英大证券研究所证券研究报告 观点： 总量视角 【A 股大势研判】 周二晨报提醒，虽然周一 A 股延续强势，不过，仍存结构性隐忧。驱动行情 的是"政策预期"与"情绪修复"，而非扎实的"基本面改善"。上行中可能还有震荡， 市场走势如我们预期，周二沪深三大指数涨跌不一，个股涨少跌多，整体维持弱 势震荡格局。 金 点 策 略 晨 报 2025 年 12 月 10 日 密切关注两大因素 分析师：惠祥凤 执业证书编号：S0990513100001 电话：0755-83007028 邮箱：huixf@ydzq.sgcc.com.cn 密切跟踪美联储议息会议与国内重要会议的进展，根据政策信号动态调整持 仓结构：若出现超预期利好，可适度提升仓位参与结构性机会；若政策不及预期 或海外风险升温，则应进一步收缩防线，聚焦核心资产。 操作上，轻指数，重个股。踏准板块轮动节奏，采取均衡配置、高抛低吸或 是占优策略。无论是科技成长方向（半导体芯片、泛 AI 主题及机器人行业等）， 还是顺周期行业（光伏、电池、储能、化工、煤炭、有色等），亦或是红利股（银 行、公用事业、"大象股"等），尽量选择有业绩支持的标的逢低布局，远离缺乏业 绩支撑的高 ...

英大证券研究所证券研究报告 金 点 策 略 晨 报 2025 年 12 月 9 日 多重合力助推 A 股上行，但仍存结构性隐忧 分析师：惠祥凤 执业证书编号：S0990513100001 电话：0755-83007028 邮箱：huixf@ydzq.sgcc.com.cn 观点： 总量视角 【A 股大势研判】 上周五沪深三大指数大涨，沪指成功收复 3900 点整数关口。本周一 A 股延 续强势，其中创业板指在科技股引领下一度大涨超过 3%。盘面上看，市场驱动力 主要以 AI 算力为首的硬科技赛道，CPO、光模块概念强势，资金再次追捧人工智 能产业链。两市成交额重返 2 万亿。 周一市场上行，主要有以下几个方面的利好：一是监管层调低保险公司在沪 深 300、中证红利、科创板股票投资风险因子 10%，这一举措有望为 A 股市场带 来千亿级别的增量资金，进一步充实市场流动性（数据来源：第一财经）；二是 拓宽券商资本空间与杠杆上限，有助于提高券商资本利用效率，相当于为行业适 当加杠杆，增强市场交易活跃度和中介服务能力；三是公募基金强化长期业绩导 向，提高跟投比例并根据业绩基准调整薪资，这一制度优化将显著加强管理人与 ...

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index successfully reclaimed the 3900-point mark, driven by strong performance in insurance and brokerage stocks, although overall market participation remains low with a trading volume of approximately 1.7 trillion yuan [1][15] - Key upcoming events include the Federal Reserve's meeting on December 10, which may influence global liquidity expectations, and an important domestic meeting that will set the tone for China's economic policy in the coming year [1][15] Sector Performance - The CPO (Co-packaged optics) sector saw significant gains, driven by increased demand for high-speed data transmission components in AI data centers [7] - The non-ferrous metals sector experienced a surge, supported by new demand opportunities in aluminum due to the global data center construction boom and potential supply constraints [8] - The commercial aerospace sector continued its upward trend, bolstered by recent policy clarifications and significant market potential following the establishment of dedicated regulatory bodies [9] - The robotics industry remains active, with substantial growth observed since early January, supported by strong internal growth dynamics and favorable government policies [10] - The consumer electronics sector showed signs of activity, with a focus on innovative products such as smart home devices and wearable technology [11] - The industrial mother machine concept gained traction, benefiting from government support for high-precision manufacturing and technology development [12] - Financial stocks, particularly brokerages and insurance companies, rallied due to positive regulatory signals aimed at enhancing capital market frameworks [13] Investment Strategy - The report suggests a focus on individual stocks rather than indices, recommending a balanced approach to sector rotation and emphasizing the selection of fundamentally sound stocks while avoiding overvalued ones lacking earnings support [2][16]

6.英大证券宏观评论：汽车类消费增速领 先石油及制品类，尚需进一步推出提振房 地产投资增速的政策（20250528） 英大证券证券研究报告 首席经济学家：郑后成 执业证书编号：S0990521090001 电话：0755-83008511 邮箱：houchengzheng@163.com 1.英大证券宏观评论：2026 年我国 CPI 同比大概率高于 2025 年（20251124） 2.英大证券宏观评论：2026 年我国外汇储 备大概率在3.3万亿美元基础上稳步上行 （20251110） 3.英大证券宏观评论：高水平科技引领发 展新质生产力，明后两年我国 GDP 增速 预期目标或均为"5.0%左右"（20251030） 4.英大证券宏观评论："适时加力"落在 4 季度概率大于 3 季度，中期我国资本市 场还将保持"回稳向好"势头（20250807） 5.英大证券宏观评论："猪油"共振向下 是 5 月 CPI 当月同比承压主因，6 月我国 PPI 当 月 同 比 大 概 率 还 将 低 位 徘 徊 （20250619） 7.英大证券宏观评论：4 月我国 PPI 同比 与美国 CPI 同比大概率双双下行，美联 ...

英大证券研究所证券研究报告 金 点 策 略 晨 报 2025 年 12 月 5 日 市场或在等待更明确的信号 分析师：惠祥凤 执业证书编号：S0990513100001 电话：0755-83007028 邮箱：huixf@ydzq.sgcc.com.cn 观点： 总量视角 【A 股大势研判】 周四沪深三大指数涨跌不一，虽然深成指及创指上涨，但个股涨少跌多。盘 中虽数次探底回升，但在整体成交量萎缩的制约下，反弹显得绵软无力。盘面上 看，近期热点轮动快且杂乱，市场陷入一种缺乏领涨主线的观望状态。 一、周四市场综述 关注以下两个关键的时点：一是 12 月 10 日之后的美联储议息会议。美联储 的议息结果将直接影响全球流动性的预期，若释放鸽派信号，将缓解新兴市场的 资金压力；二是即将召开的重要会议。这两大事件将为市场提供重要的宏观与政 策指引。特别是重要会议，将为中国明年的经济政策定下总基调，是判断政策风 口和主线方向的最权威依据。目前，市场正处于一个关键的政策与数据观察窗口。 投资者的风险偏好普遍受到抑制，"等待更明确的信号"成为主流心态。 整体上看，短期震荡或调整不影响中期向好格局。操作上，轻指数，重个股。 踏准 ...

Group 1 - The report indicates that the A-share market is experiencing a cautious sentiment with insufficient willingness for new capital to enter, leading to accelerated sector rotation and lack of sustainability in trends [3][8] - It emphasizes the importance of two key upcoming events: the Federal Reserve's meeting after December 10, which may influence global liquidity expectations, and an important domestic meeting that will set the tone for China's economic policy for the coming year [3][8] - The report suggests that short-term fluctuations or adjustments do not affect the medium-term positive outlook, recommending a focus on individual stocks rather than indices, and strategies such as balanced allocation and high-low trading [4][9] Group 2 - The coal industry saw significant gains due to strong demand during the heating season and low historical prices for thermal and coking coal, indicating potential for further price increases [7] - The pharmaceutical sector, particularly traditional Chinese medicine and flu-related stocks, showed resilience and is expected to have a rebound due to previous underperformance and ongoing demand driven by an aging population [7][8] - The report advises investors to select stocks with performance support for low-position investments while avoiding high-valuation stocks lacking earnings support [4][9]

Core Viewpoints - The A-share market is likely to remain in a fluctuating but strong pattern in the short term, with pressures above and support below [2][10][13] - Key pressures include weak domestic economic recovery, uncertainties in overseas markets, potential profit-locking by institutions, insufficient willingness of incremental capital to enter, and significant selling pressure near the 4000-point mark [2][10][11] - Support factors include marginal improvements in the domestic economy, expectations for important policy meetings, and a continued loose monetary policy [3][11][12] Market Overview - On the previous Tuesday, the three major indices in Shanghai and Shenzhen experienced a downward trend, failing to continue the recovery from the previous week, with a general decline across the market and reduced trading volume [2][5][10] - The total trading volume on that day was approximately 1.6 trillion yuan, indicating a lack of effective market entry momentum [2][10][12] Sector Analysis - The shipbuilding and military sectors showed strong activity, with previous recommendations highlighting investment opportunities in this area, which has outperformed the broader market in recent years [7][10] - Consumer stocks, including tourism, food and beverage, and retail, also saw gains, supported by government initiatives to boost consumption [8][9] Future Market Outlook - The market is expected to maintain a "sector rotation, fluctuating but strong" characteristic, with the need for more effective stimulus to break the current deadlock [3][11][12] - Investors are advised to focus on individual stocks rather than indices, adopting strategies such as balanced allocation and high sell-low buy, particularly in sectors with strong performance support [4][12]

Market Overview - The A-share market continues its recovery trend, showing a fluctuating upward pattern with increased market activity and a faster rotation of sectors, particularly in consumer electronics and high-end manufacturing [2][8] - The trading volume has increased significantly, with nearly 300 billion yuan more than the previous trading day, indicating a trial entry of incremental funds and a marginal improvement in investor risk appetite [2][8] Economic Indicators - Recent macroeconomic data indicates a gradual recovery in manufacturing and other sectors, providing a supportive backdrop for the market [2][8] - Expectations for multiple important policy meetings before the end of the year are rising, with the market anticipating policies aimed at stabilizing growth, promoting reforms, and expanding domestic demand [2][8] Sector Performance - The consumer electronics sector has shown strong performance, driven by government policies aimed at enhancing the adaptability of supply and demand in consumer goods [6] - The non-ferrous metals sector has also surged, supported by new demand opportunities in aluminum due to the global data center construction wave and potential supply constraints [7] Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to align with sector rotation trends, employing balanced allocation, high sell-low buy strategies, or focusing on outperforming sectors [9] - Emphasis should be placed on selecting stocks with performance support while avoiding high-valuation speculative stocks lacking earnings backing [9]

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a rebound last week, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3888.60 points, up 0.34% [5] - The overall market sentiment improved, but the rebound strength was limited due to insufficient incremental capital inflow, with trading volume around 1.6 trillion yuan [2][14] - Key resistance is noted around the 4000-point mark, where historical selling pressure exists, restricting upward movement [14] Short-term Outlook - The market is expected to enter a phase of oscillation and gradual repair, with a warning of potential pullbacks after the rebound [3][15] - The ability to expand trading volume will be crucial for sustaining the rebound; low trading volume may lead to a return to range-bound trading [3][15] - Investors are advised to monitor changes in trading volume, capital flow, and policy developments closely [15] Sector Performance - Technology sectors, particularly artificial intelligence and semiconductor industries, showed strong performance, while other sectors lacked clear support for growth [14] - Consumer stocks, including dairy and food and beverage sectors, have been rising due to government policies aimed at boosting consumption [7][9] - New energy sectors, including batteries and photovoltaic equipment, are expected to continue their rebound, supported by ongoing demand for carbon neutrality [8][9] Investment Strategy - A focus on individual stocks rather than indices is recommended, with strategies such as balanced allocation and high-low trading [3][15] - Investors should target stocks with strong earnings support while avoiding high-valuation stocks lacking performance backing [15] - The report emphasizes the importance of selecting stocks in sectors with robust fundamentals, such as technology growth and cyclical industries [15]

Market Overview - The report indicates that the short-term market is likely to continue a pattern of "fluctuation and rotation" due to year-end capital games and a waiting period for policies, while structural trends may persist [2][10] - Despite short-term fluctuations, the medium-term outlook remains positive, suggesting a focus on individual stocks rather than indices, and recommending strategies such as balanced allocation and high-low trading [3][11] Sector Performance - The report highlights that the consumption electronics sector experienced significant gains, driven by favorable policies and an increase in innovative product supply [9] - New energy sectors, including battery and photovoltaic equipment stocks, showed upward movement, supported by ongoing global efforts to achieve carbon neutrality and favorable government policies [8][11] - The organic silicon sector saw a notable rise following a price increase announcement from Dow Chemical, indicating strong market dynamics [7] Trading Strategy - Investors are advised to focus on stocks with performance support while avoiding high-valuation stocks lacking earnings backing, emphasizing the importance of timing in sector rotation [3][11] - The report suggests that sectors such as technology growth (semiconductors, AI themes, robotics) and cyclical industries (photovoltaics, batteries, chemicals) should be prioritized for investment [3][11]