6 证券研究报告 点评报告 2025 年 12 月 5 日 晨会纪要 核[心Ta观bl点e_：Summary] 第一创业证券研究所 一、产业综合组： 根据路透社新闻，AMD 首席执行官苏姿丰表示，该公司已获得向中国出口部分 MI 308 芯片的许可，如果出口这些芯片，公司准备向美国政府缴纳 15%的税款。这基 本符合美国总统特朗普 8 月表示其政府已与英伟达和 AMD 达成协议的说法。目前 美国国会正在讨论对中国的芯片出口管制问题，英伟达的 CEO 也在近日表示中国 不需要"阉割"的芯片，从上述动态看，后续特朗普放松 AI 芯片对华出口的概率 在持续上升，配合国内算力芯片的进展，我们认为这都有利于国内 AI 应用的探索 和发展，降低市场对当前 AI 投资泡沫化的忧虑。 世界黄金协会(WGC)周四发布的报告预计，2026 年黄金价格有望再上涨 15%至 30%。 WGC 指出，美债收益率下行、地缘政治风险高企以及显著增强的避险需求叠加， 将为黄金提供极为强劲的顺风。结合近期银、铜、锡、钨、铜铝等有色小品种和 大宗有色金属都有创出新高的价格，我们继续看好有色金属行业高景气度的持续。 风险提示： 对上述事件发展趋势 ...

6 证券研究报告 晨会纪要 核[心Ta观bl点e_：Summary] 第一创业证券研究所 一、宏观经济组： 事件： 12 月 5 日（星期三）晚 9 点 15 分美国 ADP 公司公布 10 月 ADP 就业（"小非农"） 数据；晚 11 点美国 ISM 公布公布 10 月服务业 PMI 数据； 评论： 美国 11 月服务业 PMI 为 52.4%，预期为 52%，前值 10 月为 52.6%。其中，新订单 为 52.9%，较 10 月回落 3.1 个百分点；物价指数为 65.4%，较 10 月回落 4.6 个百 分点；就业指数为 48.9%，虽较上月回升 0.7 个百分点，但仍连续第六个月处于 收缩区间。 美国 ADP"小非农"数据，11 月为减少 3.1 万人，预期增加 0.5 万人，前值 10 月由增加 4.2 万人调整为增加 4.7 万人。虽然 ADP 非农数据和美国劳工部劳动统 计局公布的非农数据变动有时并不一致，但由于前期美国政府关门的影响，官方 9 月数据还未公布完，官方 11 月劳动力市场数据要到 12 月 16 日才能公布，因而 这份报告是美联储 12 月 10 日议息会议前能获得的最后一分 ...

Group 1: Energy Sector - Jerry Holdings announced a new gas turbine generator sales contract exceeding $100 million with a significant North American client, following a previous $100 million order for data center generators [3] - Siemens Energy and Mitsubishi Heavy Industries forecast that global gas turbine demand will exceed 70 GW by 2025, with growth primarily in the U.S. due to its natural gas advantages [3] - The report anticipates an increase in the prosperity of the gas turbine and its upstream industries, including high-temperature alloys and blades, as they address electricity supply issues driven by AI-induced demand [3] Group 2: Semiconductor Industry - The World Semiconductor Trade Statistics (WSTS) has raised its estimate for the global semiconductor market size in 2025 by approximately $45 billion to $772 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 22% [3] - WSTS further predicts that the semiconductor market will reach $975 billion in 2026, achieving over 25% year-on-year growth, approaching the $1 trillion mark [3] - The report expresses optimism regarding the sustained high prosperity of the global semiconductor industry chain, including upstream equipment and materials [3] Group 3: Advanced Manufacturing - Star Materials has increased the price of wet-process separators by 30%, with leading companies like Enjie, Xingyuan, and Jinli operating at full capacity [6] - The average price increase for downstream customers is between 0.1 to 0.2 yuan per square meter, with the industry’s profit in Q3 2025 being below 0.05 yuan per square meter [6] - The report suggests that the recent surge in energy storage demand has positively impacted the separator industry, indicating a potential rise in its prosperity [6] Group 4: Energy Storage - Fluence, a U.S. energy storage company, reported $1.4 billion in new orders for Q4, bringing its total backlog to $5.3 billion, with delivery timelines extending to two years [7] - The CEO highlighted that data center projects are a significant growth area, with demand driven by flexible grid connections, backup power, and power quality [7] - The report notes that the Australian market is a major contributor to Fluence's orders, accounting for nearly half of Q4's new contracts, indicating a strong demand for energy storage solutions [7] Group 5: Consumer Sector - In the beauty sector, Juzhi Biotechnology's core brand, Kefu Mei, underperformed during the Double Eleven shopping festival [9] - The company received approval for a new medical device and plans to launch at least six new products under its core brands in 2026, suggesting potential future growth [9] - In the gaming sector, client games saw a 20% year-on-year increase in Q3, driven by popular titles and a rich product pool for the upcoming year, indicating a positive outlook for cultural output and cross-platform gaming products [9]

Macro Economic Group - The US manufacturing PMI for November is reported at 48.2%, below the expected 49% and the previous month's 48.7%, indicating a "strong supply and weak demand" scenario [4] - The output index for November is at 51.4%, a recovery of 3.2 percentage points from October, returning to the expansion zone [4] - New orders index for November is at 47.4%, down 2 percentage points from the previous month, while new export orders are at 46.2%, indicating contraction [4] - The employment index is at 44%, down 2 percentage points from last month, reflecting a decline in employment [4] - The price index is at 58.5%, showing upward pressure on prices despite a slight increase of 0.5 percentage points from the previous month [4] Industry Comprehensive Group - Doubao launched the Doubao Mobile Assistant, demonstrating AI Agent applications with Nubia smartphones, which significantly ease users' daily tasks [7] - The collaboration smartphone priced at 3499 yuan quickly sold out, indicating strong market interest despite some performance issues in complex tasks [7] - The emergence of this application model alleviates investor concerns about an AI investment bubble, suggesting a positive outlook for the AI sector [7] Advanced Manufacturing Group - Research indicates that the revenue models and demand trends for independent energy storage stations vary across eight provinces, with investment returns generally exceeding 8%, and some reaching 10%-15% [10] - The investment logic in the energy storage sector is shifting from relying on subsidies to identifying system bottlenecks [10] - The high prosperity of the energy storage industry is expected to first manifest in rapid installation growth, followed by intense competition in the equipment sector [10] Consumer Group - Macau's GGR recovery rate for November reached 92.2%, the highest in 2023, indicating strong high-end demand and reinforcing growth logic in the sector [12] - The performance of the luxury goods sector is expected to improve, supported by positive trends in international tourism and high hotel occupancy rates [12] - The e-commerce sector saw a significant increase, with Ruoyuchen's self-owned brand sales surging 35 times year-on-year, validating the success of its brand incubation strategy [13]

6 证券研究报告 点评报告 2025 年 12 月 1 日 晨会纪要 核[心Ta观bl点e_：Summary] 第一创业证券研究所 一、宏观经济组： 分析师：刘笑瑜 证书编号：S1080525070001 电话：0755-23838239 邮箱：liuxiaoyu@fcsc.com 事件： 11 月非制造业 PMI 指数为 49.5%，较上月回落 0.6 个百分点，是 2023 年以来首次 回落至收缩区间。其中，服务业为 49.5%，较上月回落 0.7 个百分点；而建筑业 为 49.6%，较上月回升 0.5 个百分点，连续 4 个月处于 50%以下的收缩区间。11 月综合 PMI 产出指数为 49.7%，较 10 月回落 0.3 百分点，也是 2023 年以来首次 回落至收缩区间。 请务必阅读正文后免责条款部分 第 1 页 共 4 页 晨会纪要 11 月 30 日 9 点半国家统计局公布 11 月 PMI 数据。 评论： 11月中国制造业PMI为49.2%，较上月回升0.2个百分点。其中，大型企业为49.3%， 较上月回落 0.6 个百分点；中型企业为 48.9%，较上月回升 0.2 个百分点；小型 企业为 ...

Macro Economic Overview - In the first ten months of the year, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size reached 5.95 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.9%, although it fell by 1.3 percentage points compared to the first nine months, marking the second-highest point in a year [5] - The manufacturing sector saw a year-on-year growth of 7.7% in the first ten months, down 2.2 percentage points from the first nine months [5] - In October, the profit of industrial enterprises decreased by 5.5% year-on-year, a significant drop from the 21.6% growth in September, with manufacturing profits declining by 10.6% [5] Industry Performance - The profit growth rates varied across industries, with upstream sectors showing divergence, downstream sectors performing poorly, and midstream sectors faring better [6] - Industries with higher year-on-year growth rates in the first ten months included non-ferrous metals, transportation equipment manufacturing, and electronic equipment manufacturing, while coal, steel, and textile industries lagged behind [6] - Specific profit growth rates for various industries in October compared to September and the first ten months are detailed in the report [7] Consumer and Economic Policy - The National Development and Reform Commission emphasized the need to increase residents' income and consumption rates, indicating a shift in policy focus towards enhancing consumer spending rather than fixed asset investment [9] - Recent policy changes, such as extending maternity leave and increasing marriage leave, are expected to boost consumer spending, presenting investment opportunities in consumer-related sectors in the coming years [9] Technological Developments - A meeting on the construction of a space data center revealed plans to build a large-scale data center system in low Earth orbit, with significant technological advancements expected between 2025 and 2035 [10] - The commercial space sector is anticipated to gain attention as applications continue to expand, particularly in the context of AI and energy shortages [10] Company-Specific Developments - Jerry Holdings recently signed a sales contract for gas turbine generator sets for data centers in North America, valued at over 100 million USD, indicating strong demand for gas turbines as a solution to power shortages [11] - The company has established a solid technical foundation in gas turbines and has collaborated with Siemens, suggesting a positive outlook for the gas turbine supply chain [11]

Group 1: Industry Overview - The A-share communication equipment industry index saw a significant increase, with a peak rise of over 8%, primarily driven by the surge in stock prices of optical module companies like Zhongji Xuchuang. This increase is attributed to reports of Google placing a large number of urgent orders for optical modules in the supply chain, particularly focusing on 800G/1.6T high-speed optical modules [2] - Dell's Q3 FY2026 earnings call indicated a notable acceleration in AI growth, with a record backlog of $18.4 billion and a continuous increase in project reserves over the next five quarters, suggesting robust demand growth in the industry [2] - The upcoming Central Economic Work Conference and the Federal Reserve's December meeting are expected to create a favorable market environment, with an 85% probability of interest rate cuts, which could support a sustained rebound in the A-share market [2] Group 2: Consumer Sector Insights - Sanya City launched the sixth phase of duty-free consumption vouchers on November 19, 2025, which will run until December 31, 2025. The vouchers offer discounts ranging from "6000 minus 300" to "50000 minus 4000," aimed at stimulating consumer spending among eligible travelers and residents [6] - Historical data indicates that duty-free consumption vouchers have a significant leverage effect, often leading to multiple times increase in consumption and a notable rise in average transaction value. The vouchers can be combined with in-store promotions, further enhancing consumer spending potential [6] - The issuance of consumption vouchers and the resulting increase in foot traffic are expected to strengthen the price rebound logic post-price hikes, making local retail and service enterprises in Hainan well-positioned to benefit from this trend [6]

Macro Economic Group - The report indicates that the US PPI remained stable in September, with a month-on-month increase of 0.3%, matching expectations, while the core PPI rose by 0.1%, slightly below the expected 0.2% [5] - Retail sales in the US showed a disappointing performance in September, with a month-on-month increase of only 0.2%, below the expected 0.4%, indicating a weakening consumer spending momentum [5][6] - The report highlights a "K-shaped" recovery in consumer spending, with a decline in auto sales attributed to the expiration of electric vehicle tax credits, alongside a soft job market and low consumer confidence [6] Advanced Manufacturing Group - Goldman Sachs downgraded Ganfeng Lithium's H-share rating to "Sell," lowering the lithium price forecast for the second half of 2026 by 14% to $9,500 per ton due to weak downstream market feedback and slowing inventory replenishment [12] - The report predicts a 12% shortfall in global lithium capacity relative to demand in the second half of 2025, transitioning to a 10% surplus by the second half of 2026 [12] - The report remains optimistic about mid-term lithium demand and price stability, citing a projected 46% growth in energy storage battery demand in 2026 [12] Consumer Group - Bilibili reported Q3 total revenue of 7.69 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 4.8%, with adjusted net profit soaring by 233% to 786 million yuan [14][15] - The company achieved a GAAP operating profit of 354 million yuan, a significant turnaround from a loss of 66.7 million yuan in the same period last year, driven by cost reduction and efficiency improvements [15] - Advertising revenue grew by 23% year-on-year to 2.57 billion yuan, becoming the core growth engine for the company, while gaming revenue declined by 17% to 1.51 billion yuan due to high base effects from the previous year [15]

证券研究报告 行业研究 2025 年 11 月 24 日 行业龙头上调业绩指引，户外行业景气度不减 第一创业证券研究所 分析师：刘笑瑜 证书编号：S1080525070001 电话：0755-23838239 邮箱：liuxiaoyu@fcsc.com 请务必阅读正文后免责条款部分 第 1页共 4页 户外品牌龙头亚玛芬体育与昂跑 2025 年以来业绩表现亮眼，均多次上调财年 业绩指引。亚玛芬体育凭借"多品牌、跨区域、DTC 驱动"战略，2Q25 及 3Q25 调整后毛利率与 EBIT 率均超市场预期，收入指引持续上调，萨洛蒙、始祖鸟 等核心品牌及亚太、中国区域增速尤为突出；昂跑 3Q25 亚太地区净销售额增 速高达 109.2%。龙头企业的高增长与盈利扩张，印证了户外行业的高景气度。 国内户外市场正处于高速成长期，2019-2024 年高性能户外服饰市场 CAGR 达 13.8%，2025 年前三季度线上增速持续优于服装大盘。尽管中国户外运动参与 人数超 4 亿，但参与率仍低于欧美成熟市场，增长潜力充足。行业竞争格局 分散，高端市场由国际品牌主导，专业国产品牌凭借功能优势、高性价比或 渠道创新在中端市场突围， ...

Macro Economic Group - The Federal Reserve is experiencing increasing internal disagreement regarding a potential interest rate cut in December, with notable dissenting votes from board members [3][4][5] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December has risen to 71%, up from less than 40% previously, following comments from key Federal Reserve officials [4] Industry Comprehensive Group - The power density of AI servers is advancing from 30kW to 100kW, leading to a consensus in the industry that the power supply architecture will evolve towards 800V high-voltage direct current [7] - There is a significant expectation gap regarding the pace and technical path of this transition, with 2025 identified as a "verification year" [7] - Traditional manufacturers face challenges from cross-industry competition, as the core technology of SST has shifted from traditional electromagnetic induction to power electronics, creating substantial technical barriers [7] - Investment recommendations focus on structural increments within the supply chain, advising to avoid negatively impacted traditional AC segments and to concentrate on three key benefiting areas: busbars, cabinet-level energy storage, and power modules [7] Advanced Manufacturing Group - Changxin Memory has launched its latest DDR5 memory series with speeds reaching 8000Mbps, a 25% improvement over the current market mainstream of 6400Mbps [9] - The introduction of 24Gb high-capacity chips surpasses the standard 16Gb capacity, indicating that domestic memory manufacturers are catching up with the latest DDR product technology [9] - The anticipated demand from AI is expected to boost the market for equipment and materials related to semiconductor wafer sales, particularly in memory [9] Consumer Group - Richemont Group's Q3 2025 performance exceeded expectations, with a 14% year-on-year revenue growth, significantly higher than the 6% growth in Q1 FY26 [11][12] - The jewelry business, particularly brands like Van Cleef & Arpels and Cartier, saw a 17% year-on-year increase, driving the overall revenue growth [11] - The recovery in sales across mainland China, Hong Kong, and Macau, which collectively grew by 7%, indicates a clear improvement in momentum [11][12] Strategy and Allocation Group - The volatility in overseas markets may be nearing its end, with recent fluctuations in global risk assets, particularly in the stock and commodity markets [14] - Domestic markets are still in a phase of adjustment, with significant declines observed, particularly in sectors like electric equipment and basic chemicals, indicating that short-term market adjustments are not yet over [15]