证券研究报告 点评报告 2026 年 2 月 4 日 晨会纪要 风险提示： 对上述事件发展趋势的点评，存在由于经济增长、行业竞争、销售不及预期等 变化，而不如预期的可能。 证书编号：S1080525070001 电话：0755-23838239 邮箱：liuxiaoyu@fcsc.com 请务必阅读正文后免责条款部分 核[心Ta观bl点e_：Summary] 第一创业证券研究所 一、产业综合组： 全球最大的被动元件厂商日本村田制作所公布了最新的季度财报。2025年10-12 月的第三财季，主力产品电容营收增加 12.2%至 2391 亿日元，电感/EMI 滤波器 营收增加 9.5%至 564 亿日元。该季度电容订单 2681 亿日元，同比增长 29.4%。 订单额与销售额的比连续 5 个季度高于"1"。公司表示针对 MLCC 等电子元件 在 AI 服务器领域需求增长的情况，2026 年能否满足需求将成为重大课题。目前 公司尚未讨论涨价事宜，但认为应根据市场行情进行审慎考量。总体看，全球 被动元件的需求已明显加速，而国内被动元件公司的 PE 估值整体在 30~40 倍， 相对其它电子产业链估值偏低，因此我们看好 ...

证券研究报告 宏观研究 2026 年 2 月 2 日 1 月制造业 PMI 重回收缩区间至 49.3% 核[心T观ab点le：_Summary] 1 月中国制造业 PMI 为 49.3%，较上月回落 0.8 个百分点，由扩张转为收缩。其中， 大型企业为 50.3%，较上月回落 0.5 个百分点；中型企业为 48.7%，较上月回落 1.1 个百分点；小型企业为 47.4%，较上月回落 1.2 个百分点；大型企业与中小型 企业的景气度仍处于分化状态。 分析师：李怀军 1 月生产指数为 50.6%，较上月回落 1.1 个百分点。从需求上看，新订单为 49.2%， 较上月回落 1.6 个百分点；而新出口订单为 47.8%，较上月回落 1.2 个百分点。 可见，1 月制造业 PMI 中仍是供强需弱格局。1 月进口指数为 47.3%，较上月回升 0.3 个百分点；在手订单为 45.1%，较上月回落 0.9 个百分点；1 月供需关系（新 订单-产成品库存）指数为 0.6%，较上月回落 2 个百分点。可见，有效需求虽仍 不足。 1 月产成品库存指数为 48.6%，较上月回升 0.4 个百分点；1 月库存销售比（产成 品库存/ ...

6 晨会纪要 核[心Ta观bl点e_：Summary] 第一创业证券研究所 一、宏观经济组： 事件 1： 1 月 30 日（星期五）财政部公布 2025 年 1-12 月财政收支数据。 评论 1： 证券研究报告 点评报告 2026 年 2 月 2 日 1-12 月全国一般公共财政收入同比为-1.7%，较 1-11 月回落 2.5 个百分点，其 中中央回落 5.5 个百分点至-6.5%，地方回升 0.2 个百分点同比为 2.4%；而一般 公共财政支出同比为 1.0%，较 1-11 月回落 0.4 个百分点，其中中央回落 0.5 个百分点至 5.7%，地方回落 0.4 个百分点至 0.2%。地方财政支出近两个月的回 落速度较快，9 月为 2.4%。 政府性基金收入则同样表现不佳，1-12 月同比为-7%，较 1-11 月回落 2.1 个百 分点，其中地方国有土地使用权出让收入同比为-14.7%，较 1-11 月回落 4 个百 分点；1-12 月政府性基金支出增速为 11.3%，较 1-11 月回落 2.4 个百分点。 2025 年 1-12 月全国税收收入同比增速为 0.8%，较 1-11 月回落 1 个百分点， ...

Group 1: Company Performance - Shengyi Technology (生益科技) expects a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.25 to 3.45 billion yuan for 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 87% to 98%. Shengyi Electronics (生益电子) anticipates a net profit of approximately 1.44 to 1.51 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 331.03% to 355.88% [4] - Wei Ce Technology (伟测科技) forecasts a net profit of around 300 million yuan for 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of approximately 133.96%. The growth is driven by the penetration of AI and automotive electronics, as well as the recovery in consumer electronics [4] - Jindan Technology (金丹科技) projects a net profit of 96 to 138 million yuan for 2025, indicating a significant year-on-year growth of 156% to 268%. The growth is attributed to the successful launch of a 50,000-ton lactic acid expansion project and a decrease in procurement costs [10] - Hengfeng Paper (恒丰纸业) anticipates a net profit of 178 to 215 million yuan for 2025, a year-on-year increase of 54% to 86%. The growth is primarily due to the successful launch of a new production line and breakthroughs in overseas markets [11] - Jieya Co. (洁雅股份) expects a net profit of 72 to 88 million yuan for 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 270% to 352%. The growth is driven by increased orders from major international clients and an improved business structure [12] Group 2: Industry Trends - The European Automobile Manufacturers Association reported that pure electric vehicle sales in the EU surged by 51% year-on-year to 217,898 units in December 2025, surpassing gasoline vehicles for the first time. The market share reached 22.6% [7] - In December, China's newly installed photovoltaic capacity was 40 GW, a year-on-year decrease of 43% but an increase of 84% month-on-month. The cumulative installed capacity for the year reached 315 GW, a year-on-year increase of 14% [8] - The snack food sector, represented by Wancheng Group (万辰集团), is expected to see a net profit of 1.23 to 1.4 billion yuan for 2025, driven by the continuous growth of the bulk snack business and an increase in store numbers to approximately 19,000 [14]

Macro Economic Group - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain the federal funds rate in the range of 3.5-3.75%, aligning with market expectations, marking the first pause in rate cuts since September of the previous year [5] - The statement from the Fed changed its description of economic activity from "moderate expansion" to "steady expansion," indicating a more optimistic view on the labor market and inflation [5] - Powell emphasized that inflation risks have somewhat diminished and that the impact of tariffs on the economy is expected to dissipate by mid-2026 [6] Industry Comprehensive Group - Industrial Fulian (601138.SH) projected a net profit of 35.1 to 35.7 billion yuan for 2025, a year-on-year increase of 51% to 54%, driven by a significant rise in cloud server and AI server revenues [9] - Ailis (688578.SH) expects a revenue increase of 46.15% for 2025, with net profit projected at 2.15 billion yuan, supported by strong demand for its third-generation EGFR-TKI inhibitor [10] - True Love Home anticipates a net profit of 202 to 296 million yuan for 2025, a substantial increase attributed to one-time non-recurring gains from land compensation [14] - Yiming Foods forecasts a net profit of 47 to 55 million yuan for 2025, with significant growth driven by the recovery of its core milk bar business and expansion into B-end channels [15] - Aofei Entertainment expects a net profit of 6 to 8 million yuan for 2025, marking a turnaround due to improved cost control and recovery in overseas sales [16] Advanced Manufacturing Group - The pickup market sold 52,000 units in December 2025, a year-on-year increase of 8.8%, with total sales for the year reaching 589,000 units, up 11.8% [12] - Exports of pickups in December 2025 reached 28,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 12%, contributing significantly to overall market growth [12] - The new energy pickup segment saw a cumulative increase of 243% for the year, indicating strong growth potential driven by external demand and product upgrades [12]

Group 1: Industry Overview - The semiconductor industry is experiencing significant growth, with companies like 瑞芯微 (603893.SH) forecasting a revenue increase of 39.88% to 41.15% in 2025, reaching approximately 43.9 billion to 44.3 billion yuan, and a net profit increase of 71.97% to 85.42% [2] - The medical testing industry, represented by 九安医疗 (002432.SZ), anticipates a net profit of approximately 20.2 billion to 23.5 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 21.05% to 40.83% [3] - The advanced manufacturing sector, particularly in the lithium battery market, is expected to see a net profit increase of 424.29% to 529.15% in 2025, driven by strong demand in the energy storage field and recovery in the overall market [6] Group 2: Company-Specific Insights - 瑞芯微 (603893.SH) is expected to achieve a fourth-quarter revenue of approximately 12.65 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 29.6%, although this growth rate is lower than the first three quarters due to supply chain challenges [2] - 九安医疗 (002432.SZ) has established a strong brand presence in North America through its COVID-19 rapid testing kits, which has allowed it to maintain high sales volumes in respiratory disease rapid testing kits and home healthcare devices post-pandemic [3] - 先导智能's (not explicitly named in the summary) projected net profit of 15 billion to 18 billion yuan in 2025 indicates a robust recovery in the lithium battery sector, marking a transition from inventory cycles to capital expenditure cycles [6] Group 3: Market Trends - The domestic passenger car market in China is projected to have a total sales volume of 23.32 million units in 2025, showing a slight decline of 0.5% year-on-year, with significant regional disparities in sales performance [7] - The sales concentration is shifting towards core cities with high population density and active consumer demand, indicating that future growth in the automotive sector may be highly localized [7] - 百洋股份 anticipates a turnaround with a projected net profit of 41 to 52 million yuan in 2025, driven by improved feed business pricing and resilient export performance in food processing [9]

Group 1: AI Industry Insights - Baidu and Tencent are launching cash red envelope promotions to boost AI application usage during the Spring Festival, with Baidu offering 500 million yuan and Tencent 1 billion yuan in total rewards, potentially increasing AI application frequency across the industry [2] - The NAND flash memory prices have surged over 100% in Q1 2026, exceeding market expectations, as Samsung Electronics has completed supply contract negotiations, indicating a strong recovery in the storage industry [3] Group 2: Company Performance Forecasts - Sitway (688213.SH) expects 2025 revenue between 8.8 billion to 9.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 47% to 54%, with net profit projected at approximately 980 million to 1.03 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 149% to 162% [4] - Bailong Chuangyuan reported a 2025 revenue of 1.379 billion yuan, up 19.75% year-on-year, and a net profit of 366 million yuan, up 48.94%, driven by product structure optimization and high-margin product prioritization [10] - Qingsong Co. forecasts 2025 revenue of about 2.22 billion yuan, a 14% increase, with net profit expected to grow 1.4 to 2 times, attributed to a strategic focus on high-margin cosmetics ODM business [11] - Rongjie Health anticipates a net profit of 75 to 88 million yuan in 2025, representing a growth of 60% to 88%, driven by the strong performance of health products, particularly high-margin infrared therapy sauna rooms [12]

Group 1: Semiconductor Industry - Shengmei Shanghai (688082.SH) announced a voluntary disclosure of its 2025 operating performance and 2026 performance forecast, estimating 2025 revenue between RMB 668 million and RMB 688 million, representing a year-on-year growth of 18.91% to 22.47%. For 2026, the expected revenue is between RMB 8.2 billion and RMB 8.8 billion, indicating a further acceleration in growth to 22.7% to 28% year-on-year, reflecting the trend of domestic semiconductor expansion driven by AI demand [2] - Ruichuang Micro-Nano (688002.SH) projected a revenue exceeding RMB 6 billion for 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 40%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of approximately RMB 1.1 billion, up about 93%. The fourth quarter alone is expected to exceed RMB 2 billion in revenue, with a year-on-year growth of over 60% [3] Group 2: Military Industry - Zhongbing Hongjian (000519.SZ) reported a projected net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 34 million to RMB 46 million for 2025, recovering from a loss of approximately RMB 330 million the previous year. The fourth quarter is expected to show a net profit of about RMB 100 million, indicating a significant recovery in domestic military orders [3] Group 3: Advanced Manufacturing - The restart time for the Tiaowei Mine under CATL remains uncertain, keeping lithium prices at high levels. The production cost of lithium carbonate from integrated lithium mica mines has decreased to RMB 60,000 per ton. Short-term supply constraints are expected to support high lithium prices, while new supply may emerge in the second half of 2026 [6] Group 4: Solar Industry - Major Chinese photovoltaic companies are projected to remain in a loss-making state for 2025, with Tongwei Co. expecting a net profit of -RMB 9 billion to -RMB 10 billion, and JinkoSolar forecasting a net profit of -RMB 5.9 billion to -RMB 6.9 billion. The significant losses are attributed to supply-demand mismatches and rising costs, indicating the industry is likely in a "clearing-bottom" phase [7] Group 5: Consumer Sector - Chow Tai Fook reported a retail value growth of 17.8% year-on-year for FY26Q3, with mainland China growing by 16.9%. The core driver of performance is the optimization of product structure, with "priced jewelry" retail value increasing by 59.6%, now accounting for 40.1% of sales. The company is actively optimizing its store network, with a net reduction of over 200 stores [9]

Group 1: Company Performance - Demingli (001309.SZ) expects a net profit attributable to shareholders of 650 million to 800 million yuan for 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 85.42% to 128.21%. The net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses is projected to be 630 million to 780 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 108.13% to 157.68%. The fourth quarter net profit is estimated at 750 million yuan, showing over 11 times growth year-on-year. The rapid increase in storage prices since the fourth quarter is expected to continue driving high growth in the first half of the year [2] - Jin'an Guoji (002636) forecasts a net profit attributable to shareholders of 280 million to 360 million yuan for 2025, indicating a year-on-year increase of 655.53% to 871.40%. The net profit after excluding non-recurring items is expected to be 250 million to 320 million yuan, with a projected year-on-year growth of 4.5 times. The fourth quarter net profit is anticipated to be 135 million yuan, reflecting over 3.8 times growth year-on-year and nearly 1 time growth quarter-on-quarter. The price increase of ordinary copper-clad laminates is expected to cover the rise in upstream raw material costs, supporting continued growth in performance [3] Group 2: Industry Insights - In the advanced manufacturing sector, the domestic power battery installation volume is expected to redistribute in 2025. CATL leads with 333.57 GWh, capturing 43.42% market share, while BYD follows with 165.77 GWh and 21.58% market share. Both companies together hold 65% of the market, but their market shares have decreased by 1.67% and 3.17%, respectively. This shift reflects structural changes in the industry during rapid expansion, with second-tier manufacturers catching up in key performance indicators [6] - He Sheng New Materials anticipates a net profit of 152 million to 171 million yuan for 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 55% to 75%. The growth is driven by the home appliance appearance composite materials business, with no plans for expansion but rather a focus on supply chain management and cost reduction. The company is also making strides in AI chip development, with significant commercial progress expected in 2026 [8]

Macroeconomic Group - The Ministry of Finance announced a fiscal deficit rate of around 4% for 2025, with new government debt expected to reach 11.86 trillion yuan, an increase of 290 billion yuan from the previous year [4] - In 2026, measures will include the continuation of long-term special bonds for infrastructure and new projects, as well as optimizing personal consumption loan policies to lower credit costs for residents and service industry operators [4] - A national-level merger fund is being considered to address "involution" competition and promote a unified national market [5] Industry Comprehensive Group - Japan's Resonac announced a price increase of over 30% for all series of copper-clad laminates and adhesive films starting March 1, 2026, due to tight supply and rising costs [7] - Domestic companies like Dongwei Technology and Chipbond Microelectronics reported over 10-fold growth in Q4 2025, indicating a sustained high demand in the PCB industry [7] - Tongfu Microelectronics expects a net profit of 1.1 to 1.35 billion yuan for 2025, a year-on-year increase of 62.34% to 99.24%, driven by improved capacity utilization and management [8] Advanced Manufacturing Group - Inverter exports reached 839 million USD in December 2025, a year-on-year increase of 26%, with significant contributions from Europe and Africa [10] - The growth in inverter demand is linked to the need for grid stability and flexibility, particularly in regions with high renewable energy penetration [10] Consumer Group - The Ministry of Finance extended tax benefits for community services such as elderly care and childcare from January 1, 2026, to December 31, 2027, which will lower tax burdens for compliant operators [12] - China Duty Free Group plans to acquire DFS's Greater China business for up to 395 million USD, enhancing its brand resources and procurement power in the luxury goods sector [13]