Group 1: Fiscal Revenue Trends - In October, general fiscal revenue decreased by 0.6% year-on-year, compared to a 3.2% increase in September[1] - The five real estate-related taxes remained nearly flat year-on-year at -1.4%, while land sales revenue dropped by 27.3%, marking the lowest monthly growth since August of the previous year[2] - Tax revenue growth was relatively high at 8.6%, leading to a negative growth rate in general fiscal revenue due to the significant decline in land sales revenue[2] Group 2: Real Estate Tax Observations - Non-transaction taxes (urban land use tax, arable land occupation tax, property tax) increased by 6.4% year-on-year, contributing to the divergence from land sales revenue[3] - Transaction-related taxes (land value-added tax, deed tax) fell by 16%, correlating with the 27.3% drop in land sales revenue[3] Group 3: Land Sales Revenue Analysis - City investment platforms contributed 30% to 40% of land sales revenue, but this was based on unsustainable practices[4] - The proportion of land acquired by city investment platforms is expected to drop from 33.4% in 2024 to 24.8% in 2023, returning to 2021 levels[4] - The concentration of land sales revenue among the top 10 cities reached 48%, significantly higher than previous years, indicating a structural shift in the market[5]

湖南海利（600731）2025 年三季报点评 强推（维持） 业绩略弱于预期，股权激励推进顺利 目标价：10.5 元 事项： ❖ 公司发布 2025 年三季报，前三季度公司实现营业收入 14.79 亿元，同比下降 13.36%；归属于上市公司股东的净利润为 1.98 亿元，同比微降 1.24%；实现 扣非归母净利润 1.51 亿元，同比下降了 18.4%。 评论： [ReportFinancialIndex] 主要财务指标 | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万) | 2,471 | 2,670 | 3,645 | 4,333 | | 同比增速(%) | 4.1% | 8.1% | 36.5% | 18.9% | | 归母净利润(百万) | 265 | 297 | 393 | 500 | | 同比增速(%) | -3.1% | 11.9% | 32.2% | 27.4% | | 每股盈利(元) | 0.47 | 0.53 | 0.70 | 0.89 | | 市盈率(倍) | 16 | 15 | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the wind power industry, particularly for companies like Mingyang Smart Energy [2]. Core Insights - The wind power industry is experiencing a recovery in pricing and profitability, driven by a combination of factors including policy changes and robust domestic and international demand [6][7]. - The profitability of wind turbine manufacturers is increasingly reliant on wind farm development and operation, as manufacturing margins have been under pressure due to price wars and competition [11][15]. - The trend of turbine size increasing is slowing down, leading to a more concentrated industry as smaller players exit due to unsustainable losses [5][39]. Summary by Sections 1. Profit Structure of Wind Turbine Manufacturers - Wind turbine manufacturers derive profits from two main areas: equipment manufacturing and wind resource development, with the latter gaining a larger share of profits over time [11][15]. - The manufacturing sector has seen a significant decline in profit margins, with some companies reporting negative margins due to intense price competition [37][39]. 2. Recovery of Turbine Prices and Industry Profitability - Turbine prices have bottomed out and are expected to rise, with a projected increase of approximately 10% from the previous year [40][56]. - The industry is witnessing a shift from low-price competition to a focus on quality and sustainable pricing, supported by new policies aimed at curbing price wars [45][46]. 3. Domestic Demand and International Market Opportunities - Domestic wind power installation is projected to exceed 120 GW in 2025, driven by a robust bidding environment and government support for large-scale projects [60][62]. - Internationally, markets in Europe and emerging regions in Asia, Africa, and Latin America are expected to see significant growth, with annual additions projected to double in the next five years [5][60]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies like Goldwind Technology, Mingyang Smart Energy, and Sany Heavy Energy, as they are well-positioned to benefit from the recovery in turbine prices and strong demand [5][6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the aviation industry, indicating an expectation of growth exceeding the benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 3-6 months [4][60]. Core Insights - The aviation industry is experiencing a positive turning point, with passenger load factors reaching their highest levels of the year and ticket prices showing a year-on-year increase of 8.9% [4][3]. - The supply-demand dynamics are more favorable than in 2019 and 2024, with structural improvements in demand, particularly in business travel and cross-border travel [4]. - The report highlights the constraints on supply due to maintenance backlogs and low growth in new aircraft introductions, reinforcing the supply-side constraints [4]. Summary by Sections October Data Analysis - In October, the ASK (Available Seat Kilometers) growth rates were led by Spring Airlines at 16.5%, followed by China Southern Airlines at 7.5% and China Eastern Airlines at 6.8% [1]. - The RPK (Revenue Passenger Kilometers) growth rates for October were also led by Spring Airlines at 20.1%, with China Eastern Airlines at 10.6% and China Southern Airlines at 8.8% [1]. - Cumulatively from January to October, Spring Airlines again led with ASK growth of 11.7% and RPK growth of 11.4% [1]. Passenger Load Factor - In October, the passenger load factors were highest for Spring Airlines at 93.2%, followed by China Southern Airlines at 87.9% and China Eastern Airlines at 87.5% [3]. - Year-to-date, Spring Airlines maintained a load factor of 91.5%, slightly down by 0.2% year-on-year, while China Southern Airlines improved by 1.5% to 85.9% [3]. Fleet Size - As of October 2025, the five listed airlines collectively added 7 aircraft, with a year-on-year fleet size increase of 3.5% [3][15]. Pricing Trends - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in October showed a year-on-year increase of 0.2%, with air ticket prices rising by 8.9% [3]. Investment Recommendations - The report emphasizes a positive outlook for investments in major airlines such as Air China, China Southern Airlines, and China Eastern Airlines, highlighting their potential for elasticity in performance [4]. - It also recommends focusing on low-cost carriers like Spring Airlines and regional leaders like Huaxia Airlines, which are expected to reach sustainable operational turning points [4].

证 券 研 究 报 告 计算机行业深度研究报告 推荐（维持） 海外 AI 应用：从大模型到各领域落地 行业研究 计算机 2025 年 11 月 18 日 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：吴鸣远 邮箱：wumingyuan@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360523040001 联系人：杨玖祎 邮箱：yangjiuyi@hcyjs.com 行业基本数据 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数(只) | 338 | 0.04 | | 总市值(亿元) | 60,550.68 | 4.98 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 54,914.11 | 5.60 | 相对指数表现 | % | 1M | 6M | 12M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 绝对表现 | -5.9% | 27.2% | 31.4% | | 相对表现 | -7.4% | 5.8% | 15.4% | -10% 7% 23% 39% 24/11 25/01 25/04 25/06 25/09 25/11 2024-11-18~2025-11-14 计算机 沪深300 相关研究报告 《计算机 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：韩星雨 邮箱：hanxingyu@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360525050001 证券分析师：陆偲聪 邮箱：lusicong@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360525050002 家电行业 2025Q3 基金重仓分析 重仓家电比例下降，家电上游及清洁电器获 推荐（维持） 增配 行业研究 家电 2025 年 11 月 18 日 行业基本数据 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数(只) | 80 | 0.01 | | 总市值(亿元) | 20,320.65 | 1.67 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 18,146.56 | 1.85 | 相对指数表现 | % | 1M | 6M | 12M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 绝对表现 | 5.4% | 8.0% | 9.9% | | 相对表现 | 3.4% | -9.4% | -4.7% | -11% -2% 8% 18% 24/11 25/01 25/04 25/06 25/09 25/11 2024-11-18~2025-11 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 保险行业周报（20251110-20251114） 25Q3 险资提升核心权益资产配置 本周行情复盘：保险指数上涨 2.62%，跑赢大盘 3.71pct。保险个股表现分化， 太平+10.96%，人保+3.16%，平安+2.99%，太保+1.91%，新华+1.46%，国寿 +1.24%，友邦+1.04%，众安+0.74%，阳光-0.53%，财险-2.75%。10 年期国债 收益率 1.81%，较上周末持平。 本周动态： （1）金融监管总局：①截至 2025Q3，险资资金运用余额达到 37.5 万亿，其 中财产险公司 2.39 万亿，人身险公司 33.73 万亿。②截至 2025Q3，保险公司 综合/核心偿付能力充足率为 186.3%/134.3%，财产险公司综合/核心偿付能力 充足率为 240.8%/212.9%，人身险公司分别对应 175.5%/118.9%，再保险公司 分别对应 246.2%/216.7%。环比来看，仅财产险公司实现偿付能力同比提升。 （2）格隆汇：据联交所，2025 年 11 月 6 日，新天绿色能源获长城人寿增持 773.7 万股。增持后，长城人寿最新持股数目为 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Geely Automobile (00175.HK) with a target price of HKD 26.00, indicating a potential upside of 51% from the current price [1][7]. Core Insights - Geely Automobile's Q3 2025 performance shows significant growth, with revenue reaching HKD 89.2 billion, a year-on-year increase of 27% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 15%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was HKD 3.82 billion, up by HKD 1.4 billion year-on-year and HKD 0.2 billion quarter-on-quarter [1][7]. - The company is entering a new product cycle with several competitive new models launched, including the Galaxy A7 and Galaxy M9, which are expected to drive sales growth. The sales volume in October reached 307,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 35% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 12% [7][8]. - The report highlights the company's improved cost control, with a sales expense ratio of 6.0%, a management expense ratio of 1.5%, and a research and development expense ratio of 4.9% [7]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for Geely Automobile are as follows: - 2024A: HKD 241.1 billion - 2025E: HKD 344.8 billion - 2026E: HKD 446.3 billion - 2027E: HKD 493.4 billion - The net profit projections are: - 2024A: HKD 16.6 billion - 2025E: HKD 17.8 billion - 2026E: HKD 24.0 billion - 2027E: HKD 27.2 billion [3][9]. Market Position and Valuation - Geely's valuation is considered low compared to its growth potential, with a projected PE ratio of 9x for 2025 and 7x for 2026. The report suggests that the current market pessimism presents a good investment opportunity [7][8]. - The report anticipates that the company will benefit from a recovery in the automotive market and an increase in overseas sales, with total sales expected to reach 3.04 million, 3.73 million, and 4.02 million units from 2025 to 2027, respectively [7][9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for the electronic-grade materials sector, indicating a positive outlook for investment in this area [1]. Core Insights - The new materials sector outperformed the broader market but underperformed compared to the basic chemical sector, with a weekly change of 0.32% for the new materials index, while the basic chemical index saw a change of 2.61% [9]. - Significant price increases were observed in electronic-grade sulfuric acid (+26.09%), 6F (+24.69%), and PVDF (+4.00%), while notable declines were seen in oxygen (-2.61%), lysine (-1.83%), and epoxy resin (-1.38%) [22][26]. - The demand for energy storage has driven a price surge in the electrolyte supply chain, with battery-grade vinyl carbonate (VC) prices rising nearly 30% over two months, reaching approximately 66,000 yuan per ton [10]. - India is set to launch a nationwide Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) policy, with aviation fuel demand projected to reach 15-16 million tons by 2030 and over 30 million tons by 2040, potentially reducing emissions by about 80% [11]. - The Chinese government aims to achieve a wind and solar installed capacity of 3.6 billion kilowatts by 2035, significantly increasing the share of non-fossil energy consumption [11]. Summary by Sections Industry Update - The new materials sector showed a weekly increase, with the top gainers being companies like Yongtai Technology and Aoke Co., while the biggest losers included Xiangyuan New Materials and Xinhang New Materials [9][26]. - The report highlights the strong performance of new energy materials and optical films within the new materials sector [9]. Trading Data - The Huachuang Chemical Industry Index stood at 67.92, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 1.66% but a year-on-year decrease of 21.52% [20]. - The industry price percentile is at 15.54% over the past decade, indicating a slight increase [20]. New Materials Subsector Tracking - The report tracks various subsectors, including new energy materials, consumer electronics materials, and hydrogen energy, noting significant developments and price movements in each [6]. - The report emphasizes the importance of domestic production capabilities in new materials, particularly in light of U.S.-China trade tensions [12][13].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the consumer services industry [3]. Core Insights - The consumer services industry is experiencing a marginal improvement in revenue growth driven by strong travel demand [2]. - For the first three quarters of 2025, the social services industry achieved a revenue of 178.43 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.2%, and a net profit of 10.09 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 14.4% [11]. - The overall gross profit margin for the industry is 23.8%, down by 2.0 percentage points year-on-year [11]. Summary by Sections Overall Industry Situation - In the first three quarters of 2025, the social services industry saw stable revenue growth but a decline in profit margins, with revenue reaching 178.43 billion yuan and net profit at 10.09 billion yuan [11]. - The comprehensive gross profit margin was 23.8%, with a net profit margin of 5.7%, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 1.0 percentage points [11]. Sub-Industry Analysis - **Hotels**: The hotel sector showed a sequential improvement in operations, with RevPAR for Jinjiang and Shouqi recovering to 101.1% and 94.3% of 2019 levels, respectively [31]. - **Tourism and Scenic Areas**: There is significant performance differentiation among tourism companies, with some showing positive net profit growth while others face declines [40]. - **Dining**: The dining sector's performance is mixed, with some leading companies demonstrating resilience through innovation and brand strength [27]. - **Duty-Free**: The duty-free sector is showing signs of stabilization, with a narrowing revenue decline and positive growth in Hainan's duty-free sales [27]. - **Human Resources Services**: The human resources sector continues to thrive, driven by flexible employment needs and digital transformation [27]. - **Exhibitions**: The exhibition industry is under short-term pressure but is benefiting from a recovery in domestic demand and international exchanges [27].