证 券 研 究 报 告 中通快递-W（02057.HK）2025 年报点评 强推（维持） 提高股东综合回报，量质并举彰显龙头价值， 持续强推 ❖ 公司发布 2025 年业绩： 财务数据：25Q4 调整后净利润 26.95 亿元，同比下降 1.4%，单票调整后净利 润 0.26 元，同比下滑 0.03 元，环比 Q3 持平（Q3 收到所得税返还 3.76 亿元 若剔除所得税返还的影响，根据我们测算，Q4 单票调整后净利润环比 Q3 提 升约 0.033 元）。25 年全年累计调整后净利润 95.1 亿元，同比下滑 6.3%，单 票调整后净利润 0.25 亿元，同比下滑 17.2%，降幅约 0.05 元。 业务量：25Q4 完成业务量 105.6 亿件，同比增长 9.2%，超过行业增速 4.2 个 pct，Q4 公司市场份额 19.6%，同比提升 0.8 个 pct，环比 25Q3 提升 0.2 个 pct。 25 年全年完成包裹量 385.2 亿件，同比+13.3%，实现市占率 19.4%，同比持 平。2025 年散件业务量持续提升，25Q4 实现日均 980 万件，同比增长超 38%。 单票收入：25Q4 单 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for Li Auto-W (02015.HK) [1] Core Insights - Li Auto reported a net profit of 0.2 billion yuan in Q4 2025, marking a year-on-year decrease of 35 billion yuan but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 6.4 billion yuan. The total revenue for Q4 2025 was 28.8 billion yuan, down 35% year-on-year but up 5.2% quarter-on-quarter [1][7] - The company is expected to experience a turnaround in sales driven by new model launches and improved management efficiency. The i6 model is entering stable delivery phases, with monthly delivery capacity expected to reach 20,000 units [1][7] - Organizational restructuring is aimed at enhancing R&D and sales efficiency, with a focus on improving collaboration and operational quality [1][7] Financial Performance Summary - For the full year 2025, Li Auto achieved total revenue of 112.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 22%, and a net profit of 1.1 billion yuan, down 69 billion yuan year-on-year [1][3] - Key financial metrics for 2026E include total revenue projected at 131.3 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 16.9%, and a net profit of 0.96 billion yuan, reflecting a decline of 14.3% [3][8] - The company’s gross margin for Q4 2025 was 17.8%, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1.5 percentage points [1][7] Sales and Production Outlook - The sales volume for Q4 2025 was 109,000 units, down 31% year-on-year but up 17% quarter-on-quarter. The average selling price (ASP) for vehicles was 250,000 yuan, showing a slight decline [1][7] - The company plans to launch the next-generation L9 and L9 Livis models in Q2 2026, with the L9 Livis priced at 559,800 yuan, featuring significant technological upgrades [1][7] Management and Strategy - Li Auto is implementing a "store partner plan" to enhance operational quality and efficiency in its direct sales system, which is expected to improve profitability [1][7] - The company’s management capabilities and forward-looking strategies are viewed as robust, positioning it well for recovery and growth in the AI era [1][7]

债券研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【债券日报】 地缘冲击暂不明朗，降息仍需等待——美联 储 3 月议息会议点评 1）经济增速方面，上调 2026-2028 年以及更长期的 GDP 增长预期。预计 2026 年、2027 年、2028 年和更长期的实际 GDP 增速分别为 2.4%（前值 2.3%）、 2.3%（前值 2.0%）、2.1%（前值 1.9%）、2.0%（前值 1.8%）。 2）就业方面，上调 2027 年的失业率预期。2026 年和 2028 年失业率水平分别 持平为 4.4%、4.2%，2027 年失业率上调 0.1 个百分点至 4.3%。 3）通胀方面，上调今明年的 PCE 通胀以及核心 PCE 通胀预期。2026 年 PCE 和核心 PCE 预期分别上调 0.3 个百分点、0.2 个百分点至 2.7%、2.7%，2027 年 PCE 通胀与核心 PCE 通胀预期均上调 0.1 个百分点为 2.2%、2.2%。 4）点阵图方面，3 月点阵图预计 2026 年、2027 年各降息一次，中值与 12 月 持平。3 月点阵图美联储对于今明后三年的利率展望基本维持，意味着 2026 年、2027 年仅 ...

1、地方城投退出和转型情况如何？结合地方两会，2025 年，内蒙古融资平台 压降 87%、辽宁压降 85.2%、甘肃压降 81.3%、安徽压降 80%以上、江西退出 346 家、湖南退出 304 家、河南退出 251 家、陕西 170 家、天津 53 家、宁夏 融资平台数量明显下降。2026 年，多省表示，继续加快融资平台有序退出和 实质性转型，严禁新设或异化产生各类融资平台。 证 券 研 究 报 告 【债券深度报告】 城投转型背景下的"类城投"发债新面孔 ❖ 2025 年至今，新增了不少"类城投"的首发债主体，其主营业务与之前城投公 司类似或由其业务转型发展而来，但不承担政府融资职能，主要包括城市运营、 产投及国资运营主体等，为"资产荒"下的信用债市场带来了一定投资增量。 我们将在此前推出的【华创固收 3802 家城投主体名单】基础上新增【"类城 投"主体名单】，以助力把握市场增量投资机会。 ❖ 一、城投公司退出与转型：政策要求与地方经济发展的必由之路 2023 年以来，中央层面大力推进城投剥离政府融资职能，推动市场化转型进 程。三年过去，城投退出和转型也取得显著成效，2025 年末已有 70%的城投 实现 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for Li Auto-W (02015.HK) [1] Core Views - Li Auto reported a net profit of 0.2 billion yuan in Q4 2025, marking a year-on-year decline of 35 billion yuan but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 6.4 billion yuan. The total revenue for Q4 2025 was 28.8 billion yuan, down 35% year-on-year but up 5.2% quarter-on-quarter. For the full year 2025, revenue was 112.3 billion yuan, a 22% decline year-on-year, with a net profit of 1.1 billion yuan, down 69 billion yuan year-on-year [1][7] Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue and Profitability**: - Q4 2025 revenue was 28.8 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decrease of 35% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 5.2%. The full-year revenue for 2025 was 112.3 billion yuan, down 22% year-on-year. The net profit for Q4 2025 was 0.2 billion yuan, a decrease of 35 billion yuan year-on-year but an increase of 6.4 billion yuan quarter-on-quarter [1][7] - **Sales Volume**: - In Q4 2025, the sales volume was 109,000 vehicles, down 31% year-on-year but up 17% quarter-on-quarter. The average selling price (ASP) for vehicles was 250,000 yuan, down 19,000 yuan year-on-year and 28,000 yuan quarter-on-quarter [1][7] - **Gross Margin**: - The gross margin for Q4 2025 was 17.8%, a decrease of 2.4 percentage points year-on-year but an increase of 1.5 percentage points quarter-on-quarter. The vehicle gross margin was 16.8%, down 2.9 percentage points year-on-year but up 1.3 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [1][7] - **Cost and Expenses**: - R&D expense ratio was 10.5%, up 5.0 percentage points year-on-year, while SG&A expense ratio was 9.2%, up 2.2 percentage points year-on-year [1][7] Future Outlook - **New Model Launches**: - The company plans to launch a new generation of L9 and a new version of L9 Livis in Q2 2026, with the L9 Livis priced at 559,800 yuan. The i6 model is expected to contribute significantly to sales in 2026, with monthly delivery capacity projected to reach 20,000 units [1][7] - **Organizational Improvements**: - Li Auto has restructured its R&D organization to enhance efficiency and reduce the iteration cycle for AI model training from two weeks to one day. Sales channel reforms are also underway to improve operational quality [1][7] - **Sales and Revenue Forecasts**: - The sales forecasts for 2026-2027 have been adjusted down to 500,000 and 520,000 vehicles, respectively. Revenue forecasts for the same period have been revised to 131.3 billion and 140.2 billion yuan. Net profit forecasts have also been adjusted to 0.96 billion and 3.81 billion yuan for 2026 and 2027, respectively [1][7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for the real estate sector [2] Core Insights - New and second-hand housing transactions have increased on a month-on-month basis, with new housing transactions up by 42% and second-hand housing transactions up by 25% in the latest week [5][19] - The report highlights ongoing challenges in the real estate market, including a decline in new housing demand, unresolved inventory issues, and the negative impact of land finance on the economy [5][19] Industry Data - The total number of listed companies in the real estate sector is 107, with a total market capitalization of approximately 1,216.63 billion and a circulating market capitalization of about 1,165.62 billion [2] - The real estate index fell by 0.5% in the latest week, ranking 14th among 31 primary industry sectors [8][10] Sales Performance - In the latest week, the average daily transaction area for new homes in 20 monitored cities was 24.5 million square meters, with a total transaction area of 172 million square meters, reflecting a 42% increase month-on-month but a 13% decrease year-on-year [19][21] - For second-hand homes, the average daily transaction area in 11 monitored cities was 30.3 million square meters, with a total transaction area of 212 million square meters, showing a 25% increase month-on-month but an 18% decrease year-on-year [24][27] Policy Developments - Recent policy adjustments include changes to housing provident fund policies in Fuzhou and Chengdu, aimed at encouraging home purchases and increasing loan limits for homebuyers [13][15] Company Dynamics - Poly Developments acquired a residential land parcel in Hangzhou for 1.586 billion, with a floor price of 38,084 yuan per square meter and a premium rate of 16.1% [16] - Greentown China successfully acquired residential land in Ningbo for 467 million, with a premium of 5.89% [16] - China Resources Land reported a total contract sales amount of approximately 10.05 billion for February 2026, with a year-on-year decrease of 25.6% [17]

行业研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 房地产行业周报 新房与二手房成交环比增加，绿城新增上海、 推荐（维持） 宁波两块宅地 房地产 2026 年 03 月 19 日 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：单戈 邮箱：shange@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360522110001 证券分析师：许常捷 邮箱：xuchangjie@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360525030002 证券分析师：杨航 邮箱：yanghang@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360525090001 行业基本数据 相关研究报告 《房地产行业周报（2026 年第 10 周）：二手房成 交环比增加，保利新增杭州城东新城宅地》 2026-03-11 《房地产行业周报（2026 年第 9 周）：上海宽松 限购，越秀摘得广州马场核心地块》 2026-03-03 《房地产行业周报（2026 年 7-8 周）：春节前后 新房与二手房成交面积同比减少，中海新增香港 九龙牛头角地块》 2026-02-24 证监会审核华创证券投资咨询业务资格批文号：证监许可（2009）1210 号 ❑ 板块行情：第 11 周（3 月 9 日-3 月 13 日）申万 ...

Monetary Policy Insights - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate at 3.5%-3.75% during the March meeting, removing the statement about stabilization in the labor market[3] - Economic growth expectations for 2026 were raised by 0.1% to 2.4%, while core PCE inflation expectations were increased by 0.2% to 2.7%[3] - The dot plot indicates potential rate cuts in 2026 and 2027, with a neutral rate rising to 3.1%, suggesting challenges in achieving two rate cuts[3][6] Economic Projections - The GDP growth forecast for 2026 was adjusted from 2.3% to 2.4%, and for 2027 from 2% to 2.3%[7] - Core PCE inflation expectations for 2026 increased from 2.5% to 2.7%, while the unemployment rate forecast for 2026 remained at 4.4%[7] Inflation and Geopolitical Risks - High oil prices are pushing long-term U.S. Treasury yields higher, negatively impacting corporate earnings outlooks, exacerbated by geopolitical tensions[3][9] - The Fed's discussions highlighted uncertainties in inflation paths due to tariff impacts and energy price fluctuations, complicating monetary policy decisions[8] Future Rate Cut Considerations - Powell indicated limited space for further rate cuts, with the neutral rate now close to the lower bound of the federal funds rate, making it difficult to realize expectations for two rate cuts[8] - Internal discussions about potential rate hikes are in early stages, with some FOMC members suggesting future actions may include rate increases[9]

从机构格局上看，银行理财业务经历了从母行部门到独立理财子的转变。2004 年-2018 年为母行资管部模式；2019 年至今为理财子公司模式，截至 2025 年 末，全国已开业理财子公司达 32 家，行业架构持续完善，头部机构引领行业 发展，行业集中度保持合理区间。随着行业从"高速扩张"向"高质量发展" 转型，理财子公司新设审批逐步收紧，进入高度审慎、择优审批的常态化阶段。 从市场份额上看，理财子占据绝对市场份额。据 2018 年-2025 年银行理财规 模统计，银行理财子公司市场份额呈爆发式增长态势，截至 2025 年已占据逾 九成市场份额，成为银行理财市场绝对主导力量。截至 2025 年末，头部理财 子公司呈现"两超多强"竞争格局，规模梯队分化特征显著。 综合金融 2026 年 03 月 18 日 华创证券研究所 产业研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 产业月度跟踪 流水不腐，户枢不蠹 ——中国银行理财发展历程与存款迁徙研究 证券分析师：洪锦屏 邮箱：hongjinping@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360516110002 行业基本数据 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | ...

宏观研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【宏观专题】 寻锚大变局：全球资金在买什么？——全球 资金流动周报第 1 期 ❖ 前言。 全球资产配置的研究离不开对跨境资金流动的跟踪、测度及判断。在当前全球 地缘局势动荡、宏观叙事频繁切换的背景下，资金的高频流动往往先于基本面 数据，反映出市场的真实预期与风险偏好。就资金跟踪这个环节，我们的理解 是，既要做"加法"，也要做"减法"。所谓加法，即要全面覆盖全球各大类资 产、核心区域的资金动态，并拉长观测周期。所谓减法，即要有的放矢，避免 陷入海量高频数据的噪音中，提炼出真正影响定价的边际变量。 我们从本期开始，定期为投资者梳理全球资金流动与结构变迁全景。我们的做 法是，一方面保证视角的宏大与全面，做到大类资产与主要经济体基本不遗不 漏；另一方面，以客观、去观点化的方式呈现数据事实，重点提取历史分位点 和边际变化幅度，帮助快速锚定当下的资金流动趋势。 一是全球大类资产资金流向全景。涵盖股票、债券、货币市场、另类及均衡基 金等核心大类资产。我们构建了"长周期（十年月度）+ 短周期（一年周度）" 的双主线观测模型。长周期用于定位当前资金涌入或流出的历史水位区间，提 供战略级别的配置 ...