Economic Overview - In May 2024, the Shanghai Composite Index stood at 3015.8907, while the CSI 300 Index was at 3536.1986, and the Shenzhen Component Index reached 9281.2537[2] - The overall economic operation in China is stable, with notable structural characteristics, including steady recovery in consumption and robust industrial production, while real estate investment remains a significant drag[2] Consumption Trends - Retail sales in May 2024 showed a year-on-year increase of +3.7%, up by 1.4 percentage points from April, and a month-on-month increase of +0.51%, up by 0.45 percentage points from April[9] - The cumulative retail sales growth for the first five months of 2024 was +4.1%, still significantly below pre-pandemic levels, indicating that consumer spending requires further recovery[9] Investment Insights - Fixed asset investment (FAI) in May 2024 grew by +3.4%, down by 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, with manufacturing investment at +9.4%, infrastructure investment at +3.78%, and real estate investment declining by -11.0%[27] - High-tech manufacturing investment recorded a growth of +10.4% in the first five months, significantly higher than the overall manufacturing investment growth[47] Real Estate Sector - Real estate investment in May 2024 decreased by -10.0%, with residential, office, and commercial property investments down by -10.9%, -18.3%, and -13.2% respectively[50] - The inventory of commercial housing stood at 2.348 billion square meters, with a depletion cycle of 33.2 months, indicating ongoing challenges in the real estate market[33] Infrastructure Investment - Infrastructure investment in May 2024 was +3.8%, down by 2.1 percentage points from April, with a cumulative growth of +6.7% for the first five months[34] - The issuance of special bonds increased significantly in May, reaching 438.3 billion yuan, the highest monthly issuance this year, which is expected to support future infrastructure investment growth[53] Industrial Production - The industrial added value in May 2024 grew by +5.6%, slightly below market expectations, with a cumulative growth of +6.2% for the first five months[76] - The performance of industrial production has shown signs of slowing, with only five out of seventeen sub-industries reporting an increase in growth compared to April[78]

| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------|------------------------------------------------------|--------------------------------------------------------------|-------|-------|------------------------------------------------------------| | | | | | | | | | | 报告摘要 | | | 作者 | | | | 核心观点: | | | 董忠云 分析师 | | | | ◆ 5月经济数据分化,生产端延续稳定态势,需求端持续弱复苏。结 | | | SAC执业证书:S0640515120001 | | | | | | | 联系电话:010-59562478 | | | | 合权益市场表现来看,弱复苏态势下哑铃策略受到青睐,同时生产 | | | 邮箱:dongzy@avicsec.com | | | | 端计算机、通信和其他电子设备制造业的持续高景气度也与近期的 | ...

◆ 天马科技 大禹生物 润农节水 华资实业 乖宝宠物 涨幅前五 13.8% 9.8% 4.9% 3.2% 3.0% 朗源股份 平潭发展 鹏都农牧 华英农业 西王食品 跌幅前五 -12.7% -12.3% -9.8% -9.3% -8.6% 资料来源：iFind，中航证券研究所整理 ◆ ◆ 【 。 ...

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行业报告：先进制造行业周报 2024年6月22日 “纯血鸿蒙”启动测试，鸿蒙原生智能对标Apple Intelligence 行业评级：增持 分析师：邹润芳 证券执业证书号：S0640521040001 ...

◆ 300 30% ◆ 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% ◆ -30% -40% 23-06 23-09 23-11 24-01 24-04 24-06 ◆ ◆ ◆ ...

300 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% -30% -40% 23-06 23-08 23-11 24-01 24-04 24-06 ...

联系电话：010-59219558 传真：010-59562637 2024年06月18日 证券研究报告|宏观研究|宏观深度 金融市场分析周报 (2024.06.11-2024.06.14) | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------|----------------------------------------------------------------|-------|------------------|--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-----------| | | 报告摘要 | | 主要数据 | | | | | | | 上证指数 | | 3015.8907 | | ● | CPI/PPI：内需疲软继续拖累商品价格,食品价格同比降幅有所收 | | 沪深 300 | | 3536.1986 | | | 窄,非食品价格增速回落,CPI 同比维持在低位;大宗商品价格高位 | | 深证成指 | | 92 ...

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