证 券 研 究 报 告 家电行业 2025 年度投资策略 行业研究 家电 2024 年 11 月 19 日 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------|--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

本次电话会议仅服务于华创证券研究所客户不构成投资建议相关人员应自主作出投资决策并自行承担投资风险华创证券不应使用本次内容所导致的任何损失承担任何责任专家发言内容仅代表专家个人观点不代表本公司观点 本次会议内容不得涉及国家保密信息、内幕信息、未公开重大信息、商业秘密、个人隐私不得涉及可能引发不当炒作或股价异常波动的敏感信息不得涉及影响社会或资本市场稳定的言论未经华创证券事先书面许可 任何机构或个人不得以任何形式复制、刊载、转载、转发、引用本次会议内容否则由此造成的一切后果及法律责任由该机构或个人承担本公司保留追究其法律责任的权利市场有风险投资需谨慎 大家好 我们这周珠宝的标题很多人问 说这什么意思 另一种选择十年前的孙正义和基亚非关于基亚非大家都清楚 在14到15年他们大举买入了茅台并且收获了极大的一个上涨孙正义的话是我上周看的这个视频 坦率地讲这个视频我这个周末我看了十几二十多遍我越看越唏嘘我先把这个视频给大家听一下大家都知道在上一周孙正义和黄仁勋针对英伟达的股票他们做回顾的时候爆头痛哭Ok, let me tell you what Mazda saidAre you guys ready?So Mazda ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 【宏观快评】 大省时隔一年重回预算外扩张 ——10 月财政数据点评 | --- | --- | --- | |-------|----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

Policy and Market Outlook - The policy shift focuses on monetary and fiscal easing to counter debt and price deflation risks, with significant measures including a 10 trillion yuan debt resolution plan[1] - Future policy tools may include central bank rate cuts, QE expansion, and central government debt issuance, with key announcements expected at the December economic work conference and March NPC meetings[1] - The market is expected to experience financial asset reflation first, followed by real asset reflation, driven by monetary easing and fiscal stimulus[2] Market Phases and Investment Strategies - The first phase of the bull market will benefit from financial reflation, favoring small-cap growth stocks, high valuation, and high-growth sectors, particularly in TMT and military-industrial themes[3] - The second phase will see a return of value and dividend stocks, driven by economic recovery and real asset reflation, with focus on consumer staples, cyclical resources, and low-volatility dividend sectors[4] - The market is expected to be driven by incremental funds, with retail investors leveraging social media and algorithms to participate, while institutional investors focus on stable value and high-growth opportunities[5] Historical Comparisons and Market Dynamics - The current market dynamics resemble the 2014-2015 liquidity-driven asset price surge, with monetary easing preceding fiscal stimulus and real economic recovery[90] - The 1999 "519" market rally serves as a historical parallel, where financial reflation smoothly transitioned to real asset reflation, leading to a strong economic rebound[100] Market Valuation and Upside Potential - Institutional investors see limited upside (5% neutral, 27% optimistic) based on PE-EPS models, while retail investors perceive stocks as undervalued relative to excess savings and M2 growth[114] - Potential market upside includes a 9% neutral and 21% optimistic scenario from excess savings entering the stock market, and a 3% neutral and 8% optimistic scenario from M2-driven price effects[118][128]

证 券 研 究 报 告 能源化工行业 2025 年度投资策略 推荐（维持） 新疆、新材料、新世界 能源化工 2025 年度策略我们提出新的关键词"新疆、新材料、新世界"。 24 年以来，中美库存周期错位和国内地产下行继续压制化工品的价格表现。 PB-ROE 双底形成后，突破口来自供给的反抗，而趋势性的机会来自需求的新 大陆，我们在 24 年年中策略中提到的"供给的反抗，需求的新大陆"逻辑依 然有效。考虑到大类品种的供给过剩依然严重，我们更加关注供给出清尤其是 海外产能退出后给小品类化工品带来的格局优化，同时也考虑到市场流动性改 善后风险偏好的提升，我们把"供给的反抗"进一步明确为本年度策略中"新 材料"一词。对于亚非拉地区需求的趋势性提升，我们观点不变，依然保留"新 大陆（新世界）"一词，逻辑不再赘述。此外本次年度策略 ，我们提出"新疆" 做首要关键词，并在文中予以重点展开。"新疆、新材料、新世界"三个主题 在内核上延续了 24 年年度策略中"传统化工求变三路——向上游走，向海外 走，向深处走"的思考，并且更加明确。 关注对能源化工行业非常重要的两个转向：1）西部大开发。从主动上描述， 这是东部沿海长期高强度 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 【宏观专题】 解开三螺旋——宏观 2025 年度策略报告 前言：自 2022 年年底疫情放开以来，宏观主要矛盾在持续切换中。2022 年年 底，中央经济工作会议对经济的定调是"需求收缩、供给冲击、预期转弱三重 压力"。2023 年年底，定调有微调"有效需求不足、部分行业产能过剩、社会 预期偏弱、风险隐患仍然较多"。2024 年 9 月 26 日政治局会议指出，"当前经 济运行出现一些新的情况和问题"。此处，未明确指出何为"新的问题"。 结合三季度消费、地产、地方财政、股市等问题进一步凸显，以及若干权威讲 话，我们认为当前主要矛盾或可总结为——"经济下行、财富缩水、预期疲软"， 即以物价、房价与股价代表的经济、财富、预期三大市场的螺旋交织问题，我 们称之为"三螺旋"。"三螺旋"之下，"解开"的思路需要"系统施策"，2025 年的经济与资产配置将在很大程度上取决于这一进程顺利与否。 一、深刻理解当下的宏观矛盾："三螺旋"如何交织影响？ 首先，对于"三螺旋"的交织影响，我们做一定的简化。对于财富，核心关注 房价，其主要影响的是两个主体：居民、地产商与城投。对于预期，我们核心 关注 PPI 和 ...

Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for the banking sector in 2025 [2] Core Views - The banking sector is expected to achieve a new balance between volume and pricing in 2025, with slower growth in assets and liabilities, optimized structure, and weakened price constraints [2] - Credit growth in 2025 is expected to be slightly weaker than in 2024, with a projected new credit scale of 18-19 trillion yuan and a balance growth rate slowing to 7.0%-7.4% [2] - Deposit rates are expected to continue declining, posing challenges for small and medium-sized banks in growing high-quality liabilities [2] - The capital replenishment channels for high-quality banks are expected to become more streamlined, with reduced pressure on capital replenishment [2] - The net interest margin (NIM) is expected to face downward pressure in 2025, but the rate of decline will narrow [2] - The stability of the balance sheet is considered more important than the flexibility of the income statement, with credit costs expected to remain low [2] Credit Environment - Credit growth in 2024 has slowed, with a year-on-year growth rate of around 8% in October, down from 11% in June 2023 [41] - The structure of new credit in 2024 is dominated by corporate loans, with retail loans showing marginal improvement [42] - Industrial and infrastructure-related medium and long-term loans remain the main focus of corporate lending, while green, inclusive, and agricultural loans are growing rapidly [50] - In 2025, credit growth is expected to be slightly weaker than in 2024, but social financing growth is expected to be better due to government bond issuance [56] Bank Liabilities - Deposit rates are expected to continue declining, with large banks' deposit rates systematically falling below 1.6% [64] - Small and medium-sized banks face challenges in growing high-quality liabilities due to deposit migration to asset management products and liquidity stratification [69] - The core constraint on asset expansion remains weak effective demand, rather than the scale of liabilities [75] Capital Constraints - The implementation of new capital regulations and the potential expansion of advanced methods are expected to help high-quality banks save capital in the medium to long term [78] - The issuance of special treasury bonds to supplement the capital of major banks is expected to ease capital replenishment pressure in 2025 [79] Net Interest Margin (NIM) - The NIM is expected to face downward pressure in 2025, with a static impact of 12-13bps on listed banks' NIM [85] - The decline in NIM is expected to narrow compared to 2024, with banks focusing on optimizing retail credit and cost management to stabilize income [85] Risk Reassessment - The acceleration of debt resolution is expected to stabilize bank asset quality, with local government implicit debt effectively resolved [100] - The main risk factors in 2025 are expected to be stable corporate assets, with a focus on retail asset risks [104] Investment Strategy - The banking sector is expected to benefit from stable performance and dividends, with a focus on high-dividend banks and those with high retail asset ratios [4] - Regional banks are expected to benefit from local economic development and debt resolution, with potential for improved fundamentals [4]

证 券 研 究 报 告 证监会审核华创证券投资咨询业务资格批文号：证监许可（2009）1210 号 未经许可，禁止转载 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------|--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 食品饮料行业 2025 年度投资策略 推荐（维持） 阳光总在风雨后 食品饮料整体：底部确立、向上明确，24 年卸下包袱，25 年轻装上阵。9 月 底以来国家一系列宏观政策措施加快出台，扭转了市场对需求持续低迷、上市 企业业绩负向螺旋的悲观预期，且随着今年前三季度估值大幅回落，我们认为 板块底部已确立，边际改善方向已明确。当前时点展望明年，调味品、乳业、 啤酒、白酒等上市企业库存和报表风险在 24 年开始接连出清，25 年各子行业 有望陆续从库存出清到回补，规模效应有望驱动盈利预测下调周期进入到上调 周期。此外，与餐饮相关的 B 端供应链企业，由于无库存周期传导影响，与下 游餐饮需求恢复高度敏感，或将直接受益于餐饮消费券等服务消费宏观刺激政 策，相关企业在大幅调整后有望迎来低预期下的反转高弹性。 白酒：24 年估值见底回升，预计 25 年中行业预期见底。行业周期阶段看，我 们判断 25 年上半年均仍处于出清期，年中或迎来行业预期底，两大关键指标 一是茅台批价预期，二是头部酒企盈利预期。批价预期层面，行业明年仍处于 去库存阶段，预计普茅批价仍将下行探底，但考虑茅台渠道多元化及管理能力 提升 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 家电行业周报（20241111-20241115） 行业研究 家电 2024 年 11 月 18 日 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------|------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ...