Market Performance and Strategy - Convertible bonds showed resilience with a slight decline of 0.12% last week, outperforming traditional low-double strategies which fell by 0.40%[2] - The "new low-double" strategy (low pure bond premium + low conversion premium) maintained its advantage, with a weekly decline of only 0.12%[2] - Medium-parity low-double combinations performed better, with a 0.80% compression in the 70-90 parity group's fitting premium rate[17] Valuation and Market Trends - High-parity convertible bonds faced valuation pressure due to weak equity market performance and slowing capital inflows[17] - Balanced low-double convertible bonds still have room for valuation repair, particularly in medium-parity balanced combinations[21] - Large-cap convertible bonds demonstrated more stable performance, benefiting from the robustness of their underlying stocks[23] Issuance and Market Activity - Last week, Lingyi Convertible Bonds were issued with a scale of 2.137 billion yuan, and Hebang Convertible Bonds and Hao 24 Convertible Bonds were listed with a combined scale of 5.15 billion yuan[62] - Six companies received approval for convertible bond issuance, with a total planned issuance scale of approximately 8.104 billion yuan[71] Risk Factors - Risks include significant fluctuations in underlying stocks, compression of convertible bond valuations, and slower-than-expected growth in underlying stock performance[74]

证 券 研 究 报 告 快递行业 2024 年 10 月数据点评 10 月行业件量增速 24%，通达系单票收入环 推荐（维持） 比提升，持续看好行业投资机会 行业：10 月行业件量增速 24%。行业业务量：1）10 月完成业务量 163.1 亿 件，同比增长 24.0%；2）1-10 月累计看，完成业务量 1400.8 亿件，同比增 长 22.3%。行业收入、单价：1）10 月行业收入 1257.9 亿元，同比增长 12.3%，1-10 月累计收入 11224.7 亿元，同比增长 13.9%；2）单票收入：10 月单票收入 7.71 元，同比下降 15.3%，1-10 月票均 8.01 元，同比下降 12.6%。 上市公司业务量：10 月韵达同比增速领先。10 月业务量同比增速：韵达 （31.8%）＞圆通（31.2%）＞申通（30.4%）＞顺丰（26.9%）>行业 （24.0%）。1-10 月业务量累计同比增速：申通（30.7%）>韵达（28.2%）>圆 通（26.6%）>行业（22.3%）＞顺丰（10.9%）。 上市公司快递收入：10 月圆通增速领先。10 月收入增速：圆通（26.9%）> 申通（24.9% ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 房地产行业 2025 年度投资策略 行业研究 房地产 2024 年 11 月 20 日 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------|------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 公司研究 其他通用机械 2024 年 11 月 20 日 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------|---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 行业研究 计算机 2024 年 11 月 20 日 计算机行业 年度投资策略 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------|------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 商贸零售及社服行业 2025 年度投资策略 推荐（维持） 从反弹到反转，把握服务消费主线机会 展望 2025 年，服务消费迎来反转型快速修复，"波澜壮阔"的基本面与估值修 复双击，趋势确立。2024 年行业降价刺激需求，收效甚微，Q3 增收不增利， 企业利润率均受影响。预计进入 Q4 单量与客流进入修复期，间歇性正增长。 纵观 2025 年商贸零售与社会服务、电商本地生活板块，板块面临：1）线上渗 透率增长放缓，标品线上渗透率均至高位，电商价格竞争加剧，品牌投流费用 率较难优化；而线下租金下降，客流回暖，为品质消费、体验消费、精神消费 提供价值空间；2）政策积极落地，以旧换新国家补贴 、各地消费券均促进线 下消费，线下餐饮零售均迎来客流回暖后的基本面修复。 1、把握餐饮、商超变革、酒旅以及美团与 OTA 的持续性修复。高线城市消费 回暖，服务消费为主要刺激方向，餐饮与商超客流有望改善，餐企积极探索第 二成长曲线，加速孵化子品牌；核心关注餐饮经营利润率层面韧性，控制客单 价下滑速度，维持良好的翻台，并且通过菜单调整和经营模式优化来获得更稳 定的经营利润率。我们推荐经营稳健，持续提升股东回 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 通信行业 2025 年度投资策略 推荐（维持） 基本面与宏观叙事共振，重视三大投资方向 展望 2025 年，我们认为市场的投资逻辑会在情绪修复和预期上修之上再叠加 基本面的回暖，通信板块兼具扎实向好的基本面表现和宏观叙事的成长属性， 未来预计仍是具有超额收益的优选配置。我们重点推荐算力、卫星通信/军工 通信和运营商三大主要方向。算力方向一方面基本面受益设备及基建投资落 地，另一方面更高速率更远距离更大密度的 AI 算力连接需求带来更多的演进 方向和投资机会；卫星通信/军工通信近期有望出现基本面向上拐点，预期上 修动力充足；运营商高股息红利投资逻辑清晰，或作为底仓配置贡献稳定收益。 把握 AI 算力主线，挖掘细分板块投资机会。算力作为 2025 年高确定性的成 长投资方向，我们核心推荐算力主线内四个细分板块投资机会：1）AI 带动算 力建设需求，云厂商持续加码 AI 算力投资，全球万卡、十万卡集群不断涌现， 预计 2025 年将延续资本开支持续提升趋势。重点推荐天孚通信、中际旭创、 新易盛，建议关注光迅科技、源杰科技等。2）硅光和 CPO 技术路线确定性较 高，目前国内企业在硅光芯片较为 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 轻工纺服行业 2025 年度投资策略 推荐（维持） 轻舟已过万重山 家居：大浪淘沙，底线思维。1）格局及产业链在变什么？流量端加速碎片化、 终端转化率承压，本质来自新零售（如直播 KOL 种草）及装修公司/拎包/整装 等流量入口影响，且行业痛点已逐步从稳定交付过渡为流量高效获取转化，家 居企业从初期单纯品类扩张逻辑转向流量前置后的套系化销售思路；回到产业 链视角，未来有望呈现龙头间的对话与协同。我们认为，品牌与白牌在需求及 供给侧均呈现分化，"低频家具与中频家居"相结合下、品牌仍有较大拓展空 间。2）过程中谁可能穿越周期？定制更偏向渠道管理学、成品更偏向品牌营 销学。对定制企业来说，总部赋能及渠道服务能力是关键，核心变量为流量转 化、渠道利润（对应渠道推力）、营销落地及售后服务；对成品企业来说，从 强制造转向强零售，立足品牌零售本身寻求渠道及厂家利润率的强安全垫。3） 地产政策强托底下，对以旧换新边际变化怎么看？其一，可参考家电，头部企 业入库早、经销商实力强响应速度快，补贴基础上再让利，特别是定制品类、 本质上是抢占流量先机。其二，首次在家居品类铺开补贴，政策端和上市公司 层面均自上 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 商贸零售行业跟踪报告 推荐（维持） 特朗普上台对跨境电商产业链影响测算 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------|--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for the insurance industry, emphasizing the importance of both asset and liability management [1] Core Views - The insurance sector has experienced three significant trend-driven market movements in 2024, with the third being the most pronounced due to performance expectations and investment-driven beta effects [1] - The current valuation of the insurance sector is at a three-year high, but there is still room for growth from a 5/10-year perspective [1] - The reform of the agent force has stabilized among leading life insurance companies, with improved agent quality expected to drive productivity [1] - Under the new accounting standards, investment performance has become a decisive factor, with equity market volatility significantly impacting profit statements due to increased FVTPL assets [1] - The new business value (NBV) is expected to grow steadily in 2025, supported by improved new business value margins, despite high base effects [1] - The property insurance sector may see a recovery in 2025, driven by normalized agricultural insurance and continued growth in new energy vehicle insurance [1] Investment Strategy - For 2024, investment performance is expected to continue contributing to earnings growth, while life insurance is projected to maintain high NBV growth [1] - Long-term growth opportunities are seen in companies with strong asset management capabilities and those building product barriers [1] - Short-term focus is recommended on high-beta stocks if the equity market rebounds, and on Ping An if real estate policies are validated [1] - Long-term recommendations include China Pacific Insurance (CPIC) for its alpha effects from liability-side reforms and China Life for its stable strategy and lower cost pressures [1] - The property insurance sector is viewed positively, with a focus on the deepening moats of leading companies like China P&C [1] Sector Performance Review - The insurance sector has seen three major trend-driven movements in 2024, with the third being the most significant due to performance expectations and investment-driven beta effects [35] - The sector's valuation is at a three-year high, but there is still room for growth from a 5/10-year perspective [37] - The reform of the agent force has stabilized among leading life insurance companies, with improved agent quality expected to drive productivity [37] Investment Performance Under New Standards - Under the new accounting standards, investment performance has become a decisive factor, with equity market volatility significantly impacting profit statements due to increased FVTPL assets [40] - In Q1-3 2024, the net profit growth of listed insurers improved significantly, driven by equity market recovery and low base effects [41] - Over 80% of the net profit changes in listed insurers came from investment performance, with significant contributions from fair value changes [42] Liability-Side Outlook for 2025 - The new business value (NBV) is expected to grow steadily in 2025, supported by improved new business value margins, despite high base effects [18] - Cost reduction remains a key focus, with potential adjustments to pricing rates and ongoing optimization of expense margins [80] - Dividend insurance is expected to play a more significant role in the product structure, helping to alleviate rigid cost pressures [82] Property Insurance Sector Outlook - The property insurance sector may see a recovery in 2025, driven by normalized agricultural insurance and continued growth in new energy vehicle insurance [22] - The combined ratio (COR) management is expected to improve, with leading insurers actively building risk reduction service systems [24] Key Company Recommendations - The report recommends a focus on China Pacific Insurance (CPIC), Ping An, New China Life, and China Life, with attention also on China P&C H, PICC Group H, and PICC A [103]