债券研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【债券日报】 转债市场日度跟踪 20251231 (1) 收盘价：大周期环比+0.18%、制造环比-0.02%、科技环比+0.86%、大消费 环比+0.49%、大金融环比-0.76%。 (2) 转股溢价率：大周期环比+0.45pct、制造环比+0.9pct、科技环比-0.7pct、大 消费环比+0.15pct、大金融环比+0.22pct。 市场概况：12 月 31 日转债过半行业上涨，估值环比抬升 指数表现：中证转债指数环比上涨 0.02%、上证综指环比上涨 0.09%、深证成 指环比下降 0.58%、创业板指环比下降 1.23%、上证 50 指数环比下降 0.18%、 中证 1000 指数环比下降 0.03%。 市场风格：中盘价值相对占优。大盘成长环比下降 0.82%、大盘价值环比下降 0.13%、中盘成长环比下降 0.42%、中盘价值环比上涨 0.45%、小盘成长环比 上涨 0.14%、小盘价值环比下降 0.17%。 资金表现：转债市场成交情绪减弱。可转债市场成交额为 746.80 亿元，环比 减少 0.50%；万得全 A 总成交额为 20657.88 亿元，环比减少 4 ...

金融工程 证 券 研 究 报 告 市场情绪监控周报（20251229-20251231） 深度学习因子 12 月超额 5.46%，本周热度变化最 大行业为有石油石化、建筑装饰 本周情绪因子跟踪 本周宽基热度变化方面：热度变化率最大的中证 500，相比上周提高 3.45%， 最小的为"其他"，相比上周降低 2.39%；宽基热度动量组合 25 年累计收益为 36.8%。 本周申万行业热度变化方面，一级行业中热度变化率正向变化前 5 的一级行 业分别为石油石化、建筑装饰、基础化工、机械设备、家用电器，负向变化前 5 的一级行业分别为农林牧渔、社会服务、商贸零售、食品饮料、煤炭；申万 二级行业中，热度正向变化率最大的 5 个行业是电机Ⅱ、装修装饰Ⅱ、炼化及 贸易、航运港口、化学纤维。 本周概念热度变化最大的 5 个概念为华为盘古、移动支付、代糖概念、减速 器、PEEK 材料；高热度概念+低热度个股组合 25 年累计收益为 41.8%。 本周市场估值跟踪 本周宽基和行业估值： 沪深 300、中证 500、中证 1000 的滚动 5 年历史分位数分别为 90%、97%、 94%。 申万一级行业中，从 2015 年开始回溯 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the mechanical industry, with a focus on AI equipment and consumables, as well as humanoid robots [1] Core Insights - The mechanical industry is expected to enter a new recovery cycle driven by monetary and fiscal policies, with significant investment opportunities in the industrial control sector, robotics, machine tools, and AI equipment [6][8] - The AI equipment and consumables sector is experiencing a surge in demand due to the rapid iteration of AI models and smart hardware applications, leading to increased requirements for high-performance servers and advanced PCBs [6][21] - The humanoid robot industry is transitioning from concept validation to commercialization, presenting unique investment opportunities in companies with productization capabilities in key components and solutions [6][21] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The mechanical industry comprises 634 listed companies with a total market capitalization of 6.37 trillion yuan and a circulating market value of 5.29 trillion yuan [3] Company Earnings Forecasts and Valuations - Key companies in the mechanical sector are projected to have strong earnings growth, with several receiving a "Strong Buy" rating, including: - Huichuan Technology: EPS forecast of 2.11 yuan in 2025, with a PE ratio of 35.72 [2] - Falan Technology: EPS forecast of 0.60 yuan in 2025, with a PE ratio of 19.85 [2] - Xinjie Electric: EPS forecast of 1.83 yuan in 2025, with a PE ratio of 30.13 [2] - Okoyi: EPS forecast of 0.71 yuan in 2025, with a PE ratio of 44.86 [2] - Other notable companies include Anhui Heli, Su Shi Testing, and Sany Heavy Industry, all rated as "Strong Buy" [2] Market Performance - The mechanical sector has shown a 1.0% increase in the recent week, outperforming the broader market indices [10][15] - The absolute performance over the last 12 months is 40.7%, indicating strong growth relative to other sectors [4] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies in various sub-sectors, including: - Industrial control: Huichuan Technology, Xinjie Electric, and Weichuang Electric [6] - Robotics: Keli Sensor, Donghua Testing, and Mingzhi Electric [6] - Machine tools: Haitai Precision, Neway CNC, and Huacheng Equipment [6] - Consumables: Dingtai High-Tech and Zhongtung High-Tech [6] - Testing: Huace Testing and Guandian Measurement [6] - Engineering machinery: Sany Heavy Industry and XCMG [6] - Forklift industry: Anhui Heli and Hangcha Group [6] - Laser industry: Ruike Laser and Plit [6] - Logistics equipment: Falan Technology and Lanjian Intelligent [6] - Rail transit equipment: CRRC and Times Electric [6] - 3C equipment: Kuaike Intelligent and Bozhong Precision [6]

证 券 研 究 报 告 中国国航（601111）深度研究报告 推荐（维持） 航空股或开启大级别行情 ——华创交运|航空强国系列研究（一） 公司研究 航空 2026 年 01 月 04 日 目标价：11.8 元/10.0 港元 当前价：9.37 元/7.11 港元 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：吴一凡 邮箱：wuyifan@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360516090002 证券分析师：吴晨玥 邮箱：wuchenyue@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360523070001 证券分析师：梁婉怡 邮箱：liangwanyi@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360523080001 证券分析师：霍鹏浩 邮箱：huopenghao@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360524030001 证券分析师：卢浩敏 邮箱：luhaomin@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360524090001 证券分析师：李清影 邮箱：liqingying@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360525080004 联系人：刘邢雨 邮箱：liuxingyu@hcyjs.com 公司基本数据 | 总股本(万股) | 1,74 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 【策略周报】 躁动主线与扩散——策略周聚焦 1、关注春季躁动下成交热度较低的热门主题机会：有色/新能源/机器人/半导 体等。当前热门主题赛道中，除商业航天概念影响下的卫星通信与通信设备成 交热度处于高位，其余有色金属、新能源、机器人、半导体材料设备等主题成 交热度均处于历史中低水平，后续随着春季躁动的持续发酵成交有望向当前热 度偏低主题扩散。 相关研究报告 《【华创策略】杠杆资金净流入重回历史高位— —流动性&交易拥挤度&投资者温度计周报》 2025-12-29 《【华创策略】大类资产年关盘点——策略周聚 焦》 2025-12-28 《【华创策略】股票型 ETF 净流入创今年 4 月以 来新高——流动性&交易拥挤度&投资者温度计 周报》 2025-12-22 《【华创策略】储备躁动品种——策略周聚焦》 2、关注业绩预期改善的非银，科技制造（电子、电新），顺周期（煤炭、有色）。 ①非银：重视保险短期保费开门红&中期投资收益增厚业绩表现。②顺周期： 经济工作会议定调&"十五五"开局之年，财政发力基建项目有望加码，关注 紧供给的有色/化工/建材/钢铁/煤炭。 风险提示：宏观经济复苏不及预期； ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 有色金属行业周报（20251229-20260102） 推荐（维持） 金属供给刚性逻辑持续，期待春季躁动下表现 观点：我们建议关注春季躁动行情下电解铝的弹性和红利属性。从基本面看， 本周全球铝安全库存总体仍维持低位，海外项目因电力问题减产预期在持续发 酵，未来 2-3 年全球供需或维持紧平衡，库存或维持低位对铝价形成支撑。从 金融属性看，本周国内外铜铝比虽然环比上周有所回落，但依然维持历史高位， 铝补涨空间仍存，考虑美国当前铝面临高升水，若未来缺电逻辑造成美国地区 减产，铝上涨弹性或更强，静待春季躁动行情叠加铜铝比修复带来的铝价弹性。 我们持续看好电解铝红利属性，我们预计本周电解铝行业平均利润提升至 6000 以上，预计未来电解铝利润有望维持高位。从分红意愿看，因为这几年 电解铝企业总体进入现金流持续修复和盈利稳定性提升的阶段，并且由于行业 未来资本开支强度较低，上市公司普遍具备提高回馈股东的能力和意愿，红利 资产属性逐步凸显，看好电解铝行业弹性和红利属性。 观点：我们认为公司 2025 年业绩符合预期，公司作为全球矿业龙头，核心金 属稳步扩张，预计公司 2025 年 Q4 实现归母净 ...

- Short-term volume models for some broad-based indices turned bullish[1][3][11] - Feature-based institutional model turned bullish[1][3][11] - Feature-based volume model remained neutral[1][3][11] - Intelligent algorithm model for CSI 300 remained neutral, while for CSI 500 turned bullish[1][3][11] - Mid-term limit-up and limit-down model turned bullish[1][3][12] - Up-down return difference model turned bullish for all broad-based indices[1][3][12] - Calendar effect model remained neutral[1][3][12] - Long-term momentum model turned bullish for some broad-based indices[1][3][13] - Comprehensive A-share V3 model turned bullish[1][3][13] - Comprehensive A-share Guozheng 2000 model turned bullish[1][3][13] - Mid-term turnover amplitude model for Hong Kong stocks turned bullish[1][3][14] - Hang Seng Index up-down return difference model remained neutral[1][3][14]

证 券 研 究 报 告 【策略月报】 股息率年关盘点 ——多行业联合红利资产 12 月报 策略研究 策略月报 2026 年 01 月 04 日 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：姚佩 邮箱：yaopei@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360522120004 证券分析师：吴一凡 邮箱：wuyifan@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360516090002 证券分析师：徐康 电话：021-20572556 邮箱：xukang@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360518060005 证券分析师：欧阳予 邮箱：ouyangyu@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360520070001 证券分析师：韩星雨 邮箱：hanxingyu@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360525050001 证券分析师：单戈 邮箱：shange@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360522110001 证券分析师：马野 邮箱：maye@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360523040003 相关研究报告 《【华创策略】杠杆&ETF 资金分化趋势逆转—— 流动性&交易拥挤度&投资者温度计周报》 2025-12-01 《【华 ...

www.hczq.com 证券研究报告 | 医药生物 | 2026年01月04日 华创医药投资观点&研究专题周周谈 · 第157期 2025年度医药业绩前瞻 | 华创医药团队： | | --- | | 首席分析师郑辰 | | 联席首席分析师刘浩 | | 医疗器械组组长李婵娟 | | 中药和流通组组长高初蕾 | | 高级分析师王宏雨 | | 高级分析师朱珂琛 | | 分析师陈俊威 | | 分析师张良龙 | 执业编号：S0360520110002邮箱：zhengchen@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360520120002邮箱：liuhao@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360520110004邮箱：lichanjuan@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360524070002邮箱：gaochulei@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360523080006邮箱：wanghongyu@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360524070007邮箱：zhukechen@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360525060002邮箱：chenjunwei@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S03605251 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Haier Smart Home (600690) [1] Core Insights - Haier Smart Home has received multiple industry recognitions for its digital service system, which extends its offline service capabilities online and overseas, enhancing service efficiency and standardization [1] - The company reported a revenue of 77.56 billion yuan in Q3 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 9.51%, consistent with the 10.2% growth in H1 2025 [8] - The domestic business revenue grew by 10.8% year-on-year, with the air conditioning segment seeing over 30% growth in Q3 [8] - The company’s profitability improved, with a net profit of 5.34 billion yuan in Q3 2025, up 12.7% year-on-year [8] - The operating cash flow for Q3 2025 was 6.352 billion yuan, which is 1.2 times the net profit [8] - Future growth is expected to continue, with a projected double-digit profit growth in 2026, supported by improving demand in domestic and international markets [8] Financial Summary - Total revenue projections for 2024A, 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E are 285.981 billion, 309.930 billion, 328.665 billion, and 347.024 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 9.4%, 8.4%, 6.0%, and 5.6% [3] - Net profit projections for the same years are 18.741 billion, 21.432 billion, 23.605 billion, and 26.101 billion yuan, with growth rates of 12.9%, 14.4%, 10.1%, and 10.6% respectively [3] - The target price is set at 33.8 yuan, with the current price at 26.54 yuan, indicating significant upside potential [4]