市场指数走势 （最近2年|2022/7/19-2024/7/19） 研究员：游虎 执业编号：S0990523060001 电话：0755-83007019 E-mail：youhu@ydzq.sgcc.com.cn 电力能源行业周报（2024.07.15-2024.07.21） 2024.7.24 核心观点 指数表现：截至2024/7/19收盘，本周沪深300上涨1.92%，中信电力及公用事业指数上涨 0.97%，落后沪深300指数0.95pct，中信电力设备及新能源指数上涨1.84%，落后沪深300指 数0.08pct。 行业表现：本周在30个中信一级行业中，电力及公用事业指数本周涨跌幅为0.97%，排第9 -3.58%、-3.18%。 位；电力设备及新能源指数本周涨跌幅为1.84%，排第5位。中信三级行业，电力能源相关 子板块中，太阳能指数、锂电池指数、水电指数涨幅位列前三位，分别为4.84%、4.38%、 4.25%；核电指数、车用电机电控指数、电池综合服务指数涨幅位列后三位，分别为-5.00%、 电力工业运行：2024年6月，全社会用电量为8205亿千瓦时，同比5.86%；2024年1-6月，全 社会 ...

Market Overview - The A-share market is experiencing a lack of momentum for recovery, with the need for policy support to stimulate market confidence and sentiment [1][11] - The Shanghai Composite Index fell below 3000 points, impacting market sentiment and leading to widespread declines across sectors [1][2] - Despite the current weak market conditions, there is no systemic risk anticipated due to overall fundamental support [1][5] Sector Performance - The semiconductor sector, influenced by a significant drop in the US market, has seen declines in A-shares, but there are expectations for growth due to improving conditions and policy support [2][9] - Real estate stocks surged following government initiatives to purchase existing properties for affordable housing, indicating potential short-term boosts for the sector [4] - Industrial mother machine stocks also saw significant gains, driven by government focus on enhancing technology and addressing supply chain issues [4][14] Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to adopt a cautious approach, waiting for stabilization signals before making significant investments [5][11] - Long-term strategic investors are encouraged to consider low-dividend high-yield stocks and undervalued technology growth stocks during this period of market adjustment [5][11]

Group 1: Defense Industry Insights - The report emphasizes the acceleration of weapon modernization and innovation in defense technology, predicting increased policy support for the military industry. From 2020 to 2024, China's defense budget is expected to grow at rates of 6.6%, 6.8%, 7.1%, 7.2%, and 7.2% respectively, indicating stable growth in military spending [3] - Benefiting from accelerated national defense construction, military enterprises have seen significant performance improvements since 2020, with full order books [3] - The report highlights the impact of international geopolitical complexities, such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the Israel-Palestine conflict, which may lead to a concentration of state capital in the defense sector. Key areas to watch include aviation, military weapons, defense informatization, shipbuilding, and new military materials [3] Group 2: Banking Sector Performance - The banking sector has recently shown resilience, supporting market indices. Concerns over asset quality related to real estate have led to lower valuations, but a stabilization in the real estate market could improve risk appetite for banks, potentially driving up valuations [3] - High dividend yields in a low-interest-rate environment make bank stocks attractive for investors. Recent disclosures of significant share purchases by major banks indicate strong institutional interest [3] Group 3: Power Sector Dynamics - The power sector has demonstrated strong performance, with recent government initiatives aimed at ensuring electricity supply and safety during peak demand periods. The report notes frequent news of price increases in public utilities, suggesting a favorable environment for high-dividend stocks [3] - The report anticipates that state-owned monopolistic industries, such as electricity, water, gas, and transportation, will be favored due to their superior dividend scales and sustainability [3] Group 4: AI and Technology Trends - The report discusses the recent surge in AI-related stocks, driven by advancements in generative AI technologies and applications. The launch of new AI models by major companies like Apple signifies a shift towards AI integration across various sectors [5] - Despite a recent adjustment in AI stocks, the report suggests that the sector may enter a phase of genuine investment as companies demonstrate real earnings contributions from AI applications [5] Group 5: Industrial Machinery Sector - The industrial machinery sector has seen increased activity, particularly in response to government initiatives aimed at enhancing technological research and development in critical areas such as integrated circuits and industrial machinery [5][6] - The report identifies industrial machinery as a sector likely to benefit from policy support, aligning with national goals for self-sufficiency and manufacturing upgrades [6]

| --- | --- | |-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------------------------| | 【A股大势研判】 | | | AI 概念大涨，市场强力反弹，后市能否持续？ | | | 一、周三市场综述 周三晨报提醒，周二 A | 股半导体板块等科技股的走低，拖累了市场，沪深三大指 | | 数继续下滑。对于半导体板块来说，景气的回升叠加政策的预期之下，板块增长值得期 | | | 待，中期或仍是逢低配置的好时机。当前，国内宏观基本面修复还不强，有效需求依旧 | | | 不足，市场基本面提振动力依然缺失，后期仍需政策的发力，或许才能刺激情绪以及信 | | | 心的提升。 7 | 月重要会议或是阶段的重要看点。随着成交量的极度萎缩，也需留意指数 | | 随时反弹的可能。稳健投资者，仍需 ...

金点策略晨报—每日报告 2024 年 7 月 2 日 星期二 第 1 页 | --- | |----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | | | 在不断拓宽。 | | 三是银行股继续上涨。近期银行板块走强拉升力挺指数。首先，此前市场担心房 | | 地产引发的资产质量问题，给予较低估值，如果房地产市场阶段性企稳，对银行业的风 | | 险偏好可能回升，从而推动估值回升；其次，银行股的股息率较高，在目前利率较低的 | | 环境下具有投资吸引力；最后，近期几大银行纷纷披露汇金增持情况，近半年汇金对四 | | 家国有大行增持股份超 10 亿股。综上所述，高股息率以及较低的估值下，未来业绩整体 | | 平稳的预期，或是银行股得到资金持续关注的重要原因。 | | 四是电力等公用事业板块表现偏强。周一电力、燃气等公用板块上涨。近来公用 | | 事业涨价消息频繁。我们认为，低利率的环境中，能够提供稳定的高股息的红利股难能 | | 可贵。从行业看，银行、石油石化、高速公路或港口营运等行业的高股 ...

金点策略晨报—每日报告 2024 年 6 月 28 日 星期五 | --- | |--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | 【A股大势研判】 | | 市场缩量寻底，继续耐心等待 | | 一、周四市场综述 | | 周四晨报提醒，周三指数终于迎来了反弹。上午，市场低位徘徊没有太多起色， 而午后， AI 应用方向个股持续走强，叠加其他科技股的表现，共同激发市场热情，并推 | | | | 动指数回升。反弹能否持续？连续下跌后，目前暂且看做情绪反弹行情处理。从成交上 | | 看，增量不济或许仍是制约反弹高度的重要因素。短期可关注反弹的力度，后期仍需政 策的发力，或许才能刺激情绪以及信心的提升。 7 月重要会议或是阶段的重要看点。短 | | 线投资者适当博弈超跌反弹。稳健投资者仍需继续耐心等待更明确的信号出现。 | | 周四早盘，沪深三大指数集 ...

Market Overview - The A-share market is experiencing fluctuations around the 3000-point mark, with a notable rise in the fiscal and tax digitalization concept stocks [1][9] - On July 2, the market showed a mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 2997.01 points, up by 2.28 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 86.50 points to 8812.67 points [5][9] - The overall market sentiment remains subdued, with a trading volume of 644.7 billion yuan across both exchanges [5] Key Concepts and Trends - The fiscal and tax digitalization concept has seen significant gains, driven by recent government reports advocating for enhanced tax collection and data sharing [3][6] - The banking sector continues to rise, supported by low valuations and high dividend yields, particularly as concerns over real estate-related asset quality issues begin to stabilize [6][9] - Digital economy stocks are also experiencing a resurgence, with expectations for continued growth in the sector, particularly in areas such as 5G, artificial intelligence, and cloud computing [8][9] Future Market Outlook - The market is expected to see a rebound, influenced by anticipated economic reforms and an increase in positive earnings forecasts during the mid-year reporting season [9] - However, the recovery of the domestic economy remains weak, and further policy support is necessary for a broader market improvement [9] - Short-term investors are advised to focus on high-dividend and technology stocks, while more conservative investors should wait for clearer signals before making investment decisions [9]

2 全球与中国宏观经济走势在根本上决定股、债、汇、商等大类资产价格走势，进而对 资本市场产生深远影响。准确研判全球与中国宏观经济走势，是做好大类资产配置的前提 条件，也是在资本市场中取得良好收益的必要基础。 一、美国宏观经济或将承压，首次降息时点大概率落在下半年 作为全球 GDP 占比达 25%左右的第一大经济体，美国经济走势在较大程度上影响全球经 济走势。关于美国经济，目前资本市场关注的焦点有两个：一是包括美国在内的全球宏观 经济是处于去库存阶段，还是处于补库存阶段？二是美联储将在何时启动降息进程？ 针对第一个问题，基于主观判断的"软指标"方面，摩根大通全球制造业 PMI 连续 4 个月位于荣枯线之上，以及美国 Markit 制造业 PMI 连续 5 个月处于扩张区间，欧元区、日 本、英国制造业 PMI 均出现上行走势，尤其是日本、英国制造业 PMI 跃至荣枯线之上，但 是依旧存在利空因素，即美国 ISM 制造业 PMI 连续 2 个月位于荣枯线之下。源于经济实际 运行的"硬指标"方面，1 季度美国不变价 GDP 环比折年率终值录得 1.40%，低于初值 0.20 个百分点，创 2022 年 3 季度以来新 ...

研究员：惠祥凤 执业证书号：S0990513100001 联系电话：0755-83007028 Email：huixf@ydzq.sgcc.com.cn | --- | |-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | | | 全天看，行业方面，交运设备、光学光电子、电机、半导体、通信设备、医疗服 | | 务、贸易、仪器仪表、互联网服务、通信服务、消费电子、电源设备、专用设备、化学 | | 制药等板块跌幅居前；题材股方面，高宽带内存、赛马、次新股、钙钛矿电池、东数西 | | 算等题材股跌幅居前。 | | 整体上，个股涨少跌多，市场情绪萎靡，赚钱效应非常差，两市成交额 6956 | | 元，截止收盘，上证指数报 2963.10 点，下跌 35.04 点，跌幅 1.17% ，总成交额 3185.96 | | 亿；深证成指报 8924.17 点，下跌 140.67 的点，跌幅 1.55% ，总成交额 3770.17 亿；创 | | 业板指报 1731.51 点，下 ...

金点策略晨报—每日报告 2024 年 6 月 5 日 星期三 | --- | |------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | 【A股大势研判】 | | 市场连续调整后，短期有反弹需求，问题公司出清继续 | | 一、周二市场综述 | | 周二晨早短信提醒，周一沪深三大指数涨跌不一，但个股大面积下跌。盘面上看， | | 银行以及有色板块的走低对市场形成拖累，而 ST 板块出现跌停潮以及微盘股集体大跌， | | 也打击了市场情绪。近期，随着指数高位震荡以及重心回落，市场成交本身萎缩。提醒 | | 投资者以下五类股票或被边缘化，尽量要规避：规避披星戴帽的 ST、*ST 股票；规避被 | | 交易所公开谴责、通报批评的股票；规避未在法定期限内披露年报、季报的及财报被出 | | 具无法表示意见或者否定意见的审计报告的；规避主营业务不佳，经营现金流持续为负， | | 靠外延并购重组苟延残喘的股票；规避空壳股票。 | | 周二早盘，沪深三大指数集体低开，随后低开高走，创指盘中一度涨超 1% 。盘面 ...