证 券 研 究 报 告 房地产行业周报（2026 年第 10 周） 二手房成交环比增加，保利新增杭州城东新 推荐（维持） 城宅地 行业研究 房地产 2026 年 03 月 11 日 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：单戈 邮箱：shange@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360522110001 证券分析师：许常捷 邮箱：xuchangjie@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360525030002 证券分析师：杨航 邮箱：yanghang@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360525090001 行业基本数据 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数(只) | 107 | 0.01 | | 总市值(亿元) | 12,119.76 | 0.94 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 11,612.43 | 1.12 | 相对指数表现 | % | 1M | 6M | 12M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 绝对表现 | -4.9% | -4.1% | 3.9% | | 相对表现 | -3.9% | -9.3% | -15.1% | -11% 0% 11% ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 华润啤酒（00291.HK）2025 年业绩预告点评 强推（维持） 主业扎实坚挺，白酒卸下包袱 目标价：40 港元 事项： 评论： ❖ 风险提示：高端竞争加剧，白酒业务拓展不及预期，成本大幅波动。 [主要财务指标 Indicator_FinchinaSimpleHK] | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万元) | 38,635 | 39,640 | 41,133 | 42,390 | | 同比增速(%) | -0.8% | 2.6% | 3.8% | 3.1% | | 归母净利润(百万元) | 4,739 | 3,332 | 6,388 | 6,460 | | 同比增速(%) | -8.0% | -29.7% | 91.7% | 1.1% | | 每股盈利(元) | 1.46 | 1.03 | 1.97 | 1.99 | | 市盈率(倍) | 16 | 23 | 12 | 12 | | 市净率(倍) | 2.4 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 资料来源：公司公 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 房地产行业周报（2026 年第 10 周） 行业研究 房地产 2026 年 03 月 11 日 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：单戈 邮箱：shange@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360522110001 证券分析师：许常捷 邮箱：xuchangjie@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360525030002 证券分析师：杨航 二手房成交环比增加，保利新增杭州城东新 推荐（维持） 城宅地 邮箱：yanghang@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360525090001 行业基本数据 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数(只) | 107 | 0.01 | | 总市值(亿元) | 12,119.76 | 0.94 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 11,612.43 | 1.12 | 相对指数表现 | % | 1M | 6M | 12M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 绝对表现 | -4.9% | -4.1% | 3.9% | | 相对表现 | -3.9% | -9.3% | -15.1% | -11% 0% 11% ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 重庆啤酒（600132）2025 年报点评 强推（维持） 结构逆势升级，经营显现韧性 目标价：67 元 事项： ❖ 公司发布 2025 年报，25 年公司实现营业总收入 147.2 亿元，同增 0.5%；实现 归母净利 12.3 亿元，同增 10.4%；实现扣非归母净利 11.9 亿元，同降 2.8%； 单 Q4 公司实现营业总收入 16.6 亿元，同增 5.2%；实现归母净利-0.1 亿元， 24 年同期为-2.2 亿元；实现扣非归母净利为-0.3 亿元，24 年同期为-0.8 亿元。 25 年公司派发现金分红 12.1 亿元，同增 4.2%，对应 25 年分红率为 98.3%。 评论： [ReportFinancialIndex] 主要财务指标 | | 2025A | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万) | 14,722 | 15,195 | 15,519 | 15,740 | | 同比增速(%) | 0.5% | 3.2% | 2.1% | 1.4% | | 归母净利润(百万) | ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 重庆啤酒（600132）2025 年报点评 强推（维持） 结构逆势升级，经营显现韧性 目标价：67 元 事项： ❖ 公司发布 2025 年报，25 年公司实现营业总收入 147.2 亿元，同增 0.5%；实现 归母净利 12.3 亿元，同增 10.4%；实现扣非归母净利 11.9 亿元，同降 2.8%； 单 Q4 公司实现营业总收入 16.6 亿元，同增 5.2%；实现归母净利-0.1 亿元， 24 年同期为-2.2 亿元；实现扣非归母净利为-0.3 亿元，24 年同期为-0.8 亿元。 25 年公司派发现金分红 12.1 亿元，同增 4.2%，对应 25 年分红率为 98.3%。 当前价：57.04 元 华创证券研究所 评论： [ReportFinancialIndex] 主要财务指标 | | 2025A | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万) | 14,722 | 15,195 | 15,519 | 15,740 | | 同比增速(%) | 0.5% | 3.2% | 2.1% | ...

Export Performance - In January-February, China's dollar-denominated exports increased by 21.8% year-on-year, significantly exceeding Bloomberg's expectation of 7.2% and up from 6.6% in December[1] - The average export value in January-February compared to December decreased by 8.2%, marking the highest historical decline for the same period in 20 years[3] - The growth in exports was primarily driven by the strong performance of midstream manufacturing, with machinery and electrical products seeing a 27.1% increase, contributing 16.3 percentage points to total exports[3] Key Growth Drivers - Enterprises are actively expanding exports to non-traditional markets, with exports to these markets growing by 25.5%, outpacing traditional markets by 5.9 percentage points[4] - European credit expansion has led to a manufacturing recovery, resulting in a 27.8% increase in exports to Europe, contributing 4.1 percentage points to overall export growth[5] - Increased investment in AI and electricity in the U.S. has benefited exports of electronic and electrical equipment, with integrated circuit exports surging by 72.6%[6] Import Trends - Imports also exceeded expectations, with a year-on-year increase of 19.8%, far above the consensus forecast of 7% and up from 5.7% in December[1] - The average import value in January-February decreased by 9.1% compared to December, which is better than the historical average decline of 16.5%[67] - The electronic supply chain contributed to a significant 8.6% increase in imports, compared to 3.3% in December[73]

Market Overview - As of the end of December 2025, fixed-income wealth management products dominated the market with 39,087 products, accounting for 86.3% of the total, and a scale of 24.31 trillion yuan, representing 76.6% of the total market size[3] - In January 2026, the number of fixed-income products slightly decreased to 38,477, but the scale remained stable at 24.26 trillion yuan, indicating a robust market structure[3] Yield Trends - The weighted average yield of the wealth management market rose significantly, increasing by 71 basis points (bp) to 1.95% in December 2025 and then surging by 176 bp to 3.72% in January 2026, marking a new high since 2025[3] - The rise in yields was primarily driven by the performance of commodity, equity-linked, and fixed-income+ products[3] Fund Market Dynamics - In January 2026, the total scale of public funds was 37.22 trillion yuan, a decrease of 1.21% from the previous month, mainly due to a significant contraction in equity funds[46] - By February 2026, the fund market slightly rebounded to 37.228 trillion yuan, reflecting a 0.03% increase from January, with a year-on-year growth rate of over 12%[47] Savings Trends - As of January 2026, household deposits reached 168.04 trillion yuan, up by 2.15 trillion yuan from December 2025, with a month-on-month growth of 1.29% and a year-on-year increase of 7.19%[28] - The increase in savings was attributed to seasonal factors, including year-end bonuses and consumer spending preparations ahead of the Spring Festival[33] Insurance Market Performance - In 2025, the insurance industry reported a premium income of 6.12 trillion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 7.43%, with life insurance premiums accounting for 76% of the total[8] - The growth in life insurance premiums was primarily driven by the increase in traditional life insurance products, which saw an 11.40% year-on-year growth[8] Risk Factors - Potential risks include slower-than-expected policy implementation, increased uncertainty from overseas factors, and insufficient liquidity in specific market segments[8]

Industry Development Dynamics - The EU officially established the world's first permanent carbon removal certification standard on February 3, 2026, aiming to transform carbon removal into a "financial-grade" asset[10] - In 2026, China's Ministry of Agriculture will promote a comprehensive green transformation in agriculture, targeting an 80% utilization rate of livestock and poultry manure[9] - The International Energy Agency predicts that by the end of 2030, renewable energy and nuclear power will account for 50% of the global electricity structure[17] ESG Capital Market Dynamics - As of February 28, 2026, the CSI ESG 100 Index showed the best performance, rising by 1.5%, while the Shanghai Composite Index increased by 1.1%[25] - By the end of February 2026, there were approximately 62 ESG-themed public funds with a total net asset of 22.8 billion RMB, with no new ESG funds launched in February[26] - The total number of ESG bonds in China reached 2,790, with a total balance of 39,755 billion RMB, including 12,272 billion RMB in financial bonds, the largest category[32] Risk Factors - Rapid policy changes and uncertainties, slower-than-expected policy implementation, and the impact of the "anti-ESG" wave pose significant risks[38]

宏观研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【宏观快评】 全球交易模式换档的油价"阈值"在哪里？ 主要观点 ❖ 核心观点：近期中东局势扰动致油价剧震，历史复盘显示，油价绝对水位与短 期上涨斜率对判断市场情绪切换或均具参考意义。WTI 原油 80 美元/桶为关键 情绪分水岭：升破该水位后，若呈短期（20 个交易日）涨幅不足 20%的"缓 升"，则风险资产表现分化，新兴市场股指率先承压；若呈涨幅超 20%的"急 涨"，则流动性冲击特征相对突出，股债双跌且美元走强。若油价进一步升破 100 美元/桶，即便短期涨幅不足 20%，风险资产将遭遇无差别普跌，美元与 VIX 指数大幅飙升。映射至当前，3 月 6 日 WTI 油价已经突破 90 美元/桶，3 月 9 日内破百，且近二十个交易日涨幅已超过 40%，不过 3 月 10 日内又跌回 90 以下，波动巨大，后续仍待观察。 正文内容 ❖ 近期中东局势变化莫测，导致油价波动明显加剧，冲击全球金融市场。鉴于地 缘政治的演变难以精准预判，而资产价格的运行或有迹可循，因此我们试图从 历史数据中，寻找油价水位与交易逻辑切换之间的"阈值"规律（即，多高的油 价可能触发市场情绪从交易"再通胀 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 【点评报告】 量化看市场系列之七：使用 OpenClaw 快速搭建 AI 助理团队 ❖ 摘要 在人工智能应用日益深入的今天，单一 Agent（智能体）模式的局限性正成为 制约智能交互体验的关键瓶颈。OpenClaw 创新性地摒弃了传统的"全能 Bot" 理念，转而采用多 Agent 协同架构。 OpenClaw 多 Agent 架构的设计哲学，源于现代管理学中一个基本共识：没有 一个人是全能的，但一个组织可以是。我们不是试图打造一个无所不能的"神"， 而是构建一支各有所长、协同作战的"AI 特种兵团队"。这一架构的实现，依 赖于对每个 Agent 进行彻底的"物理隔离"与机制化的"精准协作"，其核心 在于赋予每个 Agent 三大独立属性，从根源上瓦解单一 Agent 的固有顽疾。 本文构建了调度、编程、写作、头脑风暴四个 Agent 进行协作，并分别给出了 创建过程，在使用多 Agent 过程中，写明了如何写 SOUL.MD，如何建立飞书 绑定等。最后指导多智能体协同工作，共同完成任务。 OpenClaw 多 Agent 架构的核心魅力在于将"全能 Bot"升级为"专业团队"。 通过 ...