1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report - The pressure on CDs to "increase prices for volume" is relatively controllable, and there's no need to overly worry about banks' liability - side. Despite a significant increase in CD maturities this week and short - term fluctuations in capital prices, CDs did not "increase prices for volume", indicating a strong continuation of long - term bank deposits after maturity. The current capital frictions are mainly short - term, such as new share subscriptions on the Beijing Stock Exchange and delayed reverse repurchase placements. The central bank actively smoothed out capital fluctuations, and CDs are expected to fluctuate around 1.65% with limited price - increasing pressure [2][46]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents Supply: Net financing declines, and the term structure lengthens - This week (January 12 - January 18), CD issuance was 553.58 billion yuan, with a net financing of - 254.88 billion yuan (compared to - 153.30 billion yuan from January 5 - January 11). The issuance proportion of state - owned banks decreased from 19% to 18%, while that of joint - stock banks increased from 11% to 14%, city commercial banks from 44% to 57%, and rural commercial banks from 7% to 9%. The 1M CD issuance proportion dropped from 26% to 8%, while the 3M, 6M, and 9M proportions increased. The weighted issuance term of CDs lengthened to 7.70 months (previously 7.45 months) [2][5]. - Next week (January 19 - January 25), the maturity scale will decline to 681.57 billion yuan, a weekly reduction of 123.80 billion yuan. Maturities are mainly concentrated in state - owned, joint - stock, and city commercial banks. In terms of term, the 3M, 6M, and 1Y CDs have higher maturity amounts, at 163.34 billion yuan, 174.02 billion yuan, and 266.28 billion yuan respectively [2][5]. Demand: Small and medium - sized banks and insurance companies are the main secondary - market allocators, and the primary - market subscription rates vary - In the secondary market, large - scale banks had a net purchase of 26.76 billion yuan this week, small and medium - sized banks had a net purchase of 97.621 billion yuan, wealth management shifted from a net sale of 2.412 billion yuan to a net purchase of 10.777 billion yuan, and money market funds' net sales increased from 57.166 billion yuan to 137.391 billion yuan [2][14]. - In the primary market, the overall market subscription rate (15DMA) decreased from 88% to 87%. Among different institutions, the subscription rate of city commercial banks increased from 81% to 82%, that of joint - stock banks decreased from 89% to 84%, and that of state - owned banks remained at 91% [2][14]. Valuation: The primary - market pricing of CDs shows a divergent trend, and most of the secondary - market pricing declines - In primary - market pricing, the weighted issuance rate of 1Y state - owned bank CDs remained around 1.62%. Specifically, the 1M variety decreased by 9bp, the 3M increased by 3bp, the 6M increased by 1bp, and the 9M and 1Y remained unchanged. The 1Y - 3M term spread of joint - stock banks decreased by 5bp, at the 9% historical quantile. The 1Y credit spread between city commercial banks and joint - stock banks widened from 8.88BP to 9.46BP, at around the 12% quantile, while that between rural commercial banks and joint - stock banks narrowed from 16.17BP to 7.33BP, also around the 12% quantile [2][17]. - In secondary - market yields, most yields of AAA - rated CDs declined. The 1M, 6M, 9M, and 1Y varieties each decreased by 1BP compared to last week, the 3M remained unchanged, and the 1Y remained at the 2% historical quantile since 2019. The 1Y - 3M term spread of AAA - rated CDs remained at the 11% historical quantile [2][29]. Comparison: The spread between CDs and treasury bonds widens - The spread between the 1Y AAA - rated CD yield and the DR007:15DMA capital spread narrowed from 12.32BP to 8.91BP, and the spread with the R007:15DMA capital spread narrowed from 1.56BP to - 0.52BP. The 1Y treasury bond yield decreased by 4.63BP, and the spread between CDs and treasury bonds widened from 34.38BP to 38.26BP, with the quantile rising to around 39%. The spread between CDs and China Development Bank bonds narrowed from 5.46BP to 3.08BP, with the quantile dropping to around 2%. Additionally, the spread between AAA medium - and short - term commercial paper and CDs widened from 6.13BP to 7.36BP, with the quantile rising to around 34% [2][34].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the mechanical industry, with a focus on mining equipment, AI devices, and consumables [1]. Core Insights - The mechanical industry is expected to enter a new recovery cycle driven by monetary and fiscal policies, with significant capital expenditure anticipated in mining due to rising prices of non-ferrous metals [6][8]. - The AI sector is experiencing rapid growth, leading to increased demand for high-performance servers, GPUs, and advanced PCBs, which are critical for AI applications [6][20]. - The report highlights key companies in various segments, including industrial control, robotics, machine tools, and testing industries, suggesting a broad range of investment opportunities [6][8]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The mechanical industry comprises 636 listed companies with a total market capitalization of approximately 70,956.73 billion yuan and a circulating market value of about 58,998.75 billion yuan [3]. Company Profit Forecasts and Valuations - Several companies are highlighted with strong profit forecasts and investment ratings, including: - Huichuan Technology (300124.SZ): EPS forecasted at 2.11 yuan for 2025, with a strong buy rating [2]. - Falan Technology (603966.SH): EPS forecasted at 0.60 yuan for 2025, with a strong buy rating [2]. - Xinjie Electric (603416.SH): EPS forecasted at 1.83 yuan for 2025, with a strong buy rating [2]. - Other notable mentions include companies like Anhui Heli (600761.SH) and Sany Heavy Industry (600031.SH), both receiving strong buy ratings [2]. Market Performance - The mechanical sector has shown a positive performance with a 1.4% increase in the index, while the overall market performance varied across different indices [10][13]. - The 3C equipment segment experienced the highest growth at 14.4%, indicating strong demand in this area [11]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies that are well-positioned to benefit from the AI wave, such as: - Dingtai High-Tech and Zhongtung High-Tech in the consumables sector [20][21]. - Dazhu CNC and Xinqi Micro-Assembly in the equipment sector [20]. - The report emphasizes the importance of high-end equipment and consumables in the PCB market, projecting significant growth in this area [20][21]. Key Data Tracking - The report includes macroeconomic indicators and industry-specific data, such as the manufacturing PMI and fixed asset investment growth rates, which are crucial for understanding the industry's health [32][36].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for the computer industry, expecting significant growth in the upcoming months [1]. Core Insights - The commercial aerospace sector is experiencing a resonance between domestic and international policies, leading to continuous catalysts for growth. The report anticipates that low-orbit satellites will gradually achieve regular networking, and commercial rockets will accelerate breakthroughs in reusable technology [4]. - The report highlights the successful static fire test of the Long March 12B rocket, which is a new generation reusable rocket with a payload capacity of 20 tons to low Earth orbit, indicating advancements in China's commercial launch capabilities [4]. - Multiple annual launch plans for reusable rockets have been announced, showcasing the rapid development and testing of various private rocket companies [4]. - The report notes the acceleration of IPOs for commercial rocket companies, indicating a growing interest and investment in the sector [4]. - The establishment of the "Rocket Street" project in Beijing is highlighted as a significant milestone in the commercial aerospace field, providing a comprehensive testing and research base for the industry [4]. - Investment suggestions include focusing on satellite manufacturing, satellite operation, rocket launch, satellite applications, and various components and services related to the aerospace industry [4]. Industry Data - The computer industry consists of 338 listed companies with a total market capitalization of 66,135.69 billion and a circulating market value of 59,636.21 billion [1]. - The absolute performance of the industry over the past 12 months is reported at 49.0%, with a relative performance of 24.5% compared to the benchmark index [2].

Group 1 - The spring market rally has entered its second half, characterized by reduced trading volume and rising prices, as regulatory signals promote a return to rationality in the market [4][6][10] - The average maximum increase of the Shanghai Composite Index during the past 16 spring rallies was 15.8%, while the current rally has seen a maximum increase of 9.8%, indicating potential for further price increases [10][12] - Economic data is showing positive trends, with expectations for a continued rally supported by improving PPI figures and favorable policies from the government [10][20] Group 2 - The focus of the market is shifting from risk appetite to earnings growth, with a notable increase in the proportion of companies reporting positive earnings forecasts, reaching 37.8% as of January 17 [13][19] - The reduction in competitive pressure (internal competition) is leading to a significant increase in the proportion of companies with improved earnings, particularly in industries such as steel, construction materials, and media [20][22] - The overall improvement in earnings among non-financial companies in the A-share market is evident, with a 5.8% increase in the proportion of companies reporting positive net profit growth [20][22] Group 3 - Investment recommendations focus on sectors with strong earnings growth expectations, including non-bank financials, cyclical industries, and technology innovation [23][24] - Non-bank financials have shown the highest proportion of earnings revisions, with a 400% increase in companies adjusting their profit forecasts positively [23][24] - Cyclical sectors such as materials and energy are expected to benefit from fiscal stimulus and demand-side support, with significant upward revisions in profit forecasts [23][24]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook for the automotive industry, expecting a rebound in vehicle sales in Q1 and focusing on investments in intelligent driving, robotics, and liquid cooling technologies [3]. Core Insights - The automotive sector is experiencing significant dynamics, including sales, pricing, exports, and robotics developments [2]. - The report highlights that January's early sales data shows a substantial year-on-year decline, primarily due to subsidy reductions and rising vehicle prices, leading to consumer hesitation [5]. - The report anticipates that the pressure on vehicle prices will be managed through strict enforcement of anti-competitive practices, aiming to stabilize prices and profit margins [5]. - The export market is expected to grow rapidly, supported by agreements that lower trade barriers for electric vehicles, enhancing profitability for manufacturers and dealers [5]. - The robotics sector is gaining traction, with the Optimus V3 generating market excitement and expectations for product launches [5]. Data Tracking - In early January, the average discount rate remained stable, with a 9.6% increase year-on-year, and the average discount amount reached 22,259 yuan, up by 2,192 yuan year-on-year [4]. - December's wholesale vehicle sales were reported at 2.85 million units, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 8.7% and a month-on-month decline of 6.3% [4]. - Notable sales performance in December included significant year-on-year growth for new energy vehicle manufacturers like NIO and Li Auto, while traditional automakers like SAIC and Changan showed mixed results [6]. Industry News - The report discusses various industry developments, including the price commitments for electric vehicles between China and Europe, which aim to facilitate trade [27]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is focusing on enhancing the competitiveness of the new energy vehicle sector and regulating market practices to prevent price wars [27]. - Recent data indicates a significant drop in retail sales of passenger vehicles in early January, with a 32% year-on-year decline [27]. Market Performance - The automotive sector saw a weekly increase of 0.71%, ranking 8th out of 29 sectors, while the overall market indices showed mixed results [10].

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Volume Model - **Construction Idea**: The model uses trading volume data to predict market trends - **Construction Process**: The model analyzes the trading volume of various broad-based indices to determine market sentiment. If the trading volume increases significantly, it indicates a bullish trend - **Evaluation**: The model is effective in capturing short-term market movements based on trading volume[1][14] 2. Model Name: Feature Longhu Board Institution Model - **Construction Idea**: This model uses institutional trading data from the Longhu Board to predict market trends - **Construction Process**: The model tracks the trading activities of institutions listed on the Longhu Board. A higher level of institutional buying indicates a bullish trend - **Evaluation**: The model is useful for understanding the impact of institutional trading on market trends[1][14] 3. Model Name: Feature Volume Model - **Construction Idea**: Similar to the Volume Model, this model uses specific volume features to predict market trends - **Construction Process**: The model analyzes specific volume features such as spikes or drops in trading volume to determine market sentiment - **Evaluation**: The model provides additional insights by focusing on specific volume features rather than overall volume[1][14] 4. Model Name: Intelligent Algorithm Model (CSI 300 and CSI 500) - **Construction Idea**: The model uses machine learning algorithms to predict market trends for the CSI 300 and CSI 500 indices - **Construction Process**: The model employs various machine learning techniques to analyze historical data and predict future trends for the CSI 300 and CSI 500 indices - **Evaluation**: The model is effective in capturing complex patterns and trends in the market using advanced algorithms[1][14] 5. Model Name: Limit Up and Down Model - **Construction Idea**: The model uses the frequency of limit up and down events to predict market trends - **Construction Process**: The model tracks the number of stocks hitting their daily limit up or down to gauge market sentiment. A higher number of limit up events indicates a bullish trend - **Evaluation**: The model is useful for capturing extreme market movements and sentiment[1][15] 6. Model Name: Up and Down Return Difference Model - **Construction Idea**: The model uses the difference between upward and downward returns to predict market trends - **Construction Process**: The model calculates the difference between the returns of stocks moving up and those moving down. A positive difference indicates a bullish trend - **Evaluation**: The model provides a balanced view of market sentiment by considering both upward and downward movements[1][15] 7. Model Name: Calendar Effect Model - **Construction Idea**: The model uses calendar-based patterns to predict market trends - **Construction Process**: The model analyzes historical data to identify recurring patterns based on the calendar, such as monthly or quarterly trends - **Evaluation**: The model is useful for capturing seasonal trends and patterns in the market[1][15] 8. Model Name: Long-term Momentum Model - **Construction Idea**: The model uses long-term momentum to predict market trends - **Construction Process**: The model tracks the long-term momentum of stocks to determine market sentiment. A positive momentum indicates a bullish trend - **Evaluation**: The model is effective in capturing long-term trends and movements in the market[1][16] 9. Model Name: Comprehensive Weapon V3 Model - **Construction Idea**: The model combines multiple indicators and models to provide a comprehensive market prediction - **Construction Process**: The model integrates various short-term, medium-term, and long-term models to generate a comprehensive market outlook - **Evaluation**: The model provides a holistic view of the market by combining multiple indicators and models[1][17] 10. Model Name: Comprehensive National Certificate 2000 Model - **Construction Idea**: Similar to the Comprehensive Weapon V3 Model, this model focuses on the National Certificate 2000 index - **Construction Process**: The model integrates various indicators and models specifically for the National Certificate 2000 index - **Evaluation**: The model is effective in providing a comprehensive outlook for the National Certificate 2000 index[1][17] Model Backtesting Results - **Volume Model**: All broad-based indices are bullish[1][14] - **Feature Longhu Board Institution Model**: Bullish[1][14] - **Feature Volume Model**: Bullish[1][14] - **Intelligent Algorithm Model (CSI 300)**: Bullish[1][14] - **Intelligent Algorithm Model (CSI 500)**: Bullish[1][14] - **Limit Up and Down Model**: Bullish[1][15] - **Up and Down Return Difference Model**: All broad-based indices are bullish[1][15] - **Calendar Effect Model**: Neutral[1][15] - **Long-term Momentum Model**: Neutral[1][16] - **Comprehensive Weapon V3 Model**: Bullish[1][17] - **Comprehensive National Certificate 2000 Model**: Bullish[1][17]

Group 1: Credit Strategy - The report emphasizes a focus on high convexity coupon products across different maturities, suggesting a strategic allocation from short to long durations [11][19] - The credit bond market has seen a general decline in yields, with a divergence in credit spreads, indicating a mixed performance among different bond types [11][6] - The current market conditions present an important window for coupon allocation, particularly in the 3.5-4y, 5.5-6y, and 7.5-8y segments [19][32] Group 2: Market Overview - The yield for 1-year short-term bonds is currently in the range of 1.70%-1.80%, which is approximately 7-9 basis points higher than similar maturity certificates of deposit, indicating a favorable comparison [25][30] - For 2-3 year bonds, the yields are between 1.80%-2.15%, with spreads expected to remain low, making them attractive for investment [26][30] - The 4-5 year bonds show high convexity, with a focus on the value of public bonds, as their spreads have widened slightly, improving their relative value [29][32] Group 3: Policy and Events - The National Development and Reform Commission has issued guidelines for government investment funds, marking a systematic approach to fund allocation and investment focus [4] - Regulatory bodies are facilitating loan extensions for real estate companies, which is expected to improve their cash flow and market expectations [4] - Vanke has proposed multiple debt restructuring plans, indicating proactive measures to reach consensus with creditors [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for the banking sector [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights a slowdown in social financing growth, indicating that credit remains strong for enterprises but weak for households [1]. - In December 2025, the social financing growth rate decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 8.3%, continuing the trend observed in the second half of 2025 [4]. - The report emphasizes that government bonds are the main support for social financing, contributing significantly to the overall increase in financing [4]. - The investment logic for 2026 is expected to shift from purely defensive to a combination of dividends and growth, with a focus on banks with high dividends and low valuations [5]. Summary by Sections Industry Basic Data - The banking sector consists of 42 listed companies with a total market capitalization of approximately 1.15 trillion yuan and a circulating market value of about 790 billion yuan [1]. Market Performance - The absolute performance of the banking sector over the past month is 5.0%, with a relative performance of 2.8% compared to the broader market [2]. Financing and Credit Data - In December 2025, new social financing amounted to 2.21 trillion yuan, which is a year-on-year decrease of 646.2 billion yuan, primarily due to a reduction in government bonds [4]. - The report notes that new RMB loans in December were 910 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 80 billion yuan, with household loans showing a negative growth trend [4]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on three main investment lines: state-owned banks and large commercial banks, quality joint-stock banks and city commercial banks with strong performance, and city commercial banks benefiting from regional policies [5]. - Specific banks recommended for investment include China Merchants Bank, CITIC Bank, Ping An Bank, and several city commercial banks [5].

- The report introduces a "Total Heat Indicator" for monitoring market sentiment, which aggregates the heat indicators of individual stocks within broad-based indices, industries, and concepts[10][11] - The "Total Heat Indicator" is defined as the sum of the browsing, self-selection, and click counts of a stock, normalized by its market share on the same day, and then multiplied by 10,000, with a value range of [0,10000][10] - The report constructs a simple rotation strategy based on the weekly heat change rate (MA2) of broad-based indices, buying the index with the highest heat change rate at the end of each week, and staying out of the market if the "Others" group has the highest change rate[16][18] - The rotation strategy based on the heat change rate (MA2) of broad-based indices has an annualized return of 8.74% since 2017, with a maximum drawdown of 23.5%, and a return of 2.1% in 2026[19] - The report also constructs two simple portfolios based on the heat change rate of concepts, selecting the top 10 and bottom 10 stocks by total heat within the top 5 concepts with the highest heat change rate each week, and holding them equally[35] - The "BOTTOM" portfolio of low-heat stocks within high-heat concepts has historically achieved an annualized return of 15.71% with a maximum drawdown of 28.89%[37]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the consumer services industry, indicating an expectation that the industry index will exceed the benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 3-6 months [45]. Core Insights - The State Council's recent meeting emphasized the implementation of consumption-boosting policies, which are expected to enhance the strategic position of service consumption as a key driver of domestic demand and economic growth [4][5]. - The report highlights the government's support for new business models and quality service supply, particularly in sectors like culture, tourism, and sports, which are seen as areas with significant growth potential [4]. - The anticipated policies are expected to release consumer spending potential in leisure and tourism, providing substantial benefits to the industry [4]. - The consumer services sector showed a weekly increase of 1.53%, outperforming the overall market indices, with notable performances from companies like Haidilao and Alibaba [7][19]. Industry Data - The consumer services industry consists of 55 listed companies with a total market capitalization of approximately 498.8 billion yuan and a circulating market value of about 457.1 billion yuan [1]. - The absolute performance of the industry over the past month was -7.7%, while the relative performance was -6.9% compared to the benchmark [2]. Market Performance - The consumer services sector's weekly performance was 1.53%, compared to a decline of 0.57% for the CSI 300 index and a 0.51% increase for the overall A-share market [7]. - The report notes that the sector's stocks, such as Haidilao and Alibaba, have shown significant gains, indicating a positive market sentiment towards the consumer services industry [4][19]. Upcoming Events - Several companies in the consumer services sector are scheduled to hold shareholder meetings in the coming month, including Dalian Shengya on February 2, Qujiang Cultural Tourism on January 22, and Chuangye Heima on January 21 [26].