Group 1 - The market is experiencing a high volatility phase driven by three main factors: profit-taking by funds, weakening economic data, and declining remaining liquidity. The trend is shifting towards large-cap stocks [1][10][12] - The current market environment reflects a "time for space" approach, lacking event catalysts for immediate pricing adjustments. The degree of industry differentiation reached a 10-year high of 69% on October 9, but has since narrowed to 53% [2][21][27] - Market transaction volume has significantly decreased since September, with the average daily trading volume dropping from approximately 3 trillion yuan to 2 trillion yuan, indicating a divergence between price increases and trading activity [3][19][30] Group 2 - The "anti-involution bull market" is characterized by a shift in valuation models, with a focus on sectors with low earnings bases. Industries such as steel, new energy, and light industry are highlighted for their cost-effectiveness [4][27][40] - Investment direction should focus on supply-tight cyclical industries, including non-ferrous metals, steel, coal, and aquaculture, as well as identifying new core assets among high-quality large-cap growth companies [5][28][29]

- The report includes multiple quantitative models for market timing, categorized into short-term, medium-term, and long-term models. Short-term models include the "Volume Model" (neutral for all broad-based indices), "Feature Institutional Model" (bullish), "Feature Volume Model" (bearish), and "Smart Algorithm Models" (bearish for CSI 300 and CSI 500 indices) [1][11][62][63]. Medium-term models include the "Limit-Up and Limit-Down Model" (neutral), "Up-Down Return Difference Model" (bullish), and "Calendar Effect Model" (neutral) [12][64]. Long-term models include the "Long-Term Momentum Model" (bullish) [13][65]. Comprehensive models such as "A-Share Comprehensive Weapon V3 Model" and "A-Share Comprehensive CSI 2000 Model" are bearish [14][65]. - The "Volume Model" is constructed based on trading volume data, aiming to capture short-term market sentiment [1][11]. The "Feature Institutional Model" leverages institutional trading patterns observed in the market [1][11]. The "Feature Volume Model" focuses on specific volume characteristics to predict market trends [1][11]. The "Smart Algorithm Models" utilize machine learning algorithms to analyze historical data and predict market movements [1][11][62][63]. The "Limit-Up and Limit-Down Model" analyzes the frequency and impact of limit-up and limit-down events [12][64]. The "Up-Down Return Difference Model" calculates the difference between upward and downward returns to assess market direction [12][64]. The "Calendar Effect Model" incorporates seasonal and calendar-based effects on market performance [12][64]. The "Long-Term Momentum Model" evaluates long-term price trends to predict future movements [13][65]. Comprehensive models combine signals from multiple individual models to provide an overall market outlook [14][65]. - Evaluation of these models indicates that short-term models show mixed signals, with some bullish and others bearish, reflecting market uncertainty [1][11][62][63]. Medium-term models are generally neutral to bullish, suggesting moderate optimism [12][64]. Long-term models are bullish, indicating strong confidence in sustained upward trends [13][65]. Comprehensive models are bearish, signaling caution in the overall market outlook [14][65]. - Backtesting results for the models are not explicitly detailed in the report, but the report mentions the performance of specific indices and their alignment with model predictions. For example, the CSI 300 index showed bearish signals from the "Smart Algorithm Model," aligning with its weekly decline of 1.08% [8][11][63]. Similarly, the "Up-Down Return Difference Model" showed bullish signals, consistent with positive medium-term outlooks [12][64]. - The report also includes quantitative factor-based strategies such as "Double-Bottom Pattern" and "Cup-and-Handle Pattern." The "Double-Bottom Pattern" achieved a weekly return of 4.09%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 4.61% [40][47]. The "Cup-and-Handle Pattern" achieved a weekly return of 0.6%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 1.12% [40][41]. These factors are constructed based on technical chart patterns and are evaluated for their relative performance against benchmark indices [40][41][47].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment recommendation for the automotive sector, anticipating a recovery in the market next year [1]. Core Insights - The automotive market is currently experiencing a downturn, with Q4 expectations falling short due to the impact of trade-in quotas. However, there is optimism for an upward revision in Q1 2026, suggesting that the sector may hit bottom sooner than expected. Despite the current sluggish trading environment, selective investment opportunities for next year are encouraged [1]. Data Tracking - In early November, the discount rate for vehicles increased to 10.0%, up by 0.4 percentage points month-on-month and 1.5 percentage points year-on-year. The average discount amount rose by 23,103 yuan, with significant fluctuations noted among major brands [3]. - In October, new energy vehicle deliveries saw significant growth, with BYD delivering 442,000 units (down 12.1% year-on-year but up 11.5% month-on-month), while other brands like Leap Motor and Xpeng reported substantial year-on-year increases [3][21]. - Traditional automakers also showed strong sales, with Geely's sales increasing by 35.0% year-on-year to 307,000 units in October [3][24]. Recommendations - For complete vehicles, the report recommends investing in Geely and BYD, highlighting Geely's upcoming product cycle and potential for significant profit increases in the next 6-9 months. The report also suggests considering Jianghuai Automobile due to its strong product cycle and recent stock price corrections [5]. - In the automotive parts sector, the report identifies AI and intelligent driving as key areas for growth, recommending companies like Horizon Robotics and Sensetime Technology. It also highlights opportunities in liquid cooling and robotics, suggesting investments in companies like Minth Group and Top Group [5]. - The heavy truck segment is noted for its strong performance in recent months, with recommendations for companies like China National Heavy Duty Truck Group and Weichai Power [5]. Industry News - In October, new energy vehicles accounted for over 50% of total new car sales for the first time, with production and sales figures for the year showing over 10% growth [8][31]. - The report mentions the launch of new models, including the IM LS9, which features advanced technology and significant performance metrics [31]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has set new requirements for new energy vehicle credit ratios for 2026 and 2027, indicating a regulatory push towards electric vehicles [31].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views In the second week of November, as the temperature dropped in the north, the scope of construction stoppages gradually expanded, leading to a slight weakening in the demand for cement and rebar. New home sales remained seasonally low year-on-year. In terms of inflation, the increase in food prices narrowed, and pork prices turned from rising to falling. In exports, the SCFI index weakened while the CCFI continued to rise, and the year-on-year and month-on-month growth rates of port transportation volume both narrowed. The dry bulk index was boosted by the increased winter coal storage purchases. In investment, with the expansion of construction stoppages in the north, cement prices declined, and the apparent demand for rebar and asphalt shipments weakened month-on-month, being lower than the seasonal average year-on-year, indicating the gradual emergence of the off-season effect. In the real estate sector, both new and second-hand home sales improved month-on-month. New home sales maintained a relatively low year-on-year negative growth, while the year-on-year decline in second-hand home sales narrowed and was better than the same period in 2023. For the bond market, the traditional off-season effect in November accelerated, and there was no "broad credit" inflection point in terms of physical work volume. The economic data for October verified that domestic demand needed further stimulation, and the "broad credit" impact of policy tools was temporarily limited. Seasonal factors and the pace of tool deployment might constrain the release of tool effects. The State Council executive meeting on November 14 emphasized the need to reasonably arrange project construction and fund allocation, actively leverage long-term loans and policy-based finance, and guide more private capital to participate, which might be a requirement for the "broad credit" effect of the tools. Attention should be paid to the verification of loan data from November to December [36]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs (1) Inflation-related: Food prices continued to rise slightly - Food price increases continued to narrow. From November 10 - 14, the average national wholesale price of pork decreased by 0.19% month-on-month, and the month-on-month increase in vegetable prices was 0.54%. The 200-index of agricultural product wholesale prices and the wholesale price index of basket products increased by 0.37% and 0.43% month-on-month respectively, with the increases narrowing [10]. (2) Import and export-related: The export container shipping index generally continued to rise - The CCFI continued to rise, while the SCFI weakened. This week, the CCFI index increased by 3.4% month-on-month, and the SCFI decreased by 2.9% month-on-month. The export container shipping market was generally stable this week, and the freight rates in the ocean shipping routes continued to diverge, with a slight decline in the SCFI. Among them, the transportation demand in the North American routes lacked support, and the spot booking prices weakened. The shipping rates from Shanghai Port to the West and East Coasts of the United States decreased by 17.6% and 8.7% respectively compared to last week [12]. - In terms of port transportation volume, from November 3 - 9, the container throughput and cargo throughput of ports increased by 1.4% and decreased by 4.3% month-on-month respectively. This week, the year-on-year increases were 6.5% and 4.2% respectively, with the month-on-month and year-on-year growth rates significantly narrowing compared to last week [12]. - The increases in the BDI and CDFI indexes expanded. This week, the BDI and CDFI indexes increased by 3.2% and 1.2% month-on-month respectively, with the increases expanding compared to the previous week. Among them, the iron ore import transportation market was sluggish, and the freight rates in the Capesize vessel market weakened. With the increase in winter coal storage purchases, the freight rates in the Panamax and Supramax vessel markets rose [12]. (3) Industry-related: The month-on-month changes in the operating rates were mixed - The increase in coal prices continued to expand. This week, the price of thermal coal (Q5500) at Qinhuangdao Port increased by 4.2% month-on-month, with the increase continuing to be higher than that of the previous week. In terms of demand, the daily coal consumption of power plants remained at an off-season level, and the pressure to replenish inventory was relatively small. The market mainly purchased imported coal and only maintained necessary purchases for high-priced coal. This week, the daily coal consumption of eight coastal provinces' power plants was 1.803 million tons, a decrease of 40,000 tons month-on-month. In terms of price, the supply in the production areas continued to tighten. Some coal mines completed their annual production tasks ahead of schedule, and with overproduction control and environmental inspections, the production capacity release was limited, leading to continuous increases in coal prices [15][17]. - The price of rebar turned from falling to stable, and the apparent demand weakened. The spot price of rebar (HRB400 20mm) increased by 0.2% month-on-month, turning from falling to rising. In terms of inventory, the social inventory of rebar decreased by 2.34% month-on-month this week, accelerating compared to the previous week, but the inventory was still at a high level year-on-year, with a large pressure to reduce inventory. As the demand for steel was in the off-season, downstream buyers maintained a just-in-time purchasing rhythm this week, and the apparent demand weakened slightly [17]. - The operating rate of asphalt declined marginally. This week, the operating rate of asphalt plants decreased by 0.7 percentage points month-on-month to 29.0%, a year-on-year decrease of 2.0%. As the temperature continued to drop in the northern regions, infrastructure projects were gradually winding down, and the rigid demand significantly contracted. Although there was still some construction support in the southern regions, the overall project increment was limited, and the market demand generally remained weak [17]. - The price of copper turned from falling to rising. This week, the average prices of Yangtze River non-ferrous copper and LME copper increased by 0.9% and 1.2% month-on-month respectively. Overseas, the disagreement within the Federal Reserve regarding interest rate cuts cooled the expectations of monetary easing, but the global supply shortage situation persisted, still supporting the copper price [20]. - The glass futures continued to weaken. This week, the market was dominated by a wait-and-see sentiment. Many manufacturers continued to lower prices to sell goods, the market transaction prices declined, and the production and sales decreased compared to the previous period. Fundamentally, the supply exceeded the demand, and there was still pressure to sell in many areas. This week, the market inventory turned from decreasing to increasing, and the glass price might still have room for further decline in the short term [20]. (4) Investment-related: Real estate sales improved month-on-month but remained low year-on-year - The cement price turned down month-on-month. This week, the weekly average of the cement price index decreased by 0.23% month-on-month. Recently, the demand in the concrete market was poor. As the market entered the traditional off-season, the temperature dropped in the north, and most projects in the Northeast and Northwest entered the construction stoppage stage, leading to an overall contraction in demand. In the North China region, project funds were tight, and the shipping rate remained low. The East China market was significantly differentiated, with insufficient demand support in major areas and weak price increases [24]. - New home sales turned from falling to rising month-on-month. From November 7 - 13, the transaction area of new homes in 30 cities was 1.581 million square meters, an increase of 0.7% month-on-month and a decrease of 31% year-on-year. The sales were marginally stable but still at the lowest level in the same period in the past five years [26]. - Second-hand home sales improved month-on-month, and the year-on-year negative growth narrowed. From last Friday to this Thursday, second-hand home sales increased by 5.5% month-on-month and decreased by 14.4% year-on-year. The sales improved marginally, and the transaction volume was between the same period in 2023 and 2024, with the year-on-year decline narrowing [26]. (5) Consumption: The sales of passenger cars turned negative in the first week of November - The sales momentum of new cars weakened marginally at the beginning of the month. According to the Passenger Car Association, from November 1 - 9, the retail sales of the national passenger car market were 4.15 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 19% compared to the same period in November last year and a 4% decrease compared to the same period last month. The high base formed by the continuous sales growth in the market in November last year affected this year's readings, but the sales still maintained a growth of about 7% compared to the same period in 2023 [29]. - The weekly average price of crude oil increased month-on-month. As of November 14, the prices of Brent crude oil and WTI crude oil increased by 1.2% and 0.6% month-on-month respectively, showing a trend of first falling and then rising within the week. In the first half of the week, the OPEC and EIA monthly reports showed relatively high supply pressure, and the increase in Middle Eastern crude oil supply suppressed the oil price. In the second half of the week, the less-than-expected production increase by OPEC and the uncertainty of Russian energy supply were beneficial to the oil price [29].

Group 1: Economic Performance Overview - The economic data for October highlights three temperature levels: strong, moderate, and weak[2] - The production service industry and equipment manufacturing showed strong performance, with the production index for the information industry growing by 13% and equipment manufacturing by 8%[4] - Essential consumption grew by 4.2% in October, surpassing the previous value of 3.4%, while cumulative growth for the first ten months was 4.4%, better than last year's 4.0%[19] Group 2: Investment and Construction Trends - Manufacturing investment saw a decline, with a year-on-year decrease of 6.7% in October, down from -1.9% previously, and a cumulative growth of 2.7% for the first ten months[22] - Infrastructure and real estate investments continued to decline, with real estate investment down by 23% in October compared to the previous month[44] - The overall growth rate for subsidy-related durable goods consumption dropped to -2.6% in October, down from 3.9%[7] Group 3: Policy Implications and Future Outlook - The government is expected to support technology innovation sectors where sentiment is better than economic performance, while consumption sectors may see further growth opportunities[2] - If economic growth deviates from annual targets, policies may flexibly increase support for subsidy-related consumption and construction chains[2]

Group 1 - The report emphasizes maintaining duration as the year-end approaches, with a focus on medium to long-term credit varieties, particularly 4-5 year products which show marginal improvement in cost-performance despite still low spread levels [2][10][12] - The current yield range for long-term credit bonds (5 years and above) rated AA+ and above is between 2.16% and 2.66%, indicating a certain level of yield cost-performance [3][10] - The report notes that funds have significantly increased their allocation to 5-year and above credit bonds, reflecting a trend towards extending duration for yield [3][10] Group 2 - The report highlights key policies and events, including Tianjin's measures to support high-quality development of REITs, which aim to enhance capital market services for the real economy [4][19] - The upcoming revision of the "Commercial Bank M&A Loan Management Measures" is expected to broaden the scope of applicable loans and optimize loan conditions, which could facilitate mergers and acquisitions [4][19][24] - The report mentions that the National Development and Reform Commission has recommended 105 infrastructure REITs projects to the CSRC, with 83 already issued, indicating a normalization in the issuance of infrastructure REITs [4][19][24] Group 3 - The report indicates that the credit bond market has seen a majority of yields decline, with financial bonds performing better, while credit spreads have shown divergence [6][10] - The issuance scale of credit bonds this week was 269.9 billion, a decrease of 20.5 billion from the previous week, with net financing also down [7][10] - The report notes a decrease in trading activity in both the interbank and exchange markets for credit bonds, suggesting a decline in market liquidity [7][10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment recommendation for the controllable nuclear fusion industry, indicating an upward trend in capital expenditure and technological breakthroughs [1]. Core Insights - The controllable nuclear fusion industry is experiencing accelerated capital expenditure, with significant recent developments in financing and technological advancements [1][8]. - The report highlights that the domestic nuclear fusion projects are expected to see a peak in bidding and investment over the next 3 to 5 years, with an estimated total investment of 146.5 billion yuan [8][19]. Summary by Sections Capital Expenditure - On November 12, the Institute of Plasma Physics at the Chinese Academy of Sciences announced a new tender worth 1.3454 billion yuan, focusing on high-value areas such as fuel cycle and tritium recovery [1][8]. - In the first half of November, the total tender amount from the Institute and Fusion New Energy in Anhui reached 1.976 billion yuan, with five projects exceeding 200 million yuan [7][19]. Financing - On November 10, Xinneng Xuanguang completed a Pre-A round financing of several hundred million yuan, led by Ant Group, aimed at enhancing the performance of its in-construction devices and expanding its team [1][8]. Technological Breakthroughs - On November 6, the Southwest Institute of Nuclear Physics completed the final design review of the ITER Langmuir probe, marking a significant advancement in the development of key diagnostic systems for the ITER project [2][10]. Recommended Companies - The report continues to recommend Lianchuang Optoelectronics and Hezhu Intelligent, while suggesting to pay attention to Guoguang Electric [3]. - In the magnet segment, companies such as Western Superconducting, Yongding Co., and Jingda Co. are highlighted for their high value contribution [3][34]. - For structural components and others, the report recommends companies like Sichuan Electronics, Yingliu Co., and Wanyi Technology, with a suggestion to monitor Antai Technology [3][35].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the pharmaceutical sector, particularly focusing on innovative drugs and medical devices [53]. Core Views - The report emphasizes the transition of the domestic innovative drug industry from quantity logic to quality logic, highlighting the importance of differentiated products and internationalization by 2025 [9][10]. - It identifies significant growth potential in the medical device sector, particularly in imaging equipment and home medical devices, driven by policy support and market demand [9][10]. - The report suggests that the innovative chain (CXO + life science services) is entering a recovery phase, with increasing investment and demand expected [9][10]. - The pharmaceutical industry is anticipated to enter a new growth cycle, particularly in specialty APIs and formulations, with a focus on companies like Tonghua Dongbao and Huahai Pharmaceutical [9][10]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The report notes a 3.29% increase in the CITIC pharmaceutical index, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 4.37 percentage points, ranking third among 30 primary industries [6]. Innovative Drugs - The report highlights the expected increase in the proportion of innovative drug revenue for companies like Xinlitai, projecting that by 2025, innovative drugs will account for over 50% of their revenue [16][17]. - It lists key companies to watch, including BeiGene, Innovent, and Junshi Biosciences, which are expected to lead in product differentiation and international expansion [9][10]. Medical Devices - The report identifies a recovery in bidding volumes for imaging equipment and a growing market for home medical devices, with companies like Mindray and United Imaging being key players [9][10]. - It emphasizes the acceleration of domestic substitution in the medical device market, particularly in high-value consumables and IVD products [55][58]. Innovative Chain (CXO + Life Science Services) - The report indicates a potential recovery in overseas investment and a bottoming out of domestic investment in the innovative chain, with a focus on high-profit elasticity for companies entering the return phase [9][10]. Traditional Chinese Medicine - The report suggests that the market for essential medicines will see significant growth, particularly for unique products, and highlights companies like Kunming Pharmaceutical and Kangyuan Pharmaceutical as key players [11][68]. Pharmacy Sector - The report expresses optimism about the pharmacy sector, driven by the acceleration of prescription outflow and an improving competitive landscape, recommending companies like YaoXing and YiFeng Pharmacy [65]. Medical Services - The report highlights the potential for private medical services to enhance competitiveness due to anti-corruption measures and the expansion of commercial insurance, recommending companies like GuoShengTang and AiEr Eye Hospital [67].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - On November 14, the convertible bond market contracted in volume and declined, with compressed valuations. The CSI Convertible Bond Index decreased by 0.58% compared to the previous day, and the trading sentiment in the convertible bond market weakened. The total trading volume of the convertible bond market was 71.351 billion yuan, a 9.71% decrease from the previous day [1]. - The convertible bond price center declined, and the proportion of high - priced bonds decreased. The overall weighted average closing price of convertible bonds was 135.02 yuan, a 0.64% decrease from the previous day. The valuation was compressed, with the 100 - yuan par - value fitted conversion premium rate at 31.82%, a 0.82 - percentage - point decrease from the previous day [2]. - In the stock market, more than half of the underlying stock industry indices declined. Among A - share markets, the top three industries with the largest declines were electronics (-3.09%), communication (-2.46%), and media (-2.16%); the top three industries with the largest increases were real estate (+0.39%), banking (+0.26%), and pharmaceutical biology (+0.17%). In the convertible bond market, 23 industries declined, with the top three industries with the largest declines being communication (-2.52%), national defense and military industry (-1.85%), and automobile (-1.66%); the top three industries with the largest increases were steel (+2.31%), environmental protection (+0.82%), and public utilities (+0.27%) [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Overview - **Index Performance**: The CSI Convertible Bond Index decreased by 0.58% compared to the previous day, the Shanghai Composite Index decreased by 0.97%, the Shenzhen Component Index decreased by 1.93%, the ChiNext Index decreased by 2.82%, the SSE 50 Index decreased by 1.15%, and the CSI 1000 Index decreased by 1.16% [1]. - **Market Style**: Large - cap value stocks were relatively dominant. Large - cap growth stocks decreased by 2.20%, large - cap value stocks decreased by 0.55%, mid - cap growth stocks decreased by 1.48%, mid - cap value stocks decreased by 1.19%, small - cap growth stocks decreased by 1.45%, and small - cap value stocks decreased by 0.85% [1]. - **Fund Performance**: The trading sentiment in the convertible bond market weakened. The trading volume of the convertible bond market was 71.351 billion yuan, a 9.71% decrease from the previous day; the total trading volume of the Wind All - A Index was 1980.382 billion yuan, a 4.13% decrease from the previous day; the net outflow of the main funds in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 62.011 billion yuan, and the yield of the 10 - year treasury bond increased by 0.14 bp to 1.81% [1]. Convertible Bond Price and Valuation - **Convertible Bond Price**: The overall weighted average closing price of convertible bonds was 135.02 yuan, a 0.64% decrease from the previous day. The closing price of equity - biased convertible bonds was 178.79 yuan, a 1.27% decrease; the closing price of bond - biased convertible bonds was 121.53 yuan, a 0.10% decrease; the closing price of balanced convertible bonds was 130.91 yuan, a 0.31% decrease. The proportion of high - priced bonds above 130 yuan was 62.34%, a 0.75 - percentage - point decrease from the previous day. The price median was 133.72 yuan, a 0.93% decrease from the previous day [2]. - **Convertible Bond Valuation**: The valuation was compressed. The 100 - yuan par - value fitted conversion premium rate was 31.82%, a 0.82 - percentage - point decrease from the previous day; the overall weighted par value was 104.59 yuan, a 0.52% decrease from the previous day. The premium rate of equity - biased convertible bonds was 10.60%, a 1.34 - percentage - point decrease; the premium rate of bond - biased convertible bonds was 84.51%, a 0.54 - percentage - point decrease; the premium rate of balanced convertible bonds was 22.78%, a 0.24 - percentage - point decrease [2]. Industry Performance - **Underlying Stock Industry**: Among A - share markets, the top three industries with the largest declines were electronics (-3.09%), communication (-2.46%), and media (-2.16%); the top three industries with the largest increases were real estate (+0.39%), banking (+0.26%), and pharmaceutical biology (+0.17%) [3]. - **Convertible Bond Industry**: In the convertible bond market, 23 industries declined, with the top three industries with the largest declines being communication (-2.52%), national defense and military industry (-1.85%), and automobile (-1.66%); the top three industries with the largest increases were steel (+2.31%), environmental protection (+0.82%), and public utilities (+0.27%) [3]. - **Key Indicators by Sector**: - Closing price: The large - cycle sector decreased by 0.15%, the manufacturing sector decreased by 1.11%, the technology sector decreased by 1.59%, the large - consumption sector decreased by 0.64%, and the large - finance sector decreased by 0.66% [3]. - Conversion premium rate: The large - cycle sector decreased by 0.57 percentage points, the manufacturing sector decreased by 0.37 percentage points, the technology sector increased by 0.3 percentage points, the large - consumption sector decreased by 0.29 percentage points, and the large - finance sector increased by 0.051 percentage points [3]. - Conversion value: The large - cycle sector increased by 0.51%, the manufacturing sector decreased by 0.87%, the technology sector decreased by 1.74%, the large - consumption sector decreased by 0.64%, and the large - finance sector decreased by 1.01% [3]. - Pure bond premium rate: The large - cycle sector decreased by 0.23 percentage points, the manufacturing sector decreased by 1.7 percentage points, the technology sector decreased by 2.3 percentage points, the large - consumption sector decreased by 0.82 percentage points, and the large - finance sector decreased by 0.79 percentage points [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the production rush at the end of the third quarter in October, the economy weakened again at the beginning of the quarter. Coupled with the high base in the service industry, the estimated monthly GDP was around 4.5%, a relatively low level since the beginning of the year [10]. - The incremental impact of the "two 50 billion" in October has not yet appeared, including less - than - expected credit and infrastructure investment effects [12]. - The "broad credit" verification from November to December is still an important observation clue for the fundamentals. The effects of this round of policy tools are expected to continue until the first quarter of 2026 [17]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 "Broad Credit" Effect May Appear with a Lag - **GDP Estimation**: In October, affected by factors such as the end of the peak season in the service industry, weak exports, and more holidays, the GDP dropped to about 4.5%, a low level since the beginning of the year [10]. - **Influence of "Two 50 Billion"**: In October, the incremental impact of the "two 50 billion" was not evident. The new medium - and long - term corporate loans decreased year - on - year, and infrastructure investment was weaker than the seasonal average, with a lower leveraging effect than in 2022 [12]. - **Reasons**: Policy tools were gradually launched from the end of September to the end of October, and the capital effects may not be fully reflected. There may be an overlap between policy - supported projects and special bond projects, and the project scope has expanded to light - asset industries, resulting in a weaker loan - leveraging effect [17]. - **Outlook**: The "broad credit" verification from November to December is crucial. Considering the high base formed by the strong "good start" this year, macro - policies in 2026 may need to be implemented earlier, and the effects of this round of tools are expected to last until the first quarter of 2026 [17]. 3.2 October Data Interpretation: Mild Slowdown of Economic Momentum at the Beginning of the Quarter 3.2.1 Infrastructure - **Investment Situation**: From January to October, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) was - 0.1%, and the full - scale infrastructure investment was + 1.5%, showing a further decline. In October, the year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure investment excluding electricity was - 8.9%, and the full - scale infrastructure was - 12.1%, accelerating the decline [18]. - **Future Outlook**: Although 50 billion of policy - based financial instruments were fully invested by the end of October, and the new orders and business activity expectations in the construction industry PMI improved, the actual workload may be postponed, and the investment data from November to December need to be verified [18]. 3.2.2 Real Estate - **Investment and Sales**: From January to October, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of real estate investment was - 14.7%, and the single - month year - on - year was - 23.0%. The decline in construction narrowed, while the decline in new construction and completion expanded. In October, the year - on - year decline in residential sales area was - 19.6%, and the decline had been expanding for three consecutive months. The month - on - month decline in new and second - hand residential sales prices also expanded [23]. - **Future Outlook**: Attention should be paid to the probability of further adjustment of purchase - restriction policies in first - tier cities and the tone of the Central Economic Work Conference at the end of the year [23]. 3.2.3 Manufacturing Investment - **Investment Performance**: In October, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of manufacturing investment was + 2.7%, and the single - month year - on - year was - 6.7%, with the decline expanding by 4.8 percentage points. Except for the automobile manufacturing and equipment transportation manufacturing industries, the single - month year - on - year growth rates of other industries turned negative [27]. - **Reasons and Outlook**: Due to the high base formed by the concentrated implementation of the equipment renewal policy from October to the end of last year and the bottom - up recovery of corporate profits and capacity control, manufacturing investment may continue to be in an adjustment period in the short term [27]. 3.2.4 Consumption - **Overall Situation**: In October, the year - on - year growth rate of social retail sales was + 2.9%, a slight decline from the previous month. The month - on - month seasonally adjusted growth rate recovered to + 0.16%, a relatively weak seasonal level [31]. - **Sub - items**: In terms of catering, the year - on - year growth rate was + 3.8%, and the month - on - month growth rate was + 15.3%, better than the average of the past three years. In terms of commodity retail, the year - on - year growth rate of above - quota commodity retail was + 1.4%, a decrease of 1.3 percentage points from September. Most subsidized categories showed a decline, while non - subsidized categories such as gold and silver jewelry performed well. The year - on - year growth rate of online commodity retail slowed down [36]. 3.2.5 Industry - **Production Situation**: In October, the year - on - year growth rate of industrial production was + 4.9%, and the month - on - month seasonally adjusted growth rate was + 0.17%, a seasonal decline and a relatively weak level since 2019. The decline in exports and the season - beginning effect dragged down manufacturing production [38]. - **Future Outlook**: In November, with the disappearance of holiday disturbances and the release of policy funds, industrial production may experience seasonal recovery [41].