2025年3月20日 银河观点集萃 责任编辑 周颖 ☎：010-80927635 网:zhouying_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130511090001 要闻 3月 LPR 报价:1年期、5年期均维持不变 每日晨报 www.chinastock.com.cn 证券研究报告 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明 宏观：揭秘"全口径消费统计制度"——深挖宏观数据系列之八。四大消费指 ● 标都不能反映消费全貌,但利用好指标间的动态互补性,也可对经济增长和消 费状况作出比较好的观测。供给端,社会消费品零售额与服务零售额形成"商 品-服务双轮驱动";需求端,城乡调查(居民人均消费支出)与 GDP 核算(居 民消费支出)构成"微观-宏观闭环";月度社零与季度居民人均消费支出的结 合,能够为经济周期监测提供重要参考;消费补贴政策的评估结合企业端(社 零）和居民端(城乡住户调查）进行双重验证。 CGS-NDI 研究:东盟经济系列:AI 浪潮下探索中国-东盟数字经济共同体。 ● 创新驱动协同发展,打造全球经济新引擎:在以人工智能为代表的工业革命推 动下，中国-东盟协同发展已 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [1]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 1789.48 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 2.25%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 36.09% to 40.39 billion yuan [4][7]. - The decline in net profit is attributed to a decrease in gross margin, impairment provisions totaling 60.34 billion yuan, and increased foreign exchange losses of 1.22 billion yuan [4][7]. - Despite the overall industry pressure, the company maintained its sales ranking at fifth in the industry, with a sales area of 935.90 million square meters, down 23.50% year-on-year, and a sales amount of 2193.02 billion yuan, down 25.31% [4][7]. - The company focused its investments on core cities, acquiring 26 new land parcels with a total planned construction area of 2.25 million square meters and a total land price of 48.6 billion yuan, reflecting an increase in land quality [4][5]. - Financial management remains robust, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 62.37% and a net debt ratio of 55.85% as of the end of 2024, ensuring sufficient liquidity [4][5]. Financial Performance Summary - The company achieved a gross margin of 14.61% in 2024, down 1.28 percentage points from the previous year, with a projected gross margin of 13.60% for 2025 [6][9]. - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 is 48.67 billion yuan, 54.92 billion yuan, and 59.79 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.54 yuan, 0.61 yuan, and 0.66 yuan [6][7]. - The company’s operating income is expected to grow at rates of 5.73%, 4.19%, and 3.28% for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [6][9].

Group 1: Consumption Dynamics - Consumption is a core engine of China's economy, contributing 44.5% to economic growth in 2024, directly boosting GDP by 2.2 percentage points[4] - The focus of consumption is shifting from "existence" to "quality," indicating a transition from material to spiritual needs[2] - The potential for consumption growth is significant, as China's consumption rate remains low compared to developed countries and even some lower-income nations[10] Group 2: Statistical Framework - The current consumption statistical system consists of four key indicators: Social Retail Sales, Final Consumption Expenditure, Urban-Rural Integrated Household Survey, and Service Retail Sales[16] - Social Retail Sales captures the retail and dining consumption of residents and social groups, but excludes service consumption beyond dining and is influenced by commodity price fluctuations[18] - Final Consumption Expenditure includes both household and government spending, providing a comprehensive view but is updated annually and may underreport certain consumption types[22] - The Urban-Rural Integrated Household Survey reflects consumption behavior and savings rates but does not account for government or social group consumption[31] - Service Retail Sales, introduced in 2023, aims to fill gaps in service consumption statistics, covering various service sectors but only includes monetary transactions[38]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the computer industry [1] Core Insights - The GTC conference hosted by NVIDIA focuses on the latest advancements in high-performance computing, with the introduction of the Blackwell Ultra architecture, which offers a 1.5x performance improvement over its predecessor [4] - The new GB300 NVL72 system integrates 72 B300 GPUs and 36 Grace CPUs, enhancing inference computing capabilities with a 50% increase in FP4 computing performance and a 50% increase in memory capacity from 192GB to 288GB [4] - The adoption of liquid cooling technology is expected to rise due to the GB300's thermal design power (TDP) of 1.4kW, which is a 16.7% increase from the previous model [4] - The GB300's power management system is upgraded, with the backup battery unit (BBU) becoming a standard feature, ensuring stable power supply during outages [4] - Investment opportunities are highlighted in server ODM manufacturers, liquid cooling supply chains, and server power manufacturers, including companies like Industrial Fulian, Invec, and Magtech [4] Summary by Sections Event Overview - The GTC conference took place from March 17 to 21, 2025, in San Jose, California, where NVIDIA's CEO Jensen Huang presented on high-performance computing advancements [4] Product Launch - NVIDIA launched the Blackwell Ultra architecture, which significantly enhances performance for complex workloads, particularly in inference computing [4] Technology Advancements - The GB300 NVL72 system features a substantial performance boost and increased memory capacity, indicating a shift towards more efficient computing solutions [4] Market Implications - The report suggests that the shift to liquid cooling and upgraded power systems will create new demand in the computing infrastructure market, benefiting various suppliers [4]

Group 1: Policy Overview - The "Consumption Boost Special Action Plan" was released on March 16, 2025, marking a significant macro policy milestone aimed at enhancing consumer spending[3] - The plan emphasizes a shift from investment-driven growth to consumption-driven growth, with notable increases in public budget allocations for education, social security, housing, and health care[3] - The plan features four key characteristics: high-level design, comprehensive approach, demand focus, and practical measures[3] Group 2: Key Features - High-level design indicates a coordinated and consistent policy support for consumption, with local governments encouraged to shift focus from production to consumption[3] - The comprehensive approach addresses all aspects of consumption, including increasing disposable income, enhancing social security, and improving the consumption environment[3] - Demand focus is highlighted by a significant increase in direct consumption subsidies, with a projected multiplier effect of 2.1 for the 2024 fiscal subsidies[4] Group 3: Financial Implications - The plan includes a proposed 5000 yuan one-time subsidy for second children and 10000 yuan for third children, with monthly subsidies of 800 yuan per child, amounting to approximately 230 billion yuan in total subsidies[4] - The fiscal support for consumption is expected to drive a consumption growth rate of over 1.2% in 2025, particularly through the "old-for-new" consumption policy[4] - In the first two months of 2025, retail sales of consumer goods grew by 4.0%, with significant increases in categories like communication equipment (26.2%) and home appliances (10.9%) due to the new policies[4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2]. Core Insights - The company is advancing its digital transformation strategy, significantly enhancing efficiency in publishing and distribution through technological innovations, such as the "Kuafu AI" platform, which has improved operational efficiency by over 50% [5]. - The company is deepening its IP operation strategy, creating a new cultural consumption ecosystem by linking various media formats and developing a comprehensive IP value chain [5]. - The core publishing business remains stable, while digital and IP derivative businesses are expected to contribute to performance growth, supported by the application of AI technologies [5]. Financial Performance Forecast - Projected revenue for 2024 is 1,687.48 million yuan, with a slight decline of 1.72% year-on-year, followed by a recovery with expected growth rates of 3.72%, 5.18%, and 6.63% for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 118.67 million yuan in 2024, with a growth of 1.99%, and is expected to rise significantly to 165.08 million yuan in 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 39.11% [2]. - The gross profit margin is projected to improve from 38.96% in 2024 to 41.13% by 2027, indicating a positive trend in profitability [2]. Market Data - As of March 17, 2025, the closing price of the company's stock is 33.44 yuan, with a market capitalization of 6.4 billion yuan [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the chemical industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The chemical industry is experiencing weak fluctuations, but there are structural opportunities to seize [1] - The report highlights that the valuation of the basic chemical industry is at a relatively low level since 2014, indicating medium to long-term allocation value [3][4] - It suggests that the demand potential in the domestic market is expected to be fully released as policy stimulus effects gradually manifest and terminal industry recovery strengthens in 2025 [3][4] Summary by Sections Oil Market - As of March 14, Brent and WTI oil prices reached $70.58 and $67.18 per barrel, respectively, with increases of 0.31% and 0.21% compared to the previous week [7][9] - Year-to-date, Brent and WTI prices have decreased by 5.44% and 6.33% respectively [9] Inventory Conversion - The average inventory conversion loss for crude oil this week is -355 CNY/ton, while for propane, it is -237 CNY/ton [14] Price Changes - Among 170 tracked chemical products, 43 saw price increases (25.3%), while 76 experienced declines (44.7%) [18] - Notable price increases were observed in products such as diammonium phosphate (up 3.7%) and calcium carbide (up 2.8%) [18][19] Price Spread Changes - In the 130 tracked products, 41 price spreads increased (31.5%), while 84 decreased (64.6%) [26] - The price spread for phthalic anhydride increased by 156.5% due to supply reductions and cost support [26][27]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the banking sector, highlighting its investment value amidst ongoing macroeconomic support measures [40]. Core Insights - The banking sector underperformed the market, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.59% while the banking sector only increased by 1.41% [5]. - Financial data for February shows a significant increase in social financing, driven by government bonds, while corporate credit demand remains weak [8][9]. - The introduction of new policies aimed at boosting consumer finance is expected to benefit retail banking operations [12]. - The recent acquisition of shares in CITIC Bank by insurance capital indicates a positive outlook for the banking sector, attracting long-term funds [15]. - Ping An Bank reported a decline in revenue and net profit due to strategic adjustments, but its non-performing loan generation rate decreased [17][21]. Summary by Sections Latest Research Insights - February's financial data indicates a year-on-year increase in social financing by 737.4 billion yuan, with a total of 2.23 trillion yuan added [8]. - Government bonds contributed significantly to social financing growth, with 1.7 trillion yuan issued in February, up 1.1 trillion yuan year-on-year [9]. Market Performance - The banking sector's price-to-book (PB) ratio stands at 0.66, with a dividend yield of 6.49%, indicating a discount compared to the overall A-share market [32]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests continued support for social financing through government bonds and consumer finance initiatives, which are expected to enhance credit quality and banking operations [40]. - Specific stock recommendations include Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (601398), China Construction Bank (601939), Postal Savings Bank of China (601658), Jiangsu Bank (600919), and Changshu Bank (601128) [40].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [2][9]. Core Insights - The company has achieved impressive results in its international expansion, securing new project orders from renowned global automotive brands such as TATA MOTORS, VOLKSWAGEN, and TOYOTA, among others. The overseas revenue for 2024 reached 1.708 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.89%, with overseas order scale exceeding 5 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of over 120% [2]. - The smart driving business has significantly contributed to the company's revenue growth, with 2024 revenue from this segment reaching 7.314 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 63.06%, accounting for 26.48% of total revenue. The company has a robust order backlog, with annualized sales from new project orders nearing 10 billion yuan [6][9]. - The company is also expanding its production capacity internationally, with a smart factory in Spain under construction, expected to be completed by the end of 2025 and to start supplying smart cockpit and smart driving products in 2026 [2][6]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 27.618 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 26.06%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.005 billion yuan, up 29.62% year-on-year. The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 was 3.63 yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 29.18% [6][11]. - The company forecasts revenue growth for the next three years, with expected revenues of 34.488 billion yuan in 2025, 41.850 billion yuan in 2026, and 49.360 billion yuan in 2027, alongside net profits of 2.710 billion yuan, 3.524 billion yuan, and 4.495 billion yuan respectively [9][11]. - The gross profit margin for 2024 was reported at 19.88%, with a slight decrease expected in the following years, stabilizing around 19.49% to 19.86% [11]. Business Segment Performance - The smart cockpit business generated revenue of 18.230 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 15.36%, with new project orders exceeding 16 billion yuan annually [6]. - The connected services and other business segments achieved revenue of 2.074 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 27.99% [6]. Future Projections - The company is projected to maintain a strong growth trajectory, with expected revenue growth rates of 24.87% in 2025, 21.35% in 2026, and 17.94% in 2027 [9][11]. - The projected EPS for the next three years is expected to rise to 4.88 yuan in 2025, 6.35 yuan in 2026, and 8.10 yuan in 2027 [9][11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the real estate industry [2]. Core Viewpoints - The report indicates a significant recovery in sales decline, with a notable narrowing of the investment decline in the real estate sector [4][5]. - The government has introduced various supportive policies aimed at stabilizing the real estate market, which are expected to gradually show positive effects [7][29]. - The overall industry valuation is anticipated to rise as the market stabilizes and policies continue to be implemented [40][46]. Sales Summary - In January-February 2025, the total sales area of commercial housing reached 107.46 million square meters, a year-on-year decline of 5.10%, which is a reduction of 7.8 percentage points compared to the entire year of 2024 [7][12]. - The total sales amount for the same period was 1,025.9 billion yuan, down 2.60% year-on-year, with a reduction of 14.50 percentage points compared to the previous month [7][12]. - The average sales price in January-February 2025 was 9,547 yuan per square meter, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.63% [7][12]. Investment Summary - Real estate development investment in January-February 2025 was 1,072 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year decline of 9.80%, which is a narrowing of 0.80 percentage points compared to 2024 [18]. - New construction area in January-February 2025 was 66.14 million square meters, down 29.60% year-on-year, with the decline expanding due to seasonal factors [21]. - The completed area in the same period was 87.64 million square meters, down 15.60% year-on-year, with a significant narrowing of the decline by 12.10 percentage points compared to the previous month [25]. Funding Summary - The total funds received by real estate companies in January-February 2025 amounted to 1,557.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 3.60%, which is a reduction of 13.40 percentage points compared to the entire year of 2024 [29]. - Domestic loans during this period were 295.4 billion yuan, down 6.10% year-on-year, while self-raised funds were 523.3 billion yuan, down 2.10% [29]. - The establishment of a real estate financing coordination mechanism in January 2024 has led to the approval of over 6 trillion yuan in loans, which is expected to alleviate liquidity pressures for real estate companies [29]. Investment Recommendations - The report highlights several key companies with strong operational management and financial advantages, including Poly Developments, China Merchants Shekou, Longfor Group, and others [46]. - It suggests focusing on quality developers such as Greentown China, China Resources Land, and China Overseas Development, as well as quality property management and commercial companies [46].