[Table_Title] 农药价格下滑致业绩承压，优创项目奠定未来成长 [Table_ReportDate] 扬农化工(600486)公司简评报告 | 2024.05.15 [评Ta级ble：_R an买k]入 核心观点 [ Table_Authors] [⚫T abl事e_件Su：mm ary] 翟绪丽 扬农化工发布2023年年度报告，报告期内公司实现营收114.78亿元， 首席分析师 同比减少 27.41%；实现归母净利润 15.65 亿元，同比减少 12.77 %； SAC执证编号：S0110522010001 2023Q4公司实现营收22.04亿元，同比减少18.63 %，环比减少0.14 %； zhaixuli@sczq.com.cn 电话：010-81152683 实现归母净利润2.04亿元，同比增长31.09 %，环比减少13.81 %。 ⚫ 原药销量保持增长，农药价格下滑导致利润下降。 甄理 根据公司生产经营数据，2023年公司原药产/销量分别为9.09万吨/9.65 化工行业研究助理 万吨，分别同比-1.88%/+10.43%；公司制剂产/销量分别为3.39万吨/3.57 zhenli@s ...

[Table_Summary] [Table_Title] 外用制剂快速增长，盈利能力稳健提升 [Table_ReportDate] 九典制药(300705)公司简评报告 | 2024.05.15 [Table_Rank] 评级： 买入 核心观点 [Table_Authors] 王斌 首席分析师 SAC 执证编号：S0110522030002 wangbin3@sczq.com.cn 电话：86-10-81152644 [市场指数走势（最近 Table_Chart] 1 年） 资料来源：聚源数据 -0.5 0 0.5 1 15-May 27-Jul 8-Oct20-Dec 2-Mar14-May 九典制药 沪深300 | --- | --- | |---------------------------------|-------------| | [Table_BaseData] 公司基本数据 | | | 最新收盘价（元） | 37.57 | | 一年内最高 / 最低价（元） | 39.70/18.80 | | 市盈率（当前） | 31.09 | | 市净率（当前） | 6.41 | | 总股本（亿股） | ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company has shown continuous improvement in phosphate ore production, with a net profit attributable to shareholders expected to maintain growth in 2023 [1] - The average price of phosphate rock in 2023 was 990 RMB/ton, a year-on-year increase of 10.2%, contributing to the company's profitability [4] - The company has completed several projects in its Guangxi base, which are expected to enhance production capacity and profitability in the future [5] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 10.00 RMB per 10 shares, reflecting a significant increase in the dividend payout ratio to 77.7% [5] Summary of Financial Performance - In 2023, the company achieved operating revenue of 4.32 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 25.3%, and a net profit of 766 million RMB, an increase of 1.1% [3][6] - The company’s revenue for Q4 2023 was 1.25 billion RMB, up 25.81% year-on-year, with a net profit of 275 million RMB, reflecting a 62.76% increase year-on-year [3] - The company’s phosphate ore production reached 2.992 million tons in 2023, an increase of 480,000 tons from 2022 [4] Future Projections - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 936 million RMB, 1.206 billion RMB, and 1.485 billion RMB for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.73, 2.22, and 2.74 RMB [5][6] - Revenue growth rates are expected to be 20.3% in 2024, 21.8% in 2025, and 17.6% in 2026 [6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [11][26]. Core Views - The company's human-derived protein business showed fluctuations, but the acquisition of a 31.161% stake in Nanda Pharmaceutical is expected to enhance revenue [1]. - In 2023, the company achieved a revenue of 411 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 68.44%, but reported a net loss attributable to shareholders of 76 million yuan [4]. - The HIV innovative drug sales are improving, with a total revenue of approximately 73.58 million yuan in 2023, marking a 119.67% increase [18]. Financial Performance - The company reported a revenue of 4.11 billion yuan in 2023, with a projected revenue of 5.67 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a growth rate of 37.9% [5][26]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to improve from a loss of 0.76 billion yuan in 2023 to a loss of 0.35 billion yuan in 2024, and then to a profit of 0.35 billion yuan in 2025 [5][26]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to improve from -0.18 yuan in 2023 to 0.08 yuan in 2025 [5][26]. Market Position - The latest closing price of the company's stock is 16.10 yuan, with a one-year high of 17.40 yuan and a low of 9.63 yuan [3]. - The current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is -75.14, and the price-to-book (P/B) ratio is 6.08 [3]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to maintain a quarterly growth trend in HIV drug sales, driven by the successful inclusion of the drug Ainomit in the medical insurance directory [18]. - The revenue from HIV new drugs is projected to continue growing, with a significant increase in new patient numbers and improved medication adherence [18].

[Table_Title] 周期下行韧性十足，依然看好未来业绩弹性 [Table_ReportDate] 华鲁恒升(600426)公司简评报告 | 2024.05.14 [评Ta级ble：_R an买k]入 核心观点 [ Table_Authors] [⚫T abl事e_件Su：mm公a司ry]发 布2023年年报，报告期内实现营业收入272.60亿元，同 翟绪丽 比-9.87%，实现归母净利润35.76亿元，同比-43.14%，其中Q1/Q2/Q3/Q4 首席分析师 分别实现归母净利润 7.82/9.28/12.18/6.49 亿元，分别同比-67.82%/- SAC执证编号：S0110522010001 55.40%/+18.84%/-14.09。 zhaixuli@sczq.com.cn 电话：010-81152683 ⚫ 2023年产品产销量同比增长，但价格下滑拖累业绩下滑。2023年11月， 荆州项目一期建成投产，新增尿素产能 100 万吨/年，醋酸产能 100 万 [市Ta场bl指e数_Ch走a势rt]（ 最近1年） 吨/年，DMF产能15万吨/年，混甲胺产能15万吨/年，2023年12月德 0. ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1][2] Core Insights - The company is entering a rapid growth phase with continuous improvement in innovative drug sales, particularly in the HIV segment, which has shown significant revenue growth [4][15] - The company reported a revenue of 411 million yuan in 2023, representing a year-on-year increase of 68.44%, although it still posted a net loss of 76 million yuan [3][5] - The forecast for revenue from 2024 to 2026 is projected to be 567 million yuan, 817 million yuan, and 1.097 billion yuan, with respective growth rates of 37.9%, 44.0%, and 34.4% [2][5] Financial Summary - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) is expected to improve from -0.18 yuan in 2023 to 0.39 yuan by 2026, indicating a turnaround in profitability [5][6] - The projected net profit for 2024 is expected to be -35 million yuan, turning positive to 163 million yuan by 2026, reflecting a significant growth rate of 368.7% [5][6] - The company’s total assets are projected to grow from 1.747 billion yuan in 2023 to 2.275 billion yuan by 2026, indicating a strengthening financial position [6]

首创证券的销售人员、交易人员以及其他专业人士可能会依据不同假设和标准、采用不同的分析方法而口头或书 面发表与本报告意见及建议不一致的市场评论和/或交易观点。首创证券没有将此意见及建议向报告所有接收者 进行更新的义务。首创证券的自营部门以及其他投资业务部门可能独立做出与本报告中的意见或建议不一致的 投资决策。 本报告的版权仅为首创证券所有，未经书面许可任何机构和个人不得以任何形式转发、翻版、复制、刊登、发表 或引用。 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------|-------|-------|-------|--------------------------------------------------------|-------|--------|---------|-------|---------|---------|-------|--------------------- ...

Core Views and Outlook - The report indicates that the market has shown a slight upward trend with major indices rising, while specific sectors like TMT have experienced a pullback. The real estate sector has surged following policy adjustments, with significant gains in agriculture, defense, real estate, non-ferrous metals, and coal industries, all exceeding 4% growth [2][4]. - The April social financing data remains weak, with both social financing and M1 showing negative growth. The rolling year-on-year growth rate of social financing is nearing a 21-year low, indicating persistent weak demand in the economy. However, the report suggests that the likelihood of further deterioration is low, and future improvements are more probable [2][4]. - The report maintains that the current market risk is limited, with the overall A-share index still below its October 2023 closing price. The potential for upward movement depends on the recovery speed of corporate earnings and improvements in market liquidity [2][4]. Index and Fund Market Review - The report notes that all three types of equity funds have seen an increase in net value, with ordinary equity funds, mixed equity funds, and flexible allocation funds showing median increases of 2.08%, 2.06%, and 1.46%, respectively. The threshold for the top 50% of public fund net values this year is 1.3% [10][11]. - Northbound capital has seen a net inflow of 4.842 billion yuan, with the food and beverage sector receiving over 4 billion yuan in net inflows. Other sectors such as pharmaceuticals, banking, and machinery have also seen increased investments, while sectors like automotive, media, and electric equipment experienced net outflows [14][15]. Risk Preference and Sector Heat - The report highlights that the sector heat index shows significant interest in sectors such as beauty care, agriculture, and non-bank financials, with scores of 97, 89, and 88, respectively. In contrast, sectors like automobiles and media have seen declines in interest [23]. - The report indicates that the overall market's PE valuation median has risen to 20.3 times, with a historical percentile of 23.3%, while the PB valuation median remains at 1.8 times, with a historical percentile of 13.8% [26]. Important Capital Behavior - The report details that the median PE valuation for major sectors varies, with beauty care at 33.8 times and coal at 9.9 times. The report also notes that the banking sector has a relatively low PE of 5.5 times, indicating potential undervaluation [27]. - The report provides insights into the changes in industry earnings forecasts, with real estate showing a significant increase of 94.74% in EPS forecast for 2024, despite a negative actual EPS for 2023 [28].

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Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company [1][19]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 2.6 billion yuan in 2023, representing a year-on-year growth of 86.96%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 309 million yuan, which is a 108.18% increase year-on-year [19]. - The revenue growth is attributed to strong sales from key clients such as Li Auto and Seres, with Li Auto delivering 376,000 vehicles in 2023, a 182.2% increase year-on-year [19]. - The company has improved its profitability, with a gross margin of 28.14% in Q4 2023, and a net margin of 14.10%, benefiting from enhanced automation and cost control measures [19]. - The company has a well-structured supply chain and a strong client base, including Tier 1 suppliers and major automotive manufacturers, positioning it to benefit from the growth of core clients [19]. - Capacity expansion is underway, with a new production base in Changzhou set to launch a 9,000-ton die-casting machine in Q4 2024, and another base in Zhaoqing to enhance production capabilities [19]. - The company is expected to benefit from the lightweighting trend in the new energy vehicle sector, with projected revenues of 4.15 billion yuan, 5.57 billion yuan, and 6.98 billion yuan for 2024-2026, respectively [19]. Financial Summary - Revenue (billion yuan): 2023A: 2.6, 2024E: 4.15, 2025E: 5.57, 2026E: 6.98 [2]. - Net profit (billion yuan): 2023A: 0.31, 2024E: 0.46, 2025E: 0.63, 2026E: 0.81 [2]. - EPS (yuan/share): 2023A: 1.11, 2024E: 1.66, 2025E: 2.25, 2026E: 2.89 [2]. - PE Ratio: 2024E: 13.1, 2025E: 9.7, 2026E: 7.5 [2].