1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The year - end bond market rally can still be expected, but the magnitude should be rationally viewed. Bank, insurance, and wealth - management funds still have bond - allocation needs, protecting the market. However, the rate - cut expectation is weaker than in the past two years, so the rally may be limited [5][7][109]. - Currently, the three factors affecting bond - market fluctuations are risk preference, fund sales regulations, and year - end rally. As the negative impacts of risk preference and fee regulations are weakening, the risk of yield rising above the previous high is controllable. Before the implementation of the fee regulations, the bond market may fluctuate narrowly around 1.8%, and a potential decline in yield may occur later [5][7][109]. - Structurally, there is room to explore the spread of 3 - 5y policy - financial bonds. Attention can be paid to 7y CDB bonds in the medium - term, and the 30 - 10y treasury bond term spread may continue to compress. The 30y treasury bond swap strategy can be considered, and 15 - 30y local bonds can be participated in after the November supply peak [5][7][109]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 10 - month Central Bank Balance Sheet and Custody Volume Interpretation - **2025 October Central Bank Balance Sheet Changes**: The central bank's balance - sheet size decreased from 47.14 trillion yuan to 47.06 trillion yuan. The main reduction item on the asset side was "claims on the government", and the main increase item on the liability side was "government deposits". The "other depository corporation deposits" decreased seasonally [12][13][22]. - **Impact of Central Bank Operations on Custody Volume in October 2025**: The net investment scale of innovative tools was close to the change in the custody - account balance. The main incremental bond type was local bonds, and treasury bonds shifted from reduction to increase [27]. 3.2 Leverage Ratio Driven by the carry - trade space, institutions' willingness to increase leverage marginally recovered. In October, the average monthly trading volume of repurchase increased, and the average leverage ratio of bond funds rose. It reached the highest level in early November and then declined due to tightened liquidity [30]. 3.3 By Institution - **Banks**: Big banks' bond - allocation speed slowed down, with both primary - and secondary - market bond - buying efforts decreasing. Rural commercial banks may still have bond - allocation needs as their deposit growth rate exceeds the loan growth rate [42][48][54]. - **Insurance**: In the context of a bullish equity market, the incremental bond investment of insurance companies declined. In Q3 2025, there was an inversion between the incremental bond investment and secondary - market bond - buying scale. However, in the future, there may still be bond - allocation demand for incremental funds [62][70]. - **General Funds**: The bond - allocation sentiment improved. At the end of the year, there may still be a tendency to front - run, but the intensity may weaken. The scale of bond funds increased, and wealth - management products had strong bond - allocation demand, which is beneficial for the year - end rally [72][80][83]. - **Foreign Capital**: The comprehensive return on investing in certificates of deposit decreased, and foreign capital maintained a net outflow, mainly reducing holdings of certificates of deposit and policy - financial bonds while increasing holdings of treasury bonds [84][91]. 3.4 By Bond Type In October, the incremental custody volume of the bond market rebounded, and certificates of deposit and government bonds were the main supporting items. The net financing scale of government bonds decreased, the supply of policy - financial bonds slightly increased, and the net financing of certificates of deposit increased significantly [92][99][102].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the express delivery industry, expecting the industry index to outperform the benchmark index by over 5% in the next 3-6 months [2][28]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes investment opportunities in the express delivery sector under the theme of "anti-involution," highlighting a verification period for revenue and performance elasticity. It recommends YTO Express and Shentong Express, which have recently been upgraded to "Strong Buy" due to their strong performance indicators and potential for significant earnings elasticity [3][6]. - The report also highlights J&T Express, which saw a 79% year-on-year increase in Southeast Asia parcel volume in Q3, benefiting from high regional demand and the "anti-involution" trend, which is expected to stabilize domestic market profitability [3][6]. - SF Express is viewed positively due to its accelerated operational strategies leading to increased revenue growth, with the highest parcel volume growth year-to-date. The report suggests that the company's free cash flow can be sustainably optimized, making it an attractive investment after recent stock price adjustments [3][6]. Summary by Sections Industry Data - In October, the express delivery industry achieved a parcel volume growth rate of 7.9%, completing 17.6 billion parcels, a year-on-year increase of 7.9%. Cumulatively, from January to October, the industry completed 162.68 billion parcels, up 16.1% year-on-year [6][8]. - The industry's revenue in October reached 131.67 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.7%, with cumulative revenue from January to October at 1,217.41 billion yuan, up 8.5% year-on-year. The average revenue per parcel in October was 7.48 yuan, down 3.0% year-on-year [6][8]. Company Performance - In October, SF Express led the industry with a year-on-year parcel volume growth of 26.3%, followed by YTO Express at 12.8%, while Shentong Express and Yunda Express experienced lower growth rates [6][8]. - SF Express also led in revenue growth for October, with a year-on-year increase of 13.7%, while Shentong Express and YTO Express followed with 11.8% and 9.0% respectively [6][8]. - The report notes that Shentong Express had the highest year-on-year increase in average revenue per parcel at 2.18 yuan, while SF Express saw a significant decline of 10.0% year-on-year to 13.18 yuan [6][8].

产业研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 理财产品跟踪报告 2025 年第 13 期（11 月 01 日-11 月 14 日） 基金市场新发降温，分红险重回主导 银行理财产品： 根据普益标准数据，本期（11 月 1 日至 11 月 14 日）理财市场新发理财产品 1167 只，较上一期（10 月 18 日-10 月 31 日）的 1130 只基本持平。产品结构 延续"固收为主、理财公司主导、中短期限集中、低门槛普及"的特征，结构 分化依然较强：按投资性质划分，固定收益类产品仍占绝对主导地位，占比高 达 97.17%（前值 97.88%）；按机构类型划分，理财公司仍为主流，本期发行产 品 850 只，占比 72.84%；按投资起点划分，依然是 1 元及以下占比最高，新 发产品总数达 755 只（占比 64.7%），其次是 1 千元-1 万元（含）263 只（占 比 22.54%）。反映出理财行业向低门槛、普惠化转型的深化。 基金产品： 根据 wind 数据，2025 年 11 月 1 日至 11 月 14 日，全市场新成立基金共计 65 只，合计募集规模达 406.73 亿元，平均单只基金募集规模为 6.26 亿元。这 ...

公司研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 凯莱英（002821）2025 年三季报点评 推荐（维持） 三季度业绩符合预期，新兴业务表现亮眼 目标价：120 元 事项： 近期，公司发布 25Q3 业绩。25 年前三季度公司实现收入 46.30 亿元（+11.82%）， 归母净利润 8.00 亿元（+12.66%），扣非归母净利润 7.28 亿元（+9.74%）。25Q3 公司实现收入 14.42 亿元（-0.09%），归母净利润 1.83 亿元（-13.46%），扣非 归母净利润 1.62 亿元（-24.75%）。 评论： [ReportFinancialIndex] 主要财务指标 | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万) | 5,805 | 6,629 | 7,731 | 8,951 | | 同比增速(%) | -25.8% | 14.2% | 16.6% | 15.8% | | 归母净利润(百万) | 949 | 1,177 | 1,448 | 1,758 | | 同比增速(%) | -58.2% ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for Ctrip Group-S (09961.HK) with a target price of 635 HKD, reflecting an expected upside of 12.3% from the current price of 564.50 HKD [2][4]. Core Insights - Ctrip Group reported a revenue of 18.37 billion HKD in Q3 2025, representing a year-over-year increase of 15.5%. The gross margin was 81.7%, down 0.7 percentage points year-over-year. Operating profit reached 5.57 billion HKD, up 11.3% year-over-year, while net profit surged to 19.89 billion HKD, a remarkable increase of 194.0% due to gains from the disposal of certain investments [2][4]. - The accommodation booking revenue exceeded expectations, amounting to 8.05 billion HKD, with a year-over-year growth of 18.3%. Transportation ticketing revenue was 6.31 billion HKD, up 11.6% year-over-year. The international business continued to grow significantly, with total bookings on the international OTA platform increasing by approximately 60% year-over-year [8][2]. - The company has increased its marketing expenses to support overseas business expansion, leading to a sales expense ratio of 22.8%, which is an increase of 1.5 percentage points year-over-year [8][2]. - The sale of MakeMyTrip shares resulted in a substantial non-recurring gain, with other income for Q3 2025 reaching 17.03 billion HKD, a significant rise from 1.78 billion HKD in the same period last year [8][2]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for Ctrip Group are estimated at 61.68 billion HKD for 2025, 70.16 billion HKD for 2026, and 79.54 billion HKD for 2027, with year-over-year growth rates of 15.7%, 13.8%, and 13.4% respectively [4][9]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 31.65 billion HKD in 2025, 20.62 billion HKD in 2026, and 23.59 billion HKD in 2027, with growth rates of 85.4%, -34.9%, and 14.4% respectively [4][9]. - The report anticipates a price-to-earnings ratio of 20x for 2026, leading to a target market capitalization of 452.4 billion HKD [8][4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the company with a target price of 15 yuan [2][8]. Core Insights - The company's performance trend is overall positive, with significant growth in revenue and net profit for the first three quarters of 2025. Revenue reached 186 million yuan, up 17.45% year-on-year, and net profit was 18 million yuan, up 362.49% year-on-year [2][8]. - The impact of the divestment of the IVD business is clearing, leading to a recovery in revenue growth and a significant increase in profit margins. The company expects continued growth driven by overseas expansion and new partnerships [8]. - The company has secured a major cooperation agreement with a global biotechnology giant, which is expected to enhance its overseas business and drive future revenue growth [8]. Financial Summary - For 2024A, total revenue is projected at 224 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of -11.7%. By 2025E, revenue is expected to increase to 272 million yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 21.5% [4]. - The net profit for 2024A is estimated at 17 million yuan, with a significant increase to 25 million yuan in 2025E, representing a growth rate of 44.9% [4]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to rise from 0.04 yuan in 2024A to 0.06 yuan in 2025E [4]. Business Development - The company is actively expanding its domestic and international business, with notable partnerships in the retail and food processing sectors. Collaborations with major clients like Hema Fresh and Kang Shifu are highlighted [8]. - The company is also pursuing government contracts in various provinces, enhancing its presence in the public sector [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, expecting it to outperform the benchmark index by over 20% in the next six months [2][19]. Core Insights - The company has demonstrated accelerated revenue growth, driven by AI empowerment and globalization, with a 24.22% year-on-year increase in revenue for the first three quarters of 2025, reaching 1.303 billion yuan [2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders for the same period grew by 14.55% year-on-year, amounting to 351 million yuan [2]. - In Q3 2025 alone, the company achieved a revenue of 460 million yuan, reflecting a 27.49% year-on-year growth, and a net profit of 116 million yuan, up 34.93% year-on-year [2]. Financial Performance Summary - Total revenue projections for 2024A, 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E are 1,438 million yuan, 1,783 million yuan, 2,201 million yuan, and 2,704 million yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 21.2%, 24.0%, 23.5%, and 22.8% [4]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 401 million yuan, 502 million yuan, 609 million yuan, and 733 million yuan for the same years, with growth rates of 23.9%, 25.2%, 21.5%, and 20.2% respectively [4]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 2.86 yuan, 3.58 yuan, 4.35 yuan, and 5.23 yuan for 2024A, 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E respectively [4]. Business Segment Performance - The C-end business, particularly the intelligent text recognition products, saw a revenue of 385 million yuan in Q3, marking a 32.40% year-on-year increase, driven by an increase in active users and paid users [8]. - The B-end business also showed steady growth, with Q3 revenue from B-end products reaching 20.6 million yuan, a 19.64% year-on-year increase [8]. - The company is enhancing its overseas market capabilities and user experience, which is expected to further strengthen its brand recognition and long-term growth potential [8]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the company's technological and product capabilities are building a competitive moat, with continuous improvements in AI capabilities [8]. - The target price for the company is set at 239 yuan, based on a projected market capitalization of 33.5 billion yuan, applying a 55x PE ratio for 2026 [4][8].

证 券 研 究 报 告 证券行业周报（20251110-20251116） 推荐（维持） 再融资规模同比高增，北交所占据 IPO 排队主体 ❑ 事项：2025 年 1-10 月，一级市场融资端呈现回暖态势，但结构分化显著。1） IPO 方面：全市场募集金额 902 亿元（同比+70.7%），家数 87 家（同比+7 家）。 IPO 节奏在保持常态化的基础上温和回升，但体量相对可控。2）再融资方面： 募集金额 8636 亿元（同比+428.8%），家数 173 家（同比+19 家）。再融资规模 出现倍数级增长，单家平均募资规模大幅提升。这或反映出在 IPO 入口严监管 背景下，资本市场功能重心向存量上市公司倾斜，支持优质龙头企业通过定增、 并购重组等方式做优做强，政策支持效果在数据端得到充分验证。 IPO 储备结构：北交所承接效应明显。截至 11 月 18 日，剔除终止及中止项目 后，IPO 报审家数共计 186 家，板块分布呈现极度不均衡特征：北交所（112 家，占比 60.2%）占据报审队伍六成以上，为当前企业首发上市的主阵地。这 与监管层支持专精特新、中小市值企业融资的导向高度一致。沪深主板及双创 板块（ ...

1. Report Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - In 2025Q3, the market value of convertible bonds held by public - funds increased, with the bond - type funds being the main force of the increase, and they mainly added positions in power equipment convertible bonds. The position of convertible bonds held by public - funds also rose. Although the convertible bond market continued to shrink, the convertible bond assets still had considerable returns under the catalysis of equity enthusiasm [2][8][9]. - The performance of convertible bond funds outperformed the index in 2025Q3, showing net subscriptions and scale expansion. However, the overall position and leverage ratio of these funds declined. Both public - funds and convertible bond funds focused on adding positions in power equipment convertible bonds [5][8][9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Public - funds Increase Convertible Bond Positions and Add Positions in Power Equipment Convertible Bonds 3.1.1 Market Value of Convertible Bonds Held by Public - funds Increases Month - on - Month, and Positions Rise - In 2025Q3, the market value of convertible bonds held by public - funds was 316.618 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 16.09% and a year - on - year increase of 12.72%. The ratio of the market value of convertible bonds held by public - funds to the market value of bond investments was 1.57%, a 0.28 - percentage - point increase from 25Q2; the ratio to net worth was 0.87%, a 0.07 - percentage - point increase from 25Q2 [13]. - The market value changes of convertible bonds held by different types of funds varied month - on - month. Stock - type and secondary bond - type funds significantly increased their positions. From the perspective of absolute amount changes, the bond - type funds had the largest increase in market value, with a month - on - month increase of 48.61 billion yuan in 25Q3 [17][19]. - The overall position of public - funds in convertible bonds increased, but the position of convertible bond funds was diluted. According to the Wind fund primary classification, the convertible bond position of stock - type funds remained flat at 0.02% month - on - month, that of hybrid funds decreased by 0.26 percentage points to 0.59%, and that of bond - type funds increased by 0.49 percentage points to 2.73% [23][25]. 3.1.2 Public - funds Inversely Increase Positions, while Insurance Funds, Enterprise Annuities, and Securities Firms' Proprietary Trading Reduce Positions - As of the end of 2025Q3, the total face value of convertible bonds held by the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges was 599.489 billion yuan, a decrease of 55.679 billion yuan from the end of 25Q2, a month - on - month decrease of 8.50%. Insurance institutions, enterprise annuities, and securities firms' proprietary trading significantly reduced their positions, while public - funds significantly increased their positions inversely, with a month - on - month increase of 7.68% to 233.561 billion yuan [35]. 3.1.3 Public - funds Mainly Add Positions in Power Equipment, and Bank Convertible Bonds Further Shrink - In terms of industry layout in 25Q3, banks were still the primary layout sector, but the overall position market value shrank significantly under the early redemption of multiple bank convertible bonds, with only a 233 - million - yuan difference from the power equipment market value. From the perspective of the market value month - on - month change rate, 24 industries had positive month - on - month changes, with the petrochemical, power equipment, and beauty care industries leading in growth [42]. 3.1.4 Industrial Convertible Bonds Maintain the First - Positioned Heavy - Position Bond - Industrial convertible bonds were the first - positioned heavy - position bond of public - funds, and EVE and Industrial convertible bonds led in terms of incremental positions. Among the top ten convertible bonds in terms of total position market value, there were 3 bank convertible bonds, which was fewer than in Q2. The types of bottom - position bonds gradually diversified [50]. 3.2 Convertible Bond Funds' Performance Outperforms the Index, and Convertible Bond Positions and Leverage Ratios Decline 3.2.1 Net Asset Value after Reinvestment Increases, and Overall Net Subscriptions Occur - As of 2025Q3, there were 39 convertible bond funds in the market. The performance of convertible bond funds outperformed the convertible bond index, showing net subscriptions and scale expansion. The scale of convertible bond funds in 25Q3 was 63.284 billion yuan, a significant increase of 11.635 billion yuan from 25Q2, a month - on - month increase of 22.53% [55]. - By observing the asset allocation changes of high - performing convertible bond funds, most of the larger - scale funds had reduced convertible bond positions. The top five funds in terms of net value performance in 25Q3 all had a certain scale, and most of them reduced their positions in stocks and convertible bond assets [57][58]. 3.2.2 Convertible Bond Positions Slightly Decrease Month - on - Month, and Leverage Ratios Decline Month - on - Month - The overall position of 39 convertible bond funds slightly decreased, and the leverage ratio declined month - on - month. In the third quarter of 2025, the ratio of the market value of convertible bonds to the net value of convertible bond funds was 84.18%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.16 percentage points; the median position was 85.54%, a more obvious month - on - month decrease of 6.14 percentage points. The average leverage ratio of 39 convertible bond funds was 114.13%, a decrease of 2.79 percentage points month - on - month, continuing the downward trend [5][68]. 3.2.3 Convertible Bond Funds Focus on Adding Positions in Power Equipment - From the perspective of the quarterly change in the number of times funds held convertible bonds, more than half of the industries had an increase in the number of holdings in 25Q3, with power equipment, electronics, and machinery leading in the increase. From the perspective of the quarterly change in the proportion of the market value of fund positions, the proportion of power equipment increased by 4.46 percentage points, leading by a large margin [6]. - Among the 39 convertible bond funds, Industrial convertible bonds were still the main heavy - position bond and increased in position. The banking and power equipment industries remained at the forefront of heavy - position industries [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Yili Co., Ltd. (600887) with a target price of 36 CNY [2][6]. Core Insights - Yili has outlined a five-year growth plan focusing on stabilizing the entire industry chain and enhancing profitability amidst weak demand and intensified competition. The company aims for a net profit margin of 9% for the year [6]. - The company expects revenue growth to outpace GDP growth over the next five years, with a focus on liquid milk and functional nutrition as key growth drivers [6]. - Yili plans to increase its market share in various product categories, including infant formula and low-temperature dairy products, while also accelerating international expansion [6]. - A commitment to high dividend payouts has been established, with plans for cash dividends to account for at least 75% of net profit from 2025 to 2027 [6]. Financial Summary - Projected total revenue (in million CNY) for 2024A is 115,780, with a year-on-year growth rate of -8.2%. By 2027E, revenue is expected to reach 125,537 million CNY, with a growth rate of 3.5% [2][6]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be 8,453 million CNY in 2024A, with a significant increase to 13,302 million CNY by 2027E, reflecting a growth rate of 8.2% [2][6]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are expected to rise from 1.34 CNY in 2024A to 2.10 CNY in 2027E, indicating a positive trend in profitability [2][6]. Market Position and Strategy - Yili aims to lead the liquid milk market by 2026, with a focus on penetrating lower-tier markets and enhancing presence in high-tier cities [6]. - The company is shifting its marketing strategy from traditional methods to more engaging and ROI-focused approaches, which is expected to support ongoing profitability improvements [6]. - Yili's international business is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 20%, with a focus on high-value products from New Zealand and expanding its presence in Southeast Asia [6].