Core Insights - The report indicates a strong rebound in the A-share market, with the Shanghai Composite Index recovering the 3900-point mark and the ChiNext Index showing a gain of over 2% [2][9] - The increase in market activity is attributed to a significant easing of global liquidity concerns, driven by a lower U.S. core CPI of 2.6% year-on-year, the lowest since March 2021, which has led to increased bets on earlier interest rate cuts in 2026 [2][9] - The report highlights the potential for structural and policy-driven investment opportunities in the upcoming cross-year market, despite underlying economic growth constraints due to declining fixed asset investment [2][9] Market Overview - On the trading day, the three major indices opened strongly, with the Shanghai Composite Index returning to the 3900-point level. Key sectors such as Hainan Free Trade Zone, optical communication modules, and semiconductor equipment saw significant gains [5][6] - The overall market sentiment was positive, with a total trading volume approaching 1.9 trillion yuan, indicating a release of market energy [6][9] Sector Analysis - The Hainan Free Trade Zone concept stocks experienced a substantial rise following the official launch of the free trade port operations on December 18, which is seen as a significant step towards high-level openness in China [7] - Optical communication module stocks also surged, driven by their critical role in modern communication networks, including 5G and data centers. The sector is expected to remain in a high prosperity cycle, supported by advancements in AI computing and data center upgrades [8] Investment Strategy - The report suggests maintaining a consistent investment approach, focusing on sectors with strong earnings support, including technology growth areas (semiconductors, AI themes, robotics), cyclical industries (solar, batteries, chemicals), and dividend stocks (banks, utilities) [3][10] - Investors are advised to avoid high-valuation stocks lacking earnings support and to consider opportunities in sectors that are expected to perform well in the current market environment [10]

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced fluctuations, with the consumer sector showing strong performance, while the real estate sector rebounded from low levels. External factors, such as the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike, briefly boosted market sentiment, but the gains were not sustained, indicating that external factors can only cause short-term emotional fluctuations without altering the underlying market logic [1][4][14] - The recent market volatility is attributed to the uncertainty surrounding the strength of domestic economic recovery, the time required for policy effects to materialize, and seasonal liquidity pressures as the year-end approaches. Institutional rebalancing for annual performance also contributes to short-term disturbances [1][14] Sector Analysis Consumer Sector - The consumer sector has been active, with significant gains in retail, food and beverage, and other consumer stocks driven by favorable consumption policies. Recent government initiatives aim to stimulate consumption, indicating a structural rally in this sector [7][8][10] Real Estate Sector - The real estate sector has seen a rebound due to the implementation of supportive policies from both central and local governments. The focus on stabilizing the real estate market and addressing local debt risks is expected to improve the sector's fundamentals, providing short-term boosts to the market [10][11] Financial Sector - The financial sector, particularly insurance and brokerage stocks, has shown upward momentum. Recent regulatory adjustments have lowered risk factors for insurance companies, which is expected to enhance their performance. The overall market conditions, including liquidity and economic recovery, are favorable for the financial sector [11][12] Technology Sector - The technology sector, including semiconductor and AI-related industries, remains a focus for investment. The report suggests selecting stocks with strong earnings support while avoiding high-valuation stocks lacking performance backing [2][14] Automotive Sector - The autonomous driving sector has gained attention with the approval of L3 level autonomous driving vehicles for commercial use, marking a significant step towards commercialization in China. This development is expected to drive interest and investment in related stocks [12]

Core Viewpoints - The current market strategy for investors is to remain calm and patient, avoiding excessive excitement from single-day rebounds or pessimism from adjustments. The focus should be on selecting fundamentally supported stocks for low-cost entry while steering clear of high-valuation stocks lacking earnings support [1][8][9] Market Overview - On Thursday, the three major indices opened lower, with the Shanghai Composite Index fluctuating to positive territory while the Shenzhen Component and ChiNext remained weak. The performance was mixed, with strong gains in the pharmaceutical and aerospace sectors, while growth and technology stocks dragged down overall market performance [4][5][6] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3876.37 points, up 6.09 points, with a trading volume of 7048.96 billion; the Shenzhen Component closed at 13053.97 points, down 170.54 points, with a trading volume of 9505.87 billion; the ChiNext Index closed at 3107.06 points, down 68.85 points, with a trading volume of 4498.55 billion [5] Sector Analysis - The pharmaceutical commercial sector saw significant gains, supported by government funding announcements for medical insurance and healthcare services, totaling 416.6 billion for 2026 [6] - High-dividend stocks, particularly in the banking sector, supported the index. Investors are advised to focus on high-dividend stocks with strong fundamentals while avoiding high valuations in low-supply barrier industries [6][7] - The commercial aerospace sector became active due to recent policy clarifications and the establishment of dedicated regulatory bodies, providing a more stable development environment for the industry. Investors are encouraged to consider low-cost entries rather than chasing high prices [7]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report emphasizes that despite a recent decline in A-shares, there is no need for excessive concern as the fundamental support for the market remains intact, with the central bank indicating a flexible approach to maintaining liquidity through tools like reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate reductions [1][9][10] - The report suggests that the recent market adjustment is viewed as a structural pullback rather than the beginning of a new downward trend, indicating a low probability of deep adjustments in the index [1][9] - The report highlights that the market showed resilience with a notable rebound in the afternoon session, particularly driven by financial sectors such as insurance and securities, which indicates a potential recovery in market sentiment [1][5][9] Group 2 - The report maintains a consistent investment strategy, recommending a focus on sectors with earnings support, including technology growth areas (semiconductors, AI themes, robotics), cyclical industries (solar, batteries, chemicals, coal, non-ferrous metals), and dividend stocks (banks, utilities) while avoiding high-valuation stocks lacking earnings support [2][8] - The analysis of the market on Wednesday indicates a mixed opening for the major indices, with significant activity in consumer sectors and a strong performance from the ChiNext index, reflecting a recovery in market dynamics [4][5] - The report notes that the energy metal and battery sectors experienced collective gains, driven by ongoing global demand for lithium batteries, solar energy, and wind power, which are expected to continue supporting these industries [6][9]

Economic Indicators - As of November, M0 balance reached 13.74 trillion yuan, increasing by approximately 0.19 trillion yuan month-on-month, with a year-on-year growth of 10.6%[2] - M1 balance stood at 112.89 trillion yuan, up by 0.89 trillion yuan from the previous month, with a year-on-year growth of 4.9%, a slowdown of 1.3 percentage points compared to last month[2] - M2 balance was 336.99 trillion yuan, increasing by 1.86 trillion yuan month-on-month, with a year-on-year growth of 8%, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month[2] Financing Trends - The total social financing stock was 440.07 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 8.5%, maintaining the same growth rate as the previous month[2] - New RMB loans in November amounted to 405.3 billion yuan, while new foreign currency loans were -22.2 billion yuan, totaling 383.1 billion yuan in new loans, which is 90.1 billion yuan less than the previous year[2] - New corporate bond financing reached 416.9 billion yuan, and new corporate stock financing was 34.2 billion yuan, totaling 451.1 billion yuan in corporate direct financing, an increase of 168.3 billion yuan year-on-year[2] Deposit Growth - Corporate deposit growth slowed to 3.63% in November, down from 3.79% the previous month, with a total corporate deposit balance of 79.34 trillion yuan, increasing by 0.65 trillion yuan[2] - Resident deposit growth decreased to 9.56%, down 0.13 percentage points from the previous month, with a total resident deposit balance of 163.31 trillion yuan, increasing by 0.67 trillion yuan[2] - Non-bank financial institutions' deposits grew by 0.08 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 16.09%, a decrease of 0.58 percentage points from the previous month[2]

Market Overview - The A-share market continues to experience downward pressure, influenced by negative sentiment from external markets, including declines in Japanese and Hong Kong stocks [1][8] - Consumer stocks showed some resilience, with real estate stocks experiencing temporary gains, but overall market sentiment remains weak, leading to limited rebound strength [1][5] Key Factors Affecting the Market - The decline in the A-share market is attributed to several factors: the widespread drop in technology stocks globally, rising expectations of interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan, and structural contradictions within the domestic market [1][8] - The market is facing a lack of clear leading sectors, with frequent rotation of hotspots and insufficient profit-making opportunities [1][8] - As the year-end approaches, institutional investors may engage in tactical rebalancing to lock in profits, contributing to market volatility [1][8] - There is a notable lack of willingness from new capital to enter the market, with trading volumes remaining low at around 1.7 trillion yuan [1][8] Policy Support and Market Outlook - Despite the current market adjustments, there is no need for excessive concern as core supporting factors remain unchanged: the central bank has indicated a flexible approach to maintaining liquidity through tools like reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate reductions [2][9] - The National Development and Reform Commission is implementing various measures to stabilize investment, which serves as an important support for the market [2][9] - The upcoming focus is on "waiting and preparing," particularly in anticipation of the Bank of Japan's interest rate decisions, which may signal market stabilization [2][10] Investment Strategy Recommendations - Investors are advised to review their portfolio structures and optimize allocation towards sectors with strong policy support and clear growth prospects [2][10] - Maintaining liquidity is crucial for potential buying opportunities as the market approaches the New Year and spring season [2][10] - It is recommended to focus on sectors such as technology growth (semiconductors, AI themes, robotics), cyclical industries (solar energy, batteries, chemicals), and dividend stocks (banks, utilities) while avoiding high-valuation stocks lacking earnings support [2][10]

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a weak oscillation pattern with a low opening and subsequent recovery, influenced by negative sentiment from external markets, particularly the decline in Japanese and Hong Kong stocks [2][4][8] - The insurance and consumer sectors saw gains, while technology stocks faced significant declines, indicating a lack of sustained support from new capital [2][6][7] Sector Performance - The insurance sector led the market with notable gains, driven by regulatory adjustments that lowered risk factors for investments in key indices [6][7] - Consumer stocks, particularly in retail and food and beverage, were active due to recent government policies aimed at boosting consumption [6][7] - Conversely, sectors such as semiconductor, energy metals, and bioproducts experienced declines, reflecting broader market weaknesses [4][5][6] Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to adopt a cautious approach, waiting for clearer entry signals, while long-term investors may consider buying on dips [2][7] - Focus should be on sectors with strong earnings support, including technology growth areas (semiconductors, AI, robotics) and cyclical industries (solar, batteries, chemicals) [2][7] - Avoid high-valuation stocks lacking performance backing, emphasizing the importance of selecting fundamentally sound investments [2][7]

Group 1: Economic Outlook - The 2026 focus will be on eight key tasks including domestic demand, innovation, reform, and green development[3] - The GDP growth target for 2026 is expected to be around 5.0%[1] - Foreign exchange reserves are projected to steadily rise from $3.3 trillion[1] Group 2: Employment and Social Welfare - Employment initiatives will include stabilizing jobs for key groups like college graduates and migrant workers[10] - Education reforms aim to increase high school and college enrollment[10] - Healthcare reforms will optimize drug procurement and enhance insurance systems[10] Group 3: Investment and Consumption - Investment strategies will focus on stabilizing and increasing central budget investments[12] - Consumer spending will be boosted through actions like increasing the supply of quality goods and services[12] - Policies will aim to remove unreasonable restrictions in the consumption sector[12] Group 4: Environmental and Technological Initiatives - The "dual carbon" initiative will drive comprehensive green transformation efforts[12] - Technological innovation will be prioritized through the establishment of international innovation centers[13] - A focus on enhancing the role of enterprises in innovation and protecting intellectual property rights is emphasized[13] Group 5: Risk Management - Risks from tariffs on exports and potential lower-than-expected interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve are highlighted[4] - Measures will be taken to stabilize the real estate market and manage local government debt risks[14]

英大证券研究所证券研究报告 每 周 投 资 早 参 2025 年 12 月 15 日 美联储靴子落地及重要会议后，A 股修复行情有望延续，踏准板块轮动 节奏更重要 观点： 总量视角 【A 股大势研判】 2025 年 12 月 11 日，美联储联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)发布了最新的利率决 议，宣布降息 25 个基点，将联邦基金利率目标区间降至 3.50%-3.75%，符合市场 "鹰派降息"预期。这也是美联储连续第三次会议宣布降息，全年的累计降息幅度 就此达到 75 个基点（数据来源：财联社）。我们认为，尽管降息 25 个基点，但 被视为未来利率路径"风向标"的点阵图却显示，美联储官员对明年降息的预测依 然保守，且维持 2026 年仅有一次降息的预期，这大大削弱了市场对即将开启长 期宽松周期的乐观想象。 中央经济工作会议 12 月 10 日至 11 日在北京举行。会议总结 2025 年经济工 作，分析当前经济形势，部署 2026 年经济工作。明年经济工作任务目标提到"推 动经济实现质的有效提升和量的合理增长，实现"十五五"良好开局"。尽管当前国 内物价仍存在一定下行压力，考虑到"十五五"开局保持较高经济增速的 ...

Economic Growth Outlook - The GDP growth target for 2026 is likely to remain around "5.0%" based on the successful achievement of 2025's economic goals[8] - To meet the "5.0%" GDP growth target, the fourth quarter GDP must reach approximately 375,043.96 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 4.61%[8] International Trade and Economic Strategy - China is expected to continue to "gain the upper hand" in international economic and trade struggles in 2026, building on previous successes against U.S. tariffs[10] - The U.S. unemployment rate is projected to rise to at least 5.0% in 2026, which may pressure the U.S. government's domestic and foreign policies[12] Employment and Market Stability - The average number of employees in industrial enterprises decreased by 1.40% year-on-year in October, indicating challenges in employment stability[14] - The total profit of industrial enterprises increased by 1.90% year-on-year in October, but the number of loss-making enterprises rose to 4.0%, the highest since February 2025[14] Policy Direction and Focus Areas - The 12.8 Politburo meeting emphasized the need for a more proactive macroeconomic policy, focusing on stabilizing employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations[13] - The meeting outlined eight key tasks for 2026, highlighting the importance of green development, which has seen a "leap" in priority[19]