| | 2025A | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万) | 6,265 | 6,959 | 7,671 | 8,449 | | 同比增速(%) | -8.4% | 11.1% | 10.2% | 10.2% | | 归母净利润(百万) | 783 | 862 | 972 | 1,099 | | 同比增速(%) | 19.8% | 10.2% | 12.7% | 13.1% | | 每股盈利(元) | 0.46 | 0.51 | 0.57 | 0.65 | | 市盈率(倍) | 25 | 22 | 20 | 18 | | 市净率(倍) | 1.7 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 证 券 研 究 报 告 汤臣倍健（300146）2025 年报点评 中性（维持） 经营边际修复，关注调整进展 目标价：12.5 元 事项： 公司发布 2025 年报。25 年全年实现营收 62.65 亿元，同比-8.38%；归母净利 润 7.82 亿元，同比+19.81%；扣非归母净利润 6.86 亿元，同比+9.49%。单 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 23 yuan [2]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 11.233 billion yuan for 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 5.33%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 731 million yuan, up 35.98% year-on-year, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items reached 774 million yuan, a 33.76% increase [2][3]. - In Q4 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 2.8 billion yuan, reflecting an 11.28% year-on-year growth, and a net profit of 108 million yuan, which is a significant increase of 69.29% year-on-year [2][3]. - The company has shown resilience in its operations, with strong performance in low-temperature dairy products and a recovery in room-temperature products, leading to a robust revenue growth in Q4 2025 despite a challenging market environment [2][7]. Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2025 was 11,233 million yuan, with projected revenues of 12,110 million yuan in 2026, 12,874 million yuan in 2027, and 13,611 million yuan in 2028 [3][13]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025 was 731 million yuan, with forecasts of 867 million yuan for 2026, 1,003 million yuan for 2027, and 1,145 million yuan for 2028 [3][13]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 was 0.85 yuan, expected to rise to 1.01 yuan in 2026, 1.17 yuan in 2027, and 1.33 yuan in 2028 [3][13]. - The company’s price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 22 times in 2025 to 14 times by 2028, indicating a potential increase in valuation as earnings grow [3][13]. Operational Performance - The company’s low-temperature yogurt segment achieved over 30% growth, while the overall liquid milk gross margin improved by 0.82 percentage points year-on-year [2][7]. - The company’s asset-liability ratio at the end of 2025 was 56.5%, a decrease of 8.1 percentage points year-on-year, indicating improved financial stability [2][7]. - The report highlights the successful launch of new products and the expansion of distribution channels as key drivers of revenue growth, with expectations for continued acceleration in 2026 [2][7].

债券研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【债券周报】 转债估值回落的拆解与历史借鉴 ——可转债周报 20260322 问题一：近期为什么转债估值压缩如此激烈？ 2026 年春节前后的估值潮汐只是历史的又一次复演，但本次由于股市的春季 躁动演绎也整体靠前使得与转债资金面变化相对同步，进一步放大了本轮估值 及转债指数的振幅，所以显得这轮调整如此激烈，从固收+基金的净申赎强度 与可转债 ETF 的净申赎份额变化也基本印证了前述观点。 问题二：本轮估值压缩有何结构特征？ 平价结构：偏债及平衡高位维持，偏股及高价回落至 1 月初附近。70-90 平价 回落至约 2 月 9 日左右水平，90-110 平价回落至约 1 月 19 日左右水平，110- 130 平价回落至约为 025 年 12 月 22 日左右水平，平价大于 130 元者回落至约 1 月 2 日左右水平。期限结构：次新券如期大幅回落，临期调整也不小。上市 不满 1 年的转债估值较 3 月 2 日回落至约 1 月 15 日左右水平；剩余期限不足 1 年者估值回到约 12 月 15 日左右水平。 问题三：历史上估值压缩有何借鉴？ 回顾历史上估值调整超过 1 个月且估值 ...

保险行业周报（20260316-20260320） 证 券 研 究 报 告 新能源车车险自主定价系数范围或已进一步 推荐（维持） 放开，COR 加速优化在即 新能源车车险自主定价系数范围变动点评： 据每经网称，行业已于 3 月 6 日左右完成新一轮新能源车险自主定价系数调 整，由[0.6，1.4]扩围至[0.55，1.45]。 随着新能源车渗透率逐步提升，新能源车车险重要性亦逐步拔高。当前车险行 业进入增速"瓶颈期"，近三年车险增速在 3-6%区间。从汽车市场销量数据来 看，新能源车销量持续显著领先于整体车险，预计将构成后续车险增长的核心 动力。 但由于新能源车零配件成本与车辆一体化程度较高、驾驶人年轻化、经验积累 相对不足等，新能源车车险赔付端面临较大压力，当前行业普遍呈现亏损状态， 仅头部在家用车经营上或能实现承保盈利。从理论来看，高赔付应该倒逼定价 上移，即实现风险充分定价。但长期以来受自主定价系数范围约束，新能源车、 尤其部分高风险车型明显定价不足。此次据每经网称监管上下打开 0.05 的定 价空间，或有助于提高定价充分程度，部分缓解险企新能源车车险经营压力。 人身险标的 PEV 估值： A 股：国寿 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 传媒行业周观察（20260316-20260320) 模型调用量加速增长，游戏景气度向上，多板块估 推荐（维持） 值进入布局区间，关注边际逻辑拐点 【市场观点】 港股互联网：重视防御属性与基本面拐点，大市值平台承压震荡。从个股看， 涨幅情况：金蝶国际（5.61%）/美团-W（4.21%）/蔚来-SW（3.84%）/东方甄 选（3.1%）/比亚迪电子（2.78%）领涨。小鹏汽车-W（-9.37%）/快手-W（-9.04%） /中芯国际（-8.52%）/阅文集团（-7.73%）/腾讯控股（-7.21%）领跌。 【投资建议】 行业研究 传媒 2026 年 03 月 22 日 证券分析师：姚蕾 邮箱：yaolei@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360525120007 证券分析师：丁子然 邮箱：dingziran@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360525120009 行业基本数据 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数(只) | 138 | 0.02 | | 总市值(亿元) | 17,943.26 | 1.45 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 16 ...

行业研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 消费者服务行业周报（20260316-20260320） "春假+清明"接力释放出行需求，政策激发文旅消 推荐（维持） 费活力 消费者服务 2026 年 03 月 22 日 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：饶临风 邮箱：raolinfeng@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360525080002 证券分析师：曹锦瑜 邮箱：caojinyu@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360525100001 | % | 1M | 6M | 12M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 绝对表现 | -7.7% | -0.7% | 9.2% | | 相对表现 | -6.9% | -20.3% | -9.9% | -11% 0% 11% 22% 25/03 25/06 25/08 25/10 26/01 26/03 2025-03-24~2026-03-20 消费者服务 沪深300 相关研究报告 《社服行业 2025 年中期投资策略：供需两端酝酿 新变，关注线下重塑、AI 应用、体验消费三条主 线》 行业基本数据 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | - ...

❖ 黄金科创受制于流动性，周期受制于风险偏好 近期美债收益率因油价推升通胀预期而大幅上行，宏观流动性趋紧背景下，利 率敏感型资产承压：黄金因持有机会成本上升而回调；科创板块受融资环境与 估值压制明显调整。周期资源品回落则更多源于风险偏好受抑，市场对滞胀与 产业链冲击的担忧升温。当前市场调整主要反映风险偏好收缩，而非基本面恶 化。近期微观流动性走弱可能短期加剧情绪波动，但难改指数中期趋势。 策略研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【华创策略】 布局良机，结构胜仓位 ——策略周聚焦 ❖ PPI 转正推升 26 年 A 股业绩上修 我们对牛市延续乐观态度，核心在于基本面改善将消化当前估值。历史经验表 明，A 股盈利周期与 PPI 高度相关，PPI 上行期将带动周期资源品和制造业利 润回升，近五年两类行业合计利润占全 A 非金融的 45%，是盈利主要驱动力。 我们认为无需过度担忧 PPI 转正对利润的挤压：上游资源品将直接受益，中游 的电子、电新等行业亦能传导成本压力。我们上修 26 年 A 股非金融净利润同 比预期，从中性假设下 11%至乐观假设下的 17%。此外，近期全 A 26E 业绩 预期保持稳定，近四周业绩上修/ ...

宏观研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【每周经济观察】第 63 期 水泥发运明显回升 每周经济观察： （一）景气向上 1、水泥发运率明显改善。截至 3 月 20 日，水泥发运率为 30.6%，较 3 月 13 日回升 11 个点，较去年公历低 7.6 个百分点，较去年农历同期高 3 个点。 2、价格：油价继续上涨。布油收于 112.2 美元/桶，上涨 8.8%。 （二）景气向下 1、耐用品消费：维持负增长。3 月前 15 日，全国乘用车市场零售同比下降 21.3%。2 月同比下降 25.4%。1 月乘用车零售同比下降 13.9%。 2、节后工地复工：据百年建筑网，截至 3 月 18 日（农历正月三十），全国 201 家建筑施工头部企业 10692 个工地开复工率为 62%，环比提升 19.5 个百分点， 农历同比下降 2.62 个百分点。 3、出口：港口集装箱吞吐量同比增速继续回落。截至 3 月 15 日当周，我国港 口集装箱吞吐量环比增长 9.3%，上周为 1.4%，年初至今累计同比增速维持在 11%，与上周持平，去年同期为 10.5%；3 月 15 日四周同比增速进一步降至 2.5%，去年同期为 16.5%。 ...

行业研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 石油石化行业周报 上游油气开采景气度上升，下游仍需时间消 推荐（维持） 化原料上涨 石油石化 2026 年 03 月 23 日 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：孙维容 邮箱：sunweirong@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360526020001 证券分析师：邹骏程 邮箱：zoujuncheng@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360526030001 证券分析师：李妍 邮箱：liyan3@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360526030005 行业基本数据 -10% 15% 39% 64% 25/03 25/06 25/08 25/10 26/01 26/03 2025-03-24~2026-03-20 石油石化 沪深300 证监会审核华创证券投资咨询业务资格批文号：证监许可（2009）1210 号 油价中枢上移炼能格局优化，中长期油气和石化景气持续上行。1）短期：油 价剧烈波动，产业链再平衡。油价大幅波动导致下游由补库转观望，石化产品 有价无市、成交偏弱；下游持续去库、上游被动累库，行业进入库存再平衡阶 段。2）中期：下游库存低位，涨价弹性可期。石化历经三年下行 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In late Q1, institutional behavior in the bond market has changed. The allocation disk has strong buying power, while funds and wealth management products are relatively weak. The "fixed - income +" products are facing significant redemption pressure, and the bond market strategy focuses on short - term 3 - 5y term spread compression and long - term opportunities after over - decline [1][3][4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 First Quarter: Characteristics of Bond Buying by Various Institutions 3.1.1 Overall Bond Buying by Institutions in Q1: Strong Allocation Disk, Weak Funds and Wealth Management - **Allocation Disk**: Large banks significantly increased net purchases of government bonds over 5y. Small and medium - sized banks increased net purchases of 30y government bonds and 20y local bonds. Insurance companies, driven by dividend - paying insurance, included 3 - 5y Tier 2 and perpetual bonds in their top five holdings [13]. - **Trading Disk**: Securities firms' net purchases were in line with seasonality, with a significant reduction in duration, more allocation to 1y interest rates and Tier 2 and perpetual bonds, and reduction of ultra - long bonds. Funds still focused on credit coupons, increasing the proportion of 1 - 5y credit and Tier 2 and perpetual bonds [13]. - **Bank Wealth Management**: In Q1, due to the priority of "deposit rush" tasks in the banking system, the scale growth of bank wealth management was weak, and the net purchases of direct investment and entrusted investment in the secondary market both increased less. In terms of structure, direct investment shortened the term, and entrusted investment increased the exploration of spreads in policy - financial bonds [14]. 3.1.2 By Institution: Insurance Enters the Allocation Window at the End of the Quarter, and Wealth Management Will Follow in Q2 - **Banks**: They have a strong demand for long - term bonds. At the end of the quarter, the pressure to realize profits is not large, and there is still a need for bond allocation in the future [18]. - **Insurance**: The "good start" funds entered the allocation window in March, and the bond - allocation progress is slower than last year, with potential for further allocation. Attention should be paid to the spread compression opportunities of ultra - long local bonds in Q2 [23]. - **Funds**: From the end of Q1 to Q2, there is usually a seasonal recovery in bond - buying power. In Q2, it is conducive to the spread compression of policy - financial bonds [25][28]. - **Wealth Management**: It is expected to see scale growth and a peak season for bond allocation in Q2. Attention can be paid to the spread compression opportunities of Tier 2 and perpetual bonds [29]. - **Securities Firms**: They continue to short - sell 30y government bonds and start to buy 50y government bonds [30]. 3.2 "Fixed - Income +" Redemption: How Big Is the Pressure? 3.2.1 Recent "Fixed - Income +" Redemption: Greater Pressure than in November 2025 and January 2026, Close to the Russia - Ukraine Conflict Period - In March, the equity market declined, and the Shanghai Composite Index fell below 4000 points, leading to a significant increase in the redemption pressure of "fixed - income +" funds. The redemption pressure is stronger than in the previous two rounds and is close to that during the Russia - Ukraine conflict [34][41]. 3.2.2 When Will the Redemption Ease? Pay Attention to the Policy - making Layer's Expectations for Market Stability and the Use of Tools - The central bank recently held a party committee meeting, showing an earlier demand to maintain the stable operation of the stock market. Looking back at the situation after the Russia - Ukraine conflict in 2022, relevant meetings and policies helped stabilize the market. The central bank has innovated a series of financial policies to support the stable operation of the capital market. In the future, attention should be paid to the changes in the "claims on other financial corporations" item [43][44][47]. 3.3 Bond Market Strategy: Focus on 3 - 5y Term Spread Compression in the Short - Term and Seize Opportunities after Over - Decline in the Long - Term 3.3.1 This Week: α Spread Compression for Bonds within 5y - This week, the short - term bonds performed well. The certificate of deposit (CD) yield dropped close to 1.5%, driving the α spread compression of bonds within 5y [48]. 3.3.2 Short - Term: Limited Downward Space for 1y Bonds, Potential for Continuous Compression of 3 - 5y Spreads - The space for 1y short - term leverage to capture interest rate spreads has been extremely compressed, and the focus of bond selection may shift to 3 - 5y bonds. CDs may fluctuate at a low level of 1.5 - 1.55% in the short term, and attention should be paid to the marginal changes in funds at the end of the quarter [51][56]. 3.3.3 Long - Term: 10y Government Bonds to Fluctuate between 1.8% - 1.85%, 30y Government Bonds' Sentiment to Stabilize, Pay Attention to Over - Decline Recovery - **10y Government Bonds**: It is expected to fluctuate in a narrow range of 1.8% - 1.85%. It is recommended to hold existing assets and gradually increase positions for incremental funds if the yield continues to rise. - **30y Government Bonds**: The core fluctuation range of the 30 - 10y active bond spread may be 40 - 50bp. Traders can pay attention to trading opportunities when the spread widens to over 50bp, and allocators can gradually enter the market when the 30y government bond yield rises above 2.3%. Attention can also be paid to the spread - mining value of 4 - 5y China Development Bank bonds, 10y China Development Bank bonds, and 20y local bonds [57][60][61]. 3.4 Interest - Rate Bond Market Review: CDs Hit a New Low, and the Yield Curve Steepened - **Funding**: The central bank's open - market operations (OMO) had a net injection, and the funding situation was balanced and loose [76]. - **Primary Issuance**: The net financing of government bonds and local bonds increased, while that of policy - financial bonds and inter - bank CDs decreased [80]. - **Benchmark Changes**: The term spreads of government bonds and China Development Bank bonds both widened [86].