证 券 研 究 报 告 房地产行业周报（2026 年第 3 周） 首开集团发行 7.5 亿私募债，1 月至今 11 城 推荐（维持） 二手房成交同比增长 19% 行业研究 房地产 2026 年 01 月 21 日 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：单戈 邮箱：shange@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360522110001 证券分析师：许常捷 邮箱：xuchangjie@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360525030002 证券分析师：杨航 证监会审核华创证券投资咨询业务资格批文号：证监许可（2009）1210 号 邮箱：yanghang@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360525090001 行业基本数据 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数(只) | 107 | 0.01 | | 总市值(亿元) | 12,199.78 | 0.98 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 11,699.32 | 1.17 | 相对指数表现 | % | 1M | 6M | 12M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 绝对表现 | 3.7% | 7.2% | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 67.6 yuan [2][8]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve significant profit growth in 2025, with net profit projected between 220 million to 250 million yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 28.6% to 50.9% [2]. - The performance of the subsidiary, Nanfu Battery, is anticipated to exceed its profit commitment, driven by an increase in ownership stake to 46% [8]. - The report highlights the potential for price adjustments and overseas expansion for Nanfu Battery, which could enhance profitability [8]. - The company is also pursuing diversification by investing in a startup in the optical chip sector, which may contribute to future growth [8]. Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to grow from 4,638 million yuan in 2024 to 5,629 million yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 8.5% [4]. - Net profit is expected to increase significantly from 168 million yuan in 2024 to 482 million yuan in 2027, reflecting a CAGR of 10.5% [4]. - Earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from 0.65 yuan in 2024 to 1.87 yuan in 2027 [4]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 78 in 2024 to 27 in 2027, indicating improved valuation over time [4].

证 券 研 究 报 告 【策略专题】 星辰大海：马斯克六大产业链映射 2026 年被认为是马斯克旗下多项颠覆性技术从研发测试迈向大规模商业化的 关键窗口，"马斯克概念"不再是单一题材，而是一个庞大的产业链图谱。覆 盖商业航天（SpaceX）、电动车&无人驾驶（特斯拉）、机器人（特斯拉 Optimus）、 人工智能（xAI）、脑机接口（Neuralink）、地下隧道网络（The Boring Company） 六大方向。而各个产业之间并非孤立存在，它们共享数据、技术、资本，相互 验证，相互增强，从而构建了一个"交通-能源-人工智能"的协同闭环。 商业航天：SpaceX 万亿估值重塑赛道 SpaceX 通过可重复使用火箭技术重塑航天发射成本结构, 2026 年有望启动史 上最大 IPO。从业绩来看，2023 年 SpaceX 实现收支平衡，马斯克表示 2025 年 营收预计达 155 亿美元。此外，马斯克最近公布了 SpaceX 的制造目标之一： 每年生产 1 万艘星舰飞船，SpaceX 供应链预计率先收获相关订单，带动产业 链业绩提升。 无人驾驶：从概念走向量产，商业化进程加速 特斯拉 FSD 零接管横穿美国， ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The U.S. electricity system is undergoing a significant transition, with natural gas becoming the dominant fuel source, accounting for approximately 43% of total generation capacity by 2024, while renewable energy sources are rapidly increasing their share, projected to reach 24% by 2025 [2][8][9] - The demand for electricity is expected to rise significantly due to the growth of data centers and electric vehicles, with projections indicating that data centers could consume between 325 billion to 580 billion kilowatt-hours by 2028, representing 6.7% to 12.0% of total U.S. electricity consumption [2][36] - The report highlights the challenges faced by the electricity sector, including aging infrastructure, the need for modernization, and the impact of fluctuating fuel prices on electricity costs [6][28][31] Summary by Sections 1. Overview of the U.S. Electricity System - The U.S. electricity generation is primarily sourced from fossil fuels, nuclear, and renewable energy, with natural gas leading at 41.2% of the generation mix in the first ten months of 2025 [5] - The renewable energy share has increased significantly, providing approximately 23.9% of electricity in the same period, with wind and solar being the largest contributors [5][9] 2. Supply and Demand Dynamics - Natural gas generation capacity is projected to reach 571 GW by 2024, with a consumption increase of about 4% over three years [8] - Renewable energy is expected to dominate new capacity additions, with solar accounting for about half of the new installations in 2025 [9] - Coal's role in the energy mix is declining, with a projected consumption of 448 million short tons in 2025, but the retirement of coal plants is slowing due to rising electricity demand [10][11] 3. Electricity Pricing Trends - Historical electricity prices have shown a gradual increase, with nominal prices rising from approximately 8 cents per kilowatt-hour in the mid-1980s to about 13.5 cents by 2020 [27] - Recent trends indicate a more rapid increase in electricity prices, driven by rising capital expenditures for grid modernization and fluctuating fuel costs [28][31] - Future projections suggest a moderate increase in electricity prices over the next 5-10 years, influenced by demand growth from electrification trends and the need for substantial investments in infrastructure [33][35] 4. Data Center Electricity Consumption - Data centers have seen a dramatic increase in electricity consumption, rising from 76 billion kilowatt-hours in 2018 to approximately 176 billion kilowatt-hours in 2023, representing 4.4% of total U.S. electricity use [36] - The demand from AI-related data centers is expected to grow by 22% in 2025, with projections indicating a tripling of demand by 2030 [36]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 64 yuan [1]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve a revenue of 3.038 billion yuan in 2025, a decrease of 42% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 391 million yuan, down 71% year-on-year [1][3]. - The fourth quarter is projected to see a revenue of 690 million yuan, a decline of 51.73%, and a net profit of 66 million yuan, down 69.52% year-on-year [1]. - The significant decline in financial performance is attributed to macroeconomic conditions, industry adjustments, and policy factors, leading to a slow recovery in demand for core scenarios like business banquets [7]. - The company has proactively managed inventory levels during the industry downturn, ensuring a healthy channel and price stability, which has resulted in a controlled inventory level of 2-3 months for its core product [7]. Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2024 is projected at 5.217 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 5.3%, while 2025 is expected to see a revenue drop of 41.7% [3]. - The net profit for 2024 is estimated at 1.341 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 5.7%, while 2025 is expected to see a significant decline of 70.8% [3]. - Earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is forecasted to be 0.80 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 50 [3][7]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is focusing on product upgrades and refined channel management, with a dual-brand strategy to enhance brand image and product recognition [7]. - The core product, "Zhen Niang Ba Hao," maintains a price range of 250-300 yuan, which is expected to support a gradual recovery in demand [7]. - The company anticipates that while the first quarter of 2026 may still face pressure, there is potential for marginal improvement in operations by the second quarter due to low base effects [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, the mainland bond market is expected to maintain a low - interest - rate environment. "Going outbound" to seek high - coupon bonds remains one of the main demands of non - bank institutions. The new "Southbound Connect" policy may be gradually implemented, so investors can actively focus on the Hong Kong bond market to further explore investment value [2]. - The expansion of the "Southbound Connect" mechanism will significantly broaden the channels for non - bank institutions such as securities firms, funds, insurance companies, and bank wealth management to participate in the Hong Kong bond market. It is recommended to focus on the investment opportunities of dim sum bonds, which have been continuously expanding in recent years, and Chinese - funded US dollar bonds with a large outstanding scale [8]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Hong Kong Bond Market Development History and Outstanding Structure Characteristics 3.1.1 Development History: From Dominated by US Dollar Bonds to the Rise of RMB Bonds - The Hong Kong bond market can be divided into three development stages. Before 2015, it was in a slow - development stage, with the issuance scale growing from $100 million in 1989 to $103.3 billion in 2014, mainly corporate bonds. After the launch of the "Government Bond Program" in 2009, the issuance scale of government bonds began to increase [3][15]. - From 2015 - 2021, it experienced rapid development, with the issuance scale growing from $188.5 billion to $499.4 billion. The proportion of government bonds increased, mainly due to the growth of Hong Kong government retail bonds. US dollar bonds also grew rapidly because of the relaxation of overseas debt issuance regulations by the mainland [3][16]. - Since 2022, the total market has been in a stable development stage, but the internal structure has changed. The scale of US dollar bonds has decreased significantly due to tightened mainland regulations and the Fed's interest - rate hikes, while RMB bonds have developed rapidly due to China's loose monetary environment and central government policies [4][17]. 3.1.2 Outstanding Structure Characteristics: Chinese Issuers Account for 80%, and the Financial Industry Dominates - As of the end of 2024, the outstanding scales of Hong Kong dollar bonds, offshore RMB bonds, and G3 currency bonds in the Hong Kong bond market were $195.5 billion, $173.2 billion, and $565.6 billion respectively, with corporate bonds accounting for over 70% in each category [24]. - Currently, the total outstanding bond scale in the Hong Kong market is about $1.05 trillion. About 80% of the issuers are from China, about 65% of the remaining maturities are within 3 years, the financial industry accounts for half of the market, and the currency is mainly US dollars [4][25]. 3.2 Hong Kong Bond Market Liquidity and Investor Participation - In terms of liquidity, before the end of 2020, the average daily trading volume of bonds托管 and settled by the CMU system was stable at around HK$5 billion. Since 2021, the launch of the "Southbound Connect" and the increase in the issuance of RMB bonds have promoted the trading volume to increase to HK$20 - 25 billion, and the average daily turnover rate has risen from about 0.5% to around 1% [5][37]. - In terms of investor structure, asset management institutions, banks, and hedge funds hold 75%, 9%, and 7% of the outstanding bond balances with available holder data respectively. Holders are mainly distributed in the United States, Luxembourg, and China, and foreign - funded enterprises such as BlackRock, Nomura, and HSBC have relatively large management scales [5][41][44]. 3.3 Participation Opportunities in the Hong Kong Bond Market under the Expansion of the Bond "Southbound Connect" Mechanism 3.3.1 Chinese - funded Overseas Bonds: There are Obvious Excess Spreads, with Priority Focused on - Dim sum bonds: There are opportunities for spread compression in various types of urban investment bonds and high - grade industrial bonds. The outstanding dim sum bonds in the Hong Kong market are 1,376, with a balance of about 1.47 trillion yuan. The excess spreads of high - grade urban investment and industrial bonds are mostly between 100 - 150BP, and the spreads of low - grade urban investment bonds are mostly between 200 - 400BP [50]. - Chinese - funded US dollar bonds: The excess spreads of all varieties compared with domestic bonds are over 200BP. There are 1,066 outstanding Chinese - funded US dollar bonds in the Hong Kong market, with a balance of about $352.7 billion. The excess spreads of high - grade urban investment and industrial bonds are mostly between 200 - 300BP, and those of low - grade bonds are over 300BP [53]. - Sub - varieties investment suggestions: For urban investment overseas bonds, select bonds with a maturity of less than 3 years, a yield of over 4%, a subject rating of AA+ or above, and a bond balance of over 300 million yuan/dollars. For industrial overseas bonds, focus on central and state - owned enterprise bonds, and be cautious about the real - estate industry. For financial overseas bonds, pay attention to the overseas bonds of industries such as banks and AMCs [9][57][58]. 3.3.2 Overseas Bonds of Hong Kong, Macao, Taiwan, and Foreign - funded Enterprises: Focus on High - Quality Entities with Large Outstanding Scales and High Coupons - Consider overseas bonds issued by Hong Kong, Macao, Taiwan, and foreign - funded enterprises with large outstanding scales and high coupon yields, such as Hong Kong Mortgage Corporation Limited, Hong Kong Airport Authority, and Qatar Petroleum. These bonds generally have an average yield or coupon rate of over 3% and have certain allocation value. However, credit research and risk screening of the issuers are required before investment [6][10][62].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The issuance of the "Corporate Sustainability Disclosure Standards No. 1 - Climate (Trial)" aims to standardize corporate sustainability information disclosure and promote sustainable development in economic, social, and environmental aspects [8][10] - Green loans in China have maintained a high growth rate of over 20% for the past five years, with a balance of 43.51 trillion yuan as of Q3 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 22.9% [13] - The report highlights the importance of ESG (Environmental, Social, and Governance) practices in driving sustainable development and the increasing integration of ESG into corporate strategies [17] Industry Development Dynamics Policy Dynamics - The "Corporate Sustainability Disclosure Standards No. 1 - Climate (Trial)" was released on December 25, 2025, to regulate corporate sustainability disclosures [8] - The National Development and Reform Commission encourages the collaborative construction of national computing hubs and clean energy bases to enhance infrastructure integration and modernization [11] Industry Hotspots - The People's Bank of China reported that green loans have consistently grown at over 20% annually, significantly outpacing other loan growth rates [13] - A public letter published in the Indianapolis Star urged major tech companies like Amazon and Google to use clean energy for their data centers to meet climate goals [14] - The "2025 China ESG Top 100" list was released, showcasing leading companies in finance and consumer sectors that are integrating sustainability into their core strategies [16] Industry Practices - The World Wildlife Fund (WWF) and Yili's brand Jindian have collaborated for nearly a decade to promote sustainable practices in the dairy industry, focusing on wetland protection and grassland restoration [18] - BMW Group aims to reduce lifecycle carbon emissions by at least 60 million tons by 2035, with a focus on localized green innovation in the Chinese market [20] Institutional and Expert Opinions - Wang Zhongmin emphasized that AI's future is tied to ESG, highlighting the need for green energy in AI development [21] - Vuk Jeremic stressed the importance of multilateral cooperation for sustainable development amidst geopolitical challenges [22] ESG Capital Market Dynamics Index Performance - As of January 18, 2026, major ESG indices have outperformed the market, with the Sci-Tech ESG index rising by 17.6% [23] Public Funds - Approximately 65 ESG-themed public funds exist, with a total net asset of 36.3 billion yuan as of January 18, 2026 [25] Bonds - As of January 18, 2026, there are 2,750 ESG bonds with a total balance of 39,355 billion yuan, with a significant portion being financial bonds [32] Bank Wealth Management - There are 582 ESG-themed bank wealth management products, with 100 new products launched in December and January [35]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The issuance of the "Corporate Sustainability Disclosure Standards No. 1 - Climate (Trial)" aims to standardize corporate sustainability information disclosure and promote sustainable development in economic, social, and environmental aspects [8][10] - Green loans in China have maintained a high growth rate of over 20% for the past five years, with a balance of 43.51 trillion yuan as of Q3 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 22.9% [13] - The report highlights the importance of collaboration between technology giants and clean energy initiatives to meet climate goals, as emphasized in an open letter urging companies like Amazon and Google to power their data centers with clean energy [14][15] Industry Development Dynamics Policy Dynamics - The "Corporate Sustainability Disclosure Standards No. 1 - Climate (Trial)" was released on December 25, 2025, to regulate corporate sustainability disclosures [8] - The National Development and Reform Commission encourages the integration of national computing hubs with clean energy bases to enhance infrastructure and promote modernization [11] Industry Hotspots - The People's Bank of China reported that green loans have consistently grown at over 20% annually, with a balance of 43.51 trillion yuan as of Q3 2025, outpacing overall loan growth by 16.4 percentage points [13] - An open letter published in the Indianapolis Star called for major tech companies to utilize clean energy for their data centers to achieve climate targets [14] - The "2025 China Enterprise ESG Top 100" list was released, showcasing leading companies in finance and consumer sectors that are integrating sustainability into their core strategies [16][17] Industry Practices - The World Wildlife Fund (WWF) and Yili's brand Jindian have collaborated for nearly a decade to promote sustainable practices in the dairy industry, focusing on wetland protection and grassland restoration [18][19] - BMW Group aims to reduce lifecycle carbon emissions by at least 60 million tons by 2035, with a focus on localized green innovation in the Chinese market [20] Institutional and Expert Perspectives - Wang Zhongmin, former vice chairman of the National Social Security Fund, stated that AI's future is tied to ESG, emphasizing the need for green energy in AI development [21] - Vuk Jeremic, chairman of the Center for Sustainable Development, highlighted the importance of multilateral cooperation for achieving global sustainability goals amid geopolitical challenges [22] ESG Capital Market Dynamics Index Performance - As of January 18, 2026, most major ESG indices outperformed the market, with the Sci-Tech ESG Index rising by 17.6% [23] Public Funds - There are approximately 65 ESG-themed public funds with a total net asset of 36.3 billion yuan as of January 18, 2026, with one new fund launched in December and January [25] Bonds - As of January 18, 2026, there are 2,750 ESG bonds with a total balance of 39,355 billion yuan, with a significant decline in net financing due to increased repayment amounts [29][32] Bank Wealth Management - There are 582 ESG-themed bank wealth management products, with 100 new products launched in December and January [35]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the express delivery industry, indicating an expected increase in the industry index exceeding the benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 3-6 months [1][33]. Core Insights - The express delivery industry experienced a slowdown in growth in December, with significant differentiation in brand growth rates. The report highlights the need to focus on the "Gain Plan" of SF Express to optimize its structure [1]. - In December, the year-on-year growth rates for business volume were as follows: Shentong (11.1%) > SF Express (9.3%) > YTO (9.0%) > Yunda (-7.4%). For the cumulative year-on-year growth from January to December, the rates were: SF Express (25.4%) > YTO (17.2%) > Shentong (15.0%) > Yunda (7.6%) [6][8]. - Revenue growth in December showed Shentong leading with a year-on-year increase of 28.2%, followed by YTO (7.5%), SF Express (3.8%), and Yunda (-1.5%). The cumulative revenue growth for the year was: Shentong (17.6%) > YTO (12.3%) > SF Express (10.9%) > Yunda (4.7%) [6][8]. Summary by Sections Industry Basic Data - The total market value of the express delivery industry is approximately 314.61 billion yuan, with a circulating market value of about 302.76 billion yuan [3]. Company Performance - SF Express reported a single ticket revenue of 13.81 yuan in December, a year-on-year decrease of 5.1%. In contrast, Shentong's single ticket revenue was 2.33 yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 15.4% [8]. - The report notes that Shentong's acquisition of Daniao Logistics has positively impacted its revenue growth, with the company expected to benefit from network synergies [6]. Strategic Developments - SF Express has entered a strategic partnership with J&T Express, enhancing its operational capabilities by combining its cross-border advantages with J&T's end capabilities. This collaboration aims to create a more efficient and resilient end-to-end fulfillment system [6]. - The report emphasizes the potential for continued investment opportunities in SF Express, particularly through its "Gain Plan" and collaboration with J&T Express, which is expected to optimize its operational structure and improve cash flow sustainability [6].

公司研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 浙江荣泰（603119）深度研究报告 推荐（首次） 全球云母绝缘制品领先者，机器人业务打开 新成长空间 [ReportFinancialIndex] 主要财务指标 | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万) | 1,135 | 1,567 | 2,433 | 3,416 | | 同比增速(%) | 41.8% | 38.1% | 55.3% | 40.4% | | 归母净利润(百万) | 230 | 319 | 492 | 671 | | 同比增速(%) | 34.0% | 38.5% | 54.1% | 36.5% | | 每股盈利(元) | 0.63 | 0.88 | 1.35 | 1.85 | | 市盈率(倍) | 187 | 135 | 87 | 64 | | 市净率(倍) | 23.5 | 20.5 | 17.3 | 14.3 | 资料来源：公司公告，华创证券预测 注：股价为 2026 年 1 月 19 日收盘价 汽车零部件Ⅲ 2026 年 01 月 ...