证 券 研 究 报 告 事项： ❖ 公司发布 25 年三季报，25Q1-3，营业收入 31.27 亿元（-7.48%），归母净利润 8.60 亿元（-10.11%），扣非净利润 8.15 亿元（-12.36%）。25Q3，营业收入 10.67 亿元（-9.04%），归母净利润 2.89 亿元(-14.30%)，扣非净利润 2.69 亿元(- 18.82%)。 评论： [主要财务指标 ReportFinancialIndex] | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万) | 4,471 | 4,235 | 4,675 | 5,386 | | 同比增速(%) | 0.6% | -5.3% | 10.4% | 15.2% | | 归母净利润(百万) | 1,194 | 1,177 | 1,370 | 1,590 | | 同比增速(%) | -1.9% | -1.5% | 16.4% | 16.1% | | 每股盈利(元) | 2.09 | 2.06 | 2.40 | 2.78 | | 市盈率(倍) | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the company with a target price of 50.2 yuan [2][8]. Core Insights - The company reported a total revenue of 3.67 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 34.59%. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 167.73% to 2.152 billion yuan, and the net profit excluding non-recurring items rose by 6.7% to 818 million yuan [2][4]. - The decline in revenue is attributed to changes in the scope of consolidation, as the data from Tianjin Zhongxin Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. is no longer included this year [2]. - The company’s core products are expected to see significant growth, particularly in the industrial sector, with notable sales increases in key products [8]. Financial Performance Summary - For Q3 2025, the company achieved a single-quarter revenue of 1.019 billion yuan, down 38.08% year-on-year, while the net profit for the quarter was 225 million yuan, up 53.66% year-on-year [2]. - The gross profit margin for Q3 2025 was reported at 75.8%, an increase of 29.2 percentage points year-on-year, and the net profit margin was 21.9%, up 13.3 percentage points year-on-year [8]. - The company’s sales expense ratio increased to 38.6%, while the management expense ratio was 8.3% and the R&D expense ratio was 2.9% [8]. Future Earnings Projections - The report forecasts the company's earnings for 2025 to be 2.24 billion yuan, with subsequent projections of 1.11 billion yuan for 2026 and 1.20 billion yuan for 2027, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 0.5%, a decline of 50.7%, and an increase of 8.8% respectively [8][9]. - The estimated earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is projected at 2.91 yuan, with a P/E ratio of 16 times [4][9]. Dividend Policy - The company announced a dividend plan for the first three quarters of 2025, proposing a cash dividend of 24.50 yuan per 10 shares (before tax), totaling 1.887 billion yuan, with a payout ratio of 87.67% [8].

证 券 研 究 报 告 公司发布 25 年三季报。25Q1-3，营业收入 69.78 亿元（-6.00%），归母净利润 4.34 亿元（-29.61%），扣非净利润 3.70 亿元（-38.98%）。25Q3，营业收入 21.88 亿元（-2.20%），归母净利润 0.49 亿元（-63.39%），扣非净利润 0.38 亿元（- 71.77%）。 评论： [ReportFinancialIndex] 主要财务指标 | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万) | 10,021 | 9,660 | 10,651 | 11,733 | | 同比增速(%) | 0.1% | -3.6% | 10.3% | 10.2% | | 归母净利润(百万) | 692 | 702 | 817 | 904 | | 同比增速(%) | 5.8% | 1.5% | 16.3% | 10.7% | | 每股盈利(元) | 1.14 | 1.16 | 1.35 | 1.49 | | 市盈率(倍) | 13 | 13 | 11 ...

公司研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 Q3 业绩加速上行，发布新一轮员工激励计划 目标价：57 元 事项： 公司发布 25 年三季报，25Q1-3，营业收入 4.48 亿元（+40.47%），归母净利润 1.36 亿元（+40.03%），扣非净利润 1.33 亿元（+49.53%）。25Q3，营业收入 1.82 亿元（+85.26%），归母净利润 0.62 亿元(+130.72%)，扣非净利润 0.61 亿元( +148.40%)。 评论： [ReportFinancialIndex] 主要财务指标 | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万) | 443 | 601 | 721 | 848 | | 同比增速(%) | -5.9% | 35.8% | 19.9% | 17.7% | | 归母净利润(百万) | 136 | 184 | 228 | 280 | | 同比增速(%) | -7.1% | 36.1% | 23.5% | 23.2% | | 每股盈利(元) | 1.13 | 1.54 | 1.9 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The year - end bond market rally can still be expected, but the magnitude should be rationally viewed. Bank, insurance, and wealth - management funds still have bond - allocation needs, protecting the market. However, the rate - cut expectation is weaker than in the past two years, so the rally may be limited [5][7][109]. - Currently, the three factors affecting bond - market fluctuations are risk preference, fund sales regulations, and year - end rally. As the negative impacts of risk preference and fee regulations are weakening, the risk of yield rising above the previous high is controllable. Before the implementation of the fee regulations, the bond market may fluctuate narrowly around 1.8%, and a potential decline in yield may occur later [5][7][109]. - Structurally, there is room to explore the spread of 3 - 5y policy - financial bonds. Attention can be paid to 7y CDB bonds in the medium - term, and the 30 - 10y treasury bond term spread may continue to compress. The 30y treasury bond swap strategy can be considered, and 15 - 30y local bonds can be participated in after the November supply peak [5][7][109]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 10 - month Central Bank Balance Sheet and Custody Volume Interpretation - **2025 October Central Bank Balance Sheet Changes**: The central bank's balance - sheet size decreased from 47.14 trillion yuan to 47.06 trillion yuan. The main reduction item on the asset side was "claims on the government", and the main increase item on the liability side was "government deposits". The "other depository corporation deposits" decreased seasonally [12][13][22]. - **Impact of Central Bank Operations on Custody Volume in October 2025**: The net investment scale of innovative tools was close to the change in the custody - account balance. The main incremental bond type was local bonds, and treasury bonds shifted from reduction to increase [27]. 3.2 Leverage Ratio Driven by the carry - trade space, institutions' willingness to increase leverage marginally recovered. In October, the average monthly trading volume of repurchase increased, and the average leverage ratio of bond funds rose. It reached the highest level in early November and then declined due to tightened liquidity [30]. 3.3 By Institution - **Banks**: Big banks' bond - allocation speed slowed down, with both primary - and secondary - market bond - buying efforts decreasing. Rural commercial banks may still have bond - allocation needs as their deposit growth rate exceeds the loan growth rate [42][48][54]. - **Insurance**: In the context of a bullish equity market, the incremental bond investment of insurance companies declined. In Q3 2025, there was an inversion between the incremental bond investment and secondary - market bond - buying scale. However, in the future, there may still be bond - allocation demand for incremental funds [62][70]. - **General Funds**: The bond - allocation sentiment improved. At the end of the year, there may still be a tendency to front - run, but the intensity may weaken. The scale of bond funds increased, and wealth - management products had strong bond - allocation demand, which is beneficial for the year - end rally [72][80][83]. - **Foreign Capital**: The comprehensive return on investing in certificates of deposit decreased, and foreign capital maintained a net outflow, mainly reducing holdings of certificates of deposit and policy - financial bonds while increasing holdings of treasury bonds [84][91]. 3.4 By Bond Type In October, the incremental custody volume of the bond market rebounded, and certificates of deposit and government bonds were the main supporting items. The net financing scale of government bonds decreased, the supply of policy - financial bonds slightly increased, and the net financing of certificates of deposit increased significantly [92][99][102].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the express delivery industry, expecting the industry index to outperform the benchmark index by over 5% in the next 3-6 months [2][28]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes investment opportunities in the express delivery sector under the theme of "anti-involution," highlighting a verification period for revenue and performance elasticity. It recommends YTO Express and Shentong Express, which have recently been upgraded to "Strong Buy" due to their strong performance indicators and potential for significant earnings elasticity [3][6]. - The report also highlights J&T Express, which saw a 79% year-on-year increase in Southeast Asia parcel volume in Q3, benefiting from high regional demand and the "anti-involution" trend, which is expected to stabilize domestic market profitability [3][6]. - SF Express is viewed positively due to its accelerated operational strategies leading to increased revenue growth, with the highest parcel volume growth year-to-date. The report suggests that the company's free cash flow can be sustainably optimized, making it an attractive investment after recent stock price adjustments [3][6]. Summary by Sections Industry Data - In October, the express delivery industry achieved a parcel volume growth rate of 7.9%, completing 17.6 billion parcels, a year-on-year increase of 7.9%. Cumulatively, from January to October, the industry completed 162.68 billion parcels, up 16.1% year-on-year [6][8]. - The industry's revenue in October reached 131.67 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.7%, with cumulative revenue from January to October at 1,217.41 billion yuan, up 8.5% year-on-year. The average revenue per parcel in October was 7.48 yuan, down 3.0% year-on-year [6][8]. Company Performance - In October, SF Express led the industry with a year-on-year parcel volume growth of 26.3%, followed by YTO Express at 12.8%, while Shentong Express and Yunda Express experienced lower growth rates [6][8]. - SF Express also led in revenue growth for October, with a year-on-year increase of 13.7%, while Shentong Express and YTO Express followed with 11.8% and 9.0% respectively [6][8]. - The report notes that Shentong Express had the highest year-on-year increase in average revenue per parcel at 2.18 yuan, while SF Express saw a significant decline of 10.0% year-on-year to 13.18 yuan [6][8].

产业研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 理财产品跟踪报告 2025 年第 13 期（11 月 01 日-11 月 14 日） 基金市场新发降温，分红险重回主导 银行理财产品： 根据普益标准数据，本期（11 月 1 日至 11 月 14 日）理财市场新发理财产品 1167 只，较上一期（10 月 18 日-10 月 31 日）的 1130 只基本持平。产品结构 延续"固收为主、理财公司主导、中短期限集中、低门槛普及"的特征，结构 分化依然较强：按投资性质划分，固定收益类产品仍占绝对主导地位，占比高 达 97.17%（前值 97.88%）；按机构类型划分，理财公司仍为主流，本期发行产 品 850 只，占比 72.84%；按投资起点划分，依然是 1 元及以下占比最高，新 发产品总数达 755 只（占比 64.7%），其次是 1 千元-1 万元（含）263 只（占 比 22.54%）。反映出理财行业向低门槛、普惠化转型的深化。 基金产品： 根据 wind 数据，2025 年 11 月 1 日至 11 月 14 日，全市场新成立基金共计 65 只，合计募集规模达 406.73 亿元，平均单只基金募集规模为 6.26 亿元。这 ...

公司研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 凯莱英（002821）2025 年三季报点评 推荐（维持） 三季度业绩符合预期，新兴业务表现亮眼 目标价：120 元 事项： 近期，公司发布 25Q3 业绩。25 年前三季度公司实现收入 46.30 亿元（+11.82%）， 归母净利润 8.00 亿元（+12.66%），扣非归母净利润 7.28 亿元（+9.74%）。25Q3 公司实现收入 14.42 亿元（-0.09%），归母净利润 1.83 亿元（-13.46%），扣非 归母净利润 1.62 亿元（-24.75%）。 评论： [ReportFinancialIndex] 主要财务指标 | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万) | 5,805 | 6,629 | 7,731 | 8,951 | | 同比增速(%) | -25.8% | 14.2% | 16.6% | 15.8% | | 归母净利润(百万) | 949 | 1,177 | 1,448 | 1,758 | | 同比增速(%) | -58.2% ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for Ctrip Group-S (09961.HK) with a target price of 635 HKD, reflecting an expected upside of 12.3% from the current price of 564.50 HKD [2][4]. Core Insights - Ctrip Group reported a revenue of 18.37 billion HKD in Q3 2025, representing a year-over-year increase of 15.5%. The gross margin was 81.7%, down 0.7 percentage points year-over-year. Operating profit reached 5.57 billion HKD, up 11.3% year-over-year, while net profit surged to 19.89 billion HKD, a remarkable increase of 194.0% due to gains from the disposal of certain investments [2][4]. - The accommodation booking revenue exceeded expectations, amounting to 8.05 billion HKD, with a year-over-year growth of 18.3%. Transportation ticketing revenue was 6.31 billion HKD, up 11.6% year-over-year. The international business continued to grow significantly, with total bookings on the international OTA platform increasing by approximately 60% year-over-year [8][2]. - The company has increased its marketing expenses to support overseas business expansion, leading to a sales expense ratio of 22.8%, which is an increase of 1.5 percentage points year-over-year [8][2]. - The sale of MakeMyTrip shares resulted in a substantial non-recurring gain, with other income for Q3 2025 reaching 17.03 billion HKD, a significant rise from 1.78 billion HKD in the same period last year [8][2]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for Ctrip Group are estimated at 61.68 billion HKD for 2025, 70.16 billion HKD for 2026, and 79.54 billion HKD for 2027, with year-over-year growth rates of 15.7%, 13.8%, and 13.4% respectively [4][9]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 31.65 billion HKD in 2025, 20.62 billion HKD in 2026, and 23.59 billion HKD in 2027, with growth rates of 85.4%, -34.9%, and 14.4% respectively [4][9]. - The report anticipates a price-to-earnings ratio of 20x for 2026, leading to a target market capitalization of 452.4 billion HKD [8][4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the company with a target price of 15 yuan [2][8]. Core Insights - The company's performance trend is overall positive, with significant growth in revenue and net profit for the first three quarters of 2025. Revenue reached 186 million yuan, up 17.45% year-on-year, and net profit was 18 million yuan, up 362.49% year-on-year [2][8]. - The impact of the divestment of the IVD business is clearing, leading to a recovery in revenue growth and a significant increase in profit margins. The company expects continued growth driven by overseas expansion and new partnerships [8]. - The company has secured a major cooperation agreement with a global biotechnology giant, which is expected to enhance its overseas business and drive future revenue growth [8]. Financial Summary - For 2024A, total revenue is projected at 224 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of -11.7%. By 2025E, revenue is expected to increase to 272 million yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 21.5% [4]. - The net profit for 2024A is estimated at 17 million yuan, with a significant increase to 25 million yuan in 2025E, representing a growth rate of 44.9% [4]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to rise from 0.04 yuan in 2024A to 0.06 yuan in 2025E [4]. Business Development - The company is actively expanding its domestic and international business, with notable partnerships in the retail and food processing sectors. Collaborations with major clients like Hema Fresh and Kang Shifu are highlighted [8]. - The company is also pursuing government contracts in various provinces, enhancing its presence in the public sector [8].