相关研究报告 中航策略周报：《阿里 Capex 重回扩张期确 认产业趋势，科技股或将进入拥挤度"失效 期"——科特估系列专题（四）》 中航策略周报：《中航证券首席经济学家董 忠云：DeepSeek 引发中国科技股重估进行到 哪个阶段了？——科特估系列专题（三）》 中航策略周报：《DeepSeek 引发全球资本对 中国科技股重估，春节行情有望迎来主升 浪》 中航策略周报：《大事不过年，只争朝夕， 春节行情有望持续》 中航策略周报：《海外不确定因素阶段性落 地，春节行情或已提前启动》 中航策略周报：《今年有望再次演绎春节行 市场走势： 2900 3400 3900 4400 4900 2600 2900 3200 3500 3800 2022-05 2022-08 2022-11 2023-02 2023-05 2023-08 2023-11 2024-02 2024-05 2024-08 2024-11 2025-02 上证指数 沪深300 中航证券研究所发布 证券研究报告 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 2025 年 3 月 1 日 证券研究报告|策略研究|策略点评 两会政策预期升温，聚焦扩内需与科技 报告 ...

| 涨幅前五 | 田野股份 | 大禹生物 | 宏辉果蔬 | 福成股份 | 雪榕生物 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 19.9% | 12.5% | 12.1% | 8.7% | 7.9% | | 跌幅前五 | 秋乐种业 | 神农种业 | 荃银高科 | 润农节水 | 中基健康 | | | -11.8% | -10.6% | -10.5% | -10.2% | -8.9% | 资料来源：iFinD，中航证券研究所整理 ◆ ◆ [证券研究报告] 关注生猪板块具备长期配置价值。一是股价先于周期,生猪板块估值水平处于 历史低位。截至 2 月 28 日，万得猪产业指数为 886.00 点，整体 PB 估值 2.61 倍， 处于历史 2.86%分位点，估值具备较好性价比。二是生猪行业优势企业红利属性增 强。长期稳态下生猪养殖产业整体将保持一定的利润水平,而行业具备养殖管理和成 本优势的企业望保持较好盈利能力。优质养殖企业重视并不断提升股东回报,生猪板 块优质标的的长期红利属性和配置价值有望愈加显著。〈例如，牧原股份在 24 年修订 了股东分红回报规划,将每年以现金方式 ...

行业报告:先进制造行业周报 2025年3月3日 中航证券有限公司 AVIC SECURITIES CO., LTD. Figure机器人快速迭代,北京市率先出台具身智能行动计划 行业评级:增持 分析师：邹润芳 证券执业证书号：S0640521040001 分析师：闫智 证券执业证书号：S0640524070001 分析师:卢正羽 证券执业证书号：S0640521060001 中航证券研究所发布 证券研究报告 请务必阅读正文后的免责条款部分 股市有风险 入市需谨慎 中航先进制造- -- 投资观点 ■ 重点推荐：北特科技、兆威机电、恒立液压、组威股份、三花智控、鸣志电器、莱斯信息、纳睿雷达、万马科技、軟通动力 ■ 重点跟踪行业: ■ 核心个股组合：北特科技、兆威机电、恒立液压、纽威股份、三花智控、双林股份、鸣志电器、五洲新春、莱斯信息、纳睿雷达、中信海直、软通 动力、航锦科技、华伍股份、华阳集团、万马科技、绿的谐波、埃斯顿 ■ 本周专题研究：近期人形机器人产业链催化频出：1）Figure：2月27日，Figure AI更新机器人实测视频，一批机器人在产线上熟练地分拣快递, 搭载Helix模型的机器人训练场景仅需3 ...

2025年03月01日 证券研究报告|行业研究|行业点评 医药生物 中航证券医药生物行业周报:商业险药品目录 体系开启,创新药械支付空间有塑打开 报告摘要 投资要点: 本期 (02.22-03.01) 上证指数收于 3320.90, 下跌 1.72%; 沪深 300 指数收于 3890.05，下跌 2.22%；中小 100 指数收于 3890.05，下 跌 3.78%;本期申万医药行业指数收于 7302.50, 下跌 2.72%,在申万 31 个一级行业指数中涨跌幅排名居第 23 位。其中,中药、医药商业、 化学制剂、生物制品、医疗服务、原料药、医疗器械的周涨跌幅分别为 -0.76%、-3.57%、1.45%、-2.36%、-7.94%、4.72%、-3.44%。 重要资讯: ◆ 两类支架耗材集采即将来袭 2 月 25 日,河北省医保局发布《关于开展胸主动脉支架、腹主动脉 支架两类医用耗材产品介绍的通知》。 2024年7月,河北省曾在《河北省医疗保障局关于公告 6 类血管介 入类医用耗材介绍企业的通知》中提及胸主动脉支架,但在后续的正式 采购中并未将其纳入。根据本次河北省医保局发布的通知,将正式对胸 主动脉支 ...

2025年03月01日 证券研究报告|行业研究|行业点评 社会服务行业·周观点 游戏政策环境渐趋友好,"AI+出海"助力行业景气度提升 ◆ 核心观点: 杭州、上海发布游戏利好政策,版号持续发放加速。游戏版号发放 数量2022年后触底反弹,2024年新发放版号1416个/同比+31.72%。 2025年2月21日国家新闻出版署公告2月份国产游戏版号及进口游 戏版号,共有110款国产游戏和3款进口游戏过审,版号发放数量继 续维持高位。 2024年中国移动游戏的出海游戏收入占比前五的国家分别为美国、 日本、韩国、德国和英国,其中美国市场的出海游戏收入占比最高, 达到31.06%、日韩以17.32%和8.89%的占比分列二三。美/日/韩23 年中国出海游戏收入增速分别为-5.1%/4.0%/10.8%、24年增速分 别提升至9.2%/4.9%/16.4%，主要市场增速可观，国产游戏竞争力 持续增强,有望进一步抢占市场份额。根据伽马数据,2024年,全 球游戏市场规模为12163.35亿元，同比增长3.31%，中国自主研发 游戏在海外市场的实际销售收入为185.57亿美元,同比增长 13.39%，在连续两年下降后出现较 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the pharmaceutical and biotechnology industry [3]. Core Insights - The report highlights the recovery process of the CXO sector, driven by a rebound in global healthcare investment and the potential of AI in drug development [6][9]. - The FDA has granted priority review status to Chimerix's potential "first-in-class" small molecule drug, dordaviprone, for treating recurrent H3 K27M mutant diffuse glioma, with a projected review completion by August 18, 2025 [2][42]. Market Performance Review - During the period from February 15 to February 22, 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.97%, while the pharmaceutical industry index increased by 0.96%, ranking 8th among 31 primary industry indices [1][16]. - The weekly performance of various segments within the pharmaceutical industry showed mixed results, with traditional Chinese medicine and pharmaceutical commerce declining by 2.30% and 1.50%, respectively, while medical services saw a significant increase of 6.87% [1][16]. CXO Sector Recovery - Global healthcare investment is showing signs of recovery, with a total investment of $57.747 billion in 2024, a decline of only 1% compared to the previous year, indicating a significant improvement from a 34% drop in 2023 [7]. - The report notes that the failure of the 2024 Biodefense Act to pass may alleviate valuation pressures on CXO companies, which had been a significant concern for the market [8][24]. AI Empowerment in Drug Development - The rise of artificial intelligence is expected to transform drug development, addressing challenges such as long development cycles and high costs, thereby creating new opportunities in the sector [9][26]. - The report emphasizes that companies that achieve breakthroughs in AI applications within the CXO industry will gain competitive advantages in future drug development [9][26]. Notable Industry News - The release of the RuiPath pathology model by Ruijin Hospital, in collaboration with Huawei, marks a significant advancement in the integration of AI into medical diagnostics, enhancing efficiency and accuracy in pathology [2][40]. - The potential of dordaviprone as a treatment for a specific type of brain tumor is underscored by its clinical trial results, which showed a 28% objective response rate and a median duration of response of 10.4 months [42].

2025年02月22日 证券研究报告|行业研究|行业点评 医药生物 中航证券医药生物行业周报:CXO 复苏进程开 启,AI 赋能新药研发潜力可期 报告摘要 投资要点: 本期（02.15-02.22）上证指数收于 3379.11，上涨 0.97%；沪深 300 指数收于 3978.44，上涨 1.00%；中小 100 指数收于 3978.44，上 涨 0.75%；本期申万医药行业指数收于 7438.61，上涨 0.96%，在在申 万 31 个一级行业指数中涨跌幅排名居第 8 位。其中，中药、医药商业、 化学制剂、生物制品、医疗服务、原料药、医疗器械的周涨跌幅分别为 -2.30%、-1.50%、0.46%、0.10%、6.87%、-0.32%、1.12%。 重要资讯: ◆ 华为+瑞金医院、重磅发布瑞智病理大模型 RuiPath 2025年２月18日，上海交通大学医学院附属瑞金医院举办了"2025 医疗人工智能与精准诊疗发展论坛"。 论坛上,瑞金医院发布了瑞智病理大模型 RuiPath, 该大模型基于 华为 DCS AI 解决方案，是带领医疗行业从数字化病理升级到智能化病 理的成果之一，将在病理诊断场景下加速医疗智 ...

Investment Rating - The report rates the media industry as "Overweight" [1] Core Insights - The media sector is expected to gradually enter a new phase of "self-control" in 2025, driven by the emergence of high-quality applications and business models [3] - The report highlights the significant impact of AI on various segments of the media industry, including cinema, publishing, gaming, and advertising [3] Summary by Sections Media Industry Overview - From February 14, 2024, to February 14, 2025, the media copyright market experienced a cumulative decline of 19.35%, ranking 8th out of 31 sectors in the Shenwan index, outperforming the CSI 300 by 4.55% and the ChiNext by 2.22% [3] - As of February 14, 2025, the media sector's price-to-book (PB) ratio stands at 38 times, significantly above the historical average of 26 times since 2019 [3] Sub-Sectors Analysis - **Cinema**: The cinema industry faced challenges in 2024 due to a lack of quality supply, but the 2025 Spring Festival box office is expected to perform well, indicating strong demand for quality content [3][17] - **Publishing**: The publishing sector remains stable, with AI accelerating new business layouts. Changes in tax policies may pose risks, but leading companies still offer high investment value [3][20] - **Gaming**: The gaming industry is seeing normalized issuance of domestic game licenses, with AI enhancing the entire gaming value chain [3] - **Advertising**: The advertising sector is maintaining steady growth, with overseas marketing and AI expected to open new growth avenues [3][25] AI Applications and Market Trends - The report emphasizes that 2025 may become a pivotal year for consumer-facing AI applications, with significant advancements in AI models like DeepSeek and the rapid growth of user engagement in applications like Doubao [3][37] - The cultural export of Chinese media, including web literature, web dramas, and online games, is anticipated to gain momentum, reflecting national confidence and soft power [3][54] Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies in marketing (e.g., Meiri Interactive, BlueFocus), gaming (e.g., Kaiying Network, ShengTian Network), and educational technology (e.g., Jiafa Education, Quantu Education) as potential investment opportunities [3]

Core Insights - Alibaba's capital expenditure plan significantly exceeds expectations, with projected investments in cloud and AI infrastructure over the next three years expected to surpass the total of the past decade [2][7] - The Chinese AI industry is likely to enter a large-scale expansion phase, driven by increased capital expenditure and the competitive landscape established by models like DeepSeek [8][25] - The recent meeting on private enterprises, attended by the General Secretary, is expected to lead to rapid policy implementation, particularly focusing on technology and expanding domestic demand [13][15] Summary by Sections Alibaba's Capital Expenditure - Alibaba's CEO stated that the primary goal in AI strategy is achieving AGI, which could potentially impact or replace about 50% of current GDP components [7] - The company anticipates a clear and substantial demand for AI infrastructure, committing to investments that will exceed the last ten years combined [7] Market Trends and Policy Implications - Historical data shows that after the 2018 private enterprise meeting, the overall market trend was upward, with the CSI Technology Index rising by 42.51% [15] - The current policy environment is expected to support the revitalization of entrepreneurial spirit among private enterprises, particularly in technology sectors [15][19] Investment Opportunities - The report indicates that the current phase of the AI industry may have entered an "overcrowding failure period," where high investment levels do not lead to immediate corrections in stock prices [25][20] - The report suggests that the valuation of Chinese technology stocks is undergoing a significant reassessment, with global capital increasingly betting on these assets [8][25]

Inflation and Federal Reserve Policy - U.S. CPI increased year-on-year by 2.6%, 2.7%, 2.9%, and 3.0% from October 2024 to January 2025, indicating persistent inflation pressure[1] - Core CPI remained stable at 3.3% for three consecutive months, reflecting underlying inflation resilience[1] - The Federal Reserve acknowledges that further rate cuts require a clear downward trend in inflation[1] Market Expectations and Rate Cuts - As of February 23, the market anticipates a potential 50 basis points (BP) rate cut from the Federal Reserve this year[2] - The CME data indicates increasing volatility in market expectations regarding rate cuts due to inflation risks[2] REITs Market Performance - The China Securities REITs Index rose by 1.23%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index, which increased by 0.97%[3] - The transportation infrastructure sector led with an average weekly increase of 3.79%, while the rental housing sector saw a decline of 0.49%[3] Liquidity and Trading Activity - Average daily trading volume reached 9.53 billion yuan, up 2.91% from the previous week[4] - The average turnover rate was recorded at 1.30%, slightly lower than the previous week's 1.43%[4]