证 券 研 究 报 告 宁德时代（300750）2025 年报点评 强推（维持） 25 年业绩大超预期，26 年迎扩产高增长 目标价：515.63 元 事项： 评论： [ReportFinancialIndex] 主要财务指标 | | 2025A | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万) | 423,702 | 624,137 | 769,231 | 934,580 | | 同比增速(%) | 17.0% | 47.3% | 23.2% | 21.5% | | 归母净利润(百万) | 72,201 | 94,131 | 117,187 | 142,634 | | 同比增速(%) | 42.3% | 30.4% | 24.5% | 21.7% | | 每股盈利(元) | 15.82 | 20.63 | 25.68 | 31.25 | | 市盈率(倍) | 25 | 19 | 15 | 13 | | 市净率(倍) | 5.4 | 4.6 | 3.9 | 3.3 | 资料来源：公司公告，华创证券预测 注：股价为 202 ...

港股公司 ❖ 根据公司未经审核综合管理账目及现有数据的初步评估，预计截至 2025 年 12 月 31 日年度，公司股东应占利润较 2024 年同期的人民币 15.96 亿元下降约 95%。 评论： [主要财务指标 Indicator_FinchinaSimpleHK] | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万元) | 158,546 | 143,229 | 129,314 | 108,330 | | 同比增速(%) | 20.7% | -9.7% | -9.7% | -16.2% | | 归母净利润(百万元) | 1,596 | 92 | 547 | 580 | | 同比增速(%) | -48.4% | -94.2% | 493.5% | 6.2% | | 每股盈利(元) | 0.63 | 0.04 | 0.22 | 0.23 | | 市盈率(倍) | 15 | 252 | 43 | 40 | | 市净率(倍) | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 资料来源：公司公告，华创证券预 ...

港股公司 证 券 研 究 报 告 绿城中国（03900.HK）2025 年盈利警告点评 推荐（维持） ❖ 根据公司未经审核综合管理账目及现有数据的初步评估，预计截至 2025 年 12 月 31 日年度，公司股东应占利润较 2024 年同期的人民币 15.96 亿元下降约 95%。 评论： [主要财务指标 Indicator_FinchinaSimpleHK] | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万元) | 158,546 | 143,229 | 129,314 | 108,330 | | 同比增速(%) | 20.7% | -9.7% | -9.7% | -16.2% | | 归母净利润(百万元) | 1,596 | 92 | 547 | 580 | | 同比增速(%) | -48.4% | -94.2% | 493.5% | 6.2% | | 每股盈利(元) | 0.63 | 0.04 | 0.22 | 0.23 | | 市盈率(倍) | 15 | 252 | 43 | 40 | | 市净 ...

| | 2025A | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万) | 423,702 | 624,137 | 769,231 | 934,580 | | 同比增速(%) | 17.0% | 47.3% | 23.2% | 21.5% | | 归母净利润(百万) | 72,201 | 94,131 | 117,187 | 142,634 | | 同比增速(%) | 42.3% | 30.4% | 24.5% | 21.7% | | 每股盈利(元) | 15.82 | 20.63 | 25.68 | 31.25 | | 市盈率(倍) | 25 | 19 | 15 | 13 | | 市净率(倍) | 5.4 | 4.6 | 3.9 | 3.3 | 证 券 研 究 报 告 宁德时代（300750）2025 年报点评 强推（维持） 25 年业绩大超预期，26 年迎扩产高增长 目标价：515.63 元 事项： 评论： [ReportFinancialIndex] 主要财务指标 资料来源：公司公告，华创证券预测 注：股价为 202 ...

Core Insights - The current liquidity remains relatively abundant, with the CSI 1000 index outperforming the overall market since the beginning of the year, increasing by 10.1% compared to 6.9% for the Wind All A and 1.6% for the CSI 300 [2][12] - Expectations for GDP deflation index to turn positive this year, coupled with strengthened policy support for technological innovation, are likely to restore risk appetite for growth sectors [2][19] - Corporate earnings are expected to continue recovering throughout the year, with the CSI 1000 showing greater fundamental elasticity [3][12] Group 1: Earnings Recovery and Market Dynamics - The current environment of abundant liquidity has led to a preference for small-cap growth stocks, with the CSI 1000 index showing a significant increase since the beginning of the year [14] - Historical trends suggest that monetary easing may lead to a return of inflation, which could positively impact corporate earnings, with an expected growth rate of 11%-17% for non-financial net profits in the entire A-share market in 2026 [3][23] Group 2: Investment Value Analysis of CSI 1000 Index - Valuation comparison indicates that the CSI 1000 index is at a medium level among major broad-based indices, with a price-to-earnings ratio of 50.8 times, which is at the 84th percentile over the past decade [4][30] - The industry distribution shows a strong focus on technology and growth sectors, with significant weights in TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) and high-end manufacturing [5][33] - The CSI 1000 index has historically outperformed the CSI 300 and CSI 800, with a cumulative return of 115% since 2010, although it is slightly lower than the Wind All A index [6][42] Group 3: Performance and Growth Expectations - The expected net profit growth rate for the CSI 1000 in 2026 is projected to be 25%, significantly higher than the overall market's 18.9% [7][46] - Recent improvements in earnings have been noted, with the CSI 1000's net profit growth recovering from a decline of -20% in Q4 2024 to -1.8% in Q3 2025 [7][46] - The CSI 1000 index's fundamental elasticity is expected to be greater during the earnings upcycle, making it a more attractive investment option [7][46] Group 4: Example of Investment Tool - The GF CSI 1000 ETF (560010) is designed to closely track the CSI 1000 index, providing investors with a tool for exposure to small-cap companies [8][47]

证 券 研 究 报 告 丽珠集团（000513）深度研究报告 强推（首次） 创新转型收获，国产制药领导者迎新阶段 [ReportFinancialIndex] 主要财务指标 | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万) | 11,812 | 11,879 | 11,931 | 13,318 | | 同比增速(%) | -5.0% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 11.6% | | 归母净利润(百万) | 2,061 | 2,022 | 2,078 | 2,378 | | 同比增速(%) | 5.5% | -1.9% | 2.8% | 14.4% | | 每股盈利(元) | 2.32 | 2.28 | 2.34 | 2.68 | | 市盈率(倍) | 15 | 15 | 15 | 13 | | 市净率(倍) | 2.2 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 资料来源：公司公告，华创证券预测 注：股价为 2026 年 3 月 12 日收盘价 公司研究 化学制剂 2026 年 03 月 13 日 | ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 丽珠集团（000513）深度研究报告 强推（首次） 创新转型收获，国产制药领导者迎新阶段 [ReportFinancialIndex] 主要财务指标 | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万) | 11,812 | 11,879 | 11,931 | 13,318 | | 同比增速(%) | -5.0% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 11.6% | | 归母净利润(百万) | 2,061 | 2,022 | 2,078 | 2,378 | | 同比增速(%) | 5.5% | -1.9% | 2.8% | 14.4% | | 每股盈利(元) | 2.32 | 2.28 | 2.34 | 2.68 | | 市盈率(倍) | 15 | 15 | 15 | 13 | | 市净率(倍) | 2.2 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 资料来源：公司公告，华创证券预测 注：股价为 2026 年 3 月 12 日收盘价 公司研究 化学制剂 2026 年 03 月 13 日 | ...

行业研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 华创农业 3 月 USDA 农产品跟踪报告 USDA 上调全球玉米产量预测，下调全球大 推荐（维持） 豆产量预测 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：张皓月 2026-02-23 《动保行业 1 月跟踪报告：1 月多数疫苗品种批 签发均同比下降，兽药 VPI 指数连续 3 个月环比 下行》 邮箱：zhanghaoyue@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360524070009 证券分析师：陈鹏 电话：021-20572579 邮箱：chenpeng1@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360521080002 行业基本数据 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数(只) | 101 | 0.01 | | 总市值(亿元) | 15,149.23 | 1.17 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 11,821.37 | 1.14 | 相对指数表现 | % | 1M | 6M | 12M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 绝对表现 | 7.6% | 0.9% | 26.5% | | 相对表现 | 8.2% | -2.7% | 7.2 ...

Group 1: Inflation Data Overview - The U.S. CPI for February remained stable at 2.4%, matching expectations, while core CPI held at 2.5%[20] - Month-on-month CPI increased by 0.3%, in line with forecasts, and core CPI rose by 0.2%[20] - Super core service CPI increased from 2.7% to 2.8% year-on-year[20] Group 2: Future Inflation Expectations - CPI is expected to rise to around 3% in March and maintain approximately 3.1% in Q2, with core CPI slightly increasing to 2.7%[9] - High oil prices, projected to average $90 per barrel in Q2-Q3, could lead to a 14% increase in gasoline prices, significantly impacting CPI[9] - The delayed impact of last year's government shutdown on rent statistics will affect CPI calculations in April, as rent data will reflect four months instead of two[3] Group 3: Market Reactions and Interest Rate Expectations - Market expectations for interest rate cuts have decreased, with the number of anticipated cuts dropping from 1.545 to 1.19[4] - The first expected interest rate cut has been pushed from September to December due to rising oil prices[4] - Financial markets are currently pricing in stable long-term inflation expectations, with only a 0-10 basis point increase observed since late February[17]

宏观研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【宏观快评】美国 2 月 CPI 数据点评 "油价→通胀预期"是关键 主要观点 美国通胀或再度回升，2-3 季度可能维持在相对高位 2 月通胀温和，完全符合预期。CPI 同比持平于 2.4%，预期 2.4%；核心 CPI 同 比持平于 2.5%，预期 2.5%；超级核心服务 CPI 同比从 2.7%升至 2.8%。CPI 环 比 0.3%，预期 0.3%，前值 0.2%；核心 CPI 环比 0.2%，预期 0.2%，前值 0.3%。 预计美国通胀或将从下个月开始回升。预计 3 月份 CPI 同比或升至 3%左右， Q2 维持在 3.1%左右，核心 CPI 同比在 Q2 回升小幅升至 2.7%。8-9 月份通胀 或逐步回落。影响上述走势的因素如下： 一是油价的冲击。假设油价在 Q2-Q3 维持在 90 美金/桶左右，即时影响是 3 月 美国汽油零售价或上涨 14%左右，带动 CPI 同比跳升至 3%。 二是去年政府关门对房租统计带来的滞后影响。政府关门导致去年 10 月 CPI 数据无法收集，美国劳工部直接用前值对 10 月数据进行填充，其余商品和服 务的价格在后续调查中得以修 ...