宏观研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【每周经济观察】 大宗商品价格指数升至 2011 年以来最高水平 ——海外周报第 131 期 ❖ 核心观点： 1、重要数据回顾：①美国 1 月核心 PCE 同比创 2024 年 3 月以来最高水平， ADP 报告显示就业岗位增长较快，3 月密歇根大学消费者信心指数创三个月 新低，1 月 JOLTS 职位空缺大幅增加。②日本 2 月批发通胀继续放缓。③欧 元区 3 月 Sentix 投资者信心指数大降，1 月欧元区工业产出环比为 2024 年 12 月以来的最低水平。 2、美国基本面高频：①景气上行的有：WEI 指数（经济景气上行）、就业（初 请失业金人数回落、续请失业金回落）、物价（大宗价格回落、美国汽油零售 价回升）、地产（房贷申请数量回落）。②景气下行的有：消费（红皮书商业零 售同比边际回落）。 3、美国流动性高频：①美国和欧元区金融条件收紧。②离岸美元流动性：日 元兑美元流动性改善，欧元兑美元流动性恶化。 ❖ 一、过去一周重要数据回顾 1、美国 1 月核心 PCE 同比创 2024 年 3 月以来最高水平，ADP 报告显示就业 岗位增长较快，3 月密歇根大学消费者信心指 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 京东物流（02618.HK）2025 年报点评 推荐（维持） 25 年经调净利润 77.1 亿，持续深耕一体化供 应链，海外业务持续发力 风险提示：京东增速低于预期，第三方业务拓展低于预期，人工成本大幅上升。 [主要财务指标 Indicator_FinchinaSimpleHKNon] | | 2025A | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万元) | 217,147 | 262,804 | 286,300 | 307,609 | | 同比增速(%) | 18.8% | 21.0% | 8.9% | 7.4% | | 归母净利润(百万元) | 6,647 | 8,477 | 9,871 | 10,549 | | 同比增速(%) | 7.2% | 27.5% | 16.4% | 6.9% | | Non-GAAP 净利润(百万元) | 7,711 | 9,612 | 11,055 | 11,759 | | 同比增速(%) | -2.6% | 24.7% | 15.0% | 6.4% | | ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 兔宝宝（002043）2025 年业绩快报点评 推荐（维持） 营收微降，看好乡镇渠道兑现+定制业务盈利 修复 公司发布 2025 年业绩快报：2025 年公司实现营收 88.87 亿元，同比减少 3.29%； 归母净利润 7.22 亿元，同比增加 23.29%；扣非归母净利润 3.92 亿元，同比减 少 20.06%。 评论： [ReportFinancialIndex] 主要财务指标 | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万) | 9,189 | 8,887 | 9,697 | 10,628 | | 同比增速(%) | 1.4% | -3.3% | 9.1% | 9.6% | | 归母净利润(百万) | 585 | 722 | 783 | 895 | | 同比增速(%) | -15.1% | 23.4% | 8.4% | 14.3% | | 每股盈利(元) | 0.71 | 0.87 | 0.94 | 1.08 | | 市盈率(倍) | 22 | 18 | 17 | 1 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 【债券周报】 30-10y 利差会到多少？ ——债券周报 20260315 二、同业活期存款监管"打补丁"，影响几何？ 同业活期存款利率迎来监管升级，压降同业活期存款中超过 OMO 利率部分 的占比。2024 年 11 月监管仅规定同业活期存款（不含基础设施存款）加权不 超过 OMO 利率，在实务操作中，非银活期存款多采用组合搭配的销售方式， 导致部分存款定价偏高。本次监管升级，新增要求高于 7 天逆回购 OMO 政策 利率（1.4%）的同业活期存款规模季度末占比不超过 10%-20%。 对比 2024 年监管，有何不同？（1）规模影响或相对较小。2024 年非银存款 定价整改对于非银活期、定期中提支部分均有影响，彼时非银存款 28 万亿。 当前同业活期接近 17.8 万亿，假设需要压降的部分为 20-30%，对应的影响规 模在 3 至 5 万亿。（2）对于负债的改善幅度或有限。上市银行 2025 年 Q1 负 债成本较 2024 年年末下行 30bp 左右；假设目前高于 OMO 的同业活期存款利 率压降 10-40bp，按照上述 3 至 5 万亿的体量来估算，带动负债成本下行的幅 度 ...

存单周报（0309-0314）：供不应求，低位运行 对于存单而言，供不应求的格局下，短期或在接近 1.55%的区间低位波动，关 注季末资金边际变化。供给方面，上周存单发行攀升至 8000 亿元附近，但因 周度到期规模偏大，周度净融资转负，关注银行季末信贷投放情况，至月末仍 有较大的存单到期压力；需求方面，农商行仍是主要的配置机构，但息差空间 压缩后，二级市场边际买入量有所下降。监管方面，根据财联社消息，本周同 业活期自律管理进一步升级，明确超出 OMO 利率的活期存款的占比要求不超 过 10-20%，对比 2024 年年末监管政策看，本次整改仅针对超标部分的活期存 款，覆盖面更小，且利率压降幅度或有限（监管已限制非银活期加权不超过逆 回购利率），预计对负债成本的改善在 1bp 内。不过，当前存单市场处于"供 不应求"的环境中，高息活期存款的配置需求或向存单等进一步转移，进而带 动本周存单定价小幅下行。整体来看，当前流动性环境相对稳定，但结合买断 式逆回购回笼的操作，资金进一步宽松的空间有限，在不降息的预期下， 1yMLF 及资金价格（DR007）对存单形成下限约束，且不排除本月 MLF 操作 与买断式逆回购类 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment rating for the automotive industry, suggesting an active investment approach as the market sentiment has reached a turning point [3][6]. Core Insights - The report indicates that the terminal sales of passenger vehicles and the overall vehicle sector are showing signs of recovery, with new car price increases being accepted by some investors as a counter to rising raw material costs [3][6]. - The report highlights that the AIDC (Automotive Industry Development Corporation) remains a key investment focus, despite some stock price adjustments in companies like Weichai [3][6]. - The report recommends actively positioning in the automotive sector, particularly in the months of March and April, with expectations of exceeding sales, profitability, and export forecasts [6]. Data Tracking - In February, new energy vehicle deliveries showed varied performance, with BYD delivering 190,190 units (down 41.1% year-on-year), while NIO saw a significant increase of 57.6% year-on-year with 20,797 units delivered [5][20]. - Traditional automakers also showed notable sales performance, with BAIC Blue Valley achieving a year-on-year increase of 18.3% with 7,000 units sold [5][21]. - The average discount rate in the automotive industry increased to 9.3%, with a discount amount of 20,940 yuan, reflecting a slight year-on-year decrease [5][7]. Industry News - The report notes that the average price of lithium carbonate in Q1 2026 reached 154,227 yuan per ton, marking a year-on-year increase of 103% [9]. - The report mentions that the automotive export volume in February reached 672,000 units, representing a year-on-year growth of 52.4% [10][26]. - The report highlights that the East Wind Group's capital restructuring plan was approved, allowing for the privatization and independent listing of Lantu Motors on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [26].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the transportation industry, indicating an expected increase in the industry index exceeding the benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 3-6 months [78]. Core Insights - The report highlights the significant impact of the ongoing Middle East conflict on shipping rates, with oil tanker rates experiencing a decline but remaining at historical highs, while container shipping rates are on the rise [1][2]. - The daily average of vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz has drastically decreased by 95% to 5 vessels, compared to 125 vessels before the conflict, with oil tankers averaging only 1 vessel per day [1][11]. - Brent crude oil futures have shown substantial volatility, closing at $103.89 per barrel, an increase of 11% from March 6 [1][15]. Industry Data Tracking Shipping Market Impact - Oil shipping rates have adjusted from historical highs, with the Clarksons VLCC-TCE index at $175,000, down 54.2% week-on-week. The Middle East to China route is reported at $390,000 per day, down 17% [2][18]. - Container shipping rates have increased, with the SCFI index reaching 1710 points, up 14.9% week-on-week, driven by rising fuel costs and the ongoing geopolitical situation [2][25]. - The dry bulk shipping market has seen limited impact, with the BDI index at 2028 points, reflecting a 0.9% increase week-on-week [2][26]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that if the Middle East conflict remains manageable and the passage through the Strait of Hormuz gradually resumes, it could trigger a replenishment market. The report continues to recommend companies such as China Merchants Energy and COSCO Shipping Energy [3][31]. - Emphasis is placed on the importance of energy resource security, with recommendations for logistics and warehousing companies like Hongchuan Wisdom and Milky Way [3][31]. - The report also highlights the potential for growth in the aviation sector, with a focus on major airlines and logistics companies, suggesting a favorable outlook for companies like China Southern Airlines and Spring Airlines [4][58].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for EHang Intelligent (EH) [1] Core Insights - EHang Intelligent achieved a total revenue of 510 million yuan in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 11.7%. The fourth quarter saw a revenue of 244 million yuan, with a significant year-on-year increase of 48.4% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 163.6% [6] - The company reported a net loss attributable to shareholders of 231 million yuan for the full year 2025, while the fourth quarter showed a net profit of 10.49 million yuan. The adjusted net profit for the year was 29.4 million yuan, marking the second consecutive year of non-GAAP profitability, with Q4 adjusted net profit reaching 71.5 million yuan [6] - EHang delivered a total of 221 eVTOL products in 2025, including 215 EH216 series products and 6 VT35 aircraft. The fourth quarter alone saw the highest quarterly delivery of 100 units [6] - The commercial operation of EH216-S in China is set to officially launch in March 2026, with two operators, EHang General Aviation and He Yi Aviation, starting ticketed aerial sightseeing services [6] - EHang is also making progress in overseas commercialization, with plans to obtain its first overseas commercial operation license in Thailand, Qatar, and Japan [6] Financial Summary - The total revenue forecast for 2026 is adjusted to 619 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 21.5%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be a loss of 182 million yuan, while the adjusted net profit is expected to be 76 million yuan [2][6] - For 2027, the revenue is forecasted to reach 900 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 45.4%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to narrow to a loss of 32 million yuan, and the adjusted net profit is projected to be 206 million yuan [2][6] - The report introduces a new revenue forecast for 2028 at 1.1 billion yuan, with an expected net profit of 16 million yuan and an adjusted net profit of 280 million yuan [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for the aluminum sector, highlighting ongoing supply disruptions and recovering demand as key factors for price fluctuations [2]. Core Insights - The aluminum market is experiencing high volatility due to supply disruptions from geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, which has led to a tightening of global aluminum supplies. Domestic demand is showing signs of recovery, with a week-on-week increase in operating rates among major aluminum processing companies [3][4]. - The report emphasizes that the current geopolitical conflicts are not just short-term supply issues but may lead to a broader global supply crisis, particularly due to energy price increases affecting production costs [4][5]. - The aluminum industry is expected to maintain a tight supply-demand balance in the medium to long term, supported by low global inventories and a favorable pricing environment for aluminum [4][5]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The aluminum supply is under pressure due to reduced production in the Middle East, with Qatar's aluminum production cut by 40%. This situation is exacerbated by the ongoing geopolitical conflicts, which have led to increased energy prices and potential production cuts in high-cost regions [3][4]. - Domestic aluminum processing companies have shown a recovery in operating rates, with notable increases in specific sectors such as aluminum wire and cable, which rose by 2% to 65% [3]. Company Performance - Focus on the company Jiaozuo Wanfang, which reported record high performance for 2025, achieving a revenue of 6.495 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.46%, and a net profit of 1.071 billion yuan, up 81.95% year-on-year. The company is also undergoing a significant asset restructuring to enhance its resource security and profitability [6][11]. Stock Recommendations - The report suggests a positive outlook for both gold and aluminum sectors, recommending specific companies such as China Hongqiao, Hongchuang Holdings, and Jiaozuo Wanfang for investment consideration [12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for the automotive industry, indicating that the sentiment has reached an inflection point and AIDC remains a key investment direction [3][4]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the terminal sales of passenger vehicles and the complete vehicle sector have shown signs of recovery, with new car price increases being recognized by some investors as a counter to rising raw material costs. Additionally, the increase in oil and gas prices has contributed to a positive shift in investment sentiment [3][4]. - The report suggests that the automotive sector is expected to see improved sales, profitability, and exports in March and April, with specific recommendations for companies such as Geely, BYD, and Jianghuai Automotive [6][10]. Data Tracking - In February, new energy vehicle deliveries showed varied performance, with BYD delivering 190,190 units (down 41.1% year-on-year), while NIO saw a significant increase of 57.6% year-on-year with 20,797 units delivered [5][20]. - Traditional automakers also reported significant sales changes, with SAIC Motor leading with 269,000 units sold (down 8.6% year-on-year) [5][21]. - The average discount rate in the industry increased to 9.3%, with a discount amount of 20,940 yuan, reflecting a slight year-on-year decrease [5][7]. Industry News - The report notes that the average price of lithium carbonate in Q1 2026 reached 154,227 yuan per ton, marking a 103% year-on-year increase [9]. - The automotive export figures for February showed a significant growth of 52.4% year-on-year, with a total of 672,000 vehicles exported [10][26]. - The report mentions that the capital restructuring plan of Dongfeng Motor Corporation was approved, allowing it to privatize and list its high-end electric vehicle brand, Lantu, on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [26].