证 券 研 究 报 告 银行业周报（20260105-20260111） 银行理财收益率走低，打通入市卡点可提升 推荐（维持） 吸引力 理财产品以固收类配置为主，权益类占比很低。根据益普标准数据，截至 2025 年 12 月末，全市场理财产品存续规模达到 31.63 万亿元。其中固定收益类占 比 76.60%，现金管理类规模占比 20.87%，混合类占比 2.37%，权益类仅占比 0.08%，商品及金融衍生品类占比 0.01%。权益类理财产品占比偏低，既有银 行渠道客户风险偏好较低的原因，也有权益类资产估值波动大、理财产品缺乏 中长期考核要求的约束。 监管考虑理财资金加大入市的可能性，理财产品有望增配权益类资产以提高 收益率。目前拥有 30 万亿体量的理财资金进行权益类投资的权重很小，这与 其考核周期以及资金池运作等方式有关。根据券商中国报道，监管近期通过理 财公司调研了解制约银行理财提高投资 A 股的规模和比例的障碍有哪些，并 邀请理财公司从不限于投资运营政策、考核指标、激励机制、资本市场生态等 维度作答。若在相关制度上有所改进，有望提升权益类产品占比，进而提升整 体的理财产品收益率，增加理财产品对客户的吸 ...

❖ 省级两会关注什么？ 宏观研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【宏观快评】 地方两会的"信息点" ❖ 省级两会什么时候召开？ 省级两会通常在农历春节前召开完毕。今年春节在 2 月中旬，因此省级两会集 中在 1 月下旬到 2 月上旬。但到 1 月下旬即可初步把握 2026 年省级两会的整 体基调。 一方面，GDP 占比过半省份明确在 1 月召开两会。截至目前，已有 17 省市明 确在 1 月召开人代会。2024 年，这 17 省 GDP 合计在全国占比 57.3%。 另一方面，6 个经济大省中，有 4 个经济大省明确于 1 月召开两会。在每年省 级两会中，我们尤其关注经济大省情况，因为全国 GDP 高度集中在这 6 个省 份中，2024 年 GDP 合计占比 44.4%。其中浙江作为经济强省率先开局（1 月 14 日），河南、山东、广东则分别将于 1 月 26 日、1 月、1 月下旬召开人代会。江 苏召开时间为 2 月上旬，四川还待定。 1、未来五年 GDP 目标：是否设置目标、是否为区间目标。目前而言，已召开 会议的长沙为区间目标，"未来五年主要预期目标：地区生产总值年均增长 5%- 5.5%"，此前"十四五"时 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the food and beverage industry, indicating an expected increase in the industry index exceeding the benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 3-6 months [26]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes that the remaining brands in the sauce liquor sector will thrive, while mass-market products are expected to benefit from the upcoming Spring Festival [2][8]. - The dairy sector is showing signs of improvement, with a potential rebound in raw milk prices and a narrowing supply-demand gap, which could lead to increased demand for processed dairy products [6]. - The beverage and snack categories are experiencing sustained growth, with specific segments like energy drinks and konjac snacks showing remarkable sales increases despite overall declines in the snack market [6]. - The report highlights a significant shift in the sauce liquor industry, where pricing strategies are becoming more pragmatic, with a new growth level emerging around the 200 yuan price point as lower-tier brands face market exit pressures [6][8]. - The report suggests that leading liquor companies should maintain operational stability during this industry downturn, focusing on balanced investments in base liquor to prepare for future market recovery [8]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The food and beverage sector consists of 126 listed companies with a total market capitalization of 44,935.30 billion yuan, representing 3.54% of the market [3]. - The circulating market value stands at 43,859.19 billion yuan, accounting for 4.28% of the total market [3]. Performance Metrics - The absolute performance of the industry over the past month is 1.3%, with a relative performance decline of 2.2% compared to the benchmark [4]. - Over the past 12 months, the industry has seen a relative performance decline of 25.2% [4]. Sector-Specific Insights - Dairy products are expected to benefit from a favorable pricing environment and improved supply dynamics, with major companies actively preparing for the Spring Festival [6]. - The beverage sector is witnessing growth in specific categories, with leading brands launching targeted marketing campaigns for the holiday season [6]. - The sauce liquor market is undergoing a consolidation phase, with a focus on brand strength and market share recovery among leading companies [6][8].

证 券 研 究 报 告 证 券 研 究 报 告 杠杆&ETF资金分化 ——流动性&交易拥挤度&投资者温度计周报 2026年1月12日 证券分析师：姚佩 执业编号：S0360522120004 邮箱：yaopei@hcyjs.com 联系人：朱冬墨 邮箱：zhudongmo@hcyjs.com 本报告由华创证券有限责任公司编制 卖的出价或询价。本报告所载信息均为个人观点，并不构成对所涉及证券的个人投资建议。 请仔细阅读PPT后部分的分析师声明及免责声明。 @2021 华创 版权所有 核心结论 • 资金流动性： 证监会审核华创证券投资咨询业务资格批文号：证监许可（2009）1210 号 2 证 券 研 究 报 告 1）资金供给端扩张：偏股型公募新发规模下降至历史低位、杠杆资金&股票型ETF分化：两融单周净流入创去年8 月底以来新高；ETF净申购仍处于净流出状态、回购金额扩张至历史高位； 2）资金需求端扩张：股权融资规模下降，产业资本净减持&南向资金均扩张至历史高位。 • 交易拥挤度：以过去四周成交额占比/市值占比（较全A）作为衡量主题行业交易热度的表征指标来看，本周热度 分位（下同）上行行业主要为：保险+22pc ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the consumer services industry, indicating an expected increase in the industry index exceeding the benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 3-6 months [40][42]. Core Insights - The report highlights that Jiangyun Co. plans to swap its assets related to passenger car sales and automotive services with the cultural and sports assets held by its controlling shareholder, Jiushi Group. This move is expected to promote the capitalization process of China's sports industry, presenting potential investment opportunities [5]. - The State Council's antitrust office is investigating the competitive landscape of the food delivery platform service industry, which may shift the focus from price wars to compliance battles [5]. - The report identifies several investment targets, including hotels with balanced supply and demand, human resources services with clear industry trends, and the sports sector with significant growth potential [5]. Industry Basic Data - The consumer services industry comprises 55 listed companies with a total market capitalization of 498.804 billion yuan and a circulating market capitalization of 457.081 billion yuan [2]. Market Performance - The consumer services sector experienced a weekly increase of 4.71%, outperforming the overall A-share market, which rose by 5.08%, and the CSI 300 index, which increased by 2.79% [8][27]. - Notable performers in the sector included Gu Ming, which rose by 8.72%, and Jun Ting Hotel, which increased by 12.13% [5][21]. Important Announcements - Key announcements from companies in the sector include: 1. Excellence Education Group purchased 51,000 shares in the open market [32]. 2. New Oriental will hold a board meeting on January 27 to approve its unaudited performance for the six months ending November 30, 2025 [32]. 3. JD Group plans to repurchase approximately 180 million Class A ordinary shares for about $3 billion [32]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Xianle Health, with a target price of 32.5 CNY [2][6]. Core Views - The company is progressing with the divestiture of its BFPC subsidiary, which is expected to improve cash flow and allow for a focus on core business operations. The divestiture is anticipated to be completed by the end of January 2026, with corresponding asset impairment recognized in 2025 [2][6]. - Xianle Health plans to issue H-shares and list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, aiming to enhance its capital strength and competitive position globally. The funds raised will be directed towards global capacity expansion, smart factory construction, and upgrades to R&D and supply chain systems [2][6]. - A three-year strategic plan (2026-2028) has been released, focusing on globalization, core capability enhancement, and digital empowerment. The company aims to replicate its efficient and high-quality systems to become the global leader in the health supplement CDMO sector [2][6]. Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to grow from 4,211 million CNY in 2024 to 5,664 million CNY in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 11.2% [7]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to recover from a decline in 2025 to 484 million CNY by 2027, reflecting a significant rebound [7]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to increase from 1.06 CNY in 2024 to 1.57 CNY in 2027, indicating a positive trend in profitability [7].

证 券 研 究 报 告 【宏观快评】 部委年度会议的 6 大要点——政策周观察第 63 期 ❖ 近一周，其他值得关注的政策： 1、反内卷：1）1 月 8 日，财政部等关于调整光伏等产品出口退税政策的公告。 自 2026 年 4 月 1 日起，取消光伏等产品增值税出口退税。自 2026 年 4 月 1 日起至 2026 年 12 月 31 日，将电池产品的增值税出口退税率由 9%下调至 6%； 2027 年 1 月 1 日起，取消电池产品增值税出口退税。2）1 月 7 日，工信部等 部门联合召开动力和储能电池行业座谈会，部署规范产业竞争秩序工作。 2、1 月 8 日，工信部等印发《"人工智能+制造"专项行动实施意见》。提出到 2027 年，推动 3-5 个通用大模型在制造业深度应用，推出 1000 个高水平工业 智能体。 ❖ 风险提示：政策更新不及时。 ❖ 宏观研究 邮箱：zhangyu3@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360518090001 证券分析师：陆银波 邮箱：luyinbo@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360519100003 证券分析师：袁玲玲 邮箱：yuanlingling@hcyjs ...

宏观研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 进一步关注公积金提取数据，2024 年用于租房、老旧小区改造的增速较高， 同比分别达到 33%、147%，详见正文。 ❖ 二、近期政策如何定调？ 近期，政策密集提及"深化住房公积金制度改革"，2025 年 12 月中央经济工 作会议提及"深化住房公积金制度改革，有序推动'好房子'建设"，此后， 全国住房城乡建设工作会议、求是《改善和稳定房地产市场预期》均有提及。 【宏观快评】 四问公积金制度改革 ❖ 核心观点 本文关注公积金制度改革。2025 年 12 月中央经济工作会议提及"深化住房公 积金制度改革"，据人民日报，住房公积金制度改革要"让大家贷得到、用得 顺这笔钱，从而住得上更好的房子"。后续关注四个方面：一是提高公积金资 金管理效能，当前公积金账户存款利率仅 1.5%，人民日报称"效能还有提升 空间"，关注后续措施；二是继续提高贷款额度；三是可能继续扩大灵活就业 人员试点范围，2024 年已有 36 城开展试点，关注是否扩围至全国；四是各地 或延续此前方向，继续扩大公积金使用范围，支持公积金支付房租与物业费、 提高租房提取额度、扩大公积金异地互认等。 ❖ 一、公积金情况简 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 评论： 行业研究 计算机 2026 年 01 月 12 日 推荐（维持） 计算机行业重大事项点评 CES 2026：端侧与 AI Agent 成核心焦点 事项： ❑ 2026 年美西时间 1 月 6 日-9 日，CES 2026 正式举行，端侧与 AI Agent 成为 核心议题。随着端侧 AI 对本地算力需求爆发式增长，英特尔、高通等纷纷亮 出新一代核心产品。 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：吴鸣远 邮箱：wumingyuan@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360523040001 行业基本数据 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数(只) | 337 | 0.04 | | 总市值(亿元) | 47,041.14 | 4.44 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 40,689.18 | 4.88 | 相对指数表现 | % | 1M | 6M | 12M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 绝对表现 | 8.2% | 25.4% | 48.0% | | 相对表现 | 4.7% | 6.2% | 22.1% | -4% 15% 34 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the semiconductor testing equipment industry, indicating a favorable outlook for investment opportunities in this sector [1]. Core Insights - The semiconductor testing equipment industry is experiencing a critical phase characterized by "value reassessment, demand surge, and accelerated domestic substitution," which presents significant investment opportunities [5][6]. - The testing equipment is essential throughout the semiconductor manufacturing process, with ATE (Automatic Test Equipment) leading in value contribution, while probe stations and handlers work in synergy to enhance testing efficiency [11][20]. - The demand for testing equipment is driven by three main factors: AI computing power, advanced packaging, and automotive electronics, which collectively create a favorable environment for growth [5][6]. Summary by Sections 1. Testing Equipment's Role in Manufacturing - Semiconductor testing equipment is a core component of the integrated circuit industry, covering wafer testing, packaging testing, and functional verification [11]. - Testing occurs in two main phases: Circuit Probing (CP) and Final Test (FT), which are crucial for ensuring product quality and cost efficiency [11][15]. 2. Demand Drivers - The complexity of AI computing chips is increasing, leading to longer testing cycles and higher equipment demand [6]. - Advanced packaging techniques are creating new testing requirements, such as KGD (Known Good Die) and SLT (System Level Test), which further drive the need for testing equipment [6]. - The automotive sector is also contributing to demand growth, with a significant increase in the number of chips required for smart vehicles, necessitating rigorous testing standards [5][6]. 3. Global Market Dynamics - The testing equipment market is dominated by a few key players, particularly in the ATE segment, where companies like Advantest and Teradyne hold over 90% market share [5][6]. - The report highlights the importance of platform integration and vertical consolidation as strategies for leading companies to maintain competitive advantages [5][6]. 4. Domestic Substitution Opportunities - The report identifies a clear path for domestic manufacturers to increase their market share, particularly in the SoC and storage testing segments, where current domestic production rates are low [5][6]. - Companies such as Changchuan Technology, Huafeng Measurement Control, and Xidian Co. are highlighted as key players with potential for growth in the domestic market [5][6].