证券研究报告 点评报告 2025 年 6 月 6 日 晨会纪要 核[心Ta观bl点e_：Summary] 第一创业证券研究所 一、产业综合组： 分析师：郭强 美股博通公司昨日公布第二财季调整后净营收 150 亿美元，超出分析师一致预期的 149.6 亿美元。公司预计第三财季营收大约 158 亿美元，同样略超分析师预期的 157.2 亿美元。同时博通预计 2025 财年 AI 芯片销售的增长势头将延续至 2026 财年，因为 大客户在加大 AI 推理开支。而非 AI 芯片方面，公司认为销售接近谷底，但将缓慢 地复苏。结合昨日意法半导体公布业绩是表示已经看到市场需求复苏迹象，业绩将 上升的表态，以及近期市场传言传德州仪器（TI）拟对部分产品线于 6 月 15 日进行 涨价，大概涉及 3300 多个料号，此次涨价平均涨幅在 10%以上，更有部分料号的涨 价幅度直逼 40%-70%。我们认为博通公司可以代表全球 HPC 芯片需求，意法可以代表 功率和电源管理类芯片需求，TI 可以代表模拟类芯片需求，三家公司都表示了较好 的需求展望，说明全球半导体行业的景气度仍在持续复苏，我们看好半导体行业相 关股票后续的估值修复。 ...

证券研究报告 点评报告 2025 年 6 月 5 日 晨会纪要 第一创业证券研究所 证书编号：S1080524120001 电话：0755-23838533 邮箱：guoqiang@fcsc.com 核[心Ta观bl点e_：Summary] 一、宏观经济组： 分析师：郭强 事件： 美国 ISM（供应商管理协会）6 月 3 日晚 10 点、6 月 4 日晚 10 点分别公布 5 月制造 业和非制造业 PMI 数据。 评论： 5 月美国制造业 PMI 为 48.5%，较上月回落 0.2 个百分点。从供给上看，5 月产出指 数为 45.4%，较上月回升 1.4 个百分点。从需求上看，5 月新订单为 47.6%，较上月 回升 0.4 个百分点；而 5 月新出口订单为 40.1%，较上月回落 3.0 个百分点；订单库 存为 47.1%，较上月回升 3.4 个百分点。可见，美国制造业出口最弱，供需虽有所回 升，但仍处于收缩区间。 5 月客户（产成品）库存指数为 44.5%，较上月回落 1.7 个百分点，创去年 4 月以来 新低；而 5 月自有（原材料）库存指数为 46.7%，较上月回落 4.1 个百分点，创去年 8 月以 ...

点评报告 2025 年 6 月 4 日 晨会纪要 核[心Ta观bl点e_：Summary] 一、产业综合组： 据美媒彭博社近日报道，美国政府正计划加大对中国科技行业的限制力度，拟将受 制裁中企的子公司一并纳入管控范围，要求与受制裁中国科技公司控股的子公司开 展交易时，必须事先获得美国政府的许可证。这项规定最快可能于 6 月对外公布。 我们认为日内瓦关税战税率下调后，美国对中国的打压进入第二轮，希望继续用"卡 脖子"的政策来延缓中国的发展或让中国让步。由于国内在科技领域的进步较快， 在这样的打压下，反而能给国内科技产业带来更多的市场准入、试错与迭代机会， 反而更能促进国内科技产业的崛起，因此我们看好国内科技产业的长期增长前景。 证券研究报告 根据媒体微集网报道，继全球碳化硅龙头 Wolfspeed 传将声请破产后，亚洲车用半 导体销量第一的日本半导体厂商瑞萨也有意放弃生产电动车用碳化硅业务。目前全 球碳化硅市场正经历剧烈的价格战，在市占排名第一的 Wolfspeed 和亚洲第一的瑞 萨因为亏损退出碳化硅市场时，国内以天岳先进为代表的厂商却实现了盈利，而且 全球车用碳化硅的主要市场和客户都在中国，在剧烈价格战后， ...

Group 1: Strategy and Advanced Manufacturing - The U.S. Department of Commerce has reportedly suspended the sale of multiple products and technology licenses to COMAC for the development of the C919 aircraft, including jet engines, as a response to China's recent restrictions on key mineral exports to the U.S. This policy is likely to have a significant negative impact on the performance of China's large aircraft industry chain companies in the coming years [2] - According to the supplier conference held by COMAC in March 2025, the expected output of C919 aircraft is 50 units, with 30 units anticipated to be delivered. This volume could notably affect the revenue of domestic large aircraft industry chain companies [2] - The domestic engine CJ-1000A has completed its development phase, but commercial mass delivery is expected to require an additional 1 to 2 years for validation and preparation, which means it is unlikely to fill the gap left by the U.S. ban [2] Group 2: Consumer Sector - Yiwu's import and export performance from January to April reached 231.31 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.1%. Exports accounted for 203.24 billion yuan (+15.3%), while imports were 28.07 billion yuan (+13.5%) [5] - In the export model, market procurement trade exports amounted to 166.01 billion yuan (+16.1%), representing over 80% of total exports. Notably, exports to regions such as Latin America, the EU, and ASEAN showed significant growth [5] - The breakdown of imports and exports to Africa, Latin America, ASEAN, and the EU during the same period were 38.84 billion, 38.21 billion, 23.47 billion, and 22.88 billion yuan, with growth rates of 8.7%, 18.3%, 12.3%, and 15.5%, respectively. Trade with "Belt and Road" countries reached 154.1 billion yuan (+14.2%), accounting for 66.6% of total trade [5] - Labor-intensive products exported amounted to 84.52 billion yuan (+16.3%), with plastic products and clothing exports increasing by 20% and 19.9%, respectively. Electromechanical product exports were 75.09 billion yuan (+12.2%), with home appliances and auto parts exports growing by 15.8% and 31.4% [5]

Group 1: Company Performance - Nvidia reported Q1 revenue of $44.1 billion, a 69% year-over-year increase, exceeding expectations of $43.29 billion. Data center revenue was $39.1 billion, up 73% year-over-year, slightly below the market expectation of $39.22 billion. Given the restrictions on H20 sales, data center revenue is likely to exceed expectations [2] - The company expects Q2 revenue to be $45 billion, with a fluctuation of 2%, aligning closely with the market median expectation of $45.5 billion. The adjusted gross margin for Q1 was 61%, a decrease of 17.9 percentage points year-over-year, while the gross margin excluding H20 impact was 71.3%, surpassing the market expectation of 71% [2] Group 2: Industry Developments - Siemens' EDA division is reportedly suspending support and services for mainland China, based on a notification from the U.S. Department of Commerce. This could potentially stimulate investor interest in domestic EDA software companies such as Huada Jiutian and Kailun Electronics if the news is confirmed [3] - Recent developments in the domestic duty-free market have injected new vitality into consumer spending. The first city duty-free store in Changsha opened on May 22, covering approximately 2,000 square meters and expected to start trial operations by September. Similar initiatives are underway in Guangzhou and Chengdu, aiming to attract foot traffic and respond to national policies encouraging consumption [5] - The upcoming Dragon Boat Festival and Children's Day holidays are expected to diversify the tourism market. Data from Ctrip indicates that local and surrounding travel accounted for 50% of bookings during the Dragon Boat Festival, with family travel orders making up 35%. The search interest for family-friendly hotels increased by 45% year-over-year [6]

Macro Economic Overview - In April, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size in China reached 21,170.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.4%, with a 0.6 percentage point recovery compared to the first quarter [3] - The manufacturing sector saw a year-on-year profit growth of 7.6% from January to April, with April's growth at 10.7%, both showing a recovery of 1 percentage point from March [3] - The profit margin for operating income was 4.9%, up by 0.2 percentage points from the first quarter, while the inventory of finished products decreased by 3.9% year-on-year [3] Industry Performance - The industries with the highest year-on-year profit growth include railway, shipbuilding, aerospace, and other transportation equipment manufacturing, as well as non-ferrous metals and electrical machinery manufacturing [3] - Conversely, industries with the lowest growth include coal mining, furniture manufacturing, textile and apparel, chemical fiber, and paper products [3] - Specific profit growth rates for various industries in April and the first four months are detailed in the report, highlighting significant variances across sectors [4] Company-Specific Insights - Hesai Technology reported Q1 2025 revenue of 530 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 46.3%, with a net loss of 17.5 million yuan, narrowing by 84% [6] - The gross margin for Robotaxi and ADAS businesses reached 41.7%, with laser radar deliveries increasing by 231.3% year-on-year [6] - Xiaomi Group achieved Q1 2025 revenue of 111.3 billion yuan, a 47.4% year-on-year increase, with net profit exceeding 10.9 billion yuan, marking over 60% growth [7][8] - Meituan's Q1 2025 revenue reached 86.56 billion yuan, up 18.1% year-on-year, with adjusted net profit increasing by 46.2% [10]

Group 1: Automotive Industry - The report highlights significant declines in domestic A-share and Hong Kong automotive stocks, with companies like BYD and Geely experiencing drops exceeding 8% due to concerns over profitability following a nearly 20% price cut on models priced below 200,000 yuan [1] - The chairman of Great Wall Motors suggested that the automotive industry is facing challenges similar to those of Evergrande, prompting calls for national audits [1] - Despite a slowdown in BYD's sales growth in April, the company is leveraging strong overseas export performance to mitigate domestic pricing pressures, indicating a competitive strategy to capture market share [1] - The report notes that the domestic new energy vehicle (NEV) market is at a critical stage of industry restructuring, with only 15% of global passenger vehicle sales currently attributed to NEVs, suggesting significant growth potential in the long term [1] Group 2: Gaming Industry - The National Press and Publication Administration approved 130 domestic and 14 imported games in May 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of over 30% and reaching the highest monthly approval rate in three years [4] - Cumulatively, 610 domestic and 44 imported game licenses have been issued in 2025, showing significant growth compared to the same period in 2024 [4] - Notable performances from gaming companies include Tencent's "Honor of Kings," which saw a 71% year-on-year revenue increase in April, and DotDot Interactive's "Kingshot," which experienced a 209% month-on-month revenue growth [4] - The gaming market is exhibiting a sustained upward trend, indicating a robust recovery and growth potential within the industry [4]

Group 1: AI Industry Insights - Oracle is set to purchase $40 billion worth of Nvidia chips, primarily the B200 model, for OpenAI's new data center in the U.S., indicating strong global demand for AI [2] - Recent feedback from Zhongji Xuchuang suggests that optical modules remain exempt from tariffs amid the U.S.-China trade war, reinforcing a positive outlook for the AI industry chain and export sectors [2] Group 2: Consumer Sector Developments - 52toys, a leading player in China's IP toy sector, has submitted its IPO prospectus, showcasing a product matrix that includes nearly 2,800 SKUs and an average of over 500 new products launched annually [5] - The company's revenue is projected to reach 630 million yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 30.6%, with IP licensing revenue growing by 42% and contributing 64% to total revenue [5] - Internationally, 52toys has seen explosive growth, with overseas revenue increasing from 35.37 million yuan in 2022 to 147.4 million yuan in 2024, achieving a compound annual growth rate of 104.13% [5] - The Japanese market's GMV is expected to triple year-on-year, while the Thai market's GMV is anticipated to quadruple, indicating significant market expansion [5]

Group 1: Automotive Industry - The core viewpoint indicates that the retail market for narrow passenger cars in May is estimated to be around 1.85 million units, representing a year-on-year growth of 8.5% and a month-on-month increase of 5.4%. Among these, the retail sales of new energy vehicles are expected to reach 980,000 units, showing a year-on-year growth of 22.5% with a penetration rate of approximately 52.9% [2] - The overall discount rate in the automotive market in mid-May is about 24.8%. Despite a decline in year-on-year growth rates for both overall passenger car retail and new energy vehicle retail compared to April, the month-on-month performance indicates strong domestic automotive consumption, suggesting that annual sales may exceed expectations [2] Group 2: Hospitality Industry - The report on Shoulu Hotel's Q1 2025 results shows that the company achieved operating revenue of 1.77 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.3%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 140 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.4%. The net profit after deducting non-recurring items was 110 million yuan, up 12.0% year-on-year [5] - The company accelerated its store expansion, opening 300 new hotels in Q1, which is a year-on-year increase of 46.3%, achieving 20% of its annual target of 1,500 new openings. Among these, 192 new standard management hotels and 90 new mid-to-high-end hotels were opened [5] - The franchise model has deepened, with the proportion of franchised stores increasing to 91.6%, and 99% of new openings being franchise-based, highlighting a further emphasis on asset-light operations. By the end of 2024, the total number of members reached 197 million, a year-on-year increase of 30.8%, indicating a strengthening of repurchase rates and brand loyalty [5]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended," indicating a positive outlook for the industry fundamentals and expected outperformance against the benchmark index [29]. Core Insights - Wolfspeed, a leading global supplier of SiC substrates, is reportedly preparing to file for bankruptcy, which has led to a significant drop in its stock price by over 50% [3][4]. - In contrast, Tianyue Advanced, a domestic SiC substrate company, is projected to achieve approximately $240 million in revenue for 2024, representing a 41% year-on-year growth, and has turned a profit for the first time through its main business [8][9]. - The report highlights that domestic companies have gained a significant cost advantage over Wolfspeed, with Tianyue Advanced's gross margin improving from -5.8% to 24% from 2022 to 2025, while Wolfspeed's gross margin has declined from 34.1% to -17.1% during the same period [9][18]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Wolfspeed's Financial Struggles - Wolfspeed's revenue for the first three quarters of fiscal 2025 was $560 million, down approximately 8% year-on-year, with a net loss of about $950 million, marking a 37.7% increase in losses compared to the previous year [3][4]. - The company's total assets were reported at $7.57 billion, with a net asset value of only $210 million, indicating a cumulative loss of approximately $3.87 billion [5][6]. Section 2: Domestic Competitors' Performance - Tianyue Advanced's revenue for 2024 is expected to be around $240 million, with a net profit of 179 million RMB, marking a significant improvement in profitability [8]. - The report emphasizes that domestic companies have made substantial advancements in technology, with several firms showcasing 12-inch SiC substrates in 2024, indicating that they have caught up with international competitors [14][17]. Section 3: Market Dynamics and Price Competition - The global sales scale of the N-type/conductive SiC substrate industry is projected to be $1.04 billion in 2024, a decrease of about 9% year-on-year, with Wolfspeed holding a market share of approximately 33.7% [18][19]. - If Wolfspeed files for bankruptcy, it is expected to alleviate the current price competition in the SiC substrate market, benefiting domestic manufacturers significantly [18]. Section 4: Long-term Demand Outlook - The report forecasts a sustained long-term growth in demand for SiC chips, primarily driven by the electric vehicle sector, which accounts for about 70% of the downstream market, and the renewable energy sector, which exceeds 10% [23][25].