five years, with a balance of 43.51 trillion yuan as of Q3 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 22.9% [13] - The report highlights the importance of ESG (Environmental, Social, and Governance) practices in driving sustainable development and the increasing integration of ESG into corporate strategies [17] Industry Development Dynamics Policy Dynamics - The "Corporate Sustainability Disclosure Standards No. 1 - Climate (Trial)" was released on December 25, 2025, to regulate corporate sustainability disclosures [8] - The National Development and Reform Commission encourages the collaborative construction of national computing hubs and clean energy bases to enhance infrastructure integration and modernization [11] Industry Hotspots - The People's Bank of China reported that green loans have consistently grown at over 20% annually, significantly outpacing other loan growth rates [13] - A public letter published in the Indianapolis Star urged major tech companies like Amazon and Google to use clean energy for their data centers to meet climate goals [14] - The "2025 China ESG Top 100" list was released, showcasing leading companies in finance and consumer sectors that are integrating sustainability into their core strategies [16] Industry Practices - The World Wildlife Fund (WWF) and Yili's brand Jindian have collaborated for nearly a decade to promote sustainable practices in the dairy industry, focusing on wetland protection and grassland restoration [18] - BMW Group aims to reduce lifecycle carbon emissions by at least 60 million tons by 2035, with a focus on localized green innovation in the Chinese market [20] Institutional and Expert Opinions - Wang Zhongmin emphasized that AI's future is tied to ESG, highlighting the need for green energy in AI development [21] - Vuk Jeremic stressed the importance of multilateral cooperation for sustainable development amidst geopolitical challenges [22] ESG Capital Market Dynamics Index Performance - As of January 18, 2026, major ESG indices have outperformed the market, with the Sci-Tech ESG index rising by 17.6% [23] Public Funds - Approximately 65 ESG-themed public funds exist, with a total net asset of 36.3 billion yuan as of January 18, 2026 [25] Bonds - As of January 18, 2026, there are 2,750 ESG bonds with a total balance of 39,355 billion yuan, with a significant portion being financial bonds [32] Bank Wealth Management - There are 582 ESG-themed bank wealth management products, with 100 new products launched in December and January [35]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The issuance of the "Corporate Sustainability Disclosure Standards No. 1 - Climate (Trial)" aims to standardize corporate sustainability information disclosure and promote sustainable development in economic, social, and environmental aspects [8][10] - Green loans in China have maintained a high growth rate of over 20% for the past five years, with a balance of 43.51 trillion yuan as of Q3 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 22.9% [13] - The report highlights the importance of collaboration between technology giants and clean energy initiatives to meet climate goals, as emphasized in an open letter urging companies like Amazon and Google to power their data centers with clean energy [14][15] Industry Development Dynamics Policy Dynamics - The "Corporate Sustainability Disclosure Standards No. 1 - Climate (Trial)" was released on December 25, 2025, to regulate corporate sustainability disclosures [8] - The National Development and Reform Commission encourages the integration of national computing hubs with clean energy bases to enhance infrastructure and promote modernization [11] Industry Hotspots - The People's Bank of China reported that green loans have consistently grown at over 20% annually, with a balance of 43.51 trillion yuan as of Q3 2025, outpacing overall loan growth by 16.4 percentage points [13] - An open letter published in the Indianapolis Star called for major tech companies to utilize clean energy for their data centers to achieve climate targets [14] - The "2025 China Enterprise ESG Top 100" list was released, showcasing leading companies in finance and consumer sectors that are integrating sustainability into their core strategies [16][17] Industry Practices - The World Wildlife Fund (WWF) and Yili's brand Jindian have collaborated for nearly a decade to promote sustainable practices in the dairy industry, focusing on wetland protection and grassland restoration [18][19] - BMW Group aims to reduce lifecycle carbon emissions by at least 60 million tons by 2035, with a focus on localized green innovation in the Chinese market [20] Institutional and Expert Perspectives - Wang Zhongmin, former vice chairman of the National Social Security Fund, stated that AI's future is tied to ESG, emphasizing the need for green energy in AI development [21] - Vuk Jeremic, chairman of the Center for Sustainable Development, highlighted the importance of multilateral cooperation for achieving global sustainability goals amid geopolitical challenges [22] ESG Capital Market Dynamics Index Performance - As of January 18, 2026, most major ESG indices outperformed the market, with the Sci-Tech ESG Index rising by 17.6% [23] Public Funds - There are approximately 65 ESG-themed public funds with a total net asset of 36.3 billion yuan as of January 18, 2026, with one new fund launched in December and January [25] Bonds - As of January 18, 2026, there are 2,750 ESG bonds with a total balance of 39,355 billion yuan, with a significant decline in net financing due to increased repayment amounts [29][32] Bank Wealth Management - There are 582 ESG-themed bank wealth management products, with 100 new products launched in December and January [35]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the express delivery industry, indicating an expected increase in the industry index exceeding the benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 3-6 months [1][33]. Core Insights - The express delivery industry experienced a slowdown in growth in December, with significant differentiation in brand growth rates. The report highlights the need to focus on the "Gain Plan" of SF Express to optimize its structure [1]. - In December, the year-on-year growth rates for business volume were as follows: Shentong (11.1%) > SF Express (9.3%) > YTO (9.0%) > Yunda (-7.4%). For the cumulative year-on-year growth from January to December, the rates were: SF Express (25.4%) > YTO (17.2%) > Shentong (15.0%) > Yunda (7.6%) [6][8]. - Revenue growth in December showed Shentong leading with a year-on-year increase of 28.2%, followed by YTO (7.5%), SF Express (3.8%), and Yunda (-1.5%). The cumulative revenue growth for the year was: Shentong (17.6%) > YTO (12.3%) > SF Express (10.9%) > Yunda (4.7%) [6][8]. Summary by Sections Industry Basic Data - The total market value of the express delivery industry is approximately 314.61 billion yuan, with a circulating market value of about 302.76 billion yuan [3]. Company Performance - SF Express reported a single ticket revenue of 13.81 yuan in December, a year-on-year decrease of 5.1%. In contrast, Shentong's single ticket revenue was 2.33 yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 15.4% [8]. - The report notes that Shentong's acquisition of Daniao Logistics has positively impacted its revenue growth, with the company expected to benefit from network synergies [6]. Strategic Developments - SF Express has entered a strategic partnership with J&T Express, enhancing its operational capabilities by combining its cross-border advantages with J&T's end capabilities. This collaboration aims to create a more efficient and resilient end-to-end fulfillment system [6]. - The report emphasizes the potential for continued investment opportunities in SF Express, particularly through its "Gain Plan" and collaboration with J&T Express, which is expected to optimize its operational structure and improve cash flow sustainability [6].

公司研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 浙江荣泰（603119）深度研究报告 推荐（首次） 全球云母绝缘制品领先者，机器人业务打开 新成长空间 [ReportFinancialIndex] 主要财务指标 | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万) | 1,135 | 1,567 | 2,433 | 3,416 | | 同比增速(%) | 41.8% | 38.1% | 55.3% | 40.4% | | 归母净利润(百万) | 230 | 319 | 492 | 671 | | 同比增速(%) | 34.0% | 38.5% | 54.1% | 36.5% | | 每股盈利(元) | 0.63 | 0.88 | 1.35 | 1.85 | | 市盈率(倍) | 187 | 135 | 87 | 64 | | 市净率(倍) | 23.5 | 20.5 | 17.3 | 14.3 | 资料来源：公司公告，华创证券预测 注：股价为 2026 年 1 月 19 日收盘价 汽车零部件Ⅲ 2026 年 01 月 ...

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for Zhejiang Rongtai (603119) for the first time [1] Core Views - Zhejiang Rongtai is a leading global supplier of mica insulation products and has opened new growth opportunities in the robotics sector [1] - The company has a strong historical performance with a revenue CAGR of 30% from 2019 to 2024 and a net profit CAGR of 61% during the same period [6] - The report anticipates significant growth in both traditional mica insulation products and new robotics components, driven by increasing penetration of new energy vehicles and supportive national policies [6][8] Financial Summary - Total revenue projections for 2024A, 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E are 1,135 million, 1,567 million, 2,433 million, and 3,416 million respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 41.8%, 38.1%, 55.3%, and 40.4% [2] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 230 million, 319 million, 492 million, and 671 million for the same years, with growth rates of 34.0%, 38.5%, 54.1%, and 36.5% [2] - The target price is set at 139.8 yuan, with a current price of 118.17 yuan, indicating a potential upside of approximately 18% [2][6] Business Overview - The company has been deeply involved in the mica insulation product market for over 20 years, transitioning into the new energy vehicle sector since 2013 and expanding into robotics through acquisitions [6][12] - The main product categories include new energy vehicle safety components, other insulation safety components, and robotics parts [6][15] - The new energy vehicle safety components accounted for 81% of revenue in the first half of 2025, with a gross margin of 39.8% [15] Growth Drivers - The report highlights that the new energy vehicle safety components business is expected to accelerate due to increased penetration rates and overseas orders [8] - The robotics business is positioned for growth through strategic acquisitions and partnerships, including the acquisition of Diz Precision and collaborations with leading manufacturers [6][8] Valuation and Profit Forecast - The report estimates net profits for 2025-2027 to be 3.2 billion, 4.9 billion, and 6.7 billion respectively, with a CAGR of 43% [8] - A segmented valuation approach is used, with traditional business expected to grow alongside the new energy market, while the robotics segment is still in its early stages [6][8] - The target market capitalization for 2026 is projected at 509 billion yuan, with a corresponding target price of 139.8 yuan [6][8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for 康耐特光学 (02276.HK) [1] Core Views - 康耐特光学's subsidiary, 朝日光学, is set to establish a joint venture with 歌尔光学 to develop and sell resin lenses and optical waveguide lenses for AI/AR/VR/MR glasses, with respective shareholdings of 30% and 70% [1] - The formation of this joint venture is seen as a strategic alliance that enhances 康耐特光学's position in the supply chain and strengthens its capabilities in providing comprehensive solutions, transitioning from a lens solution provider to a key player in the smart glasses ecosystem [8] - The company is actively expanding its smart glasses business, with increasing collaborations with overseas clients and successful project deliveries to domestic clients, indicating a positive market response [8] - The report forecasts 康耐特光学's net profit for 2025-2027 to be 564 million, 696 million, and 869 million RMB respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 47, 38, and 31 [8] Financial Summary - Total revenue projections for 康耐特光学 are 2,061 million RMB for 2024, increasing to 3,380 million RMB by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 17.1% to 19.2% [3] - The company's net profit is expected to grow at a CAGR of 31.0% to 25.0% over the same period, indicating strong profitability growth [3] - The target price for 康耐特光学 is set at 69.36 HKD, with the current price at 62.05 HKD, suggesting an upside potential [4]

Group 1: Economic Structure and Wealth - By 2025, the new economy is expected to account for 20.1% of the total economy, surpassing the old economy at 19.7% for the first time[2][11] - Financial assets held by residents are projected to exceed residential assets by 2026, driven by increases in deposits, non-deposit financial investments, and stock market valuations[3][13] Group 2: Spending Willingness and Supply-Demand Dynamics - Resident spending willingness has declined from 101.4% in 2021 to 80% in 2025, but is expected to rebound to 107.6% by 2025 due to fiscal and external demand support[4][18] - In December 2025, the midstream manufacturing sector is expected to see a demand growth rate of 8.4%, contrasting with upstream at -6.8% and downstream at 3.2%[5][21] Group 3: Quarterly Economic Data Insights - In Q4 2025, GDP growth was recorded at 4.5%, with a nominal GDP growth of 3.8% and a cumulative annual growth of 5.0%[6][25] - The contribution rates to economic growth in Q4 were 52.9% from final consumption, 16.0% from capital formation, and 31.1% from net exports[29] Group 4: Employment and Consumer Behavior - The urban unemployment rate remained stable at 5.1% in December 2025, with a total of 18.006 million migrant workers, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 0.8%[46][39] - Consumer spending growth in December was 0.9%, down from 1.3% in the previous month, indicating a slowdown in consumer demand[51][43]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for 康耐特光学 (02276.HK) [1] Core Views - 康耐特光学's subsidiary, 朝日光学, is set to establish a joint venture with 歌尔光学 to develop, produce, and sell resin lenses and optical waveguide lenses for AI/AR/VR/MR glasses, with respective shareholdings of 30% and 70% [1] - The strategic alliance is expected to enhance 康耐特光学's position in the smart glasses market, transitioning from a "lens solution provider" to a key player in the smart glasses ecosystem, thereby strengthening its competitive advantage in the supply chain and leading industry technology paths [8] - The company is actively expanding its smart glasses projects, with increasing collaborations with overseas clients and successful product deliveries to domestic clients, indicating a positive market response [8] - The investment suggestion highlights 康耐特光学 as a leading lens manufacturer with a promising second growth curve in smart glasses, projecting net profits of 564 million, 696 million, and 869 million yuan for 2025-2027, with corresponding P/E ratios of 47, 38, and 31 [8][9] Financial Summary - Total revenue projections for 康耐特光学 are 2,061 million, 2,347 million, 2,835 million, and 3,380 million yuan for 2024A, 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 17.1%, 13.9%, 20.8%, and 19.2% [3] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 428 million, 564 million, 696 million, and 869 million yuan for the same years, with growth rates of 31.0%, 31.7%, 23.3%, and 25.0% [3] - The earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 0.89, 1.18, 1.45, and 1.81 yuan for 2024A, 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E respectively [3] - The target price for 康耐特光学 is set at 69.36 HKD, with the current price at 62.05 HKD [4]

Group 1: Inflation and Commodity Performance - The total return ratio of gold to U.S. Treasuries reached 0.41 by December 2025, indicating that high inflation risks may have been fully priced in, as historical comparisons show similar levels during periods of high inflation with CPI at 9.7% and 8.3%[5] - The S&P Goldman Sachs Commodity Index fell by 1% in the first nine months of 2025, while the CRB Commodity Index rose by 1.7%, reflecting a subdued performance in commodities due to the contraction of the U.S. "twin deficits" from 11.5% to 9.8% of GDP[11] - The gold-to-silver price ratio dropped to 51 as of January 16, 2026, below the 60-year average of 59, suggesting potential downward pressure on gold prices[8] Group 2: U.S. Debt and Interest Rates - The weighted average yield of U.S. Treasuries rose to 3.36% by Q3 2025, the highest since Q2 2009, while interest expenses as a percentage of GDP increased to 3.86%[14] - The U.S. mortgage effective rate was 4.2% as of Q3 2025, which is 2.1% lower than the 30-year mortgage rate, indicating a potential overestimation of the pressure on household consumption from high mortgage rates[17] - The weighted duration of U.S. Treasuries decreased from 72 months to 71.3 months, alleviating some pressure on government interest expenses[14] Group 3: Equity Risk Premium and Market Indicators - The equity risk premium (ERP) for the CSI 300 Index was 4.1% as of January 16, 2026, which is below the historical average by one standard deviation, indicating potential for valuation uplift[20] - The total return ratio of domestic stocks to bonds was 29.3 as of January 16, 2026, above the past 16-year average, suggesting increased attractiveness of equity assets relative to fixed income[30] - The forward arbitrage return for China's 10-year government bonds was 34 basis points as of January 16, 2026, which is 64 basis points higher than the level in December 2016[22]