分析师：李怀军 证书编号：S1080510120001 电话：010-63197789 证券研究报告 点评报告 2025 年 3 月 11 日 晨会纪要 第一创业证券研究所 邮箱：lihuaijun@fcsc.com 证书编号：S1080524120001 电话：0755-23838533 邮箱：guoqiang@fcsc.com 核[心Ta观bl点e_：Summary] 一、策略和先进制造组： 胜宏科技发布 2025 年第一季度业绩预告，归属于上市公司股东的净利润 7.8 亿 元–9.8 亿元，比上年同期增长 70%–90%，扣除非经常性损益后的净利润 6.9 万 元–7.9 亿元，比上年同期增长 72%–97%。按公司 2024 年业绩预告，公司 2024 年全年归属于上市公司股东的净利润为 11.6 亿元，同比增长 72.9%，扣除非经常 性损益后的净利润 11.4 亿元，同比增长 71.5%。今年一季度的业绩相当于 2024 年全年的约 80%。业绩增长的主要推动因素是参与国际头部大客户新产品预研， 突破超高多层板、高阶 HDI 相结合的新技术，实现了 PTFE 等新材料的应用。快 速落地 AI 算力 ...

Group 1: Automotive Industry - The recent launch of the 2025 models of the Wanjie M9 and the new Wanjie M8 has shown strong pre-sale performance, with the M9 starting at 478,000 yuan for the five-seat version and 488,000 yuan for the six-seat version, and over 13,500 units reserved within 12 hours [3] - The Wanjie M8, slightly smaller than the M9, has a starting price of 368,000 yuan for the five-seat version and 378,000 yuan for the six-seat version, achieving 28,000 reservations in the same timeframe, indicating a positive sales outlook for high-end SUVs [3] - The introduction of advanced features such as high-precision solid-state LiDAR and satellite communication systems reflects the industry's trend towards enhanced intelligent driving capabilities, benefiting the sensor industry [3] Group 2: AI and Technology Sector - The launch of the AI product Manus by the domestic startup "Butterfly Effect" has generated significant interest, showcasing capabilities such as resume screening and stock analysis, leading to a surge in stock prices of related companies [4] - The rapid development of large models and applications in the AI sector is evident, with advancements like Alibaba's new 32B model, indicating a favorable environment for technology stocks [4] Group 3: Consumer Sector - Dechang Co., Ltd. reported a revenue of 2.987 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 40.3%, with a net profit of 302 million yuan, reflecting a growth of 14.5% [7] - The company operates in two main segments: small home appliances and electric motors, with the latter expected to see significant growth, having secured projects worth over 2.3 billion yuan from leading manufacturers [7][8] - Dechang is also venturing into humanoid robot development, collaborating to establish an innovation center in Guangdong, which expands its business scope and potential [7][8]

证券研究报告 点评报告 2025 年 3 月 7 日 晨会纪要 核[心Ta观bl点e_：Summary] 第一创业证券研究所 一、策略和先进制造组： 问界近期开启 2025 款问界 M9 和全新问界 M8 小定，两者均定位高端智能 SUV，据 鸿蒙智行消息预售表现较好，问界 2025 款 M9 预售价五座版 47.8 万起，六座版 48.8 万起。升级亮点：新增 3 颗高精度固态激光雷达、5 颗 4D 毫米波雷达、车载 卫星通信系统、智能隐私车窗（选装）、五座版零重力座椅（选装）预售 12 小时 小订超 13500 台。新车型问界 M8 尺寸略小于 M9，对标理想 L8，预售价五座版 36.8 万起，六座版 37.8 万起，全系标配华为 ADS 高阶智驾、空悬+CDC 减震、三元锂 电池，12 小时达 28000 台。从预定数据看，都是 35 万以上的车型还能有这样的 销售数据，表明销售的预期大概率会比较好。不过对比小米 SU7Ultra24 小时大定 超 1 万台，确定性会低一些。从配置上看，都基本标配 4 个激光雷达、5 颗 4D 毫 米波雷达，同样体现出智能驾驶传感器性能和数量升级的行业趋势，利好传感器 ...

Macroeconomic Overview - In the first two months of 2025, China's exports increased by 2.3% year-on-year in USD terms, down from 5.9% in 2024, while imports decreased by 8.4%, compared to a 1.1% increase in the previous year. The trade surplus reached 170.5 billion USD, up from 124.6 billion USD in the same period of 2024 [3][4] - In RMB terms, exports grew by 3.4%, down from 7.1%, and imports fell by 7.3%, compared to a 2.3% increase in 2024, indicating a depreciation of the RMB compared to the same period last year [3][4] - By country, exports to the US decreased from 4.9% in 2024 to 2.3% in 2025, while exports to the EU fell from 3.0% to 0.6%. Exports to ASEAN dropped from 12.0% to 5.7%, but exports to Japan improved from -3.5% to 0.7% [3][4] Industry Insights - The export growth rate for high-tech products increased from 4.8% in 2024 to 5.4% in 2025, while electromechanical products decreased from 7.5% to 4.2%. Notably, automotive exports fell from 15.5% to 2.5%, integrated circuit exports dropped from 17.4% to 11.9%, and home appliance exports decreased from 14.1% to 6.3%. Conversely, exports of automatic processing equipment and components rose from 9.9% to 10.5% [4] - In February 2025, the sales of excavators in China reached 19,270 units, a year-on-year increase of 52.8%, with domestic sales growing by 99.4% to 11,640 units. The overall sales for January-February 2025 totaled 31,782 units, up 27.2% year-on-year [17] - The launch of the GAC Toyota Platinum Smart 3X, priced between 109,800 and 159,800 RMB, is expected to influence the domestic automotive industry by prompting joint ventures to adopt similar strategies, leading to increased competition and potential price reductions in the market [16] Consumer Sector Analysis - JD Group reported a total revenue of 115.88 billion RMB (approximately 15.88 billion USD) for 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6.8%. The operating profit was 38.7 billion RMB (approximately 5.3 billion USD), with a profit margin of 3.3% [19] - The growth in revenue was primarily driven by the increase in sales of electronic products, which reached 174.1 billion RMB, a 15.83% increase, benefiting from national subsidy policies [19] - However, the sales expenses grew by 28.39%, indicating that the revenue growth heavily relied on marketing investments, which raised concerns about the sustainability of this growth model [20]

Macroeconomic Overview - The GDP growth target is set at around 5%, maintaining the same as last year but with lower difficulty due to a lower base from last year's Q4 growth of 5.4% [4] - The CPI target is set at 2%, down by 1 percentage point from last year, with challenges expected in achieving this target due to low January figures [4] - The urban surveyed unemployment rate is set at 5.5%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points from last year, indicating rising unemployment pressure [4] Fiscal and Monetary Policy - The fiscal deficit rate is planned at around 4%, an increase of 1 percentage point from the previous year, with a deficit scale of 5.66 trillion yuan, up by 1.6 trillion yuan [5] - Local government special bonds are proposed at 4.4 trillion yuan, and the issuance of ultra-long special government bonds is set at 1.3 trillion yuan, an increase of 300 billion yuan from last year [5] - The monetary policy aims to maintain liquidity and support the healthy development of the real estate and stock markets through timely adjustments [5] Industry Insights - The domestic lithium battery production is showing signs of recovery, with the top 20 battery manufacturers expected to see a combined production increase of over 60% year-on-year [8] - The construction machinery sector is also experiencing positive trends, with significant production increases reported for hydraulic products and excavators [8] - The improvement in the automotive and construction machinery sectors indicates a higher certainty of domestic economic recovery [8] Company Performance - Marubi Biotechnology has successfully implemented a focus on major products since 2020, leading to significant market recognition, particularly with its "Little Red Pen" eye cream series [11] - The online channel revenue for Marubi has surpassed 84% of total revenue, driven by the success of its major product strategy and effective e-commerce operations [12] - Recent data shows Marubi's GMV reached 180 million yuan in January, a year-on-year increase of 56%, indicating strong market competitiveness [12]

Group 1: New Energy Vehicle Market - In February, the wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 840,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 82%, but a month-on-month decrease of 5%. Cumulatively, from January to February, the total wholesale sales were 1.73 million units, up 49% year-on-year [3] - The retail forecast for new energy passenger vehicles in the same period is 1.344 million units, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 26.6% [3] - Domestic brands are the main drivers of growth in the new energy vehicle market, as Tesla's sales for January and February fell by 28.7% year-on-year [3] Group 2: Company Performance - Zhongke Shuguang - Zhongke Shuguang reported total revenue of 13.148 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 8.4%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.993 billion yuan, an increase of 4.1% [3] - The company’s gross margin improved by 5.46 percentage points to 27.34% in its IT equipment business, which accounts for 89% of revenue [3] - The company expects sales growth in 2025 due to its advantages in server liquid cooling and domestic computing chips, alongside the rapid application of domestic AI models [3] Group 3: Company Performance - Huifa Foods - Huifa Foods revised its 2024 profit forecast from a profit of 2.6 million to 3.7 million yuan to a loss of 13 million to 18 million yuan, marking a significant shift from profit to loss [6] - The company’s net profit is expected to decrease by 20.5159 million to 25.5159 million yuan, with a year-on-year decline of 272.97% to 339.49% [6] - The major reason for this adjustment is the failure of a project with a partner, which was supposed to receive 24 million yuan for operational expenses but did not proceed as planned [6]

Group 1: Automotive Industry Insights - Geely launched its advanced driving system "Qianli Haohan," featuring five levels of intelligent driving solutions, with the lowest level (H1) exceeding 100 TOPS in computing power, surpassing industry standards [3] - The H3 system includes urban NOA and memory parking capabilities, while the top-tier H9 solution supports L3 architecture with dual Thor U chips, marking a significant advancement in mass production capabilities for L3 intelligent driving [3] - The trend indicates that vehicles lacking high-speed NOA and automatic parking features will struggle to compete in the market, prompting other manufacturers to adopt L2-level intelligent driving functions [3] Group 2: Consumer Sector Analysis - Mixue Ice City’s IPO attracted significant attention, with approximately HKD 1.82 trillion in margin loans and an oversubscription rate of 5266 times, setting a new record for Hong Kong IPOs [6][7] - The company plans to issue 17.06 million H shares at an offering price of HKD 202.5, aiming to raise approximately HKD 3.455 billion, with a post-issue market capitalization of around HKD 76.355 billion [7] - From 2021 to 2023, Mixue Ice City reported revenues of CNY 10.4 billion, CNY 13.6 billion, and CNY 20.3 billion, with a revenue growth rate of 31.2% and 49.6% for 2022 to 2023, indicating strong financial performance [8]

Group 1: New Energy Vehicles - The core viewpoint indicates that major electric vehicle manufacturers reported better-than-expected sales for February, with total sales of 1.241 million units for the first two months of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of over 70% compared to 668,000 units in the same period of 2024 [3] - BYD announced cumulative sales of 623,400 electric vehicles from January to February, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 92.52% [3] - The sales growth rate suggests a higher probability of maintaining a 25% to 30% growth in electric vehicle sales for 2025, indicating potential investment opportunities in the new energy vehicle industry [3] Group 2: Real Estate Industry - The report highlights that the top 100 real estate companies in China acquired land worth a total of 199.86 billion yuan in the first two months of 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of 26.7% [3] - Major players such as China Resources Land, Poly Developments, and China Jinmao ranked at the top for new land value acquired [3] - The recovery in transaction data for second-hand and new homes in cities like Shenzhen and Shanghai, along with stable monthly price trends, suggests an increasing probability of stabilization in the real estate market, which may enhance confidence in China's economic rebound in 2025 [3]

证券研究报告 点评报告 2025 年 2 月 28 日 晨会纪要 第一创业证券研究所 分析师：李怀军 证书编号：S1080510120001 电话：010-63197789 证书编号：S1080524120001 电话：0755-23838533 邮箱：guoqiang@fcsc.com 核[心Ta观bl点e_：Summary] 一、策略和先进制造组： 中国光伏行业协会主办的"光伏行业 2024 年发展回顾与 2025 年形势展望研讨 会"2 月 27 日在北京召开。国家能源局新能源和可再生能源司新能源处处长 邢翼腾在会上指出，光伏制造业的内卷式竞争仍未从根本上解决，国家能源局 正在配合国家发改委、工信部等部门研究制定和完善政策措施。同时，"十五 五"可再生能源发展规划研究和思路起草正在加快推进，国家能源局将研究促 进新能源集成发展的政策措施，研究制定光伏电站升级改造和退役管理办法， 将指导和推动各地尽快研究出台适合本地新能源特点的电力市场实施细则，推 动出台促进分布式光伏就近开发利用的政策措施。目前美国英伟达的股价大 跌，国内 AI 的行情可能进入震荡阶段，市场可能会寻找新主题，该政策可能 会让新能源成为选 ...

证券研究报告 点评报告 2025 年 2 月 27 日 晨会纪要 第一创业证券研究所 分析师：李怀军 证书编号：S1080510120001 电话：010-63197789 核[心Ta观bl点e_：Summary] 一、策略和先进制造组： 三环集团公布了 2024 年度业绩快报，公司实现营业总收入 738,041.22 万元， 较上年同期增长 28.88%，实现归属于上市公司股东的净利润 219,412.65 万元， 较上年同期增长 38.78%。实现扣非后归属于上市公司股东的净利润 19.3 亿元， 同比增长 58.4%。其中第四季度实现营业收入 20 亿元，同比增长 23.3%，实现 归属于上市公司股东的净利润 5.9 亿元，同比增长 34.6%。总体来看，业绩表 现略超出 iFind 的一致预期。公司收入及利润同比增长的主要原因为：光通信、 消费电子等领域呈现恢复态势。其中公司 MLCC 产品不断实现技术和市场突破， 销售同比有较大幅度增长；受益于全球数据中心建设加快，公司光纤陶瓷插芯 及相关产品销售同比增长。由于公司是国内唯一能在高容 MLCC 方面对下游大 厂由规模出货的公司，其主要竞争对手为日本和 ...