证 券 研 究 报 告 【债券周报】 30-10y 利差会到多少？ ——债券周报 20260315 二、同业活期存款监管"打补丁"，影响几何？ 同业活期存款利率迎来监管升级，压降同业活期存款中超过 OMO 利率部分 的占比。2024 年 11 月监管仅规定同业活期存款（不含基础设施存款）加权不 超过 OMO 利率，在实务操作中，非银活期存款多采用组合搭配的销售方式， 导致部分存款定价偏高。本次监管升级，新增要求高于 7 天逆回购 OMO 政策 利率（1.4%）的同业活期存款规模季度末占比不超过 10%-20%。 对比 2024 年监管，有何不同？（1）规模影响或相对较小。2024 年非银存款 定价整改对于非银活期、定期中提支部分均有影响，彼时非银存款 28 万亿。 当前同业活期接近 17.8 万亿，假设需要压降的部分为 20-30%，对应的影响规 模在 3 至 5 万亿。（2）对于负债的改善幅度或有限。上市银行 2025 年 Q1 负 债成本较 2024 年年末下行 30bp 左右；假设目前高于 OMO 的同业活期存款利 率压降 10-40bp，按照上述 3 至 5 万亿的体量来估算，带动负债成本下行的幅 度 ...

存单周报（0309-0314）：供不应求，低位运行 对于存单而言，供不应求的格局下，短期或在接近 1.55%的区间低位波动，关 注季末资金边际变化。供给方面，上周存单发行攀升至 8000 亿元附近，但因 周度到期规模偏大，周度净融资转负，关注银行季末信贷投放情况，至月末仍 有较大的存单到期压力；需求方面，农商行仍是主要的配置机构，但息差空间 压缩后，二级市场边际买入量有所下降。监管方面，根据财联社消息，本周同 业活期自律管理进一步升级，明确超出 OMO 利率的活期存款的占比要求不超 过 10-20%，对比 2024 年年末监管政策看，本次整改仅针对超标部分的活期存 款，覆盖面更小，且利率压降幅度或有限（监管已限制非银活期加权不超过逆 回购利率），预计对负债成本的改善在 1bp 内。不过，当前存单市场处于"供 不应求"的环境中，高息活期存款的配置需求或向存单等进一步转移，进而带 动本周存单定价小幅下行。整体来看，当前流动性环境相对稳定，但结合买断 式逆回购回笼的操作，资金进一步宽松的空间有限，在不降息的预期下， 1yMLF 及资金价格（DR007）对存单形成下限约束，且不排除本月 MLF 操作 与买断式逆回购类 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment rating for the automotive industry, suggesting an active investment approach as the market sentiment has reached a turning point [3][6]. Core Insights - The report indicates that the terminal sales of passenger vehicles and the overall vehicle sector are showing signs of recovery, with new car price increases being accepted by some investors as a counter to rising raw material costs [3][6]. - The report highlights that the AIDC (Automotive Industry Development Corporation) remains a key investment focus, despite some stock price adjustments in companies like Weichai [3][6]. - The report recommends actively positioning in the automotive sector, particularly in the months of March and April, with expectations of exceeding sales, profitability, and export forecasts [6]. Data Tracking - In February, new energy vehicle deliveries showed varied performance, with BYD delivering 190,190 units (down 41.1% year-on-year), while NIO saw a significant increase of 57.6% year-on-year with 20,797 units delivered [5][20]. - Traditional automakers also showed notable sales performance, with BAIC Blue Valley achieving a year-on-year increase of 18.3% with 7,000 units sold [5][21]. - The average discount rate in the automotive industry increased to 9.3%, with a discount amount of 20,940 yuan, reflecting a slight year-on-year decrease [5][7]. Industry News - The report notes that the average price of lithium carbonate in Q1 2026 reached 154,227 yuan per ton, marking a year-on-year increase of 103% [9]. - The report mentions that the automotive export volume in February reached 672,000 units, representing a year-on-year growth of 52.4% [10][26]. - The report highlights that the East Wind Group's capital restructuring plan was approved, allowing for the privatization and independent listing of Lantu Motors on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [26].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the transportation industry, indicating an expected increase in the industry index exceeding the benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 3-6 months [78]. Core Insights - The report highlights the significant impact of the ongoing Middle East conflict on shipping rates, with oil tanker rates experiencing a decline but remaining at historical highs, while container shipping rates are on the rise [1][2]. - The daily average of vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz has drastically decreased by 95% to 5 vessels, compared to 125 vessels before the conflict, with oil tankers averaging only 1 vessel per day [1][11]. - Brent crude oil futures have shown substantial volatility, closing at $103.89 per barrel, an increase of 11% from March 6 [1][15]. Industry Data Tracking Shipping Market Impact - Oil shipping rates have adjusted from historical highs, with the Clarksons VLCC-TCE index at $175,000, down 54.2% week-on-week. The Middle East to China route is reported at $390,000 per day, down 17% [2][18]. - Container shipping rates have increased, with the SCFI index reaching 1710 points, up 14.9% week-on-week, driven by rising fuel costs and the ongoing geopolitical situation [2][25]. - The dry bulk shipping market has seen limited impact, with the BDI index at 2028 points, reflecting a 0.9% increase week-on-week [2][26]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that if the Middle East conflict remains manageable and the passage through the Strait of Hormuz gradually resumes, it could trigger a replenishment market. The report continues to recommend companies such as China Merchants Energy and COSCO Shipping Energy [3][31]. - Emphasis is placed on the importance of energy resource security, with recommendations for logistics and warehousing companies like Hongchuan Wisdom and Milky Way [3][31]. - The report also highlights the potential for growth in the aviation sector, with a focus on major airlines and logistics companies, suggesting a favorable outlook for companies like China Southern Airlines and Spring Airlines [4][58].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for EHang Intelligent (EH) [1] Core Insights - EHang Intelligent achieved a total revenue of 510 million yuan in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 11.7%. The fourth quarter saw a revenue of 244 million yuan, with a significant year-on-year increase of 48.4% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 163.6% [6] - The company reported a net loss attributable to shareholders of 231 million yuan for the full year 2025, while the fourth quarter showed a net profit of 10.49 million yuan. The adjusted net profit for the year was 29.4 million yuan, marking the second consecutive year of non-GAAP profitability, with Q4 adjusted net profit reaching 71.5 million yuan [6] - EHang delivered a total of 221 eVTOL products in 2025, including 215 EH216 series products and 6 VT35 aircraft. The fourth quarter alone saw the highest quarterly delivery of 100 units [6] - The commercial operation of EH216-S in China is set to officially launch in March 2026, with two operators, EHang General Aviation and He Yi Aviation, starting ticketed aerial sightseeing services [6] - EHang is also making progress in overseas commercialization, with plans to obtain its first overseas commercial operation license in Thailand, Qatar, and Japan [6] Financial Summary - The total revenue forecast for 2026 is adjusted to 619 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 21.5%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be a loss of 182 million yuan, while the adjusted net profit is expected to be 76 million yuan [2][6] - For 2027, the revenue is forecasted to reach 900 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 45.4%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to narrow to a loss of 32 million yuan, and the adjusted net profit is projected to be 206 million yuan [2][6] - The report introduces a new revenue forecast for 2028 at 1.1 billion yuan, with an expected net profit of 16 million yuan and an adjusted net profit of 280 million yuan [6]

观点：我们认为当前中东冲突加剧海外供给脆弱性，将加剧全球原铝偏紧格 局，铝价呈现高波震荡，当前铝格局或不只是冲突导致的短期区域性供给受限 问题，或因能源问题衍生到全球性范围，关注板块机会。当前看中东区域已经 明确卡塔尔减产 40%，其全面复产或需 6-12 个月，供给短期难以恢复；考虑 霍尔木兹海峡封闭限制原料/铝锭贸易，对中东生产&全球现货双杀，中东氧化 铝高度依赖进口，铝锭高度依赖出口，目前中东冲突已经持续 2 周，中东地区 氧化铝原料面临库存偏紧局面，将影响氧化铝自给率低的中东企业供给稳定 性，同时影响全球现货供给，从近期看，中东问题叠加部分国家与地区对俄铝 实施贸易管制带来显性缺货压力，LME 现货紧张程度持续加剧，LME 注销仓 单持续攀升，可实际动用库存已降至 2025 年 5 月以来最低，海外铝流动性 影响下升水持续攀升，对伦铝价格支撑性强。 此外，需警惕本轮因能源成本上涨导致的供给风险向全球化波及。当前冲突已 造成原油、欧洲天然气等能源价格暴涨，考虑电力占电解铝成本 30-40%，能 源上涨或导致电解铝电力成本攀升从而压缩企业利润，导致部分高成本地区企 业减产或停产。以 2022 年俄乌冲突的 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for the automotive industry, indicating that the sentiment has reached an inflection point and AIDC remains a key investment direction [3][4]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the terminal sales of passenger vehicles and the complete vehicle sector have shown signs of recovery, with new car price increases being recognized by some investors as a counter to rising raw material costs. Additionally, the increase in oil and gas prices has contributed to a positive shift in investment sentiment [3][4]. - The report suggests that the automotive sector is expected to see improved sales, profitability, and exports in March and April, with specific recommendations for companies such as Geely, BYD, and Jianghuai Automotive [6][10]. Data Tracking - In February, new energy vehicle deliveries showed varied performance, with BYD delivering 190,190 units (down 41.1% year-on-year), while NIO saw a significant increase of 57.6% year-on-year with 20,797 units delivered [5][20]. - Traditional automakers also reported significant sales changes, with SAIC Motor leading with 269,000 units sold (down 8.6% year-on-year) [5][21]. - The average discount rate in the industry increased to 9.3%, with a discount amount of 20,940 yuan, reflecting a slight year-on-year decrease [5][7]. Industry News - The report notes that the average price of lithium carbonate in Q1 2026 reached 154,227 yuan per ton, marking a 103% year-on-year increase [9]. - The automotive export figures for February showed a significant growth of 52.4% year-on-year, with a total of 672,000 vehicles exported [10][26]. - The report mentions that the capital restructuring plan of Dongfeng Motor Corporation was approved, allowing it to privatize and list its high-end electric vehicle brand, Lantu, on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [26].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for the aluminum sector, highlighting ongoing supply disruptions and recovering demand as key factors for price fluctuations [2]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes that ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are exacerbating supply vulnerabilities, leading to a tight global aluminum market and high price volatility. The aluminum price is expected to remain elevated due to these factors [3][4]. - Domestic aluminum processing enterprises have shown a recovery in operating rates, with a 2.4 percentage point increase to 61.9% week-on-week, indicating a positive trend in demand recovery [3]. - The report suggests that the current geopolitical situation may not only be a short-term issue but could lead to a broader global supply crisis, particularly affecting aluminum and alumina imports and exports from the Middle East [3][4]. Industry Data Summary Production Data - The average profit for the electrolytic aluminum industry is around 8,800 CNY/ton, with expectations for sustained high profitability in the future [5]. - The report notes that the operating rates for various aluminum sectors have increased, with aluminum wire and cable production rising by 2 percentage points to 65%, and aluminum profiles seeing a significant increase of 7.3 percentage points to 51.8% [3]. Inventory Data - Global aluminum inventories are reported to be at historically low levels, with LME registered warehouse receipts continuing to rise, indicating a tightening supply situation [4][5]. Consumption Data - The report highlights that domestic aluminum apparent consumption is on an upward trend, with expectations for improved performance during the "Golden March" consumption period [4]. Company Performance - The report mentions that Jiaozuo Wanfang has achieved record high performance in 2025, with a revenue of 6.495 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 0.46%, and a net profit of 1.071 billion CNY, up 81.95% year-on-year [6][11]. - The company is also pursuing a significant asset restructuring to enhance its resource security and profitability stability by integrating its operations across the aluminum value chain [11]. Stock Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies within the aluminum sector such as China Hongqiao, Hongchuang Holdings, and others, indicating a positive outlook for the aluminum and precious metals sectors [12].

公司研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 亿航智能（EH）2025 年业绩点评 推荐（维持） 2025 年调整后净利 2940 万元，商业化运营 大幕将启 [ReportFinancialIndex] 主要财务指标 | | 2025A | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万) | 510 | 619 | 900 | 1,102 | | 同比增速(%) | 11.7% | 21.5% | 45.4% | 22.5% | | 归母净利润(百万) | -231 | -182 | -32 | 16 | | 同比增速(%) | -0.3% | 21.1% | 82.5% | 150.3% | | 调整后净利润（百万） | 29 | 76 | 206 | 276 | | 同比增速(%) | -32.9% | 163.8% | 170.8% | 33.8% | | 每股盈利(元) | -1.60 | -1.26 | -0.22 | 0.11 | | 市盈率(倍，调整后) | 213 | 81 | 30 | 22 | | 市净率(倍) ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 涨价链：谁受益？谁承压？ 2026年3月15日 证券分析师：姚 佩 执业编号：S0360522120004 邮箱：yaopei@hcyjs.com 证券分析师：丁炎晨 执业编号：S0360523070005 邮箱：dingyanchen@hcyjs.com 本报告由华创证券有限责任公司编制 卖的出价或询价。本报告所载信息均为个人观点，并不构成对所涉及证券的个人投资建议。 请仔细阅读PPT后部分的分析师声明及免责声明。 @2021 华创 版权所有 涨价链：谁受益？谁承压？ 证 券 研 究 报 告 2 • 近期地缘政治冲突引发油价大涨，市场对通胀回归的预期持续升温，根据华创宏观团队测算，油价每涨10%，对PPI的拉动或约0.3-0.4pct，策略视角更关注企业业绩层面， 以及结构上各行业的成本压力和利润传导。 • 通胀回归背景下的行业比较：复盘历史上典型的通胀回归周期，上游最为受益，毛利率扩张提供利润空间；制造业与消费整体承压，但分化明显，与产业周期景气度相关性 强；公用事业承压，成本高度依赖上游原材料，而终端价格受政策调控难以顺畅传导。 • 油价上涨的三条传导路径： 公用事业链：石油天然 ...