宏观研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 进一步关注公积金提取数据，2024 年用于租房、老旧小区改造的增速较高， 同比分别达到 33%、147%，详见正文。 ❖ 二、近期政策如何定调？ 近期，政策密集提及"深化住房公积金制度改革"，2025 年 12 月中央经济工 作会议提及"深化住房公积金制度改革，有序推动'好房子'建设"，此后， 全国住房城乡建设工作会议、求是《改善和稳定房地产市场预期》均有提及。 【宏观快评】 四问公积金制度改革 ❖ 核心观点 本文关注公积金制度改革。2025 年 12 月中央经济工作会议提及"深化住房公 积金制度改革"，据人民日报，住房公积金制度改革要"让大家贷得到、用得 顺这笔钱，从而住得上更好的房子"。后续关注四个方面：一是提高公积金资 金管理效能，当前公积金账户存款利率仅 1.5%，人民日报称"效能还有提升 空间"，关注后续措施；二是继续提高贷款额度；三是可能继续扩大灵活就业 人员试点范围，2024 年已有 36 城开展试点，关注是否扩围至全国；四是各地 或延续此前方向，继续扩大公积金使用范围，支持公积金支付房租与物业费、 提高租房提取额度、扩大公积金异地互认等。 ❖ 一、公积金情况简 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 评论： 行业研究 计算机 2026 年 01 月 12 日 推荐（维持） 计算机行业重大事项点评 CES 2026：端侧与 AI Agent 成核心焦点 事项： ❑ 2026 年美西时间 1 月 6 日-9 日，CES 2026 正式举行，端侧与 AI Agent 成为 核心议题。随着端侧 AI 对本地算力需求爆发式增长，英特尔、高通等纷纷亮 出新一代核心产品。 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：吴鸣远 邮箱：wumingyuan@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360523040001 行业基本数据 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数(只) | 337 | 0.04 | | 总市值(亿元) | 47,041.14 | 4.44 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 40,689.18 | 4.88 | 相对指数表现 | % | 1M | 6M | 12M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 绝对表现 | 8.2% | 25.4% | 48.0% | | 相对表现 | 4.7% | 6.2% | 22.1% | -4% 15% 34 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the semiconductor testing equipment industry, indicating a favorable outlook for investment opportunities in this sector [1]. Core Insights - The semiconductor testing equipment industry is experiencing a critical phase characterized by "value reassessment, demand surge, and accelerated domestic substitution," which presents significant investment opportunities [5][6]. - The testing equipment is essential throughout the semiconductor manufacturing process, with ATE (Automatic Test Equipment) leading in value contribution, while probe stations and handlers work in synergy to enhance testing efficiency [11][20]. - The demand for testing equipment is driven by three main factors: AI computing power, advanced packaging, and automotive electronics, which collectively create a favorable environment for growth [5][6]. Summary by Sections 1. Testing Equipment's Role in Manufacturing - Semiconductor testing equipment is a core component of the integrated circuit industry, covering wafer testing, packaging testing, and functional verification [11]. - Testing occurs in two main phases: Circuit Probing (CP) and Final Test (FT), which are crucial for ensuring product quality and cost efficiency [11][15]. 2. Demand Drivers - The complexity of AI computing chips is increasing, leading to longer testing cycles and higher equipment demand [6]. - Advanced packaging techniques are creating new testing requirements, such as KGD (Known Good Die) and SLT (System Level Test), which further drive the need for testing equipment [6]. - The automotive sector is also contributing to demand growth, with a significant increase in the number of chips required for smart vehicles, necessitating rigorous testing standards [5][6]. 3. Global Market Dynamics - The testing equipment market is dominated by a few key players, particularly in the ATE segment, where companies like Advantest and Teradyne hold over 90% market share [5][6]. - The report highlights the importance of platform integration and vertical consolidation as strategies for leading companies to maintain competitive advantages [5][6]. 4. Domestic Substitution Opportunities - The report identifies a clear path for domestic manufacturers to increase their market share, particularly in the SoC and storage testing segments, where current domestic production rates are low [5][6]. - Companies such as Changchuan Technology, Huafeng Measurement Control, and Xidian Co. are highlighted as key players with potential for growth in the domestic market [5][6].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Group 2: Report's Core View - The bond market experienced a "poor start" at the beginning of 2026 due to multiple factors such as the strong performance of the equity and commodity markets, large - scale government bond issuance at the beginning of the year, and increased redemption pressure on funds. Although some policies are beneficial to the bond market, the market still has concerns about the bond market's performance in January and 2026 [1][2][11]. - The commodity market shows a "re - inflation" trading logic at the beginning of the year, but the sustainability of the commodity price increase remains to be observed. If the actual situation does not meet expectations, it may bring trading opportunities for the bond market [3][39]. - For the bond market strategy, the 10y Treasury bond is close to the high point of the shock range, and the leverage strategy is still effective. The allocation of Tier 2 and perpetual bonds of banks is better than trading [3][4]. Group 3: Summary According to the Directory 1. The bond market experienced a "poor start" - **Reason 1: The strong performance of the equity and commodity markets suppresses the bond market** - The PMI in December rebounded counter - seasonally, and policies were introduced, boosting the opening - year macro - expectations. The Shanghai Composite Index stood above 4000 points, and the Wind All - A Index rose 5.1%. - The expectation of continued fiscal efforts and investment recovery in 2026 led to the warming of re - inflation trading. The Nanhua Industrial Products Index increased by 2.5% month - on - month, with metal varieties being relatively strong [1][12][14]. - **Reason 2: The large - scale issuance of government bonds at the beginning of the year raises concerns about supply** - The issuance scale of key - term government bonds at the beginning of the year was significantly larger than that of the same period last year, causing supply concerns. The current government bond issuance is in line with the neutral issuance speed under a 4% deficit ratio, and there may be room for acceleration in the future. - The bidding for local bonds in the first week of January was not good, and the spread between local bonds and government bonds has exceeded 20bp. Future policies to control bond - issuing costs need attention [19][21][24]. - **Reason 3: Increased redemption pressure and continuous net selling by funds** - At the beginning of the year, the funds for fund volume - boosting flowed back, and the scale of credit bond ETFs decreased rapidly after the New Year. - Since the beginning of the year, affected by factors such as the stock - bond seesaw effect, inflation expectations, and supply concerns, funds have continuously sold bonds net, mainly old - term policy financial bonds within 10 years and inter - bank certificates of deposit [26]. 2. Is the commodity market trading re - inflation? - The commodity market shows a "re - inflation" logic, with strong performance in non - precious metals and mid - upstream sectors such as non - ferrous and black metals. The driving forces include policy - induced macro - expectation improvement, the capital effect of precious metals, and the resonance of risk preferences during the equity spring rally. - Specific factors include the repair of undervalued sectors by speculative funds, the tightening of coal supply, the early - stage production of industrial products after the holiday, and the bottoming - out and recovery of inflation expectations. However, the current trading is mainly at the expectation level, and the sustainability of the commodity price increase remains to be observed [30][33][34]. 3. Bond market strategy: The 10y Treasury bond is close to the high point, the leverage strategy is still effective, and the allocation of Tier 2 and perpetual bonds is better than trading - **The 10y Treasury bond is close to the high point of the shock range, and the 1.9% level has allocation value** - It is expected that the 10y Treasury bond is close to the high point of the shock range, and the 1.9% level is worth allocating. It can be gradually built according to the liability situation. - The 10y Treasury bond fluctuates around OMO + 30 - 50bp as the core range, with an additional 5bp of possible extreme fluctuations. - The first quarter may be the high - point period of the bond market shock, so the current 1.9% level has allocation value [38][43]. - **Can the leverage strategy continue?** - At the beginning of the year, the funds are relatively stable and loose, and the bond market leverage level has increased significantly. The carry - trade spread is still at a relatively high level compared with the same period last year, so the leverage strategy is still effective. - In the middle and late ten - days, factors such as the tax period and government bond payment may cause fluctuations in capital prices, but it is unlikely to tighten significantly. The marginal change of certificate of deposit pricing can be observed, and the leverage level can be adjusted flexibly if necessary [44][47][49]. - **How to participate in the current Tier 2 and perpetual bonds of banks?** - **From the allocation perspective**: Currently, Tier 2 and perpetual bonds within 2 years have no obvious advantages compared with medium - term notes of the same rating. For 2 - 3y bonds, some city and rural commercial bank entities can be appropriately selected for bottom - position allocation. Institutions with stable liability ends can participate in the allocation of 4 - 5y bonds. - **From the trading perspective**: If the holding period is less than 1 month, the 10y interest - rate bond is better than the 5y Tier 2 and perpetual bonds. If the holding period is 3 months, the 5y Tier 2 and perpetual bonds can better reflect the coupon and riding value. Considering the current headwinds in the bond market, the trading strategy is recommended to prioritize 10y interest - rate bonds, and the trading of Tier 2 and perpetual bonds should wait for a favorable market [53][58]. 4. Review of the interest - rate bond market: The stock - bond seesaw and supply concerns lead to a steeper yield curve - **Funding situation**: The central bank conducted net reverse - repurchase withdrawals, and the funding situation was stable and balanced [69]. - **Primary issuance**: The net financing of government bonds, local bonds, and inter - bank certificates of deposit increased, while the net financing of policy financial bonds decreased [74]. - **Benchmark changes**: The term spread of government bonds widened, and the term spread of China Development Bank bonds narrowed [81].

宏观研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 4、价格：金铜油价齐升，碳酸锂价格继续大涨。COMEX 黄金收于 4473 美金 /盎司，上涨 3.6%；LME 三个月铜价收于 12990 美元/吨，上涨 3.8%；美油收 于 59.1 美元/桶，上涨 3.1%，布油收于 63.3 美元/桶，上涨 4.3%。碳酸锂连续 合约收盘价上涨 15.6%。 （二）景气向下 1、地产销售：商品房住宅销售降幅扩大。我们统计的 67 个城市，1 月前 10 日，商品房成交面积同比为-43%。去年 12 月同比为-24%。 2、土地溢价率：继续回落。截至 1 月 4 日当周，百城土地溢价率平均为 0.45%。 去年 12 月为 1.64%，11 月为 2.7%。 【每周经济观察】 华创宏观 WEI 指数回升 ❖ 每周经济观察： （一）景气向上 1、华创宏观 WEI 指数上行。截至 1 月 4 日，指数为 6.05%，较前一周上行 0.46 个点。 2、出行数据表现偏强。1 月第一周，26 城地铁客运量同比+6%，环比上月- 1.2%。1 月前 10 日，国内航班执行数日均为 1.24 万架次，同比-0.6%，环比去 年 12 月+0.9% ...

宏观研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【每周经济观察】 美国 10 月贸易逆差缩窄至 2009 年中以来最 低——海外周报第 122 期 ❖ 核心观点： 1、重要数据回顾：①美国 12 月 ADP 就业人数低于预期，11 月 JOLTs 职位 空缺数低于预期，10 月贸易逆差规模缩窄至 2009 年中以来最低，12 月 ISM 服务业 PMI 大幅上升，12 月 ISM 制造业 PMI 下滑，12 月季调后非农就业人 数低于市场预期，1 月密歇根大学消费者信心指数创 4 个月新高。②日本 2025 年 11 月薪资增速低于预期。③欧元区中德国和法国通胀超预期放缓。 2、美国基本面高频：①景气上行的有：地产（房贷申请数量回升）、就业（职 位空缺数回升）。②景气下行的有：WEI 指数（经济景气下行）、消费（红皮 书商业零售同比回落）、物价（大宗价格回升、美国汽油零售价回落）、就业 （ADP 周度新增就业人数回落、初请失业金人数回升、续请失业金人数回升）。 3、美国流动性高频：①美国和欧元区金融条件宽松。②离岸美元流动性：日 ❖ 一、过去一周重要数据回顾 1、美国 12 月 ADP 就业人数低于预期，11 月 JOLT ...

宏观研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【宏观快评】2025 年 12 月非农数据点评 10W！或是美国降息的就业分水岭 主要观点 ❖ 2025 年 12 月份非农数据简述 1、新增非农低于预期，前两个月数据明显下修。新增非农就业 5 万，预期 7 万。私人部门新增非农就业 3.7 万，预期 7.5 万。10-11 月新增就业合计下修 7.6 万。就业增长集中在教育保健服务（+4.1 万，前值+5.9 万）、休闲酒店（+4.7 万，前值-0.3 万）。零售、建筑、制造业、专业和商业服务等行业就业萎缩。 2、失业率意外回落，录得 4.4%（4.375%），预期 4.5%，前值 4.5%（4.536%）。 劳动参与率从 62.46%降至 62.40%，预期 62.4%。失业率下行主要源于就业增 长和供给小幅收缩，前者影响约 0.14 个百分点，后者影响约 0.03 个百分点。 3、时薪增速符合预期，但周工时下滑。私人行业时薪环比 0.3%，预期 0.3%， 同比增速 3.8%，预期 3.6%。周工时从 34.3 小时降至 34.2 小时，仍处于 2015 年以来的低位水平。周薪环比持平，并未增长（时薪是周薪和周工时的倒 ...

华创交运|低空经济周报（第 61 期） 国家安全视角再论无人机"攻与防"；"航空 推荐（维持） 强国"系列建议关注商发产业链 交通运输 2026 年 1 月 11 日 华创证券研究所 行业研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师：卢浩敏 邮箱：luhaomin@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360524090001 证券分析师：李清影 证券分析师：吴一凡 邮箱：wuyifan@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360516090002 证券分析师：梁婉怡 邮箱：liangwanyi@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360523080001 证券分析师：吴晨玥 邮箱：wuchenyue@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360523070001 证券分析师：霍鹏浩 邮箱：huopenghao@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360524030001 邮箱：liqingying@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360525080004 联系人：刘邢雨 邮箱：liuxingyu@hcyjs.com 行业基本数据 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数(只) | 121 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the mechanical industry, with a focus on AI equipment and consumables, as well as engineering machinery [1]. Core Insights - The mechanical industry is expected to benefit from the acceleration of AI applications, particularly in high-performance servers and GPU demand, driven by the rapid iteration of AI models and smart hardware [7]. - The excavator market is projected to exceed expectations in both domestic and international sales, with a forecasted 17% year-on-year growth in 2025, supported by government policies and infrastructure projects [7]. - The report emphasizes the potential for a new recovery cycle in the equipment industry, driven by monetary and fiscal policy support, and suggests focusing on key companies across various segments [7]. Summary by Sections Key Company Earnings Forecast, Valuation, and Investment Ratings - Companies such as 汇川技术 (Inovance Technology), 法兰泰克 (Falan Tech), and 信捷电气 (Xinjie Electric) are rated as "Strong Buy" with projected EPS growth and favorable PE ratios [2][8]. - For example, 汇川技术 is expected to have an EPS of 2.11元 in 2025, with a PE ratio of 37.13, indicating strong growth potential [2]. Industry and Company Investment Views - The report highlights the AI equipment and consumables sector as a key area for investment, with significant growth expected in the PCB market driven by AI infrastructure needs [9]. - The engineering machinery sector is also highlighted, with companies like 三一重工 (Sany Heavy Industry) and 徐工机械 (XCMG) expected to benefit from increased domestic demand and international market recovery [7][9]. Key Data Tracking - The report provides macroeconomic data indicating a total market capitalization of 70,956.73 billion yuan for the mechanical industry, with 636 listed companies [4]. - The mechanical sector has shown strong performance, with a 5.7% increase in the sector index over the past week, outperforming major indices [11][14].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the non-ferrous metals sector, highlighting the initiation of a spring rally with significant price increases in metals [2]. Core Views - The spring rally is believed to have started, with aluminum prices showing strong elasticity. As of January 9, the SHFE aluminum closing price was 24,385 CNY/ton, a 6.4% increase from December 31, 2025. The report anticipates that aluminum prices may rise further due to rigid supply constraints and increasing demand in new sectors [3][4]. - The report emphasizes the positive outlook for the electrolytic aluminum sector, predicting average profits to exceed 7,500 CNY/ton, supported by improved cash flow and stable profitability among companies [4]. - A strike at the Mantoverde copper mine in Chile could impact copper production, potentially exacerbating supply tightness in 2026 [5]. Summary by Sections Industrial Metals - **Aluminum Market**: The report notes a significant increase in aluminum prices and a rise in profits, driven by supply constraints and new demand areas. The global aluminum inventory remains low, providing strong support for prices [3]. - **Copper Market**: The report highlights a rise in copper inventories and recommends several companies in the copper sector, including Zijin Mining and Western Mining [6]. New Energy Metals and Minor Metals - **Cobalt Market**: The report indicates that cobalt exports from the Democratic Republic of Congo are delayed, leading to a potential price increase. The average price of electrolytic cobalt rose to 460,000 CNY/ton, a 1.1% increase from December 31, 2025 [7][12]. - **Company Performance**: Huayou Cobalt's 2025 earnings forecast exceeds market expectations, with a projected net profit increase of 40.8% to 55.2% year-on-year [14]. Industry Data - **Market Performance**: The non-ferrous metals sector has shown strong absolute and relative performance over the past year, with a 110.2% increase over 12 months [9]. - **Stock Market Data**: The total market capitalization of the sector is approximately 457.86 billion CNY, with 126 listed companies [8].