债券研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【债券日报】 地缘冲击暂不明朗，降息仍需等待——美联 储 3 月议息会议点评 1）经济增速方面，上调 2026-2028 年以及更长期的 GDP 增长预期。预计 2026 年、2027 年、2028 年和更长期的实际 GDP 增速分别为 2.4%（前值 2.3%）、 2.3%（前值 2.0%）、2.1%（前值 1.9%）、2.0%（前值 1.8%）。 2）就业方面，上调 2027 年的失业率预期。2026 年和 2028 年失业率水平分别 持平为 4.4%、4.2%，2027 年失业率上调 0.1 个百分点至 4.3%。 3）通胀方面，上调今明年的 PCE 通胀以及核心 PCE 通胀预期。2026 年 PCE 和核心 PCE 预期分别上调 0.3 个百分点、0.2 个百分点至 2.7%、2.7%，2027 年 PCE 通胀与核心 PCE 通胀预期均上调 0.1 个百分点为 2.2%、2.2%。 4）点阵图方面，3 月点阵图预计 2026 年、2027 年各降息一次，中值与 12 月 持平。3 月点阵图美联储对于今明后三年的利率展望基本维持，意味着 2026 年、2027 年仅 ...

1、地方城投退出和转型情况如何？结合地方两会，2025 年，内蒙古融资平台 压降 87%、辽宁压降 85.2%、甘肃压降 81.3%、安徽压降 80%以上、江西退出 346 家、湖南退出 304 家、河南退出 251 家、陕西 170 家、天津 53 家、宁夏 融资平台数量明显下降。2026 年，多省表示，继续加快融资平台有序退出和 实质性转型，严禁新设或异化产生各类融资平台。 证 券 研 究 报 告 【债券深度报告】 城投转型背景下的"类城投"发债新面孔 ❖ 2025 年至今，新增了不少"类城投"的首发债主体，其主营业务与之前城投公 司类似或由其业务转型发展而来，但不承担政府融资职能，主要包括城市运营、 产投及国资运营主体等，为"资产荒"下的信用债市场带来了一定投资增量。 我们将在此前推出的【华创固收 3802 家城投主体名单】基础上新增【"类城 投"主体名单】，以助力把握市场增量投资机会。 ❖ 一、城投公司退出与转型：政策要求与地方经济发展的必由之路 2023 年以来，中央层面大力推进城投剥离政府融资职能，推动市场化转型进 程。三年过去，城投退出和转型也取得显著成效，2025 年末已有 70%的城投 实现 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for Li Auto-W (02015.HK) [1] Core Views - Li Auto reported a net profit of 0.2 billion yuan in Q4 2025, marking a year-on-year decline of 35 billion yuan but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 6.4 billion yuan. The total revenue for Q4 2025 was 28.8 billion yuan, down 35% year-on-year but up 5.2% quarter-on-quarter. For the full year 2025, revenue was 112.3 billion yuan, a 22% decline year-on-year, with a net profit of 1.1 billion yuan, down 69 billion yuan year-on-year [1][7] Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue and Profitability**: - Q4 2025 revenue was 28.8 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decrease of 35% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 5.2%. The full-year revenue for 2025 was 112.3 billion yuan, down 22% year-on-year. The net profit for Q4 2025 was 0.2 billion yuan, a decrease of 35 billion yuan year-on-year but an increase of 6.4 billion yuan quarter-on-quarter [1][7] - **Sales Volume**: - In Q4 2025, the sales volume was 109,000 vehicles, down 31% year-on-year but up 17% quarter-on-quarter. The average selling price (ASP) for vehicles was 250,000 yuan, down 19,000 yuan year-on-year and 28,000 yuan quarter-on-quarter [1][7] - **Gross Margin**: - The gross margin for Q4 2025 was 17.8%, a decrease of 2.4 percentage points year-on-year but an increase of 1.5 percentage points quarter-on-quarter. The vehicle gross margin was 16.8%, down 2.9 percentage points year-on-year but up 1.3 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [1][7] - **Cost and Expenses**: - R&D expense ratio was 10.5%, up 5.0 percentage points year-on-year, while SG&A expense ratio was 9.2%, up 2.2 percentage points year-on-year [1][7] Future Outlook - **New Model Launches**: - The company plans to launch a new generation of L9 and a new version of L9 Livis in Q2 2026, with the L9 Livis priced at 559,800 yuan. The i6 model is expected to contribute significantly to sales in 2026, with monthly delivery capacity projected to reach 20,000 units [1][7] - **Organizational Improvements**: - Li Auto has restructured its R&D organization to enhance efficiency and reduce the iteration cycle for AI model training from two weeks to one day. Sales channel reforms are also underway to improve operational quality [1][7] - **Sales and Revenue Forecasts**: - The sales forecasts for 2026-2027 have been adjusted down to 500,000 and 520,000 vehicles, respectively. Revenue forecasts for the same period have been revised to 131.3 billion and 140.2 billion yuan. Net profit forecasts have also been adjusted to 0.96 billion and 3.81 billion yuan for 2026 and 2027, respectively [1][7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for the real estate sector [2] Core Insights - New and second-hand housing transactions have increased on a month-on-month basis, with new housing transactions up by 42% and second-hand housing transactions up by 25% in the latest week [5][19] - The report highlights ongoing challenges in the real estate market, including a decline in new housing demand, unresolved inventory issues, and the negative impact of land finance on the economy [5][19] Industry Data - The total number of listed companies in the real estate sector is 107, with a total market capitalization of approximately 1,216.63 billion and a circulating market capitalization of about 1,165.62 billion [2] - The real estate index fell by 0.5% in the latest week, ranking 14th among 31 primary industry sectors [8][10] Sales Performance - In the latest week, the average daily transaction area for new homes in 20 monitored cities was 24.5 million square meters, with a total transaction area of 172 million square meters, reflecting a 42% increase month-on-month but a 13% decrease year-on-year [19][21] - For second-hand homes, the average daily transaction area in 11 monitored cities was 30.3 million square meters, with a total transaction area of 212 million square meters, showing a 25% increase month-on-month but an 18% decrease year-on-year [24][27] Policy Developments - Recent policy adjustments include changes to housing provident fund policies in Fuzhou and Chengdu, aimed at encouraging home purchases and increasing loan limits for homebuyers [13][15] Company Dynamics - Poly Developments acquired a residential land parcel in Hangzhou for 1.586 billion, with a floor price of 38,084 yuan per square meter and a premium rate of 16.1% [16] - Greentown China successfully acquired residential land in Ningbo for 467 million, with a premium of 5.89% [16] - China Resources Land reported a total contract sales amount of approximately 10.05 billion for February 2026, with a year-on-year decrease of 25.6% [17]

行业研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 房地产行业周报 新房与二手房成交环比增加，绿城新增上海、 推荐（维持） 宁波两块宅地 房地产 2026 年 03 月 19 日 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：单戈 邮箱：shange@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360522110001 证券分析师：许常捷 邮箱：xuchangjie@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360525030002 证券分析师：杨航 邮箱：yanghang@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360525090001 行业基本数据 相关研究报告 《房地产行业周报（2026 年第 10 周）：二手房成 交环比增加，保利新增杭州城东新城宅地》 2026-03-11 《房地产行业周报（2026 年第 9 周）：上海宽松 限购，越秀摘得广州马场核心地块》 2026-03-03 《房地产行业周报（2026 年 7-8 周）：春节前后 新房与二手房成交面积同比减少，中海新增香港 九龙牛头角地块》 2026-02-24 证监会审核华创证券投资咨询业务资格批文号：证监许可（2009）1210 号 ❑ 板块行情：第 11 周（3 月 9 日-3 月 13 日）申万 ...

Monetary Policy Insights - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate at 3.5%-3.75% during the March meeting, removing the statement about stabilization in the labor market[3] - Economic growth expectations for 2026 were raised by 0.1% to 2.4%, while core PCE inflation expectations were increased by 0.2% to 2.7%[3] - The dot plot indicates potential rate cuts in 2026 and 2027, with a neutral rate rising to 3.1%, suggesting challenges in achieving two rate cuts[3][6] Economic Projections - The GDP growth forecast for 2026 was adjusted from 2.3% to 2.4%, and for 2027 from 2% to 2.3%[7] - Core PCE inflation expectations for 2026 increased from 2.5% to 2.7%, while the unemployment rate forecast for 2026 remained at 4.4%[7] Inflation and Geopolitical Risks - High oil prices are pushing long-term U.S. Treasury yields higher, negatively impacting corporate earnings outlooks, exacerbated by geopolitical tensions[3][9] - The Fed's discussions highlighted uncertainties in inflation paths due to tariff impacts and energy price fluctuations, complicating monetary policy decisions[8] Future Rate Cut Considerations - Powell indicated limited space for further rate cuts, with the neutral rate now close to the lower bound of the federal funds rate, making it difficult to realize expectations for two rate cuts[8] - Internal discussions about potential rate hikes are in early stages, with some FOMC members suggesting future actions may include rate increases[9]

从机构格局上看，银行理财业务经历了从母行部门到独立理财子的转变。2004 年-2018 年为母行资管部模式；2019 年至今为理财子公司模式，截至 2025 年 末，全国已开业理财子公司达 32 家，行业架构持续完善，头部机构引领行业 发展，行业集中度保持合理区间。随着行业从"高速扩张"向"高质量发展" 转型，理财子公司新设审批逐步收紧，进入高度审慎、择优审批的常态化阶段。 从市场份额上看，理财子占据绝对市场份额。据 2018 年-2025 年银行理财规 模统计，银行理财子公司市场份额呈爆发式增长态势，截至 2025 年已占据逾 九成市场份额，成为银行理财市场绝对主导力量。截至 2025 年末，头部理财 子公司呈现"两超多强"竞争格局，规模梯队分化特征显著。 综合金融 2026 年 03 月 18 日 华创证券研究所 产业研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 产业月度跟踪 流水不腐，户枢不蠹 ——中国银行理财发展历程与存款迁徙研究 证券分析师：洪锦屏 邮箱：hongjinping@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360516110002 行业基本数据 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | ...

宏观研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【宏观专题】 寻锚大变局：全球资金在买什么？——全球 资金流动周报第 1 期 ❖ 前言。 全球资产配置的研究离不开对跨境资金流动的跟踪、测度及判断。在当前全球 地缘局势动荡、宏观叙事频繁切换的背景下，资金的高频流动往往先于基本面 数据，反映出市场的真实预期与风险偏好。就资金跟踪这个环节，我们的理解 是，既要做"加法"，也要做"减法"。所谓加法，即要全面覆盖全球各大类资 产、核心区域的资金动态，并拉长观测周期。所谓减法，即要有的放矢，避免 陷入海量高频数据的噪音中，提炼出真正影响定价的边际变量。 我们从本期开始，定期为投资者梳理全球资金流动与结构变迁全景。我们的做 法是，一方面保证视角的宏大与全面，做到大类资产与主要经济体基本不遗不 漏；另一方面，以客观、去观点化的方式呈现数据事实，重点提取历史分位点 和边际变化幅度，帮助快速锚定当下的资金流动趋势。 一是全球大类资产资金流向全景。涵盖股票、债券、货币市场、另类及均衡基 金等核心大类资产。我们构建了"长周期（十年月度）+ 短周期（一年周度）" 的双主线观测模型。长周期用于定位当前资金涌入或流出的历史水位区间，提 供战略级别的配置 ...

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, Hosheng Co., Ltd. (002824) [1][10]. Core Insights - Hosheng Co., Ltd. is a leading enterprise in aluminum alloy processing, with a comprehensive layout in consumer electronics, automotive, and server sectors. The company aims to provide "one-stop" solutions for high-end industrial aluminum alloys in the consumer electronics and new energy sectors [6][10]. - The company is expected to benefit from the AI upgrade in mobile phones, which is anticipated to drive a new replacement cycle, as well as the steady growth in demand for battery box structures in new energy vehicles [10][8]. Financial Summary - Total revenue projections for 2024A, 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E are 3,333 million, 4,027 million, 4,908 million, and 5,915 million respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 14.7%, 20.8%, 21.9%, and 20.5% [2]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 80 million, 152 million, 275 million, and 349 million for the same years, with significant growth rates of -43.2%, 89.3%, 80.7%, and 26.8% respectively [2]. - The target price is set at 26.5 yuan, with the current price at 19.24 yuan [2]. Business Overview - Hosheng Co., Ltd. has been focused on aluminum alloy processing for over 30 years, continuously expanding into new fields. The company has established itself as a key partner for major clients such as Foxconn and BYD Electronics [14][6]. - The company’s product lines include components for consumer electronics, such as mobile phone frames and battery structures for new energy vehicles, which are expected to see increased demand due to the rise of AI and electric vehicles [22][25]. Market Trends - The consumer electronics sector is experiencing growth driven by AI hardware upgrades and innovations in foldable screen technology, which are expected to boost demand for aluminum alloy components [8][44]. - The server market is projected to grow significantly, with AI server shipments expected to increase by over 28% annually by 2026, creating a robust demand for metal structural components [8][64]. - The automotive sector is also seeing a rise in demand for lightweight materials, particularly aluminum alloys, as the penetration rate of new energy vehicles increases [9][25]. Investment Thesis - Hosheng Co., Ltd. is well-positioned to capitalize on the trends in AI upgrades in consumer electronics and the growth of the new energy vehicle market, alongside its expansion into the server component sector. The company is projected to achieve net profits of 152 million, 275 million, and 349 million from 2025 to 2027 [10][8].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, Hosheng Co., Ltd. (002824) [1][10]. Core Insights - Hosheng Co., Ltd. is a leading enterprise in aluminum alloy processing, with a comprehensive layout in consumer electronics, automotive, and server sectors. The company aims to provide "one-stop" solutions for high-end industrial aluminum alloys in the consumer electronics and new energy sectors [6][10]. - The company is expected to benefit from the AI upgrade in mobile phones, which is anticipated to drive a new replacement cycle, as well as the steady growth in demand for battery box structures in new energy vehicles [10][8]. Financial Performance - Projected total revenue (in million) for 2024A is 3,333, with a year-on-year growth rate of 14.7%. By 2027E, revenue is expected to reach 5,915 million, with a growth rate of 20.5% [2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 80 million in 2024A, with a significant increase to 349 million by 2027E, reflecting a growth rate of 26.8% [2]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to grow from 0.26 in 2024A to 1.12 in 2027E, indicating a strong upward trend in profitability [2]. Business Segments Consumer Electronics - The consumer electronics segment is expected to grow due to AI hardware upgrades and innovations in foldable screens, which are driving demand for aluminum alloy components [6][8]. - Hosheng has successfully developed high-performance aluminum alloys that exceed national standards, positioning itself as a key supplier for major clients like Foxconn and BYD Electronics [6][10]. Server Metal Structure Components - The demand for AI server structure components is projected to grow significantly, driven by the increasing need for computational power in AI applications. The global AI server shipment is expected to increase by over 28% in 2026 [8][10]. - Hosheng has actively entered the server market, providing metal structure components for servers and data centers, which positions the company to benefit from the rapid growth in the AI server market [8][10]. Automotive Sector - The automotive business is poised for growth as the penetration rate of new energy vehicles rises, leading to increased demand for battery box structures made from aluminum alloys [9][10]. - Hosheng is collaborating with leading companies in the industry, such as CATL and BYD, to meet the growing technical demands in the automotive sector [9][10]. Investment Recommendations - Hosheng Co., Ltd. is well-positioned to capitalize on the trends in AI upgrades in consumer electronics and the steady growth in new energy vehicles. The company is expected to achieve net profits of 152 million, 275 million, and 349 million from 2025 to 2027, respectively [10]. - The target price for the stock is set at 26.5 yuan, based on a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 30 times for 2026, reflecting a strong investment opportunity [2][10].