港股公司 证 券 研 究 报 告 零跑汽车（09863.HK）深度研究报告 强推（首次） 2026 年零跑将推出 A+D 系列车型以扩充产品矩阵，得益于策略有效性，我们 预计公司 2025-27 年销量 60 万、101 万、128 万辆，同比+105%、+69%、+28%。 [主要财务指标 Indicator_FinchinaSimpleHK] | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万元) | 32,164 | 65,267 | 114,793 | 151,746 | | 同比增速(%) | 92.1% | 102.9% | 75.9% | 32.2% | | 归母净利润(百万元) | -2,821 | 628 | 5,171 | 8,695 | | 同比增速(%) | 33.1% | 122.3% | 723.5% | 68.2% | | 每股盈利(元) | -1.98 | 0.44 | 3.64 | 6.12 | | 市盈率(倍) | -19 | 90 | 11 | 6 | | 市净率(倍 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 【宏观快评】 退税"红包"与 AI 投资：美国经济的增长续航 ——美国四季度 GDP 点评 事 项 四季度美国 GDP 弱于预期，GDP 环比折年率+1.4%，前值+4.4%，预期+2.5%； GDP 同比+2.2%，前值+2.3%，预期+2.5%。2025 年全年美国 GDP 同比+2.2%， 前值+2.8%。 主要观点 ❖ 四季度 GDP 数据分拆 消费方面：Q4 私人消费环比折年率+2.4%，前值+3.5%，预期+2.6%；服务消 费依然是主要拉动项，而耐用品消费增长进一步走弱。2025 年全年私人消费 同比+2.7%，前值+2.9%。 ❖ 风险提示：AI 等产业带来企业投资超预期 ❖ 宏观研究 宏观快评 2026 年 02 月 25 日 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：张瑜 邮箱：zhangyu3@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360518090001 证券分析师：殷雯卿 电话：010-66500892 邮箱：yinwenqing@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360521040002 相关研究报告 《【华创宏观】今年经济工作的"新"部署——政 策周观察第 68 期》 投资 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - In 2025, the number of newly - defaulted credit bond issuers and the scale of defaulted bonds decreased significantly. The default of state - owned enterprises came to an end, while the risks of broad - sense private enterprises continued to be exposed. The scale of default repayment increased, but most real - estate enterprises only paid interest without repaying the principal [1][6][7]. - The overall, non - state - owned marginal and cumulative default rates of credit bonds in 2025 decreased slightly. The net financing scale of non - state - owned enterprises turned positive for the first time since 2018. Industries such as electrical equipment, textile and clothing, real estate, and commercial trade had a cumulative default rate of over 5% [3][19][20]. - Looking forward to 2026, the policy bottom - line is to prevent systemic risks. The overall credit risk is relatively controllable, but the operating pressure of some tail - end entities in certain industries remains, and default risks are still worthy of attention [3][8]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 2025 Credit Bond Market Default Feature Summary - **Newly - defaulted issuers and bond scale**: The number of newly - defaulted credit bond issuers in 2025 decreased to 4, with 3 from the real - estate industry and its upstream and downstream chains. The scale of defaulted bonds continued to decline, and the extended - term part due to the continuous exposure of default risks from 2022 - 2023 ended by the end of 2024 [1][6]. - **Enterprise nature**: State - owned enterprise defaults ended in 2025, while the risks of broad - sense private enterprises continued to be exposed, especially those in the real - estate industry chain that had not defaulted during the previous strict regulatory period [7]. - **Default repayment**: In 2025, there were 118 cases of default bond repayments, with a total principal repayment of 14.3 billion yuan and interest of 639 million yuan. The real - estate industry repaid 12.1 billion yuan in principal, and 11 out of 17 real - estate enterprises only paid interest without repaying the principal [7]. 3.2 Default Analysis: Continuous Exposure of Broad - sense Private Enterprises and Slight Decline in Cumulative Default Rate 3.2.1 Default Overview - The number of newly - defaulted credit bond issuers decreased to 4 in 2025, all non - state - owned. The total outstanding bonds of defaulted issuers increased significantly year - on - year, mainly due to the extension of Vanke's large - scale bonds. The scale of defaulted bonds decreased by 67% year - on - year [11]. - Industry - wide, since 2014, credit bond default issuers have been widely distributed across 29 Shenwan industries, and in 2025, they were mainly in real estate, building decoration, and power equipment. Regionally, since 2014, default issuers have covered most provinces, and in 2025, they were in Guangdong and Zhejiang [14]. 3.2.2 Default Rate - The overall, non - state - owned marginal and cumulative default rates of credit bonds in 2025 decreased slightly. The non - state - owned net financing scale turned positive for the first time since 2018 to 24.3 billion yuan [19]. - Industries such as electrical equipment, textile and clothing, real estate, and commercial trade had a cumulative default rate of over 5%, with real estate and commercial trade having relatively high default scales, and electrical equipment and textile and clothing having relatively low total bond - issuing scales [20]. 3.2.3 Default Reasons - Macroeconomic policies and market environment continuously affected the credit risks of entities. Entities like Xinjie Holdings, Zhengxinglong Real Estate, and Vanke were greatly affected by the previous strict real - estate regulatory policies, while Shanshan Group's poor performance was due to industry cycle changes [3][25]. 3.3 Default Recovery Situation - The cumulative recovery rate and recovery time of defaulted credit bonds have been decreasing year by year. Since 2020, the annual default recovery rate has been less than 20%, and the average recovery time is within two years, with the decline narrowing in 2025 [30]. - As of 2025, the cumulative default recovery rate of state - owned enterprises was 25.12%, 13 percentage points higher than that of non - state - owned enterprises, and the gap remained basically the same as the previous year [33]. - In 2025, real - estate bond repayments still dominated. The total principal repayment of defaulted bonds was 14.3 billion yuan, with the real - estate industry repaying 12.1 billion yuan. Sunac repaid 9.5 billion yuan in principal, and Shanshan Group among the newly - defaulted issuers in 2025 repaid 267 million yuan in principal [37].

25Q4 险资运用点评： 25Q4 险资运用：权益配置维持历史高位 本周行情复盘：保险指数下降 2.52%，跑输大盘 2.88pct。保险个股表现分化， 财险 4.67%，众安 4.27%，国寿-0.17%，阳光-0.24%，人保-1.44%，平安-2.41%， 太平-2.60%，新华-3.06%，友邦-3.83%，太保-4.28%。十年期国债到期收益率 1.79%，较上周末-2bps。 本周动态： （1）国家金融监督管理总局：截至 2025 年四季度末，保险公司资金运用余额 近 38.5 万亿元，人身险公司的资金运用余额为 34.66 万亿元，财产险公司的资 金运用余额为 2.42 万亿元；保险公司平均综合偿付能力充足率为 181.1%，核 心偿付能力充足率为 130.4%，其中财产险公司分别为 243.5%、212.7%，人身 险公司分别为 169.3%、115.0%，再保险公司分别为 244.6%、212.5%。 （2）财联社：据财联社记者从业内获悉，目前市面上已经出现预定利率为 1.25%的分红险产品，这较去年监管划定的分红险预定利率上限 1.75%，出现 了明显下调。在寿险"老六家"中，至少已有 4 ...

25Q4 险资运用：权益配置维持历史高位 本周行情复盘：保险指数下降 2.52%，跑输大盘 2.88pct。保险个股表现分化， 财险 4.67%，众安 4.27%，国寿-0.17%，阳光-0.24%，人保-1.44%，平安-2.41%， 太平-2.60%，新华-3.06%，友邦-3.83%，太保-4.28%。十年期国债到期收益率 1.79%，较上周末-2bps。 证 券 研 究 报 告 保险行业周报（20260209-20260213） 本周动态： （1）国家金融监督管理总局：截至 2025 年四季度末，保险公司资金运用余额 近 38.5 万亿元，人身险公司的资金运用余额为 34.66 万亿元，财产险公司的资 金运用余额为 2.42 万亿元；保险公司平均综合偿付能力充足率为 181.1%，核 心偿付能力充足率为 130.4%，其中财产险公司分别为 243.5%、212.7%，人身 险公司分别为 169.3%、115.0%，再保险公司分别为 244.6%、212.5%。 （2）财联社：据财联社记者从业内获悉，目前市面上已经出现预定利率为 1.25%的分红险产品，这较去年监管划定的分红险预定利率上限 1.75%， ...

公司研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 中航西飞（000768）深度研究报告 推荐（首次） 鲲鹏凌云、振翼西飞——华创交运|航空强国 系列研究（五） 航空军工 2026 年 02 月 24 日 当前价：30.48 元 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：吴一凡 邮箱：wuyifan@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360516090002 证券分析师：梁婉怡 邮箱：liangwanyi@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360523080001 证券分析师：吴晨玥 邮箱：wuchenyue@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360523070001 证券分析师：霍鹏浩 邮箱：huopenghao@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360524030001 证券分析师：卢浩敏 邮箱：luhaomin@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360524090001 证券分析师：李清影 邮箱：liqingying@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360525080004 联系人：刘邢雨 邮箱：liuxingyu@hcyjs.com 公司基本数据 | 总股本(万股) | 278,114.91 | | --- | --- | | 已 ...

公司研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 中航西飞（000768）深度研究报告 推荐（首次） 鲲鹏凌云、振翼西飞——华创交运|航空强国 系列研究（五） 航空军工 2026 年 02 月 24 日 邮箱：liangwanyi@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360523080001 证券分析师：吴晨玥 邮箱：wuchenyue@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360523070001 证券分析师：霍鹏浩 邮箱：huopenghao@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360524030001 证券分析师：卢浩敏 当前价：30.48 元 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：吴一凡 邮箱：wuyifan@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360516090002 证券分析师：梁婉怡 | 总股本(万股) | 278,114.91 | | --- | --- | | 已上市流通股(万股) | 277,273.60 | | 总市值(亿元) | 844.91 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 842.36 | | 资产负债率(%) | 70.58 | | 每股净资产(元) | 7.84 | | 12 个月内最高/最低价 | 31.07/21 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 房地产行业周报（2026 年 7-8 周） 春节前后新房与二手房成交面积同比减少， 推荐（维持） 中海新增香港九龙牛头角地块 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：单戈 邮箱：shange@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360522110001 证券分析师：许常捷 邮箱：xuchangjie@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360525030002 证券分析师：杨航 邮箱：yanghang@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360525090001 行业基本数据 行业研究 房地产 2026 年 02 月 24 日 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数(只) | 107 | 0.01 | | 总市值(亿元) | 12,627.81 | 0.99 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 12,094.33 | 1.18 | 相对指数表现 | % | 1M | 6M | 12M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 绝对表现 | 0.9% | 3.7% | 5.7% | | 相对表现 | 3.0% | -7.9% | -13.7% | -12% ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 房地产行业周报（2026 年 7-8 周） 春节前后新房与二手房成交面积同比减少， 推荐（维持） 中海新增香港九龙牛头角地块 行业研究 房地产 2026 年 02 月 24 日 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：单戈 邮箱：shange@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360522110001 证券分析师：许常捷 邮箱：xuchangjie@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360525030002 证券分析师：杨航 邮箱：yanghang@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360525090001 行业基本数据 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数(只) | 107 | 0.01 | | 总市值(亿元) | 12,627.81 | 0.99 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 12,094.33 | 1.18 | 相对指数表现 | % | 1M | 6M | 12M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 绝对表现 | 0.9% | 3.7% | 5.7% | | 相对表现 | 3.0% | -7.9% | -13.7% | -12% ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 杠杆资金净流出规模续创25年4月以来新高 ——流动性&交易拥挤度&投资者温度计周报 2026年2月24日 证券分析师：姚佩 执业编号：S0360522120004 邮箱：yaopei@hcyjs.com 联系人：朱冬墨 邮箱：zhudongmo@hcyjs.com 本报告由华创证券有限责任公司编制 卖的出价或询价。本报告所载信息均为个人观点，并不构成对所涉及证券的个人投资建议。 请仔细阅读PPT后部分的分析师声明及免责声明。 @2021 华创 版权所有 核心结论 证 券 研 究 报 告 • 资金流动性： 证监会审核华创证券投资咨询业务资格批文号：证监许可（2009）1210 号 2 证 券 研 究 报 告 资金流动性：1）资金供给端：偏股型公募新发规模重回历史高位、杠杆资金净流出规模续创25年4月以来新高、 股票型ETF净流出规模扩大、回购金额收缩至历史低位；2）资金需求端：股权融资/产业资本净减持规模均小幅 扩张、南向资金净流入收缩至历史中高位。 | 资金供给 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 资金供给主体(亿元) | 上 期 | 本 期 | 近 ...