研究员：惠祥凤 执业证书号：S0990513100001 联系电话：0755-83007028 Email：huixf@ydzq.sgcc.com.cn 第 2 页 第 4 页 第 6 页 第 7 页 | --- | --- | |-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|--------------------------------------------------------------------------| | 【A股大势研判】 | | | 两市成交额重回万亿， A 股修复行情有望延续 | | | 一、上周五市场回顾 | | | | 周五晨早短信提醒，周四沪深三大指数窄幅震荡，成交萎缩下，市场活跃度下降。 | | 4 月份还有 3 | 个交易日，随着业绩公布的逐步接近尾声，业绩干扰对股价和市场产生影 | | 响总体进入尾声。昨天有 ...

第 3 页 断夯实经济的修复。4 月 30 日，在新"国九条"对加强退市监管的指引下，沪深证券交 易所修订完善并正式发布相关退市规则。我们认为，主营业务缺乏竞争力、伪成长的中 小市值个股及大部分 ST 股将继续被边缘化，翻身的机会比较渺茫，投资者尽量规避。随 着成交的放量，市场信心逐步回暖，A 股修复行情仍有望延续，结构性机会仍重于总量， 全面性的牛市或许仍需等待。另外，五一假期，港股大涨+人民币升值+美联储降息预期 升温的多重利好刺激下，节后 A 股有望上涨。仅供参考。 金点策略晨报—每周报告 2024 年 5 月 6 日 星期一 | --- | |---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | | | 煤炭、电力、银行、酿酒与医药等板块集体拉升，助力大盘再创反转新高，不过，周一 | | 大涨的房地产及券商出现调整。午后，三大指数继续弱势震荡。 | | 全天看，行业方面，化学制药、中药、家电、生物制品、包装材料、公用事业、 | | 食品饮料 ...

1.我国内需走弱程度超预期； 2.美国宏观经济下滑幅度超预期。 1.英大证券 2022 年度宏观经济与大类资产 配置：5.5%引领投资与金融，油铜冲高，金 猪蓄势，债强股不弱（20220119） 2.英大证券 2021 年度宏观经济与大类资产 配置：经济"上"，货币"稳"，有色、原 油、A 股"优"（20210111） 报告概要： 四、落实好大规模设备更新助推制造业投资增速，消费增速还面临一定制 约因素； | --- | --- | |----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-------| | | | | 一、生产力与生产关系之间的矛盾，需要通过改革与开放来解决 ........................................................................................... ...

Market Overview - The report indicates that the Chinese economy shows resilience, with GDP growth expected to stabilize around 5% in 2024, supported by proactive fiscal policies and a focus on stabilizing the real estate market [5][6][9] - The liquidity in the market is expected to remain reasonable and abundant, with a potential for further easing of financing costs [3][17] Stock Market Dynamics - The report highlights that the valuation of blue-chip stocks (CSI 300) remains historically low, suggesting potential for upward adjustment as corporate earnings recover [3][4] - Demand for stocks is influenced by various factors, including personal investor funds, public and private fund flows, and foreign capital inflows, with expectations of increased net inflows from northbound capital as economic recovery strengthens [3][4][5] IPO and Financing Environment - The report notes a significant slowdown in IPO activities, with stricter regulatory measures in place to enhance the quality of listed companies, leading to a decrease in the number of companies applying for IPOs [3][4] - The refinancing environment is also tightening, with a noticeable reduction in the scale of refinancing activities and stricter regulations on share reductions by major shareholders [3][4] Economic Indicators - The report discusses the PMI data, indicating fluctuations in manufacturing activity, with expectations for a rebound in manufacturing PMI as economic conditions improve [6][9] - Consumer price index (CPI) trends show a low inflation environment, with expectations for gradual recovery in price levels as economic activity picks up [7][9] Monetary Policy Outlook - The report outlines a monetary policy stance that is expected to remain flexible and moderately accommodative, with potential for further interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions [17][19] - The coordination between fiscal and monetary policies is emphasized as crucial for balancing short-term economic growth and long-term structural optimization [17][19]

Group 1: Market Overview - The market is experiencing short-term fluctuations, with high-performing stocks expected to become the main focus [5] - The overall market performance is weak, with a notable decline in speculative stocks, despite some strength in cyclical stocks [5][7] - The A-share market is entering a reporting season, which may exert pressure on certain thematic stocks, necessitating caution against pure speculation [6][7] Group 2: Sector Performance - Gold and silver stocks have surged due to rising gold prices, driven by expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and increased geopolitical tensions [6][7] - The electricity sector is performing well, supported by government initiatives to promote wind power projects in rural areas [6][7] - Other sectors such as engineering consulting, electronic chemicals, and consumer electronics have seen declines, indicating a mixed performance across industries [6] Group 3: Investment Strategy - There are structural opportunities in April, particularly in sectors with strong earnings and high return on equity (ROE) [7] - Focusing on high-quality stocks with sustainable performance and cash flow is recommended as a strategy during this period [7][8] - The report emphasizes the importance of selecting stocks with high earnings visibility and consistent outperformance in specific sub-sectors [7]

| --- | --- | |------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|--------------------------------------------------------| | | | | 策对全球资本流动的影响还是会引发市场的担忧。 | | | 周二沪深三大指数震荡调整，北向资金净卖出 70 | 亿元。春节以来指数持续的上 | | 行后，板块的持续性在衰减，近期轮动明显加快。大盘在这个位置，市场有分歧，总体 | | | 看，我们认为多方积极因素提振下，行情并没结束，短期或有震荡，不影响中期回升的 趋势。 | | | 操作上，虽然难度加大，但机会仍然很多。不追涨杀跌，逢低配置低估值红利股 | | | 和绩优科技成长股。另外，新能源赛道股及医药等消费类白马股也可择机低吸。战略投 资者仍可持仓观望，短线博弈者，踏准轮动节奏，高抛低吸。 【晨早参 ...

研究员：惠祥凤 执业证书号：S0990513100001 联系电话：0755-83007028 Email：huixf@ydzq.sgcc.com.cn 第 1 页 金点策略晨报—每周报告 2024 年 3 月 4 日 星期一 | --- | --- | |---------------------------------------------------------------------------------|--------------------------------------------------------------------------| | 【A股大势研判】 | | | 3000 点后市场仍有望震荡上行，逢低配置红利股及绩优科技股 | | | 一、上周五市场回顾 | | | 周五晨早短信提醒， 2 | 月收官，沪深三大指数月线均收涨。目前市场仍处于操作 | | 周期，仍然是结构性、阶段性机会占优。操作上，不追涨杀跌，逢低配置低估值红利股 | | | （银行、石油石化、港口营运、煤炭、电力、水务、燃气、公路等领域）和绩优科技成 | | | 长股（ AI | 产业链、数字经济产业链、 ...

1 2 季度 CPI 均值大概率高于 1 季度，2024 年 PPI 大幅上行概率 较低 ——1 月通胀数据解读 | --- | --- | |-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...