债券研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【债券日报】 转债市场日度跟踪 20250911 市场概况：今日转债跟随正股上涨，估值环比抬升 指数表现：中证转债指数环比上涨 1.23%、上证综指环比上涨 1.65%、深证成 指环比上涨 3.36%、创业板指环比上涨 5.15%、上证 50 指数环比上涨 1.48%、 中证 1000 指数环比上涨 2.35%。 市场风格：大盘成长相对占优。大盘成长环比上涨 3.28%、大盘价值环比上涨 0.75%、中盘成长环比上涨 2.11%、中盘价值环比上涨 1.19%、小盘成长环比上 涨 2.70%、小盘价值环比上涨 1.33%。 资金表现：转债市场成交情绪升温。可转债市场成交额为 768.71 亿元，环比 增长 6.11%；万得全 A 总成交额为 24645.93 亿元，环比增长 22.99%；沪深两 市主力净流入 103.09 亿元，十年国债收益率环比降低 2.49bp 至 1.87%。 转债价格：转债中枢提升，高价券占比提升。转债整体收盘价加权平均值为 131.22 元，环比昨日上升 1.22%。其中偏股型转债的收盘价为 170.61 元，环比 上升 0.18%；偏债型转债的收盘 ...

Banking Wealth Management Products - A total of 1,241 new wealth management products were launched from August 23 to September 5, 2025, with an average performance benchmark of 2.50%[11] - The proportion of fixed-income products slightly decreased from 98.36% to 97.74%[11] - Wealth management companies issued 900 products, accounting for 72.52% of the total, with an average performance benchmark of 2.54%[11] Fund Products - 80 new public funds were established, with a total issuance scale of 557.78 billion units, a 67.71% increase from the previous period[24] - Stock funds accounted for 49.29% of the new issuance scale, with 52 new funds totaling 274.94 billion units[25] - Mixed funds saw a significant increase, with 16 new funds totaling 175.03 billion units, a 170.20% increase[25] Insurance Products - 317 new insurance products were launched, representing a 268.60% increase compared to the previous period[3] - Life insurance products accounted for 193 new issuances, up 232.76% from 58 in the previous period[3] - Annuity insurance saw 124 new products, a 342.86% increase from 24 in the previous period[3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Tongkun Co., Ltd. (601233) [1] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 44.158 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 8.41%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.097 billion yuan, an increase of 2.93% year-on-year [1] - In Q2 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 24.738 billion yuan, down 8.73% year-on-year but up 27.38% quarter-on-quarter, with a net profit of 486 million yuan, a slight increase of 0.04% year-on-year but a decrease of 20.54% quarter-on-quarter [1] - The long filament production capacity is fully utilized, with an operating rate of 96.3% in Q2 2025, and sales volume increased by 5% year-on-year and 38.2% quarter-on-quarter [7] - The report highlights that the supply-demand dynamics in the long filament industry are continuously improving, with expectations for profit margins to rise in the long term [7] Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2024 is projected at 101.307 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 22.6%, while for 2025, it is expected to decrease to 97.086 billion yuan, reflecting a decline of 4.2% [3] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to grow significantly from 1.202 billion yuan in 2024 to 2.167 billion yuan in 2025, representing a growth rate of 80.3% [3] - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to increase from 0.50 yuan in 2024 to 0.90 yuan in 2025, with a corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 16 times [3] Market Position and Valuation - The company is positioned as a leader in the long filament industry, with a total production capacity of 13.5 million tons for polyester filament and 10.2 million tons for PTA [7] - The target price for the stock is set at 18.9 yuan, with the current price at 14.62 yuan, indicating a potential upside [3] - The report suggests that the stock price does not fully reflect the profitability potential of the petrochemical segment, which is significantly undervalued [7]

亿田智能（300911）2025 年半年报点评 推荐（维持） 盈利能力短期承压，算力业务有望打开新局面 事项： ❖ 亿田智能发布 2025 年半年报，公司 2025H1 实现营收 1.7 亿元，YoY-49.1%； 实现归母净利润-0.7 亿元，YoY-507.0%。经折算，公司 2025Q2 单季度营收 1.2 亿元，YoY-45.9%；实现归母净利润-0.3 亿元，YoY-321.9%。 评论： [主要财务指标 ReportFinancialIndex] 证 券 研 究 报 告 | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万) | 703 | 584 | 594 | 658 | | 同比增速(%) | -42.7% | -16.9% | 1.8% | 10.7% | | 归母净利润(百万) | 27 | 28 | 40 | 59 | | 同比增速(%) | -85.2% | 3.9% | 43.7% | 48.1% | | 每股盈利(元) | 0.15 | 0.15 | 0.22 | 0.32 | ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 小熊电器（002959）2025 年中报点评 推荐（维持） 产品结构优化，盈利能力修复明显 目标价：69.5 元 事项： ❖ 公司发布 2025 年中报，25H1 公司实现营收 25.4 亿元，YoY+18.9%；实现归 母净利润 2.1 亿元，YoY+27.3%。经折算，公司 25Q2 实现营收 12.1 亿元， YoY+29.6%；实现归母净利润 0.75 亿元，YoY+641.5%。 评论： [主要财务指标 ReportFinancialIndex] 公司基本数据 | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万) | 4,758 | 5,433 | 5,905 | 6,307 | | 同比增速(%) | 1.0% | 14.2% | 8.7% | 6.8% | | 归母净利润(百万) | 288 | 376 | 442 | 463 | | 同比增速(%) | -35.4% | 30.8% | 17.3% | 4.8% | | 每股盈利(元) | 1.83 | 2.40 | ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 【债券日报】 转债市场日度跟踪 20250910 市场概况：今日转债表现偏弱，估值环比压缩 指数表现：中证转债指数环比下降 0.63%、上证综指环比上涨 0.13%、深证成 指环比上涨 0.38%、创业板指环比上涨 1.27%、上证 50 指数环比上涨 0.37%、 中证 1000 指数环比上涨 0.06%。 市场风格：大盘成长相对占优。大盘成长环比上涨 0.49%、大盘价值环比下降 0.10%、中盘成长环比下降 0.79%、中盘价值环比下降 0.65%、小盘成长环比 下降 0.03%、小盘价值环比下降 0.51%。 资金表现：转债市场成交情绪减弱。可转债市场成交额为 724.47 亿元，环比 减少 1.82%；万得全 A 总成交额为 20039.52 亿元，环比减少 6.88%；沪深两 市主力净流出 12.94 亿元，十年国债收益率环比上升 3.51bp 至 1.90%。 转债价格：转债中枢下降，高价券占比下降。转债整体收盘价加权平均值为 129.71 元，环比昨日下降 0.64%。其中偏股型转债的收盘价为 169.95 元，环比 下降 1.05%；偏债型转债的收盘价为 118.52 ...

Group 1: Institutional Investor Holdings - As of Q2 2025, the market value of A-share institutional investors' holdings increased to 18.7 trillion CNY, accounting for 20.6% of the total market, up 0.2 percentage points from the end of 2024[4] - Public funds hold 6.0 trillion CNY (6.7%); foreign capital holds 3.1 trillion CNY (3.4%); private equity holds 4.1 trillion CNY (4.5%); and insurance companies hold 3.1 trillion CNY (3.4%)[4] - The stock investment ratio of insurance institutions reached 8.8%, close to historical highs, driven by increased premium income and expanded risk from interest rate spreads[8] Group 2: Fund Types and Trends - The scale of active public funds reached 2.6 trillion CNY, while passive funds reached 3.4 trillion CNY, with stock ETFs at 3.0 trillion CNY, increasing from 14.7% at the end of 2021 to 50.2% currently[13] - Since June, the issuance of active equity public funds has been recovering, indicating potential growth in public fund holdings[13] - Private equity fund holdings reached 4.1 trillion CNY, with a 0.1 percentage point increase to 4.5% as of Q2 2025[18] Group 3: Individual Investor Activity - Individual investors' holdings reached 35.2 trillion CNY, up 1.6 trillion CNY from Q1 2025, accounting for 38.9% of the total market[23] - Margin trading balances surged to nearly 2.3 trillion CNY, a historical high, with margin trading volume accounting for 11.7% of total A-share trading volume[23] Group 4: Sector Preferences - Public funds favor growth sectors, heavily investing in electronics (16.4%) and pharmaceuticals (9.8%); private equity focuses on electronics (12.7%) and computers (10.6%)[25] - Insurance companies prioritize dividend value, with significant investments in banks (45.5%) and utilities (7.8%)[25] - Foreign capital balances growth and value, with QFII heavily investing in banks (46.7%) and electronics (12.3%)[25]

Core Insights - The report emphasizes that investment remains the main logic for performance differentiation in the insurance industry, with a focus on the transformation of dividend insurance and changes in liability costs expected to gain importance over time [8][9][10] Group 1: Performance Overview - In H1 2025, the net profit growth rates for major listed insurance companies varied significantly, with China Life at 6.9%, China Pacific at -8.8%, and New China Life at 33.5% [14] - The average new business value (NBV) for major life insurance companies showed a strong growth trend, with China Life at 20.3% and New China Life at 58.4% [14] - The overall premium growth for property insurance was 5.1%, with notable differences in growth rates among companies, particularly in non-auto insurance [10][14] Group 2: Investment Strategies - Listed insurance companies have increased their allocation to equities, with a notable rise in stock proportions across most firms, while bond allocations have shown a mixed trend [19][20] - The net investment yield for major insurers has declined year-on-year, primarily due to the downward trend in long-term interest rates, with China Life at 2.8% and China Pacific at 1.7% [15][16] - The total investment yield for New China Life reached 5.9%, reflecting a 1.1 percentage point increase year-on-year, while China Life's total investment yield decreased by 0.3 percentage points to 3.3% [16] Group 3: Liability and Cost Management - The average new business cost for life insurance companies decreased by 65 basis points year-on-year, indicating improved cost efficiency [10][9] - The transformation of dividend insurance is beginning to show results, with a significant increase in the proportion of dividend insurance in new business for several major insurers [9][10] - The report suggests that the liability cost is expected to continue declining due to regulatory benefits and dynamic adjustments in preset interest rates [9][10] Group 4: Company Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on China Pacific, China Life, and China Insurance for investment, with specific suggestions for New China Life if the equity market continues to outperform expectations [2][3] - The report highlights that the performance of listed insurance companies is closely tied to the trends in the equity market, with a significant impact on net profits from fluctuations in equity asset values [9][10]

行业研究 非银行金融 2025 年 09 月 10 日 证 券 研 究 报 告 金融资金面跟踪：量化周报（2025/09/01~2025/09/05） 推荐（维持） 贴水回升明显，量化超额预计回升 | 华创证券研究所 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师：徐康 | 证券分析师：刘潇伟 | 联系人：杜婉桢 | 联系人：崔祎晴 | | 电话：021-20572556 | 邮箱：liuxiaowei@hcyjs.com | 邮箱：duwanzhen@hcyjs.com | 邮箱：cuiyiqing@hcyjs.com | | 邮箱：xukang@hcyjs.com | 执业编号：S0360525020001 | | | | 执业编号：S0360518060005 | | | | 0825~0829 样本量化私募收益及超额如下：1）300 增强策略周/月/年初以来平均收益 分别为+1.5%/+6.7%/+18.6%，周/月/年初以来平均超额分别为-1.3%/-2.3%/+2.7%；2）500 增强策略周/月/年初以来平均收益分别为+1.3%/+9.8%/+30.9%，周/ ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expectation of outperforming the benchmark index by over 20% in the next six months [4][20]. Core Views - The company reported significant growth in net profit for Q2, with a year-on-year increase of 22.24% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 31.44%. The long-term supply-demand dynamics for polyester filament are expected to remain favorable [1][9]. - The company achieved a revenue of 33.491 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 7.1%, and a net profit of 709 million yuan, up 17.28% year-on-year [1][9]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue and Profitability**: In Q2, the company generated revenue of 18.934 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.57% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 30.06%. The gross profit margin was 6.35%, and the net profit margin was 2.13% [1]. - **Future Projections**: The forecast for 2025-2027 indicates a net profit of 14.22 billion yuan, 19.51 billion yuan, and 23.14 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.93 yuan, 1.28 yuan, and 1.52 yuan [3][10]. - **Valuation Metrics**: The current market capitalization is approximately 242.72 billion yuan, with a projected PE ratio of 17 for 2025, 12 for 2026, and 10 for 2027 [5][10]. Market Position and Strategy - The company holds a market share of over 15% in the polyester filament industry, with a total production capacity of 8.45 million tons. The company is also expanding its PTA production capacity, expected to exceed 10 million tons by the end of 2025 [9][10]. - The report highlights that a price increase of 100 yuan per ton in filament could enhance the company's profit by approximately 748 million yuan [9]. Target Price - The target price for the company's stock is set at 19.20 yuan, based on a valuation of 15 times the projected PE for 2026 [4][10].