证 券 研 究 报 告 中金公司（03908.HK）2025 年中报点评 推荐（维持） 净利润同比+94%，各业务同比改善明显 目标价：24.11 港元 事项： 点评： ROE 同比提升明显，杠杆倍数维持平稳，净利润率提升明显。公司报告期内 ROE 为 3.6%，同比+1.5pct。单季度 ROE 为 1.9%，环比+0.2pct，同比+1pct， 杜邦拆分来看： 1）公司报告期末财务杠杆倍数（总资产剔除客户资金）为：4.58 倍，同比+0.01 倍，环比+0 倍。 2）公司报告期内资产周转率（总资产剔除客户资金，总营收剔除其他业务收 入后）为 2.4%，同比+0.5pct，单季度资产周转率为 1.3%，环比+0.2pct，同比 +0.3pct。 3）公司报告期内净利润率为 33.8%，同比+8.7pct，单季度净利润率为 32.3%， 环比-3.5pct，同比+12.6pct。 拆分来看：1）公司自营业务收入（公允价值变动+投资净收益-联营合营企业 投资净收益）合计为 72.5 亿元，单季度为 38.6 亿元，环比+4.6 亿元。单季度 自营收益率为 1.3%，环比+0.1pct，同比+0.4pct。 对比 ...

Investment Rating - The report upgrades the investment rating of Dongfang Cable to "Strong Buy" [2][8]. Core Views - The company has a backlog of nearly 20 billion yuan in orders, with accelerated progress in offshore wind projects [2][8]. - For the first half of 2025, the company reported total revenue of 4.432 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.95%, while net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 26.57% to 473 million yuan [2][8]. - The decline in net profit is attributed to changes in product delivery structure and a significant asset disposal gain in the previous year [8]. Financial Summary - **Revenue Forecast**: Projected revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 11.091 billion yuan, 13.210 billion yuan, and 15.527 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 22.0%, 19.1%, and 17.5% [4][9]. - **Net Profit Forecast**: Expected net profits for the same years are 1.576 billion yuan, 2.019 billion yuan, and 2.509 billion yuan, with growth rates of 56.3%, 28.1%, and 24.3% [4][9]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: Forecasted EPS for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 2.29 yuan, 2.94 yuan, and 3.65 yuan, respectively [4][9]. - **Valuation Metrics**: The company is expected to trade at price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 25, 20, and 16 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 [4][9]. Business Performance - The company achieved significant revenue growth in its power engineering and equipment cables segment, with a 24.85% year-on-year increase, contributing 49.60% to total revenue [8]. - The underwater cables and high-voltage cables segment also saw an 8.32% increase, accounting for 44.18% of total revenue [8]. - The marine equipment and engineering operations segment experienced a decline of 44.61%, primarily due to reduced high-value marine equipment revenue [8]. Order Backlog and Market Outlook - As of August 12, 2025, the company has an order backlog of approximately 19.6 billion yuan, with significant contributions from various projects, including power engineering and offshore wind projects [8]. - The report anticipates that the delivery of offshore wind projects will significantly increase starting in 2025, supported by the company's strategic partnerships and market expansion efforts [8].

债券研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【债券日报】 转债市场日度跟踪 20250909 市场概况：今日转债跟随正股下跌，估值环比压缩 指数表现：中证转债指数环比下降 0.96%、上证综指环比下降 0.51%、深证成 指环比下降 1.23%、创业板指环比下降 2.23%、上证 50 指数环比下降 0.38%、 中证 1000 指数环比下降 1.16%。 市场风格：大盘价值相对占优。大盘成长环比下降 1.25%、大盘价值环比上涨 0.41%、中盘成长环比下降 0.86%、中盘价值环比下降 0.32%、小盘成长环比 下降 1.01%、小盘价值环比下降 0.06%。 资金表现：转债市场成交情绪减弱。可转债市场成交额为 737.87 亿元，环比 减少 5.80%；万得全 A 总成交额为 21520.80 亿元，环比减少 12.63%；沪深两 市主力净流出 505.34 亿元，十年国债收益率环比上升 1.27bp 至 1.86%。 转债价格：转债中枢下降，高价券占比下降。转债整体收盘价加权平均值为 130.57 元，环比昨日下降 0.93%。其中偏股型转债的收盘价为 171.43 元，环比 下降 1.51%；偏债型转债的收盘 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The pet economy in China is experiencing a high-quality transformation driven by emotional consumption and the integration of emotional value with tangible industries [8][10] - The market for pet dogs and cats in urban areas is projected to reach CNY 300.2 billion in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 13.3% from 2015 to 2024 [10][12] - The global pet economy is highly concentrated, with significant markets in the US, Europe, and Asia, and is expected to grow from USD 207 billion in 2024 to USD 270.8 billion by 2029, with a CAGR of 5.5% [9][11] Summary by Sections Introduction - The report outlines the growth of the pet economy driven by changing lifestyles and emotional consumption needs, highlighting the integration of emotional and tangible aspects in the industry [8] Global Pet Market Overview - The global pet industry is expected to grow from USD 207 billion in 2024 to USD 270.8 billion by 2029, with a CAGR of 5.5% [9] China Pet Dog and Cat Market Overview - The urban pet consumption market in China is projected to reach CNY 300.2 billion in 2024, with a 7.5% year-on-year growth [10] - The average annual consumption per pet dog is CNY 2,961, while for cats it is CNY 2,020, reflecting a steady increase in spending [10] Pet Economy Industry Chain Definition and Layout - The pet economy industry chain includes breeding and trading, food and supplies, and medical and service sectors, reflecting the transformation of emotional value into commercial value [23] Pet Economy Industry Chain Analysis - The overall consumption structure is stabilizing, with pet food leading the market, accounting for 52.8% of the total pet consumption market in 2024 [25] - The upstream sector is transitioning from a rough model to a more standardized approach, with new regulations being introduced [29] - The midstream sector is seeing the rise of domestic brands and the integration of smart products into pet care [31] - The downstream sector is characterized by professional development and the construction of a diversified ecosystem, with a focus on medical services and pet care [47] Policy Support for Industry Development - Local governments are increasingly supporting the pet economy through the establishment of industrial parks and public facilities, aiming for a market scale of over CNY 30 billion by 2027 [55][56] Industry Outlook - The pet industry in China is undergoing a structural transformation, shifting from extensive feeding to refined services, with a focus on quality improvement and standardization [57]

【资产配置快评】2025 年第 40 期 Riders on the Charts: 每周大类资产配置图 表精粹 投资摘要： The time to repair the roof is when the sun is shining. —John Fitzgerald Kennedy 1. 关税冲击导致美国 8 月份就业数据进一步走软 2. 美国企业制造业投资相对占比连续第二季度下降 证 券 研 究 报 告 多资产配置研究 资产配置快评 2025 年 09 月 09 日 原油市场爆发价格战，新兴市场出现系统性金融风险 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：牛播坤 邮箱：niubokun@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360514030002 证券分析师：郭忠良 邮箱：guozhongliang@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360520090002 相关研究报告 《存款搬家与股债跷跷板——总量"创"辩第 110 期》 2025-09-02 《资产配置快评 2025 年第 39 期：Riders on the Charts 每周大类资产配置图表精粹》 2025-09-01 《资产配置快评 2025 年第 38 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 【宏观快评】 出口如何走：从全球制造业领先指标看外需 ——8 月进出口数据点评 事 项 8 月，以美元计价中国出口同比 4.4%，低于彭博一致预期 5%，7 月为 7.2%； 进口同比 1.3%，低于彭博一致预期 3%，7 月为 4.1%。 主要观点 核心观点：1、8 月出口低于我们的预测，主要是我们计入了较高的非美增速 预期，认为其能对冲对美出口下滑的影响，但非洲出口增速实际下降较快。 2、结合环比来看，非洲出口回落背后或确有增长动能的客观趋弱（6 月开始 中国对非洲出口环比持续弱于过去十年同期均值，8 月缺口有所扩大），而除 美国、欧盟、东盟、非洲以外的其他地区出口回落背后或受基数影响较大（8 月出口环比较历史同期均值相差无几）。但，受限于数据可得性，无法对非洲 8 月出口作进一步拆解分析，后续其需求是否持续回落仍待进一步观察。 3、后续出口展望：观察几个全球和欧美的制造业（或者库存周期）的领先指 标，或指向外需整体平稳，后续有望回暖，特别是四季度美国可能释放上行弹 性(图 6-7)。在外需的支撑下，中国出口具备韧性，虽然短期可能基数扰动，导 致同比读数产生起伏，但领先指标指示全年 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 房地产行业周报（2025 年第 36 周） 京沪深陆续放松限购，新房二手房成交环比 推荐（维持） 下降 行业研究 房地产 2025 年 09 月 09 日 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：单戈 | % | 1M | 6M | 12M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 绝对表现 | 4.2% | 5.8% | 31.1% | | 相对表现 | -4.7% | -7.5% | -7.1% | -1% 19% 38% 58% 24/09 24/11 25/01 25/04 25/06 25/09 2024-09-09~2025-09-08 房地产 沪深300 邮箱：shange@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360522110001 证券分析师：许常捷 邮箱：xuchangjie@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360525030002 联系人：杨航 邮箱：yanghang@hcyjs.com 行业基本数据 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数(只) | 107 | 0.01 | | 总市值(亿元) | 12,336.23 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 新宝股份（002705）2025 年半年报点评 推荐（维持） 核心业务强韧性，盈利能力表现良好 目标价：17.60 元 事项： 资料来源：公司公告，华创证券预测 注：股价为 2025 年 9 月 8 日收盘价 公司研究 小家电Ⅲ 2025 年 09 月 09 日 | | | 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：韩星雨 邮箱：hanxingyu@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360525050001 新宝股份发布 2025 年半年报，公司 2025H1 实现营收 78.0 亿元，YoY+1.0%； 实现归母净利润 5.4 亿元，YoY+22.8%。经折算，公司 2025Q2 单季度营收 39.7 亿元，YoY-6.6%；实现归母净利润 3.0 亿元，YoY+9.8%。 评论： [ReportFinancialIndex] 主要财务指标 | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万) | 16,821 | 17,800 | 19,329 | 20,608 | | 同比增速(%) | ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 杠杆资金净流入高位回落 ——流动性&交易拥挤度&投资者温度计周报 2025年9月9日 证券分析师：姚佩 执业编号：S0360522120004 邮箱：yaopei@hcyjs.com 联系人：朱冬墨 邮箱：zhudongmo@hcyjs.com 本报告由华创证券有限责任公司编制 卖的出价或询价。本报告所载信息均为个人观点，并不构成对所涉及证券的个人投资建议。 请仔细阅读PPT后部分的分析师声明及免责声明。 @2021 华创 版权所有 核心结论 证 券 研 究 报 告 • 资金流动性： 证监会审核华创证券投资咨询业务资格批文号：证监许可（2009）1210 号 2 1）资金供给端大幅收窄，杠杆资金净流入大幅下降但仍处于近三年高位，偏股型公募新发持续回暖； 2）资金需求端股权融资与产业资本净减持仍处历史中位，南向资金连续三月周均百亿以上净流入，累计净流入超 3700亿。 • 交易拥挤度：以过去四周成交额占比/市值占比（较全A）作为衡量主题行业交易热度的表征指标来看，本周热度 分位（下同）上行行业主要为：新能源车+21pct至28%、光伏+20pct至53%、电子+13pct至63%；下行行 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Changan Automobile, expecting the stock to outperform the benchmark index by over 20% in the next six months [3][18]. Core Views - Changan Automobile's total sales in August reached 234,000 units, representing a year-on-year increase of 25% and a month-on-month increase of 11%. The company anticipates a steady growth in sales driven by three strategic initiatives [2][3]. - The forecast for Changan's self-owned passenger vehicle sales from 2025 to 2027 is 1.84 million, 2.19 million, and 2.38 million units, with year-on-year growth rates of 10%, 19%, and 9% respectively [3]. - The revenue estimates for 2025-2027 have been adjusted downwards to 168.2 billion, 202.6 billion, and 218 billion yuan, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 5%, 20%, and 8% [3]. - The net profit estimates for the same period have been revised upwards to 7.2 billion, 10.3 billion, and 11.4 billion yuan, with price-to-earnings ratios of 17x, 12x, and 11x respectively [3]. Financial Summary - The total revenue for 2025 is projected at 168.2 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 5.3% [4]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2025 is estimated at 7.2 billion yuan, reflecting a slight decrease of 1% year-on-year [4]. - Earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is expected to be 0.73 yuan, with a price-to-earnings ratio of 17x [4]. - The company’s total market capitalization is approximately 1230.34 billion yuan, with a circulating market value of 1228.85 billion yuan [5]. Sales Performance - In August, Changan's sales were driven by strong performances from its three new energy brands: Qiyuan (37,000 units, +31% month-on-month), Deep Blue (28,000 units, +40% year-on-year), and Avita (11,000 units, +180% year-on-year) [3][8]. - The company expects continued growth in new energy vehicle sales, with a target of 1.03 million units in 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 42% [8]. Strategic Focus - Changan is focusing on three main strategies: new energy, intelligent technology, and global expansion, which are expected to drive both volume and profit growth in 2025 [8]. - The company has initiated a global expansion plan, with a new factory in Thailand expected to add 100,000 units of overseas production capacity [8].