宏观视角看股市主要聚焦四个层面：盈利、估值、产业本身、机构配置偏好。 从这四个维度来看，股市或已经初步对地产脱敏，该链条"地产行业波动→地 产股及产业链的盈利与股价波动→进而影响到整体 A 股情绪与走势"已弱化： 宏观研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【宏观专题】 中国地产"脱敏"三步曲 ❖ 核心观点 宏观视角下，地产"脱敏"并非一蹴而就，更多是分层级、渐进式演进，我们 研究发现最可能的脱敏顺序是——"先股市、再消费、最后投资"。我们将其 归纳为"三步曲"，当下股市脱敏基本完成，消费脱敏正在进行中，投资脱敏 仍需时日。 首先，资本市场反应最为灵敏，从盈利、估值、产业、配置四个维度来看，股 市或已初步完成对地产股的脱敏；其次，消费受文化、房价与收入预期等影响， 因素比较复杂，但如从必选类社零、消费信心、分城市社零等数据来看，消费 似正在对地产脱敏，地产通过财富效应、收入效应对消费的拖累也似在客观减 轻；最后是投资，由于投资端调整较慢、且面临中长期人口拐点等因素制约， 预计脱敏将最晚到来。 ❖ 第一步曲：股市，或已初步脱敏 一是盈利层面，地产占比已不足 1%。2025 年前三季度"狭义地产"（房地产 +房屋建筑）营业 ...

保险行业深度研究报告 挪储背景下的分红险变革 重点公司盈利预测、估值及投资评级 | | | | | EPS（元） | | | PE（倍） | | PB（倍） | 评级 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 简称 | 代码 | 股价（元） 2025E | | 2026E | 2027E | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | 2025E | | | 中国太保 | 601601.SH | 38.85 | 5.68 | 6.15 | 6.81 | 6.85 | 6.32 | 5.71 | 1.23 | 推荐 | | 中国平安 | 601318.SH | 61.79 | 8.02 | 8.83 | 9.46 | 7.71 | 7.00 | 6.53 | 1.07 | 强推 | | 中国人保 | 601319.SH | 8.42 | 1.28 | 1.36 | 1.45 | 6.56 | 6.19 | 5.79 | 1.16 | 推荐 | | 中国人寿 | 601628.SH | 42.61 | 6.3 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 珍酒李渡（06979.HK）2025 年业绩预告点评 强推（维持） 报表大幅纾压，大珍蓄势待发 目标价：12 港元 事项： 公司发布 25 全年业绩预告，预计全年实现营收 35.5 至 37.0 亿元，同降 47.7% 至 49.8%；预计实现归母净利润 5.2 至 5.8 亿元，同降 56.1%至 60.6%；预计实 现经调整净利润 5.2 亿至 5.8 亿元，同降 65.5%至 69.0%。单 H2 看，预计实现 营收 10.5 至 12.0 亿元，同降 59.0%至 64.1%；预计实现归母净利润-0.5 至 0.1 亿元，24 年同期为 5.7 亿元；预计实现经调整净利润-0.3 亿至-0.9 亿元，24 年 同期为 6.6 亿元。 评论： [主要财务指标 Indicator_FinchinaSimpleHKNon] | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万元) | 7,067 | 3,562 | 3,752 | 4,324 | | 同比增速(%) | 0.5% ...

债券研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【债券日报】 转债市场日度跟踪 20260304 市场概况：今日转债多数行业回调，估值环比压缩 指数表现：中证转债指数环比下降 0.23%、上证综指环比下降 0.98%、深证成 指环比下降 0.75%、创业板指环比下降 1.41%、上证 50 指数环比下降 1.33%、 中证 1000 指数环比下降 0.59%。 市场风格：中盘价值相对占优。大盘成长环比下降 1.34%、大盘价值环比下降 1.17%、中盘成长环比下降 0.51%、中盘价值环比下降 0.40%、小盘成长环比 下降 0.73%、小盘价值环比下降 1.57%。 资金表现：转债市场成交情绪升温。可转债市场成交额为 778.29 亿元，环比 增长 2.49%；万得全 A 总成交额为 23879.42 亿元，环比减少 24.37%；沪深两 市主力净流出 499.60 亿元，十年国债收益率环比降低 0.39bp 至 1.78%。 转债价格：转债中枢下降，高价券占比下降。转债整体收盘价加权平均值为 140.88 元，环比昨日下降 0.20%。其中偏股型转债的收盘价为 222.97 元，环比 上升 0.30%；偏债型转债的收盘 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 珍酒李渡（06979.HK）2025 年业绩预告点评 强推（维持） 报表大幅纾压，大珍蓄势待发 目标价：12 港元 事项： 公司发布 25 全年业绩预告，预计全年实现营收 35.5 至 37.0 亿元，同降 47.7% 至 49.8%；预计实现归母净利润 5.2 至 5.8 亿元，同降 56.1%至 60.6%；预计实 现经调整净利润 5.2 亿至 5.8 亿元，同降 65.5%至 69.0%。单 H2 看，预计实现 营收 10.5 至 12.0 亿元，同降 59.0%至 64.1%；预计实现归母净利润-0.5 至 0.1 亿元，24 年同期为 5.7 亿元；预计实现经调整净利润-0.3 亿至-0.9 亿元，24 年 同期为 6.6 亿元。 评论： [主要财务指标 Indicator_FinchinaSimpleHKNon] | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万元) | 7,067 | 3,562 | 3,752 | 4,324 | | 同比增速(%) | 0.5% ...

债券研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【债券分析】 宽松节奏放缓，地缘冲击市场 ——2 月海外月度观察 经济方面，全球经济韧性延续偏强。贸易方面，1-2 月波罗的海干散货指数 止跌后震荡回升，2 月前 20 日韩国未经调整出口同比增速为 23.5%。货币 政策方面，美、欧、英、日央行均按兵不动。财政政策方面，美国联邦政府 再度陷入停摆，最高法院判定特朗普政府部分关税违法；高市早苗当选新任 首相，推行宽财政政策。 发达经济体：主要国家经济增长保持韧性，通胀风险缓解 总体来看，2026 年 1-2 月，全球经济韧性延续，但海外央行宽松节奏整体 放缓。1 月上旬美国司法部对鲍威尔展开调查，引发市场对美联储独立性的 担忧，下旬美欧格陵兰岛问题摩擦短暂升温，月末美联储新任主席提名落 地，政策预期持续扰动市场。2 月中下旬关税裁决加大政策不确定性，美伊 日内瓦谈判分歧加大、且月末升级为局部冲突，市场交易逻辑由政策预期转 向地缘风险与通胀再定价，全球大类资产波动加剧。后续重点关注地缘冲突 演进、能源价格走势及主要央行政策预期变化。 风险提示： 美国就业市场超预期疲软；金融市场流动性紧缩。 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：周冠南 邮 ...

行业研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 基础化工行业重大事项点评 三代制冷剂报价全面上调，旺季渐近看好行 推荐（维持） 业长周期景气 事项： 制冷剂近期迎"二代持稳、三代普涨"行情。根据氟务在线，2 月 28 日，三 代制冷剂主流品种 R32、R32（外贸）、R125、R134a、R410a 产品报价分别调 涨 500、500、2000、2000、1000 元/吨至 6.15-6.25、6.15-6.25、5.1-5.6、5.7- 5.8、5.5-5.6 万元/吨，R143a、R507、R404 产品价格均调涨 1000 元/吨至 4.6- 4.7、4.9-4.95、4.9-4.95 万元/吨。R22、R22（原料）、R22（出口）维持 1.6-1.7、 1.1-1.2、1.6-1.7 万元/吨含税出厂价。 评论： 重点公司盈利预测、估值及投资评级 | | | | EPS（元） | | PE（倍） | | | PB（倍） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 简称 | 代码 | 股价（元） 2025E | 2026E ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints - The February PMI was mainly influenced by the Spring Festival holiday, with the slowdown in production and new orders in line with seasonality. In years when the Spring Festival falls in mid - February, the PMI in March usually recovers sharply and is likely to return above the boom - bust line due to concentrated resumption of work and end - of - quarter sprint demand [4][12]. - For the bond market, three aspects of marginal changes in the PMI are worth noting: price, export, and investment. In February, the factory - gate price expansion was relatively strong, the new export orders declined significantly, and investment demand may be building up [4]. Summary by Directory 1. Manufacturing PMI - **Supply and Demand**: New orders continued to decline seasonally in February, with a more significant contraction. The gap between new orders and new export orders widened to 3.6%, indicating that export orders contracted more than domestic orders. Production was dragged down by the Spring Festival, with a month - on - month decrease of 1.0 pct to 49.6%, and high - energy - consuming industries had the largest production decline [2][18][19]. - **Foreign Trade**: New export orders decreased by 2.8 pct to 45.0%, the lowest level in the same period since 2019. Small - sized enterprises' business climate also dropped significantly, suggesting a possible short - term decline in external demand due to the Spring Festival and geopolitical factors [2][22]. - **Price**: The purchase price of raw materials decreased by 1.3 pct to 54.8%, while the factory - gate price remained at 50.6%. The PPI month - on - month may still be strong, as the factory - gate price maintained a strong expansion slope [24]. - **Inventory**: The raw material inventory increased slightly by 0.1 pct, while the finished - product inventory decreased by 2.8 pct to 45.8% due to the Spring Festival, indicating accelerated passive destocking of finished products [31]. 2. Non - manufacturing PMI - **Construction Industry**: The construction industry PMI contracted more severely in February due to project shutdowns during the Spring Festival. However, new orders, employees, and business activity expectations improved, suggesting strong investment demand in the future, especially in March when projects resume work [3][33]. - **Service Industry**: The service industry PMI increased by 0.2 pct to 49.7% in February, boosted by holiday consumption. Industries such as retail, aviation, accommodation, catering, and cultural and entertainment reached a business climate level of 50% - 55% [3][35].

Group 1: Gas Turbines and Power Generation - Gas turbine orders are strong, with companies like Jereh and Siemens Energy reporting high order volumes, including Siemens' record backlog of €146 billion[3] - Jereh has signed four gas turbine contracts with the U.S. since November 2025, indicating robust demand[3] - GE Vernova anticipates significant growth in backlog orders for 2026, with higher profit margins expected from orders received in 2024 and 2025[3] Group 2: Power Transmission and Transformation - TBEA reported domestic power transmission contracts worth ¥41.5 billion from January to September 2025, a year-on-year increase of approximately 10%[4] - International contracts for TBEA's power transmission products reached $1.24 billion, up over 80% year-on-year[4] - China XD Electric secured contracts totaling ¥11.54 billion in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 35.4%[4] Group 3: Shipbuilding Industry - As of December 2025, the shipbuilding industry held 27.442 million deadweight tons in orders, a 31.5% increase year-on-year, representing 66.8% of the global total[5] - The delivery cycle for ships is projected to reach 5.1 years in 2025, the highest since 2009[5] - Shipbuilding output is expected to grow by 18.2% year-on-year, with exports increasing by 26.7%[5] Group 4: Engineering Machinery - Caterpillar reported a record backlog of $51 billion, an increase of $21 billion or 71% year-on-year[6] - Excavator production in 2025 is expected to grow by 16.6%, with exports increasing by 22.16%[6] - In January 2026, excavator sales reached 18,708 units, a 49.5% year-on-year increase[6] Group 5: Semiconductor and Storage Chips - Micron Technology announced that its HBM supply for 2026 is already sold out, reflecting tight supply conditions driven by AI demand[7] - The semiconductor equipment market is projected to grow by over 20% in 2026, with wafer fab equipment spending expected to reach $135 billion[8] - Companies like AMAT and Lam Research express optimism about sustained growth in semiconductor equipment demand[8]

宏观研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【宏观月报】 2 月全球投资十大主线 事 项 2026 年 2 月全球大类资产总体表现为：大宗商品（2.13%）>全球股票（1.59%）> 人民币（1.38%）>全球债券（1.12%）>美元（0.64%）> 0%。 主要观点 十张图速览全球资产脉络。 1、美伊地缘风险担忧下美股避险情绪上升。当前标普 500 指数在 7000 点关键 整数关口面临显著阻力。市场在"恐高"心理与地缘政治（伊朗局势）的双重 压制下，资金行为已呈现出极端化的防御特征。一方面，市场为防范下行风险 大举购入衍生品，导致标普 500 指数的期权偏度升至过去两年来的高位。另一 方面，行业轮动也体现了防御特征，2026 年 1 月以来美股必需消费品显著跑 赢非必需消费品，防御性行业显著跑赢周期性行业，资金从高弹性周期板块向 防御性板块的撤退，反映了市场对下行风险的谨慎。 2、美股相对估值已经回落到过去十年来的低位。尽管美股持续创新高，但其 内部估值经历了盈利的消化后回到了相对低位。一方面从全球视角看，如果剔 除市值加权的影响，标普 500 等权重指数相对于全球（除美外）股市的市盈率 之比已显著回落至 1.11 ...