Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the transportation industry, indicating an expected increase in the industry index exceeding the benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 3-6 months [78]. Core Insights - The report highlights the significant impact of the ongoing Middle East conflict on shipping rates, with oil tanker rates experiencing a decline but remaining at historical highs, while container shipping rates are on the rise [1][2]. - The daily average of vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz has drastically decreased by 95% to 5 vessels, compared to 125 vessels before the conflict, with oil tankers averaging only 1 vessel per day [1][11]. - Brent crude oil futures have shown substantial volatility, closing at $103.89 per barrel, an increase of 11% from March 6 [1][15]. Industry Data Tracking Shipping Market Impact - Oil shipping rates have adjusted from historical highs, with the Clarksons VLCC-TCE index at $175,000, down 54.2% week-on-week. The Middle East to China route is reported at $390,000 per day, down 17% [2][18]. - Container shipping rates have increased, with the SCFI index reaching 1710 points, up 14.9% week-on-week, driven by rising fuel costs and the ongoing geopolitical situation [2][25]. - The dry bulk shipping market has seen limited impact, with the BDI index at 2028 points, reflecting a 0.9% increase week-on-week [2][26]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that if the Middle East conflict remains manageable and the passage through the Strait of Hormuz gradually resumes, it could trigger a replenishment market. The report continues to recommend companies such as China Merchants Energy and COSCO Shipping Energy [3][31]. - Emphasis is placed on the importance of energy resource security, with recommendations for logistics and warehousing companies like Hongchuan Wisdom and Milky Way [3][31]. - The report also highlights the potential for growth in the aviation sector, with a focus on major airlines and logistics companies, suggesting a favorable outlook for companies like China Southern Airlines and Spring Airlines [4][58].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for EHang Intelligent (EH) [1] Core Insights - EHang Intelligent achieved a total revenue of 510 million yuan in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 11.7%. The fourth quarter saw a revenue of 244 million yuan, with a significant year-on-year increase of 48.4% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 163.6% [6] - The company reported a net loss attributable to shareholders of 231 million yuan for the full year 2025, while the fourth quarter showed a net profit of 10.49 million yuan. The adjusted net profit for the year was 29.4 million yuan, marking the second consecutive year of non-GAAP profitability, with Q4 adjusted net profit reaching 71.5 million yuan [6] - EHang delivered a total of 221 eVTOL products in 2025, including 215 EH216 series products and 6 VT35 aircraft. The fourth quarter alone saw the highest quarterly delivery of 100 units [6] - The commercial operation of EH216-S in China is set to officially launch in March 2026, with two operators, EHang General Aviation and He Yi Aviation, starting ticketed aerial sightseeing services [6] - EHang is also making progress in overseas commercialization, with plans to obtain its first overseas commercial operation license in Thailand, Qatar, and Japan [6] Financial Summary - The total revenue forecast for 2026 is adjusted to 619 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 21.5%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be a loss of 182 million yuan, while the adjusted net profit is expected to be 76 million yuan [2][6] - For 2027, the revenue is forecasted to reach 900 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 45.4%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to narrow to a loss of 32 million yuan, and the adjusted net profit is projected to be 206 million yuan [2][6] - The report introduces a new revenue forecast for 2028 at 1.1 billion yuan, with an expected net profit of 16 million yuan and an adjusted net profit of 280 million yuan [6]

观点：我们认为当前中东冲突加剧海外供给脆弱性，将加剧全球原铝偏紧格 局，铝价呈现高波震荡，当前铝格局或不只是冲突导致的短期区域性供给受限 问题，或因能源问题衍生到全球性范围，关注板块机会。当前看中东区域已经 明确卡塔尔减产 40%，其全面复产或需 6-12 个月，供给短期难以恢复；考虑 霍尔木兹海峡封闭限制原料/铝锭贸易，对中东生产&全球现货双杀，中东氧化 铝高度依赖进口，铝锭高度依赖出口，目前中东冲突已经持续 2 周，中东地区 氧化铝原料面临库存偏紧局面，将影响氧化铝自给率低的中东企业供给稳定 性，同时影响全球现货供给，从近期看，中东问题叠加部分国家与地区对俄铝 实施贸易管制带来显性缺货压力，LME 现货紧张程度持续加剧，LME 注销仓 单持续攀升，可实际动用库存已降至 2025 年 5 月以来最低，海外铝流动性 影响下升水持续攀升，对伦铝价格支撑性强。 此外，需警惕本轮因能源成本上涨导致的供给风险向全球化波及。当前冲突已 造成原油、欧洲天然气等能源价格暴涨，考虑电力占电解铝成本 30-40%，能 源上涨或导致电解铝电力成本攀升从而压缩企业利润，导致部分高成本地区企 业减产或停产。以 2022 年俄乌冲突的 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for the automotive industry, indicating that the sentiment has reached an inflection point and AIDC remains a key investment direction [3][4]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the terminal sales of passenger vehicles and the complete vehicle sector have shown signs of recovery, with new car price increases being recognized by some investors as a counter to rising raw material costs. Additionally, the increase in oil and gas prices has contributed to a positive shift in investment sentiment [3][4]. - The report suggests that the automotive sector is expected to see improved sales, profitability, and exports in March and April, with specific recommendations for companies such as Geely, BYD, and Jianghuai Automotive [6][10]. Data Tracking - In February, new energy vehicle deliveries showed varied performance, with BYD delivering 190,190 units (down 41.1% year-on-year), while NIO saw a significant increase of 57.6% year-on-year with 20,797 units delivered [5][20]. - Traditional automakers also reported significant sales changes, with SAIC Motor leading with 269,000 units sold (down 8.6% year-on-year) [5][21]. - The average discount rate in the industry increased to 9.3%, with a discount amount of 20,940 yuan, reflecting a slight year-on-year decrease [5][7]. Industry News - The report notes that the average price of lithium carbonate in Q1 2026 reached 154,227 yuan per ton, marking a 103% year-on-year increase [9]. - The automotive export figures for February showed a significant growth of 52.4% year-on-year, with a total of 672,000 vehicles exported [10][26]. - The report mentions that the capital restructuring plan of Dongfeng Motor Corporation was approved, allowing it to privatize and list its high-end electric vehicle brand, Lantu, on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [26].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for the aluminum sector, highlighting ongoing supply disruptions and recovering demand as key factors for price fluctuations [2]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes that ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are exacerbating supply vulnerabilities, leading to a tight global aluminum market and high price volatility. The aluminum price is expected to remain elevated due to these factors [3][4]. - Domestic aluminum processing enterprises have shown a recovery in operating rates, with a 2.4 percentage point increase to 61.9% week-on-week, indicating a positive trend in demand recovery [3]. - The report suggests that the current geopolitical situation may not only be a short-term issue but could lead to a broader global supply crisis, particularly affecting aluminum and alumina imports and exports from the Middle East [3][4]. Industry Data Summary Production Data - The average profit for the electrolytic aluminum industry is around 8,800 CNY/ton, with expectations for sustained high profitability in the future [5]. - The report notes that the operating rates for various aluminum sectors have increased, with aluminum wire and cable production rising by 2 percentage points to 65%, and aluminum profiles seeing a significant increase of 7.3 percentage points to 51.8% [3]. Inventory Data - Global aluminum inventories are reported to be at historically low levels, with LME registered warehouse receipts continuing to rise, indicating a tightening supply situation [4][5]. Consumption Data - The report highlights that domestic aluminum apparent consumption is on an upward trend, with expectations for improved performance during the "Golden March" consumption period [4]. Company Performance - The report mentions that Jiaozuo Wanfang has achieved record high performance in 2025, with a revenue of 6.495 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 0.46%, and a net profit of 1.071 billion CNY, up 81.95% year-on-year [6][11]. - The company is also pursuing a significant asset restructuring to enhance its resource security and profitability stability by integrating its operations across the aluminum value chain [11]. Stock Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies within the aluminum sector such as China Hongqiao, Hongchuang Holdings, and others, indicating a positive outlook for the aluminum and precious metals sectors [12].

公司研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 亿航智能（EH）2025 年业绩点评 推荐（维持） 2025 年调整后净利 2940 万元，商业化运营 大幕将启 [ReportFinancialIndex] 主要财务指标 | | 2025A | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万) | 510 | 619 | 900 | 1,102 | | 同比增速(%) | 11.7% | 21.5% | 45.4% | 22.5% | | 归母净利润(百万) | -231 | -182 | -32 | 16 | | 同比增速(%) | -0.3% | 21.1% | 82.5% | 150.3% | | 调整后净利润（百万） | 29 | 76 | 206 | 276 | | 同比增速(%) | -32.9% | 163.8% | 170.8% | 33.8% | | 每股盈利(元) | -1.60 | -1.26 | -0.22 | 0.11 | | 市盈率(倍，调整后) | 213 | 81 | 30 | 22 | | 市净率(倍) ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 涨价链：谁受益？谁承压？ 2026年3月15日 证券分析师：姚 佩 执业编号：S0360522120004 邮箱：yaopei@hcyjs.com 证券分析师：丁炎晨 执业编号：S0360523070005 邮箱：dingyanchen@hcyjs.com 本报告由华创证券有限责任公司编制 卖的出价或询价。本报告所载信息均为个人观点，并不构成对所涉及证券的个人投资建议。 请仔细阅读PPT后部分的分析师声明及免责声明。 @2021 华创 版权所有 涨价链：谁受益？谁承压？ 证 券 研 究 报 告 2 • 近期地缘政治冲突引发油价大涨，市场对通胀回归的预期持续升温，根据华创宏观团队测算，油价每涨10%，对PPI的拉动或约0.3-0.4pct，策略视角更关注企业业绩层面， 以及结构上各行业的成本压力和利润传导。 • 通胀回归背景下的行业比较：复盘历史上典型的通胀回归周期，上游最为受益，毛利率扩张提供利润空间；制造业与消费整体承压，但分化明显，与产业周期景气度相关性 强；公用事业承压，成本高度依赖上游原材料，而终端价格受政策调控难以顺畅传导。 • 油价上涨的三条传导路径： 公用事业链：石油天然 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 交通运输行业周报（20260309-20260315） 聚焦：中东冲突第二周，油轮运价回调但仍处 推荐（维持） 历史高位，集运运价上行 一、聚焦：中东冲突第二周，油轮运价回调但仍处历史高位，集运运价上行 1、霍尔木兹海峡通行情况：本周日均 5 艘船舶通行（冲突前为 125 艘），下降 95%；其中油轮日均通行 1 艘（冲突前为 40 艘），80%的通行船舶为出湾方向。 2、波斯湾原油生产及出口情况：沙特红海延布港为替代外运渠道，有望新增 300-400 万桶/日的外运量；此外，伊朗仍有 200 万桶/日的石油经霍尔木兹海 峡外运，阿联酋富查伊拉港、阿曼也各有约 100 万桶/日的石油外运。受储油 设施库容即将饱和影响，祖卢夫、萨法尼亚等主要油气田已暂停生产，目前约 有 1000 万桶/日的石油产量被迫下线。 3、油价与库存：本周布伦特原油期货价格大幅波动，周五收于 103.89 美元/ 桶，较 3 月 6 日上涨 11%；国际能源署周三宣布其 32 个成员国将协调释放 4 亿桶战略石油储备，相当于全球约 20 天消费量。 4、航运市场影响跟踪： 1）油运：运价回调，但仍处历史高位。克拉 ...

宏观研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【宏观专题】 如何具象化和跟踪中游制造的价格？ ——战略看多中游制造系列三 核心观点：中游制造涵盖的行业广泛且产品大多非标准化，本篇报告核心是选 取重点行业的代表性的 10 个产成品/核心部件/原材料价格，具象化和跟踪中 游制造价格，对齐 PPI 口径和市场感知的"价格颗粒度"。10 个跟踪价格指标 中，今年以来 8 个都在上涨（趋势重于幅度）（图 1）。 为什么关注中游制造的价格？ 中游制造是今年经济基本面中景气度最确定的方向，未来几年，受益于技术升 级和全球秩序重构之下的供给恐慌，或迎来我国中游制造的战略时代。 对于物价而言，其一，中游制造价格对 PPI 的影响在逐年扩大，PPI 权重近十 年来提升约 6 个百分点至 41%；其二，随着供需格局持续优化，中游制造 PPI 环比已连续四个月上涨，将是带动 PPI 回升的主要内生动能。 一、计算机通信电子 PPI：存储芯片和 CPU 价格 计算机通信电子是中游制造也是工业大类行业中营收规模最大的行业，2025 年的 PPI 权重约 12.5%。跟踪存储芯片和 CPU 价格（日频）。今年以来，DDR5 上涨约 33%，NAND ...

行业研究 "低空装备+低空基建"："十五五"规划纲要 推荐（维持） 为低空经济发展指明方向 交通运输 2026 年 3 月 15 日 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：吴一凡 证 券 研 究 报 告 华创交运|低空经济周报（第 67 期） 邮箱：wuyifan@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360516090002 证券分析师：梁婉怡 邮箱：liangwanyi@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360523080001 证券分析师：吴晨玥 邮箱：wuchenyue@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360523070001 证券分析师：霍鹏浩 邮箱：huopenghao@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360524030001 证券分析师：卢浩敏 邮箱：luhaomin@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360524090001 证券分析师：李清影 邮箱：liqingying@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360525080004 联系人：刘邢雨 邮箱：liuxingyu@hcyjs.com 行业基本数据 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数(只) | 122 | ...